Fallen-Angels-Stocks-Basket-March-2020-202004011250464255810

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 8

Basket of Fallen Angels Stocks 31 March 2020

RETAIL RESEARCH

We present herewith basket of Fallen Angels stocks (stocks that have fallen precipitously from highs and carry potential to recover from an apparent temporary setback),
which investors, based on their risk profile and return expectations, can invest in from a medium-term perspective. Though lumpsum investment can also be made in
these, considering the fact that the markets may not have made a sustainable bottom, one can look at taking the route of a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP).

These stocks have the potential to generate higher 15-18% p.a. return under SIP investing. The risks in investing in these stocks will also be more than that in defensive
stocks. We will review the basket from time to time and recommend changes in line with fundamental changes in the businesses or overall market sentiment.
Fallen Angels Stocks
No of Weight
shares % Book Change Change Last
in 1 Equity Mkt Value Net Sales in sales PAT in PAT EPS P/E Div Dividend
Sr No Company Industry basket Latest FV CMP Cap latest FY19 y-o-y FY19 y-o-y TTM TTM P/BV %. Yield
1 Bandhan Bank* Banks 4 8.0 1610.2 10 203.8 32808 87.1 6644.1 38.4% 1951.5 45.0% 19.6 10.4 2.3 30 1.2%
2 Cummins India Engines 3 9.7 55.4 2 326.7 9056 154.3 5564.6 11.7% 742.6 10.8% 25.4 12.9 2.1 850 5.2%
3 HPCL Refineries 5 9.4 1523.8 10 190.1 28968 198.2 274255.2 25.4% 6690.6 -7.3% 39.4 4.8 1.0 159 8.4%
4 Hero Motocorp Automobiles 1 15.7 40.0 2 1596.5 31889 724.4 33970.8 4.7% 3444.1 -7.4% 168.3 9.5 2.2 4350 5.4%
5 Hind.Zinc* Metal 5 7.7 845.1 2 155.4 65661 88.5 20834.0 -5.7% 7956.0 -12.6% 17.7 8.8 1.8 1000 12.9%
6 IndusInd Bank Banks 3 10.4 693.5 10 351.3 24364 469.0 22261.2 28.8% 3300.8 -8.5% 64.9 5.4 0.7 75 2.1%
7 Infosys Computers 2 12.6 2129.4 5 641.5 273207 142.9 82675.0 17.2% 15404.0 -3.9% 38.3 16.8 4.5 430 3.4%
8 ITC Cigarettes 5 8.5 1229.2 1 171.7 211057 47.6 49348.4 14.4% 12592.3 14.5% 12.3 14.0 3.6 575 3.3%
9 NTPC Power Generation 10 8.3 9894.6 10 84.2 83312 114.4 95742.0 8.7% 12640.0 19.9% 14.4 5.8 0.7 60.8 7.2%
10 Petronet LNG Gas Distribution 5 9.8 1500.0 10 199.7 29955 73.8 38395.4 25.5% 2230.6 5.7% 19.0 10.5 2.7 55 2.8%
Source: Capitaline Database, *= Standalone Number. All figures are consolidated and in Rs except for Equity, Sales FY19 and PAT FY19 which are in Rs Cr, CMP is as of 31-Mar-20, EPS is adjusted for extraordinary
items. Past dividend yield may not necessarily sustain in the future.

A brief write-up on ten stocks is given below:


Bandhan Bank (MCap Rs 32808 cr)
 Set up as Bandhan Financial Services Pvt. Ltd (BFSL) in 2006, BFSL was the largest NBFC-MFI in India until 2014 post which, it became the first entity to receive an in-
principle universal banking license from the Reserve Bank of India. After it commenced operations in August 2015, BFSL's entire microfinance portfolio was transferred
to Bandhan's book. The Bank is headquartered in Kolkata and offers group-based individual lending services for the microfinance business. It operates through a
network of 4,220 branches, doorstep service centres (DSCs), and GRUH centres, spread across 34 states and Union Territories.
 The strength of BBL lies in microfinance with a strong focus on serving underbanked and underpenetrated markets in India. BBL reaches its customers largely through
its extensive network of doorstep service centres, which are low overhead banking outlets located nearby to customers. Given their low overhead, DSCs are a cost
effective means of reaching micro loan customers, who generally are underbanked. Post the conversion to a bank, BBL has continued to grow its loan book at a strong
pace with a CAGR of 40% over FY15-Q3FY20.
 Although micro finance is going to remain the key segment for the bank, it is looking to grow its non-micro portfolio to diversify the asset book and increase granularity.
Post the merger with Gruh Finance, mortgages account for ~29% of the loan book and have become a focus area for the bank. Besides mortgages the bank has
diversified into SME, Retail (gold, vehicle) and NBFC loans and is looking to grow them to a commendable size. Non-micro loans had grown from ~9% of the loan book
in FY17 to ~14% in FY19.

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |1


RETAIL RESEARCH

 The combined entity of BBL and Gruh Finance would get synergy benefits from the fact that BBL is not into housing finance and would bring a completely new set of
business perspectives. The branches of Gruh are mostly in Western India while BBL is focused on East and North East India.
 BBL has been able to build a strong deposit franchise within a short period of time. Total deposits have grown at a phenomenal pace to Rs 54,908cr at the end of
Q3FY20 while CASA deposits stood at Rs 18839cr giving a CASA ratio of 34.3%. With the recent removal of restriction on opening new branches by RBI, CASA ratio is
likely to improve further aiding NIM expansion.
 BBL has entered into tie-ups with mutual fund houses and insurance companies to distribute their products through its branches. It is also looking to leverage its
strong PSL (priority sector loans)-compliant portfolio by increasingly selling PSL certificates to non-PSL compliant banks.
 The stock has corrected by ~50% since its Q3FY20 results on perceived stress in its microfinance book and the general risk averse behavior of investors following the
coronavirus scare.
 Slowdown in the economy could result in elevated NPAs. Also the unrest seen in the state of Assam could spread to other states impacting its asset quality, profitability
and return ratios.

Cummins India (MCap Rs 9056 cr)


 Cummins India Limited is a manufacturer of diesel and natural gas engines, generator sets and related services. The company operates through two segments: Engines
and Lubes. Its three businesses include Engine Business, Power Systems Business and Distribution Business. The Engine Business manufactures and markets diesel
and natural gas engines from 65 horsepower (HP) to 500 HP. These engines power heavy and medium-duty trucks, light-duty trucks and buses, in addition to industrial
applications, such as construction and military equipment.
 The Power Systems Business designs and manufactures high horsepower engines for railways, mining and power generation applications. It caters to the power
requirements of a range of individual and institutional customers in various segments, such as infrastructure and hospitality. The Distribution Business, operating
under the brand name Cummins Sales and Service India (CSS), provides products, services and solutions for uptime of its equipment.
 Cummins’ expansion in its product basket provide a medium-long term perspective. Few launches are- Stallion series for PG market with uprated and more powerful
engines; Under slung power car for rail market; Railway products to tap into the shortfall of propulsion equipment; Marine engine portfolio—240HP NT855—Kothrud;
Mining products for OEMs such as BEML for coal mining: 100–240 tonne range.
 Cost cutting initiatives (including VRS) will uplift the margins, given the current economic/global/socio-political scenario. Further, returns structure has remained
healthy, and Cummins have managed to retain its market share (>50% in mid-large DG sets).
 Various ongoing projects under Metro rail, Railways (~40-50% of IBU now), road construction, mining, marine, water well rigs could be the main demand drivers for
3-5 years. Cummins’ huge installed base (> 3.5 lakh DG sets) in India is a key driver; rising IBU growth also augurs well for long-term growth.
 High diesel dependency in the portfolio is a weakness for Cummins. Weak auto sector continues to wreck the whole demand situation on domestic a well as the
international markets with ME and Africa witnessing 50% reduction in demand, Brazil (30%), China (20%), Europe (30%) and UK (20%) YoY. In the domestic market,
weakness continues across segments (Powergen, Industrial, Distribution) on the back of slowdown in the economic activity. Further, the coronavirus outbreak, across
the world has aggravated situation, with markets tumbling down, as the cases increase, with increasing death rates. The stock price has fallen 35%+ over the past 4-
6 weeks.

HPCL (MCap Rs 28968 cr)


 HPCL is an integrated refining and marketing company and has substantial oil marketing operations. It is the third-largest oil refining and marketing company in India.
It owns and operates two refineries, one in Mumbai with a 7.5 million metric tonnes per annum (MMTPA) capacity and another one in Visakhapatnam with 8.3

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |2


RETAIL RESEARCH

MMTPA capacity. These refineries account for ~6.4% of the country's total installed capacity. The company also has 11.3 MMTPA refinery in Bathinda through a 49:51
JV with Singapore-based Mittal Energy Investments Pvt Ltd.
 Since both the refineries are located on the coasts, the company enjoys logistical benefits in terms of lower costs and time taken to transport the imported crude to
the refineries and to send refined products to dealer locations. This also lowers the company’s inventory requirement to a significant extent when compared to other
OMCs with inland refineries.
 HPCL is doubling its existing capacity at the Vizag refinery from 8.3 MMTPA to 15 MMTPA by FY21 (Outlay Rs 210bn) and increasing it from the current 7.5 MMTPA
to 9.5 MMTPA (Outlay Rs 50bn) at its Mumbai refinery, both of which are expected to commission in FY21. The company is in the midst of aggressive capex plans of
more than Rs 700bn (including investments in JVs) outlined for the period between FY19 and FY23.
 HPCL’s capex plans include the implementation of major projects such as capacity expansion at both its refineries, expansion of its pipeline network and setting up of
new pipelines. The company would also have significant equity contribution towards key JV projects including the refinery-cum-petrochemical complex in Rajasthan
(74% stake) and the setting up of an LNG terminal in Gujarat (50% stake). HPCL’s long term capex plan could help to boost its market share as well as revenue going
forward. Palanpur-Vadodara Pipeline commissioned with a carrying capacity of 8mtpa. Additionally, a Greenfield Marketing Terminal is being setup at Vadodara with
fully automated rail and road tanker loading facilities.
 Crude oil prices have recently fallen to their lowest in nearly three months after failed decision of production cut by OPEC nations, stoking fears about global economic
growth. Trade tiff of US with China has led to fears of further slowing down of global economy which could impact crude oil demand and hence its prices. The sharp
drop in global crude prices in the last few weeks (correction in oil prices from ~US$45/bbl to US$22-25/bbl) provided respite to OMCs will allow the OMCs to raise
margins. Now onwards, normative margins could be restored allowing HPCL to be the largest beneficiary as its earnings are highly sensitive to changes in the marketing
margins.
 Coronavirus outbreak has impacted industry demand and HPCL has to face volatility in oil prices; Its stock fallen 25% over the past 4-6 weeks.
 Significant new capacity expansions are coming on line over the next 12 months which will limit the upside in GRMs that dropped substantially to USD 1.79/bbl (vs.
USD 3.72/bbl in Q3FY19), on the back of lower cracks of FO and LPG along with planned shut-downs. HPCL may continue to face regulatory risk on the pricing of
sensitive petroleum products as seen in the recent intervention by the GoI in October 2018 to reduce selling prices of Motor Spirit (MS) and High Speed Diesel (HSD).

Hero Motocorp (MCap Rs 31889 cr)


 Hero MotoCorp Limited is a two-wheeler manufacturer. The Company manufactures and sells motorized two wheelers up to 350 cubic centimeters (cc) engine
capacity, spare parts and related services. Its products include Karizma ZMR, Karizma, Xtreme Sports, Xtreme, Hunk, Impulse, Achiever, Ignitor, Glamour Programmed
FI, Glamour, Super Splendor, Passion XPRO, iSmart 110, Passion PRO, Passion PRO TR, Splendor iSmart, Splendor PRO Classic, Splendor PRO, Splendor+, HF Deluxe
ECO, HF Deluxe, HF Dawn, Duet, Maestro Edge, Maestro and Pleasure.
 It offers over 20 products comprising 100 cubic centimeters (CC), 110CC, 125CC, 150CC, 225CC and scooter category. Its manufacturing plants are located in
Dharuhera, Haryana; Gurgaon, Haryana; Haridwar, Uttarakhand; Neemrana, Rajasthan, and Villa Rica, Colombia. Its research and development center is located in
Jaipur, Rajasthan. It has a Global Parts Centre for manufacturing and supplying the parts at local and global markets at Neemrana, Rajasthan. It has capex plans of Rs
10,000cr in the next 5-7 years, coupled with its Centre of Innovative Technology (CIT) in Jaipur (India) and Hero Tech Centre in Germany.
 Premiumisation, and new launches are going to help the company gain market share. On this context the company is all set to launch Xtreme160R, which will be a
step towards this direction. Along with premiumisation, and new launches, the company is also focusing on entering into areas like Battery charging/swapping, which
will intensify its offerings.
 On the back of high inventory levels, the company has however, managed to curb its receivables which, has gotten back to normal levels. This will improve the working
capital cycle to some extent. Hero’s claims of completely OBD (On-board diagnostics) compliant fuel injection regulations are to be rolled out soon.

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |3


RETAIL RESEARCH

 Ongoing sluggishness in the auto sector on both national and international levels (especially in Europe), clubbed with COVID-19 outbreak, is making investors even
more apprehensive, resulting in its stock price fall of 30% over the past 4-6 weeks. The company is grappling with inventory build-up in few of its outlets in the Eastern
zone of the country. Dealer discounts at a range of Rs 1-2K combined with company discounts within a range of 3-5K, are still not helping push the sales. All these will
show up in the cost structure, thereby, affecting the margins in the coming quarter. Shift to BS-VI norms from April 2020 could bring some more uncertainty in the
near term. Hero Motocorp has large exposure to low power motorcycles and rural sector. A revival in income levels of consumers in this space is essential for better
times for the company.

Hindustan Zinc (MCap Rs 65661 cr)


 Hindustan Zinc is India’s largest and world’s second largest zinc-lead miner with more than 50 years of operational experience. It is a subsidiary of Vedanta Limited
which owns 63.2% stake in the Company while the Government of India retains a 29.54% stake. With reserve base of 105.7 million MT with an average zinc-lead grade
of 10.5% and mineral resources of 305.6 million MT, it has a mining life of over 25 years. HZL is among the Top 10 silver producers globally with an annual capacity of
600 MT.
 HZL is looking to raise its zinc mining capacity to 1.5 million MT in phases, from the current 0.8 million MT by investing ~Rs 14000cr. The first leg to raise the capacity
to 1.2 million MT was scheduled to be completed by Q4FY20. The global average for zinc content in cars is 80-90% while in India-made cars, it is 15-30%. Due to this,
there is big consumption growth potential for zinc in the domestic car segment alone.
 The government has issued regulations in certain areas to use galvanised steel in coastal infrastructure projects for safety purpose and longer lifecycle. The Govt is
looking to sell its holding in the company which could materialize in the coming financial year. This could drive the share prices higher.
 A push to modernize Indian Railways by using galvanized (zinc coated) steel for rails could boost the outlook for zinc. The company also plans to raise its exposure in
high premium value-added products to 50 per cent, from the current 25 per cent.
 HZL, the ninth-largest silver producer in the world plans to become the world’s second-largest global silver producer, after Fresnillo plc. by more than doubling its
production in the next five years.
 The stock has corrected by ~30% in the past 4-6 weeks as slowdown in economic growth is likely to delay projects and curtail demand for the company’s products.
 The prices of zinc, lead and silver – key products of the company – have been on a correction mode in the last 1 year and with global slowdown they might correct
further before moving up. This could severely impact the company’s profitability as global prices are not under its control and may also delay its expansion plans.

Indusind Bank (MCap Rs 24364 cr)


 Established in 1994, Indusind Bank is the seventh largest bank in terms of market capitalization. As of Dec-2019 the bank had a network of 1851 branches spread
across India with representative offices in London, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and conducted business of over Rs 4 lakh crore.
 Over the last decade the bank has diversified from being primarily a vehicle financier to include personal loans, credit cards, LAP and microfinance. Although the share
of auto loans is till the largest among retail assets, it is focusing on growing the non-auto book in the coming years.
 IIB registered a ~23/5% growth in deposits, led by a ~20/7% growth in CASA deposits (~42% of overall deposits, +100bps QoQ). This low cost deposit base enables the
bank to earn healthy NIMs which increased by 32bps yoy in Q3FY20 to 4.15%.
 Sumant Kathpalia, the head of consumer banking at the Bank, will take over from Romesh Sobti as the new Managing Director and CEO of the bank from March 24.
 Although the slippages were higher in Q3FY20, IIB also saw high recoveries in its corporate book particularly from one of its exposure to 3 stressed groups resulting
in stable asset quality. The promoters have assured that they are fully backing the lender and it does not require capital for the next two years.
 The stock has corrected by ~70% over the past 4-6 weeks on concerns about the bank’s health as it has exposures to troubled groups which led to an increase in NPAs
in the last quarter.

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |4


RETAIL RESEARCH

 The Bank’s exposure to potential stressed group and unlikely slippages from the sectors other than disclosed in the December quarter are risks that it faces. Asset
quality of corporate book will remain an overhang in the near term. Moody’s recently lowered the bank’s outlook to negative from stable while affirming the rating
on account of deterioration in asset quality.

Infosys (MCap Rs 273207 cr)


 Infosys is a leading provider of consulting, technology, outsourcing and next-generation digital services, enabling clients to execute strategies for their digital
transformation. The company has a comprehensive list of clients of Fortune 500 companies across different verticals and across geographies.
 Infosys has a diversified range of offerings across service segments and industry verticals. It has steadily increased the share of revenue from digital services, (38.3%
of revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 2020 compared with 25.8% in fiscal 2018) which comprise offerings based on artificial intelligence, big data, Internet of
Things (IoT), cloud applications, and advanced cyber security systems, driven by better client acceptance of its digital products and services.
 Financial flexibility is strong, supported by robust liquidity in the form of cash and cash equivalent of Rs 26,403 crore as on December 31, 2019. Despite the acceleration
in capital return program, liquidity will remain robust supported by sufficient funds to finance working capital and capital expenditure (capex) requirement over the
medium term.
 Infosys's business risk profile is supported by its leading market position, large scale of operations with a skilled resource base of 2,43,454 employees (as on December
31, 2019), proven project execution skills, and strong offshore delivery capability. Revenue growth has been moderate at 10.4%, with constant currency growth of
9.7% during the first nine months of fiscal 2020, supported by total contract value of large deals (greater than USD 50 million) of USD 7.4 billion as on December 31,
2019.
 The continued strength in large deal wins despite a cautious environment and the revenue growth guidance upgrade indicates business as usual at Infosys despite
the whistle blower related distractions. There were neither any negative client repercussions nor has the time taken for large deal sign-offs increased due to this
episode.
 The US, UK, Europe and Australia i.e. the big 4 markets for the Information Technology are dealing with looming threats of a slowdown and client have cut down their
spending in information technology too causing a slowdown in the business. Stock has ramped down ~25% over the past 4-6 weeks.
 Outcome of SEC investigation and class action lawsuit in the US on the letter accusing the company's chief executive officer Salil Parekh of indulging in misdeeds will
be keenly watched.
 The current moderation in discretionary spending by large clients has impacted revenue growth in the IT industry, especially in traditional outsourcing services. The
slowdown in IT spend by global clients and the consequent decline in contract value in the industry has intensified competition among players. Infosys derives around
40% of revenue from digital services and 60% from traditional IT services.

ITC Ltd (MCap Rs 211057 cr)


 ITC is one of the leading FMCG companies and largest cigarette manufacturer and seller in India. ITC operates in five business segments at present —Cigarettes,
FMCG, Hotels, Paperboards, Paper and Packaging, and Agri Business. ITC is the market leader in the organized domestic cigarette industry, with a market share of
over 80%. ITC’s Cigarettes contributes ~46% to ITC’s segment revenue, followed by FMCG-Others at ~25%, agri-business at ~12%, paper and paperboards at ~9% and
hotels at ~4% in FY19.
 ITC has been successful in foods and is expanding its personal product portfolio (soaps, shampoos, deo, talc). Though the cigarettes division is still the major source
of revenue, other businesses - FMCG, agri, paper and hotel have grown over the years. ITC’s FMCG business has shown good operating profitability in FY19 onwards.
 ITC has significantly improved its FMCG EBITDA margins from 5% in 9MFY19 to 6.8% in 9MFY20 driven by better traction of foods business. ITC is likely to continue its
upward margin trend and reach double digit levels by FY21E-FY22E in FMCG business.

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |5


RETAIL RESEARCH

 With ITC‘s strong and wide distribution network at 6 million outlets, we believe FMCG sector would stand to gain as it enters into newer categories with different
product offerings.
 Stock has fallen ~23% in last 4-6 weeks due to recent increase in NCC duty on cigarettes, price hike across various categories of cigarette and consumption slowdown
in FMCG products. Apart from this, COVID-19 impacted its hotel business due to lesser tourists and visitors arrival in India. Cigarette volumes continued to see muted
volume growth of 2-3% growth vs. ~10% volume growth of VST Industries. ITC is losing market share as contribution of smaller size cigarettes is increasing and VST
Industries & Godfrey are gaining volumes at expense of ITC.

NTPC (MCap Rs 83312 cr)


 NTPC Limited is engaged in the generation (largely coal-based thermal) and sale of electricity. The Company's other business includes providing consultancy, project
management, and supervision, re-gasification, oil and gas exploration and coal mining.
 The Company has an installed capacity of 47,178 megawatts (MW), including joint ventures (JVs) with over 18 coal-based, seven gas-based stations, and one hydro -
based station. It also holds approximately nine renewable energy projects.
 With commercialization on track, capitalisation is expected to outpace CAPEX, during FY20-21. Fixed-cost (F/C) recoveries, higher surcharge income, and higher other
income (due to income from late payment surcharge), offset the decline of 0.3% (consolidated) in revenue during the third quarter of FY20.
 Tariff regulations for FY20-24, at 15.5% RoE, and a two part tariff structure remains intact, keeping the return ratios unhampered. This provides a strong visibility for
long-term returns.
 NTPC’s board has given in-principal approval to acquire government's 100% stake in North Eastern Electric Power Corporation Ltd (NEEPCO: a Central Public sector
enterprise, owned by GoI (100% holding) and generates power mainly for supply to North-Eastern states of India) and 74.5% stake in THDC India Ltd (a J.V. between
GoI and Government of Uttar Pradesh with a 75:25 equity holding). Both companies have aggregate operational capacity of 3GW (2.5GW hydro and 0.5GW gas). This
merger will help expand the company’s operations, and add hydro power assets to NTPC’s largely coal dominated asset base. Importantly, about 2GW of hydro
capacity is at a relatively advanced stage of completion (about Rs 20bn in equity already spent). This along with a 1.3GW cost-plus Khurja thermal project (Rs 110bn
project cost) will further boost NTPC’s capacity profile.
 The recent COVID-19 scare took a toll, all over the share market, on both national and international levels, which led to the ~23% fall in the price of the stock over the
past 4-6 weeks.
 Coal production in Coal India Ltd’s mines (Talcher, Korba coal fields) during the first half i.e. pre monsoon period was quite low although production has improved,
post monsoon. Moreover, lack of coal availability at its non-pithead plants (such as Kudgi and Mauda) is also a rising concern, as fuel availability is a crucial requirement
for the thermal plants.

Petronet LNG (MCap Rs 29955 cr)


 Petronet LNG is primarily engaged in business of develop, design, construct, own and operate Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import and regasification terminals in India.
It is a joint venture of GAIL, ONGC, IOCL, and BPCL; each have 12.5% equity share totalling 50%, with the balance held by the public.
 Petronet controls nearly 40% of the domestic RLNG capacity, which includes its flagship terminal at Dahej (Gujarat), with capacity of 17.5 million tonne per annum
(mtpa; the largest and oldest facility in India) and a 5-mtpa terminal in Kochi (Kerala).
 Petronet has an established track record and strong relationships with suppliers (RasLaffan Liquefied Natural Gas Co Ltd, Qatar) and intermediate offtakers such as
Gail India Ltd, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. While domestic regasification capacity is likely to increase over the medium term,
Petronet may retain its dominant position in the RLNG business.

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |6


RETAIL RESEARCH

 Petronet plans to incur a capex of Rs 350cr in FY21E and spend Rs. 65cr to build two new tanks at Dahej terminal. It is also planning to invest Rs 126cr on building LNG
stations. Kochi terminal is currently operating at 17% capacity due to lack of pipeline connectivity. Kochi terminal is expected to ramp up after opening of the Kochi
Mangalore pipeline which is scheduled to be completed by March 2020 and expected to achieve 30-35% of capacity after commissioning.
 Despite a favourable crude oil price scenario, demand could go down due to a mix of economic slowdown, extended monsoon, sluggish vehicle sales. The stock
tumbled ~25% in last 4-6 weeks.
 The Kochi terminal was commissioned in September 2013, with about 30% capacity tied up in contractual agreements. However, it faces ramp-up risks due to absence
of pipeline connecting the terminal to Bengaluru and Mangaluru. The terminal currently offers value-added services, including bunkering, storage and reload, gassing
up, and cooling down. If crude prices remain low for an extended period, LNG may become uncompetitive especially if LNG prices bottom out earlier.

Bandhan Bank Cummins India HPCL Hero Motocorp


800 1000 400 3000
600 800 300 2500
600 2000
400 400 200 1500
200 200 100 1000

Hind. Zinc Indusind Bank Infosys ITC

300 2000 1000 400


250 1600 800 300
200 1200
150 800 600 200
100 400 400 100

NTPC Petronet LNG


150 300
120 250
200
90 150
60 100

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |7


RETAIL RESEARCH

Stock Analyst Educational Qualification Holding


Bandhan Bank Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
Cummins India Debanjana Chatterjee Msc (Economics), MBA No
HPCL Abdul Karim MBA No
Hero Motocorp Debanjana Chatterjee Msc (Economics), MBA No
Hind.Zinc Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
IndusInd Bank Atul Karwa MMS Finance No
Infosys Abdul Karim MBA No
ITC Abdul Karim MBA No
NTPC Debanjana Chatterjee Msc (Economics), MBA No
Petronet LNG Abdul Karim MBA No

Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by HDFC Securities Ltd and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at, based upon
information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy,
completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities
mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments.
This report is not directed to, or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other
jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject HSL or its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within
such jurisdiction.
If this report is inadvertently sent or has reached any person in such country, especially, United States of America, the same should be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be
reproduced, distributed or published in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, for any purposes or in any manner.
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which could have an adverse effect on their value or price, or the income derived from them. In addition,
investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk.
It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. HSL may from time to time solicit from, or perform broking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this mail
and/or its attachments.
HSL and its affiliated company(ies), their directors and employees may; (a) from time to time, have a long or short position in, and buy or sell the securities of the company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in
any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or act as an advisor or
lender/borrower to such company(ies) or may have any other potential conflict of interests with respect to any recommendation and other related information and opinions.
HSL, its directors, analysts or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this report, including
but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
HSL and other group companies, its directors, associates, employees may have various positions in any of the stocks, securities and financial instruments dealt in the report, or may make sell or purchase or other deals
in these securities from time to time or may deal in other securities of the companies / organizations described in this report.

HSL or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.
HSL or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from t date of this report for services in respect of managing or
co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction in the normal course of business.
HSL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither HSL nor
Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage
service transactions. HSL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We have not received any
compensation/benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the Research Report.

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496
5066, Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: complianceofficer@hdfcsec.com Phone: (022) 3045 3600
HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX: INZ000186937; AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549; PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 11092018; IRDA Corporate Agent License No.: CA0062; SEBI Research Analyst Reg.
No.: INH000002475; SEBI Investment Adviser Reg. No.: INA000011538; CIN - U67120MH2000PLC152193

RETAIL RESEARCH Page |8

You might also like