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The New Regional Order
in the Middle East
Changes and Challenges
Series Editor
Timothy M. Shaw
Visiting Professor
University of Massachusetts Boston
Boston, MA, USA
Emeritus Professor
University of London
London, UK
The global political economy is in flux as a series of cumulative crises
impacts its organization and governance. The IPE series has tracked
its development in both analysis and structure over the last three dec-
ades. It has always had a concentration on the global South. Now the
South increasingly challenges the North as the centre of development,
also reflected in a growing number of submissions and publications on
indebted Eurozone economies in Southern Europe. An indispensable
resource for scholars and researchers, the series examines a variety of cap-
italisms and connections by focusing on emerging economies, companies
and sectors, debates and policies. It informs diverse policy communities
as the established trans-Atlantic North declines and ‘the rest’, especially
the BRICS, rise.
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Introduction
In recent decades, millions of people across the Middle East and North
Africa region have shared the same grievances, including: inequality, lack
of social mobility, outdated state—citizen relationships and a general
lack of hope in their political systems (to name only few). These griev-
ances have driven widespread and ongoing change across the region.
A chain of dramatic and historical events has taken place in the region
since 2010–2011. This book is a collective effort to shed light on some
of the key events, the underlying reasons behind these and the future
challenges for the region. The scope of change and the pace of events
are both broad and fast, which makes it virtually impossible to capture all
trends. That is why contributors of this book have picked up on impor-
tant themes that are also closest to their fields of expertise. The idea of
this book was born in 2015 at a Gulf Research Meeting in Cambridge,
where Dr. Neil Quilliam and myself co-authored a paper on the key fac-
tors for strategic changes in the region. The book includes six chapters.
Chapter 1 reviews a number of key socio-economic challenges that
the region faces. Many of the socio-economic challenges that the region
has struggled with in recent decades were highlighted by the chain of
political uprisings across the region. This chapter explores how changes
in a number of social factors—including identities, social and individual
values, the definition of the social roles for different genders and state–
citizen relations—have contributed to the recent political uprisings across
the region. The degree to which such changes have taken root differs
between different countries; nevertheless, the change is widespread
v
vi INTRODUCTION
and visible in every part of the region. The chapter also sets out how
these challenges are compounded by the context of the so-called water–
food-energy nexus—a set of critical environmental challenges facing the
region.
Chapter 2 reviews the changes in and the challenges associated with
oil wealth management in the Gulf Cooperation Council. It sets out how
oil income has fuelled the region’s growth and development and helped
the ruling families to establish and maintain their rule. It then looks into
the role of oil wealth in the social contracts in place across the region,
and how low oil prices have prompted debates between policymakers
and citizens over the sustainability of oil-driven economic growth mod-
els and their impact on social contracts across the region. The chapter
illustrates how mounting pressure to reduce dependency on oil by diver-
sifying the economy and instituting structural reforms has brought about
an increased repurposing of assets that traditionally have been managed
through Sovereign Wealth Funds towards domestic and regional needs.
While Sovereign Wealth Funds remain active in international markets,
they are being readjusted to ensure sustainability in terms of returns,
income and operational capabilities.
Chapter 3 analyses how and why the GCC developed as a regional
organisation and security community in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.
It explores the factors that favoured closer cooperation among the six
ruling families in the Gulf and examines the nature of the cooperative
mechanisms that gradually evolved after 1981. Progress was far from
seamless or linear as tensions complicated, undermined, and in some
cases held back cooperation. The chapter argues that the shock of the
Arab Spring in 2011 and the differing regional responses to the upheaval
not only widened these fissures in Gulf politics, but also altered the com-
mon threat perception that had effectively constituted a consensual base-
line in regional considerations of security up to that point. The chapter
goes on to look into how the recasting of the dynamics of Gulf secu-
rity after the blockade of Qatar heralded the rise of a multipolarity of
participants in regional security structures that for decades had been the
preserve of first the British and then the US as external guarantors of
stability.
Chapter 4 provides a review of the history of Iran’s nuclear ambi-
tions, the nuclear negotiations, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA) and its impacts at domestic, regional and international levels.
Iran’s nuclear programme began in the 1960s under the government
INTRODUCTION vii
of the country’s last monarch and was restarted by the Islamic Republic
after the end of Iran–Iraq War. Although, it was never proven that Iran’s
nuclear programme had an active military dimension, Iran’s regional bal-
ance of power struggle, the experience of eight devastating years of war
with Iraq, sharing borders with a nuclear nation (Pakistan) and having
multiple domestic security challenges led the international community to
conclude that it would have made perfect sense for the Islamic Republic
to aspire nuclear military capability. The nuclear negotiations that con-
cluded with the JCPOA became a milestone in Iran–US relations since
the Islamic Revolution and a significant diplomatic achievement for all
parties involved. The unilateral withdrawal of Trump’s Administration
from the JCPOA, however, has revived uncertainties about the future of
Iran–US relations. This chapter analyses the impact of the Iran nuclear
deal and the US withdrawal from it at the domestic, regional and inter-
national levels.
Chapter 5 addresses the question whether China’s developing eco-
nomic relationship, which is promoted through the Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), will lead it to play a more muscular political, diplo-
matic and military role in the near future. The Gulf region is undergo-
ing a series of profound changes at national, regional and international
levels. It is at a pivotal moment in its history when the balance of
power amongst external powers is transitioning from a predominantly
US-dominated order to a multipolar one in which global powers, such
as China, and regional powers, such as Russia, Turkey, India and Brazil
are beginning to shape and influence the region. This chapter argues that
since the Obama presidency (2008–2016), the US has strongly signalled
that it is no longer willing to play the role of sole external security pro-
vider and, in doing so, has left a vacuum. It examines the exact nature of
the US change in policy, its wider implications for the region and, at the
same time, the deepening of relations between China and the Gulf.
Chapter 6 builds on the analysis presented in Chapter 5 by exploring,
in more detail, how Russia, India, Turkey and Brazil are beginning to
shape and influence the political and economic landscape in the Middle
East and North Africa. It begins with an assessment of Russia’s bid to
capitalise on the immediate opportunities afforded to it by Washington’s
pause. The chapter then compares and contrasts Russia’s role in the
region with that of other key external powers influencing and shaping
the region. The chapter provides analysis on India’s strategic move to
strengthen relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia. It also argues that
viii INTRODUCTION
Sara Bazoobandi
Contents
ix
Abbreviations
xi
xii ABBREVIATIONS
Fig. 1.1 Arab Youth Survey: How strongly do you agree or disagree
with the statement? (Source Arab Youth Survey [2016],
available at: http://www.arabyouthsurvey.com/
pdf/2016-AYS-Presentation-EN_12042016100316.pdf) 4
Fig. 1.2 University attendance in the Middle East (Source Catriona
Davies, “Mideast Women Beat Men in Education, Lose
Out at Work”, CNN, 6 June 2012. http://www.cnn.
com/2012/06/01/world/meast/middle-east-women-
education/) 17
Fig. 1.3 Global desalination capacities by region (Source CNN 2019) 19
xiii
CHAPTER 1
Sara Bazoobandi
Introduction
Middle Eastern societies have been facing fundamental social, economic
and political challenges in recent decades. Many of these challenges were
highlighted by the chain of political uprisings across the region that
began in 2011. These challenges have arisen partly from changes in a
number of social factors. Identities, social and individual values, the defi-
nition of the social roles for different genders and state–citizen relations
have all begun to change across the region. The degree to which such
changes have taken root differs between different countries; nevertheless,
the change is widespread and visible in every part of the region. Such
changes have presented societies with new challenges for which neither
policymakers nor the public have solutions to offer. This chapter will
S. Bazoobandi (*)
Middle East Risk Consulting, Hamburg, Germany
Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council within the Global Business
and Economics Program and Global Energy Center, Washington, DC, USA
Nonresident Fellow at Arab Gulf State Institute in Washington,
Washington, DC, USA
Shift of Identities
Similar to the rest of the world, multiple aspects of globalisation have
affected the Middle East North Africa region. The way in which citizens
across the region define themselves has been influenced by their experi-
ence of living in a globalised world. The Arab Youth Survey1 is an inter-
esting source to look at empirical evidence to confirm regional trends.
Although the sample size of this survey cannot be said to represent the
entire population of the region (it includes about 200 interviewees per
country), it does tell a clear story about the mindset of the current youth
cohort in the Middle East. According to the survey, over the past years,
a high number of the young believe that globalisation has had a negative
impact on their local cultural heritage. The survey also shows that a high
number of the participants want their leaders to do more to improve
their personal freedoms, human rights and rights of women.2 The Arab
uprisings were to a great extent a result of the people’s desire for such
improvements. Globalisation has affected the ways in which individu-
als define their identities, values and aspiration across the world and the
MENA region has been no exception in this sense. Desire for protection
of human rights and personal freedoms is now an integral part of peo-
ple’s identity, which goes beyond the existing definitions associated with
the region’s national flags, of being Arab or Muslim.
One of the challenges facing Middle Eastern societies currently is
related to the core identities of the region’s citizens in today’s globalised
world. Such identities are often in conflict with one another. This is not
limited to the sectarian identities but also includes existing political and
social identities. For many years, the political apparatus in many Middle
Eastern countries has created identities that have been dictated to the
1 THE MIDDLE EAST NORTH AFRICA SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES 3
Bigger countries in the region have much bigger challenges to deal with and
are no longer focused on the regional issues. Simple socio-economic issues
such as education, employment and building one’s life through the ranks
of the society are the main priorities for their young citizens. The previous
regional sentiment towards the Arab neighbours that was boosted by the
concept of Arab solidarity has begun to fade and new identities started to
emerge across the region. Today, people, particularly the youth, define them-
selves through a rather complex combination of identities. The younger gen-
erations no longer consider themselves only as Arabs or Muslims. They also
describe themselves as Asians, Africans or Mediterranean. Such a shift of iden-
tities has had significant economic consequences as well. Economic relations
have diversified beyond the regional partners. Over the past years, regional
economies have been building p artnerships with Africa, Russia and China.
͞&ŽůůŽǁŝŶŐ ƚŚĞ ƌĂď ^ƉƌŝŶŐ͕ / ĨĞĞů ƚŚĞ ƌĂď ǁŽƌůĚ ŝƐ ďĞƩĞƌ Žī͟
ůů ŽƵŶƚƌŝĞƐΎ ;^ŚŽǁŝŶŐ й ŐƌĞĞͿ
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ϯϴ ϯϲ
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ϮϬϭϮ ϮϬϭϯ ϮϬϭϰ ϮϬϭϱ ϮϬϭϲ
Fig. 1.1 Arab Youth Survey: How strongly do you agree or disagree with
the statement? (Source Arab Youth Survey [2016], available at: http://www.
arabyouthsurvey.com/pdf/2016-AYS-Presentation-EN_12042016100316.pdf)
*Arab Youth Survey includes sample data from 16 Arab countries: GCC, Jordan,
Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia
1 THE MIDDLE EAST NORTH AFRICA SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHALLENGES 5
and access to (at least some) information are the key factors for success.
Moreover, serious security concerns throughout the region, open con-
flicts in many countries that often, directly or indirectly, affected other
nations have influenced the direction of change in the region. As a result,
at the regional level, there is a vacuum of trust and communication at
highest political level. Whilst political leaders have been alienating their
counterparts by pushing for their own agendas, restrictions to the right
to travel, widespread state-sponsored media, regional security and ideo-
logical conflicts have also divided people at the grassroots level (Fig. 1.1).
[1469] Joh. Salisb. Ep. cxlv. (Giles, vol. i. pp. 223, 224).
[1490] Contin. Becc. a. 1159 (Delisle, Rob. Torigni, vol. ii. pp.
173, 174).
[1495] Ibid.
[1512] The treaty is printed in Lyttelton’s Hen. II., vol. iv. pp.
173, 174. It has no date; we have to get that from Rob. Torigni—
May 1160. The terms of the treaty are summarized by Rog.
Howden (Stubbs), vol. i. p. 218, who places it a year too late. He
also introduces a second betrothal, between Richard and Adela,
the second daughter of Louis and Constance. But the treaty
printed by Lyttelton says nothing of this; and if it be the treaty
mentioned by Rob. Torigni the clause is impossible, for Adela
was not born till the autumn of 1160.
[1528] Ibid.
[1532] E. Grim (ib. vol. ii.), p. 366. Anon. I. (ib. vol. iv.), p. 13.
1156–1161.
All Henry’s endeavours for the material and political revival of his
kingdom had been regulated thus far by one simple, definite
principle:—the restoration of the state of things which had existed
under his grandfather. In his own eyes and in those of his subjects
the duty which lay before him at his accession, and which he had
faithfully and successfully fulfilled, was to take up the work of
government and administration not at the point where he found it, but
at the point where it had been left by Henry I. and Roger of
Salisbury: to pull down and sweep away all the innovations and
irregularities with which their work had been overlaid during the last
nineteen years, and bring the old foundations to light once more, that
they might receive a legitimate superstructure planned upon their
own lines and built upon their own principles. In law, in finance, in
general administration, there was one universal standard of
reference:—“the time of my grandfather King Henry.”
But there was one side of the national revival, and that the most
important of all, to which this standard could not apply. The religious
and intellectual movement which had begun under Henry I., far from
coming to a standstill at his death, had gone on gathering energy
and strength during the years of anarchy till it had become the one
truly living power in the land, the power which in the end placed
Henry II. on his throne. It looked to find in him a friend, a fellow-
worker, a protector perhaps; but it had no need to go back to a stage
which it had long since overpassed and make a new departure
thence under the guidance of a king who was almost its own
creation. At the very moment of Henry’s accession, the hopes of the
English Church were raised to their highest pitch by the elevation of
an Englishman to the Papal chair. Nicolas Breakspear was the only
man of English birth who ever attained that lofty seat; and the
adventures which brought him thither, so far as they can be made
out from two somewhat contradictory accounts, form a romantic
chapter in the clerical history of the time. Nicolas was the son of a
poor English clerk[1538] at Langley, a little township belonging to the
abbey of S. Alban’s.[1539] The father retired into the abbey,[1540]
leaving his boy, according to one version of the story, too poor to go
to school and too young and ignorant to earn his bread; he therefore
came every day to get a dole at the abbey-gate, till his father grew
ashamed and bade him come no more; whereupon the lad, “blushing
either to dig or to beg in his own country,” made his way across the
sea.[1541] Another version asserts that Nicolas, being “a youth of
graceful appearance, but somewhat lacking in clerkly acquirements,”
sued to the abbot of S. Alban’s for admission as a monk; the abbot
examined him, found him insufficiently instructed, and dismissed him
with a gentle admonition: “Wait awhile, my son, and go to school that
you may become better fitted for the cloister.”[1542] Whether stung by
the abbot’s hint or by his father’s reproofs, young Nicolas found his
way to Paris and into its schools, where he worked so hard that he
out-did all his fellow-students.[1543] But the life there wearied him as
it had wearied Thomas Becket; he rambled on across Gaul into
Provence, and there found hospitality in the Austin priory of S.
Rufus. His graceful figure, pleasant face, sensible talk and obliging
temper so charmed the brotherhood that they grew eager to keep
him in their midst,[1544] and on their persuasion he joined the order.
[1545] It seems that he was even made superior of the house, but the
canons afterwards regretted having set a stranger to rule over them,
and after persecuting him in various ways appealed to the Pope to
get rid of him. The Pope—Eugene III.—at first refused to hear them;
but on second consideration he decided to give them over to their
own evil devices and offer their rejected superior a more agreeable
post in his own court.[1546] Nicolas, who had already twice visited
Rome, proceeded thither a third time and was made cardinal[1547]
and bishop of Albano.[1548] Shortly afterwards he was appointed
legate to Norway and Denmark, an office which he filled with
prudence and energy during some years.[1549] Returning to Rome
about 1150, he apparently acted as secretary to Eugene III. until the
latter’s death in July 1153.[1550] The next Pope, Anastasius III.,
reigned only sixteen months, and dying on December 2, 1154, was
succeeded by the bishop of Albano, who took the name of Adrian IV.
[1551]
[1551] Will. Newb. as above (p. 111). Date from Cod. Vatic.,
Baronius, Annales (Pagi), vol. xix. p. 77.