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 vi Contents

10 CORRELATION AND REGRESSION

10-1 Correlation 444
442
10-2 Regression 462
10-3 Prediction Intervals and Variation 474
10-4 Multiple Regression 481
10-5 Dummy Variables and Logistic Regression 489

11 GOODNESS-OF-FIT AND CONTINGENCY TABLES

11-1 Goodness-of-Fit 503
502
11-2 Contingency Tables 514

12 ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
12-1 One-Way ANOVA 533
531
12-2 Two-Way ANOVA 547

13 NONPARAMETRIC TESTS
13-1 Basics of Nonparametric Tests 562
560
13-2 Sign Test 564
13-3 Wilcoxon Signed-Ranks Test for Matched Pairs 575
13-4 Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test for Two Independent Samples 581
13-5 Kruskal-Wallis Test for Three or More Samples 586
13-6 Rank Correlation 592

14 SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
14-1 Life Tables 604
603
14-2 Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis 614

APPENDIX A TABLES 625

APPENDIX B DATA SETS 638
APPENDIX C WEBSITES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY OF BOOKS 645
APPENDIX D ANSWERS TO ODD-NUMBERED SECTION EXERCISES 646
(and all Quick Quizzes, all Review Exercises, and all Cumulative Review Exercises)

Credits 683
Index 685

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 6 03/11/16 4:02 PM

 PREFACE

Statistics permeates nearly every aspect of our lives, and its role has become partic-
ularly important in the biological, life, medical, and health sciences. From opinion
polls to clinical trials in medicine and analysis of big data from health applications,
statistics influences and shapes the world around us. Biostatistics for the Health and
Biological Sciences forges the relationship between statistics and our world through
extensive use of a wide variety of real applications that bring life to theory and
methods.

Goals of This Second Edition

■ Incorporate the latest and best methods used by professional statisticians.
■ Include features that address all of the recommendations included in the Guide-
lines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) as recom-
mended by the American Statistical Association.
■ Provide an abundance of new and interesting data sets, examples, and exercises.
■ Foster personal growth of students through critical thinking, use of technology,
collaborative work, and development of communication skills.
■ Enhance teaching and learning with the most extensive and best set of supple-
ments and digital resources.

Audience , Prerequisites
Biostatistics for the Health and Biological Sciences is written for students major-
ing in the biological and health sciences, and it is designed for a wide variety of
students taking their first statistics course. Algebra is used minimally, and calculus
is not required. It is recommended that students have completed at least an elemen-
tary algebra course or that students should learn the relevant algebra components
through an integrated or co-requisite course. In many cases, underlying theory is
included, but this book does not require the mathematical rigor more appropriate for
mathematics majors.

Hallmark Features
Great care has been taken to ensure that each chapter of Biostatistics for the Health
and Biological Sciences will help students understand the concepts presented. The
following features are designed to help meet that objective.

Real Data
Hundreds of hours have been devoted to finding data that are real, meaningful, and
interesting to students. Fully 87% of the examples are based on real data, and 89% of
the exercises are based on real data. Some exercises refer to the 18 data sets listed in
Appendix B, and 12 of those data sets are new to this edition. Exercises requiring use
of the Appendix B data sets are located toward the end of each exercise set and are
marked with a special data set icon .
Real data sets are included throughout the book to provide relevant and interesting
real-world statistical applications, including biometric security, body measurements,
brain sizes and IQ scores, and data from births. Appendix B includes descriptions of

vii

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 7 03/11/16 4:02 PM

 viii Preface

the 18 data sets that can be downloaded from the companion website www.pearson-
highered.com/triola, the author maintained www.TriolaStats.com and MyStatLab.
TriolaStats.com includes downloadable data sets in formats for technologies
including Excel, Minitab, JMP, SPSS, and TI@83>84 Plus calculators. The data
sets are also included in the free Statdisk software, which is also available on the
website.

Readability
Great care, enthusiasm, and passion have been devoted to creating a book that is readable,
understandable, interesting, and relevant. Students pursuing any major in the biological,
life, medical, or health fields are sure to find applications related to their future work.

Website
This textbook is supported by www.TriolaStats.com, and www.pearsonhighered.com/
triola which are continually updated to provide the latest digital resources, including:
■ Statdisk: A free, robust statistical software package designed for this book.
■ Downloadable Appendix B data sets in a variety of technology formats.
■ Downloadable textbook supplements including Glossary of Statistical Terms and
Formulas and Tables.
■ Online instructional videos created specifically for this book that provide step-
by-step technology instructions.
■ Triola Blog, which highlights current applications of statistics, statistics in the
news, and online resources.

Chapter Features
Chapter Opening Features
■ Chapters begin with a Chapter Problem that uses real data and motivates the
chapter material.
■ Chapter Objectives provide a summary of key learning goals for each section in
the chapter.
Exercises
Many exercises require the interpretation of results. Great care has been taken to
ensure their usefulness, relevance, and accuracy. Exercises are arranged in order of
increasing difficulty, and they begin with Basic Skills and Concepts. Most sections
include additional Beyond the Basics exercises that address more difficult concepts or
require a stronger mathematical background. In a few cases, these exercises introduce
a new concept.
End-of-Chapter Features
■ Chapter Quick Quiz provides review questions that require brief answers.
■ Review Exercises offer practice on the chapter concepts and procedures.
■ Cumulative Review Exercises reinforce earlier material.
■ Technology Project provides an activity that can be used with a variety of
technologies.
■ From Data to Decision is a capstone problem that requires critical thinking and
writing.
■ Cooperative Group Activities encourage active learning in groups.

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 8 03/11/16 4:02 PM

 Preface ix

Other Features
Margin Essays There are 57 margin essays designed to highlight real-world topics
and foster student interest.
Flowcharts The text includes flowcharts that simplify and clarify more complex con-
cepts and procedures. Animated versions of the text’s flowcharts are available within
MyStatLab and MathXL.
Quick-Reference Endpapers Tables A-2 and A-3 (the normal and t distributions) are
reproduced on the rear inside cover pages.
Detachable Formula and Table Card This insert, organized by chapter, gives students
a quick reference for studying, or for use when taking tests (if allowed by the instruc-
tor). It also includes the most commonly used tables. This is also available for download
at www.TriolaStats.com, www.pearsonhighered.com/triola and in MyStatLab.
Technology Integration
As in the preceding edition, there are many displays of screens from technology through-
out the book, and some exercises are based on displayed results from technology. Where
appropriate, sections include a reference to an online Tech Center subsection that in-
cludes detailed instructions for Statdisk, Minitab®, Excel®, StatCrunch, or a TI@83>84
Plus® calculator. (Throughout this text, “TI-83>84 Plus” is used to identify a TI-83 Plus
or TI-84 Plus calculator). The end-of-chapter features include a Technology Project.
The Statdisk statistical software package is designed specifically for this textbook
and contains all Appendix B data sets. Statdisk is free to users of this book, and it can
be downloaded at www.statdisk.org.

Changes in This Edition

New Features
Chapter Objectives provide a summary of key learning goals for each section in the
chapter.
Larger Data Sets: Some of the data sets in Appendix B are much larger than in the
previous edition. It is no longer practical to print all of the Appendix B data sets in this
book, so the data sets are described in Appendix B, and they can be downloaded at
www.TriolaStats.com, www.pearsonhighered.com/triola, and MyStatLab.
New Content: New examples, new exercises, and Chapter Problems provide relevant
and interesting real-world statistical applications, including biometric security, drug
testing, gender selection, and analyzing ultrasound images.

Number New to This Edition Use Real Data

Exercises 1600 85% 89%
Examples 200 84% 87%

Major Organization Changes

All Chapters
■ New Chapter Objectives: All chapters now begin with a list of key learning goals
for that chapter. Chapter Objectives replaces the former Overview numbered sec-
tions. The first numbered section of each chapter now covers a major topic.
Chapter 1
■ New Section 1-1: Statistical and Critical Thinking
■ New Subsection 1-3, Part 2: Big Data and Missing Data: Too Much and Not Enough

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 9 03/11/16 4:02 PM

 x Preface

Chapters 2 and 3
■ Chapter Partitioned: Chapter 2 (Describing, Exploring, and Comparing Data)
from the first edition has been partitioned into Chapter 2 (Summarizing and Graph-
ing) and Chapter 3 (Statistics for Describing, Exploring, and Comparing Data).
■ New Section 2-4: Scatterplots, Correlation, and Regression This new section
includes scatterplots in Part 1, the linear correlation coefficient r in Part 2, and
linear regression in Part 3. These additions are intended to greatly facilitate cover-
age for those professors who prefer some early coverage of correlation and regres-
sion concepts. Chapter 10 includes these topics discussed with much greater detail.
Chapter 4
■ Combined Sections: Section 3-3 (Addition Rule) and Section 3-4 (Multiplication
Rule) from the first edition are now combined into one section: 4-2 (Addition
Rule and Multiplication Rule).
■ New Subsection 4-3, Part 3: Bayes’ Theorem
Chapter 5
■ Combined Sections: Section 4-3 (Binomial Probability Distributions) and
Section 4-4 (Mean, Variance, and Standard Deviation for the Binomial Distribu-
tion) from the first edition are now combined into one section: 5-2 (Binomial
Probability Distributions).
Chapter 6
■ Switched Sections: Section 6-5 (Assessing Normality) now precedes Section 6-6
(Normal as Approximation to Binomial).

Chapter 7
■ Combined Sections: Sections 6-4 (Estimating a Population Mean: s Known)
and 6-5 (Estimating a Population Mean: s Not Known) from the first edition
have been combined into one section: 7-2 (Estimating a Population Mean). The
coverage of the s known case has been substantially reduced and it is now lim-
ited to Part 2 of Section 7-2.
■ New Section 7-4: Bootstrapping: Using Technology for Estimates
Chapter 8
■ Combined Sections: Sections 7-4 (Testing a Claim About a Population Mean: s
Known) and 7-5 (Testing a Claim About a Population Mean: s Not Known) from
the first edition have been combined into one section: 8-3 (Testing a Claim About
a Mean). Coverage of the s known case has been substantially reduced and it is
now limited to Part 2 of Section 8-3.
Chapter 10
■ New Section: 10-5 Dummy Variables and Logistic Regression
Chapter 11
■ New Subsection: Section 11-2, Part 2 Test of Homogeneity, Fisher’s Exact Test,
and McNemar’s Test for Matched Pairs
Chapter 14
■ Combined Sections: Section 13-2 (Elements of a Life Table) and Section 13-3
(Applications of Life Tables) from the first edition have been combined into
Section 14-1 (Life Tables).
■ New Section: 14-2 Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 10 03/11/16 4:02 PM

 Preface xi

Flexible Syllabus
This book’s organization reflects the preferences of most statistics instructors, but
there are two common variations:
■ Early Coverage of Correlation and Regression: Some instructors prefer to
cover the basics of correlation and regression early in the course. Section 2-4
now includes basic concepts of scatterplots, correlation, and regression without
the use of formulas and greater depth found in Sections 10-1 (Correlation) and
10-2 (Regression).
■ Minimum Probability: Some instructors prefer extensive coverage of probability,
while others prefer to include only basic concepts. Instructors preferring mini-
mum coverage can include Section 4-1 while skipping the remaining sections of
Chapter 4, as they are not essential for the chapters that follow. Many instructors
prefer to cover the fundamentals of probability along with the basics of the addi-
tion rule and multiplication rule (Section 4-2).

GAISE
This book reflects recommendations from the American Statistical Association and
its Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE). Those
guidelines suggest the following objectives and strategies.
1. Emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking: Each section
exercise set begins with Statistical Literacy and Critical Thinking exercises.
Many of the book’s exercises are designed to encourage statistical thinking
rather than the blind use of mechanical procedures.
2. Use real data: 87% of the examples and 89% of the exercises use real data.
3. Stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures:
Instead of seeking simple numerical answers, most exercises and examples
involve conceptual understanding through questions that encourage practical
interpretations of results. Also, each chapter includes a From Data to Decision
project.
4. Foster active learning in the classroom: Each chapter ends with several
Cooperative Group Activities.
5. Use technology for developing conceptual understanding and analyzing data:
Computer software displays are included throughout the book. Special Tech
Center subsections are available online, and they include instruction for using
the software. Each chapter includes a Technology Project. When there are dis-
crepancies between answers based on tables and answers based on technology,
Appendix D provides both answers. The websites www.TriolaStats.com and
www.pearsonhighered.com/triola as well as MyStatLab include free text-specific
software (Statdisk), data sets formatted for several different technologies, and
instructional videos for technologies.
6. Use assessments to improve and evaluate student learning: Assessment tools
include an abundance of section exercises, Chapter Quick Quizzes, Review
Exercises, Cumulative Review Exercises, Technology Projects, From Data to
Decision projects, and Cooperative Group Activities.

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 11 03/11/16 4:02 PM

 xii Preface

Acknowledgments
We would like to thank the many statistics professors and students who have contrib-
uted to the success of this book. We thank the reviewers for their suggestions for this
second edition:
James Baldone, Virginia College
Naomi Brownstein, Florida State University
Christina Caruso, University of Guelph
Erica A. Corbett, Southeastern Oklahoma State University
Xiangming Fang, East Carolina University
Phil Gona, UMASS Boston
Sharon Homan, University of North Texas
Jackie Milton, Boston University
Joe Pick, Palm Beach State College
Steve Rigdon, St. Louis University
Brian Smith, Black Hills State University
Mahbobeh Vezvaei, Kent State University
David Zeitler, Grand Valley State University
We also thank Paul Lorczak, Joseph Pick and Erica Corbett for their help in
checking the accuracy of the text and answers.

Marc Triola
Mario Triola
Jason Roy
September 2016

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 12 03/11/16 4:02 PM

 Resources for Success
MyStatLab® Online Course for Biostatistics: For
the Biological and Health Sciences, 2e by Marc M. Triola,
Mario F. Triola and Jason Roy (access code required)
MyStatLab is available to accompany Pearson’s market leading text offerings. To give
students a consistent tone, voice, and teaching method each text’s flavor and ap-
proach is tightly integrated throughout the accompanying MyStatLab course, making
learning the material as seamless as possible.

MathXL coverage - MathXL is a market-leading

text-specific autograded homework system built
to improve student learning outcomes.

Enhanced video program to meet Introductory

Statistics needs:
• New! Tech-Specific Video Tutorials - These
short, topical videos address how to use varying
technologies to complete exercises.
• Updated! Section Lecture Videos - Watch author,
Marty Triola, work through examples and elaborate
on key objectives of the chapter.

Real-World Data Examples - Help

understand how statistics applies to
everyday life through the extensive
current, real-world data examples and
exercises provided throughout the text.

www.mystatlab.com
xiii

A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 13 04/11/16 1:29 PM

 xiv Preface
Supplements
For the Student
Student’s Solutions Manual, by James Lapp (Colorado
Mesa University) provides detailed, worked-out solutions
to all odd-numbered text exercises.
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-403909-1; ISBN-10: 0-13-403909-2)
Student Workbook for the Triola Statistics Series, by
Laura lossi (Broward College) offers additional exam-
ples, concept exercises, and vocabulary exercises for each
chapter.
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-446423-7; ISBN 10: 0-13-446423-0)
The following technology manuals, available in MyStatLab,
include instructions, examples from the main text, and
interpretations to complement those given in the text.
Excel Student Laboratory Manual and Workbook
(Download Only), by Laurel Chiappetta (University of
Pittsburgh).
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-446427-5; ISBN-10: 0-13-446427-3)
MINITAB Student Laboratory Manual and Work-
book (Download Only), by Mario F. Triola.
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-446418-3; ISBN-10: 0-13-446418-4)
Graphing Calculator Manual for the TI-83 Plus,
TI-84 Plus, TI-84 Plus C and TI-84 Plus CE (Down-
load Only), by Kathleen McLaughlin (University of
Connecticut) & Dorothy Wakefield (University of Con-
necticut Health Center).
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-446414-5; ISBN 10: 0-13-446414-1)
Statdisk Student Laboratory Manual and Workbook
(Download Only), by Mario F. Triola. These files are
available to instructors and students through the Triola Sta-
tistics Series website, www.pearsonhighered.com/triola,
and MyStatLab.
SPSS Student Laboratory Manual and Workbook
(Download Only), by James J. Ball (Indiana State Uni-
versity). These files are available to instructors and stu-
dents through the Triola Statistics Series website, www.
pearsonhighered.com/triola, and MyStatLab.
For the Instructor
Instructor’s Solutions Manual (Download Only), by
James Lapp (Colorado Mesa University) contains so-
lutions to all the exercises. These files are available to
qualified instructors through Pearson Education’s on-
line catalog at www.pearsonhighered.com/irc or within
MyStatLab.
A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 14
Insider’s Guide to Teaching with the Triola Statistics
Series, by Mario F. Triola, contains sample syllabi and
tips for incorporating projects, as well as lesson overviews,
extra examples, minimum outcome objectives, and recom-
mended assignments for each chapter.
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-446425-1; ISBN-10: 0-13-446425-7)
TestGen® Computerized Test Bank (www.pearsoned.
com/testgen) enables instructors to build, edit, print, and
administer tests using a computerized bank of questions
developed to cover all the objectives of the text. TestGen is
algorithmically based, allowing instructors to create mul-
tiple but equivalent versions of the same question or test
with the click of a button. Instructors can also modify test
bank questions or add new questions. The software and tes-
tbank are available for download from Pearson Education’s
online catalog at www.pearsonhighered.com. A test bank
(Download Only) is also available from the online catalog.
Learning Catalytics: Learning Catalytics is a web-based
engagement and assessment tool. As a “bring-your-own-
device” direct response system, Learning Catalytics offers
a diverse library of dynamic question types that allow stu-
dents to interact with and think critically about statistical
concepts. As a real-time resource, instructors can take ad-
vantage of critical teaching moments both in the classroom
or through assignable and gradeable homework.
Technology Resources
The following resources can be found on the Triola Statistics
Series website (http://www.pearsonhighered.com/triola), the
author maintained www.triolastats.com, and MyStatLab
■ Appendix B data sets formatted for Minitab, SPSS,
SAS, Excel, JMP, and as text files. Additionally, these
data sets are available as an APP for the TI-83>84
Plus calculators, and supplemental programs for the
TI-83>84 Plus calculator are also available.
■ Statdisk statistical software instructions for down-
load. New features include the ability to directly use
lists of data instead of requiring the use of their sum-
mary statistics.
■ Extra data sets, an index of applications, and a sym-
bols table.
Video resources have been expanded, updated and now
supplement most sections of the book, with many topics
presented by the author. The videos aim to support both
instructors and students through lecture, reinforcing sta-
tistical basics through technology, and applying concepts:
■ Section Lecture Videos
03/11/16 4:02 PM

■ New! Technology Video Tutorials - These short,
topical videos address how to use Excel, Statdisk,
and the TI graphing calculator to complete exercises.
■ StatTalk Videos: 24 Conceptual Videos to Help
You Actually Understand Statistics. Fun-loving
statistician Andrew Vickers takes to the streets of
Brooklyn, NY, to demonstrate important statistical
concepts through interesting stories and real-life
events. These fun and engaging videos will help
students actually understand statistical concepts.
Available with an instructors user guide and assess-
ment questions.
MyStatLab™ Online Course (access code required)
MyStatLab is a course management system that delivers
proven results in helping individual students succeed.
■ MyStatLab can be successfully implemented in
any environment—lab-based, hybrid, fully online,
traditional—and demonstrates the quantifiable differ-
ence that integrated usage has on student retention,
subsequent success, and overall achievement.
■ MyStatLab’s comprehensive online gradebook au-
tomatically tracks students’ results on tests, quizzes,
homework, and in the study plan. Instructors can use
the gradebook to provide positive feedback or inter-
vene if students have trouble. Gradebook data can be
easily exported to a variety of spreadsheet programs,
such as Microsoft Excel. You can determine which
points of data you want to export, and then analyze
the results to determine success.
MyStatLab provides engaging experiences that personal-
ize, stimulate, and measure learning for each student. In
addition to the resources below, each course includes a full
interactive online version of the accompanying textbook.
■ Tutorial Exercises with Multimedia Learning Aids:
The homework and practice exercises in MyStatLab
align with the exercises in the textbook, and they
regenerate algorithmically to give students unlim-
ited opportunity for practice and mastery. Exercises
offer immediate helpful feedback, guided solutions,
sample problems, animations, videos, and eText clips
for extra help at point-of-use.
■ Getting Ready for Statistics: A library of questions
now appears within each MyStatLab course to offer
the developmental math topics students need for the
course. These can be assigned as a prerequisite to
other assignments, if desired.
■ Conceptual Question Library: In addition to algo-
rithmically regenerated questions that are aligned with
A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 15
Preface xv
your textbook, there is a library of 1000 Conceptual
Questions available in the assessment manager that re-
quire students to apply their statistical understanding.
■ StatCrunch™: MyStatLab integrates the web-based
statistical software, StatCrunch, within the online as-
sessment platform so that students can easily analyze
data sets from exercises and the text. In addition,
MyStatLab includes access to www.StatCrunch.com,
a website where users can access more than 15,000
shared data sets, conduct online surveys, perform
complex analyses using the powerful statistical
software, and generate compelling reports.
■ Statistical Software Support: Knowing that students
often use external statistical software, we make it
easy to copy our data sets, both from the ebook and
the MyStatLab questions, into software such as
StatCrunch, Minitab, Excel, and more. Students have
access to a variety of support tools—Technology
Tutorial Videos, Technology Study Cards, and Tech-
nology Manuals for select titles—to learn how to
effectively use statistical software.
MathXL® for Statistics Online Course (access code
required)
MathXL® is the homework and assessment engine that
runs MyStatLab. (MyStatLab is MathXL plus a learning
management system.)
With MathXL for Statistics, instructors can:
■ Create, edit, and assign online homework and tests
using algorithmically generated exercises correlated
at the objective level to the textbook.
■ Create and assign their own online exercises and
import TestGen tests for added flexibility.
■ Maintain records of all student work, tracked in
MathXL’s online gradebook.
With MathXL for Statistics, students can:
■ Take chapter tests in MathXL and receive personal-
ized study plans and>or personalized homework
assignments based on their test results.
■ Use the study plan and>or the homework to link
directly to tutorial exercises for the objectives they
need to study.
■ Students can also access supplemental animations
and video clips directly from selected exercises.
■ Knowing that students often use external statistical
software, we make it easy to copy our data sets, both
from the ebook and the MyStatLab questions, into
software like StatCrunch™, Minitab, Excel, and more.
03/11/16 4:02 PM
 xvi Preface
MathXL for Statistics is available to qualified adopters.
For more information, visit our website at www.mathxl
.com, or contact your Pearson representative.
StatCrunch™
StatCrunch is powerful, web-based statistical software
that allows users to perform complex analyses, share data
sets, and generate compelling reports. A vibrant online
community offers more than 15,000 data sets for students
to analyze.
■■ Collect. Users can upload their own data to ­StatCrunch
or search a large library of publicly shared data sets,
spanning almost any topic of interest. Also, an online
survey tool allows users to quickly collect data via
web-based surveys.
■■ Crunch. A full range of numerical and graphical
methods allow users to analyze and gain insights
from any data set. Interactive graphics help users
understand statistical concepts and are available for
export to enrich reports with visual representations
of data.
■■ Communicate. Reporting options help users create a
wide variety of visually appealing representations of
their data.
A01_TRIO9015_02_SE_FM_i-xvi.indd 16
Full access to StatCrunch is available with ­MyStatLab
and StatCrunch is available by itself to qualified adopt-
ers. StatCrunch Mobile is now available to access from
your mobile device. For more information, visit our web-
site at www.StatCrunch.com, or contact your Pearson
­representative.
Minitab® 17 and Minitab Express™ make learning sta-
tistics easy and provide students with a skill-set that’s
in demand in today’s data driven workforce. Bundling
Minitab® software with educational materials ensures stu-
dents have access to the software they need in the class-
room, around campus, and at home. And having 12 month
versions of Minitab 17 and Minitab Express available
ensures students can use the software for the duration of
their course.
ISBN 13: 978-0-13-445640-9
ISBN 10: 0-13-445640-8 (Access Card only; not sold as
stand alone.)
JMP Student Edition, Version 12 is an easy-to-use, stream-
lined version of JMP desktop statistical discovery software
from SAS Institute, Inc., and is available for bundling with
the text.
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-467979-2 ISBN-10: 0-13-467979-2)
11/9/16 3:00 PM
 1 Introduction
to Statistics
1-1 Statistical and Critical
Thinking

1-2 Types of Data

1-3 Collecting Sample Data

CHAPTER
PROBLEM Survey Question: Do You Need Caffeine to Start Up Your Brain for the Day?

Surveys provide data that enable us to improve products or
services. Surveys guide political candidates, shape business
practices, identify effective medical treatments, and affect
many aspects of our lives. Surveys give us insight into the
opinions and behaviors of others. As an example, the National
Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is part
of a research program that studies the health and nutrition of
thousands of adults and children in the United States.
Let’s consider one USA Today survey in which respondents
were asked if they need caffeine to start up their brain for the
day. Among 2,006 respondents, 74% said that they did need the
caffeine. Figure 1-1 includes graphs that depict these results.

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 2 CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Statistics

FIGURE 1-1(a) Survey Results

People Needing Caffeine to Start People Not Needing Caffeine to Start

Up Brain for the Day Up Brain for the Day

FIGURE 1-1(b) Survey Results

The survey results suggest that people overwhelmingly need caffeine to start up their brains
for the day. The graphs in Figure 1-1 visually depict the survey results. One of the most impor-
tant objectives of this book is to encourage the use of critical thinking so that such results are
not blindly accepted. We might question whether the survey results are valid. Who conducted
the survey? How were respondents selected? Do the graphs in Figure 1-1 depict the results
well, or are those graphs somehow misleading?
The survey results presented here have major flaws that are among the most common, so
they are especially important to recognize. Here are brief descriptions of each of the major flaws:

Flaw 1: Misleading Graphs The bar chart in Figure 1-1(a) is very deceptive. By using a
vertical scale that does not start at zero, the difference between the two percentages is grossly
exaggerated. Figure 1-1(a) makes it appear that approximately eight times as many people
need the caffeine. However, with 74% needing caffeine and 26% not needing caffeine, the
ratio is actually about 3:1, rather than the 8:1 ratio that is suggested by the graph.
The illustration in Figure 1-1(b) is also deceptive. Again, the difference between the actual
response rates of 74% (needing caffeine) and 26% (not needing caffeine) is a difference that
is grossly distorted. The picture graph (or “pictograph”) in Figure 1-1(b) makes it appear that

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 Chapter Objectives 3

the ratio of people needing caffeine to people not needing caffeine is roughly 9:1 instead of
the correct ratio of about 3:1. (Objects with area or volume can distort perceptions because
they can be drawn to be disproportionately larger or smaller than the data indicate.) Decep-
tive graphs are discussed in more detail in Section 2-3, but we see here that the illustrations in
Figure 1-1 grossly exaggerate the number of people needing caffeine.

Flaw 2: Bad Sampling Method The aforementioned survey responses are from a USA
Today survey of Internet users. The survey question was posted on a website and Internet
users decided whether to respond. This is an example of a voluntary response sample—a
sample in which respondents themselves decide whether to participate. With a voluntary
response sample, it often happens that those with a strong interest in the topic are more likely
to participate, so the results are very questionable. For example, people who strongly feel that
they cannot function without their morning cup(s) of coffee might be more likely to respond to
the caffeine survey than people who are more ambivalent about caffeine or coffee. When using
sample data to learn something about a population, it is extremely important to obtain sample
data that are representative of the population from which the data are drawn. As we proceed
through this chapter and discuss types of data and sampling methods, we should focus on
these key concepts:

• Sample data must be collected in an appropriate way, such as through a process of

random selection.

• If sample data are not collected in an appropriate way, the data may be so completely
useless that no amount of statistical torturing can salvage them.

It would be easy to accept the preceding survey results and blindly proceed with calcula-
tions and statistical analyses, but we would miss the critical two flaws described above. We
could then develop conclusions that are fundamentally wrong and misleading. Instead, we
should develop skills in statistical thinking and critical thinking so that we are better prepared
to analyze such data.

CHAPTER OBJECTIVES

The single most important concept presented in this chapter is this: When using meth-
ods of statistics with sample data to form conclusions about a population, it is absolutely
essential to collect sample data in a way that is appropriate. Here are the main chapter
objectives:

1-1 Statistical and Critical Thinking

• Analyze sample data relative to context, source, and sampling method.
• Understand the difference between statistical significance and practical significance.
• Define and identify a voluntary response sample and know that statistical conclu-
sions based on data from such a sample are generally not valid.
>>>

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 4 CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Statistics

1-2 Types of Data

• Distinguish between a parameter and a statistic.
• Distinguish between quantitative data and categorical (or qualitative or attribute) data.
• Distinguish between discrete data and continuous data.
• Determine whether basic statistical calculations are appropriate for a particular data set.
1-3 Collecting Sample Data
• Define and identify a simple random sample.
• Understand the importance of sound sampling methods and the importance of
good design of experiments.

1-1 Statistical and Critical Thinking

Key Concept In this section we begin with a few very basic definitions, and then we
consider an overview of the process involved in conducting a statistical study. This
process consists of “prepare, analyze, and conclude.” “Preparation” involves consid-
eration of the context, the source of data, and sampling method. In future chapters we
construct suitable graphs, explore the data, and execute computations required for the
statistical method being used. In future chapters we also form conclusions by deter-
mining whether results have statistical significance and practical significance.
Statistical thinking involves critical thinking and the ability to make sense of results.
Statistical thinking demands so much more than the ability to execute complicated cal-
culations. Through numerous examples, exercises, and discussions, this text will help
you develop the statistical thinking skills that are so important in today’s world.
We begin with some very basic definitions.

DEFINITIONS
Data are collections of observations, such as measurements, or survey responses.
(A single data value is called a datum, a term rarely used. The term “data” is plural,
so it is correct to say “data are…” not “data is…”)
Statistics is the science of planning studies and experiments; obtaining data; and
organizing, summarizing, presenting, analyzing, and interpreting those data and
then drawing conclusions based on them.
A population is the complete collection of all measurements or data that are be-
ing considered. Typically, the population is the complete collection of data that we
would like to make inferences about.
A census is the collection of data from every member of the population.
A sample is a subcollection of members selected from a population.

Because populations are often very large, a common objective of the use of statis-
tics is to obtain data from a sample and then use those data to form a conclusion about
the population.

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 1-1 Statistical and Critical Thinking 5

EXAMPLE 1 Residential Carbon Monoxide Detectors

Survivorship Bias
In the journal article “Residential Carbon Monoxide Detector Failure Rates in the
United States” (by Ryan and Arnold, American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 101, In World War
No. 10), it was stated that there are 38 million carbon monoxide detectors installed II, statisti-
in the United States. When 30 of them were randomly selected and tested, it was cian Abraham
Wald saved
found that 12 of them failed to provide an alarm in hazardous carbon monoxide
many lives
conditions. In this case, the population and sample are as follows:
with his work
Population: All 38 million carbon monoxide detectors in the United States on the Applied
Mathematics Panel. Military
Sample: The 30 carbon monoxide detectors that were selected and tested
leaders asked the panel how they
The objective is to use the sample data as a basis for drawing a conclusion about the could improve the chances of
population of all carbon monoxide detectors, and methods of statistics are helpful in aircraft bombers returning after
drawing such conclusions. missions. They wanted to add
some armor for protection, and
they recorded locations on the
bombers where damaging holes
were found. They reasoned that
We now proceed to consider the process involved in a statistical study. See Figure 1-2
armor should be placed in loca-
for a summary of this process and note that the focus is on critical thinking, not mathe-
tions with the most holes, but
matical calculations. Thanks to wonderful developments in technology, we have power- Wald said that strategy would be
ful tools that effectively do the number crunching so that we can focus on understanding a big mistake. He said that armor
and interpreting results. should be placed where returning
bombers were not damaged. His
reasoning was this: The bombers
that made it back with damage
Prepare were survivors, so the damage
1. Context
they suffered could be survived.
• What do the data represent?
• What is the goal of study? Locations on the aircraft that
2. Source of the Data were not damaged were the most
• Are the data from a source with a special interest so that there is pressure to obtain vulnerable, and aircraft suffer-
results that are favorable to the source? ing damage in those vulnerable
3. Sampling Method areas were the ones that did
• Were the data collected in a way that is unbiased, or were the data collected in a not make it back. The military
way that is biased (such as a procedure in which respondents volunteer to participate)? leaders would have made a big
mistake with survivorship bias by
studying the planes that survived
Analyze instead of thinking about the
1. Graph the Data planes that did not survive.
2. Explore the Data
• Are there any outliers (numbers very far away from almost all of the other data)?
• What important statistics summarize the data (such as the mean and standard deviation
described in Chapter 3)?
• How are the data distributed?
• Are there missing data?
• Did many selected subjects refuse to respond?
3. Apply Statistical Methods
• Use technology to obtain results.

Conclude
1. Significance
• Do the results have statistical significance?
• Do the results have practical significance?

FIGURE 1-2 Statistical Thinking

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 6 CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Statistics
Origin of “Statistics”
The word
statistics is
derived from
the Latin word
status (mean-
ing “state”).
Early uses of
statistics involved compilations
of data and graphs describing
various aspects of a state or
country. In 1662, John Graunt
published statistical information
about births and deaths. Graunt’s
work was followed by studies
of mortality and disease rates,
population sizes, incomes, and
unemployment rates. House-
holds, governments, and busi-
nesses rely heavily on statistical
data for guidance. For example,
unemployment rates, inflation
rates, consumer indexes, and
birth and death rates are carefully
compiled on a regular basis,
and the resulting data are used
by business leaders to make
decisions affecting future hiring,
production levels, and expansion
into new markets.
M01_TRIO9015_02_SE_C01_001-039.indd 6
TABLE 1-1 IQ Scores and Brain Volumes (cm3)
IQ 96 87 101 103 127 96 88 85 97 124
Brain Volume (cm3) 1005 1035 1281 1051 1034 1079 1104 1439 1029 1160
Prepare
Context Figure 1-2 suggests that we begin our preparation by considering the context
of the data, so let’s start with context by considering the data in Table 1-1. (The data
are from Data Set 9 “IQ and Brain Size” in Appendix B.) The data in Table 1-1 consist
of measured IQ scores and measured brain volumes from 10 different subjects. The
data are matched in the sense that each individual “IQ>brain volume” pair of values
is from the same person. The first subject had a measured IQ score of 96 and a brain
volume of 1005 cm3. The format of Table 1-1 suggests the following goal: Determine
whether there is a relationship between IQ score and brain volume. This goal suggests
a possible hypothesis: People with larger brains tend to have higher IQ scores.
Source of the Data The data in Table 1-1 were provided by M. J. Tramo, W. C.
Loftus, T. A. Stukel, J. B. Weaver, and M. S. Gazziniga, who discuss the data in the
article “Brain Size, Head Size, and IQ in Monozygotic Twins,” Neurology, Vol. 50.
The researchers are from reputable medical schools and hospitals, and they would not
gain by presenting the results in way that is misleading. In contrast, Kiwi Brands, a
maker of shoe polish, commissioned a study that resulted in this statement, which was
printed in some newspapers: “According to a nationwide survey of 250 hiring profes-
sionals, scuffed shoes was the most common reason for a male job seeker’s failure to
make a good first impression.”
When physicians who conduct clinical experiments on the efficacy of drugs re-
ceive funding from drug companies, they have an incentive to obtain favorable results.
Some professional journals, such as the Journal of the American Medical Association,
now require that physicians report sources of funding in journal articles. We should be
skeptical of studies from sources that may be biased.
Sampling Method Figure 1-2 suggests that we conclude our preparation by consid-
ering the sampling method. The data in Table 1-1 were obtained from subjects whose
medical histories were reviewed in an effort to ensure that no subjects had neurologic
or psychiatric disease. In this case, the sampling method appears to be sound, but we
cannot be sure of that without knowing how the subjects were recruited and whether
any payments may have affected participation in the study.
Sampling methods and the use of randomization will be discussed in Section 1-3,
but for now, we stress that a sound sampling method is absolutely essential for good
results in a statistical study. It is generally a bad practice to use voluntary response (or
self-selected) samples, even though their use is common.
DEFINITION
A voluntary response sample (or self-selected sample) is one in which the
respondents themselves decide whether to be included.
The following types of polls are common examples of voluntary response samples.
By their very nature, all are seriously flawed because we should not make conclusions
about a population on the basis of samples with a strong possibility of bias:
■ Internet polls, in which people online can decide whether to respond
■ Mail-in polls, in which people decide whether to reply
02/08/16 4:46 PM
 1-1 Statistical and Critical Thinking 7

■ Telephone call-in polls, in which newspaper, radio, or television announcements

ask that you voluntarily call a special number to register your opinion

The Chapter Problem involves a USA Today survey with a voluntary response sample.
See also the following Example 2.

EXAMPLE 2 Voluntary Response Sample

USA Today posted this question on the electronic edition of their newspaper: “Have
you ever been bitten by an animal?” Internet users who saw that question then de-
cided themselves whether to respond. Among the 2361 responses, 65% said “yes”
and 35% said “no.” Because the 2361 subjects themselves chose to respond, they
are a voluntary response sample and the results of the survey are highly question-
able. It would be much better to get results through a poll in which the pollster ran-
domly selects the subjects, instead of allowing the subjects to volunteer themselves.

Analyze
Figure 1-2 indicates that after completing our preparation by considering the context,
source, and sampling method, we begin to analyze the data.

Graph and Explore An analysis should begin with appropriate graphs and explora-
tions of the data. Graphs are discussed in Chapter 2, and important statistics are dis-
cussed in Chapter 3.

Apply Statistical Methods Later chapters describe important statistical methods,

but application of these methods is often made easy with technology (calculators
and>or statistical software packages). A good statistical analysis does not require
strong computational skills. A good statistical analysis does require using common
sense and paying careful attention to sound statistical methods.

Conclude
Figure 1-2 shows that the final step in our statistical process involves conclusions, and
we should develop an ability to distinguish between statistical significance and practi-
cal significance.

Statistical Significance Statistical significance is achieved in a study when we get

a result that is very unlikely to occur by chance. A common criterion is that we have
statistical significance if the likelihood of an event occurring by chance is 5% or less.
■ Getting 98 girls in 100 random births is statistically significant because such an
extreme outcome is not likely to result from random chance.
■ Getting 52 girls in 100 births is not statistically significant because that event
could easily occur with random chance.

Practical Significance It is possible that some treatment or finding is effective, but

common sense might suggest that the treatment or finding does not make enough of a
difference to justify its use or to be practical, as illustrated in Example 3 which follows.

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 8 CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Statistics

EXAMPLE 3 Statistical Significance Versus

Practical Significance
ProCare Industries once supplied a product named Gender Choice that supposedly
increased the chance of a couple having a baby with the gender that they desired.
In the absence of any evidence of its effectiveness, the product was banned by the
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a “gross deception of the consumer.” But
suppose that the product was tested with 10,000 couples who wanted to have baby
girls, and the results consist of 5200 baby girls born in the 10,000 births. This re-
sult is statistically significant because the likelihood of it happening due to chance
is only 0.003%, so chance doesn’t seem like a feasible explanation. That 52% rate
of girls is statistically significant, but it lacks practical significance because 52% is
only slightly above 50%. Couples would not want to spend the time and money to
increase the likelihood of a girl from 50% to 52%. (Note: In reality, the likelihood
of a baby being a girl is about 48.8%, not 50%.)

Analyzing Data: Potential Pitfalls

Here are a few more items that could cause problems when analyzing data.

Misleading Conclusions When forming a conclusion based on a statistical analy-

sis, we should make statements that are clear even to those who have no understand-
ing of statistics and its terminology. We should carefully avoid making statements
not justified by the statistical analysis. For example, later in this book we introduce
the concept of a correlation, or association between two variables, such as smoking
and pulse rate. A statistical analysis might justify the statement that there is a cor-
relation between the number of cigarettes smoked and pulse rate, but it would not
justify a statement that the number of cigarettes smoked causes a person’s pulse rate
to change. Such a statement about causality can be justified by physical evidence, not
by statistical analysis.
Correlation does not imply causation.

Sample Data Reported Instead of Measured When collecting data from people,
it is better to take measurements yourself instead of asking subjects to report results.
Ask people what they weigh and you are likely to get their desired weights, not their
actual weights. People tend to round, usually down, sometimes way down. When
asked, someone with a weight of 187 lb might respond that he or she weighs 160 lb.
Accurate weights are collected by using a scale to measure weights, not by asking
people what they weigh.

Loaded Questions If survey questions are not worded carefully, the results of a
study can be misleading. Survey questions can be “loaded” or intentionally worded to
elicit a desired response. Here are the actual rates of “yes” responses for the two dif-
ferent wordings of a question:
97% yes: “Should the President have the line item veto to eliminate waste?”
57% yes: “Should the President have the line item veto, or not?”

Order of Questions Sometimes survey questions are unintentionally loaded

by such factors as the order of the items being considered. See the following two

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Another random document with
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The Rabbi Ishmael, according to this book, received in addition
these particulars from the lips of Enoch. He was carried to heaven in
a chariot of fire by horses of fire; and when he entered into the
presence of God, the Sacred Beasts, the Seraphim, the Osannim,
the Cherubim, the wheels of the chariot, and all the fiery ministers
recoiled five thousand three hundred and eighty miles at the smell of
him, and cried aloud, “What a stink is come among us from one born
of a woman! Why is one who has eaten of white wheat admitted into
heaven?”
Then the Almighty answered and said, “My servants, Cherubim and
Seraphim, do not be grieved, for all my sons have rejected my
sovereignty and adore idols, this man alone excepted; and in reward
I exalt him to principality over the angels in heaven.” When Enoch
heard this he was glad, for he had been a simple shoemaker on
earth; but this had he done, at every stitch he had said, “The name
of God and His Majesty be praised.”
The height of Enoch when a chief angel was very great. It would take
a man five hundred years to walk from his heel to the crown of his
head. And the ladder which Jacob saw in vision was the ladder of
Metatron.[158] The same authority, above quoted, the Rabbi Ishmael,
is reported to have had the exact measure of Enoch from his own
lips; it was seven hundred thousand times thousand miles in length
and in breadth.[159]
The account in the Targum of Palestine is simply this. “Enoch served
in the truth before the Lord; and behold, he was not with the
sojourners of the earth; for he was withdrawn, and he ascended to
the firmament by the Word before the Lord, and his name was called
Metatron, the Great Saphra.”[160]
Whether the Annakos, or Nannakos of whom Suidas wrote, is to be
identified with Enoch, I do not venture to decide. Suidas says that
Nannak was an aged king before Deucalion (Noah), and that,
foreseeing the Deluge, he called all his subjects together into the
temple to pray the gods with many tears to remit the evil.[161] And
Stephanos, the Byzantine lexicographer, says that Annakos lived at
Iconium in Phrygia, and that to weep for Annak, became a proverb.
 XI.
THE GIANTS.

The Giants, say the Cabbalists, arose thus.

Aza and Azael, two angels of God, complained to the Most High at
the creation of man, and said, “Why hast Thou made man who will
anger Thee?”
But God answered, “And you, O angels, if you were in the lower
world, you, too, would sin.” And He sent them on earth, and then
they fell, as says the Book of Genesis, “And it came to pass that the
sons of God saw the daughters of men that they were fair, and they
took them wives of all which they chose.” After they had sinned, they
were given bodies of flesh; for an angel who spends seven days on
earth becomes opaque and substantial. And when they had been
clothed with flesh and with a corrupt nature, then they spake the
word “Shem hamphorasch,” and sought to regain their former place,
but could not; and were cast out into mountains, there to dwell. From
these angels descend the sons of the giants and the Anakim, and
from their seed also spring the devils.[162] The Rabbi Eliezer says that
the giants sprang from the union of the angels with the daughters of
Cain, who walked about in immodest clothing and cast their eyes
around with bold glances. And the book Zeena-ureena, in the
Parascha Chykkath, says that Og sprang from this connection, and
that Sammael, the angel, was the parent of Og, but that Sihon was
the son of the same angel who deceived the wife of Ham when she
was about to enter the ark.[163]
The account in the Book of Enoch is as follows:—
“Hear and fear not, Enoch, thou righteous man, and writer of
righteousness, come hither and hear my words: Go speak unto the
Watchers of Heaven, and say unto them, Ye shall pray for men and
not men for you. Why have ye forsaken the high and holy and
eternal heaven, and have joined yourselves to women, and polluted
yourselves with the daughters of men, and have taken to you wives,
and have become the fathers of a giant race? Ye, who were spiritual,
holy, and enjoying eternal life, have corrupted yourselves with
women, and have become parents of children with flesh and blood;
lusting after the blood of men, ye have brought forth flesh and blood,
like those who are mortal and perishable. Because men die,
therefore did I give unto them wives, that they might have sons, and
perpetuate their generation. But ye are spiritual and in the enjoyment
of eternal life. Therefore gave I not to you wives, for heaven is the
abode of the spirits. And now the giants, who are born of flesh and
blood, shall become evil spirits, and their dwelling shall be on the
earth. Bad beings shall proceed from them. Because they have been
generated from above, from the holy Watchers have they received
their origin, therefore shall they be evil spirits on the earth, and evil
spirits shall they be called. And the spirits of the giants, which mount
upon the clouds, will fail and be cast down, and do violence, and
cause ruin on the earth and injury; they shall not eat, they shall not
thirst, and they shall be invisible.”[164]
Among the Oriental Christians it is said, that Adam having related to
the children of Seth the delights of Paradise, several of them desired
to recover the lost possession. They retired to Mount Hermon and
dwelt there in the fear of the Lord; living in great austerity, in hope
that their penitence would recover Eden. But the Canaanites dwelt
round them on all sides, and the sons of Seth, becoming tired of
celibacy, took the daughters of the Canaanites to wife, and to them
were born the giants.[165]
Others say that the posterity of the patriarch Seth were those called
the “Sons of God,” because they lived on Mount Hermon in familiar
discourse with the angels. On this mountain they fed only on the fruit
of the earth, and their sole oath was, “By the blood of Abel.”[166]
Among the giants was Surkrag, of whom we have already related a
few particulars. He was not of the race of men, nor of the posterity of
Adam. According to the Mussulman account he was commander of
the armies of Soliman Tchaghi, who reigned over the earth before
the time of Gian ben Gian, who succeeded him and reigned seven
thousand years. The whole earth was then in the power of the Jins.
Gian ben Gian erected the pyramids of Egypt.
Surkrag obeyed God, and followed the true religion, and would not
suffer his subject Jins to insult or maltreat the descendants of Adam.
He reigned on Mount Kaf, and allied himself, according to Persian
authorities, with Kaïumarth, the first king of the world, whom some
Persian writers identify with Adam, but others suppose to be the son
of Mahalaleel, and cotemporary with Enoch. Ferdusi, the author of
the Schah-Nâmeh, speaks of him as the first who wore a crown and
sat on a throne, and imposed a tribute on his subjects. He says that
this monarch lived a thousand years, and reigned five hundred and
fifty years. He was the first to teach men to build houses.
But if Kaïumarth was the first man to reign, he was the first also to
weary of it; for he abdicated his sovereignty and retired into his
former abode, a cave, after having surrendered his authority to his
son Siamek. Siamek having been killed, Kaïumarth re-ascended his
throne to revenge his death. After having recovered the body of his
son, he buried him with great honours, and kindled over his grave a
great fire, which was kept perpetually burning, and this originated the
worship of fire among the people of Iran.
Kaïumarth overcame the giant Semendoun, who had a hundred
arms; his son, Huschenk, also overcame a giant who had three
heads, mounted on an animal with twelve legs. This animal, named
Rakhsche, was found by him in the Dog Isle, or the New Continent,
and was born of the union of a crocodile and an hippopotamus, and
it fed on the flesh of serpents. Having mastered this beast, Huschenk
overcame the Mahisers, which have heads of fish and are of great
ferocity. After having extended his conquests to the extremities of the
earth, Huschenk was crushed to death by a mass of rock which the
giants, his mortal enemies, hurled against him.[167]
According to Tabari, Huschenk was the son of Kaïumarth, who was
the son of Mahalaleel. He was the first man to cut down trees and to
make boards, and fashion them into doors to close the entrance to
houses. He also discovered many precious stones, such as the
topaz and the jacinth. He reigned four hundred years.[168]
He was succeeded by Tahmourath, who taught men to saddle and
bridle horses; he was also the first man to write in Persian
characters; he figures as a great hero in Iranian fable. According to
the story in Persia, he was carried by the Simorg to the mountain of
Kaf. Now the Simorg is a wondrous bird, speaking all languages, and
eminently religious.
According to the Kaherman Nâmeh, the bird Simorg, being asked its
age, replied, “This world has been seven times peopled, and seven
times made void of living beings. The generation of Adam, in which
we now are, will last seven thousand years, which form a cycle, and I
have seen twelve of these revolutions. How many more I shall see is
unknown to me.”
The same book informs us that the Simorg was a great friend of the
race of Adam, and a great enemy to the demons and Jins. He knew
Adam personally, and had done obeisance to him, and enjoyed the
same religion as our first fathers. He foretold to Tahmourath all that
was to take place in the world, and plucking from his bosom some
feathers, he presented them to him, and from that time all great
captains and men of war wear feather crests.
Tahmourath having been transported by the bird to the mountains of
Kaf, he assisted the Peris, who were at war with the Jins. Argenk,
the giant, finding that the Peris were gaining the mastery, with the
assistance of Tahmourath, sent an embassy desiring peace; but the
ambassador, Imlain, abandoned the party of the Jins and assisted
Tahmourath to obtain complete mastery in the mountains of Kaf, and
to overcome not only the giant Argenk, but also Demrusch, a far
more terrible monster. Demrusch lived in a cavern guarding a vast
treasure, which he had amassed in Persia and India. He had also
carried off the Peri Mergian. Tahmourath slew Demrusch and
released Mergian.
According to the Persian story, Tahmourath was the first to cultivate
rice, and to nourish silk-worms in the province of Tabristan.[169]
To return to Tabari.
Djemschid was the brother of Tahmourath; he was the first man to
forge arms, and he is probably to be identified with Tubal-cain. He
introduced also the use of pigments, and he discovered pearls, and
also to dig for lime, vermilion, and quicksilver; he likewise
compounded scents, and cultivated flowers. He divided all men into
four classes,—soldiers, scribes, agriculturists, and artisans. At the
head of all he placed the learned, that they might guide the affairs of
men, and set them their tasks and instruct them in what they were to
do.
Then Djemschid asked the wise men, “What must a king do to
secure his throne?”
They answered, “He must reign in equity.”
Consequently, Djemschid instituted justice; and he sat the first day of
every month with his wise men, and ministered righteous judgments.
For seven hundred years he continued this practice; and in all that
time no rebellion broke out, no afflictions troubled him, nor was his
reign in any way menaced.
One day, whilst Djemschid was taking his siesta alone in his
chamber, Eblis entered by the window, and Djemschid asked, “Who
art thou?” Now he thought he was one of those who waited without
till he should come forth to administer justice. Eblis entered into
conversation with Djemschid, and said, “I am an angel, and I have
descended from heaven to give thee counsel.”
“What counsel dost thou offer?” asked the king.
Eblis replied, “Tell me, who art thou?”
He answered, “I am one of the sons of Adam.”
“Thou mistakest,” said the Evil One: “thou art not a man. Consider,
since thou hast reigned, has anything failed thee? Hast thou suffered
any affliction, any loss, any revolt? If thou wert a son of Adam,
sorrow would be thy lot. Nay, verily, thou art a god!”
“And what sign canst thou show me of my divinity?”
“I am an angel. Mortal man cannot behold an angel, and live.”
Then he vanished. Djemschid fell into the snare of pride.
Next day he caused a great fire to be lighted, and he called together
all men and said to them, “I am a god, worship me; I created heaven
above and earth beneath; and those that refuse to adore me shall be
consumed in the fire.”
Then from fear of him many obeyed; and the same hour revolt broke
out.
There was a man named Beyourasp who stirred up the people, and
led a great army against Djemschid, and overcame him, and took
from him his kingdom, and sawed the king asunder from the head to
the feet.[170]
 XII.
LAMECH.

“Methusael begat Lamech. And Lamech took unto him two wives:
the name of the one was Adah, and the name of the other Zillah.
And Adah bare Jabal: he was the father of such as dwell in tents,
and of such as have cattle. And his brother’s name was Jubal: he
was the father of all such as handle the harp and organ. And Zillah,
she also bare Tubal-cain, an instructor of every artificer in brass and
iron: and the sister of Tubal-cain was Naamah. And Lamech said
unto his wives, Adah and Zillah, Hear my voice; ye wives of Lamech,
hearken unto my speech: for I have slain a man to my wounding,
and a young man to my hurt. If Cain shall be avenged seven-fold,
truly Lamech seventy and seven-fold.”[171]
The speech of Lamech points to a tradition unrecorded in the Sacred
Text, with which the Israelites were probably well acquainted, and
which therefore did not need repetition; or else, there has been a
paragraph dropped out of the original text. The speech is sufficiently
mysterious to raise our curiosity. Whom had Lamech slain? and why
should Lamech be avenged?
The Targums throw no light on the passage, merely paraphrasing it,
without supplying the key to the speech of Lamech.[172] But Rabbinic
tradition is unanimous on its signification. The book Jasher says that
in those days men did not love to have children, therefore they gave
their wives drink to make them sterile. Zillah had taken this drink,
and she was barren till in her old age she bare Tubal-cain and
Naamah. Now Lamech became blind in his old age, and he was led
about by the boy Tubal-cain. Tubal-cain saw Cain in the distance,
and supposing from the horn on his forehead that he was a beast, he
said to his father, “Span thy bow and shoot!” Then the old man
discharged his arrow, and Cain fell dead.
But when he ascertained that he had slain his great ancestor, he
smote his hands together, and in so doing, by accident struck his son
and killed him. Therefore his wives were wroth and would have no
communication with him. But he appeased them with the words
recorded in Genesis.[173] The same story is told in the book of the
“Combat of Adam.”
Some Jewish writers adopt a tradition that Tubal-cain was not slain,
but was severely injured by his father; according to some, he was
lamed. Connecting this tradition with his name, a striking analogy
springs up between him and the Vulcan of classic antiquity, and the
Völundr of Norse mythology. Both were lame, both were forgers of
iron, and the names Vulcan and Völundr bear some affinity to Tubal-
cain; for, cutting off Tu, we have Balcain or Vulcan. A very learned
and exhaustive monograph on Völundr has been written by MM.
Depping and Michel.[174]
Tubal is said by Tabari to have discovered the art of fermenting the
juice of the grape, as well as that of music. Eblis deceived the young
man, who was full of gaiety, and taught him many things, amongst
others how to make wine. Tubal took grapes and crushed them, and
made must, and let it grow bitter. Then he took it and put it in a glass
jug. He made flutes, lutes, cymbals, and drums. When he began to
drink the wine he had made, he jumped and danced. All the sons of
Cain looked on, and, pleased with his merriment, they also drank
and played on the instruments Tubal had made.[175]
Naamah, the sister of Tubal-cain, became the wife of the devil
Schomron, by whom she became the mother of Asmodeus.[176]
 XIII.
METHUSELAH.

It is related that an angel appeared to Methuselah, who was then

aged five hundred years, and lived in the open air, and advised him
to build a house. The Patriarch asked how long he had to live.
“About five hundred years more,” answered the angel. “Then,” said
Methuselah, “it is not worth taking the trouble for so short a time.”[177]
“Methuselah,” says the Midrash, “was a thoroughly righteous man.
Every word that fell from his lips was superlatively perfect,
exhausting the praises of the Lord. He had learnt nine hundred
chapters of the Mischna. At his death a frightful thunder was heard,
and all beasts burst into tears. He was mourned seven days by men,
and therefore the outbreak of the Flood was postponed till the
mourning was over.”[178]
Eusebius says, “He lived longer than all who had preceded him. He,
according to all editions (of the LXX.), lived fifteen years after the
Deluge, but where he was preserved through it is uncertain.”[179]
But the general opinion of the Jews follows the Midrash. The Rabbi
Solomon says, he died seven days before the Flood; and the Pirke
of Rabbi Eliezer and the Jalkut confirm this opinion. He is said to
have pronounced three hundred and thirty parables to the honour of
the Most High. But the origin of this is to be traced to the Cabbalists,
who say that, by transposition of the letters of his name, the
anagram “He who prophesied in parables” can be read.[180]
He had a sword inscribed with the Schem hammphorasch (the
Incommunicable Name), and with it he succeeded in slaying a
thousand devils.[181]
 XIV.
NOAH

The earth being filled with violence, God resolved on its destruction,
but Noah, the just, He purposed to save alive.
On the words of Genesis, “All flesh had corrupted his way upon the
earth,” the Rabbi Johanan taught that not only was the race of men
utterly demoralized, but also all the races of animals.[182] Noah and
his family, and one pair of all the beasts of earth, were to be saved in
the ark, but of every clean beast seven were to enter in. Falsehood
hastened to the ark and asked to be admitted; Noah refused. “I admit
the animals only in pairs,” said he.
Then Falsehood went away in wrath, and met Injustice, who said—
“Why art thou so sad?”
“I have been refused admittance into the ark, for I am single,” said
Falsehood; “be thou my companion.”
“See, now,” answered Injustice, “I take no companionship without
prospect of gain.”
“Fear not,” said Falsehood, “I will spread the toils and thou shalt
have the booty.”
So they went together to the ark, and Noah was unable to refuse
them admission. And when the Flood was passed and the beasts
went forth out of the ark, Falsehood said angrily, “I have done my
work and have caused evil, but thou hast all the plunder; share with
me.”
“Thou fool!” answered Injustice, “dost thou forget the agreement?
Thine it is to spread the net, mine alone to take the spoil.”[183]
At the time of the Deluge the giants were not all drowned, for Og
planted his foot upon the fountains of the great deep, and with his
hands stopped the windows of heaven, or the water would have
risen over his head. The Rabbi Eliezer[184] said that the giants
exclaimed, when the Flood broke out, “If all the waters of the earth
be gathered together, they will only reach our waists; but if the
fountains of the great deep be broken up, we must stamp them down
again.” And this they did, but God made the waters boiling hot, and it
scalded them so that their flesh was boiled and fell off their bones.
[185]
But what became of Og in the Deluge we learn from the Talmud.
[186]
He went into the water along with a rhinoceros[187] beside the ark,
and clung to it; now the water round the ark was cold, but all the rest
was boiling hot. Thus he was saved alive, whereas the other giants
perished.
According to another authority, Og climbed on the roof of the ark;
and on Noah attempting to dislodge him, he swore that, if allowed to
remain there, he and his posterity would be the slaves of the sons of
Noah. Thereupon the patriarch yielded. He bored a hole in the side
of the vessel, and passed through it every day the food necessary
for the giant’s consumption.[188]
It is asserted by some Rabbinic writers that the Deluge did not
overflow the land of Israel, but was partial; some say the Holy Land
was alone left dry, and a rhinoceros had taken refuge on it and so
escaped being drowned. But others say that the land of Israel was
submerged, though all agree that the rhinoceros survived without
having entered the ark. And they explain the escape of the
rhinoceros in this manner. Its head was taken into the ark, and it
swam behind the vessel. Now the rhinoceros is a very large animal,
and could not be admitted into the ark lest it should swamp it. The
Rabbi Jannai says, he saw a young rhinoceros of a day old, and it
was as big as Mount Tabor; and Tabor’s dimensions are forty miles.
Its neck was three miles long, and its head half a mile. It dropped
dung, and the dung choked up Jordan. Other commentators object
that the head was too large to be admitted into the ark, and suppose
that only the tip of its nose was received. But as the ark swayed on
the waters, Noah tied the horn of the rhinoceros to the side of the
vessel, lest the beast’s nose should slip off in a lurch of the ark, and
so the creature perish.
All this is from the Talmud.
Let us now turn to some of the Mussulman legends of Noah. His
history is briefly related in the Koran, in the chapter entitled “Hud.”
“Noah built the ark with our assistance and that of the angels,
following the knowledge we revealed to him, and we said to him:
Speak no more in behalf of the sinners; they shall all be drowned.
“Whilst Noah was building his ark, all those who passed by mocked
him; but he said to them: Though you rail at me now, the time will
come when I shall rail at you; for you will learn to your cost, Who it is
that punishes the wicked in this world, and reserves for them a
further punishment in the world to come.”
In the annals of Eutychius of Alexandria, who wrote in Egypt in the
tenth century, and who probably quoted from apocryphal documents
now perished, we read that, before the Flood broke out, Noah made
a bell of plane wood, about five feet high, which he sounded every
day, morning, noon, and evening. When any one asked him why he
did so, he replied, “To warn you that God will send a deluge to
destroy you all.”
Eutychius adds some further particulars.
“Before they entered the ark,” says he, “Noah and his sons went to
the cave of Elcanuz, where lay the bodies of Adam, Seth, Cainan,
Mahalaleel, Jared, Methuselah, and Lamech. He kissed his dead
ancestors, and bore off the body of Adam together with precious
oblations. Shem bore gold; Ham took myrrh; and Japheth incense.
Having gone forth, as they descended the Holy Mount they lifted
their eyes to Paradise, which crowned it, and said, with tears,
‘Farewell! Holy Paradise, farewell!’ and they kissed the stones and
embraced the trees of the Holy Mount.”[189]
Ibn Abbas, one of the commentators on the Koran, adds, that Noah
being in doubt as to the shape he was to give to the ark, God
revealed to him that it was to be modelled on the plan of a bird’s
belly, and that it was to be constructed of teak wood. Noah planted
the tree, and in twenty years it grew to such a size that out of it he
was able to build the entire ark.[190]
To return to the Koran.
“When the time prescribed for the punishment of men was arrived,
and the oven began to boil and vomit, we said to Noah: Take and
bring into the ark two couples of every kind of animal, male and
female, with all your family, except him who has been condemned by
your mouth, and receive the faithful, and even the unbelievers; but
few only will enter.”
The interpreters of the Koran say that the ark was built in two years.
They give it the dimensions mentioned in Genesis:—three stages,
that on the top for the birds, the middle one for the men and the
provisions, whilst the beasts occupied the hold. The sign of the
outburst of the Flood was that water flowed out of the burning oven
of Noah’s wife. Then all the veins and arteries of the earth broke and
spirted out water. He who was excluded was Canaan, the son of
Ham, whom he had cursed. But Abulfeda says that it was Jam, a
fourth son of Noah, who was excluded from the ark.[191] The Persians
say that Ham incurred his father’s malediction as well, and, for that,
he and his posterity became black and were enslaved; but that
Noah, grieved for his son’s progeny, prayed God to have mercy on
them, and God made the slave to be loved and cherished by his
master.
The Koran says, “Noah having entered the ark with his wife (Noema,
daughter of Enoch, according to the Yaschar; Noria, according to the
Gnostics; Vesta, according to the Cabbalists), and his three sons,
Shem, Ham, and Japheth, and their wives, the three daughters of
Eliakim, son of Methuselah, he said to those who dwell on the earth,
‘Embark in the name of the Lord.’
“And whilst he thus spake, the ark advanced or halted, according to
his order, in the name of God.”
But the Yaschar says that the ungodly dwellers on the earth, finding
the Flood rising, hastened in such crowds to the ark, that they would
have overfilled it, had not the lions and other animals within
defended the entrance and repulsed them.[192]
According to some Oriental traditions, Noah embarked at Koufah;
according to others, near where Babylon was afterwards erected; but
some say in India; and some affirm that in the six months during
which the Deluge lasted, the ark made the circuit of the world.[193]
Noah, seeing that his grandson Canaan was not on board, called to
him, and said, “Embark, my child, and do not remain among the
ungodly.”
But Canaan replied, “I will ascend the mountains, and shall be safe
there.”
“Nothing can save thee to-day but the mercy of God,” said Noah.
Whilst thus speaking, a wave rushed between them and submerged
Canaan.
After forty days, the ark swam from one end of the earth to the other,
over the highest mountains. Over Mount Kubeis, chosen by God in
which to preserve the sacred black stone of the Kaaba, the ark
revolved seven times.[194]
Tabari says that Noah had four sons, and that of these Canaan was
the youngest, and that the three elder believed in his mission, but his
wife and Canaan laughed at his predictions. The animals that were
brought into the ark were collected and wafted to it by the wind.
When the ass was about to enter, Eblis (Satan) caught hold of its tail.
The ass came on slowly; Noah was impatient, and exclaimed, “You
cursed one, come in quick.”
When Eblis was within, Noah saw him, and said, “What right have
you in here?”
“I have entered at your invitation,” answered the Evil One. “You said,
‘Cursed one, come in;’ I am the accursed one.”
When six months had passed, the ark rested on the surface of the
water above Djondi,[195] and the rain ceased to fall, and God said to
the earth, “Suck in the water;” and to the sky, “Withhold thy rains.”
The water abated; and the ark lodged on the top of the mountain.
“There left the ark two sorts of animals which had not entered it—the
pig and the cat. These animals did not exist before the Deluge, and
God created them in the ark because it was full of filth and human
excrements, which caused a great stench. The persons in the ark,
not being able to endure any longer the smell, complained to Noah.
Then Noah passed his hand down the back of the elephant, and it
evacuated the pig. The pig ate all the dung which was in the ark, and
the stench was no more.
“Some time after the rats gave great annoyance. They ate the food,
and befouled what they did not eat. Then the voyagers went to
Noah, and said to him, You delivered us in our former difficulty, but
now we are plagued with rats, which gnaw our garments, eat our
victuals, and cover everything with their filth. Then Noah passed his
hand down the back of the lion, who sneezed, and the cat leaped out
of its nose. And the cat ate the rats.
“When Noah had left the ark, he passed forty days on the mountain,
till all the water had subsided into the sea. All the briny water that is
there is what remains from the Flood.
“Noah said to the raven, Go and place your foot on the earth and see
what is the depth of the water. The raven departed; but, having found
a carcase, it remained to devour it, and did not return. Noah was
provoked, and he cursed the raven, saying, May God make thee
contemptible among men, and let carrion be thy food!
“After that Noah sent forth the dove. The dove departed, and, without
tarrying, put her feet in the water. The water of the Flood scalded
and pickled the legs of the dove. It was hot and briny, and feathers
would not grow on her legs any more, and the skin scaled off. Now,
doves which have red and featherless legs are of the sort that Noah
sent forth. The dove returning showed her legs to Noah, who said,
May God render thee well-pleasing to men! For that reason the dove
is dear to men’s hearts.”[196]
Another version of the story is this. Noah blessed the dove, and
since then she has borne a neck-ring of green feathers; but the
raven, on the other hand, he cursed, that its flight should be crooked,
and never direct like that of other birds.[197] This is also a Jewish
legend.[198]
After that, Noah descended the mountain along with the eighty
persons who had been saved with him, and he found that not a
house was left standing on the face of the earth. Noah built a town
consisting of eighty houses,—a house apiece for all who had been
saved with him.[199]
Fabricius, in his collection of apocrypha of the Old Testament, has
published the prayer that Noah offered daily in the ark, beside the
body of Adam, which he bore with him, to bury it on Golgotha.
“O Lord, Thou art excellent in truth, and nothing is great beside
Thee; look upon us in mercy; deliver us from this deluge of water for
the sake of the pangs of Adam, the first man whom Thou didst make;
for the sake of the blood of Abel, the holy one; for the sake of just
Seth, in whom Thou didst delight; number us not amongst those who
have broken Thy commandments, but cover us with Thy protection,
for Thou art our deliverer, and to Thee alone are due the praises
uttered by the works of Thy hands from all eternity.” And all the
children of Noah responded, “Amen, O Lord.”[200]
Noah is said to have left the ark on the tenth day of the first month of
the Mussulman year, and to have instituted the fast which the
Mahommedans observe on that day, to thank God for his
deliverance.
According to the Book of Enoch, the water of the Flood was
transformed by God into fire, which will consume the world and the
ungodly, at the consummation of all things.[201]
The Targum of Palestine says that the dove plucked the leaf she
brought to Noah from off a tree on the Mount of Olives.[202]
The Book Jasher supplies an omission in Genesis. In Genesis it is
said of Lamech, on the birth of Noah, “He called his name Noah;
saying, This same shall comfort us concerning our work and toil of
our hands, because of the ground which the Lord hath cursed;”[203]
but Noah signifies rest, not comfort. The Book Jasher says that
Methuselah called the child Noah, rest, because the land rested from
the curse; but Lamech called him Menahem, comfort, for the reason
given in the text of Genesis. The sacred writer has given one name
with the signification of the other.[204]
 XV.
HEATHEN LEGENDS OF THE DELUGE.

Ararat has borne this name for three thousand years. We read in the
Book of Genesis that “the ark rested, in the seventh month, on the
seventeenth day of the month, upon the mountains of Ararat.” In
passages of the Old Testament, as in Isaiah xxxvii. 38 and 2 Kings
xix. 37, mention is made of a land, in Jeremiah li. 27 of a kingdom, of
Ararat; and we are likewise informed by Moses of Chorene, the first
authority among Armenian writers, that an entire country bore this
name after an ancient Armenian king, Arai the Fair, who lived about
1750 years before Christ. He fell in a bloody battle with the
Babylonians on a plain in Armenia, called after him Arai-Arat, the Fall
of Arai.
Before this event the country bore the name of Amasia, from its
sovereign, Amassis, the sixth in descent from Japheth, who gave the
name of Massis to the mountain. This is still the only name by which
it is known to the Armenians; for, though it is called Ararat in the
Armenian edition of the Old Testament, yet the people call it Massis,
and know no other name for it. The Mussulmans call it Agridagh, the
strong mountain. The name by which it is known to the Persians is
Kuhi-Nuh, the mountain of Noah, or Saad-dagh, the Blessed
Mountain.[205]
But tradition is not at one as to the peak on which the ark rested, or
from which Noah descended, as we shall presently see. Ararat is
17,210 feet in altitude above the sea, and 14,320 feet above the
plain of the Araxes. On the north-eastern slope of the mountain,
even from a distance, may be seen a deep, gloomy chasm, which
gives the appearance as if the mountain had been rent asunder at
the top: this was probably at some remote period the volcanic vent,
for the mountain is composed of tufa, scoria, and erupted matter. It
shoots up in one rigid crest, and then sweeps down towards Little
Ararat, the second summit, which stands 13,000 feet above the sea.
[206]

The people of the neighbourhood point to a step on the mountain

side, covered with perpetual snow and glacier, and where, say they,
the ark rested; and to a town near Ararat named Naktschiwan, or
“the first outgoing” of Noah from the ark. This etymological
interpretation is probably as questionable as that of Ararat given by
Moses of Chorene; it is true the city is ancient, for it was severely
injured by an earthquake in the reign of Astyages the Median, in the
sixth century before Christ. It is called Naxuana by Josephus,[207] and
he says it was so called because there Noah first descended from
the ark, and that remains of the ark were there to be seen carefully
preserved. And there, says the Armenian historian Vartan, is also the
tomb of Noah. Nicolas of Damascus, in his History of Syria, Berosus
the ancient Babylonian writer and other heathen historians, tell a
similar tale; and we learn that relics of the ark were distributed
thence, and were regarded with the utmost reverence, as amulets.
Nicolas of Damascus, who wrote in the reign of Augustus, says,
“There is beyond the Minyadian land a great mountain in Armenia,
Baris by name (perhaps for Masis), on which, as the tradition says,
some one sailing over it in an ark, lodged on the topmost peak. The
remains of the wood continued to exist long. Perhaps this may be
the same as he of whom Moses, the Jewish historian, has
written.”[208]
The story quoted by Eusebius from an ancient writer named Molo,
gives a form of the Syrian tradition. “After the Deluge, the man who
with his sons escaped the flood, went out of Armenia, after he had
been driven out of his inheritance by the violence of the natives. He
came thence into the mountains of Syria, which were then
uninhabited.”[209] And with this agrees a curious allusion in Lucian,
who was himself a Syrian. He says that there was in Syria, in the city
Hierapolis, a religious festival, and a very ancient temple, connected
“with the popular story of Deucalion the Scythian, who lived at the