Running head: MANAGERIAL REPORT FOR CARLSON DEPARTMENT STORE 1

Managerial Report for Carlson Department Store

Student’s Name

Institutional Affiliation
MANAGERIAL REPORT FOR CARLSON DEPARTMENT STORE 2

Managerial Report for Carlson Department Store

The closure of the store for four months between September 2000 and December 2000

significantly impacted the sales. Although there is no certainty over the exact loss in sales that

the store recorded over the period, a forecasting model can provide an ideal prediction. A

regression of the historical sales shows a negative relationship between month and sales. It

implies that the store recorded a decline in sales over the period due to the closure. However, as

its operations, there are expectations that sales will increase.

Assuming that there were no hurricanes, Carlson Department Store would have

maintained the same trend its sales. The forecast model of y = 0.0092x + 2.2181 provides an

appropriate tool for predicting the sales under both conditions. The sales in the forty-eighth

month would be estimated at $2.66 million. In the subsequent months, the sales will increase to

$2.67 million and $2.68 million. The trend shows that the sales would be increasing by $0.01

million per month if the hurricane could not have occurred.

For the countywide department store, the total sales if there were no hurricanes would

increase in the subsequent month. The prediction estimates a forecast to $65.76 million in total

county sales for the first forecast. Subsequently, the sales would increase to $66.89 million and

$66.02 million respectively. The trend indicates that the sales would increase by 0.1278 million

per month for the subsequent periods if there had been no hurricane. The analysis shows that the

company lost an average of $0.01 million in sales per month due to hurricane assuming that the

sales trend would have remained constant. The sales estimate is based on the slope of the trend

line that reflects changes in sales per unit time.

The countywide store sales for September through to December shows an overall

increase. The positive trend implies that the department would generate an increasing sales
MANAGERIAL REPORT FOR CARLSON DEPARTMENT STORE 3

volume and value irrespective of the conditions. Based on the forecast, there would be an

increase in sales if the hurricane did not occur. It implies that the excess storm-related sales

would decline over the period of forecast.