JULY

2024

AKDITAL CAPITAL INCREASE : ANALYSIS

POINT
02 Executive Summary
03 Akdital is breathing life into its growth model
04 Following the 2022 IPO, a come back to the stock market which is amply justified
05 A stock market context still favorable to the “Health” thematic

Rapport à usage institutionnel

 JULY
04 2024
By Attijari Global Research

SECTOR HEALTH

AKDITAL CAPITAL INCREASE - SUBSCRIBE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
CONSERVER COSUMAR 180 DH

Akdital's capital increase of MAD 1.0 Bn is a continuation of its development model which is mainly “growth”
Lamyae Oudghiri
focused. Since its IPO in December 2022, Akdital has confirmed its position as a leader in the Moroccan private
Manager
health sector through a market share of 15% in terms of private bed capacity and a displayed commitment to
+212 529 03 68 18
improving the health system in Morocco.
l.oudghiri@attijari.ma
In accordance with its Business Plan, disclosed during its IPO in 2022, Akdital displays both rapid and sustainable
growth in its operational indicators. At the end of June 2024, the operator has 23 health establishments with a
total capacity of 2,532 beds spread across 11 cities in the Kingdom.

At the end of our analysis and taking into account the current stock market context, we recommend investors
“SUBSCRIBING” to Akdital’s capital increase. Our recommendation is based on the following arguments:

(1) « Health » thematic continues to arouse keen interest within the financial community, driven by the King-
dom’s new vision. Concretely, the overhaul of the national health system and the generalization of health
insurance to the whole population should generate positive news flow in favor of the stock in the future;

(2) A positive track record for Akdital since its IPO in terms of: (1) the opening pace of health establishments,
(2) the growth of its operational indicators and (3) the behavior of its stock on the market. For investors,
this new fundraising portends a new positive stock market cycle for the years to come;
(3) A “Growth” stock which should benefit from an improvement in its valuation multiples through a P/E 27E
of 12.4x. Concretely, the dilution of shareholders on the market during this new capital increase should be
absorbed gradually, as the new establishments become operational (commissioning of +12 Post-Money
units in Q4-25E and in 2026E);
(4) A displayed discount of 13.0% compared to the subscription price (as of July 2nd 2024), offering investors
an attractive entry point and an additional safety cushion for their capital gain over a ST horizon.

RESEARCH REPORT | EQUITY | 02 ANALYSIS POINT : AKDITAL CAPITAL INCREASE

 By Attijari Global Research

AKDITAL IS BREATHING LIFE INTO ITS GROWTH MODEL

Having experienced a significant growth since 2021, Akdital confirms its leadership in the private health sector in Morocco. The operator
offers a wide range of medical care divided into several specialties (Chemotherapy, Block, Resuscitation, ICU1, Radiotherapy). Commit-
ted to the development of the Kingdom's health system, Akdital holds 15% of the private bed capacity through a large network of multi-
disciplinary clinics and oncology centers. This involves 2,532 beds spread across 23 establishments at the end of June 2024 (14 new
openings in the space of 2.5 years). Since the launch of its 2nd “development plan” in December 2023, Akdital has clearly expanded its
geographic presence to 11 cities currently compared to 2 in 2021 and 6 in 2022.

Given an insufficient supply of services, the private sector has established itself as one of the main health care providers in Morocco and
contributes up to 38% to the national bed capacity in 2023. It benefits from more than 80% of the expenses of CNOPS and CNSS health
insurance plans. The sector's growth potential in the LT remains significant, as evidenced by Morocco's low bed capacity ratio, i.e. 1.2
beds per 1,000 inhabitants compared to an average of 1.5 for the MENA region.

AKDITAL: EVOLUTION OF MAIN ACTIVITY INDICATORS AT THE END OF JUNE 2024

GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE AKDITAL: BED CAPACITY WEIGHT OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR

IN UNITS IN TERMS OF BEDS AT THE END OF 2023
2,532
2021 2 CITIES 2,300
1,822 +232
+478
2022 6 CITIES
912
2024YTD 11 CITIES 600
+910
38%
+312

HEALTH SECTOR : 44.130 BEDS

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024YTD PRIVATE SECTOR : 16.591 BEDS

Since its IPO in December 2022, Akdital has shown both rapid and sustainable growth in its operational indicators, in line with its Busi-
ness Plan. This development is reflected in the level of admissions which records an AAGR of +65.0% over 2021-2023.

This growth dynamic was driven by the sustained pace of opening of health establishments during this period, i.e. 8 openings in 2022
(Casa 1, Agadir 2, Tangier 2, Safi 1 and Sale 2) followed by 5 openings in 2023 (Fez 2, Bouskoura 1, Mohammedia 1 and Beni Mellal 1). At
the end of this period, Akdital reaches a capacity of 2,300 beds in 2023 (i.e. +478 additional beds) allowing a visible increase in its revenue,
going from 1,035 in 2022 to MAD 1,907 Mn in 2023. For its part, EBITDA increases by +81%, going from 283 to MAD 511 Mn between 2022
and 2023. Likewise, the earning power has doubled in one year, exceeding the threshold of MAD 170 Mn in 2023.

According to Management's forecasts for 2024E-2025E, Akdital should realize 10 new openings by the end of 2024, bringing up the
number of establishments to 33 in 2024E (i.e. coverage of 19 cities). At the end of Q3-25E, Akdital should operate in 5 new cities through
the opening of 6 new establishments. The additional bed capacity would be +2,155 units to reach a target size of 4,455 beds in 2025E.
These developments should result in:
 An AAGR of +25% in revenue over 24E-27E , going from 3,037 to MAD 5,954 Mn with a contribution from new establishments (+18 units
by T3-25E) of 48% at the end of the studied period;
 A more sustained AAGR in EBITDA of +26%, from 868 to MAD 1,723 Mn, given the expected improvement in margin levels thanks to
economies of scale (centralization of purchasing) and optimization of the mix-product. Akdital intends to focus its openings on multi-
disciplinary centers whose gross margin are higher than that of oncological units.

AKDITAL: EVOLUTION OF 2019-2025 “PRE-MONEY” REVENUE AKDITAL: EVOLUTION OF EBITDA AND EBITDA MARGIN

EBITDA Margin (%)

AAGR 21-23 +57% AAGR 24E-27E +25% EBITDA (MAD MN)
5,954 28.9% 28.9%
28.6%
27.9%
5,461
27.3% 26.8%
4,611
24.4% 1.576 1.723
3,037 1.286
1,907 868
1,035 513
770 188 282

2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

(1) ICU: Intensive Care Units Sources: IN AKDITAL, AGR Calculations

RESEARCH REPORT | EQUITY | 03 ANALYSIS POINT : AKDITAL CAPITAL INCREASE

 By Attijari Global Research

FOLLOWING THE 2022 IPO, A RETURN TO THE STOCK MARKET WHICH IS AMPLY JUSTIFIED

With a raising of nearly MAD 1.0 Bn, Akdital's capital increase is a continuation of its development model. This is also the 2nd largest capi-
tal transaction on the stock market since 2020, just after Managem (April 2024). At the end of this operation and under the assumption of
the non-participation of the reference shareholders (GAS1) and the MCIII-Al Razi investment fund (fund managed by the private equity
company Mediterrania Capital Partners), the capital floating would stand at 39% compared to 32% pre-CI (dilution of historical share-
holders of around 10%).
The structure of this capital increase offers two tranches to different categories of investors. The 1 st amounts to MAD 800 Mn in
proportion to Demand, of which a minimum subscription is set at MAD 3 Mn, or 4,477 Shares. For its part, the 2 nd tranche amounts to
MAD 200 Mn without any minimum required with a 1st allocation of 200 Shares per subscriber (MAD 134,000) and a 2nd allocation in
proportion to the excess of Demand beyond 200 Shares.

Ultimately, the number of new Shares to be issued stands at 1,492,537 shares, at a unit price for the 2 tranches of MAD 670 against a
current price of MAD 771 as of July 2nd 2024. This is a discount of 13%.

AKDITAL: TECHNICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CI AKDITAL: PRE VS. SHAREHOLDING POST INCREASE

MCIII AL RAZI

TRANCHE 1 10.5% 9.4%

1.194.029 new Shares / MAD 800
FLOATING

MAD1.000 TRANCHE 2 PRE CI 31.6% 38.8% POST CI

MN 298.508 new Shares / MAD 200 Mn

PRICE PER SHARE

57.9% 51.8%
MAD 670
GAS1

Based on the new Business Model announced by the top Management, Akdital intends to pursue its aggressive development strategy
over the period 2025E-2026E. The operator plans to (1) strengthen its presence in 5 cities in Morocco, namely Casablanca, Marrakech,
Fez, Tangier and Agadir and (2) establish itself in 7 new medium-sized cities whose medical offer is very weak such as Taza, Berkane,
Khmissat, Kalaa Sraghna, Larache, Berrechid and Sefrou.

This new development strategy from Q3-25E requires an investment of MAD 1.4 Bn over the studied period, i.e. more than 70% of the said
capital increase. The operator's bed capacity should more than double above 5,700 units by 2026E, i.e. an additional capacity of more than
+3,100 beds, almost 40% of which comes from the CI of MAD 1.0 Bn. This involves the opening of 18 new establishments over 2025E-
2026E (including +12 “Post-Money” clinics), thus bringing the total target number of the Group establishments to 51 in 2026E (coverage
of 31 cities in the Kingdom).

This investment effort is part of the Kingdom's strategic orientation aimed at generalizing medical coverage to the entire population.
Note that patients treated in care centers represent nearly 61% of the operator's revenue in 2023.

POST-CI : MAIN TREND « POST-MONEY » AKDITAL : TARGET ACTIVITY LEVEL INDICATORS 2026E

BED CAPACITY NEW OPENING GEOGRAPHIC 31 cities in 2026E

COVERAGE Vs. 11 2024YTD

2024E
01 3,723 (+1.423 BEDS) 01 +12 Pre-Money
2024E
NUMBER OF
51 Establ
ESTABLISHMENTS
Vs. 23 2024YTD
2025E 2025E
+6 Pre-Money
5,005 (+1,282 BEDS)
INDLUDING 550 POST-M +5 Post-Money NEW
+28 Establ
OPENING
+16 « Pre-Money »/ +12 « Post-Money »
2026E 5.705 (+700 BEDS) 2026E +7 Post-Money
ADITIONNAL BED
+3.173 Beds
CAPACITY
Vs. 2024YTD / +1,250 « Post-Money »
TOTAL 25E PRE-M: 4.455 BEDS TOTAL 25E PRE-M: 39 ESTABL

(1) GAS: Group of Stable Shareholders, These are Rochdi Talib, Fatima Akdim,
Ahmed Akdim, Brahim Akdim, Jaouad Zakaria and Mohamed El Mrini Sources: IN AKDITAL, AGR Calculations

RESEARCH REPORT | EQUITY | 04 ANALYSIS POINT : AKDITAL CAPITAL INCREASE

 By Attijari Global Research

A STOCK MARKET CONTEXT STILL FAVORABLE TO THE “HEALTH” THEMATIC

Particularly for the Moroccan market, the “Health” thematic should continue to arouse keen interest, driven by the Kingdom’s new
vision. We note the profound overhaul of the national health system and the generalization of health insurance to the entire population:

 Generalisation of AMO: The Kingdom's decision to extend the Compulsory Health Insurance (AMO) system for the benefit of 22
million additional people, which would bring the medical coverage rate to 79% of the population compared to 21% in 2020. These
policyholders will benefit from coverage of treatment, medication and hospitalization costs. This historic decision is one of the main
drivers that support the performance of the stock on the equity market;

 « Health 2025 » Plan: A government strategy which aims to upgrade public health Offer. This ambitious program will require a
significant budgetary envelope, i.e. a total investment of MAD 24 Bn, including MAD 12 Bn which should come from the general
State budget and nearly MAD 8 Bn in the form of a Public-Private Partnership.

MOROCCO: EVOLUTION IN THE MEDICAL COVERAGE RATE AKDITAL: EVOLUTION OF THE SHARE SINCE THE IPO

ANNUALIZED PERF SINCE IPO: +125%

17% 21% 79% 800
698 710
700
29.4 Mn 600
520
500

400 320
7.4 Mn 300
300
6.0 Mn
200

100

0
déc.-22 juin-23 déc.-23 juin-24
2018 2020 2023
Prices as of 07/01/2024

Analyzing the Business Plan announced by the Top-Management, the stock multiples of Akdital emerge as follows: a P/E 24E of 30.7x
and a EV/EBITDA 24E of 11.5x. These valuation levels do not take into account the +12 openings in 2024E (10 establishments in H2-24 and
6 new openings in 2025E). Under these conditions, the earnings growth scenario during 2024E-2027E “Pre-Money” would allow a rapid
and continued normalization of the stock's valuation levels.

Akdital plans to more than double its profit during the period 2024E-2027E (from MAD 276 Mn to MAD 686 Mn) due to the increase in the
contribution of new establishments. Under this strong hypothesis, the stock would trade at attractive valuation multiples by 2027E, i.e. a
target P/E of 12.4x compared to 17.0x for the MASI index. The dilution of shareholders through this new capital increase should be
absorbed gradually, as the operator's new establishments become operational (commissioning of the +12 "Post-Money" units projected
for Q4-25E and in 2026E).

Akdital remains a “growth” stock rather than a “yield” stock on the MT. Although the operator has raised its DPS to MAD 6.0 in 2023 with
a target increase of MAD 1.5 per year by 2027E, the yield remains well below the 5-year TB (reference on the Equity market), i.e. an aver-
age D/Y 24E-27E less than 2%.

AKDITAL: NIGS GROWTH HYPOTHESES AKDITAL: EVOLUTION OF “PRE-MONEY” INDUCED P/E

36.1x
AAGR 21-23 +90% AAGR 24E-27E +35%
686
30.7x
586
402
21.1x
276
P/E MASI 2024: 17.0x
175
88 16.2x
48
12.4x

2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E

*Management forecasts – IP 2024

*P/E 2024E very partially includes the +12 new openings in 2024E and does not yet include the +6 openings in 2025E Sources : IP AKDITAL, AGR Calculations

RESEARCH REPORT | EQUITY | 05 ANALYSIS POINT : AKDITAL CAPITAL INCREASE

ATTIJARI GLOBAL RESEARCH
HEAD OF STRATEGY MANAGER SENIOR ASSOCIATE ASSOCIATE
Taha Jaidi Lamyae Oudghiri Mahat Zerhouni Walid Kabbaj
+212 5 29 03 68 23 +212 5 29 03 68 18 +212 5 29 03 68 16 +212 5 22 49 14 82
t.jaidi@attijari.ma l.oudghiri@attijari.ma m.zerhouni@attijari.ma w.kabbaj@attijari.ma
Casablanca Casablanca Casablanca Casablanca

CHIEF ECONOMIST MANAGER ASSOCIATE INVESTOR RELATIONS ANALYST

Abdelaziz Lahlou Maria Iraqi Meryeme Hadi Nisrine Jamali
+212 5 29 03 68 37 +212 5 29 03 68 01 +212 5 22 49 14 82 +212 5 22 49 14 82
ab.lahlou@attijari.ma m.iraqui@attijari.ma m.hadi@attijari.ma n.jamali@attijari.ma
Casablanca Casablanca Casablanca Casablanca
Casablanca

FINANCIAL ANALYST SENIOR ANALYST FINANCIAL ANALYST

Anass Drif Ines Khouaja Ulderic Djadjo
+212 5 22 49 14 82 +216 31 34 13 10 +237 681 77 89 40
a.drif@attijari.ma khouaja.ines@attijaribourse.com.tn u.djadjo@attijarisecurities.com
Casablanca Tunis Douala

Equity
BROKERAGE - MOROCCO
Abdellah Alaoui Rachid Zakaria Anis Hares Alae Yahya Sofia Mohcine
+212 5 29 03 68 27 +212 5 29 03 68 48 +212 5 29 03 68 34 +212 5 29 03 68 15 +212 5 22 49 59 52
a.alaoui@attijari.ma r.zakaria@attijari.ma a.hares@attijari.ma a.yahya@attijari.ma s.mohcine@wafabourse.com

AIS- MOROCCO WEAMU - CÔTE D’IVOIRE BROKERAGE - TUNISIA CEMAC - CAMEROON

Tarik Loudiyi Mohamed Lemridi Hichem Ben Romdhane Ernest Pouhe
+212 5 22 28 28 28 +225 20 21 98 26 +225 29 318 965 +237 651 23 51 15
t.loudiyi@attijariwafa.com mohamed.lemridi@sib.ci h.benrhomdane@attijaribank.com.tns e.pouhe@attijarisecurities.com

Bonds /Forex /Commodities

MOROCCO EUROPE
Mohamed Hassoun Filali Amine Elhajli Loubaba Alaoui Mdaghri Dalal Tahoune Youssef Hansali
+212 5 22 42 87 24 +212 5 22 42 87 09 +212 6 47 47 48 34 +212 5 22 42 87 07 +33 1 81 69 79 45
m.hassounfilali@attijariwafa.com a.elhajli@attijariwafa.com l.alaouim@attijariwafa.com d.tahoune@attijariwafa.com y.hansali@attijariwafa.net

EGYPT TUNISIA MIDDLE EAST - DUBAÏ WEAMU - CÔTE D’IVOIRE CEMAC - GABON
Ahmed Darwish Mehdi Belhabib Sherif Reda Abid Halim Atef Gabsi (Gabon)
+20 127 755 90 13 +216 71 80 29 22 +971 50 560 8865 +225 20 20 01 55 +241 60 18 60 02
ahmed.mdarwish@aattijariwafa.com.eg mehdi.belhabib@attijaribank.com.tn sreda@attijari-me.com abid.halim@sib.ci atef.gabsi@ugb-banque.com

Elvira Nomo (Cameroun)

+237 67 27 34 367
e.nomo@attijarisecurities.com
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