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4. A training agency awards a certificate to each student who passes a test while completing

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Students failing the test will attempt the test again up to 3 more times, and, if they pass

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the test, will be awarded a certificate.
The probability of passing the test at the first attempt is 0.7, but the probability of passing
reduces by 0.2 at each attempt.

(a) Complete the tree diagram below to show this information.

0.7 Pass

0.5 Pass

Fail Pass
.............
0.3

.............
Fail ............. Pass

.............
Fail

.............
Fail

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(2)

A student who completed the course is selected at random.

(b) Find the probability that the student was awarded a certificate.
(2)

(c) Given that the student was awarded a certificate, find the probability that the student
passed on the first or second attempt.
(3)
The training agency decides to alter the test taken by the students while completing the
course, but will not allow more than 2 attempts. The agency requires the probability of
passing the test at the first attempt to be p, and the probability of passing the test at the
second attempt to be ( p – 0.2). The percentage of students who complete the course and
are awarded a certificate is to be 95%

(d) Show that p satisfies the equation

p 2 – 2.2p + 1.15 = 0
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(3)
(e) Hence find the value of p, giving your answer to 3 decimal places.
(3)
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6. Three events A, B and C are such that

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P(A) = P(C) = P(A ‰ B) =

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Given that A and C are mutually exclusive find

(a) P(A ‰ C )
(1)

Given that A and B are independent

3
(b) show that P(B) =
8 (4)

(c) Find P(A | B)

(1)

Given that P(Cƍ ˆ Bƍ  

(d) draw a Venn diagram to represent the events A, B and C

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(5)
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4. The partially completed tree diagram, where p and q are probabilities, gives information

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...............
W

R
p
0.4
B

W
q
............... R 0.15
B

...............
C

R represents the event that it is raining

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W represents the event that Andrew walks to work
B represents the event that Andrew takes the bus to work
C represents the event that Andrew cycles to work

Given that P(B) = 0.26

(a) find the value of p

(3)

Given also that P(R µW ) = 0.175

(b) find the value of q

(4)

(c) Find the probability that Andrew cycles to work.

(2)
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Given that Andrew did not cycle to work on Friday,

(d) find the probability that it was raining on Friday.

(3)
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3. A certain disease occurs in a population in 2 mutually exclusive types.

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It is difficult to diagnose people with type A of the disease and there is an unknown

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proportion p of the population with type A.

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It is easier to diagnose people with type B of the disease and it is known that 2% of the
population have type B.

A test has been developed to help diagnose whether or not a person has the disease. The
event T represents a positive result on the test. After a large-scale trial of the test, the
following information was obtained.

For a person with type B of the disease the probability of a positive test result is 0.96
For a person who does not have the disease the probability of a positive test result is 0.05
For a person with type A of the disease the probability of a positive test result is q

(a) Complete the tree diagram.

q
T
Type A

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T
p ...............

...............
T
...............
Type B
T
...............

............... ...............
T
No disease
T
...............

(2)

The probability of a randomly selected person having a positive test result is 0.169
For a person with a positive test result, the probability that they do not have the
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41
disease is
169

(b) Find the value of p and the value of q.

(7)

A doctor is about to see a person who she knows does not have type B of the disease but
does have a positive test result.

(c) (i) Find the probability that this person has type A of the disease.
(3)

(ii) State, giving a reason, whether or not the doctor will find the test useful.
(1)

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2. In a school canteen, students can choose from a main course of meat (M ), fish (F ) or

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vegetarian (V ). They can then choose a drink of either water (W ) or juice (J ).

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The partially completed tree diagram, where p and q are probabilities, shows the
probabilities of these choices for a randomly selected student.

Main course Drink

p
Water
Meat
Juice
0.40 ...............

q Water
0.35
Fish
Juice
...............

............... 0.40 Water

Vegetarian
Juice
...............

(a) Complete the tree diagram, giving your answers in terms of p and q where appropriate.
(2)

(b) Find an expression, in terms of p and q, for the probability that a randomly selected
student chooses water to drink.
(1)

The events “choosing a vegetarian main course” and “choosing water to drink” are
independent.

(c) Find a linear equation in terms of p and q.

(2)

A student who has chosen juice to drink is selected at random. The probability that they
7
chose fish for their main course is
30

(d) Find the value of p and the value of q.

(5)

The canteen manager claims that students who choose water to drink are most likely to
choose a fish main course.

(e) State, showing your working clearly, whether or not the manager’s claim is correct.
(3)

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6. Following some school examinations, Chetna is studying the results of the 16 students

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in her class. The mark for paper 1, x, and the mark for paper 2, y, for each student are

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summarised in the following statistics.

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x = 35.75 y = 25.75 σx = 7.79 σy = 11.91 ∑ xy = 15 837
(a) Comment on the differences between the marks of the students on paper 1 and paper 2
(2)

Chetna decides to examine these data in more detail and plots the marks for each of the
16 students on the scatter diagram opposite.

(b) (i) Explain why the circled point (38, 0) is possibly an outlier.

(ii) Suggest a possible reason for this result.

(2)

Chetna decides to omit the data point (38, 0) and examine the other 15 students’ marks.

(c) Find the value of x and the value of y for these 15 students.

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(3)

For these 15 students

(d) (i) explain why ∑ xy is still 15 837

(ii) show that Sxy = 1169.8

(3)

For these 15 students, Chetna calculates Sxx = 965.6 and Syy = 1561.7 correct to
1 decimal place.

(e) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient for these 15 students.
(2)

(f) Calculate the equation of the line of regression of y on x for these 15 students, giving
your answer in the form y = a + bx
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(4)

The product moment correlation coefficient between x and y for all 16 students is 0.746

(g) Explain how your calculation in part (e) supports Chetna’s decision to omit the point
(38, 0) before calculating the equation of the linear regression line.
(1)

(h) Estimate the mark in the second paper for a student who scored 38 marks in the
first paper.
(1)

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50

40

30

20

10
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0
0 10 20 30 40 50 x
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5. A large company rents shops in different parts of the country. A random sample of

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10 shops was taken and the floor area, x in 10 m2, and the annual rent, y in thousands of

m
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dollars, were recorded.
The data are summarised by the following statistics

∑ x = 900 ∑ x2 = 84 818 ∑ y = 183 ∑ y2 = 3434

and the regression line of y on x has equation y = 6.066 + 0.136x

(a) Use the regression line to estimate the annual rent in dollars for a shop with a floor
area of 800 m2
(2)

(b) Find Syy and Sxx

(3)

(c) Find the product moment correlation coefficient between y and x.

(4)

An 11th shop is added to the sample. The floor area is 900 m2 and the annual rent is
15 000 dollars.

(d) Use the formula Sxy = ∑ (x − x)( y − y) to show that the value of Sxy for the 11 shops
will be the same as it was for the original 10 shops.
(2)

(e) Find the new equation of the regression line of y on x for the 11 shops.
(3)

The company is considering renting a larger shop with area of 3000 m2

(f) Comment on the suitability of using the new regression line to estimate the annual
rent. Give a reason for your answer.
(1)
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6. A biased coin has probability 0.4 of showing a head. In an experiment, the coin is spun

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until a head appears. If a head has not appeared after 4 spins, the coin is not spun again.

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The random variable X represents the number of times the coin is spun.

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For example, X = 3 if the first two spins do not show a head but the third spin does show a
head. The coin would not then be spun a fourth time since the coin has already shown
a head.

(a) Show that P(X = 3) = 0.144

(1)

The table gives some values for the probability distribution of X

x 1 2 3 4

P(X = x) 0.24 0.144

(b) (i) Write down the value of P(X = 1)

(ii) Find P(X = 4)

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(3)
(c) Find E(X )
(2)

(d) Find Var(X )

(3)

The random variable H represents the number of heads obtained when the coin is spun in
the experiment.

(e) Explain why H can only take the values 0 and 1 and find the probability distribution
of H.
(2)

(f) Write down the value of

(i) P({X = 3} ∩ {H = 0})
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(ii) P({X = 4} ∩ {H = 0})

(2)
The random variable S = X + H

(g) Find the probability distribution of S

(4)
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5. The discrete random variable X is defined by the cumulative distribution function

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x 1 2 3 4 5

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3k 15k 35k
F(x) 4k 12k
2 2 2

where k is a constant.

(a) Find the probability distribution of X.

(3)

(b) Find P(1.5  X - 3.5)

(2)

The random variable Y 12  7X

(c) Calculate Var (Y)

(6)

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(d) Calculate P(4X - _Y_)
(3)
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5. Some children are playing a game involving throwing a ball into a bucket. Each child has

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3 throws and the number of times the ball lands in the bucket, x, is recorded. Their results

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are given in the table below.

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x 0 1 2 3
Frequency 16 36 24 4

(a) Find x
(1)

Sandra decides to model the game by assuming that on each throw, the probability of the
ball landing in the bucket is 0.4 for every child on every throw and that the throws are all
independent. The random variable S represents the number of times the ball lands in the
bucket for a randomly selected child.

(b) Find P(S = 2)

(2)

(c) Complete the table below to show the probability distribution for S.

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s 0 1 2 3
P(S = s) 0.432 0.064
(1)

Ting believes that the probability of the ball landing in the bucket is not the same for each
throw. He suggests that the probability will increase with each throw and uses the model

pi = 0.15i + 0.10
where i = 1, 2, 3 and pi is the probability that the ith throw of the ball, by any particular
child, will land in the bucket.
The random variable T represents the number of times the ball lands in the bucket for a
randomly selected child using Ting’s model.

(d) Show that

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(ii) P(T = 1) = 0.45
(5)

(e) Complete the table below to show the probability distribution for T, stating the exact
probabilities in each case.

t 0 1 2 3
P(T = t) 0.45 0.055
(3)

(f) State, giving your reasons, whether Sandra’s model or Ting’s model is the more
appropriate for modelling this game.
(3)

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7. The number of cakes, X, bought by customers at a particular shop has probability

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x 1 2 3 4 5 6 6

P(X = x) 0.35 a a 0.15 b b 0

where a and b are constants.

Given that E(X ) = 2.5

(a) (i) show that a = 0.2

(ii) find the value of b

(5)

(b) Calculate Var(4X + 3)

(4)

The cost to produce each cake is 20 cents and the shopkeeper sells each cake for 80 cents.

(c) Find the expected profit made by the shopkeeper for a randomly selected customer
buying cakes.
(2)

The shopkeeper decides to run a promotion where she gives 1 free cake to all customers
who buy 4 or more cakes. During the promotion the number of cakes, Y, taken away by
a customer buying cakes has the following probability distribution

y 1 2 3 4 5 6

3 4 3 22 8
P(Y = y) 0
40 40 40 40 40

(d) Find the expected profit made by the shopkeeper for a randomly selected customer
buying cakes during the promotion.
(4)
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6. The random variable A represents the score when a spinner is spun. The probability

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a 1 4 5 7
P(A = a) 0.40 0.20 0.25 0.15

(a) Show that E(A) = 3.5

(2)

(b) Find Var (A)

(3)

The random variable B represents the score on a 4-sided die. The probability distribution
for B is given in the following table where k is a positive integer.

b 1 3 4 k
P(B = b) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

(c) Write down the name of the probability distribution of B.

(1)

(d) Given that E(B) = E(A) state, giving a reason, the value of k.
(1)

The random variable X ~ N( μ, σ 2)

Sam and Tim are playing a game with the spinner and the die.

They each spin the spinner once to obtain their value of A and each roll the die once to
obtain their value of B.
Their value of A is taken as their value of μ and their value of B is taken as their value of σ.
The person with the larger value of P(X > 3.5) is the winner.

(e) Given that Sam obtained values of a = 4 and b = 3 and Tim obtained b = 4
find, giving a reason, the probability that Tim wins.
(2)

(f) Find the largest value of P(X > 3.5) achievable in this game.
(4)

(g) Find the probability of achieving this value.

(2)

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Question 6 continued

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 JUNE 2016 (IAL)

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7. A machine fills bottles with water. The volume of water delivered by the machine to a

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bottle is X ml where X ~ N( ȝ, ı2)

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One of these bottles of water is selected at random.

Given that ȝ = 503 and ı 1.6

(a) find

(i) P(X  505)

(ii) P(501 X  505)
(5)

(b) Find w such that P(1006 – w  X  w) = 0.9426

(3)

Following adjustments to the machine, the volume of water delivered by the machine to a
bottle is such that ȝ = 503 and ı T

Given that P(X  r) = 0.01 and P(X  r + 6) = 0.05

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(c) find the value of r and the value of T
(7)
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 October 2018 (IAL)

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6. A machine makes bolts such that the length, L cm, of a bolt has distribution

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L a N (4.1, 0.1252)

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A bolt is selected at random.

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(a) Find the probability that the length of this bolt is more than 4.3 cm.
(3)

(b) Show that P(3.9  L  4.3) is 0.890 correct to 3 decimal places.

(1)

The machine makes 500 bolts.

The cost to make each bolt is 5 pence.
Only bolts with length between 3.9 cm and 4.3 cm can be used.
These are sold for 9 pence each.
All the bolts that cannot be used are recycled with a scrap value of 1 pence each.

(c) Calculate an estimate for the profit made on these 500 bolts.
(4)

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Following adjustments to the machine, the length of a bolt, B cm, made by the machine is
such that B a N(ȝ, ı࣠2)

Given that P(B  4.198) 0.025 and P(B  4.065) 0.242

(d) find the value of ȝ and the value of ı

(6)

(e) State, giving a reason, whether the adjustments to the machine will result in a decrease
or an increase in the profit made on 500 bolts.
(2)
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 January 2020 (IAL)

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5. The random variable X has a normal distribution with mean 10 and standard deviation 6

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(a) Find P(X  7)

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P(10 – k  X  10 + k) = 0.60
(3)

A single observation x, of X, is to be taken.

A rectangle is drawn on a centimetre grid with vertices having coordinates (0, 0), (x, 0),
(x, x – 3) and (0, x – 3)

(c) Find the probability that the area of this rectangle is more than 40 cm2
(8)
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