4 Period Absolute

Time Actual Moving Forecast Absolute Percent Time Actual

Period Sales Average Error |Error | Error 2 Error (%) Period Sales
1 45 1 45
2 51 2 51
3 54 3 54
4 42 4 42
5 50 48 2 2 4 4 5 50
6 40 49.25 -9.25 9.25 85.5625 23.125 6 40
7 53 46.5 6.5 6.5 42.25 12.26415 7 53
8 44 46.25 -2.25 2.25 5.0625 5.113636 8 44
9 42 46.75 -4.75 4.75 22.5625 11.30952 9 42
10 MAD MSE MAPE 10
4.95 31.8875 11.16246

RMSE 3.34103

Forecast Error = Actual - Forecast

Absolute Error (|Error|) use abs function

Mean Absolute Deviation/Error (MAD) is the average of the |
Error|
Mean Squared Error (MSE) is the average of those errors
Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) = SQRT (MAPE)
Absolute Percent Error = abs(forecast error/ actual value)* 100
Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) average of APE
3 Period Absolute
Moving Forecast Percent
Average Error |Error | Error 2 Error (%)

50 -8 8 64 19.04762
49 1 1 1 2
48.66667 -8.666667 8.666667 75.11111 21.66667
44 9 9 81 16.98113
47.66667 -3.666667 3.666667 13.44444 8.333333
45.66667 -3.666667 3.666667 13.44444 8.730159
MAD MSE MAPE
5.2 36.8 11.54226

RMSE 6.0663
 α 1-α
0.4 0.6

Month Demand Forecast |Error| Error 2 APE

1 48
2 44 48
3 40
4 50
5 37
6 42
7 43
#DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
MAD MSE MAPE

FORECAST
α X actual (in the last period) + 1-α x Forecast (in the last
period)
|Error| = abs(actual - forecast value) - ABSOLUTE ERROR
Error 2 = |Error|^2 - SQUARED ERROR
Absolute Percent Error = (abs error |Error|/ actual value)* 100
 alpha 0.4 0.1 beta

Smoothed
Average Smoothed Forecast Incl
(F1) Trend (T1) Trend FIT1
WEEK DEMAND
1 650 650 28
2 678 678 28 678 1000

DEMAND FORECAST
3 720 711.6 28.56 706 800

4 785 758.096 30.3536 740.16 600

5 859 816.66976 33.175616 788.4496 400
6 920 877.907226 35.981801 849.845376 200
7 850 888.333416 33.4262399 913.889027 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
8 758 856.255794 26.8758537 921.759656
WEEK
9 892 886.678988 27.2305878 883.131647
10 920 916.345746 27.4742047 913.909576
Forecast Incl Trend FIT1 DEMAND
11 789 881.89197 21.2814067 943.81995
12 844 879.504026 18.9144716 903.173377
13 898.418498

T1 =A2(ACTUAL DEMAND) - A1(ACTUAL DEMAND

FIT1 F1 + T1
F1 alpha*A2(actual Demand) + (1-alpha)* (F1 + T1)
T1 beta*(f2-fi ) + (1-beta)*T1

ERROR SUB F2 TO FIT2

|ERROR| ABS(ERROR)
 ERROR |ERROR| MSE MAD

0 0 0 0
5.6 5.6 31.36 14.18667
17.936 17.936 321.7001 119.1907
28.22016 28.22016 796.3774 284.2726
28.06185 28.06185 787.4674 281.197
-25.55561 25.55561 653.0892 217.6964
-65.50386 65.50386 4290.756 1430.252
8 10 12 14
3.547341 3.547341 12.58363 6.559437
EK
2.43617 2.43617 5.934922 3.60242
-61.92798 61.92798 3835.075 1278.358
T1 DEMAND
-23.66935 23.66935 560.2382 186.7461
-898.4185 898.4185 807155.8 269051.9
Number Number Number Number COVAR
1 2 5 6 1.25
3 4 7 8

COVAR FUNCTION IN EXCEL returns the covariance, the average of the

products of deviations for two data sets. Use covariance to determine the
relationship between two data sets. For example, you can examine whether
greater income accompanies greater levels of education.

The parameters (array1.. array2) are ranges or arrays of integer values.

of the
mine the
e whether

alues.