Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Land Use Policy

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/landusepol

Shaping energy transition at municipal scale: A net-zero energy scenario- T

based approach
Francesca Poggia,*, Ana Firminoa, Miguel Amadob
a
CICS.NOVA - Centro Interdisciplinar de Ciências Sociais, Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna, 26-C, 1069-061,
Lisbon, Portugal
b
CERIS-Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal

A R T I C LE I N FO A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In recent years, it has become apparent that both policymaking and planning need to promote energy transition,
Policy development linking its spatial dimensions to the sustainable development of territories. However, the interactions and im-
Spatial planning plication of this process for urban and rural regions are uncertain, dynamic and complex, increasing pressure on
Renewable energy local actors. This study focusses on the municipal scale, developing a Net-Zero Energy scenario-based approach
Energy consumption
to strengthening the integration of renewable energy production and energy efficiency into the formulation of
GIS
Energy self-reliance
policies and spatial planning. Here, the concept of energy balance is adopted to plan the municipality as a self-
reliant system able to anticipate and adapt to future transformations and changes associated with energy
transition. Using as a case study a Portuguese municipality with 73 % of land occupied by rural areas and about
27 % by urbanised areas, the method qualifies and quantifies the spatial relationships associated with the energy
balance, combining energy statistics with Land Use dataset and vectorial layers, in a GIS environment. Results
reveal how shaping energy transition depends on the understanding of both the spatial and functional dimen-
sions of urban and rural land-use, which should be the core focus to developing incremental and adaptive place-
based policies toward net-zero energy municipalities.

1. Introduction generate new patterns of uneven development. In that regard, they

After more than three decades on from the Brundtland Report
(1987), the debate on energy issues remains unchanged: “a safe and
sustainable energy pathway is crucial to sustainable development; we
have not yet found it” (WCED, 1987:29). In this context of enduring
uncertainty and growing public concerns on the unsustainability of the
energy system (i.e. air and soil pollution, global warming and resource
depletion), the latest European Climate-Energy strategy emerges as a
concerted vision to create a sense of direction and plan for Carbon
Neutrality by 2050 (European Commission, 2018). Nevertheless, this
complex challenge deals with a set of overriding priorities. The tran-
sition toward low-energy paths, whose technical and operational de-
velopment reaches to scales of intervention much larger than the space
of a single project, is one of them. In other words, the planning of smart
local organisations through energy integration techniques cannot be
assessed as an isolated problem but an integrated one (Ceglia et al.,
2020).
Bridge et al. (2013) refer that taken together, the locations, land-
scapes and territorialisation associated with an energy transition will
provide relevant insights on how geography can offer a conceptual
language for systematically working through the spatialities of the en-
ergy transition. Huber (2015) speculates further, suggesting that any
planning or concern for an energy transition to renewable or alternative
energy must put the space at the centre of the conversation. In this
framework, a progressive alignment among policymaking and spatial
planning, which are both involved in defining energy-development
strategies, is evident in a range of scientific studies.
Here, the starting point of the analysis runs throughout the under-
standing of cities as nodes of energy consumption (Rees and
Wackernagel, 1996). In light of this, an urgent need for an urban
change emerged, dealing with the overall ambition to achieve new
models of cities that are low-carbon, environmentally and economically
sustainable (Becchio et al., 2018). In this vein, the work of Huang and
Castán Broto (2018) leads to introduce the concept of experimentation
that enable the generation of alternatives to explore urban energy
transitions. This framework indicates that the complex interactions
between urban processes and energy transitions are almost uncertain: a
continuing trans-disciplinary learning process, in which all involved

⁎
Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: f.poggi@fcsh.unl.pt (F. Poggi), am.firmino@fcsh.unl.pt (A. Firmino), miguelpamado@tecnico.ulisboa.pt (M. Amado).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104955
Received 25 April 2019; Received in revised form 20 July 2020; Accepted 26 July 2020
Available online 15 August 2020
0264-8377/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
F. Poggi, et al.
Fig. 1. a) Nº of articles/years for “GIS, RENEWABLE ENERGY”; b) Nº of articles/years for “GIS, ENERGY CONSUMPTION.”.
Fig. 2. Methodological flow diagram.
parties, steadily and jointly have to reflect an adaptation to ongoing
efforts and experiences (Droege, 2018:522). Dowling et al. (2018) ex-
tend these understandings and outline the complexities and obstacles
associated with energy transition governance and the new role of the
urban within this. Indeed, they advocate for the limited urban capacity
for direct government intervention in the energy system and suggest the
need to consider multilevel strategies, actor networks and the materi-
alities of the urban built environment. The insights from these studies
clearly show that the ability of governments to respond to shaping
urban energy transition is still at an early stage.
While the major areas of policy concerns about energy transition
seem to focus on cities and urban areas (Naumann and Rudolph, 2020),
it is essential to understand what are the implications of this transition
for rural places and regions. Indeed, similar questions arise on the role
of policymaking and planning in fostering energy transition for rural
areas as the availability of renewable energy resources and lands puts
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Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955
them at the centre of this discourse.
Bergmann et al. (2008) suggest that renewable energy should be
considered a land use, requiring a large amount of rural areas to capture
the energy in wind, water or solar radiation in sufficient quantities to be
commercially viable. Howard et al. (2009) also demonstrate that
changes in the energy system associated with the mix of renewable
energy sources have severe implications for land use, especially by
competing for agricultural land. Analogous suggestions on the direct
relationship between energy transition and land use have been made
promoting a geographical focus of low carbon transitions beyond the
city’s boundaries to include suburban, peripherical and rural areas
(Balta-Ozkan et al., 2015). As referred by de Santoli et al. (2019), the
ongoing energy transition processes need a rapprochement between the
places of energy production and consumption to create innovative and
integrated territorial models.
Nevertheless, rural areas remain dependent on external decisions
F. Poggi, et al. Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955

Table 1
Land Cover Classification (Eurostat, 2015).
Nº Sample Description
1 Artificial land - Areas
characterised by an artificial
and often impervious cover of
constructions and pavement;
2 Agricultural areas - Areas
where crops are planted and
cultivated;
3 Forest and semi-natural areas -
Areas covered by trees with a
canopy of at least 10 %;
approach to cope with the local conditions and prevent land-use con-
flicts.
While rural and urban areas, as places of energy consumption and
production, play a crucial role in the shift to a low carbon energy
system, there remains some ambiguity over the structural changes in
territories that this transition means.
Aiming to fill this gap, the present paper sets background and
context for understanding the spatial dimensions of the energy transi-
tion, exploring how urban and rural areas can be locally planned ac-
cording to a self-reliant energy system. The objective of this approach is
to disclose spatial understanding on the land use and energy transition
nexus, leading to the provision of intuitive scenarios to support public
decision-makers and planners in drawing their future strategies about
the municipal energy development.
The structure of the paper is comprised as follows: First, a literature
review provides a concise account and analysis of the current state of
the art on the spatial dimensions of the energy transition. Given the
critical role that GIS plays in this discourse, this section also identifies
relevant literature on how to identify spatial relationships among re-
newable energy, energy consumption and land-use patterns. In the next
part, a method for developing the Net-Zero Energy scenarios on GIS is
described, while its practical application is explained in the following
section (case study). Then, the results and their implications are dis-
cussed and compared with other studies. Finally, conclusions sum-
marise the actions taken and results, highlighting the contributions and
relevance in terms of policies and spatial planning.

2. Literature review

The need for an integrated adaptation of society to energy transition

4 Wetlands - areas that fall
between land and water;
5 Water areas - inland or coastal
areas without vegetation and
covered by water and flooded
surfaces, or likely to be so over
a large part of the year
associated with the traditional context of the asymmetric relationships
between the urban core and rural periphery (O’Sullivan et al., 2020).
For instance, onshore wind policy across the UK reveals a lack of de-
tailed attention to regulating future post-wind land-use and an overall
patchy problematisation by governments with regards to the tempor-
alities of energy infrastructure and their potential impacts in landscapes
and environment (Windemer, 2019). An analogous situation has oc-
curred in Italy, with the expansion of ground-mounted solar plants into
rural land that led the government to propose specific initiatives to
manage and plan their installation and to contain landscape and soil
degradation (Delfanti et al., 2016). Koelman et al. (2018) highlight that
energy transition asks for a more bottom-up integral decentralised
poses an urgent question: what are the strategic places for this transi-
tion? In light of this, the present section aims to investigate the different
spatial dimensions at which energy transition occurs, providing the
strategic components to deal with the development of scenarios ac-
cording to the structure, functioning and change of different geo-
graphical contexts.
In recent years, a growing literature on the uneven geographies of
energy has emerged, revealing spatial perspectives on the urban‐rural
linkages and its relationship with energy systems and their transfor-
mation (Becker and Naumann, 2017). Understandings on new energy
spaces have led to consider the aspects of territory, place, scale, and
network for developing local experiments toward the vision of 100 %
renewable electricity region (Adesanya et al., 2020), which are all
place-based (Gailing et al., 2019).
In this framework, Dahlmann et al. (2017) systematise the geo-
graphical components of sustainable energy transitions, arguing that
spatiality shapes energy systems and influences their capacity for
transformation. For these authors, scaling, location, territoriality, spa-
tial differentiation and embeddedness and landscape provide a valuable
conceptual lexicon for exploring the geographical implications and
emerging futures of the EU’s and member states’ energy policies.
Shifting the focus from the theoretical framework to the operative
spatial scale of the energy transition, Oudes and Stremke (2018) de-
velop a study of spatially explicit and evidence-based targets for sus-
tainable energy transition at the regional and local scale. The scenarios
and dynamic models developed by the authors reveal the direct re-
lationships between the local landscape characteristics, stakeholder
values and renewable energy potentials.
Weinand et al. (2019) provide a cluster composition to transfer
results from energy system analyses of individual municipalities to
other, similar municipalities. The identification of spatial socio-en-
ergetic data as input for municipal energy system analyses aims to
support local administration in determining the suitability for ex-
panding renewable energy sources.
In this perspective, the study of de Santoli et al. (2019) provides a
more integrated approach, assessing both the electricity consumptions

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F. Poggi, et al. Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955

Fig. 3. National contribution of renewable energy sources to the current Portuguese energy mix (Data source: DGEG, 2020).

Fig. 4. Case study location.

Fig. 5. Urban-rural land use in the Lisbon metropolitan and case study area, (Source data: DG Território, 2015).

and the production from renewable energy sources at a local scale. In a challenges. This assumption lead to deal more intuitively with two
sense, the local context, and sensitively, the municipal boundaries explicit spatial boundaries within the municipality: the urban areas,
emerge as the spatial scale, able to respond to energy transition marked by intense energy consumption patterns (Steemers, 2003) and

4
F. Poggi, et al.
Fig. 6. Population density levels in the Lisbon metropolitan and case study area, (Source data: INE, 2019).
Fig. 7. Contextualisation of the sample size (Source data: INE, 2019).
the rural areas, that may become potential green energy exporters
(Blaschke et al., 2013). However, does this spatial dichotomy go more
in-depth than functional and straightforward parallelism? Conducting
both policymaking and spatial planning at a local scale to address new
development models such as the Smart Energy Municipality (Ceglia
et al., 2020), the Eco-Municipality (Isaksson and Hagbert, 2020) or the
100 % Renewable Energy Municipality (Thellufsen et al., 2020) is a
logical path to find a solution to global energy issues and reach broader
goals at the regional and national level. Energy transition challenges
synergically tie urban and rural areas in the conceptualisation of a
novel energy self-reliant system (Poggi et al., 2017).
In this sense, the concept of energy balance leads to spatialise and
orient energy transition, according to the physical and natural condi-
tions of urban and rural areas and directly linking land-uses policy and
spatial planning concerns.
The chance for that is provided by the current experimentation
context in this fields and the recognition that the interactions and im-
plication of energy transition for urban and rural regions are still un-
certain, dynamic and complex, increasing pressure on local actors. In
carrying forward this discourse, the present study develops a Net-Zero
Energy scenario-based approach, associated with the concept of energy
balance as a way to guide and orient future policymaking and spatial
planning at the municipal scale.
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Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955
3. Energy Transition, land use and the role of GIS
To explore how territories may change in the future, scenario
making is a common tool to support policy and spatial planning.
Increasingly, the need for scenarios (foresight) to anticipate the effects
of policies and planning activities are linked to GIS analysis capabilities
(Holway, 2012). In this framework, energy transition, as a land-use
concern and GIS, as tools for analysing, managing, modelling and vi-
sualise spatial data to understand geographical contexts and dynamics,
have much to learn from each other.
Since GIS became more involved in urban planning in the late
1980s, its use has revolutionised the organisation of planning munici-
pality’s databases and applications at different scales (Batty, 2001).
That is how GIS-based approaches rose to prominence along with the
shift in spatial data modelling from relatively passive inquiry too much
more active intent (Falcidieno et al., 1992). Land-use suitability ana-
lysis is an example of a GIS application that has evolved along with
changing in planning, from scientific approaches through the political
process-oriented perspectives (Malczewski, 2004). The combination of
spatial data within thematic information layers can approximate plan-
ning intention and its implementation as well as evaluating the out-
comes (Hersperger et al., 2018).
In this research framework, the present section of the paper draws
on recent literature to investigate what is the actual contribution of GIS
F. Poggi, et al. Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955

Fig. 8. LUC 2015 level 1 map of Loures municipality, (Source data: DG Território, 2015).

Fig. 9. Electricity consumptions by end-use sectors in 2012 (Source data: INE, 2015).

applications in planning for Energy Transition and identify current gaps
and future perspectives on linking this process to local-scale planning.
The review has been based on the analysis of peer-reviewed articles
published between 2008 and 2019 and indexed by Scopus and ISI Web
of Knowledge databases. For this study, we begin from the year of the
financial crisis (2008) as it marked a milestone in the development of
society and it changed energy strategy priorities towards a global
economy away from a high emissions trajectory (Peters et al., 2011).
According to an inductive approach, the selection covered those
studies that deal with the main challenge of Energy Transition, con-
cerned with both ramping up renewable energy production and high
energy-efficiency (European Commission, 2018). The articles were
searched for in ScienceDirect by a query for the following two cate-
gories of specified keywords: a) “GIS; Renewable Energy”, b) “GIS,
Energy Consumption” (Fig. 1).
The graphs in Fig. 1 show upward trends in the development of GIS
approaches for renewable energy and energy consumption.
Many researchers have used GIS as a tool to identify spatial re-
lationships between energy consumption and cities, for example, as-
sessing urban forms (Ahn and Sohn, 2019) or morphological (Fichera
et al., 2016), functional (Yeo et al., 2013) or typological (Torabi
Moghadam et al., 2018) aspects of the built environment. From these
studies, it is clear that energy consumption is a concern that drives the
use of GIS to relevant results, assessing a common scale (building

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F. Poggi, et al. Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955

Fig. 10. a) Annual domestic electricity consumption per capita, at the statistical subsection level (kWh/inhab), (Source data: INE, 2015); b) LUC 2015 level 2: spatial
distribution of urban and economic activities, (Source data: DG Território, 2015).

Fig. 11. Electricity generated by renewables energy in Loures, (Source data: DGEG, 2015).

Table 2
Characterisation of the existing renewable energy power plants in Loures.
Name Technology Type Installed Power (MW) Starting year Area (ha)

Galelas Photovoltaic Ground-mounted solar power plant 2 2013 549

Malhapão Photovoltaic Ground-mounted solar power plant 2 2013 14
MARL Hill Photovoltaic Ground-mounted solar power plant 6 2014 10
MARL Rooftop Photovoltaic Rooftop photovoltaic plant 6 2009 133

Name Technology Type Installed Power (MW) Starting year Nº of wind turbines

Alrota Wind – 5 2008 2

Bolores Wind – 5,2 2003 4
Fanhões Wind – 18 2005 9
Picotinhos Wind – 2 2006 1
Sardinha Wind – 26 2008 13

blocks, neighbourhood or district levels) to support the integration of
energy efficiency strategies and measures in policymaking and urban
planning processes (Resch et al., 2014).
Concerning the publications on the use of GIS in assessing the po-
tential of renewable energy in cities, the most deal with the solar po-
tential in the built environment to promote distributed photovoltaic
(PV) energy generation. The analysis of the solar potential on building
rooftops using LiDAR data can be found in the works of Brito et al.
(2012), which estimates the PV potential of a Lisbon suburb and Bremer
et al. (2016) that present the results obtained on the city model of In-
nsbruck, Austria, showing the differences between the 2.5D and 3D
solar analysis. However, it is to refer that such GIS approaches are
limited to solar energy resource, and they do not provide a direct
linkage with energy consumption analysis. More recently, a growing
interest in GIS application for describing the potential of single or
multiple renewable energy resources has emerged, focusing

7
F. Poggi, et al.
Fig. 12. Map of the existing renewable power plants and medium-voltage networks, (Source data: DG Território, 2015).
respectively on the three main levels: the nation, region and the mu-
nicipality.
At the national level, the detail is obviously more limited, as shown
for example, in the works of Zyadin et al. (2018) that estimate biomass
resource in the southern and central Poland and Alami Merrouni et al.
(2018) that assess the capacity of the Eastern region of Morocco to host
large photovoltaic (PV) farms. Scaramuzzino et al. (2019) open up to a
more comprehensive analysis of the potential of biomass, solar and
wind energy in the EU28 area and Switzerland.
Concerning the region level, it is to mention the work of Sliz-
Szkliniarz (2013) as it shows an increasing detail in the spatial analysis,
including Corine Land Cover data to explore the potential of renewable
energy-mix in Kujawsko–Pomorskie Voivodeship, Germany.
Nevertheless, it is at the municipal level that it is possible to find
studies that articulate both renewable energy production and energy
consumption. De Santoli et al. (2019) discuss the incidence of the po-
pulation density and the high density of electricity consumption in the
city of Rome. They relate it to the whole potential of hydroelectric
production and the little margins of further exploitation for the wind
resource and thermoelectric production from bioenergy, highlighting
the potential of the photovoltaic resource as an opportunity to cover
electricity consumptions.
Each of the referred studies provides a relevant contribution to the
understanding of the main drivers and spatial scales in which energy
transition takes place, but, they also demonstrate a disaggregated
nature of current GIS approaches. Indeed, the choice of a single domain
(energy production or consumption) and spatial scales, which lack
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Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955
detailed information for effective planning, necessarily limits the power
of GIS approaches. Integrated application of GIS in the field of the
energy transition is thus, an open question.
To fulfil this gap, energy transition scenario making, supported by
GIS, has to homogenise asymmetries in spatial scales, addressing poli-
tical and planning challenges associated with both the integration of
renewable energy production in rural areas and the reduction of energy
consumption in urban areas.
4. Material and method
Given the concept of energy balance, the premise of this study lies in
understanding the municipality as a self-reliant system able to antici-
pate and adapt to future transformation and changes associated with
energy transition.
Rural and urban areas constitute the structural components of the
system, acting and interacting in a variety of incremental and adaptive
scenarios.
The overall energy self-reliance of the municipal energy system
depends on these two spatial boundaries. Together they lead to an
energy balance scenario that can be phased and managed across space
and time.
The research methodology is composed of the following seven
stages (Fig. 2):
The first stage of the process involves the development of the
Municipal Land Use and Cover map, using the LUC 2015 datasets at
level 1 (DG Território, 2015). The LUC map provides the macroscale
F. Poggi, et al. Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955

Fig. 13. Wind energy potential (INETI, 2015) and examples of existing wind farms in Loures (Images source: Firmino, 2015).

Fig. 14. Solar energy potential and existing ground-mounted solar power plants in Loures, (Images source: Firmino, 2015).

framework to create spatial correlations between energy consumption
patterns, associated with artificial areas and the potential of renewable
energy sources, located in agricultural, forest and semi-natural areas.
Here, the spatial distribution of land-use patterns and the respective
percentual quantification are classified according to the following five
main categories applied in all EU countries (Table 1).
Stages 2 involves the collection of statistical data on electricity
consumption by end-use sector, from the National Statistics Institute
(INE) and renewable energy production trends, from the Directorate-
General for Energy and Geology (DGEG).
In stage 3, descriptive models, based on spatial correlations
between electricity consumption and the distribution of residential and
economic activities are developed, looking for a statistical-spatial ap-
proximation of the reality.
Stages 4 and 5 provide the statistical quantification of the current
renewable supply generated in the municipality, and the spatial con-
figuration of the renewable energy power plants and medium voltage
networks.
Stage 6 develops the estimation of renewable energy sources po-
tential that is still to be explored.
Finally, Stage 7 uses the output of the previous steps to create the
Net-Zero scenario that reflects the spatial configuration and

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F. Poggi, et al. Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955

Fig. 15. Identification of suitable areas for roof-mounted PV systems in the industrial areas across the municipality (Source Images: Google Earth, 2017).

Fig. 16. Renewable energy power plants and transmission grid on LUC 2015 level 1 and average annual household consumption of electric energy.

quantitative description of the balance between energy consumption
and production at the municipal scale.
The GIS workflow allows overlapping energy-related data with
vectorial layers to construct the descriptive, prescriptive and inductive
models used to build the Net-Zero scenario and explore the interrelated
spatial nature of these aspects within policies and planning. Shaping
energy transition through maps means to spatialise renewable energy
sources and energy consumption to be legible into the logic of a system
- the Municipality and its structural components: the urban and rural
areas. Here, the methodological challenge was to create spatial asso-
ciations between energy data (quantitative) and land use patterns,
morphologies and networks (qualitative) that are the common digital
cartography layers. The key insight for the spatialisation of energy data
was the understanding of rural and urban land-uses as the driver of
renewable energy production and consumption, respectively.
The methodology was designed to be replicable at other different
spatial scales (e.g. Region, Province or Metropolitan Areas) and to be
used in all the countries that have land-use and cover classification.

10
F. Poggi, et al.
Fig. 17. Net Zero-Energy Municipality: schematic model.
5. Case study
With a share of electricity generated from renewable of 52.2 %
(Eurostat, 2018), Portugal is an object lesson in fostering energy tran-
sition challenge. Over the last decade, the national contribution of re-
newable energy for the current energy mix has had an accelerated
growth, showing significant progress from the different sources when
compared with the production from fossil fuels (Fig. 3).
A direct comparison between the evolution of the different sources
of renewable energy and the production from fossil fuels (red curve),
shows how the energy equation associated with the current trends can
determine attractive prospects toward energy transition at the national
level. Combining a unique mix of endogenous energy resources, dif-
ferent population densities along the urban-rural gradients and a di-
versity of landscapes, Portugal can be considered a place of experi-
mentation, opening up new paths to accelerate the energy transition.
The Portuguese planning system lies on three levels of government
and responsibilities: the national and regional levels and 308 munici-
palities. The national and regional levels provide the legal and strategic
framework that regulates the local level. Municipalities thus exercise
their responsibility for land use primarily through the preparation of
local land-use plans. Here, the Municipal Director Plan is the more ef-
fective instrument to guide local spatial development. In this frame-
work, the concept of energy balance applied at the municipal level
emerges as an opportunity to explore and stimulate bottom-up changes
associated with local policy formulation and smaller-scale intervention.
The municipality is the more adequate spatial units of analysis for the
application of the methodology and the discussion of how the under-
standing of renewable energy sources and energy consumption patterns
can be integrated into local policymaking and planning. For the present
purposes, the choice of the municipality of Loures as a case study has
followed four selection criteria. First, to be located in one of the two
main metropolitan areas in the Portuguese mainland context, namely in
the Lisbon area (Fig. 4). This criterion is directly related to analysing a
dynamic backdrop of economic activities and reasonably high energy
consumption patterns.
Second, to present a heterogeneous mix between urban-rural land
use (Fig. 5) and high-low population density levels (Fig. 6) which are
essential when identifying strategies to cope with both renewable en-
ergy resources and energy efficiency.
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Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955
Third, to have a mean size when compared with the other munici-
palities in the Lisbon metropolitan area, which lead to being in the
middle of the spatial scale of representativeness (Fig. 7).
Fourth, to have some renewable energy power plant already in-
stalled in the municipal territory, as explained with more detail in the
following section.
Loures municipality covers an area of 16,724 km2 and is integrated
into the region of Lisboa e Vale do Tejo – NUTII of Greater Lisbon.
According to the National Statistics Institute (INE), the municipality
currently has a population near to 211 359 inhabitants (2018), meaning
an average population density of 1 246 habitants per km2 (INE, 2019).
Land cover data, based upon the LUC 2015 Level I, provide a de-
tailed quantitative and qualitative information about the municipal
territorial model which is characterised by a relative predominance of
forest-semi-natural areas and agricultural areas with 43 % and 31 %,
respectively. Where urbanisation intensifies, artificial areas account for
25 % and a small amount of water bodies and wetlands (Fig. 8).
Three relevant spatial patterns emerge, according to the following:
1 In the North zone, forest and agricultural areas, combining with the
low population density of the rural hinterland surrounding the peri-
urban areas;
2 In the Centre zone, there are some urban-rural agglomerations
scattered among agricultural areas while large and homogenous
agriculture and semi-natural areas divide the territory from the
denser urban area;
3 In the South zone, the inner urban area with higher density built
development and residential, industrial and commercial activities
that evolved incrementally across the time, influenced by reciprocal
interactions between the attractive force of Lisbon Metropolitan
Area and the economic activities located in the riverside area (Anico
and Peralta, 2008).
After understanding the spatial model of the municipality, the ap-
plication of the proposed Net-Zero scenario-based approach follows
three main steps:
1 Mapping energy consumption, adopting land-uses and urban
fabric as spatial parameters to evaluate the performance of the re-
sidential sector and economic activities;
F. Poggi, et al.
Fig. 18. Energy balanced combinations based on electricity consumption patterns, by type (GWh) (Source:).
2 Analysis of the renewable energy generation power plants and
grid networks, currently implemented within the municipal
boundaries, in this case, wind and solar power plants;
3 Estimation of the renewable energy potential, that may further
be promoted in the municipality’s future energy mix, according to
the local natural conditions and land use framework.
Statistical data on electricity consumption by end-use sectors are the
first relevant indicator of the form and intensity of human/land uses
and economic activities.
In Loures, the analysis of this indicator reveals that the industry is
the sector that most affects local energy consumption (43 %), followed
by service and retail activities (27 %) and the residential sector (24 %).
In contrast, the residual 6% is associated with agriculture and the
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Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955
lightening system of roads and public buildings (Fig. 9).
However, understanding the energy consumption patterns of the
various sectors in terms of statistics is not accurate if the objective is in
promoting energy efficiency and CO2 emissions reduction in a spatial
planning perspective. This fact is considered by the present study,
emphasising a more detailed analysis of the direct interaction between
electricity consumption and land use (Fig. 10).
The map in Fig. 10 a) provides the incidence and spatial distribution
of annual domestic electricity consumption across the whole munici-
pality. This descriptive model is a statistical-spatial approximation of
the reality that results by multiplying the number of inhabitants at the
subsection level, by the annual electricity consumption per capita
which in Loures is 1 156 kW h/inhab (INE, 2015).
On the other hand, the map in Fig. 10 b) provides the spatial
F. Poggi, et al.
configuration of the economic activities and urban fabric that permits
to identify how the fragmented mix of land-uses concentrates the high
energy consumption patterns by interconnecting and expanding re-
sidential, industrial and commercial sectors and the related infra-
structures.
Nevertheless, the relevance of the two descriptive models lies in a
spatialisation of energy consumption within the challenge to bring
about an energy balance with the promotion of local renewable energy
production. In this context, Fig. 11 shows how the proportion of elec-
tricity generated by renewables in Loures is growing, associated with a
mix of technologies that includes the wind power, followed by large
scale photovoltaic power and emerging micro/mini photovoltaic gen-
eration.
Here, the main contribution in terms of local renewable energy
production comes from three ground-mounted solar power plant
(Galelas, Malhapão and the MARL Hill), one rooftop photovoltaic plant
(MARL Rooftop) and five wind farms of a varying number of turbines
(Table 2). The two solar power plant – Marl Hill and MARL Rooftop, are
part of the same project comprising a set of photovoltaic panels in-
stalled on the eleven building rooftops of the Lisbon Region Supply
Market and the slopes of the surrounding hills.
In terms of spatial configuration, all the existing power plants are
currently located in rural areas and are connected to the medium-vol-
tage network, according to a decentralised model (Fig. 12).
Here it is important to note that the location of renewable energy
power plants in rural areas depends on specific physical conditions. In
this sense, Fig. 13 shows how the installation of wind farms is asso-
ciated with the topography, elevation and rugosity of the terrain that
influences wind speeds. The high incidence of the wind speeds (yellow
zone) over half of the municipal territory can result in an opportunity to
promote the expansion of the existing wind farms or the installation of
new ones in the future.
Regarding solar energy, it is relevant to note that the municipality
benefits from high levels of global irradiation throughout all its terri-
tory (Fig. 14).
Nevertheless, the installation of the two ground-mounted solar
power plants had profound implications for the loss of cultivable areas
and the visual amenity of landscapes. This lesson leads to new under-
standings on the value of expanding roof-mounted PV systems for solar
power generation, which can include residences as well as public fa-
cilities and commercial structures. In the case of Loures, for examples, it
is possible to identify a significant amount of suitable areas for roof-
mounted PV systems in the industrial areas across the municipality
(Fig. 15). This perspective suggests the opportunities for more adaptive
and flexibles policies to encourage the use of photovoltaics in buildings
as, for example, the US legislation which promotes community shared
solar models associated with customer-owned or rental approaches
(Michaud, 2020).
6. Results and discussion
Shaping energy transition through maps that overlay data on re-
newable energy sources, energy consumption, and the electricity net-
works in a integrate spatial planning perspective is one of the most
relevant insights of the proposed approach. In that regard, Fig. 16
provides an inductive model that aggregates existing renewable energy
power plants, networks, electricity consumption areas and rural areas,
on LUC 2015 level 1. This model is necessarily a simplification of rea-
lity. However, it summarises some key spatial and functional issues,
which concern energy production-demand interactions and feedback,
land use hierarchies, spatial proximity and morphological patterns:
from the dispersed rural settlements and suburban sprawl to the com-
pact linear urban areas.
The model above is ultimately directed to support local authorities
in more comprehensive decision-making processes and actions. In this
framework, the implementation of new wind farms and photovoltaic
13
Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955
installation in buildings, secured by the existing network, comes as a
relevant challenge to increase renewable energy production at the
municipal scale. Nevertheless, tasks facing future expansions of re-
newable energy power plants have to be directly related to: 1. how to
preserve the landscape, social and ecological values and, simulta-
neously; 2. how to manage energy flows within a self-reliant municipal
system. The first concerns deal with the definition of spatial strategies
that ensure a sustainable energy planning for rural areas, where eco-
logical sensitivity, valuable biotopes, wetlands, forestland and cultural
components are clearly delimited and protected. As such, it is important
to refer that the scenarios proposed in this research have to be com-
plemented by more detailed studies able to assess the sustainability of
the siting areas without unexpected consequences. Wind farms and
solar power installations, for example, calls for approaches that ar-
ticulate complex legislation criteria (Kokologos et al., 2014) and socio-
environmental scenarios (Giamalaki and Tsoutsos, 2019), elaborated at
the fine-scale resolution of the project itself. The second concern leads
to an inductive model in which the municipality is intended as an en-
ergetically balanced system. That is, the Net Zero-Energy Municipality
Scenario which aims to establish a balance between energy consump-
tion in urban areas (negative cells) and renewable energy production in
rural areas (positive cells) (Fig. 17).
Such a classification is related to the development of transition
models to articulate spatial patterns and energy interactions. Just as
urban areas are the primary energy consumers, so they affect the in-
crease for renewable energy production in rural areas. These interac-
tions are spatially separate but energetically connected and they vary
within and across different territories and in response to the potential of
biomass, wind, solar, and mini-hydro sources.
Taking into account that in Loures, the total electric energy con-
sumption in 2014 was 833 GW h and total electric energy produced
from renewable sources was 517 GW h, how to promote the concept of
energy balance? How could this theoretical model be built, in a prac-
tical way?
At present, supply from existing renewable energy power plants
cannot completely satisfy the high levels of energy consumption.
Nevertheless, it is possible to identify some electricity consumption
patterns, classified by type, that lead to potential energy balanced
combinations (Fig. 18).
Fig. 18 permits to identify the sectors where increasing energy ef-
ficiency is a core action. In this regard, the sprawling nature of urban
and suburban areas, as well as the localisation of the economic activ-
ities, reflects how local planning should focus on more compact and,
thus, more energy-efficient urban agglomerations and economic hubs.
7. Conclusions
In recent years, it has become apparent that both policymaking and
planning need to promote energy transition, linking its spatial dimen-
sions to the sustainable development of territories. Nevertheless, the
literature review reveals a disaggregated nature of current energy
transition approaches that are found to be both theoretical and prac-
tical. This framework provides the basis to investigate to which extent
energy transition can be integrated into policies and local planning, by
tackling a Net-Zero energy scenario-based approach at the municipal
scale.
In this vein, the use of a case study has permitted to qualify and
quantify the spatial relationships associated with the balance between
the potential of renewable energy production in rural areas and the
reduction of energy consumption in urban areas, across a municipality.
The results are twofold. On the one hand, planning for renewable en-
ergy involves a multitude of environmental, social, political and eco-
nomic issues that need to be considered together. Here, the under-
standing of the implications and opportunities in rural areas, which in
Loures cover 73 % of the municipal territory, is critical to inform po-
liticians and planners on the current status and future scenarios for a
F. Poggi, et al.
sustainable transition of the local energy system. On the other hand, the
most significant energy consumption occurs in urbanised areas, corre-
sponding to only about 27 % of the municipal territory. Here, the
spatialisation of the energy consumption patterns that at present are
neither readily evaluated nor much less resolved can orient the devel-
opment of both more effective and responsive strategies to promote
energy efficiency in the rehabilitation of built environment, as well as,
energy-saving programs for social housing and public facilities, on the
short term.
Such a framework sets the background and context for under-
standing the existing and potential energy balance within a land-use
perspective, disclosing the opportunities for a strategic alignment at a
local level between urban and rural energy policies. In this vein, the
concept of Net-Zero Energy Municipality; that is, a delimited geo-
graphical system, energetically balanced, takes a further step towards
the elaboration of policies packages and planning intervention, at the
local level. Indeed, this concept represents a significant challenge to
contemporary energy policymaking as it could be a way to systemically
understand the energy transition dimensions associated with both
urban and rural land-uses, orienting policies and planning according to
the following three conditions:
1 The challenges associated with energy transition revolve around
smaller-scale approaches; that is, there is a need for understanding
functional/spatial boundaries that lead to more place-based policies;
2 The strategic vision for the municipal energy development has to be
narrowly defined and spatially systematised; that is, rural areas have
to be planned as green energy exporters to feed energy consumption
of urban areas, promoting the concept of the self-reliant system;
3 The development of a Net-Zero scenario leads to select the most
equilibrated pathway; that is, each intervention moves on to a
system-oriented model that has been previously calibrated to match
energy production and consumption within each municipality.
Progress depends on operationalising the municipality as a self-re-
liant energy system, and local authorities have a pivotal role to play.
Still, this aspect also leads to highlight some of the limitations asso-
ciated with the proposed approach. Politics and planners still need to
understand that the energy transition paradigm has to shift away from
global to a local perspective, addressing the cumulative challenges and
impacts in both urban and rural areas. This means rethinking the role of
rural areas, which are usually “invisible” in local debates on energy
development, as a new place for expanding renewable energy produc-
tion and attracting private economic investments through the transi-
tion. Turning this challenge around also places the model of circular
economy in a core focus to tie urban and rural energy metabolism,
according to lifecycles associated with sustainable green energy gen-
eration from natural resources and intelligent use of energy and pro-
motion of energy efficiency. Here, the widespread faith in the capacity
of technology to make a smarter world in the future has thus to be
prepared with rigour and coherence, or the subsequent result will lead
energy transition to become an energy odyssey for environment, eco-
systems and landscapes.
In carrying forward this discourse, policymaking and planning
processes have to work on adapting territories to the energy transition,
adopting a more place-based and boundary-oriented view to stimu-
lating this change at the local level. In this sense, the elaboration of Net-
Zero scenarios can help to explore and predict spatial nature and
structural changes in both urban and rural areas, supporting policy-
makers and planners to face on the complex tasks associated with
shaping sustainable energy transition at the municipal scale.
8. AUTHORSHIP STATEMENT
Conception and design of the research: F. Poggi, A. Firmino,
M.Amado
14
Land Use Policy 99 (2020) 104955
Acquisition of data: F. Poggi, A. Firmino;
Analysis and/or interpretation of data: F. Poggi;
Drafting the manuscript: F. Poggi:
Revising the manuscript critically for important intellectual content:
A. Firmino, M.Amado
Approval of the version of the manuscript to be published: F. Poggi,
A. Firmino, M.Amado
Acknowledgements
The first author thanks the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e
Tecnologia (FCT) for the financial support through the PhD Fellowship
SFRH/BD/94702/2013. The authors would also like to thank EDP
Distribution for providing the Medium Voltage dataset used in this
study.
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