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A Conversation With Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis - 英语 (自动生成)
A Conversation With Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis - 英语 (自动生成)
A Conversation With Google DeepMind's Demis Hassabis - 英语 (自动生成)
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welcome everyone um I am really excited to be doing this with sir Demis uh who
as you may know recently got his his Knighthood have you gone to be dobbed
yet by the by the king okay sometime sum that's still to come um well there is so
much that I want to talk about and it's really great that doing this here in
London where you grew up where you found a deep mind and where you are now CEO of
Google deep mind running Google's aort around the world so maybe let's start
with that so obviously it must be quite a weird experience for you having start
a deep mind in 2010 when to put it mildly AI was not obvious you know it
was not there were not International Summits on AI uh there were not
trillions of dollars pouring into it and now all those things are true so like
when you look back on the last I guess it's now 14 years since you started it
what's what's sort of been most surprising both about what has worked
know it's great to be here and thanks everyone for coming and it's great to be
here in the heart of London um thinking about these kinds of things and you're
right as when we started 15 years ago um virtually no one was talking about AI in
and myself we were both postdocs at Gatsby at UCL at the time we couldn't
really tell our professor because he he would have just definitely at best
laughed us out the room at worst s thought we'd sold out you know and and
gone away from research and what we were trying to what I was trying to do was
show that Cutting Edge research could be done in in a company uh deep research uh
um that we could make very fast progress kind of like an Apollo program effort
really for for AI and I've been thinking about it for actually 15 at least 15 20
years even before that but I felt that around 2010 I could see um we had the
right ingredients so um you know deep learning well they're called Deep belief
networks actually Jeff Hinton and and and Co had just to sort of invented some
foundational papers in 2006 2007 but it hadn't been really wide adopted yet gpus
Neuroscience and how the brains algorithms worked um and bringing that
all together was what made us feel like you know really fast progress could be
made and what was your starting point back then because it wasn't as I mean
today there's lots of people not that many people because it's so expensive
but there's some people that like oh you know we're going to build an llm we're
going to raise you know but that wasn't on the table then what did you where did
you start yeah we were just trying to scrape together frankly you know our
first um seed round it was it was it was almost impossible um we you know I
didn't pay myself a salary for first couple of years things like that but we
we we knew you know this was our life's work and um certainly been my life's
work and um I felt that finally maybe the time had come so it was so exciting
to try and get that going and we managed to find enough people to just get the
get the seed round done and and actually just start making progress towards this
overall goal seem Monumental at the time we had a kind of 20year road map
everyone has a 20-year road map for a deep tech company but but the
interesting thing is usually the joke is like you know it stays 20 years away as
the years progress but actually um we're more or less on track unbelievably so
perhaps that's the most surprising thing is that all these um hypotheses we had I
guess came out to be true you know so certainly on the on the research side
and the algorithm side you know betting on learning and generality very early on
things like reinforcement learning and and deep learning obviously the core of
our very first work in our Atari work and we sort of invented the field of
deep reinforcement learning um was was turned out to be the right approach and
um and then we also knew that if it did work it would it should become the
biggest thing ever because you should be able to apply this kind of general
intelligence to almost any field you know any field of human endeavor um and
ago so a lot of people will have seen or heard about some of the stuff you demoed
last week at at Google IO but from your perspective like what were the
highlights what what what is AI capable of today well look we well I mean it was
a fantastic event and we we it was very exciting um for me the Highlight was
our vision for what um I'm calling a kind of universal assistant or Universal
AI agent could be like and and how it could help in your everyday life and
that the main key thing about it is its multimodality so its ability to
context we're in so I think that was what's missing from the language agents
is they didn't understand the context the spatial context you were in and and
the environment you were in so they can be that that limits their usefulness in
the end and um we always had this vision of something that could understand the
world around you through vision you know eventually audio and all the other
senses as well um and that's why we built Gemini our large model to be um
series of models to be multimodal from the beginning able to cope with any kind
of input and eventually produce any kind of output and um and that's that's the I
think the vision that we have for maybe the next year or two of having truly
smart assistance which I think um you know will be a pretty big um Game
Changer yeah if you haven't seen the Astra demo video I do encourage you to
watch it I don't want to spoil it but there there's there's a bit right at the
end which I think shows that these systems shows the power of of actually
having a very long context on on the video side right that's right so the
long that was one of the Innovations we came out with with gani you know 1.5
million tokens now and maybe we can go a lot further than that and that means uh
you you can now ingest you know all of War and Peace or you know even like an
hourong video and and then ask questions of the system about it and it can answer
back intelligently and that opens up whole new possibilities for you know as
an analysis tool or a sort of research assistant um but also for uh then with
Astra are streaming live video um obvious ly and then doing things like
something that happened a long time ago ambiently in the video stream uh and it
could be you know super useful I think for you know an elderly person to
remember where their medicine is or you know where your car keys are or
something like that so I just think there we've H barely scratched the
surface of what I can imagine these things will be used for so one thing
that I think a lot of people would be interested to get your take on is you
know you already mentioned that you know over the next couple years we can expect
to have you know things like more powerful personal assistant you know
do you think about what are the big remaining sort of Unsolved challenges
that we might see progress in over the next couple of years yeah I mean it's
pretty clear to me and I've I've said this publicly a few times that that that
what's missing from the current systems so obviously multimodality memory these
are things that we're working on and making good progress but it's missing
like planning uh and actions and it has some form of reasoning but not really
what do planning mean in this context well sort of the ability to break down
you know the ability to achieve a goal that you might set a system so it has to
be able to act in the world take actions so like the more like the game agents we
we we're famous for we sort of build in the past I mean take like alphao you
know there's some objective that you give it as the user and then obviously
in games it's normally to win the game or to maximize the points um and then
abstract it has to have the ability to break that down into a set of steps that
are achievable set of interim goals interim plans uh and then that to build
up overall into this uh uh bigger plan and that involves you know needing to do
things like you know maybe tree search over over a planning trajectory perhaps
imagine uh in in 3D in in your you know in the Mind's Eye like what might happen
capabilities that um the current systems don't have uh and I think what we need
and I think the next big Advance will be combining the sorts of things we did in
planning for for for programs like alphago um with but instead of it just
being limited to a game environment obviously instead you you you you
connect that to you know all of language um and perhaps all of multimodal context
around you and that that model uh and then do planning over that I think
that's the next um you know the next big Advance we're going to see well this is
quite important isn't it because I think um clearly one of the reasons that uh
particularly large language and now multimodal models have got so good over
the last few years is just the enormous amounts of compute that are being
invested in training and and also an inference um and you know so some people
like to say you know scale is all you need but it sounds like from what you're
saying there actually there are some new ideas that won't just come from scaling
required and these large models are going to be part of an overall solution
to say AGI so I think there's not much doubt there now there is the question is
that we're talking about might just emerge um but I find it hard like some
of these other things we're discussing like planning feel like slightly
maybe a small handful of breakthroughs still required to get us all the way to
human level a AI maybe that's a good segue into talking about a very
different sort of Paradigm of AI if you like from the large mod large multimodal
models which is AI for science which you know I think you know Google Deep Mind
probably has a uh you know a unique uh strength and so a couple weeks ago seems
like forever in AI it feels like in AI it's like every week there's like a a
generation of of progress but two two or three weeks ago You released Alpha fold
3 which for a lot of scientists that I know they describe was revolutionary can
you describe what it is for people that don't know biology yeah so I mean maybe
we start with Alpha fold 2 which was the program we released you know a few years
ago now which essentially um solved one of the grand challenges in biology right
50-year Grand Challenge you know called protein folding and essentially what it
depends in biology depends on proteins for for their function and um you know
proteins described by its Amino acid sequence so you can think of it roughly
as the genetic sequence for the protein and um the protein folding problem is
can you predict the 3D shape that that protein that sort of string of beads if
you like folds up into in the body um just from the genetic sequence the amino
acid sequence and um the reason that's important is the 3D Shape uh uh uh kind
of tells you a lot about the function that that protein does right in the in
the body so if you want to understand disease or you want to just design a
drug to Target something you need to understand the 3D Shape of the of the
protein and then usually that would you know in the past experimentally it's
years you know that the rule of thumb is one PhD student their entire PhD to do
warm structure and but there's there's you know 20,000 proteins in in the
humans and then there's 200 million known to science in all of nature so it
solution to it and that's what Alpha fold 2 was and uh sort of essentially
solved that problem and then we spent a year folding all 200 million proteins so
that would have taken you know equivalent of like a billion years of um
you know PhD time which is incredible uh done in one year so that's I think the
power of computational methods and then Alpha fold 3 which we just released as
you said you know last couple of weeks takes that one step further now and
biology is is not a static system right it's a dynamic emerging uh system and so
effect Alpha fold 2 was the static picture of a protein and then Alpha fold
3 now allows you to understand how proteins interact with other
biomolecules um so of course other proteins but also strands of DNA RNA and
also things like ligans you know um compound chemical compounds effectively
uh useful for like drug Discovery so it's sort of a another huge leap and
entire virtual cell the workings of an entire virtual cell really accurately so
that one could do experiments in silico on the cell the virtual cell and that
would be informative of what would actually happen in the in the real lab
and so what do you want to do with this because I think everyone here will have
obviously heard of deep mine but they may be less familiar with ismor Labs
what what what is isomorphic and what's your plan right so we span out
isomorphic after Alpha fold 2 was done and the idea was is to the reason we
we design drugs and uh the first step is understanding the surface of the protein
The Next Step which isomorphic is doing is designing a drug compound that will
bind to the right part of the protein um and ideally not bind to anything else
because that would be a side effect right so you kind of want to minimize uh
improving Alpha all the time to make it more Dynamic but also um uh building
other modules like chemistry modules more going into biochemistry to to which
design you know uh molecules that will bind into the right place so I think the
hope is that um well of course Alpha fall is being used for for millions of
things now fundamental biology and disease understanding and so on but also
especially uh revolutionizing you know drug design and Drug Discovery and
taking it down from years to maybe months I think what's particularly cool
apart from the sort of impact that it can have on you know kind of people's
lives one of the things from an AI perspective I really like about the
stuff that you that you and your team have done on in the science side is that
it does sort of show that AI isn't this monolithic thing it's not just this you
know large land range models one of the things that you put out I think earlier
this year maybe it was the very end of last year was this paper Alpha geometry
problems and sort of people often talked about this as one of the problems that
would be like the last things before we got AGI but but Alpha geometry solves
basically to almost gold medal standard Geet problem yeah no it does and it um
obviously only the geometry problems is only around onethird of the IMO uh uh
usually for in an average Olympiad set of problems but but we're making
progress also on the non geometry side too so yeah I think that maths is
actually quite well suited to these sorts of systems um and exploring um you
know you almost can think of it as moves in a game right of like you know if you
that's almost like making a move in a game and then you have to assess whether
the new uh state of the equation is is you know you're making progress towards
can apply it to and um I think we will be able to be gold level soon at IMO um
and and then that can probably translate to other things like reasoning coding um
you often find in with these systems is if you if you build it to be better in a
certain direction that actually improve you can kind of Port that back into the
main system and improve that but you're you're right there's a lot more going on
than just um large uh language models and and I think for a long while yet the
that with the next few years I think there's going to be um needs for both
yeah um the interesting thing is that the general system can call the
investigating others too like that whether the general system learns to do
tool use and then can use these specialized systems um to improve you
know whatever that is its maths ability its coding ability or you know playing
things like chess yeah well I think that was one of the things I found cool about
that paper was that it combined a language model and a you know kind of
more traditional symbolic reasoning engine yeah well youve talked about
games a lot so let's talk about games so you were a you were a very serious chess
player um you then obviously very famously uh beat go um with alphao and
lots of people have seen the the documentary um I think less well known
although you know is is in the public domain is that Demis is also a champion
diplomacy player I don't know if you know what diplomacy is but it is a game
of alliances and betrayal uh it's very open-ended you there's no you know
there's no sort of like um it's not like chess where there's a limited number of
moves um and like slightly well hugely to my surprise that is also an area
where AI has made kind of a lot of progress so when you think about games
what what AI not yet able to win and how do you think about that um yeah I mean I
think we've got you know games have always been so that was part of the
ground so I think that's the issue always actually with if you're starting
on a kind of very ambitious deep Tech uh company and maybe many of you in the in
the in the audience are working on deep tech companies um you have this sort of
enormous 20y year ambitious goal but you've got to be able to break that down
one of the key things is actually choosing the right interim Milestones to
prove to obviously your backers and investors that you're making progress
and your team but also your team and yourself that you're actually in the
right direction and I think we did that that's one thing we did well with deep
mind is pick the right kind of interim goals whether that's a tari game go or
you know protein folding and um games was always the thing I had in mind
games and using games and I also training my own mind on games I I guess
you could call it playing chess from you know very young age as very formative
for me um and I think that it has all the right attributes to test out your AI
algorithms on but I think we have got to the point in the last few years where AI
can pretty much play almost any game now to a very high standard and for us Alpha
zero was the Pinnacle of that which was a evolution of alphao but that could
play any two-player perfect information game of course there are you know other
challenges like Pok in diplomacy where there are other ISS things come into it
even in those domains I think uh the current AI systems are getting pretty
good although it always surprises me that the language models are terrible
playing even a simple game of chess that's really annoy actually and needs
to be fixed and you know we're working on but it's it's interesting that it has
um that issue it's interesting what it says about the those kind of language
it's interesting actually that they fail at that currently um you think that will
go away with scale because I did I remember reading that paper about AEL
which is a much simpler game and there is some evidence that it has some
if You' ever try to play chess against it then it will if you get it sort of
starts taking its own pieces and things like it just it just forgets where
things are so there's something clearly missing yeah I think it's quite
important actually probably what that's telling us so uh I think that's you know
going back to your earli question that's a big hole in in in in the capabilities
of our current systems I'm sure it'll get fixed but it suggests to me
something's missing not not just um not just scale um yeah you you touched on a
especially entrepreneurship in the UK I mean when you started deep mind uh there
were very few people actually starting uh companies in the UK relative to today
and certainly deep tech companies like like that um you ended up having to
raise a lot of your capital from outside the UK um what's your take on where the
it's like night and day from from how it was back in 2010 it was hard to start
anything but especially I think it's really hard to start a deep tech company
community and you know and also appetite for some for funding something that
potentially would have that longer payoff um and uh even though obviously
the payoff would be enormous so I did end up going to the US to find actually
even there it wasn't really the VCS it was more individual entrepreneurs who
who had made it themselves and understood what a journey like that
would be like um that that were were were backing it but the one reason I
stayed in the UK was um I mean first you obviously I love it here growing up here
and but I do think we have enormous Talent here always have I mean I don't
know how many you know it's like three or four of the top univers top 10
universities in the world are in in the UK um and it's it's always been that way
and so we produce amazing talent um and then I used to think and then why was I
started a deep m in London was that you know if you didn't want to go back back
then if you didn't want to go and work for hedge funds and you say you had a
PhD in physics from Cambridge or something then there weren't that many
options and you wanted to stay in the UK so I felt there was a sort of you know
competitive Advantage by being here and actually um making the most of that
talent pool almost unopposed uh uh in the UK and actually for most of Europe
if you look at the the Big Technical University in Switzerland and Germany
know five six seven years I would say then people caught on and now it's great
to see all of the multinationals have got their you know London bases here and
also all the VCS sort of I think stood up a notice so I like to think that deep
mine had a non-n negligible um part to play in that making putting you UK on
the map for deep Tech but also showing that it could be successful here there
was the talent base to the VC world and and hopefully that's made it a lot
easier for um companies that have followed uh uh since and we've got so
many strengths here in the UK in biotech and Finch Tech and other places where I
think Quantum where um you know we've got great University departments and
great talent and we just need to have that ambition and then I think there is
now um a much better funding environment yeah I mean we we first got to know each
other now quite a long time ago back in 2017 when our mutual friend Reed Hoffman
introduced us and you invested alongside Reed in entrepreneur first series a and
um you know I I two things I'd say on what you just said one it's amazing the
impact because no one had heard of deep mind because you were in stealth as well
weren't you I remember when when you sold to Google the impact that had on
explosion of AI startups around that time but also this point that um it
really was the case that near all the computer science grads that we met and
our job is to go into universities and find these people they wanted to go work
in Banks I mean that was you back in 2011 2012 and I do think that's changed
Arya the the advanced research and invention agency which Emily mentioned
in her introduction and you kindly joined the Advisory Board I'm the chair
actually sticking its you know hand up and saying wigg going to we're going to
go all in on not just you know being a you know a software Capital but actually
trying to do the the really hard stuff that's going to change the world how do
you think about that stuff yeah I think it's fantastic and I think it's amazing
what you've done with ef and and encouraging uh you know these these
um safety Summits and and I know you of course you've been heavily involved
withan earlier as well um and just encouraging that technology base and I
really think that Britain needs to lean into that from uh from several
of our superpowers is that we have this really deep technical base and I think
Now's the Time to start deep technical companies um that that that that produce
really amazing new technologies um and we can build not just a company around
that but whole Industries around that and I think that's what we're seeing
with AI That's What We may see you know in the years to come in many other areas
too um and I think it's great great to see that us embracing that as a nation
um and it what it also means is that gives us more influence on the global
stage if you to to then influence um the societal impacts of this and how it will
of the technology then you sort of lose your moral authority to lead and
influence in that way and be have a seat around the table and also you you'll be
at the Forefront or have advisers or or you know companies and things that and
universities that are at the Forefront that can then advise government um and I
think it's fantastic experiments like Arya to to pursue that even further and
in this case change Academia a bit too to be more forward thinking more
um perhaps like you know the old daro IA ARA was I think that's what it was
modeled on right so um and course they had that line DARPA had that line in
their founding Mission which was to avoid and create technological surprise
and you know this point that if you're not if you're not doing the science
you're not going to know what's coming well I I I mean look I I always U
imagine an alternate universe where um timeline where you know Alan Ching as as
you know is one of my alltime heroes scientific Heroes but imagine instead of
persecuting him the government had unlocked all of the um you know the
the the the kind of Secrets um that were kind of way past their cell by day
frankly after the war with the Enigma machine lers we could have had Silicon
should churing should have should have been at the head of some new you know
Mega startup I will say just as a side note um because you've already mentioned
the a safety Summits when I was uh co-leading the work on the preparation
for that last year I went to China and went to sort of do the Diplomatic work
with with them about them coming which they did do and you know honestly I
think one of the reasons that they were were so engaged is that their minister
of Science and Technology also had Alan churing as one of his Heroes and you
broke into English to tell me that he'd been to Alan Ching's house and to the
Manchester industrial Museum so if that's not soft power I don't know what
I don't know what it is well exactly I mean look you know the UK I've always
said this about the UK obviously we've got world-class universities today you
know I hope Deep Mind and and has helped to stimulate an AI industry here and
what the work you know people like you have done with the funding environment
but we've also got an incredible Heritage with people like churing and
babage even before that and and and we've always been at the Forefront of
know fitting that we're we you know we're helping to be in the Vanguard of
just today I think you on a call with a group of world leaders for the second AI
safety Summit which the has been host hosted um in the Republic of Korea um
one thing that I've always admired uh about you and and your co-founder Shane
is that you've been very very consistent in how you've talked about AI safety for
about a safety how do you think about it today yeah the reason we were thinking
that from the very Inception of of Deep Mind and even before and then we've
infused that into Google and and you know you can see we we our original sort
of Ethics Charter became you know was the first draft really for Google's AI
principles which you know were then became public uh several years ago um is
that we plan for Success so we had this mad you know crazy ambitious scheme uh
road map for how AGI could be reached then if we really believed that it was
possible in 20 years then we also knew that the impact that would have and
therefore it would need to be done very responsibly and with ethics and safety
at the Forefront of our minds at all times and I think that's um that's also
transpired you know with with the the way the Technology's gone and and the
impact it's already had which I think is just a fraction of what we're going to
it I believe it's going to be the most beneficial technology ever invented but
only if we um apply it in the right way and build it in the right way and that
means the next you know 10 years let's say five 10 years is going to be very
critical what happens from here and I think it's what's great is I think it's
great that um maybe the the good part of this uh uh uh all the language models
BEC being super sort of mainstream is that um that the the governments have
sort of woken up to that and and I think that's useful um and and I've been
around getting their heads around both the opportunities and the challenges for
these Technologies and I think it's great that we are having that debate now
and with these Summits and you know you obviously helped organize the UK played
a major part help organize the UK one um it's it's good that we're doing that now
next few years yeah and I think one thing that uh you and I have talked
about in the past that you know personally I find really important to
emphasize is that um caring about this topic doesn't come from wanting to from
being anti-tech it comes from a position of uh you know really wanting to see
amazing Tech built and you know something that that I know we both agree
on is like the the way you deal with the risks of any technology not just AI um
isn't just about you know Banning things and regulating things it's also about
building building safety into what you do uh you've done a ton of that from the
beginning a deep mind um as you and I were discussing the other day I've just
think is uh the way I see kind of acceleration uh and safety going hand
inand what do you think's like missing what would you like to see people build
yeah I mean that's that's awesome that you're doing that so sort of emphasizing
the defensive capabilities I think it's great to try and make that asymmetric
and and and you know we're we're we're we're collaborating on um and many
others but there's a lot it's a very hard space in some ways coming up with
the right benchmarks is maybe even harder than coming up with the right
maybe analogous to Neuroscience analysis tools for for real brains to analyze
these virtual brains and um there's great work people you know folks like
up in these neuron networks and we we do a lot of work on that as well with a lot
I just think there's um and then beyond that we need to think about uh uh
building things like safe sandboxes that are um safe from cyber security
perspective from from outside breaking in but also the AI systems potentially
uncertain it may turn out that a lot of these things are much easier to deal
with than we we expected and that would be great um but some of them may be much
situation where there's a high degree of certainty then one must proceed with
cautious optimism in my view is is the correct way to proceed until you get
more evidence that's the scientific method that's that's the thoughtful and
I guess intentional way we've always tried to advance the frontier um it gets
hard when you're in the middle of a commercial you know uh frenzy like we
seem to be at the moment with AI but at the core of it you know we try and at
think is the way we call it rather than say moving fast and breaking things
which I think you know obviously is amazing for making the fastest progress
and that's the sort of Valley Mantra but I think is not appropriate for something
going to be I think that something like the scientific method is a much more
suitable approach and the funny thing as we talk about is you probably couldn't
meet more two more techno Optimist than I I mean I'm unbelievably techno
Optimist in the sense of like I've always thought AI would be the ultimate
all of humanity and solve many many of the big Grand challenges that are facing
society and Humanity today from climate to disease to you know economic output
but um what I sort of maybe kind of find amusing about the the people who come to
this space a lot later maybe in the last year or so you know perhaps they were
doing crypto last year or something and then this year it's AI you know and
they're like you know accelerationists or whatever it is and and they don't
understand what what is amusing is they don't actually fully understand the
enormity of what's coming because if they did they would understand that
that's the I'm very optimistic we can get this right but only if we do it
carefully and take the time needed to do it and and don't rush you know headlong
blindly into it I think we got to treat it with the respect that the the
technology deserves and if we do that I have no doubt we'll we'll end you know
something uh again people might know about you not know about you is you are
a very Avid Reader you read a lot of things that had nothing to do with AI so
if you're going to recommend one non non air related book to the audience what
my all-time favorite books on just the the the the it would be the fabric of
Reality by David Deutch I think that's the best book on trying to sort of
understand the nature of reality which ultimately is what I'd like to try and
do with AI um and then maybe one of the books that um that's that in the last
year I've read that I've enjoyed most is when we cease to understand the World by
labu his amazing writer it's unbelievable book one of the best
insights to like what genius is is yeah it's and scientific discovery and how
amazing it is but also you know what it's like to be at the frontiers of of
knowledge yeah fantastic well deis this has been great fun uh thank you for
being here and I think to wrap up the day we have Mark FR who leads strip in