Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk mapping
in Hunza River Basin (Pakistan) using geospatial
techniques
Arjumand Z. Zaidi
Department of Remote Sensing and Geo-information
Sciences, Institute of Space Technology
Karachi, Pakistan
Arjumand.zaidi@ist.edu.pk
Mohammad Danish Siddiqui
Department of Remote Sensing and Geo-information Sciences, Institute of Space Technology
Karachi, Pakistan
danish769@yahoo.com
Abstract— In Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region,
observations on glacial fluctuations indicate substantial retreat of
glaciers, especially in Pakistan, Nepal, India and China. Recent
global temperature rise has allegedly been responsible for the
depletion of these glaciers and consequently creation of lakes on
their terminus. Several of these lakes have burst and caused flooding
or Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the recent past. GLOFs
have a potential of releasing millions of cubic meters of water in a
few hours causing catastrophic flooding downstream and damaging
whatever comes into their way. Hazard mapping of elements at risk
may enhance the capacity of the vulnerable communities to face these
disasters in order to reduce their devastating impacts. Study of
GLOFs hazard in Hunza River basin of Pakistan using geospatial
techniques consisting of satellite remote sensing, Geographical
Information System (GIS), hydraulic and hydrology tools is proposed
in this paper. Geospatial techniques have a capacity to acquire
information regarding the status of glaciers and glacier lakes at
spatial and temporal resolutions beyond the capability of infrequent
and point scale in-situ monitoring. Remotely sensed satellite data
along with ground based data are used in this study for risk mapping
of Passu Lake in Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The outcomes of the
proposed study will be helpful for GLOFs risk management and an
overall strategy to address possible risks from future GLOFs events
in the country.
Keywords—galcial lake outburst flood (GLOF); remote
sensing; GIS; hydrologic and hydraulic modeling, risk map
I. INTRODUCTION
Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) occurs when a dam
containing a glacial lake fails. This is mainly due to the glaciers
retreat. As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes are formed behind
moraine or ice dams or inside the glaciers. A sudden breach in
its walls may lead to a discharge of huge volumes of water and
debris. Several of such lakes have been burst in the recent past
resulting in a loss of human lives and destruction and damages
of infrastructure in the valleys below. Glacier-outburst floods
cannot be predicted and therefore, a continuous monitoring and
978-1-4673-6396-9/13/$31.00 ©2013 IEEE
Zeenat Yasmeen
Department of Remote Sensing and Geo-information
Sciences, Institute of Space Technology
Karachi, Pakistan
zeenat.raza@yahoo.com
mapping, both spatial and temporal, as opposed to a limited
frequency point measurement can reduce the devastating
impact of such hazards. Sometimes it is not easy to avoid
natural phenomena causing disasters such as GLOFs, but a
prior knowledge about their nature and possible extent can
develop a capacity of disaster management authorities to
respond and recover from emergency and disaster events.
Similarly, hazard maps cannot stop a disastrous event from
happening but an effective use of hazard maps can prevent an
extreme event from becoming a disaster. This paper proposes
a mechanism for reliable and cost effective GLOF hazard
mapping and damage assessment using advanced geospatial
hydrologic/hydraulic modeling techniques in Hunza River
basin.
A. Nature of the Problem
Recent global warming has allegedly been responsible for
many alterations in the natural phenomena in many regions of
the world. Few of the impacts of the recent climate change in
the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) are the creation of glacier
lakes on the lower sections of these glaciers. Several of these
lakes have burst in the recent past causing Glacial Lake
Outburst Floods (GLOFs) that resulted in a loss of human lives
and destruction and damages of infrastructure in the valleys
below. GLOFs may develop abruptly in a river with no history
of outburst flooding and for that reason magnitude and
frequency of glacial-outburst floods cannot be predicted using
standard statistical methods. Due to remote locations of such
lakes, a continuous spatial and temporal monitoring required to
reduce the devastating impact of GLOFs is very challenging
given the rugged terrains and harsh weather conditions.
Remote Sensing (RS) techniques have a capacity to acquire
information at spatial and temporal resolutions beyond the
capability of infrequent and point scale in-situ monitoring.
Utilizing this capability of RS and GIS techniques status of
glaciers and glacier lakes can be continuously monitored.
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B. Background of Previous Work
According to World Meteorological Organization (2011),
the first decade of the 21th century (2001-2010) was the
warmest decade recorded over the globe. Due to rise in global
temperature, most of the world glaciers are subject to depletion
with a few exceptions and are posing serious challenges to
water security [1]. The heavily glacierized region of Pakistan
has also experienced a similar trend of rising annual mean
temperatures along with significantly increased heat waves
over the southern slopes of HKH [2]. Rapid retreat of glaciers
increases run-off and contributes to the growth of glacial lakes
[3] that may burst and destroy downstream river valley. These
GLOFs have adverse socioeconomic impacts and are massive
threats for downstream located elements at risk including,
human lives, infrastructure, natural forests, agriculture lands,
settlements, and other assets.
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
(ICIMOD) has developed an inventory of glaciers, glacier
lakes, and potential GLOFs affected by global warming in
mountains of Himalayan regions. Around 2,420 glacial lakes
are identified in the HKH region of Pakistan of which 52 lakes
are declared as potentially dangerous lakes [4]. This inventory
is very useful for study of GLOFs in the HKH region of
Pakistan. The proposed study is based on one of these
dangerous glacier lakes at the terminus of Passu Glacier in
Hunza Watershed. Passu Lake had two (02) outbursts in last
two (02) decades blocking Karakoram Highway (KKH) and
destroying settlements located along Hunza River [5]. Since
glacier lakes may burst abruptly without any prior history of
flooding and for that reason a continuous monitoring and
mapping, both spatial and temporal, is required to reduce the
devastating impact of such hazards. Remote Sensing and GIS
techniques along with hydraulic and hydrologic simulations
have a capacity to acquire information regarding status of
glaciers and glacier lakes at spatial and temporal resolutions
and to map flood extent. Several studies, around the world,
have already used satellite images for monitoring glaciers and
glacier lakes and hydraulic and hydrologic models (HEC-RAS,
HEC-GeoRAS, HEC-HMS, HEC-GeoHMS, Arc Hydro and
others) for GLOFs mapping [6], [7], [8], [9], [10]. Study of
GLOFs hazard in Hunza watershed of Pakistan using satellite
remote sensing, GIS, hydraulic and hydrologic tools is
proposed here.
C. Purpose and Significance
A broader area can be monitored or mapped utilizing
satellites data and extent of glaciers and presence of glacier
lakes can be detected at selected sites. The main purpose of this
research was monitoring, and risk and hazard mapping of
dangerous glacial lake in Hunza valley utilizing RS, GIS and
hydraulic/hydrology tools and techniques. Passu Lake has
natural drainage and apparently the probability of its outburst is
low [11] but the expected losses in case of GLOF are huge.
The outcomes of the proposed study are helpful to address
possible risks from future GLOFs events.
D. Addressing the Problem
The study presented in this paper includes temporal
mapping of glacial lake extent at the study area using RS and
GIS tools based on satellite images and available maps and
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reports. Passu Lake at Hunza river basin has a past history of
flooding at a random interval of 2-5 years. The severity of the
potential flooding of Passu Lake may be assessed for several
criteria like prior history of flooding, area, lake expansion rate,
surrounding environment, socio-economic parameters such as
economic activities in downstream river valleys, and
downstream settlements and infrastructure. Hydrologic tools
and hydraulic simulation models, integrated with GIS, were
used to perform watershed based analyses to delineate
catchment area and runoff flow pattern and flood mapping.
State-of-the-art software packages include, but not limited to,
ERDAS Imagine, ArcGIS 10, ArcHydro, HEC-GeoRAS and
HEC-RAS. Satellite data used in this study were derived from
various satellite systems (Landsat TM, and Advanced
Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer-
ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model). Salient features of
the proposed project are:
1. Hydrology and hydraulic modeling for delineation of
drainage basin and assessing impact of GLOF downstream
2. Identification of potential risk areas and element at
risks downstream due to flooding.
II. MATERIALS AND METHODS
A. Study Area
The northern Pakistan is a mountainous region and
numerous glaciers and glacial lakes are found in high
mountain range of Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region.
Glacier and glacial lakes have been a hazard to people and
property located downstream [12]. According to ICIMOD’s
inventory published in 2005, a total of 2,420 glacial lakes have
been identified in ten (10) river basins of HKH region of
Pakistan. The maximum glacial lakes are identified in Gilgit
River basin (614) followed by Indus (574), Swat (255) and
Shingo (238) River basins. In Gilgit River basin out of 614
glacial lakes, 380 lakes have been characterized as major lakes
which are about 62 % of the total lakes. These major lakes
contribute about 93 % of the lake area of the basin. Glacier
thinning and retreat in HKH region has resulted in the
formation of new glacial lakes, expansion of existing lakes
and glacier lakes outburst floods (GLOFs). There were 52
potentially dangerous lakes identified in Pakistani HKH
mountain ranges. The site selected for this study is Passu lake
in Hunza River watershed. Passu Lake is located at the
terminus of 38 Km long East-West oriented Passu glacier in
HKH region. Passu subwatershed within which Passu Lake is
situated was selected for floodplain mapping (Figure 1).
B. Methodology
1. Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling
Drainage basin, subbasins and stream network of Hunza
River watershed were delineated using 30 meter resolution
ASTER Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and Arc Hydro
software. Arc Hydro is a geospatial and temporal data model
for water resources that operates within Environmental
Systems Research Institute’s (ESRI) GIS mapping software
ArcGIS [13]. The DEM processing is necessary to remove
misleading elevation values and was done using ‘Fill Sink’
 Figure 1: Study Area

Figure 2: HEC-GeoRAS Geometry Layers

function of Arc Hydro. Watershed and stream network
delineation were performed with Arc Hydro after DEM
processing.
Hydraulic modeling of Passu Lake and Hunza River was
done for flood mapping and to evaluate the downstream impact
of GLOF. Hydraulic simulation models HEC-RAS and HEC-
GeoRAS were used for this purpose. HEC-RAS, developed by
the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering
Center (HEC), is designed to perform one-dimensional
hydraulic modeling [13]. Hunza River reach flowing through
Passu subwatershed was used for creating HEC-RAS geometry

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layers in HEC-GeoRAS that has GIS interfacing capabilities
(Figure 2). HEC-GeoRAS processes geospatial data in ArcGIS
for preparing geometric layers to be imported into HEC-RAS.
The layers created for this study were stream centerline,
channel banks, flow paths, and river cross sections.
The geometric layers created for this study were imported
in HEC-RAS for further analysis. HEC-RAS is capable of
analyzing both steady flow and unsteady flow data. For this
study steady flow data analysis was performed for calculating
flood inundation area and water depths at various predefined
cross sections. Manning roughness coefficient was arbitrary
selected as 0.03 for main channel and 0.04 for floodplain. A
higher roughness coefficient for floodplain was selected to
account for higher resistance to flow in vegetated areas.
Although a multiple number of flow profiles can be added in
the model but a single flow profile was used here based on
probable maximum discharge. For calculating flow or
discharge an empirical relationship developed by Huggel et al.
[14] was used where volume, V (in m3), of a glacial lake can
be expressed as a function of lake area A (in m2):
V = 0.104A1.42 (1)
The above relationship is based on glacial lakes data in
North America, South America, the Himalayas, Iceland, and
the European Alps [10]. Area of Passu Lake was determined by
digitizing the lake extent in April 2005 Google Earth image.
Comparing other images of different time periods (both Google
Earth and Landsat TM), the April 2005 image showed the
maximum lake area. More recent images were analyzed but
either the area was smaller or the images had cloud covers. The
lake area determined from 2005 Google Earth image was
125,300 m2. Using equation (1), the volume of Passu Lake was
estimated to be 1.8 x 106 m3. Equations (2) and (3) were used
to calculate maximum discharge assuming the worst case
scenario when a GLOF event will cause bursting out of all
water in the lake [7].
PE = 9800 x h x V (2)
0.6
Qmax = 0.00013 x PE (3)
Where:
h = Height of the moraine dam (approximately 46 m from the
top to the bottom of the dam, measured from Google Earth
image)
PE = Potential energy of the lake water (calculated to be 8.1 x
10 11 J)
Qmax = Maximum probable flow (calculated to be 1,817.6 m3/s)
After entering flow data, reach boundary conditions were
defined. Downstream slope of 0.004 m/m for normal depth
computation of reach was selected and model run command
was executed. The water surface profile data was exported
from HEC-RAS model and converted into GIS layers (flood
extent and inundation) by HEC-GeoRAS. Finally floodplain
delineation was done by subtracting the terrain grid (DEM)
from water surface grid for the given flow profile.
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2. Risk Mapping of Potential Risk Areas
Identification of potential risk areas downstream due to
flooding was done by overlapping the GIS layers of elements at
risk with flood inundation map. The elements at risk used for
this study were settlements and roads/highways. For future
studies, agricultural areas, trees and utilities will also be added
for risk evaluation.
III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Risk map was developed by overlay of element at risk layers
with flood map. Potential risk areas are shown in Figure 3.
Segments of Karakoram highway are within risk zones and few
settlements along the river have potential to get effected by
future GLOF events. Hunza River blockage due to landslide in
2010 had also resulted flooding in the area downstream of
Passu Lake. The flood water is still not completely drained out
and the situation may get worse if flood water after GLOF also
reaches there.
The flood inundation was based on moraine dam bursting
and releasing all water in the lake. Though this may be
considered as the worst case scenario but precipitation data
from extreme rain events has not been considered here and
therefore its influence is yet to be analyzed. Also high
resolution data should be used to refine this analysis that may
enhance the estimation of GIS data like lake area, dam height,
locations of elements at risk, and other related geometric
parameter.
IV. CONCLUSIONS
The proposed study will develop a mechanism for reliable and
cost effective monitoring of glacier lakes and GLOFs in near
real time, hazard mapping and risk and damage assessment
using advance geospatial hydrologic/hydraulic modeling
techniques. Knowledge of risk is essential for all disaster risk
reduction activities either these are through policies,
development planning, or other structural or non structural
control measures. Hazard and risk maps are used in all phases
of disaster management (DM); Mitigation, Preparedness,
Response and Recovery. The hazard and risk maps cannot stop
a disastrous phenomenon from happening but an effective use
of hazard maps can prevent an extreme event from becoming a
disaster. Sometimes it is not easy to avoid natural phenomena
causing disasters such as GLOFs, but a prior knowledge about
their nature and possible extent can develop a capacity of DM
authorities to respond and recover from emergency and disaster
events. Greater capacity to face these disasters also reduces
their impacts. The vulnerable areas include portions of
Karakoram Highway and some villages downstream to Passu
Lake along Hunza River. Any future GLOF event due to Passu
Lake outburst may cause damages to these elements. The
outcomes of this study will be helpful in reducing the adverse
impacts of future GLOFs events in Passu subwatershed and
will be useful for developing early warning systems in the
vulnerable areas.
 Figure 3: Risk Mapping of Passu subwatershed
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