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Fallen-Angels-Stocks-Basket-March-2020-202004011250464255810
Fallen-Angels-Stocks-Basket-March-2020-202004011250464255810
Fallen-Angels-Stocks-Basket-March-2020-202004011250464255810
RETAIL RESEARCH
We present herewith basket of Fallen Angels stocks (stocks that have fallen precipitously from highs and carry potential to recover from an apparent temporary setback),
which investors, based on their risk profile and return expectations, can invest in from a medium-term perspective. Though lumpsum investment can also be made in
these, considering the fact that the markets may not have made a sustainable bottom, one can look at taking the route of a Systematic Investment Plan (SIP).
These stocks have the potential to generate higher 15-18% p.a. return under SIP investing. The risks in investing in these stocks will also be more than that in defensive
stocks. We will review the basket from time to time and recommend changes in line with fundamental changes in the businesses or overall market sentiment.
Fallen Angels Stocks
No of Weight
shares % Book Change Change Last
in 1 Equity Mkt Value Net Sales in sales PAT in PAT EPS P/E Div Dividend
Sr No Company Industry basket Latest FV CMP Cap latest FY19 y-o-y FY19 y-o-y TTM TTM P/BV %. Yield
1 Bandhan Bank* Banks 4 8.0 1610.2 10 203.8 32808 87.1 6644.1 38.4% 1951.5 45.0% 19.6 10.4 2.3 30 1.2%
2 Cummins India Engines 3 9.7 55.4 2 326.7 9056 154.3 5564.6 11.7% 742.6 10.8% 25.4 12.9 2.1 850 5.2%
3 HPCL Refineries 5 9.4 1523.8 10 190.1 28968 198.2 274255.2 25.4% 6690.6 -7.3% 39.4 4.8 1.0 159 8.4%
4 Hero Motocorp Automobiles 1 15.7 40.0 2 1596.5 31889 724.4 33970.8 4.7% 3444.1 -7.4% 168.3 9.5 2.2 4350 5.4%
5 Hind.Zinc* Metal 5 7.7 845.1 2 155.4 65661 88.5 20834.0 -5.7% 7956.0 -12.6% 17.7 8.8 1.8 1000 12.9%
6 IndusInd Bank Banks 3 10.4 693.5 10 351.3 24364 469.0 22261.2 28.8% 3300.8 -8.5% 64.9 5.4 0.7 75 2.1%
7 Infosys Computers 2 12.6 2129.4 5 641.5 273207 142.9 82675.0 17.2% 15404.0 -3.9% 38.3 16.8 4.5 430 3.4%
8 ITC Cigarettes 5 8.5 1229.2 1 171.7 211057 47.6 49348.4 14.4% 12592.3 14.5% 12.3 14.0 3.6 575 3.3%
9 NTPC Power Generation 10 8.3 9894.6 10 84.2 83312 114.4 95742.0 8.7% 12640.0 19.9% 14.4 5.8 0.7 60.8 7.2%
10 Petronet LNG Gas Distribution 5 9.8 1500.0 10 199.7 29955 73.8 38395.4 25.5% 2230.6 5.7% 19.0 10.5 2.7 55 2.8%
Source: Capitaline Database, *= Standalone Number. All figures are consolidated and in Rs except for Equity, Sales FY19 and PAT FY19 which are in Rs Cr, CMP is as of 31-Mar-20, EPS is adjusted for extraordinary
items. Past dividend yield may not necessarily sustain in the future.
The combined entity of BBL and Gruh Finance would get synergy benefits from the fact that BBL is not into housing finance and would bring a completely new set of
business perspectives. The branches of Gruh are mostly in Western India while BBL is focused on East and North East India.
BBL has been able to build a strong deposit franchise within a short period of time. Total deposits have grown at a phenomenal pace to Rs 54,908cr at the end of
Q3FY20 while CASA deposits stood at Rs 18839cr giving a CASA ratio of 34.3%. With the recent removal of restriction on opening new branches by RBI, CASA ratio is
likely to improve further aiding NIM expansion.
BBL has entered into tie-ups with mutual fund houses and insurance companies to distribute their products through its branches. It is also looking to leverage its
strong PSL (priority sector loans)-compliant portfolio by increasingly selling PSL certificates to non-PSL compliant banks.
The stock has corrected by ~50% since its Q3FY20 results on perceived stress in its microfinance book and the general risk averse behavior of investors following the
coronavirus scare.
Slowdown in the economy could result in elevated NPAs. Also the unrest seen in the state of Assam could spread to other states impacting its asset quality, profitability
and return ratios.
MMTPA capacity. These refineries account for ~6.4% of the country's total installed capacity. The company also has 11.3 MMTPA refinery in Bathinda through a 49:51
JV with Singapore-based Mittal Energy Investments Pvt Ltd.
Since both the refineries are located on the coasts, the company enjoys logistical benefits in terms of lower costs and time taken to transport the imported crude to
the refineries and to send refined products to dealer locations. This also lowers the company’s inventory requirement to a significant extent when compared to other
OMCs with inland refineries.
HPCL is doubling its existing capacity at the Vizag refinery from 8.3 MMTPA to 15 MMTPA by FY21 (Outlay Rs 210bn) and increasing it from the current 7.5 MMTPA
to 9.5 MMTPA (Outlay Rs 50bn) at its Mumbai refinery, both of which are expected to commission in FY21. The company is in the midst of aggressive capex plans of
more than Rs 700bn (including investments in JVs) outlined for the period between FY19 and FY23.
HPCL’s capex plans include the implementation of major projects such as capacity expansion at both its refineries, expansion of its pipeline network and setting up of
new pipelines. The company would also have significant equity contribution towards key JV projects including the refinery-cum-petrochemical complex in Rajasthan
(74% stake) and the setting up of an LNG terminal in Gujarat (50% stake). HPCL’s long term capex plan could help to boost its market share as well as revenue going
forward. Palanpur-Vadodara Pipeline commissioned with a carrying capacity of 8mtpa. Additionally, a Greenfield Marketing Terminal is being setup at Vadodara with
fully automated rail and road tanker loading facilities.
Crude oil prices have recently fallen to their lowest in nearly three months after failed decision of production cut by OPEC nations, stoking fears about global economic
growth. Trade tiff of US with China has led to fears of further slowing down of global economy which could impact crude oil demand and hence its prices. The sharp
drop in global crude prices in the last few weeks (correction in oil prices from ~US$45/bbl to US$22-25/bbl) provided respite to OMCs will allow the OMCs to raise
margins. Now onwards, normative margins could be restored allowing HPCL to be the largest beneficiary as its earnings are highly sensitive to changes in the marketing
margins.
Coronavirus outbreak has impacted industry demand and HPCL has to face volatility in oil prices; Its stock fallen 25% over the past 4-6 weeks.
Significant new capacity expansions are coming on line over the next 12 months which will limit the upside in GRMs that dropped substantially to USD 1.79/bbl (vs.
USD 3.72/bbl in Q3FY19), on the back of lower cracks of FO and LPG along with planned shut-downs. HPCL may continue to face regulatory risk on the pricing of
sensitive petroleum products as seen in the recent intervention by the GoI in October 2018 to reduce selling prices of Motor Spirit (MS) and High Speed Diesel (HSD).
Ongoing sluggishness in the auto sector on both national and international levels (especially in Europe), clubbed with COVID-19 outbreak, is making investors even
more apprehensive, resulting in its stock price fall of 30% over the past 4-6 weeks. The company is grappling with inventory build-up in few of its outlets in the Eastern
zone of the country. Dealer discounts at a range of Rs 1-2K combined with company discounts within a range of 3-5K, are still not helping push the sales. All these will
show up in the cost structure, thereby, affecting the margins in the coming quarter. Shift to BS-VI norms from April 2020 could bring some more uncertainty in the
near term. Hero Motocorp has large exposure to low power motorcycles and rural sector. A revival in income levels of consumers in this space is essential for better
times for the company.
The Bank’s exposure to potential stressed group and unlikely slippages from the sectors other than disclosed in the December quarter are risks that it faces. Asset
quality of corporate book will remain an overhang in the near term. Moody’s recently lowered the bank’s outlook to negative from stable while affirming the rating
on account of deterioration in asset quality.
With ITC‘s strong and wide distribution network at 6 million outlets, we believe FMCG sector would stand to gain as it enters into newer categories with different
product offerings.
Stock has fallen ~23% in last 4-6 weeks due to recent increase in NCC duty on cigarettes, price hike across various categories of cigarette and consumption slowdown
in FMCG products. Apart from this, COVID-19 impacted its hotel business due to lesser tourists and visitors arrival in India. Cigarette volumes continued to see muted
volume growth of 2-3% growth vs. ~10% volume growth of VST Industries. ITC is losing market share as contribution of smaller size cigarettes is increasing and VST
Industries & Godfrey are gaining volumes at expense of ITC.
Petronet plans to incur a capex of Rs 350cr in FY21E and spend Rs. 65cr to build two new tanks at Dahej terminal. It is also planning to invest Rs 126cr on building LNG
stations. Kochi terminal is currently operating at 17% capacity due to lack of pipeline connectivity. Kochi terminal is expected to ramp up after opening of the Kochi
Mangalore pipeline which is scheduled to be completed by March 2020 and expected to achieve 30-35% of capacity after commissioning.
Despite a favourable crude oil price scenario, demand could go down due to a mix of economic slowdown, extended monsoon, sluggish vehicle sales. The stock
tumbled ~25% in last 4-6 weeks.
The Kochi terminal was commissioned in September 2013, with about 30% capacity tied up in contractual agreements. However, it faces ramp-up risks due to absence
of pipeline connecting the terminal to Bengaluru and Mangaluru. The terminal currently offers value-added services, including bunkering, storage and reload, gassing
up, and cooling down. If crude prices remain low for an extended period, LNG may become uncompetitive especially if LNG prices bottom out earlier.
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