Lecture-4 Ch6

Essential Environment: The Science Behind
the Stories
Chapter 6
Human Population
Copyright © 2022, 2019, 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
This Lecture Will Help You Understand
• The scope of human population growth
• The effects of population, affluence, and technology on
the environment
• Demography
• Demographic transition
• Factors affecting population growth
Case Study: Will China’s New “Two-Child Policy”
Defuse Its Population “Time Bomb”? (1 of 3)
• In 1970, China instituted a population control program that
restricted most couples to a single child.
• Efforts included increased accessibility to contraceptives
and abortion, rewards for single-child families, and fines
and social scorn for those with more children.
– Fertility rates dropped from 5.8 to 1.6 children per
woman.
– The growth rate is dropped from 2.8% to 0.3%.
Defuse Their Population “Time Bomb”? (2 of 3)
• The one-child policy created problems Figure 6.1 China’s one-child policy is
– the population’s labor force shrank, leading to a shrinking workforce and
the percentage of elderly increased, rising numbers of older citizens.
and there were too few women.
– The decrease in young workers
has made it difficult for employers
and may affect the economy.
– The culturally increased value of
male children combined with the
one-child policy led to selective
abortion and the killing of female
children.
– The male-to-female ratio is
unbalanced, creating large
numbers of young men who
cannot marry.
Defuse Their Population “Time Bomb”? (3 of 3)
• The population “time bomb” of an aging population with
skewed male-to-female ratios has led to a change in
Chinese policies.
– In 2013, if either member of a married couple was an
only child, then the couple was granted permission to
have two children.
– In 2015, the one-child policy was immediately altered
to a two-child policy.
• It is unclear how many Chinese couples, who are now
used to greater wealth and an urban lifestyle, will decide
to grow their families.
Our World at Nearly 8 Billion
• China is not the only country
with population issues; India
lacks similar stringent policies
and will soon become the most
populous country.
– The current world
population is over 7.8
billion, with most of the
growth occurring in poorer
nations.
Figure 6.2 India will likely soon

surpass China as the most
populous nation.
The Human Population Continues to
Grow (1 of 3)
• The human population grows by over 80 million per year;
that is, more than two people added every second.
– The human population did not reach 1 billion until
after 1800.
– A billion people are currently being added about
every 12 years.
Grow (2 of 3)
• This is an example of exponential growth, where a small
percentage growth rate still produces a large increase due
to the size of the base population.
Figure 6.3 We have risen

from fewer than 1 billion in
1800 to more than 7.4
billion today.
Grow (3 of 3)
• The doubling time of a country’s population can be estimated by taking the
number 70 and dividing it by the annual percentage growth rate.
– Global doubling time is 70/1.1%, or 64 years
– China’s doubling time prior to the one-child policy was 70/2.8%,
or about 25 years. It is now about 233 years.
Figure 6.4 Population growth rates vary greatly from place to place.
Is There a Limit to Human Population
Growth? (1 of 2)
• Our population growth is largely due to technological,
agricultural, and sanitation advances that reduced death
rates. Can this growth continue?
• British economist Thomas Malthus argued that the
number of people would eventually outgrow the available
food supply.
– Paul and Anne Ehrlich of Stanford University made
similar warnings in their 1968 book, The Population
Bomb.
Is There a Limit to Human Population
Growth? (2 of 2)
• Despite a quadrupling of the human population, these
predictions have not fully materialized.
– Food production has intensified as a result of the
“Green Revolution.”
• Despite these improvements, population growth still
depletes resources, stresses social systems, and
degrades the natural environment.
Population Is One of Several Factors
That Affect the Environment
• The IPAT model represents how our total impact (I) on
the environment results from the interaction of
population (P), affluence (A), and technology (T).
I = P A T
– Increased population means more individuals take up
space, use resources, and generate waste.
– Affluence leads to greater per capita resource
consumption.
– Technology can increase impact by enhancing our
ability to exploit resources or decrease impact by
improving efficiency.
Demography
• Principles of population ecology can be applied to the
study of statistical changes in the human population.
– This is called demography.
Demography Is the Study of Human
Populations (1 of 8)
• Demographers study several characteristics of the
human population:
– Size
– Distribution
– Age structure
– Sex ratio
– Rates of birth, death, emigration, and immigration
• The current population size is about 7.8 billion, spread among 200 nations.
– The United Nations predicts that by 2050, the global population will surpass
9.6 billion.
• Many other demographic aspects determine environmental impact besides size.
Figure 6.5 Almost one in five people in Figure 6.6 The United Nations predicts
the world lives in China, and more than world population growth.
one of every six live in India.
• Age structure diagrams, also called population pyramids, describe the
relative numbers of individuals at each age class within a population.
– This is valuable in predicting the future growth of a population.
Figure 6.7 Age structure diagrams show numbers of males and females of different age
classes in a population.
• A pyramid with a wide base denotes a large proportion of pre-reproductive age
people and the potential for rapid future growth.
• A pyramid with an even age distribution indicates a stable population.
• A pyramid with a higher proportion of post-reproductive age adults indicates a
shrinking population.
Figure 6.7 Age structure diagrams show numbers of males and females of different age
classes in a population.
• For example, Nigeria’s large concentration of individuals in young
age groups predicts a much greater population growth rate than
Canada.
Figure 6.8 Canada (a) shows a fairly balanced age structure, whereas Nigeria
(b) shows an age distribution heavily weighted toward young people.
• The global population is older than in past years.
– The median age today is 31; in 2050, it is predicted to
be 36.
• This creates strain in social welfare programs in some
countries, as fewer young workers are supporting more
elderly.
• The naturally occurring sex Figure 6.9 As China’s population ages,
older people will outnumber the young.
ratio at birth for human
populations is 106 males
born per every 100 females
born.
– This is likely an
evolutionary adaptation
to the increased
mortality rate faced by
males at all ages.
• In China, age distributions
have become increasingly
skewed.
• The cultural gender Figure 6.9 As China’s population ages,
older people will outnumber the young.
preference for male
children, coupled with the
one-child policy, has
resulted in roughly 113
Chinese boys born for
every 100 girls.
– The leading
hypothesis is that
many parents are
using ultrasounds to
determine the gender
of their unborn fetus,
and then selectively
aborting females.
Population Change Results From Birth,
Death, Immigration, and Emigration (1 of 3)
• Births and immigration add individuals to a population.
• Death and emigration remove individuals from a
population.
• Global decreases in infant mortality rates, the frequency
of children dying in infancy, have played a large role in
population growth.
– Historically, families would have many children as
“insurance” against the likelihood of one or more of
them dying in infancy due to poor nutrition, disease,
and exposure.
• Infant mortality rates are closely tied to a nation’s level of industrialization.
– China, for example, saw its infant mortality rate drop from 47 children per
1000 live births in 1980 to 9 children per 1000 live births in 2020.
Figure 6.10 Infant mortality rates are highest in poorer nations, such as those in sub-
Saharan Africa, and lowest in wealthier nations.
• In recent decades, falling Figure 6.11 The annual growth rate of the
growth rates in many global human population peaked in the late
1960s and has declined since then.
countries has led to an
overall decline in the
global growth rate.
– This is primarily due
to a steep drop in
birth rates.
• Immigration and
emigration also
significantly impact the
population of individual
nations.
Total Fertility Rate Influences
Population Growth (1 of 2)
• Total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children
born per woman during her lifetime.
– Replacement fertility is the TFR that keeps the size of
a population stable. For humans, this is 2.1.
• Industrialization, improved women’s rights, and health care
have decreased TFR in many nations in recent years.
– Nearly every European nation has a TFR below
replacement level.
– In 2020, Europe’s rate of natural increase, which only
includes birth and death rates, was −0.1%, which means
the continent’s population is slightly decreasing.
Total Fertility Rate Influences
Population Growth (2 of 2)
• Worldwide, by 2020, 99 countries have fallen below the replacement fertility
level.
Table 6.1 Total Fertility Rates for Major Regions
Region Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

Africa 4.4
Australia and the South Pacific 2.3
Latin America and the Caribbean 2.0
Asia 2.0
North America 1.7
Europe 1.5
Data from Population Reference Bureau, 2020. 2020 World population data sheet.
Many Nations Have Experienced the
Demographic Transition (1 of 5)
• Industrialized countries tend to have the highest life
expectancy increases due to a drop in infant mortality;
life expectancy is the average number of years a
person in an age group is expected to live.
• Countries still industrializing will pass through a series
of stages of economic and cultural change called the
demographic transition.
• During the pre-industrial Figure 6.12 The demographic transition models a
process that has taken some populations from a
stage, death rates are pre-industrial stage of high birth rates and high
high due to widespread death rates to a post-industrial stage of low birth
disease, rudimentary rates and low death rates.
health care, and

unreliable food supplies.
• People compensate for
high infant mortality by
having many children.
Birth control is not
available.
– Population growth,
overall, is stable.
• Death rates decline during the transitional stage, due to improved
food production and health care.
• Birth rates remain high as society has not yet adjusted to the new
economic conditions.
– Overall population growth rate is very high.
Figure 6.12 The demographic

transition models a process that has
taken some populations from a pre-
industrial stage of high birth rates and
high death rates to a post-industrial
stage of low birth rates and low death
rates.
• During the industrial stage, employment opportunities
increase for women and birth control becomes more
widely available, decreasing birth rates.
– Population growth slows and begins to stabilize.

transition models a process that
has taken some populations from
a pre-industrial stage of high birth
rates and high death rates to a
post-industrial stage of low birth
rates and low death rates.
• The population growth stabilizes or begins to shrink during
the post-industrial stage.
– The United States is in this stage, although it has higher
birth rates due to an increased immigration rate.

transition models a process that
has taken some populations from
a pre-industrial stage of high birth
rates and high death rates to a
post-industrial stage of low birth
rates and low death rates.
Is the Demographic Transition
Inevitable?
• The demographic transition has occurred in many
European countries, Canada, the U.S., Japan, and other
countries.
• Some developing countries are so overpopulated that
they may not be able to complete a transition, creating
demographic fatigue.
– Many sub-Saharan African countries, given their high
populations and prevalence of HIV/AIDS, are in this
position.
Population and Society
• There are many economic and societal factors that affect
fertility in a nation.
– Access to contraceptives
– Acceptance of contraceptive use
– Level of women’s rights
– Cultural influences, such as television programs
– Level of affluence
– Importance of child labor
– Availability of governmental support for retirees
Family Planning Is a Key Approach for
Controlling Population Growth (1 of 2)
• Family planning is the effort to plan the number and
spacing of one’s children.
• Birth control includes all efforts to reduce the frequency
of pregnancy.
• Contraception is a deliberate attempt to prevent
pregnancy despite engaging in sexual intercourse.
– Many family-planning organizations provide free or
discounted condoms, spermicides, hormonal
treatments, or surgical sterilization.
– Rates of use range from 84% in China and the United
Kingdom to less than 20% in some African nations.
Family Planning Is a Key Approach for
Controlling Population Growth (2 of 2)
• Access to family planning gives women control over their reproductive
window, the time at which they can become pregnant.
Figure 6.13 Women can potentially have very high fertility within their “reproductive
window” but can choose to reduce the number of children they bear.
Empowering Women Reduces Fertility
Rates
• In order to reduce fertility Figure 6.14 Increasing female
rates, women must be given literacy is strongly associated with
equality in decision-making reduced birth rates in many nations.
power and access to
education and job
opportunities.
• Equal rights also lead to
women having the ability to
make reproductive decisions
themselves, leading to further
drops in fertility rates and
overall better care for
children.
Fertility Decreases as People Become
Wealthier (1 of 2)
• Poorer societies tend to Figure 6.15 Poverty and population
growth show a fairly strong correlation,
have higher population despite the influence of many other
rates than wealthier ones. factors.
• Economic factors are tied

closely to population
growth.
– Poverty exacerbates
population growth.
– Rapid population
growth worsens
poverty.
Important Terms
Growth rate: The number of persons added to (or subtracted from) a population in a year due to
natural increase and net migration; expressed as a percentage of the population at the beginning of
the time period.
Less developed countries: Less developed countries include all countries in Africa, Asia
(excluding Japan), and Latin America and the Caribbean, and the regions of Melanesia,
Micronesia, and Polynesia.
More developed countries: More developed countries include all countries in Europe, North
America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
Net migration: The net effect of immigration and emigration on an area's population in a given
time period, expressed as an increase or decrease.
Rate of natural increase: The birth rate minus the death rate, implying the annual rate of
population growth without regard for migration. Expressed as a percentage.
Urban: Percentage of the total population living in areas termed urban by that country. Typically,
the population living in towns of 2,000 or more or in national and provincial capitals is classified
as urban.
Birth rate (or crude birth rate:) The annual number of births per 1,000 total population.
Death rate (or crude death rate:) The annual number of deaths per 1,000 total population.
Mortality: Deaths as a component of population change.
Total fertility rate (TFR): The average number of children a women would have assuming that
current age-specific birth rates remain constant throughout her childbearing years (usually
considered to be ages 15 to 49).
Fertility Decreases as People Become
Wealthier (2 of 2)
• Most of the next billion Figure 6.16 The vast majority of
people added to the future population growth will occur
in developing regions.
human population will
come from developing
countries, meaning that:
– Those countries will
continue to be
economically strained.
– Environmental
degradation will
continue due to
poverty.
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2006 Revision.
Figure : Age distribution of populaiton in three countries with distinct patterns
The dependency ratio is a measure used to indicate the ratio of people in the "dependent" ages
(under 15 and ages 65 and older) per 100 people in the "economically productive" ages (15–64
years of age). The formula for the dependency ratio is:
Q: According to Figure, what percentage of the population of the Democratic Republic of Congo,
the United States, and Germany are 0–4 years old? Which of the three countries has the greatest
proportion of people ages 65 and older?
Q: Calculate the dependency ratios for Congo, the United States, and Germany. Compare the
components of each of them.

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Essential Environment: The Science Behind

Figure 6.2 India will likely soon

Figure 6.3 We have risen

Table 6.1 Total Fertility Rates for Major Regions

Region Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

health care, and

Figure 6.12 The demographic

Figure 6.12 The demographic

Figure 6.12 The demographic

• Economic factors are tied

Mortality: Deaths as a component of population change.

Figure : Age distribution of populaiton in three countries with distinct patterns

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