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221024_Mirae_Asset_Sekuritas_Indonesia_BBCA_9_M22_result_review
221024_Mirae_Asset_Sekuritas_Indonesia_BBCA_9_M22_result_review
9M22 result Lower provision expense and higher margins boost earnings growth
In 3Q22, BBCA posted a net profit of IDR10.9tr (+9.2% QoQ; +14.5% YoY), mainly driven by much lower
provision expense. Cumulatively in 9M22, the bank posted a net profit of IDR29.0tr (+24.8% YoY). The
result is in line with our estimate but above the consensus’ at 76.5% and 78.8% run rates against FY22F
estimates, respectively (5-year average: 73.4%).
Interest income growth accelerated to 6.8% QoQ in 3Q22 (2Q22: +5.0% QoQ) as benchmark rate increased
that drove up yield, especially from placement in BI and government bonds. Moreover, strong loan growth
(+12.6% YoY) and higher USD loan yield (2Q22: 3.1%; 3Q22: 3.6%) also contributed to rising interest income
despite stable IDR loan yield (2Q22 and 3Q22: 7.3%). Meanwhile, CoF remained stable as the bank
maintained its deposit rates. NIM improved significantly from 5.0% in 2Q22 to 5.4% in 3Q22. Cumulatively,
the bank posted strong net interest income growth of 9.3% YoY in 9M22, driven by strong interest income
(+5.7% YoY) and lower interest expense (-15.5% YoY) with NIM at 5.1%. The bank raised its NIM guidance to
5.2-5.3% for FY22 (previously 5.1%), driven by the expected higher NIM at 5.6% in 4Q22.
Non-interest income grew by 7.8% YoY in 9M22, derived primarily from loan and deposit-related fees as
loan, deposit, and transaction volume increased. Meanwhile, opex also increased by 9.4% due to the
accrued employee benefit in 3Q22.
Provision expense was only IDR191bn in 3Q22 (1Q22: IDR2.8tr; 2Q22: IDR909bn), which resulted in much
lower provision expense of IDR3.9tr in 9M22 (-48.8% YoY). Nevertheless, the bank has indicated the
provision expense to elevate slightly in 4Q22 vs 3Q22. We expect its CoC to be at 1.0% (BBCA guidance: 0.8-
1.0%) in FY22 (FY21: 1.6%; 9M22: 0.8%), which will be among the key net profit growth drivers in FY22.
Although gross NPL ratio remained steady at 2.2% QoQ (3Q21: 2.4%; 2Q22: 2.2%), LAR ratio continued to
improve to 11.7% in 3Q22 (3Q21: 17.1%; 2Q22: 12.3%). NPL and LAR coverage ratios reached 247.9% and
49.9%, respectively. Restructured loan has come down to only 10.4% of the total loan (3Q21: 13.3%).
Loan growth came in at 12.6% YoY as of 3Q22, decelerating from 13.8% YoY as of 2Q22, dragged by
corporate loan (-1.3% QoQ) although commercial & SME and consumer loans increased by 3.0% and 2.8%
QoQ, respectively. Despite the QoQ decline, corporate loan remained the highest YoY loan growth driver
at 13.4%, v.s. commercial & SME and consumer loans at 12.6% YoY and 10.4%, respectively. The bank
maintains its loan growth guidance at 10% in FY22, which is lower than our forecast at 12%.
Outlook Set to grow more aggresively
With benchmark rate having increased by 125bps this year, we expect BBCA to post higher NIM, especially
coming from higher yield of placements in BI and government bonds. BBCA sees little reason to raise
lending rates by now as the bank is still able to keep CoF low due to abundant liquidity and favorable
deposit mix. We think loan growth will be the main agenda to drive earnings growth next year, given low
LDR at 63.3%. This is in line with the bank’s guidance of 12% YoY loan growth in FY23. The bank seems
confident that economic recovery will continue to drive up loan demand, despite many challenges (high
inflation, rising interest rates, global recession, among others).
Recommendation Maintain Hold with a TP of IDR9,000 (based on FY23F P/B target of 4.5x)
Although we like BBCA with its superb result and strong fundamental, we maintain our Hold
recommendation with a TP of IDR9,000 due to limited upside potential. Downside risks to our call are
slower loan growth and worsening asset quality. Meanwhile, key upside risk is stronger earnings growth.
Key data
(D-1yr=100) JCI BBCA Share Price (10/21/22, IDR) 8,650 Market Cap (IDRtr) 1,066.3
120
Consensus NP (22F, IDRbn) 37,345 Shares Outstanding (mn) 123.275.1
115
110 NP Mirae Asset vs. consensus (22F, %) 1.4 Free Float (%) 42.4
105 EPS Growth (22F, %) 20.5 Beta (Adjusted, 24M) 0.9
100
95 P/E (22F, x) 28.2 52-Week Low (IDR) 7,000
90 Industry P/E (22F, x) 15.5 52-Week High (IDR) 8,875
10/21 1/22 4/22 7/22 10/22
Benchmark P/E (22F, x) 15.1
(IDRtr) Loan (L) Loan growth (R) (%, YoY) (IDRtr) (%, YoY)
Deposit (L) Deposit growth (R)
1000 20 1500 25
800 15 1200 20
600 10 900 15
400 5 600 10
200 0 300 5
0 -5 0 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
(IDRbn) PPOP (L) Net income (L) (%) (IDRbn) Interest income (L) (%, YoY)
PPOP margin (R) Net margin (R) Interest expense (L)
75,000 100 Interest income growth (R)
80,000 30
Interest expense growth (R)
60,000 80
20
60,000
45,000 60 10
40,000
30,000 40 0
20,000
15,000 20 -10
0 0 0 -20
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
10 24 3.5
8 22 3.2
6 20 2.9
4 18 2.6
2 16 2.3
0 14 2.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
(%,YoY) Corporate Commercial & SME Consumer (%,YoY) Current account Savings account Time deposit
40
30
20 30
10 20
0 10
-10 0
-20 -10
3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 3Q19 3Q20 3Q21 3Q22 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 3Q19 3Q20 3Q21 3Q22
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
2.5
8
2.0
6
1.5
4
1.0
2
0.5
0 0.0
3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 3Q19 3Q20 3Q21 3Q22 3Q16 3Q17 3Q18 3Q19 3Q20 3Q21 3Q22
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
100
15 4.5
75
10 4.0
50
5 3.5
25
0 0
3.0
3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22
10/17 10/18 10/19 10/20 10/21 10/22
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Total loan 593,585 605,874 636,987 637,131 675,362 681,983 1.0 12.6 605,874 681,983 12.6
Current accounts 248,237 263,375 285,640 301,097 304,808 318,274 4.4 20.8 263,375 318,274 20.8
Saving accounts 448,838 458,424 481,373 497,061 513,003 512,174 -0.2 11.7 458,424 512,174 11.7
Time deposits 198,163 201,936 208,937 199,602 193,231 195,081 1.0 -3.4 201,936 195,081 -3.4
Total deposits 895,238 923,736 975,949 997,761 1,011,043 1,025,528 1.4 11.0 923,736 1,025,528 11.0
CASA ratio 77.9 78.1 78.6 80.0 80.9 81.0 0.1 2.8 78.1 81.0 2.8
LDR* 62.4 62.0 62.0 60.5 63.5 63.3 -0.2 1.3 62.0 63.3 1.3
NPL* 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.2 0.0 -0.2 2.4 2.2 -0.2
NPL coverage* 230.6 230.2 240.0 244.8 246.4 247.9 1.5 17.7 230.2 247.9 17.7
NIM* 5.3 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 5.4 0.4 0.2 5.2 5.1 -0.1
Note: *Bank only figures
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Appendix 1
Disclosures
As of the publication date, PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia and/or its affiliates do not have any special interest with the subject company and do not own 1% or
more of the subject company's shares outstanding.
Analyst Certification
Opinions expressed in this publication about the subject securities and companies accurately reflect the personal views of the Analysts primarily
responsible for this report. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject
companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. No part of the compensation of the Analysts was,
is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report but, like all employees of PT Mirae Asset
Sekuritas Indonesia, the Analysts receive compensation that is impacted by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business
units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading and private client division. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do
not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia except as otherwise stated
herein.
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