‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ :‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺃﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﺒﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻋﺒﻲ‬

‫ﻗﺩﻤﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻜﻤﺎ ﹰﻻ ﻟﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭﺍﻩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﻋﻤﺎل‬

‫ﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻴﺎ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻴﺎﺭ‪٢٠٠٨،‬‬
All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit
 ‫אﻹهداء‬

‫إﻟﻰ روح واﻟدي اﻟطﺎهرة إﻟﻰ اﻣﻲ اﻟﻐﺎﻟﻳﺔ إﻟﻰ إﺧواﻧﻲ أﺧواﺗﻲ‬
‫اﻷﻋزاء‪.‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺷآر وﺗﻘدﻳر‬

‫اﻟﺣﻣد اﷲ ﺳﺑﺣﺎﻧﻪ وﺗﻌﺎﻟﻰ اﻟذي أﻋﺎﻧﻧﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺗﻣﺎم هذﻩ اﻟرﺳﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬أوﺟﻪ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻟص اﻻﺣﺗرام واﻟﺗﻘدﻳر إﻟﻰ أﻋﺿﺎء اﻟﻬﻳﺋﺔ اﻟﺗدرﻳﺳﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻷردﻧﻳﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺳم اﻗﺗﺻﺎد اﻷﻋﻣﺎل‪ ،‬وأﺧص ﺑﺎﻟذآر اﻟﻣﺷرف ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟرﺳﺎﻟﺔ اﻷﺳﺗﺎذ‬
‫اﻟدآﺗور ﺑﺷﻳر اﻟزﻋﺑﻲ‪.‬‬
‫آﻣﺎ وأﺗﻘدم ﺑﺎﻟﺷُآر واﻻﻣﺗﻧﺎن إﻟﻰ أﻋﺿﺎء ﻟﺟﻧﺔ اﻟﻣﻧﺎﻗﺷﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﻗدﻣوﻩ ﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻣن ﻧﺻﺢ وﺗوﺟﻳﻪ ودﻋم وﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎ ﺑذﻟوﻩ ﻣن ﺟﻬد ﻓﻲ ﻣراﺟﻌﺔ هذﻩ اﻟرﺳﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬

‫اﺣﻣد اﻟﻣﺟﺎﻟﻲ‬
 ‫ﻓﻬﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘــﻭﻴــﺎﺕ‬

‫א‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‬
‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﻟﺠﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻹﻫﺩﺍﺀ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻬﺭﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﺍﻭل‬
‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺸﻜﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺨﺹ ﺒﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩﻱ‬
‫‪١‬‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٢‬‬ ‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٣‬‬ ‫ﺃﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٣‬‬ ‫ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٤‬‬ ‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٥‬‬ ‫ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫‪٥‬‬ ‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٦‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫‪١٣‬‬ ‫ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻴﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬
‫‪١٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬
‫‪١٥‬‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻓﻴﻠﺒﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺴﻁ‬
‫‪١٧‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫‪١٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫‪١٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫‪٢١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ‬
‫‪٢٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫‪٢٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫‪٢٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫‪٢٦‬‬ ‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٢٧‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫‪٢٨‬‬ ‫ﻁﺭﻕ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪٣٠‬‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ )ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ( ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٣١‬‬ ‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬
‫‪٣٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﻡ‬
‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‪ :‬ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫‪٤٠‬‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫‪٤٣‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫‪٤٥‬‬ ‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬
‫‪٤٨‬‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫‪٥١‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ( ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٥٣‬‬ ‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٨٥‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫‪٦٥‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﻻﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫‪٦٥‬‬ ‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫‪٦٦‬‬ ‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫‪٦٧‬‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫‪٦٨‬‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٧٠‬‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ‬
‫‪٧٢‬‬ ‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‬
‫‪٧٥‬‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‬
‫‪٩٢‬‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‬
‫‪١٠٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‪ :‬ﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴـﺎﺕ‬
‫‪١٠٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫‪١٠٦‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫‪١٠٧‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‬
‫‪١١٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬
‫‪١٣٨‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺨﺹ ﺒﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ‬
 ‫א‬ ‫א‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ‬

‫‪٣٨‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪١‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪٧٥‬‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ ـ ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ‬ ‫‪٢‬‬
‫‪٧٦‬‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬ ‫‪٣‬‬
‫‪٧٧‬‬ ‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪٤‬‬
‫‪٧٩‬‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪٥‬‬
‫‪٨٠‬‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪٦‬‬
‫‪٨١‬‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪٧‬‬
‫‪٨٢‬‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬ ‫‪٨‬‬
‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫‪٨٥‬‬ ‫‪٩‬‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
‫‪٨٥‬‬ ‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬
‫‪٩٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬ ‫‪١١‬‬
‫‪٩٩‬‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ‪α‬‬ ‫‪١٢‬‬
‫_‬
‫‪١٠٠‬‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ⊥ ‪β‬‬ ‫‪١٣‬‬
‫‪١٠١‬‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪C‬‬ ‫‪١٤‬‬
 ‫ﻗﺎﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺸﻜﺎل‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ‬
‫‪٣٧‬‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪١‬‬
‫‪٤٢‬‬ ‫ﺍﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪٢٠٠٧-١٩٨٠‬‬ ‫‪٢‬‬
‫‪٤٧‬‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل‬ ‫‪٣‬‬
‫‪٥٤‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺄﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬ ‫‪٤‬‬
‫‪٥٧‬‬ ‫ﻫﻴﻜل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪٥‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫‪٥٨‬‬ ‫‪٦‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫‪٦١‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪٧‬‬
‫‪٦٢‬‬ ‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ‬ ‫‪٨‬‬
‫‪٦٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫‪٩‬‬
‫‪٦٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬ ‫‪١٠‬‬
‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪٨٩‬‬ ‫‪١١‬‬
‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪٩٠‬‬ ‫‪١٢‬‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫‪٩١‬‬ ‫‪١٣‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫‪٩٤‬‬ ‫‪١٤‬‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺈﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻊ ﻓﻲ ] ‪ xt = [mt , yt‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪r‬‬ ‫‪r‬‬

‫‪٩٤‬‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل‬ ‫‪١٥‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ )‪.(Coefficients‬‬
 ‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ :‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺇﻋﺩﺍﺩ‬

‫ﺍﺤﻤﺩ ﻋﺒﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺭﻑ‬

‫ﺍﻷﺴﺘﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺩﻜﺘﻭﺭ ﺒﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻋﺒﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺨـﺹ‬
‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل )‪ ،(Cointegrated VAR‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺄﺨﺫ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺭﺒﻌﻴﻪ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪(٢٠٠٧-١٩٩٤‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻜل‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻗﻭﻱ ﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻗﻭﻱ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‪ ،‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻗﻠﻴل ﻨﺴﺒﻴ ﹰﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ )ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ(‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻷﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪١‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻬﻴﺩﻱ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺤﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻟﺘﻴﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﺘـﺴﻌﻴﺭ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺩﻋﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺸﺭﺍﺅﻫﺎ ﺒﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁـﹰﺎ ﻭﺜﻴﻘـﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻜﻠﻤﺎ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺘﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺘﻨﺘﺠﻪ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻨﺘﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺴﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻤﺎ ﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻻ ﻴﻘﺎﺒﻠﻬﺎ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻭ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺘﺒﺭﺯ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻔل ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻼﺌﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺠﻌل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺩﻨﻴﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻘﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺅﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﺎﻫل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌـﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺁﺨﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻻ ﻴﻐﻴﺏ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺎل‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺤﻠﻴﹰﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺘﻠﻘﺎﺌﻴﹰﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫـﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻴﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻠﺩ ﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﺍ‪ ،‬ﻴـﺴﺘﻭﺠﺏ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﺒﻠﺩ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻋﻥ ﻜﺜﺏ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺎﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺒﻭل ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ ﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﻀﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ) ‪ (Inflation Targeting‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤـﺩﻯ ﻟﻠﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ( ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺠﺎﻨـﺏ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ .‬ﻭﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺘﻌﺩ ﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻤﺒﺭﺭﺓ ﻭﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻴﺸﻭﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜـﺎل‪ ،‬ﺍﺴـﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـﺔ ﺘﺎﺒﻌـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺃﻤﺜل ﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟـﻙ ﺁﻟﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬـﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠـﻥ‬
‫ﺴﻴﻀﺭ ﺒﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﻜﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﻭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﻗﻨـﺎﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﺭﻭﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﻫـﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴـﻴﻁﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻟﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ( ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺴﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺘـﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ) ‪ ،(Federal Fund Rate‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬
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‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺘﺄﺸﻴﺭﻱ )ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ( ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠـﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻠﻙ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﹲﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﺡ ﻴﺠﺏ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻗﺒل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴـﻲ ﺍﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻤﻌـﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ(‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﻀﻤﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﻰ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺌﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻫل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ‬
‫ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ؟‬

‫• ﻤﺎﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ ﻜﻬﺩﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ؟‬

‫• ﻫل ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ؟‬

‫ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻴﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫• ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬

‫• ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴـﻴﻁﺔ ﻟﻠـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬

‫• ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪.‬‬
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‫• ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺃﻟﻴﻪ ﻟﺠﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺯﻤﻨﻴـﺔ ﻤـﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻹﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪ ،(Stationary‬ﺫﺍﺕ ﻭﺴﻁ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻭﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻭﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤـل‬
‫ﻤﺎﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻟﻠﻭﺼـﻭل ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ )‪ (VAR‬ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺤﺢ ﻟﻠﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺄﺨﺫ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ؟‬

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‫ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫• ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ )ﻭﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ( ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ )ﻭﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ( ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗـﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠـل‬
‫ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬

‫• ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ )ﻭﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ( ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗـﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠـل‬
‫ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻠﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻔـﺴﻴﺭﻫﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴـﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴـﺩ )‪(Vector Autoregressive‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫)‪ ،(The Unit Root Test of Stationary‬ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ )‪ (Granger‬ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴـل ﻤﻜﻭﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﻴﻥ ) ‪Variance‬‬

‫‪ ،(Decomposition‬ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل )‪.(Impulse Response Function‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤـﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟـﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤـل ) ‪Cointegrated‬‬

‫‪ ،(Vector Autoregressive‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ ﻤـﻥ‬
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‫ﺨﻼل ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺘﻲ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻤـﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻤﺴﺔ ﻓﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺨﺼﺹ ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺸﻜﻠﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺩﻓﻬﺎ ﻭﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﻤـﺎ ﺍﻟﻔـﺼل‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻓﻴﺸﺘﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻓﺨﺼﺹ‬
‫ﻻﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﺨـﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬
‫)‪ .(٢٠٠٧-١٩٩٣‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺠﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‬

‫ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ )‪ (M2‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ )‪ (٢٠٠٧-١٩٩٤‬ﻭﺒـﺸﻜل‬
‫ﺭﺒﻌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻴﻀﻊ ﻗﻴﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻼﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁـﺔ‬
‫) ‪Impossible‬‬ ‫ﺇﺸﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌـﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻟﺜـﺎﻟﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﺤﻴل‬
‫‪ (trinity‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺴﺘﺤﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻫﻲ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻔـﺎﻅ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻜﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺃﻱ ﻻﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﻀـﻭﺀ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ) ‪ (Peg Exchange Rate‬ﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺭﺃﻱ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺩﺏ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻴﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻴﻌﺘﺒـﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺄﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻌﻘﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺤﻲ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴل‬
‫‪ .Impossible Trinity‬ﻭﺃﻨﺼﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﻱ ﻴﻨﻅﺭﻭﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻭﺘﺘﻌﺎﻁﻰ ﻤﻊ‬
 ‫‪٦‬‬

‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﻤﺤﺎﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﺴـﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ )‪ (Inflation Targeting‬ﺃﻭ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﺴـﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺠـﺎﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ) ‪Money‬‬

‫‪ (Aggregate Targeting‬ﺃﻭ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ )‪،(Fixed Exchange Targeting‬‬

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‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤل ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻋﻭﻡ ﺒﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻋﻭﻡ ﺒﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﺘﺠﻌـل ﻤـﻥ ﻨﻅﺭﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻟﻭﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴل ﺒﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻹﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺩﻗﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻷﻗـل ﺘﻁـﻭﺭﹰﺍ‪.‬‬
‫ﻼ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺜ ﹰ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺇﺨﻼل ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﺒﺄﺤﺩ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟـﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤـﺎل‪ .‬ﻭﺃﻫـﻡ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﻫﻭﺍﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﻼل ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻜﺎﻤﻠـﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺃﺤﻴﺎﻨﹰﺎ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﻭﺍﻤﺵ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﺭﻏﻭﺒﺔ ﻜﺎﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻫـﺎﻤﺵ ﺒـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻟﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻟﺠﻌل ﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻜﻭﻋﺎﺀ ﺍﺩﺨﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻜﻬﺩﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﻟﺕ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﺎﻭﻟﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺴـﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻹﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠـﻲ ﺍﺴـﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ ( Johansen,and katarina 2001‬ﺒﻌﻨـﻭﺍﻥ ) ‪Controlling Inflation in a Cointegrated‬‬

‫‪ Vector Autoregressive Model with an Application to Us Data‬ﺘﻡ ﻗﻴـﺎﺱ ﻤـﺩﻯ ﺘـﺭﺍﺒﻁ‬

‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺩﻴﺭﺍﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤـﻊ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل )ﺃﺫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ( ﻭﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ‬
 ‫‪٧‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤـل )‪ ،(Cointegrated VAR Model‬ﻭﻗـﺩ ﺘـﻡ‬
‫ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻴﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫‪K −1‬‬

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‫‪∆ Yt = α ( β X t − µ ) +‬‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫‪∑ Γ ∆X‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪t −i‬‬ ‫‪+ A o ∆ Z t + φ D t + ε t .........١‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ) ] ‪ ( Yt = [ Ff t R3t R6 t‬ﻭ ) ‪ ( Z t = Trg t‬ﺤﻴﺙ ‪ :Trgt‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ) ‪Fed‬‬

‫‪/‬‬

‫‪ :Fft ،(Fund Rate‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺩﻴﺭﺍﻟﻲ‪ :R3t ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻨـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻷﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪ :R6t ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻷﺠل ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪ :Dt،‬ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻤﻲ )ﻴﻘﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ(‪ Ao φ α Γ ،‬ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ ، Dt‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨـﺔ ‪ ٨٢٤‬ﻤﻌﻠﻤـﺔ‬

‫)‪١٩٩٦\١\٢‬ﺍﻟﻰ‪.(١٩٩٩\٣\٢٦‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ Cointegrated VAR‬ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺜﻤـﺎﻨﻲ‬

‫‪(X‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻫـﻲ ) ‪= [ m − py ∆ p R 3 R 6 B 10 Ff Trg ] t‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪ :m-p‬ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ :y ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ :∆p ،‬ﻤﻌـﺩل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‪ :R3 ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻨـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻴﻨـﺔ‬
‫ﻷﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪ :R6 ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻷﺠل ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪ :B10 ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻷﺠل ﻋﺸﺭ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪ :Ff ،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴـﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴـﺩﻴﺭﺍﻟﻲ‪:Trg ،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ )ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ( ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴـﺩﻴﺭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ .(Fed Fund Rate‬ﻭﻜـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻴﻨﺔ ‪ ١٣٦‬ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ )‪١٩٨٥\٨‬ﺍﻟﻰ‪.(١٩٩٩\٢‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴـﻴﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺩﻋﻡ ﻜﺒﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﻟﻼﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺩﻴﺭﺍﻟﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓـﻲ ﺤـﺎل‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ (Bedini and Mosconi, 2000‬ﺒﻌﻨـﻭﺍﻥ ) ‪New Tools for the Dynamic Analysis of‬‬

‫)‪ ،Cointegrated VAR Models‬ﻫﺩﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻓﺤﺹ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﻤﺘﺴﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤـﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل )‪ (cointegrated VAR models‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﻁﻭﻴـل ﺍﻷﺠـل‬
 ‫‪٨‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺤــﺭﺍﻑ ﻋــﻥ ﺍﻟﻤــﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘــﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﻭﻗــﺩ ﺍﺴــﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴــﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴــﺭﺍﺕ‬

‫‪ ( x‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ X/‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨل ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ‪ ،VAR‬ﻭ ‪M‬‬

‫‪/‬‬
‫) ] ‪= [ ∆ M t ∆ y t ∆ 2 p t ∆ rt‬‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻭ ‪ y‬ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻭ ‪ ∆p‬ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭ ‪ r‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴـﺙ ﺘـﻡ‬

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‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺭﺒﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ ، (١٩٨٩:٤-١٩٦٤:١‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨـﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ %١‬ﺘﺴﺘﺠﻴﺏ ﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻋـﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ %٠,٤٧٣‬ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ %٠,٠٣٦‬ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ %٠,٠٤٢‬ﻟﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ %١‬ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ %٠,١‬ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪.%٠,٢‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ )‪ (Mosconi & Monti, 2004‬ﺒﻌﻨـﻭﺍﻥ ) ‪Optimal Control in Cointegrated Linear‬‬

‫)‪ ،Systems‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺸﺭﺡ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺨﻁـﻲ ﻤـﻊ ﺠـﺫﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟـﻰ ) )‪cointegrated I(1‬‬

‫‪ ،(VAR‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Z t + 1 = π 1 Z t + π 2 Z t − 1 + π 3 Z t − 2 + ε t + 1 .............٢‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬

‫‪Z‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫=‬ ‫‪[( m‬‬ ‫‪− p ) tπ lt y t s t‬‬ ‫‪] = [x t u t ] .................٣‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ) ] ‪ ( x t = [( m − p ) π t l t y t‬ﻤﺘﺠـﻪ ﺃﺒﻌـﺎﺩﻩ ‪ P‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴـﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﻴـﺴﺔ‬
‫‪/‬‬

‫)ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ( ﻭ‪ ut= st‬ﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﺃﺒﻌـﺎﺩﻩ ‪ M‬ﺘﻤﺜـل‬
‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠـﻪ ‪ Z‬ﻴﻤﺜـل ﺒﻭﺍﺴـﻁﺔ ))‪ (cointegreated I(1) VAR(2‬ﻋﻨـﺩﻤﺎ‬
‫) ‪ ( Pt − M t‬ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ π‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ Lt‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴل ﺍﻷﺠل ﻭ ‪ Yt‬ﺍﻹﻨﺘـﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭ ‪ St‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﻏﻭﺏ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻓﻤﻊ‬
‫ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻀـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻗـﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺠـل ﻋﻨـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ) ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻲ(‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٩‬‬

‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ (Cologni, 2005‬ﺒﻌﻨـﻭﺍﻥ ‪Rates in a Structural Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest‬‬

‫‪ ،VAR Model for the G-7 Countries Cointegrated‬ﻭﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻏﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﻁﺭﻕ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬

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‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤـل ) ‪Structural‬‬

‫‪ (VAR‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻊ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴـﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻌل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺸﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺃﺩﺕ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ (SIBI, 2001‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ)‪arbitrage Optimal monetary policy in the area of the Euro:‬‬

‫)‪ ،in inflation - output- interest rate adjustment‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﻭﺒﻲ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺨﻁﻲ ﻭﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭﻩ ﺒﺎﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺁل ‪maximum likelihood.‬‬

‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺩﺁﻟﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬

‫_‬
‫‪y t = ϕ 1 y t −1 + ϕ 2 y t − 2 + λ ( i t −1 − π‬‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪) + ε ty‬‬ ‫‪...........4‬‬

‫‪π t = α 1π t −1 + α 2 π t − 2 + α 3π t − 3 + α 4 π t − 4 + β y t −1 + ε tπ ........5‬‬
‫_‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ π‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ ١٢‬ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﻭﺒﻲ ‪ π‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﻊ‬
‫ﻓﺼﻭل ﻭ ‪ it‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭ ‪ yt‬ﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻟﻠـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﻤﻌـﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ )‪ (Villani, 2003‬ﺒﻌﻨـﻭﺍﻥ ) ‪Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy‬‬

‫)‪ ،Using Bayesian Cointegrated Structural VARs‬ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘـﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤـﺎل ﻜﺎﻨـﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‬
‫‪Γ 0o ∆ X‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪= αβ‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪+ Γ (L )∆ X‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪+ φ‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪d‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪+ ε t ........6‬‬
 ‫‪١٠‬‬

‫ﻫـــﺫﺍ ﻭﻗـــﺩ ﺍﺴـــﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـــﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـــﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـــﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴـــﺔ‬

‫‪ X‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ Y‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫‪t‬‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫‪= [ ∆ Y t ∆ Pt ∆ M‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪∆ i t ∆ e t ∆ oil‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫] ‪∆ if t‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ P‬ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ M‬ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ i‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬

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‫ﺃﺫﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺯﻴﻨﺔ ﻷﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ e‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ )ﻜﻡ ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻭﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠـل‬
‫ﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ( ‪ ،‬ﻭ ‪ Oil‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻤﻘﻴﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭ‪ If‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒـﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗـﺩ‬
‫ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺼـﻐﻴﺭ ﺒـﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ ﻭﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ‪ VAR‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻜﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ (Morsink, 2006‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ‪ ،Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland‬ﻭﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻲ ﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ )‪ (Control Inflation‬ﻤـﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﻠـﻲ‬
‫)‪ (Macroeconomic Model‬ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻴﺭﻟﻨﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﻴﻭﺯﻟﻨﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﻨﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤـﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺸﺘﻘﺎﻕ ﺘﻭﻟﻴﻔﺔ ﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻨﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺙ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺭﺸﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻌل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪Ygapt = β1 + β2Ygapt+1 + β3rrgapt−1 + β4 Z gap + β5Ygap* + ε tgap .......٧‬‬

‫‪t‬‬

‫‪π t = δ 1π t4+ 4 + (1 − δ 1 )π t4−1 + δ 2 Y gapt −1 + δ 3 ∆Z t + ε tπ .......٨‬‬

‫‪Z t = φ Z t + 1 + (1 − φ ) Z t − 1 − ( rr − rr t ) / 4 + ε tZ ...................٩‬‬

‫‪rst = α 1 rt −1 + (1 − α 1 )(rr _ eqt + π t4 + α 2 (π t4+ 4 − π T ) + α 3Ygapt + ε trs ...١٠‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ‪ Ygap‬ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ rrgap ،‬ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘـﻲ‪Zgap ،‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ * ،‬ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪ π ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ Z ،‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘـﻲ‪rr ،‬‬

‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ r،‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ rr-eq ،‬ﻫﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﻭ‬
‫‪ ε‬ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪١١‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﺴﺅﻭل ﻋـﻥ ﺠﻌـل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﻀـﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤـﺩﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻠل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﻠﻴـل ﺍﻵﺜـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ (Poddar, 2006‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ) ‪ ،(Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Jordan‬ﺘﻬـﺩﻑ‬

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‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻓﺤﺹ ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﺒﺎﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘـﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺸـﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴـﺩﺍﻉ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺯﺌﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﺨﺫ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟـﺩﻭﻻﺭ ) ﻓﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠـﺱ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴـﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻴـﺩﻴﺭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ‪ .(Fed Fund Rate‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻫﻲ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻓﻌﺎل ﻜﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪ (Al-Mashat, 2007‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ )‪،(The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Egypt‬‬
‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻓﺤﺼﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺼﺭ ﻜﺄﺴﺎﺱ ﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﻭﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﻴـﻴﻡ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ )‪ ،(VAR‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻴﻠﻌﺏ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻗﻭﻴﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ) ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‪ ،‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ( ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻘﺩ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ )‪ (Corridor System‬ﻓﻲ ﻋـﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ ،٢٠٠٥‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﺭﻱ )‪ ،(٢٠٠٤‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ :‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻠﻌﺒﻪ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤـﺩﺙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻬﺎ ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺃﺴﺒﺎﺒﻪ ﻭﺁﺜﺎﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨﺤﻨـﻰ ﻓﻠﻴـﺒﺱ‬
‫ﻗﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺠل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨـﺎﺕ‬
 ‫‪١٢‬‬

‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪ ٢٠٠١-١٩٦٧‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﻌﺩﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺩﻻﻟـﺔ ﺇﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻁﺎﻟﻘﺔ )‪ ،(٢٠٠٤‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻡ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤـﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻻﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﺸـﻬﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ ،(٢٠٠٢-١٩٧٦‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺒـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻻﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺍﺜـﺭ ﻤﻌﻨـﻭﻱ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺩﻴﺎﺕ )‪ ،(٢٠٠٣‬ﺍ ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺈﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺼﺎﺀ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨـﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ) ‪ (٢٠٠٠-١٩٧٠‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻔﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠـﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﻭﺩ ﺒـﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺍﻭﻱ)‪ ،(٢٠٠١‬ﺒﻌﻨﻭﺍﻥ ﻤﻴﻜﺎﻨﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻫﺩﻓﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻴﻨﺘﻘل ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ )‪ (M2‬ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ )‪ ،(١٩٩٨-١٩٨٩‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﻭﻗﻴـﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﻪ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻜﻼ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ) ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ( ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﻭﺠـﻭﺩ ﺍﻓـﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﺌﺘﻤـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻴﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻋﻠﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﺘﺘﻌﻠـﻕ ﺒﻬـﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ‪ Cointegrated VAR‬ﻜﻤـﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌـﺽ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴـﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﻋﻤـل ﺃﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﻌـل ﺒﻌـﺽ ﻨﺘـﺎﺌﺞ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﻀﻠﻠﺔ ﻭﻴﺸﻭﺒﻬﺎ ﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻁﺎﺀ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺴﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻫـﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺒﻔﺤـﺹ ﺍﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻻ ﻗﺒل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤـﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺠـﺯﺀ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺨﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺨل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ .VAR‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺴﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺭﺒﻁ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫‪ VAR‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ )‪ (Cointegration‬ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ )ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ( ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺘﻠـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻟﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻟﻡ ﺘﻐﻁﻴـﻪ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺎﺕ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺠﻤﻊ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻊ ﻭﺍﻻﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺒﺈﺴـﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ‬
‫)‪ (Johansen,and Katarina 2001‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺕ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ‬
‫ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻼ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤـﺎﺩ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ ) ‪ (Corridor Rate‬ﺒﺈﺴﺘﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﻪ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌـﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺍﺸﻬﺭ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻤﺜل ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺠل )ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺠل ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻀﻌﻑ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺍﺼﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻁﺭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴـﺔ ﻭﺼـﻴﺎﻏﺔ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺃﻭﻟﻲ ﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻁـﻰ‬
‫ﺩﻗﺔ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل )ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
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‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ( ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫)‪ ،(Johansen, and Katarina 2001‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﺤـﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺨﺩﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﻴـﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴـﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ) ﺘﺤﺩﻴـﺩ ﻋـﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺎﺕ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ )‪.((Rank‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻱ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻔﺴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺃﻋﻠـﻰ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺇﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )‪ .(Romer,1996‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺼـﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻟﻠﻴﻤﻴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﻟﻸﻋﻠﻰ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜـﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻗﺎﺌﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﻻ ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻤﻭﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺒﻌـﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺅﻗﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺩ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺃﺼﺒﺢ ﺒﺩﻴﻬﻴﹰﺎ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻔﺴﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤـﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺍﻟﻁﻠـﺏ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﻭﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‪:‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫) ‪= L(R ,Y r‬‬ ‫‪…………١١‬‬
‫‪P‬‬
‫‪L R < 0, LY > 0‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ M‬ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭ ‪ P‬ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭ ‪ R‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴـﻤﻲ ﻭ ‪ Yr‬ﺍﻟـﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭ ‪ L‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﺭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺨﻼل ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻴـﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ )‪ ،(Romer,1996‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫= ‪P‬‬ ‫‪…………١٢‬‬
‫‪L(R,Y‬‬ ‫‪r‬‬
‫)‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﺎﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌـﺩل ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻫﻭ ﺴﺎﻜﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻻ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺘﺼﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻜﺎﻤ ﹰ‬
‫ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ ﻫﻤـﺎ ﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﻥ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺎﻥ‬
‫)‪ ،(Variable Exogenous‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻜﻠـﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺭﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻨﻤﻭ ﺒـﻪ ﺍﻹﻨﺘـﺎﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ )ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ( ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‪،‬‬
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‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﻤﺜل )ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻲ( ﻟﻠﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻟﻜل ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺯﻤﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫)‪ ،(Mishkin 2000‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻟﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺃﻱ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺼﻌﻭﺩﻱ ﺃﻭ ﻫﺒﻭﻁﻲ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﻌـﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒـﺎﺭ ﺘﻔـﺴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﺍﺭﺉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴـﺭﹰﺍ ﻤـﻥ ﺃﺠـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻟﻜل‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻭﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺃﺜﺭﹰﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺁﺜﺎﺭﹰﺍ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻶﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ)‪.(Mishkin 2000‬‬

‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻓﻴﻠﻴﺒﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺴﻁ‬

‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻓﻴﻠﻴﺒﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (Trade-off‬ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺘﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ )‪:( Osborn 2004‬‬

‫‪π t = K − α (U t − U tn ) …………١٣‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :K‬ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : π t‬ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪.t‬‬
‫‪ : α‬ﻤﻴل ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ‪. Philips‬‬
‫‪ : U t‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪.t‬‬
‫‪ : U tn‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪) t‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤل(‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﺘﺩﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ل ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻫـﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬـﺩﻑ‪ .‬ﻭﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺨﻠﻕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﺎ ٍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﻤﺜل ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟـﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﻘـﻕ ﻤﻌـﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻏﻭﺏ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺸﻭﺒﻪ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
 ‫‪١٧‬‬

‫ﻻ‪ :‬ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﺒﻁﺎﺀ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒـﺎﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤـﺔ ﻻﻨﻌﻜـﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻨﻭﻋـﺎﻥ ﻤـﻥ ﻓﺘـﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﻁﺅ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴـﺔ‬
‫ـﺔ‬
‫ـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـ‬
‫ـﻕ ﺍﻟـ‬
‫ـﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭﺘﻁﺒﻴـ‬
‫ـﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻤـ‬
‫ـﻴﻥ ﺍﻜﺘـ‬
‫ـﺭﻕ ﺒـ‬
‫ـﻲ ﺍﻟﻔـ‬
‫) ‪ ( Inside Lag‬ﻭﻫـ‬
‫)‪ (Outside Lag‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ )‪ ،( McCallum 1996 ) (time inconsistency‬ﻓﺎﻜﺘﺸﺎﻑ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤـﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻴﺤﺘﺎﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﻗﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﺨﺫ ﺼﺎﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ )ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ( ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺁﺜـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺘﻀﺭ ﺒﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺘﻠﻘﺎﺌﻴﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺇﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (trade off‬ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻔﻘﺩ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴـل‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﻁﺭﺤﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﺭﻴﺩﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺃﺩﺨل ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﺤﻨـﻰ‬
‫ﻓﻴﻠﻴﺒﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺘﻜﻴﻑ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﺘﻜﻴـﻑ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻟﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻓﻴﻠﻴﺒﺱ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪π t = π te − α (U t − U tn ) …………١٤‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﺭﺘﻔ ‪‬ﻌﺔ ﻭﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌـﺎﺕ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻷﺠـل‬

‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ‪ . π t = π t‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﻤﻨﺤﻨـﻰ ﻓﻴﻠﻴـﺒﺱ‬
‫‪e‬‬

‫ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺼﻔﺭ ) ) ‪ ( 0 = −α (U t − U tn‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ‪. U t = U tn‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ‪ ،‬ﺘﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻭﺠﻪ ﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸـﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻋﺘﻤـﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺭﻱ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻜﻴﻑ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬

‫ﺘﻨﻁﻠﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ )ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌـﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻺﻨﺘﺎﺝ( ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺘﻌﻤـل ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓـﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌـﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺜﺒﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻠﻤـﺎﺕ ﺜﺎﺒﺘـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻅﺎﻫﺭﻱ ﻷﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠـل ﺍﻟﺘـﺼﺤﻴﺢ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫـﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﺎﺫﺝ ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ‬

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‫ﻤﺩﻋﻭﻤﺔ ﺒﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻬﺎ ﻤﺴﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻘﻁﻌﻴﺔ ﻟﺩﻭل ﻜﺜﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﻌﻠﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻔﻬﻡ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﺘﺠﻬﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ "‪ "Forward-Looking‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻠﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﻓﻴﻠﻴﺒﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺙ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻪ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ )‪:( Osborn, 2004‬‬
‫‪π‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪= λX‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪+ φπ‬‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪+ [1 − φ ] β E t π‬‬ ‫‪t +1‬‬ ‫‪...............١٥‬‬
‫‪E‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ π t‬ﻭ ‪ ،Xt‬ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﻭ ‪ λ , φ , β‬ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ‪ IS‬ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌـﺩل‪Forward-and backward-) ،‬‬

‫‪ (looking‬ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻁﻰ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪= − K [ it − E tπ‬‬ ‫‪t +1‬‬ ‫‪] + φX‬‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪+ (1 − φ ) E t X‬‬ ‫‪t +1‬‬ ‫‪........١٦‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ i t‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭ ‪ K‬ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﺠﻭﻩ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬
‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺼﻐﻴﺭ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺨـﺴﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫)‪ ،(loss function‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫∞‬
‫‪E t { ∑ β i [α X‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪t+i‬‬ ‫‪+ π‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪t +1‬‬ ‫‪]} ..................١٧‬‬
‫‪i=φ‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﺤل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ١٦‬ﻭ‪ (١٧‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺨﺎﺼﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺼﻭﻓﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪π‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪= απ‬‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪+ u t ...............١٨‬‬

‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻥ ‪ ut‬ﺨﻁﺄ ﺃﺒﻴﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ‪ α‬ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻜـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ φ‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .(٦‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﺤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻓـﺈﻥ‬
‫‪ α‬ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪. φ‬‬
 ‫‪١٩‬‬

‫ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬

‫ﺘﺒﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ﻜﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‪،‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ﻋﺭﻀﹰﺎ ﻷﻫﻡ ﺜﻼﺙ ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺕ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﺭﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺒﺭﻴﺘﻭﻥ ﻭﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻟﻡ ﻴﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺨﻁﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻤﺎﺜﻠﺔ ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ‬
‫ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻴﻥ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺘﻬﺎ )‪ ،(Reinhart,2002‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺴـﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟـﻰ ﺨﻠـﻕ ﺘﺫﺒـﺫﺒﹰﺎ‬
‫)ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ( ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻤﻼﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻴـﻨﻌﻜﺱ‬
‫ﺴﺭﻴﻌﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻔﻀل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـﺔ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )‪.( Bleaney, 2002‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺇﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻴﻌﺩ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺠـﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﺤﻭل ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﻭل ﻤﺯﺍﻴﺎ ﻭﻋﻴﻭﺏ ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺃﻭﻀﺤﺕ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺯل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻟﻡ ﺘﺠﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺒـﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺃﻓﻀﻴﻠﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻋﻤﻭﻤﹰﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﻀﻴل ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻟﺨﻔﻀﻪ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺤـﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻀـﺒﻁ‬
‫ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺼﺎﻨﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌـﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﺘـﺅﺜﺭ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﺩﻭﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺨﻔـﻴﺽ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺼﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻴﻘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ)‪.(Amato, 2006‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤﻨﺔ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼـﺭﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﺘـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻤﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻵﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻵﺠﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺘـﺴﺒﺏ ﺒﺤـﺩﻭﺙ‬
‫ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻤﺎﺩﻴﺔ )‪.(Reinhart,2002‬‬
 ‫‪٢٠‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺼﺭﹰﺍ ﻤـﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻜـﺒﺢ ﺠﻤـﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤـﺔ ﻭ‪/‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻴـﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺤﺒﺔ ﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻌﻤل – ﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ‪ -‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺠﺭ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴـﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻬل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ)‪.( Amato 2006‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﺩل ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﺭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﻜﻤﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻴﻘـﺩﻡ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﹰﺍ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻪ ﻻﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺘﻠﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺏﺀ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ)‪.( Amato 2006‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺭﻯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻋﻴﻭﺏ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﺘﻜﻤﻥ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻴﻘﺩﻡ ﺘﺄﻤﻴﻥ ﻀﺩ ﻤﺨـﺎﻁﺭ‬
‫ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺫﺏ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗـﺕ‬
‫ﺫﺍﺘﻪ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻋﺭﻀﻪ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻟﻠﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺃﻨﻅﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﻭﺍﺠﻬﻭﻥ ﺤﺎﻓﺯﹰﺍ ﺃﻗل ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻭﻁ ﻀﺩ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﺸﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻻ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩل ﺘﺤﻴﻁﻪ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺫﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺨـﺫ ﺒﻌـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﻅل ﺃﻨﻅﻤﻪ ﻤﺭﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﺘﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﺒﻭل ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻁﺎﻟﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻴﻘﻴﻴﻥ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺴﻴﻜﻔﻠﻬﻡ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻁﻠﻕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻘﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻻﺌل ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻷﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻨﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺤﻭﻱ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺠﻌل‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ )‪.(Amato,2006‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺘﺘﻤﺤﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓـﺎﻟﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻭﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻻﻤﺜل‪ ،‬ﻓﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻴل ﺍﻟﻰ ﺭﺒﻁ ﻋﻤﻼﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻫﻴﺎﻜل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺴـﻭﺍﺀ ﻜﺎﻨـﺕ ﺍﻻﺴـﻤﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻨﻭﻉ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜـﺯ ﺍﻟﺠﻐﺭﺍﻓـﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﺠـﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺠـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻁـﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻭﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ‪ ،‬ﺘﻌﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴـﺴﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
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‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻀﻌﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺁﻨﻔﺔ ﺍﻟـﺫﻜﺭ ﻴﻌﻁـﻲ ﺍﻷﻓـﻀﻠﻴﺔ ﻟـﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ‪.(Reinhart,2002).‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ‬

‫ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻀﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻟﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻓﻌﺎل ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻌـﺩﻴﻼﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )‪.( Amato 2006‬‬

‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺒﻭﻁ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻤـل‬
‫ﺒﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺃﺴﻭﺀ‪ ،‬ﺤﺘﻰ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻭﻡ‪ ،‬ﻻ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺼﺎﻨﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴـﻌﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒـﺕ‬
‫ﻴﺭﺍﻓﻘﻪ ﺠﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺴﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻜﻠﻪ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨـﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴل )‪ (Impossible Trinity‬ﻻ ﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ‬
‫ﺒﺒﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺏ ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻤﻊ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ )ﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل( ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺇﺸـﻜﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻁﺒﻕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺨﺴﺭ ﺍﻟـﻀﺎﺒﻁ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟـﺘﺤﻜﻡ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺠﺒﺭﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺤﺏ ﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﺒـﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻴﻔﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﺭﻏﺒﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﺒﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺒﻨﺎ ‪‬ﺀ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﻐﻠﻕ ﺃﻭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺩ ﹰ‬
‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻌﻭﻡ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺒﻴﻌﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﻤﻠﻭﻨﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺸﺘﺭﻭﻥ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻟﻴﺼﺎﺭ ﺒﻌـﺩﻫﺎ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺼﻼﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻡ ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻌﻭﻀﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ ﺍﻷﺼﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻀﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺴـﻭﻑ ﻴﺤﻘـﻕ‬
‫ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻠﺘﺯﻡ ﺒﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒـﺕ ﻭﻟـﻥ‬

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‫ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻪ ﺨﻴﺎﺭ ﺇﻻ ﺍﻟﺴﻤﺎﺡ ﺒﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺨﺴﺎﺌﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ )‪(Ingves, 2004‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻅﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪:‬‬

‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻨﻅﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻟـﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﻁـﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁـﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴـﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﻤـﺩ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻴـﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻨﻌﻜـﺎﺱ ﺫﻟـﻙ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻴﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺒﺘﺩﺍ ‪‬ﺀ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺇﻴﺭﺍﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟـﺔ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻤﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒـﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺍﻟﺒـﺩﺀ‬
‫ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﻘﻠل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺴﻠﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﺭﻥ ﺃﻭ ﻤﻌﻭ‪‬ﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻠﺘﺯﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﻟﺭﻓﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺴﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺴﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟـﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ)‪.(Reinhart,2002‬‬
‫ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻓﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﻭﺏ ﻤﻊ ﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺒـﺎﺨﺘﻼﻑ‬
‫ﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻨﻅﻡ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻭﺍﺠﻬﺕ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻌﹰﺎ ﻜﺒﻴـﺭﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻨﻅﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜ ﹰ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﻀﺕ ﻓﻴﻪ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ ﺒـﺸﻜل ﺒﻁـﻲﺀ ﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
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‫ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﺭﻨﺔ ﻋﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺴﻴﻁ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻭﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨـﺎﻙ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﻤﻔﺎﺩﻫـﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ‪ ،‬ﻜﻭﻨﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻑ ﺒﺴﻬﻭﻟﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺤﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻜﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻻﻤﺘـﺼﺎﺹ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ﻤـﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤـﺎ ﻴﻤﻜﻨﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ)‪. (Ingves, 2004‬‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ ﻋﺭﻀـﺔ ﻟﻠـﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻌﻁﻴل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﺘﻁﻭﺭﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘـﺄﺜﻴﺭﻩ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴـﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻴﺭﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻓـﻲ ﺤﺎﻟـﺔ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟـﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻔﺘﺤـﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻘـﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺇﻤﺘـﺼﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﻁـﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺤﺭﻜﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺴﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺘـﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﹰﺎ ﻭﻨﻭﻋﹰﺎ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﻴﺭﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻅل‬
‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻴﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ ﻗﺼﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻴﻔﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﻅﻬـﻭﺭ ﺘـﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﺩﻓﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻻ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻟﻡ ﺘﻭﻅﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻨﺘﺠﺔ ‪(Ingves,‬‬

‫)‪.2004‬‬
‫ﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻘﺭﻭﻥ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺒﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺎﺕ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﺜـﺭ ﺴـﻠﺒﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
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‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻟﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﺩﺭﹰﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺯﻭﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌـﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﺒـﺄﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻭﻁ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺘﻘﺩ ﻭﺠﻭﺏ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺃﺭﻴﺩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻔﺎﺩﺓ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻴﺯﺍﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟـﻰ ﺃﻨﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺘﺼﻑ ﺒﺎﻟﻀﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻻ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺎﺕ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺜﺎﺒﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫـﺩﻑ ﺭﻗﻤـﻲ ﻤﺤـﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﻌـﺩل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫)‪(Inflation Targeting‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﻌﺜﺭ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻕ ﻫـﺩﻓﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻨﺎﻗﻀﻴﻥ ﻭﻫﻤﺎ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨل ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺴـﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )‪ (Inflation Targeting‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺜﻴﻘﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺨـﻼل ﻤـﺩﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴـﺔ ﻤﺤـﺩﺩﺓ‬
‫)‪ ،(Debelle,1998‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﹰﺎ ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻔﺎﻅ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‬
‫ﺒﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺭ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺸﺌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ)‪Core-‬‬

‫‪ (inflation‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺅﻭل ﺍﻷﻭل‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﺘﻤﻴﻥ ﻭﻋﻤﻼﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﻭﺠﻬﺎﺘﻪ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺎﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻻﺒﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻠﺘﺯﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﻤﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺴﻡ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺴﻴﺦ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺘﻪ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻤﺘﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﻤﻭﻴـل ﺍﻟﻌﺠـﺯ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻤﻘﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺤﻅﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺤﻴـﺙ ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺤ ‪‬ﺭ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻌﻠﻥ ﺭﺴﻤﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ )ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ( ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻋﻼﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻻﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺇﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﺒﺤﺩ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻋﻼﻥ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺸﺭ ﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﻴﺔ ﺤـﻭل ﺘﻭﻗﻌـﺎﺕ ﻤـﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺎﻭﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )‪.(Coats, 2000‬‬
 ‫‪٢٥‬‬

‫ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻟﺘﺸﻤل ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﻭﺍﺘﺨـﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ ﺃﻭ ﻤﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻔﺎﺀ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ ﻭﻁﺎﺭﺌـﺔ ﻴﺠـﺏ ﺍﺴـﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ‬

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‫ﻻ‬
‫ﻻ ﻭﻤﻘﺒﻭ ﹰ‬
‫)‪ .(Orphanides,2006‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﺘﺩ ﹰ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺼﻐﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻤﺤﺩﺩ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺒﺤﺩ ﺃﻗﺼﻰ ﻭﺃﺩﻨﻰ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﻭﻀﻊ ﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻜﻠﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺇﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻲ ﻭﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫـﺎﺕ ﺘﻁـﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻨﻭﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠـﺏ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‪ .‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻴـﺘﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻥ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺇﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻗل‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻔﻌﻴـل‬
‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺔ)‪.(Coats, 2000‬‬
‫ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﻭﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺜﺎل ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟـﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ :‬ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟـﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ‬
‫)‪ .(Orphanides, 2006‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻴﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺘﺸﺩﺩﺓ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺜﺎﺭ ﺴـﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺩﻋﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻔﻀﻴل ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻜﺒﺩﻴل ﻻﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺨﻠﻕ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺁﻤﻨﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺘﺘﻤﺘـﻊ‬
‫ﻻ ﻟﺘﻠـﻙ‬
‫ﺒﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺘﺸﻐﻴل ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﺠﻌل ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻏﻔـﺎ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ)‪.(Coats, 2000‬‬
 ‫‪٢٦‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺒﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻜﺎﻑ ﺍﻷﻤـﺭ ﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻴﻘﻴﻥ ﻭﻀﻴﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻟﻴـﺴﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺭﻫﻭﻨﺔ ﺒﻨﺠﺎﺤﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ .‬ﻓﻬﻭ ﻤﺴﺅﻭل ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺃﻴـﻀﹰﺎ ﻋـﻥ ﺤﺎﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻭﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴل )ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ(‪.‬‬

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‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺤﺘﻰ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺘﻪ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺠـﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﺘﺨـﺎﺫ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻴﺠﻌل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌـﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻻ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺤﺠﺔ ﻜﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻟﻠـﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴـﺔ ﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﺘﻨﺘﻘﺩ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺇﻥ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺭﻗﻤﻲ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌـﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﻭﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ‪.‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜ ﹶﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺭ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺴـﻴﻁ‬
‫ﻼ ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺘﺤﺭﻴﻙ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻜﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺜ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﹰﺍ ﻗﻭﻴﹰﺎ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻤـﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘـﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ﻜﺄﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫـﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻨـﺼﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺜﺭ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻭل‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﻴﺨﻠﻕ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻴﻘﻴﻥ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭ ﻭﻋﻤﻼﺀ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺒﺸﺄﻥ ﺃﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﻟﻪ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﻪ ﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠـﻕ‬
‫ﺒﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻓﻬﻭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺍﺭﺘﺒﺎﻁﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻭﻗﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺁﺨﺭ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬

‫ﻗﺎﺩ ﻤﻴﻠﺘﻭﻥ ﻓﺭﻴﺩﻤﺎﻥ ) ‪ ( Milton Fredman‬ﺠﻤﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﻤـﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨـﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻋﺒـﺭ ﺍﻟـﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪ .(Walsh,2000‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﺁﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﺴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﻬـﺎ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻓﺭﻴﺩﻤﺎﻥ )‪ (Fredman‬ﻭﺸﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ )‪ (Schwartz‬ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﺌﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺒﹰﺎ ﺤﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻼﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﻌﺘﻤـﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﻜﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺯﺩﻴـﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻪ ﻟﻠﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻴﺔ ) ﻜﺎﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻠـﻴﻡ ﻭﺍﻟـﺼﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻹﺴـﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ( ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻪ ﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻴـﺔ ﻭﻤـﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺠﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ)‪.(Mishkin,2000‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﺍﻷﻓﻜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻨﺯﻴﺔ )‪ ،(New Keynsian Thought‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﻙ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺎﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻌﻼﺝ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻭﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺤﺴﻥ ﺴﻴﺭ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼـﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻴـﺔ ﻭﺘـﺸﺠﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻫـﺩﺍﻓﻬﺎ ﺒﻤـﺎ ﻴﺨـﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻨـﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ :‬ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﻔﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻔـﺎﻅ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ﻭﻤـﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨـﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺃﺤـﺩ ﺃﻫـﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺎﻟﺠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻭﺃﻜﺜﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﺜﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺠﺩل‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﻤـﺩﺍﺭﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺤﺎﻭﻟﺕ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺭﺒﻌﺔ ﺍﺤﺘﻤـﺎﻻﺕ)‪(Romer,1996‬‬
‫ﻫﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻ‪ :‬ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺭﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻘﻼﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﺩﺭﺴـﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻴﻨـﺯﻴﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺩﺜﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺠﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺘﺒﻌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺘﻠﻘﺎﺌﻴﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻤﺩﺍﺭﺱ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺜـل ﺍل ‪Post-‬‬

‫‪.Keynesian‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜﺎ‪ :‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻤﺯﻴﺞ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴـﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟـﺔ ﻤـﺎ ﺒـﻴﻥ‬

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‫ﻻ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﻗﺒﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻼ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻴـﺴﺘﺠﻴﺒﺎﻥ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻭﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻜ ﹰ‬
‫ﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﻜﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺎ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟـ ‪Real Business‬‬

‫‪. Cycle‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩل ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﺭ ﺤﻭل ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎﻙ‬
‫ﺸﺒﻪ ﺇﺠﻤﺎﻉ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﺤﻴﺎﺩﻴﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﻗﺘـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻨـﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )ﺃﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ( ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻨـﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﻀﻌﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻁﺭﻕ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺒﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺼﺭﻑ ﺒﺈﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻕ ﺒﺈﺤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻁـﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺒـــــــﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ :‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺼﻼﺤﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻭ ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﻜﻠﻤﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺘﺤـﺎﻭل ﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻕ ﻫـﺩﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺘﻨﻅﻴﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ )ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ( ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻤﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴـﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜـل ﺃﻫـﻡ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻟﻀﻭﺍﺒﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ )‪ ،(Interest Rate Controls‬ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺤـﺩﻭﺩ ﻋﻠﻴـﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺒﻨﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩﻩ )‪ ،(Bank-by-Bank Credit Ceilings‬ﻭﻨـﺴﺏ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ـﺔ )‪،(Directed Credits‬‬ ‫ـﺔ )‪ ،(Statutory Liquidity Ratios‬ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨـ‬
‫ـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻬـ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻴـ‬
‫ﻭﺤﺼﺹ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ ﻟﻜل ﺒﻨﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩﻩ )‪.(Bank –by- Bank Rediscount Quotas‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﺒﺘﺸﻭﻫﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻻ ﻴﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺠﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
 ‫‪٢٩‬‬

‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺜل‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺨﻔﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ )ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻴﻀﻌﻑ ﺤﺎﻓﺯ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻨﺎﺠﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﻁﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺘﻤل ﺃﻥ ﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺩﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻔﺭ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺩﺨﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻴﺤﺘﻔﻅ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻴﺴﺔ‪،‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ )‪.(Misnkin,2000‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻀﻌﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ )ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ( ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺘﺤﺎﻴل ﺍﻻﺒﺘﻜﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻠﻭﺍﺌﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻅﻴﻤﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻭﻴل‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻨﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺤﻤﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻔﺘﻘﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨـﺼﻡ ﺃﻭ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻘﻭﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﺠﻼﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ :‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻴـﺸﺎﺭ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﺩﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬـﻲ ﺘﻐﻴـﺭ ﻤﻌـﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺎﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﻋﻠــﻰ ﺃﺴــﺎﺱ ﻁــﻭﻋﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜــل ﺃﻫــﻡ ﻫــﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻻﺤﺘﻴــﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻘــﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ‬
‫)‪ ،(Requirement Reserve‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ )‪ ،(Standing Facilities‬ﻭﺘـﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺇﻋـﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ) ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟـﺸﺭﺍﺀ( ))‪ ،(Refinancing Facilities (SFc‬ﻭﺘـﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻹﻴـﺩﺍﻉ )ﻨﺎﻓـﺫﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ( )‪ ،(Deposit Facilities‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤـﺔ ) ‪Open Market‬‬

‫‪.(Operations‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻤﺘﺎﺯ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﺎﺌل ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻀﺒﻁ ﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻻ ﺘﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺎﻴل‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻤل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﻻ ﺒﺎﻻﻟﺘﻔﺎﻑ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺸﺠﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺠﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﻗﺩﺭﹰﺍ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺼﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻤﺘﻜﺭﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻴﻀﺎﻑ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺘـﻭﻓﺭ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺇﺸﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻌﺭﻴﻪ ﺘﻔﻴﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻗـﻭﻯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﺭ ﺼﻴﺎﻏﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻭﺠـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺤـﺴﻥ ﻨﻭﻋﻴـﺔ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﺩﺨـﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ)‪.(Misnkin,2000‬‬
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‫‪:Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism‬‬ ‫ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ )ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ( ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﺼﻁﻠﺢ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻺﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻭﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻻ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺎﻤل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﻴﺩ ﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺸﺭﻁﹰﺎ ﻤﺴﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻤﻬﻤﹰﺎ ﻟﺘﻨﻔﻴﺫ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ﺴـﻠﻴﻤﺔ ﺇﺫ‬
‫ﻴﺴﻤﺢ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺭﺃﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻁﺎﻕ ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻔﺎﻅ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ )‪.( Mishkin, 1995‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻨﻘﺴﻡ ﻤﺭﺍﺤل ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺘﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ )‪(Money Market‬‬
‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (Financial Market‬ﻓﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺘﻭﻗﻴـﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻗﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻬﻤﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺘﻭﻗﻴﺕ ﻭﺤﺠﻡ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸـﺭﺓ ﻻﻨﺘﻘـﺎل ﺁﺜـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻭﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻤﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﺸﻬﺩﻩ ﺃﻨﻤﺎﻁ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺁﺜـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺴﺴﻲ )ﺃﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ( ﻴﻌﺩ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺼﻌﻭﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺍﺠﻬﻬﺎ ﻁﺭﻕ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻋﻤل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻻ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺒﻤﻌﺯل ﻋﻥ ﻜل ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻘـﺼﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﻌﺩﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺒﺨﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜـﻥ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺤﻤل ﻋﺏﺀ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻴﻀﺎﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘـﺯﺍﻤﻥ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟـﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴـﻀﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﻴﺤﺠﺏ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻟﺭﺅﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻭﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺘﺴﻠﺴل ﺍﻷﺴﺒﺎﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻓـﻲ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻜﺄﺩﺍﺓ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻘﺒﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ...‬ﺍﻟﺦ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻭﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻴـﺕ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﻴﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠـﻊ ﺩﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻭﻜﻼﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻴﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺸﺭﻓﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻋﻨـﺩ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻭﺤﺠﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﺁﺨﺫﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻌﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺃﺜﺭﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻓﻘـﻁ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺒل ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻵﻨﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﺫﻜﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﺘﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻭﻟﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟـﺫﻱ ﺘﺅﺩﻴـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻋﺩﺩﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺘﺄﺜﺭﹰﺍ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻜﺒﻴـﺭﹰﺍ‬
‫ﺒﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓـﻲ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻜﺄﺩﺍﺓ ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﹰﺎ‪.‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻋﻡ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻜﻴﻔﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒل ﻭﺃﻭﻀـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﺅﺩﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻙ ﻓﻴﻪ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺼـﻌﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺠﻤﻪ ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻴﺘﻪ ﻴﺴﻬﻡ ﺇﺴﻬﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺭﺘﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻗﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‬

‫ﻟﻘﺩ ﺘﻁﺭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻁﺭﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻘـل‬
‫ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻨﺘﻁﺭﻕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ﻷﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ )‪:(Mishkin,1995‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ )‪ :(Interest Rate Channel‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴـﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠـﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ )‪ ، (Al-Mashat,2007‬ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻨـﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ‬
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‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺭﺠﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺒـﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺠﻴل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﺜﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﺒﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻁـﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ )‪.(Kuttner,2002‬‬

‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺍﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﻏﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺭﻏﻭﺒﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻤﻨﻊ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺫﺍﺘﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ )‪ :(Wealth Channel‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠـﻲ ﻤـﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﻷﺼـﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬
‫)ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ( ﻭﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺘﻠﻜﺎﺕ( ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﻤل ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓـﻊ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ ﺜـﺭﻭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ )ﺸﺭﻴﻁﺔ ﺍﻤﺘﻼﻙ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﻓﻲ ﺤﻭﺍﻓﻅﻬﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘـﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻴل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺼﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩ ﺤﻭل ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل )‪ :(Income effects‬ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘـﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﺼﺩﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﺎﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻨﻭﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻴﺩﻓﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻨﻭﻥ‪ .‬ﻓﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻨﻤﻁﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﻤﻴـﺯ ﺒﻭﺠـﻭﺩ ﺃﺴـﺭ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻀﻊ ﺩﺍﺌﻥ ﺼﺎﻑ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻫﻭ ﻭﻀﻊ ﻤﺩﻴﻥ ﺼـﺎﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻟﻸﺴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺨﻔـﺽ‬
‫ﺃﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻭﺘﺭﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺫﻜﻭﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺠﻡ ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻭﻜﻼﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺠﺂل ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺃﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﻤﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠـل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻷﺴﺭ ﻻ ﻴـﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﻴﻤﻴﻠﻭﻥ ﻟﻺﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‬
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‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺼﺤﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻭ ﻴﺤﺩﺙ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺠـﺢ ﻋﻨـﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺽ ﻤﻌﺭﻀﹰﺎ ﻟﻘﻴﻭﺩ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻜﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻟﻡ ﺘﻘﺎﺒﻠﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺨﻠﻕ ﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ .٤‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ) ‪ :(Exchange Rate Channel‬ﻴﻭﻓﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻫﺎﻤﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺡ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﻤـﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ )ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ = ﻋﺩﺩ ﻭﺤﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤـﺔ ﻟـﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ(‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨـﺴﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ )‪.(Al-Mashat, 2007‬‬

‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺤﺏ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺨـﺭﻭﺝ‬
‫ﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘـﺭﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺘﻌﺩل ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﺒﻁﺀ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٥‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ )‪ :(Credit Channel‬ﺇﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺘـﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺘـﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ)‪(Al-Mashat, 2007‬‬

‫‪ .٦‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴﺔ )ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴـﻌﺔ( ‪Balance Sheet Channel (Broad‬‬

‫)‪ : Credit Channel‬ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﻗﻴﻡ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻬﻤﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘل ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﺒﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺘﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻴ‪‬ﺤـﺴﻥ‬
‫ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺭﻭﺓ ﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺸﺩﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﺎﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒـﻊ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫"ﺸﺭﻭﻁ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ " ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻓﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻘﺩﻡ " ﻀـﻤﺎﻥ ‪ " Collateral‬ﺃﻋﻠـﻰ ﻤﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﻤﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴـﺸﺠﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ)‪. (Al-Mashat, 2007‬‬
 ‫‪٣٤‬‬

‫‪ .٧‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻹﻗـﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻓﻲ )ﻗﻨـﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤـﺎﻥ ﺍﻟـﻀﻴﻘﺔ( ) ‪Bank Lending Channel‬‬

‫)‪ :((Narrow Credit Channel‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺭﺍﺭ ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﺎﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫" ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ"‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺩﻭﺭ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ " ﻜﻭﺴﻴﻁ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻟﻲ"‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ ﺃﻓﻀل ﻤﻥ ﻏﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻜﺘﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺩﻕ‬

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‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺨﺒﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﺍﺼل ﻤﻊ ﻋﻤﻼﺌﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﺨﻔـﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺸﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺘﺠﺒﺭ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻭﻴل‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻋﻼﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺨـﺎﺭﺠﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻬﺅﻻﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ )‪.(Poddar, 2006‬‬

‫‪ .٨‬ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺒﻴﻥ )‪ :(Tobin's q Theory‬ﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺠﻴﻤﺱ ﺘﻭﺒﻴﻥ "‪ "J.Tobin‬ﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻴﺭﺒﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺴﻤﻴﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ‪"Tobin's‬‬

‫"‪ .(Poddar, 2006)q Theory‬ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺘﻭﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ‪ q‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻗﻴﺔ ﻟﻠـﺸﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺴﻭﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﺩﺍل ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ‬
‫ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻗﺘﻨﺎﺀ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﺭﻓﻊ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﻨﺎﺀ ﺁﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺠﺩﻴـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺸﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻬﺎ ﺒﻁﺭﺡ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴـﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭ )‪ (q‬ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .٩‬ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻨﻘل ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ :‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﺎﺓ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﻘل ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺁﺜﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘـﺩﻓﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺴـﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴـﻤﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻷﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ ﺘـﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ)‪. (Al-Mashat, 2007‬‬

‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﻨﻘل ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﻏﻴـﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌـﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫‪.١٠‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﻌﻤل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤـﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ)‪. (Al-Mashat, 2007‬‬
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‫ﻗﻨﺎﺓ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ )ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬ ‫‪.١١‬‬
‫ﺍﻷﻨﻔﺎﻕ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺒﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻨﻘل ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤـﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺍﻹﻨﻔـﺎﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ ﻭﻤﺤﻔﻅﺘﻪ ﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻗﻠﻨﺎ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺤﻔﻅﺔ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤـﺭﺓ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ‬
‫ﻴﺸﻌﺭ ﺒﺎﻻﻁﻤﺌﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻤـﺭﺓ ﻴـﺅﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺘﺤﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺴﻌﺭﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﻭﻗﻑ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺠﻤـﻭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻤـﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻨﻭﻟﻭﺠﻴـﺎ ﻭﺭﺼـﻴﺩ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤـﺎل‬
‫ﻭﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﺨﺘﻨﺎﻗﺎﺕ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ ﺘﺯﻴـﺩ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻘﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪) :‬ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل‪ ،‬ﻭﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ(‪ .‬ﻜﻤـﺎ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﻴﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﻤﻁﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﺍﻟـﺫﻱ ﻴـﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻌﺯﻴـﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺘﻤﺨـﺽ ﻋﻨـﻪ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻁﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﻴﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺤﺩﺙ ﻨﻅﻤﹰﺎ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺨﺼﺎﺌﺹ ﻭﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺄﻥ‪ ،‬ﺘﹸﻌﺭ‪‬ﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺍﻻﺴـﻤﻴﺔ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎﺭﺓ ) ‪ ) (nominal anchor‬ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺒﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ(‪ ،‬ﻭﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻤﻴﺯ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﻨﻅﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻔﺘﻘﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫‪ .٢‬ﻨﻅﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻀﻌﻴﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﻨﻅﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٤‬ﻨﻅﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﺒﻁ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٥‬ﻨﻅﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٦‬ﻨﻅﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻜﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﻀﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٧‬ﻨﻅﻡ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻤﺨﻔﻔﺔ ﻻﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﺭﺼﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻑ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻋﺎ ﻤﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﺔ ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟـﻨﻅﻡ ﺘﺘـﺭﺍﻭﺡ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻟﺘـﺯﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺘـﺎﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻭﺍﻋـﺩ‬
‫)‪ (By Rule Policy‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺴﺎﺒﻴﺔ )‪ . (Discretionary Policy‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤـﻅ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺃﻨﺤﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﺘﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﻨﻅﻤﹰﺎ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﻤﺢ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻗـل ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨـﺴﺎﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﺠﻠـﻰ ﻫـﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﺴـﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﺒـﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸـﺭ‬
‫)‪ .(Inflation Targting‬ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﺴﻤﻲ ﻤﻌﻠﻥ ﻴﻤﺜل ﻫﺩﻑ ﻟﻠـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻜﻤﺎﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺒﻠﺩ ﻤﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٤‬ﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫‪.٥‬‬

‫‪ .٦‬ﺍﻟﺭﻜﻴﺯﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻭﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﻓﻴﻬﺎ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴـﺔ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪.(Khan and others , 2002 ) (١‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺼﻨﻑ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ )‪ (Operating Targets‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻴﻬـﺎ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺭﺒﻁ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬

‫א‬ ‫אא א‬

‫א‬ ‫א א א‬

‫א א‬ ‫א‬

‫א א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א‬

‫א א‬ ‫א‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪.١‬ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ )‪ ،(Intermediate Target‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻊ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﺭﺒﻁﻬﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )‪ (Final Targets‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻔﺯ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺸﻴﺭﻴﺔ ) ‪Indicator‬‬

‫‪ (Variables‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻴﺎﺩﻴﺔ )‪ (leading indicators‬ﻓﻬﻲ ﺘﻠـﻙ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﺘﺒﻌـﺙ ﺒﺈﺸـﺎﺭﺍﺕ‬

‫)‪ (Signals‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺼﺎﻨﻌﻲ ﻭﻤﺘﺨﺫﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺸﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ )‪.(Madigan, 1994‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ )‪ (Operational Target‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻏﻠﺏ ﻭﺃﻓﻀل ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻌـﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺠﺩﹰﺍ ﻭﻴﻠﺨﺹ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١‬ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻔﺼﻴل‪:‬‬
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‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪.١‬ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘـﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﺘﺘـﺄﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺤﺕ ﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻬﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺒﺎﻷﻫــﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘــﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸـﺭﺓ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ ﻭﺘﺭﺒﻁﻬﺎ ﻋﻼﻗـﺔ ﻗﻭﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻐﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل‪:‬‬ ‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺄﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻤﺜل‪:‬‬ ‫ﻤﺜل‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻨــﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴــﺎﻁﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل‪.‬‬
‫ـﺔ‬
‫ـﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠـ‬
‫ـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـ‬
‫ﺃﺴـ‬ ‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻭﻤﻴـﺔ ﺍﻵﺠل‪.‬‬ ‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴــﺎﺕ ﺍﻟــﺴﻭﻕ‬

‫ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ )ﺃﻭ ﻤﻔـﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻤﻲ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗـﻊ )ﻓـﻲ‬ ‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟــــﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺇﺴــﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﺴــﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ(‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺃﻭﺯﺍﻨﺎ ﺘﺭﺠﻴﺤﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺴﺎﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻜﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﺒﺎﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻤـﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺫﻫﺏ ﺇﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﻤـﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺜل ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻼ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﻋﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻓﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻑ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻗﺭﻴﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻻ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻓﺎ ﻋﺎﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺩ ﺫﺍﺘﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺫﺘﻬﺎ ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺠﻤﻴـﻊ ﺍﻻﺤـﻭﺍل‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﺤﺭﺍﺯ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﺴﺱ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫• ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻗﺎﺒ ﹰ‬

‫ﻼ ﻟﻠﻘﻴﺎﺱ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٣٩‬‬

‫• ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺨﺎﻀﻌﹰﺎ ﻟﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪.‬‬

‫• ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻗﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﺒﺩﻗﺔ ﺃﻤﺭﹰﺍ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻻﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺏ ﺭﻗﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻹﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ ﺍﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺨﺭﻭﺠﻪ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺍﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴـﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﺒـﻭﺀ‬
‫ﺒﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺩﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺒﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺘﺤﺭﻴـﻙ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻴﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﻜﹰﺎ ﺃﺴﺭﻉ ﻭﺃﺩﻕ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻟﻭ ﺭﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ ‪) Corridor System‬ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻜﺄﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ(‬
‫ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻵﺠل ﻀﻤﻥ ﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻕ ﺃﻫـﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺎﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴـﻭﻓﺭ ﻋﻤـﻕ ﺍﻜﺒـﺭ‬
‫ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺌﻤـﺔ )ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫‪ (SFC،SFD‬ﺃﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔ )‪(Repo and Reverse Repo‬‬
‫ﻜﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻤﺜل ﻜﻨﺩﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺭﻴﻁﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺤﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻴﻠـﺔ ﻭﺍﺤـﺩﺓ ) ‪Target fot the Overnight‬‬

‫‪ ،(Rate‬ﻭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﻴﺩﻴﺭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ ،(Target for the Federal Funds Rate‬ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ )‪ ،(Two- week "repo rate‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﺩﻨﻰ ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴـل ) ‪Minimum‬‬

‫)‪ ،(rate for refinancing operations (repo rate‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﺃﺭﺼﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻭﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺜﺎﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻴﺔ ﻓـﻲ "ﻨﻅـﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ" )ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﻀﻤﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺤـﺩ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺃﻭﻀﺢ ﻷﻁـﺭﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻟﺘﻭﺠﻬﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺘﺴﺎﻋﺩ ﻓـﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻕ‬
‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ‬

‫ﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ ﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬

‫ﻴﻌﺘﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻨﻤﻁﹰﺎ ﻤﺜﺎﻟﻴﹰﺎ ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺼﻐﻴﺭ ﻭﻤﻔﺘﻭﺡ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺠﻠﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺜﺭﻩ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻠﻘﺎﻫﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺴﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻩ ﺒﻘﻠﺔ ﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩﻩ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺭﻜﺯ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %٧٠‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓـﻲ ﻗﻁـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨـﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﺼﻨﻴﻊ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻔﻭﺴﻔﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻭﺘﺎﺱ ﻭﺘﻜﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺇﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﻔﻴﻔﺔ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺴﻭﺠﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻼﺒﺱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻜﺘﺴﺒﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﻭﻨﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻨﻔﺘﺎﺡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻤﺯﻤﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﺠـﺯ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻠﻘﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﻭﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟـﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻭﺍﺠﻪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺃﻋﺒﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪) ١٩٨٩‬ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻤﺭﺒﻭﻁ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟـ ‪ SDR‬ﻤﻨـﺫ ﻋـﺎﻡ ‪(١٩٧٣‬‬
‫ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %٢١‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﻬﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻜﺒﻴـﺭﺓ ﻓـﻲ ﻋـﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ ١٩٨٩‬ﻭﺍﻨﺩﻻﻉ ﺤﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﻠﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٩١-١٩٩٠‬ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺄﻜل ﺍﻟﺜﻘـﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻨﻜﻤﺵ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ‪ %١٣‬ﺒﺎﻷﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٨٩‬ﻭﺨﺴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ‪ %١٠‬ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٩٠‬ﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺃﺼـﺒﺢ ﻤـﻥ ﺃﻜﺜـﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩﺍﻥ ﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺒﻠﻐﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ %١٩٠‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﺩﺨل ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻔﺎﻭﻀﺎﺕ ﻹﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﻟﺘﺯﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺜﻨﺎﺌﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺃﻨﺠﺯﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻤﻲ ‪ ١٩٩٣‬ﻭ ‪.١٩٩٤‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺸﻬﺩﺕ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﻊ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻗـﺎﺩﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻋﺏﺀ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻑ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺸﺭ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٤١‬‬

‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺇﺒﻘﺎﺌﻪ ﻀـﻤﻥ ﻨﻁـﺎﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺡ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﺘﺸﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٩٥‬ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﺭﺒﻭﻁ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﺒﻠﻎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %٤‬ﺒـﻴﻥ ﻋـﺎﻤﻲ ‪ ١٩٩٣‬ﻭ ‪١٩٩٩‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻭﺴﺭﻋﺎﻥ ﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ‪ %١‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٩١‬ﻭﺒﻠﻎ ‪ %٣‬ﺒﻌـﺩ ﺫﻟـﻙ‪ .‬ﻭﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺘﻭﺍﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻤﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﻭﻴل ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺎﺼﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﺭﺓ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﻋـﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٩٨‬ﻭﺃﻭﺍﺌـل ﻋـﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ ،١٩٩٩‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﻐﻔﻭﺭ ﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﻙ ﺤﺴﻴﻥ ﻭﻭﻓﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺒﺎﻟﻤـﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﻠﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻋﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺯﺍﻑ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴـﺔ ﻟـﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺤﺩﺍ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺩﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺒﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠـل ﺍﺴـﺘﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺜﻘـﺔ ﺒﺎﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻟﺘﺠﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﺍﻉ ﺍﻹﺴﺭﺍﺌﻴﻠﻲ‪-‬ﺍﻟﻔﻠﺴﻁﻴﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋـﺎﻡ ‪ 2001‬ﺘـﺴﺎﺭﻉ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ .%٤,٢‬ﻭﺠﺎﺀ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﺎﺭﻉ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﹰﺎ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺨـﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻨﻀﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻨﻅﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ )‪ (WTO‬ﻓﻲ ﻋـﺎﻡ‬
‫‪ ٢٠٠٠‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻭﺼل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ %١٠،١‬ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻭﺴﻁ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪.٢٠٠٦-٢٠٠٢‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺘﻅﻤﺔ ﻋﻤﻤﻭﻤﹰﺎ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫـﻭ‬
‫ﻤﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ)‪ (٢‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻁﻐﺕ ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨـﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺒﻘﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺘﻤﺜﻠﺕ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻔﺎﻭﺘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ‪ .‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﻅﻡ ﻟﻠﺭﻭﺍﺝ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﺴﺎﺩ‬
‫ﻟﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻤﻴﻴﺯﻩ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺩﺩ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﻀﻭﺡ ﻤﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘـﺎﺭﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٤٢‬‬

‫‪30.00‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬
‫‪25.00‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬
‫‪20.00‬‬
‫‪0.60‬‬
‫‪15.00‬‬
‫‪0.50‬‬
‫‪10.00‬‬
‫‪5.00‬‬
‫‪0.40‬‬
‫‪0.30‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪-5.00‬‬
‫‪1980‬‬ ‫‪1983‬‬ ‫‪1986‬‬ ‫‪1989‬‬ ‫‪1992‬‬ ‫‪1995‬‬ ‫‪1998‬‬ ‫‪2001‬‬ ‫‪2004‬‬ ‫‪2007‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬
‫‪-10.00‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫‪-15.00‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺼﺮف‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ‪ .٢‬ﺃﺩﺍﺀ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪٢٠٠٧-١٩٨٠‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ)‪ ،(٢‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻘﺴﻴﻡ ﻤﺴﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺘﻴﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﺘﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻭﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﺎ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﻤﺘﺩﺕ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪،١٩٨٩‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻬﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺴـﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺤﻠـﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟـﻰ ﻓﻜـﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﺘﺴﻤﺕ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻤﻌﺎﻟﻤﻪ ﺒﻬﻴﻤﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﹰﺎ ﻭﺴﻌﺭﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺩﻨﻲ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﺭﺴﺎﺀ‬
‫ﻗﻭﺍﻋﺩ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻤل ﻷﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺘﺤـﺴﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺭﺍﻓﻘﺘﻪ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺜﻠﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻌـﺭﺽ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﻴﺸﺘﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﺇ ﹼ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٨٨‬ﻭ ﻤﻁﻠـﻊ ﻋـﺎﻡ ‪ .١٩٨٩‬ﻓﺎﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﻋﺠـﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻔﺎﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻭﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﻴﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠـﻡ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﻠﺤـﻭﻅ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﺴﻬﻡ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﻤﺜـل ﻟﻠﻤـﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺁﻨﺫﺍﻙ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﻨـﻀﻭﺏ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻨﺠﻡ ﻋﻨﻪ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻭﻗﻭﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻟﻡ ﻴﻜﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻤﻨـﺄﻯ ﻋـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻤﺭ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﻭﺇﻓﺭﺍﺯﺍﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﺸﻤﻭﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﺼـﻭل ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺴﻭﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺡ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٨٩‬ﺒﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎﻭﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﻭﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺇﺼﻼﺡ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻫﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﺸﺎﻤل ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
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‫ﻴﺭﺘﻜﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻜﻤﺤﺭﻙ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻟﻠﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺤﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺩﻋﻭﻤﹰﺎ ﺒﺤﺯﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﺍﻨﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻔﻴﻠﺔ ﺒﺘﺴﻴﻴﺭ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﻋﻤل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻭﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺌﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺸﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺘﺭﺽ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬
‫ﺘﹸﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻁﺒﻘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺤﺯﻤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻬﺫﻩ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻜﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻕ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﻐﺎﻴـﺔ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺭﺍﺀ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻫﻭ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﻓﺎﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻴﺴﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻜﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﺤﺩﻴﺙ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺴﺒﻘﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﺼﻔﺕ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴـﺔ ﻋﻘـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻉ ﺒﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻓﻜﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺭﺍﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﺘﺴﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﻭﺘﻤﻭﻴـل‬
‫ﻗﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺘﻔﻀﻴﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺠـﺴﻴﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺘـﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺴﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺠﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺃﺴﻬﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻫـﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﻪ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻏﺭﺍﺭ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤـﻥ ﺩﻭل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﻜﻬـﺩﻑ ﺃﺴـﺎﺱ ﻭﻭﺤﻴـﺩ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺍﻨﺩﻻﻉ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﹰﺎ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﹰﺎ ﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻗﺎﺩﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴـﻑ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟـﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻭﻗﺎﺒﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻴﻤﻭﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺩﻱ ﺍﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺒﻐﻴﺔ ﺍﺤﺘﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻴﺘﻤﺎﺸﻰ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‬
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‫ﻭﻴﻨﺴﺠﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺴﻴﺴﻬﻡ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﺘﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ ﻤﺤﻠﻴﹰﺎ ﻭ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﹰﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺒﺄﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀـﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﺘﻭﺍﻓﺭ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻨﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻘـﺩﻤﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﺴـﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺘﻪ ﻭﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺘﻪ ﻭﻭﻀﻭﺤﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺴﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤـل ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺤﺭ ﻴﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺴﻠﻴﻡ ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻓﻰ‪ ،‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺎﻨﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻓﻌﺎل‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﺤﻭﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺭﺴﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴـﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤـﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻡ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﺒﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺩﻱ ﻴﻌﺘﺒـﺭ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺜﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻜﺯ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺤﻔﺯ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﺫﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﻜﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻌﺘﺒـﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻟﻌﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺃﺜﺒﺘﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗـﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﻲ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﺠﻬﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﻤﺎ ﻻ ﺤﺼﺭ ﻟﺘﻌﺩﺍﺩﻩ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺩل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻠﻭﻍ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻻ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻬﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﻡ ﺒﻤﻌﺯل ﻋﻥ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺭﺸﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺤﻔﺯﺓ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻤﺸﺠﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺠﺎﺫﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺤﺩ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﻘﺒﺕ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨـﺭ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،١٩٨٨‬ﺍﺘﺨﺫﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺴﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺸـﻤﻠﺕ‬
‫ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻴﺎﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺸﺭﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻨﺫ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺤﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺭﻜﺯﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺠﻬﻭﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ ﺸﺭﻁﹰﺎ ﻀﺭﻭﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻹﺭﺴـﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻭﻤـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺴـﺨﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺩﺍﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻨﺘﻘﻠﺕ ﺠﻬﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤـﺔ ﺍﻹﺼـﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﺸﺭﻴﻌﻴﺔ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻀﻴﺔ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺤﻔﻴﺯ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨـﺎﺹ ﻟﻠﻤـﺸﺎﺭﻜﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻤل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺒﻨﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎل‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴـﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻘﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻹﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺩﺍﺒﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺘﺴﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﻤﻠﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺤﺭﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﻭﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻤﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻔﺎﻓﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻤﻨﺫ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﻨﺎﺕ ﻴﺘﻤﺜـل‬
‫ﺒﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺡ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻨﺤﻭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺘﻴـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻀﻤﻥ ﻨﺠﺎﺡ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻬﻴﺊ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺃﻓﻀل‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟـﺩﻭﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﻠﻌﺒﺔ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬

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‫ﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻼﺌﻡ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻨﻭﺡ ﻟﻠﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬

‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬

‫ﻓﻘﺩ ﻤﺭﺕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺤل‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺭﺒﻁ ﺍﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﺒﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻔﺭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺘﻌﻭﻴﻤﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻲ ﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﻟﻴﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺘﻌﺎﺩل ﺠﻨﻴـﻪ‬
‫ﺇﺴﺘﺭﻟﻴﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻟﻜل ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ .١٩٩٧‬ﻟﻴﺘﺤﻭل ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،١٩٦٧‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻜﺎﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﻟﻴﻨﻲ ﻭﺒﻨﻔﺱ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﺩل ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺴﺎﺌﺩﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻗﺒل ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﺎﻟﻎ ‪ ٢,٨‬ﺩﻭﻻﺭﹰﺍ ﻟﻜل ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،١٩٧٥‬ﺘﻡ ﻓـﻙ ﺍﺭﺘﺒـﺎﻁ ﺍﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻭﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺴﻠﺔ ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻭﺒﺴﻌﺭ ﺘﻌﺎﺩل ﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫‪ 2.578‬ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺴﺤﺏ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻟﻜل ﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻭﺒﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ‪ .%٢,٢٥‬ﻟﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٨٦‬ﺭﺒﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺒﺴﻠﺔ ﻋﻤﻼﺕ ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻡ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﺩﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﻤﺎﻨﻴﻨﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻀﻐﻭﻁﺎﺕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻭﺨﻠﻕ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﻭﺍ ٍﺯ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤـﻀﺎﺭﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴـﻌﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺴـﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﺍﻓﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺨﺭ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،١٩٨٨‬ﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺘﻌﻭﻴﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻨﺠﻡ ﻋـﻥ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٨٨‬ﻭﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻤﻥ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٨٩‬ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺴﻌـﺭ‬
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‫ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﻠﻎ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ %٥٠‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﹰﺎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺍﹰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻷﻤﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﺒﺩﺍﻴـﺔ ﺸـﺒﺎﻁ‬
‫‪ ١٩٨٩‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻭﺴﻁﻲ ﺒﻠﻎ ‪ ٥٤٠‬ﻓﻠﺴﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒـﺩﺃ ﻭﺍﻀـﺤﹰﺎ ﺃﻥ‬

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‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﺸﺄﻨﻬﺎ ﺸﺄﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻭﻴﻡ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺜﺒﺕ ﺠﺩﻭﺍﻫﺎ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻗﺭ‪‬ﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺸﻬﺭ ﺃﻴﺎﺭ ‪ ١٩٨٩‬ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺝ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺒـﺭﺒﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺒﺴﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺸﻜﹼل ﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﺤﻘﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺇﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﻜل ﻋﻤﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﻭﺯﻨﹰﺎ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴـﺔ ﻟـﻸﺭﺩﻥ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟﻌـﺎﻟﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﺍﻟﻔﺠﻭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻤﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﻭﺯ ‪ ١٩٨٩‬ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺒﺎﺌﻌﹰﺎ ﻭﻤﺸﺘﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻤﻜﹼﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻭﺤﻴﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ‪ ١٩٩٠\٢\١٧‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻨـﺩ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﻭﺴﻁﻲ ‪ ٦٧٢‬ﻓﻠﺴﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﻴﺭﻜﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺘﺎﺭﻴﺦ ‪ ،١٩٩٥/١٠/٢٣‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤـﻥ ﺒﻨـﺎﺀ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻼﺌﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻨﺠﺎﺯ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻗﺭ‪‬ﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺭﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻭﺴﻁﻲ ‪٧٠٩‬‬
‫ﻓﻠﺴﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﺃﻤ‪‬ﺎ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻭﻓﻘﹰﺎ ﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺼـﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ )ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﻌﻤﻘﹸﺎ ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘـﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌـﺎل ) ‪Real‬‬

‫‪ (Effective Exchange Rate‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻜـﺱ‬
‫ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﺭﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨل ﻭﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻴﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘـﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌـﺎل‬
‫ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻠﺩ ﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻜﺎﺀ‪ .‬ﻭﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟـﺸﻜل ﺭﻗـﻡ‬
‫)‪ ،(٣‬ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟـﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺸﻬﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪ ١٩٧٢‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪١٩٨٨‬‬
‫ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﹶﺍ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺠﺯﺀ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻤـﺔ ﺤﻴـﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻘﻴﻤﹰﺎ ﺒﺄﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ ﻭﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ‬
‫ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻡ ﻴﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﺇﻻ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺭﺤﻠﺔ ﻤﺘﺄﺨﺭﺓ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻤﻊ ﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ١٩٨٨‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﺒﺒﻴﻊ ﻭﺸـﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬

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‫ﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﺤﺩﻭﺩﹰﺍ ﻨﻅﺭﹰﺍ ﻟﻌﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﺇ ﹼ‬
‫ﻜﻔﺎﻴﺔ ﺍﻹﺼﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﻴﺔ ﻹﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻭﻱ ﻟﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﺍﻕ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫א‬
‫א‬
‫א‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪(Sedik,2006):‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٣‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﺒـﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤـﻥ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﻴل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜـﺭ‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻌﺎﻭﺩ ﺍﻟ ﹸﺘﺤﺫﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘـﺼﻴﺏ ﺴـﻌﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﻭﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺕ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﺭ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺒﻴﻌـﻲ ﺭﺒـﻁ ﺍﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻟـﺩﻭﻻﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻟﻴﺨﻠﻕ ﻗﺩﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﻭﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺠﺯ ﻤﻭﺯﺍﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻠﺠـﻭﺀ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﺎﺠﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺠﺎﺫﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴـﺔ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ ﻋﻤﻼﺕ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨـﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺁﺨﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﺴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‬
‫ﺘﻘﻭﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ ﻟﻼﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺤﺭ ﻜﺨﻁﻭﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻥ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻗﺩ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﺎﺠﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻴﻌﺎﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺠﻤﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ )ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻋﺠﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ( ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻨﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻟﻅـﺭﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﺍﻫﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻟﺠﺫﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺈﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻥ ﻗﺎﺒل ﻟﻠﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ )ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﺴـﻤﻴﺔ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ( ﻓﺈﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻭﺓ ﺍﻹﻀـﺎﻓﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ )‪ (Risk Premium‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻋـﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜـﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﻲ‬
‫ﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺼﻌﻭﺒﺔ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‬

‫ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺩﺭﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻭﻅﻴﻑ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺒل ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺸﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﺘـﻡ ﺘﻭﻅﻴـﻑ‬
‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺇﺩﺍﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﻁﺭﻕ ﻻ ﺘﺴﺘﻨﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗـﻭﻯ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺴﺎﺩﺕ ﺃﺠﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻓﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻷﺤﻴﺎﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ %١٦‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺨﺼﺔ ﻭﺇﻟـﻰ ‪%٣٥‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻔﻌﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﺸﻜﹼل ﻋﺒﺌﹰﺎ ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅﹰﺎ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻡ ﺘﻜﻥ ﺘﺘﻘﺎﻀﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻓﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘـﺩﻓﻊ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻌﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻷﺠل‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺴﺎﺩﺕ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﻓﺭﺽ ﺴﻘﻭﻑ ﺍﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺨـﺩﻡ ﺒـﺭﺍﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻤﻭﺤﺔ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺭﺍﻓﻘﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻭﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﻋﺠﻭﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺤﻔﻴﺯ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺒﺸﻘﻴﻪ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻬﻼﻜﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﺩﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﺎﺭﺴـﺎﺕ‬
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‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﻅﻬﻭﺭ ﺘﺸﻭﻫﺎﺕ ﺴﻌﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻗﻠﺼﺕ ﻤﻥ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ ﺘﺨـﺼﻴﺹ ﺍﻟﻤـﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻ ﺠﺫﺭﻴﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻨـﺫ‬
‫ﻭﺠﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺠﺩﻴﺩ ﻭﺘﺤﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،١٩٩٠‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﻭﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻡ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻊ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋـﺎﻡ ‪ ،١٩٩٣‬ﺘـﻡ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺴﻠﻭﺏ ﺍﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴـﺙ ﺍﺴـﺘﺤﺩﺙ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‬
‫ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻜﺄﺩﺍﺓ ﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻟﻴﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤـﺔ ﻻﻤﺘـﺼﺎﺹ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻴﺭ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ﺃﻥ ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﻴـﺘﻡ ﻭﻓﻘـﹰﺎ ﻷﺴـﻠﻭﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺯﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻭﺍﻜﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺃﺩﺍﺓ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻷﺠل ﺃﺴﺒﻭﻉ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ‪،‬‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻨﻭﻨﻲ ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ٢٠٠٢‬ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ .%٨‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻜﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻥ ﺒﻬﺎ ﻴﻌﺩ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﹰﺍ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴـﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ)ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﻴﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﺩﻴﺜﹰﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،٢٠٠٧‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻘـﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺒـ )‪ .(Interest Rate Corridor System‬ﻭﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﻬﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ ﺒﺘﺤﻘﻴـﻕ‬
‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻭﺠﻴﻪ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻤﺩﺓ ﻟﻴﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ )‪ .(Interbank Rate‬ﻭﻴﺘﺄﻟﻑ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻌﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤﻼﺕ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻤـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻟﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺤﺩﻫﻤﺎ ﻟﻺﻴﺩﺍﻉ )‪ (Overnight Deposit Rate‬ﻭﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻨﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺇﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟـﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫)‪ .(Overnight repoe Rate‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺒﺈﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻓﻭﺍﺌﻀﻬﺎ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻨـﺩ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻟﺘﻐﻁﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺠﻭﺯﺍﺘﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻤﺜل ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺤـﺩ ﺍﻷﺩﻨـﻰ )‪(Floor‬‬
‫ﻟﻠـﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﻗﺼﻰ )‪ (Ceiling‬ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺘﻤﺜل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ) ‪Monetary Policy‬‬

‫‪ (Rate‬ﺃﻱ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻷﻏﺭﺍﺽ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ‬
‫ﻓﻭﺍﺌﺽ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﺒﺎﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺸـﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ‪.‬‬

‫ﻼ ﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻟﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ ﺘﻔﺼﻴ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪:‬‬
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‫‪ .١‬ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ‪ :‬ﻭﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻗﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻨـﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴـﺎﻁﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺤﺘﻴـﺎﻁﻲ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺩﺍﻩ ﺃﻨﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﻻ ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺃﺩﺍﻩ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻀﺦ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﺒﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓـﺈﻥ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻟﺨﻔﺽ ﻭﺤل ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻗـل‬
‫ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ ﻭ ﻤﺭﻨﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ ) ‪ :( Discount Rate‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻋﺒﺎﺭﺓ ﻋﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﻘﺘﺭﺽ ﻤﻨﻪ ﺃﻭ ﺘﺒﻴﻊ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺃﺼﻭﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺠـﺎﺭﻱ ﻟـﻪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺭﻓﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ ﻴﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻨﻭﺤﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻌﻤﻼﺌﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻘل ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺍﺝ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓـﺎﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺘﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﻡ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﻭﺘﺴﺘﻨﻔﺫ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﺤﺎﺠﺘﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺭﺼﺩﺓ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻟﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻀﺭ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻗﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺘﺤﺘﻔﻅ ﺒﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﺨﺯﻭﻨﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﻘﻠل ﺤﺎﺠﺘﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺴﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺘﺤﺎﻭل ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺘﻘﺘﺭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ ﻷﻥ‬
‫ﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻘﻠل ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﻤﻥ ﻭﺠﻬﺔ ﻨﻅﺭ ﻋﺩﺓ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﻗﻠﺔ ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﺴﺎﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺩﺍﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻴﺤﺩﺩ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﻨـﻲ ﺘﺨﻔـﻴﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺘﻬﺎﺝ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺍﻷﻭﻀـﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫)ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ(‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺭﻓﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﻜﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺸﺩﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ) ‪ :( Open Market Operation‬ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺎ ﻴ‪‬ﻌﺭﺽ‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺭﺍﻜﺯ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻜﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻟﻠـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻤـﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﻜﻤﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻀﺨﻬﺎ ﺃﻭ ﻴﻤﺘﺼﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ) ‪ ( Certificate of Deposit‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﺩﺍﻭل‪ ،‬ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺒﻠﻐﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ﺃﻭﺩﻉ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭﺓ ﻟﻸﻭﺭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻷﺠل ﻤﻌﻴﻥ ﻭﺒﺴﻌﺭ‬
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‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻌﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺼﺩﺭ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻜل ﻗﻴﺩ ﺩﻓﺘﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺎﻟﻴﺎ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻓﺘﺭﻱ ﻓﻘﻁ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺤﺴﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻴﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺎﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ‬
‫‪.‬ﻭﻴﺼﺩﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ ﻟﻤـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺴﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻗﻠﻴل‪.‬‬

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‫ﻭﻻﻤﺘﺼﺎﺹ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺒﻴﻊ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺇﻴـﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻴﻔﻭﻕ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺘﺤﻕ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﻀﺦ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻨﻪ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺒﻴﻊ ﺤﺠﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻗل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺴﺘﺤﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﻌﻠﻕ ﺒﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴـﺩﺍﻉ ﻫﻨﺎﻟـﻙ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻫﻤﺎ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺒﺄﻨﻭﺍﻋﻬـﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔـﺔ ﺤـﺴﺏ ﻤـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﻡ ﺒﻤﺯﺍﺩ ﻋﻠﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟـﺸﺭﺍﺀ ) ‪ ( Repo Rate‬ﻭﻫـﻭ ﺴـﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺨﺼﻡ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﻗﺘﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٤‬ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ)‪ : (Deposit Over Night Window Rate‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻋﻘﺩ ﺍﺘﻔﺎﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻜل ﻗﻴﺩ ﺩﻓﺘﺭﻱ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺴـﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻴﺤﺩﺩﻩ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺩﺍﺌﻡ ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻬـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺘﻠﻘﺎﺀ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻟـﺩﺍﺨﻠﻲ ‪.‬ﺒـﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻴﻜﻤل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺒﺭﻓﻊ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴـﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﻯ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻗﺩ ﻴـﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺃﺩﺍﺌﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٥‬ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ) ‪ : ( Inter-Bank Over Night‬ﻭﻫـﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ ﻟﺤل ﻤﺸﺎﻜل ﺤﺎﺠﺘﻬﺎ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﻗﺘﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻨﺩ ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻀﻁﺭﺩ ﻟﺩﻯ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺤﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻴـﻪ ﺍﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﻭﻓﺭﺓ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻟـﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ ﺘـﺅﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‬

‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﺒﺸﻘﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻟﻌﺠﻠـﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻨﺎﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺌﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺫﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻔﺯﺓ ﻟﻼﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻫﻲ ﺃﺤﺩ ﺃﻫﻡ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ﻓﺘـﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﻤـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﺜﻴﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺩﺓ ﺠﻭﺍﻨﺏ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺼﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ ﻭﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ‪ :‬ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻌﺯﻴـﺯ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ )‪ (Confidence‬ﻭﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ )‪ (Uncertainty‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺯﺯ ﺜﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻫـﻭ‬
‫ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴ ﹶﺔ ﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ .‬ﻓﻘﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺘﺒﻨـﻰ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﺒـﺎﻟﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﺴﻌﻰ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ) ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ(‪ ،‬ﻴﻤﺜل ﺃﺤـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﻜﺯﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻟﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺒﻴﺌﺔ ﻤﻨﺎﺨﻴﺔ ﺠﺎﺫﺒﺔ ﻭﻤﺸﺠﻌﺔ ﻟﻼﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ‪ :Expectations‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺇﻗﺒﺎﻟﻬﻡ ﻭﺍﻤﺘﻨـﺎﻋﻬﻡ‬

‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺘﻬﻡ ﺤﻴﺎل ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺒﻠﻲ ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜـﺎﻥ ﺘﻭﺴـﻌﻴﹰﺎ ﺃﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺸﺩﺩﻴﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻷﻥ ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻤـﺩﻯ ﺘـﻭﻓﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻤﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻫﻴﻜل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ )‪ (curve Yield‬ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )‪ .(Inflation premium‬ﻜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻴﺄﺨـﺫﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻗﺭﺍﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺘﺴﺒﻕ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻨﻭﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﻬﺎ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﻨـﺎ ﺘﻠﻌـﺏ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ )‪ (Credibility‬ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ ﻫﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﻴﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﻠل‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺇﺭﺒﺎﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﻭﻴﻬﻴﺊ ﻟﻬﻡ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﺃﻓﻀل ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل ‪ :Cost of Raising Capital‬ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ )ﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤـﺎل( ﺤﻠﻘـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺼل ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺜـل ﻭﺍﺴـﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻸﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻫﻭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﻪ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻓـﻲ ﻨﻔـﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﻗﺕ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﺤﺩ ﻤﺤﺩﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻠﻌﺏ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺩﻭﺭﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻫﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺸﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻭﺘﺨﺼﻴﺼﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﻫﻴﻜل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻻ ﻴﻌﻜـﺱ ﺒـﺼﻭﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺩﻗﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﻼﻓﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺘﻜﻠﻔـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤـل ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺨﻔـﺽ ﺍﻻﺩﺨـﺎﺭ‬
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‫ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺎ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺜل‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺘـﺸﺠﻴﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺎﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺨﻔﺽ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٤‬ﻭﻓﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ‪ :Credit Availability‬ﺘﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻭﺏ ﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻤﺎﺭﺱ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻁﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺨﻠﻕ ﻤﺅﺴﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻭﺴـﺎﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ ﻭﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺭﺃﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺤﺸﺩ ﺍﻟﻤـﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻬﻬـﺎ ﻨﺤـﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﻹﺼﻼﺤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻜﻔﺎﺀﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﺼﻴﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺇﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ .١‬ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬

‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻀﺒﻁ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻔﺎﻫﻴﻡ ﻭﺘﺼﻨﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺤﺴﺏ ﻤﺎ ﺼـﻨﻔﺘﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻀﻤﻥ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﻬﺎ‪ :‬ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴـﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ‪....‬ﺍﻟﺦ‪ .‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻴﻘﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻴﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﺴـﻴﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭل ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻕ )‪ (M1‬ﻭﻴﺸﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺩ ﻟـﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬـﻭﺭ )‪،(currency in circulation‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﺴﺏ ﺒﺎﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺼﻨﺎﺩﻴﻕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻴﻀﺎﻑ ﺇﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ ﺘﺤـﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺒﻤﻌﻨﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ )‪ ،( M2‬ﻓﻴﺸﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟـﻀﻴﻕ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻵﺠﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻱ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺤﺎﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻘﻠل ﻤﻥ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺒﺎﻷﺩﺒﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻼﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﻘﺎﺭﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﻤﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ )‪ (M2‬ﻤﻊ ﻨﻤـﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺄﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻟـﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻜـل ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔـﺔ ﻭﺘﻤﻭﻴـل ﺍﻟﻨـﺸﺎﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (٤‬ﺘﻤﺎﺸﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ )‪ (M2‬ﻤﻊ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ ﺒﺎﺴـﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻰ ﺒﺎﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ) ‪ (GDP deflator‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻼﺤـﻅ ﺍﺘـﺴﺎﻋﻪ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ‪-١٩٩٩‬‬
‫‪ ٢٠٠١‬ﻤﻊ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺴﺒﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴـﺭ ﻓـﻲ ﺼـﺎﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺘﻌﻭﻴﻀﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻤﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﺭﺩﻨﻴﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻭﺍﻴﺩﺍﻉ‬
‫ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺼﻨﺩﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﻤﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺨﻼل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪١٩٩٩‬‬
‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻋﻭﺍﺌﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺨﺎﺼﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻌﻭﻴﻀﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻤﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،٢٠٠٠‬ﻭﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻤﺭﺓ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺙ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﺠﺎﺀ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﻤـﻥ ﺃﻫﻤﻬـﺎ ﺍﺯﺩﻴـﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺘـﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ )ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭ( ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻋﻘﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺤـﺭﺏ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻌـﺭﺍﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻬﻴﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺌﺘﻤﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻹﺴﻜﺎﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﻤل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ )ﺘﻨﻅـﻴﻡ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ( ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺇﺼﺩﺍﺭ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻷﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻡ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻋﺯﺯﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﻘﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺠﺫﺏ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪18.00‬‬
‫‪16.00‬‬
‫‪14.00‬‬
‫‪12.00‬‬
‫‪10.00‬‬
‫‪8.00‬‬
‫‪6.00‬‬
‫‪4.00‬‬
‫‪2.00‬‬
‫‪0.00‬‬

‫‪:Q 1‬‬ ‫‪:Q 4‬‬ ‫‪:Q 3‬‬ ‫‪:Q 2‬‬ ‫‪:Q 1‬‬ ‫‪:Q 4‬‬ ‫‪:Q 3‬‬ ‫‪:Q 2‬‬ ‫‪:Q 1‬‬ ‫‪:Q 4‬‬ ‫‪:Q 3‬‬ ‫‪:Q 2‬‬ ‫‪:Q 1‬‬ ‫‪:Q 4‬‬ ‫‪:Q 3‬‬ ‫‪:Q 2‬‬ ‫‪:Q 1‬‬ ‫‪:Q 4‬‬
‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪98‬‬ ‫‪98‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪01‬‬ ‫‪01‬‬ ‫‪02‬‬ ‫‪03‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬ ‫‪05‬‬ ‫‪06‬‬ ‫‪07‬‬ ‫‪07‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺮض اﻟﻨﻘﻮد‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺠﺎرﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺎﻻﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﻳﺘﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٤‬ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷ ﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
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‫‪ .٢‬ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﻬﺎ ﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻋـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻹﻟﺯﺍﻤﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﺒﻤﻨﻅﻭﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻌـﺩل ﻨﻤـﻭ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺤﺎﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﻭﺍﻤل ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻟﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﺎﺌﻀﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻫﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﻤﻔﻬﻭﻤﻪ ﺍﻟﻀﻴﻕ) ‪) ،(M1‬ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﻁﻠـﺏ ﺒﺎﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺩﺍﻭل(‪ ،‬ﻭﺸﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ) ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺘﺤﺕ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﻭﻷﺠل(‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻓﻬﻲ‪ ،‬ﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺼﺎﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﻭﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺭﺘﺒﻁ ﺒﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻁﺭﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ) ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ( ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻴﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﺒﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴـﻊ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬

‫ﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﺭﻨﺔ ﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﻐﻁـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻜﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻭ ﻀﺒﻁﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻟﻪ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻟـﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﻋﻥ ﺤﺎﺠﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﻹﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻨﻔﺴﻬﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺸﺄﻨﻪ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺃﻗﻭﻯ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺭﺹ ﺍﻟﺘـﺴﻠﻴﻑ ﻭﺒـﺸﻜل‬
‫ﺨﻁﻴﺭ ﻗﺩ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﻟﺘﻨﺎﺯل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﻤﺒﺎﺩﺌﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺴﻠﻴﻔﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ ﺴﺘﺘﻭﺠﻪ ﻟﻠﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻹﻥ ﻟﻪ ﻋﺎﺌﺩ ﺃﻓﻀل‪ ،‬ﻤﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺨﻠل ﻓﻲ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺤﺎﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺴﻬﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻹﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻭ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﻟﺨﻠﻕ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻤﻴﻪ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﻘﺎﻋﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺼﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﻓﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻏﻭﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺠـﺎﻨﺒﻬﻡ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻤﺤﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻷﻓﺭﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﻴﻑ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻟﺜﺭﻭﺍﺘﻬﻡ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺇﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻤﺒﺎﻟﻎ ﺃﻜﺒـﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﺼﻭل ﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻜﻠﻪ ﻴﺸﻜل ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠـﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻨـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﻠﻕ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻜﺨﻼﺼﺔ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺨﺫﺓ ﻟﻀﺒﻁ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻟﻠﺤﻔـﺎﻅ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺘﻘﻠﻴﺹ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻭ ﻟﻜﺒﺢ ﺃﻴﺔ ﺁﺜﺎﺭ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻗـﺩ‬
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‫ﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﻋﻨﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﻀﻤﺎﻥ ﻗﺎﺒﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺒﺴﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺼﺭﻑ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻭ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻁﻠﺏ ﻓﺎﺌﺽ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺨـﺩﻤﺎﺕ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﺍﺌﻤﺔ ﻭﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭﺓ ﺒﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﺼﺎﺩﺭ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘـﺼﺎﺤﺒﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻭﺍﺠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ ﻭﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻭﻗـﻊ‬
‫ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺩ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﻜﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻭﺨﻠـﻕ‬
‫ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﻫﻴﻜل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬

‫ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻤﺸﻴﹰﺎ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻁـﻭﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﺴﻭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒـل‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻭﻴﺄﺘﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﺎﺫﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻜﻭﻋـﺎﺀ‬
‫ﺍﺩﺨﺎﺭﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (٥‬ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻤـﻥ ﻗﺒـل ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ )‪ (Repo Rate‬ﻭ ﻨﺎﻓـﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴـﺩﺍﻉ ) ‪Window‬‬

‫‪ (Rate‬ﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ)‪ (CD3 Rate‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ )‪ .(Interbank Rate‬ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﺍﻻﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻱ‬
‫ﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻋﻡ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺸﻜل ﻓﺭﻀـﻴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺘـﺄﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺘﻔﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺎ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

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‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪5:‬‬
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‫‪Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪9:‬‬
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‫‪Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪5:‬‬
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‫‪Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬
‫‪94‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪07‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬

‫‪cd3‬‬ ‫‪Int.Bank‬‬ ‫‪Repo‬‬ ‫‪Window‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٥‬ﻫﻴﻜل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ) ‪ (Market rate‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ‬
‫ﻷﺠل )‪ (Time Deposit Rate‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻑ ) ‪Loans & Advances‬‬

‫‪ (Rate‬ﻓﻘﺩ ﺘﻤﺸﻴﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻜﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻫﻭ ﻤﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .(٦‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻷﺠل ﻜﺎﻨـﺕ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻓﻘـﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻷﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺃﺴﺭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ‬
‫ﻷﺠل‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل‪ ،‬ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻤﻠﺤﻭﻅ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﻭﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﻬﺎﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺃﻥ ﻨﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻬـﺎﻤﺵ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻓﻊ ﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ ﻭﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﻫـﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺘﺤﺩﺩ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﺩﻴﻬﺎ ﻭﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻨﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺘﺄﺘﻲ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻜﺒﻴـﺭ ﻭﺨﻔـﺽ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜـﺯﻱ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﻤﻬﻭﺭ ﻟﻥ ﻴﺴﺘﺠﻴﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺒﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺒل ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﻁﻠـﺏ‬
‫ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻟﻥ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ ﺒﺘﻌـﺩﻴل‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻙ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻼ ﻻﺴـﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻭﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺃﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺘﻤﺜـﻴ ﹰ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﺘـﺩﻋﻡ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻼ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺠـﺎﺀ ﻤﺘـﺴﻘﹰﺎ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻀ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‪.‬‬
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‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬ ‫‪:Q‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪94‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪01‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪02‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪05‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪06‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪07‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪Time‬‬ ‫‪Advances‬‬ ‫‪cd3‬‬ ‫‪Repo‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٦‬ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﻨﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻫﻭ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻨﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻷﺸﻴﺎﺀ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻘل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺒﻭل ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﻘـﻭل‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻭﺠﻭﺩﻩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺼﻐﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻭﻀﻊ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻟﻠﺒﻠﺩ ﺴﻠﻴﻤﺎ ﻭﺼﺤﻴﺤﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺃﻤﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﺨﻴﻔﹰﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻷﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻗﻠﺔ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺌـﺩ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻴﻨﺘﻅﺭﻭﻨﻬـﺎ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺘﻬﻡ‪ .‬ﻓﺎﻟﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ ﻋﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﺨﺘﺎﺭ ﺃﺤﺩﻫﺎ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﺭﺒﻁ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻟﻪ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺌﻠﺔ ﺒﻬـﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺘﻌﻭﺩ ﻟﻪ ﺃﻤﻭﺍﻟﻪ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻗل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﻓﻀل ﻟﻪ ﻟـﻭ ﺼـﺭﻓﻬﺎ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺸﺘﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪ ،‬ﻟﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻀﺎﺌﻊ ﺫﺍﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜ ﹰ‬
‫ﻼ ﻟﻭ ﻗﺎﻡ ﺒﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺴﻠﻊ ﻤﻌﻤﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺴـﻠﻊ‬
‫ﻤﺘﺸﺭﺒﺔ ﻟﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﺎﻷﺭﺍﻀﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭ ﻟﻜﺎﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻓﻀل ﻟﻪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺘﻌﻤل ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺘﺎﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﺅﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﻭﻤﻨﺸﺌﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﺝ‪ .‬ﻓﺘﺘﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺭﺃﺴﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺴﻴﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺤـﺩ ﻤـﻥ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﺘﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺼﺎﻥ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺘﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻓﻌﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟـﻙ‬
‫ﻋﻼﻤﺎﺕ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺩﺃﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻅﻬﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺤﻜﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻫﻭ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻷﻤﻭﺍل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﻴﻬﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻌﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻹﻏﺭﺍﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺴﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺒﻔﻌل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺃﻨﻭﺍﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺠﺫﺏ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻨﻔﺎﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻻ ﺘﻤﺜـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺒﻘﺩﺭ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪.‬ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺯﺍﺤـﻑ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻘـﺼﺩ ﺒـﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺭﻴﺠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻠﻴـﻪ ﺨـﻼﻑ ﺒـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﻴﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺭﻯ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺒﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻨﻤـﺎ ‪‬ﺀ ﻟﻼﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔـﻲ‬
‫ﺃﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺯﺍﺤﻑ‪ ،‬ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻗﺒل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺭﺩ ﻓﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺒﺎﺡ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﺭﺠﺎل ﺍﻷﻋﻤﺎل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ‪ .‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻵﺨـﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻵﺜـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺍﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺸﺩﻴﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺴﻨﻭﻱ ﻗﺩﺭﻩ ‪ %٣‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻤﻀﺎﻋﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ‪ ٢٣‬ﺴـﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤـﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺯﺍﺤـﻑ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺎﻋﻑ ﺒﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﻭﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﺢ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻟﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺤﻠﺯﻭﻨﻲ ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻷﺠﻭﺭ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺘﺅﺩﻱ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺭﺩﻭﺩ ﺃﻓﻌﺎل ﺘﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻓـﺈﻥ ﻫـﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﻐﺫﻱ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﺒﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻟﻸﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻴﺩﺭﻙ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﻡ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـﺴﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺃﻓﻀل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻐﺩ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺴﺎﺭﻋﻭﺍ ﺇﻟـﻰ "ﺍﻻﻜﺘﻨـﺎﺯ" ﺃﻱ ﺸـﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺤﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻴﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺜﺒﺎﺘﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺃﻤﺭ ﻴـﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺘﺩﻫﻭﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺴﺭﻋﺎﻥ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻀﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻵﺨﺫ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘـﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﺒﻤﻴـﺯﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﺒﺎﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻜﻜل ﻭﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﻭﺠﻪ‪:‬‬

‫ﺘﻌﺭ‪‬ﺽ ﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﺸﺩﻴﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ )ﻓﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺤﻠﻴ‪‬ﺎ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ ﻴﻘل ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺠﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤـﻥ ﻁﺎﻗـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻁﻠﺔ ﻭﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺠـﺯ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻓﻭﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﺘﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﻤﻭﺍﺠﻬﺘﻪ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺯﺍﻑ ﺍﺤﺘﻴﺎﻁﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺒﻼﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺫﻫﺏ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺩﺍﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺘﺼﻔﻴﺔ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻤﻠﻜﻪ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻤـﻥ ﺃﺼـﻭل‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺨﺎﺭﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﺎ ﺤﺩﺙ ﻟﻠﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﻤﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻹﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴـﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻴﺎﺒﺎﻥ ﻭﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭﺭﻭﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻜﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻭﻻﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺃﺴﺭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻋﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ؛ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻘﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴـﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠـﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺃﺩﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﻋﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻊ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺍﺯﻨﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺭﺒﻤﺎ ﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻀﺦ ﻋﻤﻠﺘﻬـﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻘﺎﺒل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻤﻨﺎﻅﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺠﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﺯﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﻠﻘﺔ ﻤﻔﺭﻏﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻭﺀ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺘـﺸﻬﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻠﻜـﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻤﻭﺠﺔ ﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻨﺴﺒﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﻨﺫ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،٢٠٠٣‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺒﺩﺕ ﺠﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻨـﺫ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ،٢٠٠٦‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺃﻟﻘﺕ ﻅﻼﻟﻬﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﺼﺎﻨﻌﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﻤﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﻥ ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻴﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺘﺼﺩﺭﻫﻤﺎ ﺩﺍﺌﺭﺓ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺀﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻤـﺎ ﻤﺨﻔـﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻓﻴﺭﺼﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺜـﺎﻨﻲ ﻭﻫـﻭ ﺍﻷﻫـﻡ‪ ،‬ﻴﻘـﻴﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺴﻠﺔ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺭﻯ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﺴﺘﻬﻼﻙ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺱ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻗﺩ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﺒـﺸﻜل ﻤﻠﺤـﻭﻅ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻷﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋـﺎﻡ ‪ ،١٩٨٩‬ﺤﻴـﺙ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺇﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺴﻴﺎﺴـﺔ ﺼـﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻟﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻘﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒـﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻟﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺸﺠﻴﻊ ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﺕ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻓـﺭﺹ ﻋﻤـل‬
‫ﻭﺩﻋﻡ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻫﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺨﻔﻴﺽ ﺍﻵﺜﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺠـﺯ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻤﺤﺼﻠﺔ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻻﺒﺩ ﺍﻹﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﻭﻨﻪ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻨﺎﺘﺠـﺔ ﻋـﻥ‬
‫ﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ )ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ( ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﻟﺤـﺭﺏ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻕ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺭﺍﻓﻘﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﻓﻕ ﺭﺅﻭﺱ ﺃﻤﻭﺍل ﻀﺨﻤﺔ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﺎﺯﺩﻫﺎﺭ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻹﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻭﺭﺼﺔ ﺇﻻ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺨﻠﻘﺕ ﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻤﺘﺯﺍﻤﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻟﺠﻭﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴـﺩ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻷﺸﻘﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺍﻗﻴﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺴﺒﺏ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻀﻐﻁﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻹﺴﻜﺎﻥ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﺠﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﺭﻴﻊ ﻤﻤـﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ‪ %٦،٤‬ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ٢٠٠٦‬ﻭ ‪ ٥،٤‬ﻓﻲ ﻨﻬﺎﻴﺔ ‪.٢٠٠٧‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺨﻼل ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻨﺠﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗـﻡ )‪ (٧‬ﺘﺫﺒـﺫﺏ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ .٢٠٠٦‬ﻭﺒﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻘـﺎﺱ ﺒـﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﺒﻤﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻭﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‪.‬‬

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‫‪5‬‬‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪95‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪98‬‬ ‫‪98‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪00‬‬ ‫‪01‬‬ ‫‪01‬‬ ‫‪02‬‬ ‫‪03‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬ ‫‪05‬‬ ‫‪06‬‬ ‫‪07‬‬ ‫‪07‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬

‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻣﻘﺎس ﻳﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﻔﺾ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ اﻻﺟﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﻣﻘﺎس ﻳﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻒ اﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٧‬ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‬

‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ) ‪ (Cor-Inflation‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‬

‫ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﺩﻕ ﻓﻼ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ) ‪ ،(Cor-Inflation‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻪ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﺜـﺭ ﻜـل ﻤـﻥ ﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻊ ﺫﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﺎﻷﺤﻭﺍل ﺍﻟﺠﻭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗـﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘـل‬
 ‫‪٦٢‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﻀﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ) ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻜﻴﻥ(‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﺒﻠﺩ ﺼﻐﻴﺭ ﺠﺩﹰﺍ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻻﻴﻭﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻥ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺴـﻌﺎﺭ ﺒـﺸﻜل ﻤﺒﺎﺸـﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺒﻌﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺴـﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟـﺫﻜﺭ ﻭﺤـﺴﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ )‪ ،(cor-Inflation‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻪ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭل ﺍﻟـﺼﻨﺎﻋﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻘﺩﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻘﻭﻡ ﺒﺈﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻓﻪ ﻜﻬﺩﻑ ﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺇﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﺴـﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ) ‪.(Inflation Targting‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻔﺴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻜﺒﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻤﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺫﻟـﻙ ﻻ ﻴـﺴﺘﺩﻋﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺴﺒﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻟﻴﺱ ﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻋﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻜﻤﻴﺔ ﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺯﺍﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺇﻨﻤﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺫﻜﺭ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻀﺭﻭﻑ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺃﻭ ﺍﺴـﺘﺜﻨﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺩ ﺘﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺴﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴـﻠﺒﻲ ﺤﻴـﺙ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻻ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴﹰﺎ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺸﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺴﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬

‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻨﻼﺤﻅ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗـﻡ )‪،(٨‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻘل ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀـﺢ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﻭﺨﻼل ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ٢٠٠٧‬ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻌﺕ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻐﺫﺍﺀ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﺒﻭﺏ ﻭﺍﻷﻋﻼﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻭﻨﻪ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﺎﻗﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪8.0‬‬

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‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪ar‬‬

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‫‪n‬‬

‫‪n‬‬

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‫‪ep‬‬

‫‪ep‬‬

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‫‪Ju‬‬

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‫‪M‬‬

‫‪M‬‬

‫‪M‬‬

‫‪M‬‬
‫‪D‬‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫‪D‬‬

‫‪D‬‬
‫‪S‬‬

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‫‪S‬‬

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‫‪04‬‬

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‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﻮاد اﻟﻐﺬاﺋﻴﺔ‬

‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﻮاد اﻟﻐﺬاﺋﻴﺔ واﻟﻮﻗﻮد واﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺜﻨﺎء اﻟﻮﻗﻮد واﻟﻨﻘﻞ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٨‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻷﺴﺎﺴﻲ‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪:‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘﺜﺒﻴﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻻ ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟـﺴﻌﺭ ﺘﺠـﺎﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ‪ .‬ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﺃﻤـﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻭﺃﺜﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ) ‪ ،(Exchange Rate Pass Through‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺴﺎﺏ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل‪ ،‬ﻴﺄﺨـﺫ ﺒﻌـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﻁ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﺨﺫ ﺒﻌـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻫﻤﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻴﺘﺸﻜل ﻟـﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﻤﻘﻴـﺎﺱ ﺃﺩﻕ‬
‫ﻟﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻴﻭﺭﻭ ﻭﺍﻟﺠﻨﻴﻪ ﺍﻹﺴﺘﺭﻟﻴﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻭﻨﻪ ﺍﻻﺨﻴﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺨﻔﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴـﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌـﺎل‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﺃﺜﻤـﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﺒﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺠﺯﺀﹰﺍ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﻠﻙ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺴﻠﻊ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺴﻌﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﺴﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺸـﻜل ﻤـﻥ ﺃﺸـﻜﺎل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﺯﺍﻴﺩ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻵﻭﻨﻪ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺒـﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴـﺭ ﺃﻤـﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺃﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻘﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻤﺭﻴﻜﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﻨﻅﺭﺓ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(٩‬ﻨﺠﺩ ﺃﻥ ﺴـﻌﺭ ﺍﻟـﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺤﺘﻰ ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪٢٠٠٦‬؛ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤـﻥ ﺫﻟـﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺼﺎﻋﺩ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻻﻴﺘﻔﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻁﺭﻭﺡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺴﺕ ﺒﻌﺩ ﻤﻨﺘﺼﻑ ﻋﺎﻡ ‪ ٢٠٠٦‬ﻓﻘﻁ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺩﻟﻴل ﻭﺍﻀﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﺴﺎﻫﻤﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺨﻠﻕ ﻀﻐﻭﻁ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻟـﻙ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻷﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻫﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ‪ ،‬ﺘﻘﺭﻴﺒﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﺜﻠﺜﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴـﻪ ﻓـﺈﻥ ﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
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‫‪8.0‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬

‫‪7.0‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬

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‫‪2.0‬‬ ‫‪-5.0‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪-6.0‬‬
‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪-7.0‬‬
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‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺼﺮف اﻟﻔﻌﺎل ) اﻟﻤﺤﻮر اﻷﻳﻤﻦ(‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٩‬ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺃﻋﻤﻕ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺍﺜـﺭ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١٠‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻤﻭﺍﺯﻴﹰﺎ ﻟﺤﺭﻜﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻹﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘـﺫﻜﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺘﺸﻜل ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﺠﺯﺌﻲ ﻭﻟﻴﺱ ﻜﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﺒﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻴﺸﻜل ﺠﺯﺀﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻜﺒﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
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‫اﻟﺘﻀﺨﻢ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻐﻴﺮ اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻘﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻻﺳﻌﺎر اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮردات‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺭ‪:‬ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺸﻬﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .(١٠‬ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
 ‫‪٦٥‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺭﺍﺒﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻤﻘﺩﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨـﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺒﻨﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻴﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﻴﻥ‪ ،‬ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟـﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴـﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴـﺩ‬
‫)‪ (VAR‬ﻟﻴﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ )‪ ،(Baseline model‬ﻭﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟـﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤـل‪.‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪ .‬ﻭﺜﺎﻨﻴـﹰﺎ‬
‫ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﻴﺘﻁﺭﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )‪ ) (Policy Rate‬ﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﺇﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟـﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫)‪ (RepoRate‬ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ )‪ ((Window Rate‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﻠﻨﺔ ﻭﻤﺤﺩﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ(‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻷﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻭﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ )‪.(Interbank Rate‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻷﺠل‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ) ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ(‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ )‪.(VAR‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ‪ :‬ﻭﻴﺘﻁﺭﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤـﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺠﻌل ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻭﺫﻟـﻙ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻻﻭﻟـﻰ )‪(Cointegrated Vector Autoregression‬‬
‫)‪.(Coin_VAR‬‬
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‫ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻨﻁﻼﻗﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺇﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘـﺼﻑ ﻜﻴﻔﻴـﺔ ﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ) *‪ ،( M-M‬ﻭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗـﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠـل )‪،(Rs‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺒﺈﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺘﻌﺩﻴﻼﺕ ﻤﺘﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠـﺔ ﺍﻷﺠـل‬

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‫)‪ ،(RL‬ﻭ ﻓﺠﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ )*‪ ،(Y-Y‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )‪ .(INF‬ﻭﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻟـﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﺘـﺎﻟﻲ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻓﻌﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠـل‬
‫ﻴﺘﺒﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻟﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺩﻭﺭﻫﺎ ﻭﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪X t/ = [ M − Pt GDP t RW t INR t CD 3 t CD‬‬ ‫‪6t‬‬ ‫] ‪AT t INF t‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :X/t‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :M-Pt‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ )‪.(M/P‬‬
‫‪ :GDPt‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :RWt‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ )ﺘﻤﺜل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ(‪.‬‬
‫‪ :INRt‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺤﻴـﺙ‬
‫ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻓﻭﺭﻱ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :CD3t‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :CD6t‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻟﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺠل ﻜﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺴﻨﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻀﻌﻑ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺍﻹﺼﺩﺍﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺴﻌﻴﺭ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻻﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﺼﺩﺍﺭﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻨﺤﻨﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺌﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :ATt‬ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻨﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ ) ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻷﺠل( ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :INFt‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻭﻟﻠﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﺤل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺘﻤـﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﺎﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﺯﻤﺔ ﺍﻹﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ)‪ (Eviews‬ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻭﻟـﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺒﺎﻟﺭﺯﻤـﺔ ﺍﻹﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫)‪ ( Structural Vector Autoregressive) (SVAR‬ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺘﻘـﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤـﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟـﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل )‪ ،(cointegrated-VAR‬ﻟﻠﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻜل ﻤـﻥ ﻤـﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﺜـﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌـﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻜﻠـﻲ‬

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‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﻗﻭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺎ ﻫﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﻓﺤﺹ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﻘﻴـﺎﺱ ﻤـﺩﻯ ﺍﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ)‪(The Unit Root Test‬‬

‫)‪ (Shewhart 2004‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ‪:‬‬

‫ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻀﺎﻴﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺠﺎل ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺒـﺸﻜل ﻋـﺎﻡ‬
‫ﻭﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺨﺎﺹ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺴﻼﺴل ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺘﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺴﺎﻜﻨﺔ )‪ (Stationary‬ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟـﺯﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺜﻭﻕ ﺒﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜـﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺯﺍﺌﻔﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﺘﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻜﻭﻥ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ ،(Yt‬ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﻴﻔﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻭﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ)‪:(Greene 2003‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻌﺔ)ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ( ﻟﻠﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ (Yt‬ﻫﻲ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻋﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ )‪.(E(Yt) = µy‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ (Yt‬ﻟﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ‪. var( yt ) = Ε(Yt − µ y ) 2 = σ 2 y‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻟﻠﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﺘﺭﺓ ﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻓﻘﻁ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ‬
‫‪ E[(Yt − µY )(Yt + K − µY ) = γ K‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ γ K‬ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻭ‪ k‬ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﻴﺎﺏ ﺼﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ )‪ ،(Stationarity‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴـﻪ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺯﺍﺌﻔﹰﺎ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ )‪ (Spurious‬ﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ )‪ .(R2‬ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻭﺠﺩ‬
‫ﺒﻬﺎ ﻋﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ )‪ ،(Trend‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻅﺭﻭﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﻨﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻔﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺃﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻫﺎﺕ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻜﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﹰﺎ ﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ – ﻓﻭﻟﺭ)‪ .(Dickey–Fuller‬ﻭﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ )‪ (Yt‬ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺃﻡ‬
‫ﻻ؛ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪: (Shewhart 2004‬‬
‫‪Yt =ρYt-1 + Ut ……..١٩‬‬
 ‫‪٦٨‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺩ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ– ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﺤﺴﺏ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ )‪ ،τ= n(ρ^-1‬ﺤﻴﺙ )‪ (n‬ﻋﺩﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ^‪ ρ‬ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻋﻼﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ )‪ (τ‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ )ﺒﺎﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ( ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀـﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺒﺎﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻡ ﺍﻴـﻀﹰﺎ‬

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‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻗل ﻤﻥ ‪ %٥‬ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻠـﺴﺔ ﻤـﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﻭﻴﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ _ ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﻟﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻓﺘـﺭﺓ ﺘﺒـﺎﻁﺅ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﻋﺎﻤـل ﺍﻻﺘﺠـﺎﻩ )‪ (trend‬ﻟﻴـﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ ) ‪(Augmented Dickey–Fuller‬‬
‫ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Gujarati 1995‬‬
‫‪m‬‬
‫‪∆ Y t = β 1 + β 2 t + δ Y t −1 + α‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫∑‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪∆ Y t − 1 + ε t - .........٢٠‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ m‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩﻫﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ )‪ (Shewhart‬ﻭﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ‬
‫)‪ ،(Akaike Information Criterion) (AIC‬ﻭ ‪ t‬ﻋﺎﻤل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ )‪.(trend‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ )‪ ،I(1‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻤﺯﻴﺞ ﺨﻁﻲ‬
‫ﻤﺎ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ )‪ I(0‬ﻟﻴﻌﺒﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺃﻜﺜﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺯﻴﺞ ﺨﻁﻲ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل)ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ( )‪.(Greene 2003‬‬
‫‪u t = INF − β 1 − β 2 M t ...............٢١‬‬

‫‪INF = β1 + β 2 M t + ut ...............٢٢‬‬
‫‪u t __ I ( 0 ) ...............٢٣‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﻁﺒﻊ ﻻﺒﺩ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ )ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ( ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤـﺸﺘﺭﻙ )‪ (Cointegration Test‬ﻟﺒﻴـﺎﻥ ﻓﻴﻤـﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨـﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺃﻡ ﻻ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـ ‪.Trace‬‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ )‪:(The Causality Test‬‬
‫ﺘﹸﻌﺭ‪‬ﻑ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ‪ X‬ﻭ ‪ Y‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ X‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ ‪ Y‬ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ X‬ﻴﻤﻠﻙ ﻁﺎﻗﺔ ﺘﻨﺒﺅﻴﻪ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ Y‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﺇﻀـﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﻁﺅ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ‪ X‬ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻘﻴﻡ ‪ Y‬ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ) ‪.(Granger Causality test‬‬
 ‫‪٦٩‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ‪ ، Yt =[INFt M − Pt ]′‬ﻭﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻥ ‪ M2‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ INF‬ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ)‪:(Gujarati 1995‬‬

‫‪p‬‬ ‫‪p‬‬

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‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫∑‬
‫‪i=1‬‬
‫‪α i INF‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫∑‬‫‪i=1‬‬
‫‪β i M − Pt + u t‬‬ ‫‪.........٢٤‬‬

‫‪p‬‬ ‫‪p‬‬
‫= ‪M − Pt‬‬ ‫∑‬‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪α i M − Pt +‬‬ ‫∑‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪β i INF‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪+ ut‬‬ ‫‪.....٢٥‬‬

‫ﻭﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ )‪ (H0: β1 =β2 =β3…. =βP =0‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﻴﻠﺔ ‪(H1:‬‬

‫)‪ β1 ≠0, β2 ≠0, …. , βP ≠ 0‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺭﻓﺽ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﻓـﺈﻥ ‪ M-P‬ﻻ ﻴـﺴﺒﺏ ‪INF‬‬

‫ﻭﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ F‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺤﺴﺏ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪( RSS‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪− RSS‬‬ ‫‪UR‬‬ ‫)‬

‫‪q‬‬
‫= ‪F‬‬ ‫) ‪∼∼ F q , ( n − m‬‬
‫‪RSS‬‬ ‫‪.....٢٦‬‬
‫‪UR‬‬
‫) ‪(n − m‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ )‪ (RSS‬ﻤﺠﻤﻭﻉ ﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻓﺎﺕ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺴﺭﺓ‪ (q) ،‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﻤﻘﺎﺭﻨﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ‪ (m) ،‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ‪،‬‬
‫)‪(n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‪ (UR) ،‬ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ)‪ (R) ،(Unrestricted Regression‬ﺍﻻﻨﺤـﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ )‪ (Restricted Regression‬ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻜل ﻤﻥ) ‪ (β1, β2, β3,…., βP‬ﺘـﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺼـﻔﺭ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻅل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ‪:‬‬
‫‪p‬‬
‫‪INFt = ∑ α i INFt + u t‬‬ ‫‪.....٢٧‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻗﺒﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ‪ M2‬ﻻ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ ،INF‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺘﻡ ﺭﻓـﻀﻬﺎ ﻓﻴﻜـﻭﻥ‬
‫‪ M2‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪. INF‬‬
 ‫‪٧٠‬‬

‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ)‪(Vector Autoregression) (VAR‬‬

‫ﺃﻭ ﹰﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺘﻌﻤل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟـﺭﺒﻁ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴـﺔ )‪ (endogenous‬ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴـﺔ‬
‫)‪ (exogenous‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﻴﺔ ﺩﺍﺨل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻨﺤـﻥ ﻨﻌـﺭﻑ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻔﺎﻋل ﺠﻤﻠـﺔ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺭﺍﺒﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺒﻌﺽ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻻ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﻁـﺎﺓ )‪ (as given‬ﻭﻫـﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻭﺼﻠﻨﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺩﺍﺨﻠﻴﺔ )‪ ،(endogenous‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ‪VAR‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﺫﻭ ﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩ ‪ pxp‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺤﻭ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Bendini 2000‬‬

‫‪X t = δ 1 X t −1 + ..... + δ ρ X t − k + µ 0 + ε t ...........٢٨‬‬

‫] ‪X t/ = [ M − P , GDP , RW , INR , CD3 , CD6 , AT , INF‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ Xt‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻭﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ‪ PXP‬ﻭ ‪ ε‬ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﺩ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺩل‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺤﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ )‪:(Johansen 2000‬‬

‫‪∆X t = δ1 X t −1 + Γ1∆X t −1 + ..... + Γk −1∆X t − k +1 + µ0 + ε t ...٢٩‬‬

‫ﺨﻁﺄ ﺃﺒﻴﺽ ﻤﻭﺯﻉ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻭﻭﺴﻁﻪ ﺼﻔﺭ ﻭﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ])‪. [ε t ≈ Np(0, Ω‬‬ ‫‪ε‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺘﻘﺴﻴﻤﻬﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺠﺯﺌﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻭﻫﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻭﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﺃﻱ‬
‫ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻤﺜل ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺯﺀ ‪ (Greene 2003) ∆Xt‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻭﺼﻔﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪Et −1 ( ∆X t σ t −1 ) = π 1 X t −1 + Γ1∆X t −1 + ..... + Γk −1∆X t − k +1 ..........٣٠‬‬

‫ﻓﺘﻘﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻠـﻡ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒـﺎﻴﻥ‬ ‫‪ε‬‬ ‫ﻭﺘﻘﻴﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ‬

‫ﻤﻌﺭﻭﻑ ﻤﺴﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻭﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ‪ . σ t −1‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﻊ ﺘﻭﻓﻴﺭ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ )‪ (t-1‬ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺩﻤﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‬

‫ﺫﻭ ﺨﻁـﺄ ﺃﺒـﻴﺽ )ﻭﺴـﻁﻪ ﺼـﻔﺭ ﻭﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨـﻪ‬ ‫‪ε‬‬ ‫‪ ، σ t −1‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻤﺎ ﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ‬

‫ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ‪ ،( Ω‬ﻴﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻤﺘﺎﺡ ﻭﻤﺘﺴﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺭﺸﻴﺩ)‪.(Greene 2003‬‬

 ‫‪٧١‬‬

‫ﻭﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻴﺜﺔ ﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺔ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻜﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺨﻁﻴﺔ ﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺒﻘﻴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻜل ﻤﺎﻴﻠﺯﻡ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻫﻭ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻓﻘﻁ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ )‪) (Selection the Lag-Length‬ﻹﻴﺠـﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻌـﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺜـل‬
‫ﻟﻔﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ( ﻴﺘﻡ ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﻴﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻤﻴﹰﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺃﻫﻤﻬﺎ)‪ (Shewhart 2004‬ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ )‪ ،(Akaike Information Criterion) (AIC‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺃﺴﺎﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺒـ )‪ ،(Likelihood Ratio Test‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪L = cons tan t +‬‬

‫‪n‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫] [‬
‫‪log Ω /‬‬
‫‪−1‬‬
‫‪.....٣١‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪ n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻭ‪ Ώ‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻟﻠﺒﻭﺍﻗﻲ ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫‪ ،VAR‬ﻭﻴﺨﻀﻊ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻜﺎﻱ ﺘﺭﺒﻴﻊ ‪ .Х2‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺃﻗل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻟـ )‪ .(AIC‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺴﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ‬
‫)‪ (Schwartz’s Criterion)(SBC‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺁﺨﺭ ﺸﺎﺌﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﻻﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺃﻴﻀﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ )‪ (Likelihood Ratio Test‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪SBC(m) = n Log | Ώ-1 | + m Ln (n).....٣٢‬‬

‫ﺤﻴﺙ ‪ n‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﻫﺩﺍﺕ ﻭ ‪ m‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺭﺓ‪ Ώ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺫﻜﺭﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻜﺎﻴﻙ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﺍﻷﻤﺜل ﻟﻌﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﻗل ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﻟـ‬
‫)‪.(SBC‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ ﺍﺴـﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﺘـﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤـﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟـﺫﺍﺘﻲ )‪Roots of Characteristic ) (VAR‬‬

‫‪:(Polynomial‬‬
‫ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﻴﺩﺓ ﻟﻔﺤﺹ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ ، VAR‬ﺣﻴ ﺚ ﻳ ﺸﺘﺮط‬
‫هﺬ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر ان ﻻ ﺗﺘﺠﺎوز اﻟﺠﺬور اﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج واﺣﺪ ﺻﺤﻴﺢ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٧٢‬‬

‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ )‪:(Variance Decomposition‬‬

‫ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻟﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ ،VAR‬ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺒﺭﺯ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺍﻷﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﻴﺔ ﻷﺜﺭ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ )‪ (Shock‬ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺯﺍﻤﻥ ﻟﻸﺨﻁﺎﺀ‬
‫)‪ (Contemporaneous‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻠﺠﻭﺀ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﺘﺸﻭﻻﺴﻜﻲ‬
‫) ‪ (Cholaski Decomposition‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻩ‪ .‬ﻭﻟﺘﻼﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﺴﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﺘﻐﻴﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ )‪.(Wei 1990‬‬
‫ﺨﺎﻤﺴ ﹰﺎ‪:‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل )‪:(Impulse Response Function‬‬
‫ﺘﻌﻤل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺘﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ ﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻑ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ )‪ (Shocks‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺘﻌﺭﺽ‬
‫ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ .VAR‬ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻜﻴﻔﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻷﻱ ﻫﺯﺓ ﺃﻭ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻱ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺠﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺫﻜﺭﻩ ﺒﺄﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻟﻬﻤﺎ ﺃﻫﻤﻴﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ)‪.(Gujarati 1995‬‬

‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل )‪:(Cointegrated-VAR‬‬

‫ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺎﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻫﻴﻜﻠﻲ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺎﺘﺠﹰﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺃﻭ ﺃﻨﻪ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﺎﺭﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﺜﺎل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺓ ﻟﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺤﺘﻰ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺼﻭﺭﺓ ﺩﻗﻴﻘﻪ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻬﻴﻜﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻟﻠﺨﻁﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ‪ . ε‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﺃﻭﻻ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺅﺜﺭﺓ ﺒﺎﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Johansen and Katarina, 2001‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺸﻲﺀ ﻓﺭﻴﺩ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ )ﺤﺩﺙ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ .‬ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺃﺤﺎﺩﻴﺔ )ﻓﺭﺩﻴﺔ( ﻭﻤﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﻟﻭﺤﺩﻩ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٧٣‬‬

‫ﺝ‪ .‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺓ )ﻻ ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﺃﻱ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﺠﺭﺍﺀ ﺇﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺠﺩﻴﺩﺓ(‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺩﺍﻗﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﻴﻜل ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ) }‪.( ε t = ∆X t − Et −1{∆X t σ t −1‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻨﺎﺼﺭ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻟﺘﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﺃﻭﺠﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻭﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫‪ VAR‬ﺍﻟﻤﺒﺴﻁ ﻟﺘﻔﺭﺽ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻭﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺒﻴﻥ‬

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‫ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل )‪ (Cointegrated VAR‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬
‫ﻴﺄﺨﺫ ﺒﻌﻴﻥ ﺍﻻﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﻬﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫‪VAR‬‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻔﺭﺽ ﺃﻥ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻭﺼﻔﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫)‪ (R‬ﻤﻊ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Johansen and Katarina, 2001‬‬
‫‪k −1‬‬
‫‪∆X t − λ = α (β X t −1 − ρ (t − 1) − µ ) + ∑ Γi (∆X t −i − λ ) + ε t .....٣٣‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬

‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ Xt‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ )ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺘﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻓﻴﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﺎ( ﻭﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩ ‪ nxn‬ﻭ ) ‪ (α & β‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺘﻴﻥ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩ ‪ nxr‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ‪ r‬ﻋﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ )‪ .(Rahbek 1998‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﻫﺎﺘﺎﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺘﺎﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ‪ Γi‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩ ‪ nxn‬ﻭ‬
‫)‪ (i=1,2,…..p‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ P‬ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻻﻤﺜل ﻭ∆ ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﻭ ‪ λ‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻤﻭﺯﻉ ﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﺫﻭ ﻭﺴﻁ‬ ‫‪ε‬‬ ‫ﺍﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ‪ Px1‬ﻭ ‪ . ρ / = β / λ‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﻴﺘﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﺨﻁـﺄ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺼﻔﺭ ﻭﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻡ ‪ .Ω‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﺨﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻤﻭﺯ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺼﺎﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫‪ Cointegrated-VAR‬ﺒﺩﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ )‪ Γi = 0 ،(Trend‬ﻟﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻗﻴﻡ ‪ .λ=0 ،i‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Johansen, 2000‬‬

‫‪∆X‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪= α (Β / X‬‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪− µ ) + ε t ..............٣٤‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ))‪ (Cointegrated, I(1‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻭﻓﻘﻁ ﺇﺫﺍ ﺤﻘﻘﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Johansen and Katarina, 2001‬‬

‫‪eig ( I‬‬ ‫‪r‬‬ ‫‪+ β / α ) < 1 .......................٣٥‬‬

‫ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﻁﻠﻘﺔ ﻟﻠـ ‪ eigenvalues‬ﺃﻗل ﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻨﻌﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Johansen 2001‬‬
 ‫‪٧٤‬‬

‫‪t‬‬
‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪= C‬‬ ‫∑‬‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪ε‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪+ y t + A + α ( β / α ) − 1 µ ........٣٦‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ A‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻴﺔ )‪ (β / A = 0‬ﻭ‪ Yt‬ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺒﻭﺴﻁ ﺼﻔﺭ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬

‫‪ β X t = β Yt + µ‬ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺒﻭﺴﻁ ‪ ،µ‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ C‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻁﻭﻴل ﺍﻷﺠل ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺼﻭﻓﺔ‬

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‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪C = β ⊥ (α ⊥/ β t ) − 1 α ⊥/ = I p − α ( β / α ) − 1 β / ...........٣٧‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ⊥ ‪ α‬ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﻤﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻜﺎﻤل )‪ (Full rank‬ﻭﺃﺒﻌﺎﺩﻩ ))‪ (px(p-r‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ ، α /α ⊥ = 0‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ‪ α = 0‬ﻋﻨﺩﻫﺎ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﻟﻠﺨﻁﺄ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ‪ α ⊥ = I p‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ‬
‫‪ ، α = I p‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ‪ Xt‬ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ))‪ ( X t − I (0‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ‪) α ⊥ = 0‬ﺃﻱ ﻻ‬
‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻫﻨﺎﻙ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻘل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻁ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (٣٦‬ﻫﻭ ﻀﻤﻨﻲ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ β /α‬ﺘﻤﺘﻠﻙ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻜﺎﻤل )‪(Full rank‬‬
‫ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺘﻌﺎﺩل ⊥ ‪ . α ⊥/ β‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ‪ C ،‬ﻤﻌﺭﻑ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺠﻴﺩ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ β / X t‬ﻭﻫﻭ )‪ VAR(1‬ﺒﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ‬

‫ﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ) ‪ (I p + β ⊥α‬ﻭﺸﺭﻁ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪.(٣٦‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﻤﻴﻜﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ )‪ VAR(1‬ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ‪ ، ± α‬ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺫﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺒﺎﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ) ‪.( β1 X 1 − µ‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺫﺏ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﺼﻔﺭﹰﺍ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻻ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻨﺩﻫﺎ ﺘﺤﺭﻜﹰﺎ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺘﺴﻤﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺼﻭﻓﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ) ‪Johansen and‬‬

‫‪:(Katarina, 2001‬‬

‫‪{ X β / X = µ } = α ( β /α ) −1 µ‬‬ ‫‪...........٣٨‬‬

‫‪t‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪ α ⊥/ ∑ ε i‬ﻴﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻌﻴﺩﹰﺍ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺫﺏ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻭﻟﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ‬
‫‪i =1‬‬

‫ﺴﻠﻭﻜﹰﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺤل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪ (٣٤‬ﻤﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺃﻭﻟﻴﺔ ﻟـ ‪ X0‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺔ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪t −1‬‬
‫‪X t = ( I n + αβ ) X 0 + ∑ ( I n + αβ / ) i (ε t −1 − αµ ) ...........٣٩‬‬
‫‪/ t‬‬

‫‪i =0‬‬
 ‫‪٧٥‬‬

‫ﻟﺘﻤﺜل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ α‬ﻭ ‪ β‬ﺘﻤﺜل ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ‪:‬‬

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‫ﻻ‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺫﺭ ﺍﻟﻭﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﻘﻴﺎﺱ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ) ‪The Unit Root‬‬
‫ﺃﻭ ﹰ‬
‫‪ ،(Test‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﺫﻜﺭ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻓﺈﻨﻪ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻠﺴﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺩﻴﻜﻲ‪ -‬ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ )‪ (ADF‬ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺫﻜﺭﻩ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼﻟﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﻁﺭﻴﻕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ‪ ،%٥‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (٢‬ﻗﻴﻡ )‪ (ADF‬ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺴﻭﺒﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٢‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ ـ ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ‬

‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬

‫א‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪ADF‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪ADF‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪ADF‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬ ‫‪ADF‬‬ ‫א‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-9.2‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-9.5‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.999‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.999‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪CPI‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-10.4‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-9.26‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.873‬‬ ‫‪-1.31‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪M2‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.018‬‬ ‫‪-4.1‬‬ ‫‪0.018‬‬ ‫‪-1.5‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.995‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪RGDP‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.7‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.5‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.467‬‬ ‫‪-2.2‬‬ ‫‪0.311‬‬ ‫‪-1.9‬‬ ‫‪REPO‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-6.8‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-6.9‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.418‬‬ ‫‪-2.3‬‬ ‫‪0.217‬‬ ‫‪-2.1‬‬ ‫‪WIND‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.4‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.4‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.382‬‬ ‫‪-2.4‬‬ ‫‪0.475‬‬ ‫‪-1.6‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.8‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.8‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.540‬‬ ‫‪-2.1‬‬ ‫‪0.577‬‬ ‫‪-1.4‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.004‬‬ ‫‪-0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.004‬‬ ‫‪-2.95‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.202‬‬ ‫‪-2.8‬‬ ‫‪0.178‬‬ ‫‪-2.3‬‬ ‫‪ADVA‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.002‬‬ ‫‪-3.2‬‬ ‫‪0.002‬‬ ‫‪-3.23‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.794‬‬ ‫‪-1.6‬‬ ‫‪0.687‬‬ ‫‪-1.2‬‬ ‫‪TIM‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.6‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-5.6‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.486‬‬ ‫‪-2.2‬‬ ‫‪0.389‬‬ ‫‪1.8‬‬ ‫‪INTR‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-6.0‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-7.7‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.980‬‬ ‫‪-0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.766‬‬ ‫‪-0.9‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-9.2‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-9.22‬‬ ‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ‬ ‫‪0.630‬‬ ‫‪-1.91‬‬ ‫‪0.070‬‬ ‫‪-2.8‬‬ ‫‪GRGDP‬‬
‫ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-6.9‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪-3.9‬‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪0.0٧2‬‬ ‫‪-3.1‬‬ ‫‪GM/P‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ :CPI‬ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :M2‬ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ : RGDP‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :WIND‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :INT‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :CD3‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪.‬‬
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‫‪ :CD6‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‬

‫‪ :AT‬ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻵﺠل‪.‬‬
‫‪ :GDP‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :GM/P‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ)ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻤﻘﺴﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ(‪.‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪ :INF‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺃﻟﻠﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :GDP‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :M/P‬ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ )ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ ﻤﻘﺴﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ(‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬
‫)‪) I(1‬ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭل(‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﻜﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻗل ﻤﻥ ‪ %٥‬ﺘﻜـﻭﻥ ﻤـﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺤﻴـﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀـﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺼﻔﺭﻴﺔ ﺘﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ )‪ ،(HAMILTON, 1994,‬ﻭﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫـﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ ﺒـﺄﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ )‪ (OLS‬ﻫﻭ ﺍﻗل ﺩﻗﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﺎﻨـﻪ ﻴﻤﻜـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻌﻠﻘﺔ ﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﺒﺘﻁﺒﻴـﻕ ﻁﺭﻴﻘـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺒﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺼﻐﺭﻯ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺩﻴﺔ )‪ (OLS‬ﻴﺸﻭﺒﻬﺎ ﺸﻲﺀ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺩﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻌﺘﺒـﺭ ﻫـﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻤﺒﺭﺭﹰﺍ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﺎﺤﺙ ﻹﺘﺒﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﺎﻟﻴﺏ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺃﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺜل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪.VAR‬‬

‫ﺜﺎﻨﻴﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬

‫ﺍﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ )‪ (Trace Test‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠـﺩﻭل ﺭﻗـﻡ )‪،(٣‬‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺒﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺎﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒـﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪.٣‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﻟـ ‪Eigenvalue‬‬ ‫ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـ ‪Trace‬‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫‪302.21‬‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬
‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.76‬‬ ‫‪221.88‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‬
‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪151.03‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﻋﻼﻗﺘﻴﻥ‬
‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.57‬‬ ‫‪93.68‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺜﻼﺙ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪51.98‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺃﺭﺒﻊ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.27‬‬ ‫‪24.41‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫‪0.34‬‬ ‫‪0.14‬‬ ‫‪9.24‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺴﺕ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪2.01‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻗل ﺴﺒﻊ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
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‫ﺜﺎﻟﺜ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﺫﻜﺭ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺠﺭﻴﻨﺠﺭ )‪ (Granger‬ﻟﻠﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟـﺸﺎﺌﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺴـﺘﻌﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺘﻪ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺃﺤﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺃﻭ‬

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‫ﺃﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻜﻼ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﻥ ﻴﺅﺜﺭﺍﻥ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺒﻌﻀﻬﻤﺎ‪ ،‬ﺃﻭ ﺃﻥ ﻻ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻨﻬﻤﺎ‪ .‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ)‪.(٤‬‬

‫‪١‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٤‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬ ‫‪F‬‬ ‫ﺍﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪22.0‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ RW‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GM/P‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪13.5‬‬ ‫‪ GM/P‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪RW‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪10.0‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ RW‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪17.8‬‬ ‫‪ GDP‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪RW‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪15.5‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ RW‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AINT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪68.9‬‬ ‫‪ INT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪RW‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.001‬‬ ‫‪8.4‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ RW‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪30.9‬‬ ‫‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪RW‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.018‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ RW‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪24.6‬‬ ‫‪ CD6‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪RW‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪28.6‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ RW‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪110.7‬‬ ‫‪ AT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪RW‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪32.9‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ RW‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INF‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪27.0‬‬ ‫‪ INF‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪RW‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.569‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GM/P‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪10.1‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GM/P‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪291.0‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GM/P‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INT‬‬ ‫‪0.032‬‬ ‫‪3.7‬‬ ‫‪ INT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GM/P‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪17.3‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GM/P‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪54.1‬‬ ‫‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GM/P‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪20.9‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GM/P‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪105.2‬‬ ‫‪ CD6‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GM/P‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪36.9‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GM/P‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪23.8‬‬ ‫‪ AT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GM/P‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.004‬‬ ‫‪6.2‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GM/P‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INFM‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪53.8‬‬ ‫‪ INF‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GM/P‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪19.3‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GDP‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪29.5‬‬ ‫‪ INT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GDP‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪18.6‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GDP‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪16.6‬‬ ‫‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GDP‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪17.1‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GDP‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪22.3‬‬ ‫‪ CD6‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GDP‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪20.4‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ GDP‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪57.3‬‬ ‫‪ AT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GDP‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪27.4‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪GDP‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INFM‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪151.4‬‬ ‫‪ INF‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪GDP‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪64.2‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ INT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪32.3‬‬ ‫‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INT‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪81.2‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ INT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪44.0‬‬ ‫‪ CD6‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INT‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪35.1‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ INT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪83.2‬‬ ‫‪ AT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INT‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.004‬‬ ‫‪6.2‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ INT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INFM‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪22.3‬‬ ‫‪ INF‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INT‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.002‬‬ ‫‪7.3‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪0.001‬‬ ‫‪8.7‬‬ ‫‪ CD6‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD3‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪65.2‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪122.0‬‬ ‫‪ AT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD3‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪10.6‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INFM‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪30.8‬‬ ‫‪ INF‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD3‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪72.3‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ CD3‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AT‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪152.6‬‬ ‫‪ AT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD6‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪11.4‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ CD6‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INFM‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪23.9‬‬ ‫‪ INF‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪CD6‬‬
‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪22.1‬‬ ‫ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ‪ AT‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪INFM‬‬ ‫‪0.000‬‬ ‫‪12.6‬‬ ‫‪ INF‬ﻴﺴﺒﺏ‪AT‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫‪Hodrick Filter‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬
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‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :RW‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :INT‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :CD3‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪.‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪ : CD‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :AT‬ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻵﺠل‪.‬‬
‫‪ :INF‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻘﺎﺱ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺭﻗﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﻴﻑ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺸﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :GDP‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :M/P‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺍﺴﻊ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻜﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻗل‬
‫ﻤﻥ ‪ %٥‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻫﻴﻥ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻨﻬﻤﺎ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻵﺨﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﺃﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻻ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻷﻭل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺩﻋﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺴﺒﺏ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺘﺴﺒﺏ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﺯﺯ ﻓﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻜﺄﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻴﺔ ﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﻋﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻬﺩﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻤﺜل‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺭﺍﺒﻌ ﹰﺎ‪ :‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻲ‪:٢‬‬

‫ﺘﻡ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ )‪ (VAR‬ﻭﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪Selection the Lag-‬‬

‫)‪(Length‬‬
‫ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ ﺃﻗل ﻗﻴﻤـﺔ ﻟــ )‪ (AIC‬ﻭﺴـﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ‬
‫)‪ (Schwartz’s Criterion)(SBC‬ﻭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ)‪ ،(٥‬ﺍﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻨﺘـﺎﺌﺞ‬
‫ﻫﺎﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺘﻴﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻴﻥ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻼ ﺨﻤﺱ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜـﻥ ﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻻ ﺘﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻡ ﺘـﺭﺠﻴﺢ ﻓﺘـﺭﺓ ﺘﺒـﺎﻁﺅ ﻤﺜﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻓﻀل ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٥‬ﺍﺨﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻲ‬

‫ﺃﻜﺎﻴﻙ‬ ‫ﺴﺸﻴﻭﺍﺭﺘﺯ‬ ‫ﻋﺪد ﻓﺘﺮات‬
‫‪AIC‬‬ ‫‪SC‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺒﺎﻃﺆ‬
‫‪25.98‬‬ ‫‪26.29‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪17.56‬‬ ‫‪20.37‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪10.56‬‬ ‫‪15.87‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪4.36‬‬ ‫‪12.16‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪10.52‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫*‪-38.17‬‬ ‫*‪-25.387‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ )‪Roots of Characteristic ) (VAR‬‬

‫‪:(Polynomial‬‬

‫ﻳﺸﺘﺮط هﺬ اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر ان ﻻ ﺗﺘﺠﺎوز اﻟﺠﺬور اﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج واﺣ ﺪ ﺻ ﺤﻴﺢ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﻭﻀﺤﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ)‪ ،(٦‬ﺍﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ )‪ (VAR‬ﻤـﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺫﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﻘﺔ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺼﺤﻴﺢ‪.‬‬

‫‪.‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫‪Hodrick Filter‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪.‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٦‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬

‫‪Root‬‬ ‫‪Modulus‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪0.991719 - 0.078801i‬‬ ‫‪0.994845‬‬
‫‪0.991719 + 0.078801i‬‬ ‫‪0.994845‬‬
‫‪-0.071432 - 0.865157i‬‬ ‫‪0.868101‬‬
‫‪-0.071432 + 0.865157i‬‬ ‫‪0.868101‬‬
‫‪0.712155 - 0.180217i‬‬ ‫‪0.734604‬‬
‫‪0.712155 + 0.180217i‬‬ ‫‪0.734604‬‬
‫‪0.426297 - 0.458251i‬‬ ‫‪0.625878‬‬
‫‪0.426297 + 0.458251i‬‬ ‫‪0.625878‬‬
‫‪0.625015‬‬ ‫‪0.625015‬‬
‫‪-0.606810‬‬ ‫‪0.606810‬‬
‫‪-0.198318 - 0.461178i‬‬ ‫‪0.502011‬‬
‫‪-0.198318 + 0.461178i‬‬ ‫‪0.502011‬‬
‫‪-0.259428 - 0.077402i‬‬ ‫‪0.270729‬‬
‫‪-0.259428 + 0.077402i‬‬ ‫‪0.270729‬‬
‫‪0.090729 - 0.140303i‬‬ ‫‪0.167083‬‬
‫‪0.090729 + 0.140303i‬‬ ‫‪0.167083‬‬

‫‪ .٢‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ )‪:(Variance Decomposition‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺃﺠل ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺭﻑ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻀﻴﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ VAR‬ﻴﺘﻡ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺘﻪ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﻌﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺠـﺩﻭل ﺭﻗـﻡ )‪،(٧‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%١٠٠‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌـﺩل‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ %١٩,٢‬ﻭ ‪%١٥,٣‬ﻭ ‪ %١٣,٢‬ﻭ‪ (%١٢,٨‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻀﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺈﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺒـﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤـﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﻓﺈﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻁﺒﻊ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻁﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻜﺒـﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺭﻴﻙ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﺨﺭ ﻤﺘﻤﺜل ﺒﺘﻤﺎﺜـل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻤﺭﻴﻜﻴﺎ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻻﺠﺭﺍﺀﺍﺕ ﻭﻫﺫ ﺍﻟﻨﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﻭﺼل ﻟﻬﺎ)‪.(Poddar, 2006‬‬
‫ﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٧‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪P-M‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT CD3 CD6 AT INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪100.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0 0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0 0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪95.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪3.1 0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0 0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪89.3‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪2.2‬‬ ‫‪7.8 0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0 0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪81.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪4.9‬‬ ‫‪12.9 0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0 0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪71.8‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪9.8‬‬ ‫‪17.2 0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.2 0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪61.1‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬ ‫‪15.8‬‬ ‫‪19.8 0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.8 0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪51.3‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪19.9‬‬ ‫‪20.4 0.2‬‬ ‫‪1.8 0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪42.7‬‬ ‫‪10.4‬‬ ‫‪20.0‬‬ ‫‪19.4 0.3‬‬ ‫‪3.0 0.9‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪35.2‬‬ ‫‪15.6‬‬ ‫‪17.0‬‬ ‫‪17.4 0.3‬‬ ‫‪4.3 2.5‬‬ ‫‪7.7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪29.0‬‬ ‫‪19.2‬‬ ‫‪13.7‬‬ ‫‪15.3 0.3‬‬ ‫‪5.1 4.5 12.8‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪:(٨‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪:‬‬
‫ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺍﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٢١‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٧٤,٦‬ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ )ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ( ﺜﻡ ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%١٠,٨‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪%٣٠,٢‬‬
‫ﻭ ‪ %٢٣,٦‬ﻭ ‪ (%٨,٢‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺇﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﺴﻴﻁ ﺴﻭﻑ‬
‫ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﻁﺎﺒﻕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﻁ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺩﻋﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ )‪ (Corridor System‬ﻜﺂﻟﻴﺔ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٨‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬

‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬

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‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪M-P‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪74.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪3.9‬‬ ‫‪21.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪62.8‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪11.0‬‬ ‫‪23.3‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪52.9‬‬ ‫‪3.7‬‬ ‫‪18.3‬‬ ‫‪24.9‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪43.7‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪27.3‬‬ ‫‪25.6‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪35.4‬‬ ‫‪2.1‬‬ ‫‪37.1‬‬ ‫‪24.9‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪28.9‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪43.7‬‬ ‫‪22.5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪23.8‬‬ ‫‪9.0‬‬ ‫‪42.2‬‬ ‫‪19.1‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪1.9‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪18.8‬‬ ‫‪18.7‬‬ ‫‪33.2‬‬ ‫‪14.8‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪8.1‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪14.1‬‬ ‫‪26.9‬‬ ‫‪25.3‬‬ ‫‪10.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪13.3‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪10.8‬‬ ‫‪30.2‬‬ ‫‪23.6‬‬ ‫‪7.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪8.2‬‬ ‫‪16.0‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪M-P‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪83.8‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪9.9‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪72.8‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪20.5‬‬ ‫‪2.4‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪62.7‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪8.2‬‬ ‫‪26.6‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪53.0‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪13.9‬‬ ‫‪30.3‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪43.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪20.9‬‬ ‫‪31.6‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪35.0‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬ ‫‪28.0‬‬ ‫‪30.8‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪1.8‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪1.7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪28.2‬‬ ‫‪2.3‬‬ ‫‪33.3‬‬ ‫‪28.8‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪23.2‬‬ ‫‪3.6‬‬ ‫‪35.6‬‬ ‫‪26.2‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪5.9‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪19.5‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪35.1‬‬ ‫‪23.6‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪1.8‬‬ ‫‪9.4‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪16.9‬‬ ‫‪6.3‬‬ ‫‪32.8‬‬ ‫‪21.4‬‬ ‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪13.4‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪M-P‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪81.2‬‬ ‫‪5.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪8.3‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪73.5‬‬ ‫‪3.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪20.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪63.9‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪27.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪54.4‬‬ ‫‪6.4‬‬ ‫‪6.7‬‬ ‫‪30.9‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪45.8‬‬ ‫‪8.4‬‬ ‫‪11.4‬‬ ‫‪31.2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪38.5‬‬ ‫‪10.1‬‬ ‫‪15.7‬‬ ‫‪29.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪2.2‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪33.0‬‬ ‫‪11.4‬‬ ‫‪18.4‬‬ ‫‪26.9‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪1.3‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪28.7‬‬ ‫‪12.6‬‬ ‫‪19.2‬‬ ‫‪24.2‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪3.9‬‬ ‫‪2.2‬‬ ‫‪8.9‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪25.3‬‬ ‫‪13.5‬‬ ‫‪18.6‬‬ ‫‪22.0‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪4.7‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪12.5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪22.7‬‬ ‫‪14.1‬‬ ‫‪17.5‬‬ ‫‪20.2‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪15.8‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪M-P‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪26.1‬‬ ‫‪31.0‬‬ ‫‪5.7‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪10.7‬‬ ‫‪26.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪31.6‬‬ ‫‪23.9‬‬ ‫‪8.0‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪8.5‬‬ ‫‪18.2‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪9.0‬‬ ‫‪31.2‬‬ ‫‪20.3‬‬ ‫‪9.7‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪6.5‬‬ ‫‪14.1‬‬ ‫‪8.5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪11.3‬‬ ‫‪30.1‬‬ ‫‪16.5‬‬ ‫‪11.9‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪12.8‬‬ ‫‪11.3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪12.3‬‬ ‫‪29.2‬‬ ‫‪12.6‬‬ ‫‪14.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪12.4‬‬ ‫‪13.1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪12.3‬‬ ‫‪29.0‬‬ ‫‪9.2‬‬ ‫‪17.1‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪12.3‬‬ ‫‪14.4‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪11.3‬‬ ‫‪29.6‬‬ ‫‪6.7‬‬ ‫‪18.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪12.3‬‬ ‫‪15.4‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪9.8‬‬ ‫‪31.0‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪18.9‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪12.4‬‬ ‫‪16.5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪8.1‬‬ ‫‪32.6‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪17.9‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪12.8‬‬ ‫‪17.7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪6.4‬‬ ‫‪33.9‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪16.1‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪6.3‬‬ ‫‪13.3‬‬ ‫‪19.0‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
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‫ﺏ‪ .‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪:‬‬

‫ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ ،(٨‬ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٥,١‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬

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‫)‪ (%٨٣,٨‬ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%١٦,٩‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ %٣٢,٨‬ﻭ‪ (%٢١,٤‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﻘﻭﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ( ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻼ ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻻﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺩﻋﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻁﻭل ﺍﺠ ﹰ‬
‫ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺠل ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﺍﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼﻼ ﺇﻟﻴﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻪ )‪ (Poddar, 2006‬ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺍﺠﺭﻴﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ‪ .‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‬
‫ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (٨‬ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٣,١‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫)‪ (%٨١,٢‬ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺜﻡ ﺘﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٢٢,٧‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪%٢٠,٢‬‬
‫ﻭ‪ %١٧,٥‬ﻭ ‪ (%١٤,١‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺘﻭﺍﻓﻘﻪ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺎ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻋﻼﻩ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻻﺘﺴﺎﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩ‪ .‬ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻵﺠل‬
‫ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (٨‬ﺒﺄﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻵﺠل ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٢٦,١‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ‬
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‫ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ %٣١‬ﻭ ‪ %٢٦,١‬ﻭ ‪ (%٥,٧ %١٠,٧‬ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻵﺠل ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‪ ،‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ ﻟﺘﺼل ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺏ ﺇﻟﻰ )‪%٤,٣‬‬
‫ﻭ ‪ %٣٣,٩‬ﻭ ‪ (%١٦,١ %٦,٣‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﻜﺒﺭ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻭﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ .(٩‬ﺤﻴﺙ‬
‫ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺒﺈﻨﻪ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٩٣,٨‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺯﺩﻴﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫)‪ (%١٢،%٣٦,١‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺘﺴﺎﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ )ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ(‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺍﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻁ ﻻﻴﺘﺤﻘﻕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻜﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻭﻗﺎﺕ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻴﻘﻭﻡ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺘﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻁﻠﺒﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻻﺘﺯﻴﺩ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﺭﻏﻭﺏ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺘﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺃﻥ ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل‬
‫ﻤﺘﻼﺸﻲ ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺇﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﺒﺸﻘﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﺴﺎﻫﻡ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺸﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻼﺯﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻤﻭﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺎﺭﻴﻊ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫)‪ (%٦٢,١‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻜﺎﻥ‬
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‫ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٣٧,٥‬ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﺘﻨﺎﻗﺹ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟﻰ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ (%٢٩,٤‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﻀﻌﻑ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﻟﻬﺎ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﻭﻴﻨﺒﺜﻕ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺠﺯ ﻤﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺍﻟﻘﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺠﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺹ ﻭﺘﺭﻜﺯ‬
‫ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻜﺒﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺩﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻭﻴﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .٩‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪P-M‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪6.2‬‬ ‫‪93.8‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪11.1‬‬ ‫‪86.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪13.9‬‬ ‫‪76.3‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1.9‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪2.4‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪14.0‬‬ ‫‪65.2‬‬ ‫‪10.2‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪13.1‬‬ ‫‪56.0‬‬ ‫‪18.5‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪12.6‬‬ ‫‪49.7‬‬ ‫‪24.7‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪12.7‬‬ ‫‪45.5‬‬ ‫‪28.9‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪12.9‬‬ ‫‪42.8‬‬ ‫‪32.0‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪12.9‬‬ ‫‪41.0‬‬ ‫‪34.4‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪4.2‬‬ ‫‪4.2‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪12.8‬‬ ‫‪39.7‬‬ ‫‪36.1‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪P-M‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪37.5‬‬ ‫‪62.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪44.2‬‬ ‫‪53.0‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪47.1‬‬ ‫‪45.2‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪3.6‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪1.8‬‬ ‫‪45.7‬‬ ‫‪41.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪5.7‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2.0‬‬ ‫‪41.4‬‬ ‫‪43.2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪6.6‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪1.7‬‬ ‫‪36.7‬‬ ‫‪48.1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪6.6‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪1.4‬‬ ‫‪33.4‬‬ ‫‪52.3‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪6.4‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪31.6‬‬ ‫‪55.1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪6.3‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪30.4‬‬ ‫‪57.0‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪1.1‬‬ ‫‪29.4‬‬ ‫‪58.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪5.8‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫‪ .٤‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨـﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺠـﺩﻭل ﺭﻗـﻡ‬
‫)‪ .(١٠‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺒﺈﻨﻪ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﺎﻥ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫)‪ (%٢١,٥‬ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺒﺅ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻨﻪ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻨﻔﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ‬
‫)‪ %٢٦,٢‬ﻭ‪ %١٨,٢‬ﻭ ‪ %١٥,٥‬ﻭ ‪ %٨,١‬ﻭ ‪ %٧,١‬ﻭ ‪ (%٣‬ﻴﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻭ ﻫـﺎﻤﺵ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗـﺭﺍﺽ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﺃﺨﻴﺭﺍ ﻤﻌـﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﺘﺼل ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺤـﻭﺍﻟﻲ )‪ %٢٤,٤‬ﻭ ‪ %٨,٣‬ﻭ ‪ %١٤,٣‬ﻭ ‪ %٤,٦‬ﻭ‬
‫‪ %١٦‬ﻭ ‪ (%١٤,٨‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺸﺭﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﺍﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻓﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺠل ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺠل ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻅﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻻﺒﺩ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﻴﺘﻁﺎﺒﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﺭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻴﺘﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻭﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻻﺒـﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﻴﺘﺎﺒﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻻﻭل ﺍﻨﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺩﻟﻴل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻘﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ) ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻁﻠـﺏ(‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻜﺱ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﻪ ﻓﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺇﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﺌﻌﹰﺎ ﻟﻼﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺎل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺽ ﻭﻤﺸﺘﺭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺹ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .١٠‬ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪P-M‬‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪INT‬‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪Period‬‬
‫‪26.2‬‬ ‫‪15.5‬‬ ‫‪7.1‬‬ ‫‪3.0‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪8.1‬‬ ‫‪18.2‬‬ ‫‪21.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪34.9‬‬ ‫‪11.0‬‬ ‫‪13.5‬‬ ‫‪7.3‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪5.8‬‬ ‫‪11.5‬‬ ‫‪15.6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪39.7‬‬ ‫‪9.8‬‬ ‫‪15.1‬‬ ‫‪9.0‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪8.7‬‬ ‫‪11.4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪42.2‬‬ ‫‪10.9‬‬ ‫‪14.6‬‬ ‫‪8.7‬‬ ‫‪3.9‬‬ ‫‪3.6‬‬ ‫‪7.4‬‬ ‫‪8.8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪42.7‬‬ ‫‪12.2‬‬ ‫‪14.7‬‬ ‫‪7.5‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪6.6‬‬ ‫‪7.2‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪41.6‬‬ ‫‪11.9‬‬ ‫‪16.3‬‬ ‫‪6.8‬‬ ‫‪8.3‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪6.3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪38.9‬‬ ‫‪10.5‬‬ ‫‪18.5‬‬ ‫‪8.0‬‬ ‫‪10.2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪5.7‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪34.8‬‬ ‫‪10.3‬‬ ‫‪19.2‬‬ ‫‪11.0‬‬ ‫‪11.2‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪5.7‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪29.7‬‬ ‫‪11.9‬‬ ‫‪17.9‬‬ ‫‪14.0‬‬ ‫‪11.0‬‬ ‫‪3.6‬‬ ‫‪6.5‬‬ ‫‪5.4‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪24.4‬‬ ‫‪14.3‬‬ ‫‪16.0‬‬ ‫‪14.8‬‬ ‫‪9.9‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪8.3‬‬ ‫‪7.6‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫ﻭﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭﻩ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﻬﻤﺘﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ‪ :‬ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠـﺔ ﻭﺤـﺩﻩ‬
‫ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻨﻴﺎ ﻟﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ ﻴﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻤﺭﺠﻌﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺫﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﻟﻴﻥ ﻴﺸﻜل ﺭﺒﺤﹰﺎ ﺼـﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﻠﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬
‫ﻭﺨﺎﻟﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ‪ ،‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺭﺒﺢ ﺍﻟﺨـﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ) ‪ (Risk Free Rate‬ﻗﺩ ﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤـﻥ ﻫﻨـﺎ‬
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‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﺘﺨﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘﺸﺩﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﺭﻓﻊ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻭﺘـﺴﺘﺠﻴﺏ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻨﺘﺠـﺔ ﺍﻟـﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﺘﻜﻠﻔـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺎﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﺘﻠﺠﺄ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺒﺈﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﻤﺼﺩﺭﹰﺍ ﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻟﻴﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﻬﺎ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺌﻨﻪ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺩﻴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺒﻌﺔ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻨﻜﻤﺎﺸﻴﺔ ﻫـﺫﺍ‬
‫ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺴﻭﻑ ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ ﺴـﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺘﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻟﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺜﻡ ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻀـﺭﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﻴﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻑ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﺒﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻻﺕ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻗﺒل ﺘـﺩﺨل ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺨﺎﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤـﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺭﻜـﻭﺩ ﺍﺴـﺭﻉ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻻﺒل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻁﻠـﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﺨل‪ .‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻗﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻀﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﻜﻤﺎﺸﻴﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺴﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻻﻤﺭ ﺍﻻﺨﺭ ﻓﻴﺘﻤﺜل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺤـﺎل ﺭﺒـﻁ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ ﺒﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺍﻻ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋـﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁـﺔ ﺍﻟﻤـﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻟﻠﺩﺨل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴـﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻭﺒـﺸﻜل ﺍﻜﺜـﺭ‬
‫ﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﻌﻠﻰ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺍﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺍﺘﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‬
‫ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺘﺸﺩﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﻭﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻡ ﺘﺴﺘﺠﻴﺏ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻟﺘﺩﺨل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺒﻴﻊ ﺍﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫـﺫﻩ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺼﻭل ﻋﻠﻴﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻓﺈﺫﺍ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺍﻴﺩﺍﻋﺎﺕ ﺍﻋﻠﻰ ﻤـﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﻲ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﻩ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻓﺄﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓﺎﺌﻀﺔ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٨٨‬‬

‫‪ .٣‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻴ‪‬ﻼﺤﻅ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١١‬ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤـﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴـﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ‬
‫ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻭﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜـل‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺍﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻟﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺴﺘﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺸـﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴـﺩﺍﻉ‬
‫ﻟﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﺃﺭﺒﻊ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻵﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭ ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺜﻡ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻀﺎﺅل‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺁﺠل ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒـﺸﻜل‬
‫ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻭﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺨﻤﺱ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻟﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺒﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻭﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺄﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺃﺴﺭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎﻟـﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ ﻤﻘﺎﺒـل ﺴـﺭﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻟﻠﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﻭﺠﺒﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺃﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻩ ﺍﻟﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٨٩‬‬

‫‪Response to Generalized One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E.‬‬

‫‪Response of INT to RWA‬‬ ‫‪Response of CD3A to RWA‬‬

‫‪.003‬‬ ‫‪.004‬‬

‫‪.003‬‬
‫‪.002‬‬

‫‪.002‬‬
‫‪.001‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪.001‬‬
‫‪.000‬‬
‫‪.000‬‬

‫‪-.001‬‬
‫‪-.001‬‬

‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫‪Response of CD6A to RWA‬‬ ‫‪Response of ATA to RWA‬‬

‫‪.005‬‬ ‫‪.0008‬‬

‫‪.004‬‬ ‫‪.0004‬‬

‫‪.003‬‬
‫‪.0000‬‬
‫‪.002‬‬
‫‪-.0004‬‬
‫‪.001‬‬
‫‪-.0008‬‬
‫‪.000‬‬

‫‪-.001‬‬ ‫‪-.0012‬‬

‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.0016‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .١١‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‬

‫‪ .١‬ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١٢‬ﻴ‪‬ﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‬
‫ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻹﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤـﺩ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﻁـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻭﺍﻴﻌﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴـﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤـﺩ‬
‫ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﻤـﻥ ﺜـﻡ ﺘﺘﻨـﺎﻗﺹ‬
‫ﻭﻻﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺒل ﺠﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘـﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻭﺘﺘﺸﺎﺒﻪ ﺍﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴـﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺈﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻨﻤـﻭ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻨﻤﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺘﻔﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔـﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻬـﺎﻤﺵ ﻴﻌﻨـﻲ‬
 ‫‪٩٠‬‬

‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺘﺭﺘﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﺨﺭ ﺍﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﻗﺩ ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ ﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻻﺠل ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻻﺩﺨﺎﺭ ﻭﻋﻠﻴـﺔ ﺍﻨﺨﻔـﺎﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻤﻭﺍل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺩﺓ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺨﻠﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻻﻨﺘﺎﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼل ﺇﻟﻴﻬـﺎ )‪(Poddar,2006‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺘﻪ ﺁﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

‫‪Response to Generalized One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E.‬‬

‫‪Response of GM_PA to RWA‬‬ ‫‪Response of GM_PA to INT‬‬ ‫‪Response of GM_PA to CD3A‬‬ ‫‪Response of GM_PA to CD6A‬‬
‫‪.004‬‬ ‫‪.004‬‬ ‫‪.004‬‬ ‫‪.004‬‬

‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬

‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬

‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬

‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫‪Response of GM_PA to ATA‬‬ ‫‪Response of GM_PA to INFMA‬‬ ‫‪Response of GRGDPA to RWA‬‬ ‫‪Response of GRGDPA to INT‬‬
‫‪.004‬‬ ‫‪.004‬‬ ‫‪.003‬‬ ‫‪.003‬‬

‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬
‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬
‫‪.001‬‬ ‫‪.001‬‬

‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬

‫‪-.001‬‬ ‫‪-.001‬‬
‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬
‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬

‫‪-.003‬‬ ‫‪-.003‬‬
‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬
‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫‪Response of GRGDPA to CD3A‬‬ ‫‪Response of GRGDPA to CD6A‬‬ ‫‪Response of GRGDPA to ATA‬‬ ‫‪Response of GRGDPA to INFMA‬‬
‫‪.003‬‬ ‫‪.003‬‬ ‫‪.003‬‬ ‫‪.003‬‬

‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬ ‫‪.002‬‬

‫‪.001‬‬ ‫‪.001‬‬ ‫‪.001‬‬ ‫‪.001‬‬

‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬ ‫‪.000‬‬

‫‪-.001‬‬ ‫‪-.001‬‬ ‫‪-.001‬‬ ‫‪-.001‬‬

‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬ ‫‪-.002‬‬

‫‪-.003‬‬ ‫‪-.003‬‬ ‫‪-.003‬‬ ‫‪-.003‬‬

‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬ ‫‪-.004‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .١٢‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‬
‫‪.٢‬ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١٣‬ﻴ‪‬ﻼﺤﻅ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻘـﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻭﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺍﻨﺤـﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴـﺎﺭﻱ‬
 ‫‪٩١‬‬

‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺤﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺯﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﺴﺘﺔ ﺍﺸﻬﺭ ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﻴﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﻴﺘﻔـﻕ ﻤـﻊ‬
‫ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗـﺔ‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ ﻟﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﺍﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ‬
‫ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺒﺎﻟﻤﻔﻬﻭﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻲ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘـﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﻜـﻭﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟﺏ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ ﻏﻴـﺭ‬
‫ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪Response to Generalized One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E.‬‬

‫‪Response of INFMA to RWA‬‬ ‫‪Response of INFMA to GM_PA‬‬ ‫‪Response of INFMA to GRGDPA‬‬

‫‪.0015‬‬ ‫‪.0015‬‬ ‫‪.0015‬‬

‫‪.0010‬‬ ‫‪.0010‬‬ ‫‪.0010‬‬

‫‪.0005‬‬ ‫‪.0005‬‬ ‫‪.0005‬‬

‫‪.0000‬‬ ‫‪.0000‬‬ ‫‪.0000‬‬

‫‪-.0005‬‬ ‫‪-.0005‬‬ ‫‪-.0005‬‬

‫‪-.0010‬‬ ‫‪-.0010‬‬ ‫‪-.0010‬‬

‫‪-.0015‬‬ ‫‪-.0015‬‬ ‫‪-.0015‬‬

‫‪-.0020‬‬ ‫‪-.0020‬‬ ‫‪-.0020‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫‪Response of INFMA to INT‬‬ ‫‪Response of INFMA to CD3A‬‬ ‫‪Response of INFMA to CD6A‬‬

‫‪.0015‬‬ ‫‪.0015‬‬ ‫‪.0015‬‬

‫‪.0010‬‬ ‫‪.0010‬‬ ‫‪.0010‬‬

‫‪.0005‬‬ ‫‪.0005‬‬ ‫‪.0005‬‬

‫‪.0000‬‬ ‫‪.0000‬‬ ‫‪.0000‬‬

‫‪-.0005‬‬ ‫‪-.0005‬‬ ‫‪-.0005‬‬

‫‪-.0010‬‬ ‫‪-.0010‬‬ ‫‪-.0010‬‬

‫‪-.0015‬‬ ‫‪-.0015‬‬ ‫‪-.0015‬‬

‫‪-.0020‬‬ ‫‪-.0020‬‬ ‫‪-.0020‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫‪Response of INFMA to ATA‬‬ ‫‪Response of INFMA to INFMA‬‬

‫‪.0015‬‬ ‫‪.0015‬‬

‫‪.0010‬‬ ‫‪.0010‬‬

‫‪.0005‬‬ ‫‪.0005‬‬

‫‪.0000‬‬ ‫‪.0000‬‬

‫‪-.0005‬‬ ‫‪-.0005‬‬

‫‪-.0010‬‬ ‫‪-.0010‬‬

‫‪-.0015‬‬ ‫‪-.0015‬‬

‫‪-.0020‬‬ ‫‪-.0020‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .١٣‬ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٩٢‬‬

‫ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺒﺎﻹﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻔﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻁ ﺍﻟﻀﺭﻭﺭﻱ ﻹﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ) ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻲ( ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴـﺔ‪ ،‬ﺃﻜﺜـﺭ ﺘﻌﻤﻴﻤـﺎﹰ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤـل‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻷﺩﻭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻷﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺤﺘﻭﻱ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻤﻬﻤﺔ ﻵﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺘﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤـﺸﺘﺭﻙ )‪Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Test‬‬

‫‪ .(Trace‬ﻭﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺒﺎﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (٣‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ‪ 5%‬ﻭﺘـﺸﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺩﺍﻋﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ‪ .،‬ﻭﻗﺩ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤـﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‪.‬‬

‫ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﺘﻀﺢ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﺸﺭ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١١‬ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻴﺔ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ً ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (٣‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﻓﻴﺸﺘﺭﻁ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﻘﻴﺎﺴﻲ ﺍﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺯﻴﺞ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪.١١‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬

‫*ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬ ‫‪INFM‬‬
‫‪AT‬‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫‪AT‬‬
‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫‪CD6‬‬
‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫‪CD3‬‬
‫‪INT‬‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫‪INT‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫‪GDP‬‬
‫‪M_P‬‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫‪M_P‬‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫ﻻﻴﻭﺠﺩ‬ ‫‪RW‬‬

‫*ﻴﻭﺠﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻥ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ Trace‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ‪.%5‬‬
 ‫‪٩٣‬‬

‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺀ ﻫﻭ ﺘﻭﻀﻴﺢ ﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﺩﻕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﺒﺈﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﻭﺒﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ ﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ )‪ (K=1‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﻜﺘﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺸﻜل‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪∆ x t − λ = α ( β / x t −1 − β 0 ) + ε ........٤١‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ) ‪ ( β / λ = 0 )،( Eβ / xt −1 = β 0 )،( E ∆ x t = λ‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺘﻌﺭﻴﻑ ) ‪ .( µ0 = λ − αβ0‬ﺃﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻭﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﺘﺘﻠﺨﺹ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪π = αβ‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬

‫‪........٤٢‬‬
‫≤ ‪ r‬ﻭﻋﻨﺩ ﻗﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺭﻗﻡ )‪(1‬‬ ‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺘﻴﻥ ﺍﺒﻌﺎﺩﻫﻤﺎ ‪ pxr‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪p‬‬ ‫‪α ،β‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ‬
‫ﻨﺤﺼل ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Moving Average‬ﻭﻴﺴﻤﻰ ﺍﻴﻀﹰﺎ )‪:( Common trend representation‬‬
‫‪t‬‬
‫‪x t = c ∑ ε t + λ t + c * ( L )(ε t + µ 0 ) ........٤٣‬‬
‫‪i −1‬‬

‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ (Reduced rank) C‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫_‬
‫‪C = β ⊥ (α β ⊥ ) α = α β ⊥ ........٤٤‬‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫⊥‬
‫‪−1‬‬ ‫‪/‬‬
‫⊥‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫⊥‬

‫_‬
‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ β ⊥ α ⊥ ، β ⊥ = β⊥ (α⊥/ β⊥ )−1‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺘﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻌﺎﻤﺩﺘﻴﻥ ﻭﻤﻜﻤﻠﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺘﻴﻥ ‪ α β‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﻁﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺘﻴﻥ )‪ (٤١‬ﻭ)‪ (٤٣‬ﻓﻲ ﺘﻔﺴﻴﺭ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺒﺈﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻊ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟـ) ‪ (attractor set‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻌﺭﻓﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ ) ‪ .( β / x = β 0‬ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﺩﺍﻴﺔ ﻨﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﺒﺸﻜل‬
‫ﻋﺎﻡ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ‪ X‬ﻜﺘﺎﻟﻲ ) ] ‪ ( xt/ = [mtr , ytr‬ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ‪ mtr‬ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭ ‪ytr‬‬

‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺈﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻭﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (4-4‬ﺭﺴﻡ ﻤﻘﻁﻌﻲ ‪mtr‬‬

‫ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ‪ ، ytr‬ﻭﻴﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﺨﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﻁﺭﻱ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ) ﺨﻁ ‪ 45‬ﺩﺭﺠﺔ( ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻋﻨﺩﻫﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﻴﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﺴﺎﻭﻱ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ)‪ (١٤‬ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺎﻁ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺨﻁ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻴﻡ ﻨﻘﺎﻁ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ )ﺃﻭﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ( ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻤﺜل ﻜﺘﺎﻟﻲ ) ‪( β / xt = mtr − ytr‬‬
‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﻁﺒﻊ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﻫﻲ ‪ mtr − ytr = β 0‬ﺘﻘﻴﺱ ﻤﻭﻗﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٩٤‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ‪ .١٤‬ﺍﻟﺭﺴﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻁﻌﻲ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺈﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‬

‫ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﺼﺒﺢ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ) ‪ ( β / xt − β 0 = mtr − ytr − β 0 ≠ 0‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟـ )‪ (Attractor Set‬ﻫﻲ ) ‪ ( mtr − ytr − β 0 = 0‬ﻭﺍﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺎﺀ‬
‫ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ‪ xt‬ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ‪ α‬ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻥ ﻴﺼل ﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﻋﻨﺩ‬
‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﻭﻴﻭﻀﺢ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١٥‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ) ‪Johansen and‬‬

‫‪:( 2001،Katarina‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .١٥‬ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻊ ﻓﻲ ] ‪ xt/ = [mtr , ytr‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﻭﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻤﺴﺎﺭﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﺒﻭﺍﺴﻁﺔ ﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ‬
‫)‪.(Coefficients‬‬
 ‫‪٩٥‬‬

‫ﻭﺘﻌﺘﻤﺩ ﺴﺭﻋﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ‪ α‬ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـ)‪(Attractor Set‬‬
‫ﻤﻘﺎﺴﺔ ﺒﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ‪. β / xt − β 0‬‬

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‫ﻋﻨﺩﻤﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﺘﺸﺎﺒﻬﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ] ‪ xt/ = [mtr , ytr‬ﻴﺴﺤﺏ‬
‫ﺒﺈﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ‪ α‬ﻭﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ‪mtr − ytr − β 0‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﺯﻋﺎﺠﺎﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ‪ ε t‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ‪ xt/‬ﻟﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﻭﻟﻜﻥ ﻴﺩﻭﺭ ﺤﻭﻟﻪ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺘﻨﺸﺄ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫∑ ⊥ ‪ ( α‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﺤﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟـ)‪ (Attractor Set‬ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ) ‪ε i‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬
‫‪t=i‬‬

‫ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻨﻤﺜﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫‪⎡ ∆ m rt ⎤ ⎡α 1 ⎤ r‬‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎡ λ1‬‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎡ ε 1, t‬‬

‫‪r‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪⎢ t ⎥ = ⎢ ⎥ mt − yt − β 0 + ⎢ ⎥ +‬‬ ‫)‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎦ ‪⎣⎢ ∆ y r ⎦⎥ ⎣α 2‬‬ ‫⎦ ‪⎣λ2‬‬ ‫⎦ ‪⎣ε 2 ,t‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻊ ﻓﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻤﺜﻴﻠﻬﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪⎡ m rt‬‬ ‫⎤‬ ‫‪⎡α‬‬ ‫⎤‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎡λ1‬‬ ‫‪⎡ε‬‬ ‫‪+ µ‬‬ ‫⎤‬
‫∑‬
‫‪1 ,t‬‬ ‫‪01‬‬
‫‪⎥α‬‬ ‫‪ε‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬
‫⎢ = ⎥‬ ‫⎢ ‪+‬‬ ‫‪⎥ t + C‬‬
‫‪/‬‬ ‫*‬
‫‪⎢ t‬‬ ‫⊥‬ ‫⎢) ‪(L‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎣α‬‬ ‫‪⎣λ 2 ⎦ t‬‬ ‫‪⎣ε‬‬ ‫‪+ µ‬‬
‫‪t=i‬‬ ‫‪i‬‬
‫‪⎢⎣ y r‬‬ ‫⎦⎥‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫⎦‬ ‫‪2 ,t‬‬ ‫‪02‬‬ ‫⎦‬

‫ﻭ ﺒﺎﻹﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻨﻔﺭﺽ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻨﻭﻋﻴﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ‬

‫‪ (u‬ﻭ‬
‫‪nom‬‬
‫ﻻﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﻩ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻤﺎ )‪ ،(autonomous empirical shocks‬ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﻤﻴﺔ ) ‪= α⊥/ ,1εt‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ) ‪ ( uReal = α⊥/ ,2εt‬ﻭﻜﻼﻫﻤﺎ ﻴ‪‬ﻘﺎﺱ ﻜﻤﺯﻴﺞ ﺨﻁﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ .VAR‬ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﻭﺼﻑ ﺍﻻﺘﺠﺎﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ )‪ (Common trend‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﻟﻴﺔ) ‪Johansen and‬‬

‫‪:(Katarina, 2001‬‬
 ‫‪٩٦‬‬

‫‪⎡ RW‬‬ ‫⎤‬ ‫‪⎡ d 11 d 12‬‬ ‫⎤‬ ‫‪⎡λ‬‬ ‫⎤‬

‫⎥ ‪⎢M − P‬‬ ‫‪⎢d d‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢λ‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ 21 22‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢ GDP‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ d 31 d 32‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢0‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎡⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎥ ⎢∑ u‬‬ ‫⎤‬
‫‪nom‬‬
‫‪⎢ INR‬‬ ‫‪⎥ = ⎢ d 41 d 42‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪⎢ CD 3‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ d 51 d 52‬‬ ‫⎢⎥‬ ‫⎢ ‪⎥ +‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢0‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫∑⎣ ⎥‬
‫‪Re al‬‬

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‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬
‫‪u‬‬ ‫⎦⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢ CD 6‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ d 61 d 62‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢0‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢ AT‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢d d‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢0‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ 71 72‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢⎣ INF‬‬ ‫⎦⎥‬ ‫‪⎣⎢ d 81 d 82‬‬ ‫⎥⎦‬ ‫‪⎣⎢ 0‬‬ ‫⎥⎦‬

‫‪α ⊥/ ∑t =i ε i‬‬
‫‪t‬‬

‫ﻭﺒﺈﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺤﻘﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺴﹰﺎ ﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﺍﺴﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻟﺫﻟﻙ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ )‪:(Johansen and Katarina, 2001‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡M − P‬‬ ‫‪⎡0‬‬ ‫‪d‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫⎤‬ ‫⎡‬ ‫⎤ ‪λ‬‬

‫‪⎢ GDP‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢0‬‬ ‫‪d‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥⎥ ‪λ‬‬
‫‪⎢ RW‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢d‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫‪31‬‬
‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢ INR‬‬ ‫‪⎥ = ⎢d‬‬ ‫‪41‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎡‬
‫⎢‬
‫∑‬ ‫‪u‬‬ ‫‪nom‬‬
‫⎤‬
‫⎢ ‪⎥ +‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢ CD 3‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢d‬‬ ‫‪51‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎣⎢‬ ‫∑‬ ‫‪u‬‬ ‫‪Re‬‬ ‫‪al‬‬
‫⎦⎥‬
‫⎢‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫‪CD‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢d‬‬ ‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥ ‪0‬‬
‫‪⎢ AT‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬
‫‪⎢d‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎥ ‪0‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪71‬‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢⎣ INF‬‬ ‫⎦⎥‬ ‫‪⎢d‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎣⎢‬ ‫⎦⎥ ‪0‬‬
‫⎣‬ ‫‪81‬‬ ‫⎦‬
‫__________________‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫⊥‪β‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﻨﺴﻴﻕ ﻤﻊ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺩﻓﻊ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻭﺼﻭﻓﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﻠﻰ‪ .‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻤﺜﻴل ﻗﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﺴﺤﺏ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟـ )‪ ( Moving Average‬ﺃﻭﺍﻟـ )‪ (Autoregressive Representation‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺎﺘﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻴﻘﺘﻴﻥ ﻭﺠﻬﻴﻥ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺈﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺨﻁﺄﻴﻥ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﻴﻥ )‪(Autonomous shocks‬‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﺴﻴﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻴﻬﻤﺎ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ) ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ (Trace‬ﻴﻤﻜﻥ ﺘﻤﺜﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻜﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ)‪:(Johansen and Katarina, 2001‬‬
 ‫‪٩٧‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡ ∆ M − P ⎤ ⎡α 11α 12α 13α 14α 15‬‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎡ λ1‬‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎡ ε 1, t‬‬

‫‪⎢ ∆ GDP ⎥ ⎢α α α α α ⎥ /‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢λ‬‬ ‫⎥ ⎢‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎥ ⎢ 21 22 23 24 25 ⎥ ⎡ β 1 xt −1 − β 0 ,1‬‬ ‫⎥‪⎢ 2‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ε 2 , t‬‬
‫‪⎢ ∆ RW ⎥ ⎢α 31α 32α 33α 34α 315 ⎥ ⎢ /‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ λ3‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ε‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎢ ⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫‪β‬‬
‫‪⎥ 2 t −1‬‬‫‪x‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪β‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪0,2‬‬ ‫⎥ ⎢‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ 3, t‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫∆‬ ‫‪INR‬‬ ‫‪α‬‬ ‫‪α‬‬ ‫‪α‬‬ ‫‪α‬‬ ‫‪α‬‬
‫‪⎥ = ⎢ 41 42 43 44 45 ⎥ β / x − β ⎥ +‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫‪⎢λ4 ⎥ +‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ε 4 , t‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪⎢ ∆ CD 3 ⎥ ⎢α α α α α ⎥ ⎢ 3 t −1‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪0 ,3‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ λ5‬‬ ‫⎥ ⎢‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎢ ⎥‬ ‫‪51 52 53 54 55‬‬
‫⎥ ‪⎥ ⎢β / x − β‬‬ ‫⎥ ⎢‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ε 5 , t‬‬
‫‪⎢ ∆ CD 6 ⎥ ⎢α 61α 62α 63α 64α 65 ⎥ ⎢ 4 t −1‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪0,4‬‬
‫⎥ ‪⎢λ6‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ε‬‬
‫‪⎢ ∆ AT‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎥ ⎢α α α α α ⎥ ⎢ β 5 xt −1 − β 0 , 5‬‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫⎥ ‪⎢λ‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ 6,t‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎣ ⎥ ‪⎥ ⎢ 71 72 73 74 75‬‬ ‫⎦‬ ‫⎥‪⎢ 7‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ε 7 , t‬‬
‫⎦⎥ ‪⎢⎣ ∆ INF ⎥⎦ ⎢⎣α 81α 82α 83α 84α 85‬‬ ‫⎦⎥ ‪⎢⎣ λ8‬‬ ‫⎥ ⎢‬
‫⎦⎥ ‪⎢⎣ε 8 , t‬‬

‫ﻭ ﺒﺎﻻﻋﺘﻤﺎﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺼﻴﻐﺔ ﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﻭﺼﻑ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ‬
‫ﺍﻨﺒﺜﺎﻗﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﺨﺭ ﻜﻤﺎﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪ M − P − GDP − β 0,1‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻤﻌﺩل‬ ‫)‬ ‫‪.١‬‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ‬ ‫‪(INR‬‬ ‫‪− RW − β 0 , 2 ) .٢‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ‪.‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪ CD3 − RW − β 0,3‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ‬ ‫)‬ ‫‪.٣‬‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺍﻨﻪ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺘﻜﻭﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ‬
‫ﻤﺴﺎﻭﻴﺔ ﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺴﻭﺍﺀ ﺍﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﻨﺎ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺃﻭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻨﺼل ﺍﻟﻰ ﻨﻔﺱ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ‬
‫ﺒﺈﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻥ‪.‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪ AT −CD6 − β0,4 .٤‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻋﻥ‬ ‫)‬
‫ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪٩٨‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻋﻥ‬ ‫‪(INF‬‬ ‫‪− AT − β 0 , 5 ) .٥‬‬
‫‪٣‬‬
‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬

‫⎤ ‪⎡∆M − P‬‬ ‫‪⎡ α 11 α 12 α 13 α 14 α 15‬‬ ‫⎤‬ ‫⎤ ‪⎡ λ1 ⎤ ⎡ ε 1,t‬‬

‫⎥ ‪⎢ ∆ GDP‬‬ ‫‪⎢α α α α α‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎢ λ ⎥ ⎢ε 2 ,t‬‬

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‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ 21 22 23 24 25‬‬ ‫⎢ ⎥ ‪⎥ ⎡ ( M − P − GDP ) t − 1 − β 0 ,1 ⎤ ⎢ 2‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎢ ∆ RW‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ α 31 α 32 α 33 α 34 α 315‬‬ ‫⎢⎥‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫‪λ3‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫‪ε‬‬ ‫⎥‬
‫⎥⎥ ‪⎥ ⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ε‬‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫‪3,t‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎢‬ ‫⎢⎥‬ ‫(‬ ‫‪INR‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪RW‬‬ ‫)‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪β‬‬ ‫‪0,2‬‬
‫‪⎢ ∆ INR‬‬ ‫‪⎥ = ⎢ α 41 α 42 α 43 α 44 α 45‬‬ ‫) ‪⎥ ⎢ ( CD 3 − RW‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎥ + ⎢ λ 4 ⎥ + ⎢ 4 ,t‬‬
‫⎥ ‪⎢ ∆ CD 3‬‬ ‫‪⎢α α α α α‬‬ ‫⎢⎥‬ ‫‪t −1 − β 0 ,3‬‬
‫⎥ ‪⎥ ⎢ λ 5 ⎥ ⎢ε 5 ,t‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ 51 52 53 54 55‬‬ ‫‪⎥ ⎢ ( AT − CD 6 ) t − 1 − β 0 , 4‬‬ ‫⎢ ⎥ ⎢ ⎥‬
‫⎢‬ ‫∆‬ ‫‪CD‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ α 61 α 62 α 63 α 64 α 65‬‬ ‫⎢⎥‬ ‫⎥⎥ ‪⎥ ⎢ λ 6 ⎥ ⎢ ε 6 , t‬‬
‫‪⎢ ∆ AT‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢α α α α α‬‬ ‫⎢⎣ ⎥‬ ‫(‬ ‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪AT‬‬ ‫)‬ ‫‪t −1‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪β‬‬ ‫‪0 ,5‬‬ ‫⎥ ‪⎦⎥ ⎢ λ 7 ⎥ ⎢ ε‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫‪⎢ 71 72 73 74 75‬‬ ‫⎥‬ ‫⎥ ⎢‬ ‫‪7 ,t‬‬
‫⎢‬ ‫⎥‬
‫‪⎣⎢ ∆ INF‬‬ ‫⎥⎦‬ ‫‪⎢⎣ α 81 α 82 α 83 α 84 α 85‬‬ ‫⎥⎦‬ ‫⎥⎦ ‪⎣⎢ λ 8 ⎦⎥ ⎣⎢ ε 8 , t‬‬

‫ﻭﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﺠﻪ ‪ α‬ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺴﻴﻁﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺠﻌﻠﻪ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ‪: α‬‬
‫ﻴﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١٢‬ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻤل ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﺒﺎﻟﺨﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﻴﺽ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻠﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺔ ﺫﺍﺕ ﺩﻻﻟﺔ ﺍﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩﹰﺍ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ ،T‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﺒﻴﻥ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﻨﺴﺘﻁﻴﻊ ﺍﻥ ﻨﺸﺘﻕ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪∆INF = 0.38( M − P − GDP ) t −1 + 0.005 ( INR − RW ) t −1 + 0.19 (CD 3 − RW ) t −1‬‬
‫‪−.04 ( AT − CD 6) t −1 + 0.23( INF − AT ) t −1 + ε t‬‬

‫ﻭﺘﻤﺜل ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺢ ﺍﻟﺨﻁﺄ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺀ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﻨﺠﺩ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ ٠،٣٨‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬

‫‪3‬‬
‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬
‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א א א א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬
‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫‪،‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬
‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫אא‬ ‫א א‬ ‫‪.‬‬ ‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א‬
‫א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א א א א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬
‫‪.‬‬ ‫א א‬ ‫א‬ ‫א‬
 ‫‪٩٩‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﻗﻠﻴل ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻴﺼل ﺍﻟﻰ‬
‫‪ ٠،٠٠٥‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﻟﻜﻨﻬﺎ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻜﺎﻥ ﻗﺭﻴﺒﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺤﺩﺍﺜﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻌﺎﻤل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻴﻀﹰﺎ ﺤﺩﺍﺜﺔ ﻤﺭﺍﻗﺒﺘﻪ ﻀﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺤﺩﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ‪ .١٢‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ‪α‬‬
‫‪0.01 -0.03‬‬ ‫‪-0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬
‫‪M-P‬‬
‫‪0.27 -0.79‬‬ ‫‪-4.99‬‬ ‫‪2.01‬‬ ‫‪-0.87‬‬
‫‪0.21 -0.12‬‬ ‫‪-0.19‬‬ ‫‪-0.93‬‬ ‫‪-0.49‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬
‫‪0.99 -0.56‬‬ ‫‪-0.89‬‬ ‫‪-4.34‬‬ ‫‪-2.27‬‬
‫‪-0.17 0.13‬‬ ‫‪-0.03‬‬ ‫‪-0.11‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬
‫‪RW‬‬
‫‪-1.62 1.23‬‬ ‫‪-0.29‬‬ ‫‪-1.02‬‬ ‫‪2.83‬‬
‫‪-0.14 0.00‬‬ ‫‪-0.67‬‬ ‫‪-0.11‬‬ ‫‪0.50‬‬
‫‪INR‬‬
‫‪-0.62 0.00‬‬ ‫‪-3.05‬‬ ‫‪-0.48‬‬ ‫‪2.28‬‬
‫‪-0.07 0.26‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪-0.09‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫‪CD3‬‬
‫‪-0.84 3.04‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪-1.09‬‬ ‫‪1.17‬‬
‫‪0.02 0.01‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪-0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬
‫‪CD6‬‬
‫‪0.24 0.13‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬ ‫‪-0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬
‫‪0.15 0.03‬‬ ‫‪-0.06‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪-0.09‬‬
‫‪AT‬‬
‫‪4.93 1.10‬‬ ‫‪-1.90‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪-2.94‬‬
‫‪0.38 0.005‬‬ ‫‪0.19‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬
‫‪INF‬‬
‫‪5.45 0.07‬‬ ‫‪2.83‬‬ ‫‪-0.54‬‬ ‫‪3.31‬‬

‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻻﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺍﺸﻬﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ ٠،١٩‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﺈﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺍﻥ ﺘﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺘﻬﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺇﻥ ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ ٠،٠٤‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺎﺱ‪ .‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻏﻴﺭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺈﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻴﺔ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻔﺽ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺍﺨﻴﺭﹰﺍ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ ٠،٢٣‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﺨﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺃﺼﺒﺤﺕ ﺘﻌﻁﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺩﺨﺭﻴﻥ ﺍﻗل ﻭﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺘﺄﺨﺫ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﺘﺭﻀﻴﻥ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻭﻴﻨﺠﻡ ﻋﻥ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻭﺍﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
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‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ⊥ ‪: β‬‬
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‫ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺌﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ⊥ ‪ β‬ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﺴﺎﺒﻘﹰﺎ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺩﻴل ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻌﻠﻤﺎﺕ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﺨﻁﺄ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺨﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ) ‪Endogenous‬‬

‫‪ (Variables‬ﻜﻤﺎ ﺍﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻁﻭل ﺨﻁ ﺍﻟـ) ‪Attractor‬‬

‫‪ (Set‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻟﻡ ﻴﻭﻀﻊ ﺃﻱ ﻗﻴﺩ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ‪ β‬ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﺔ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﻭﻋﺩﺩﻫﺎ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻌﺩﻡ ﺍﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﻥ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﺭﻨﺎﻤﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‪ ،‬ﺒﺎﻻﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺘﻭﻓﺭ ﺒﺩﺍﺌل ﺍﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﺘﺎﺤﺔ ﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﺍﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻭﺘﺴﺘﺨﺩﻡ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ⊥ ‪ β‬ﺩﺍﺨل ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﻋﻨﺩ ﺍﻟﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻜﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺘﺼﺤﻴﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺨﻁﺎﺀ ﻟﻠﻭﺼل ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ ،‬ﻭﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﻤﻜﻥ ﺍﻥ ﺘﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺍﻟﺼﺩﻤﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﻜﺎﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻔﻁ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﻭﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﺼﻴﺏ‬
‫ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻀﺭﻭﻑ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻁﺒﻴﻌﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .١٣‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻲ ⊥ ‪β‬‬

‫‪M-P‬‬ ‫‪-0.29‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪-0.22‬‬ ‫‪-0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪-0.31‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬

‫‪-3.81‬‬ ‫‪1.16‬‬ ‫‪2.84‬‬ ‫‪-4.62‬‬ ‫‪-1.17‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪-1.98‬‬ ‫‪-1.26‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪0.61‬‬ ‫‪-0.67‬‬ ‫‪-0.21‬‬ ‫‪-0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬ ‫‪-0.65‬‬ ‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪0.21‬‬
‫‪1.53‬‬ ‫‪-4.00‬‬ ‫‪-0.51‬‬ ‫‪-0.69‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫‪-1.14‬‬ ‫‪0.77‬‬ ‫‪1.19‬‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪-0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.14‬‬ ‫‪-0.47‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪0.36‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬
‫‪0.84‬‬ ‫‪0.26‬‬ ‫‪-1.49‬‬ ‫‪1.09‬‬ ‫‪-0.92‬‬ ‫‪2.44‬‬ ‫‪0.89‬‬ ‫‪1.99‬‬
‫‪INR‬‬ ‫‪-0.24‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪-0.12‬‬ ‫‪-0.53‬‬ ‫‪-1.04‬‬ ‫‪1.22‬‬ ‫‪-0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.13‬‬
‫‪-0.59‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪-0.28‬‬ ‫‪-2.04‬‬ ‫‪-0.98‬‬ ‫‪2.12‬‬ ‫‪-0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬
‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪-0.01‬‬ ‫‪-0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪-0.94‬‬ ‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.11‬‬
‫‪-0.07‬‬ ‫‪-0.75‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪2.72‬‬ ‫‪-2.25‬‬ ‫‪2.82‬‬ ‫‪-0.01‬‬ ‫‪1.56‬‬
‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪0.11‬‬ ‫‪-0.03‬‬ ‫‪-0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪-0.36‬‬ ‫‪-0.41‬‬ ‫‪0.72‬‬ ‫‪0.13‬‬ ‫‪-0.19‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪-0.05‬‬
‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪-0.18‬‬ ‫‪-0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪-0.07‬‬ ‫‪-0.40‬‬ ‫‪-0.02‬‬ ‫‪-0.59‬‬ ‫‪-0.11‬‬
‫‪-3.16‬‬ ‫‪-3.21‬‬ ‫‪4.76‬‬ ‫‪-1.95‬‬ ‫‪-2.62‬‬ ‫‪-0.29‬‬ ‫‪-4.95‬‬ ‫‪-4.43‬‬
‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪0.34‬‬ ‫‪-0.18‬‬ ‫‪-0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪-0.25‬‬ ‫‪-0.14‬‬ ‫‪-0.97‬‬ ‫‪-0.26‬‬
‫‪2.68‬‬ ‫‪-3.37‬‬ ‫‪-0.76‬‬ ‫‪1.27‬‬ ‫‪-0.73‬‬ ‫‪-0.77‬‬ ‫‪-3.66‬‬ ‫‪-4.55‬‬
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‫ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪:C‬‬

‫ﺤﺘﻲ ﻨﺘﻤﻜﻥ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﻜﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺠل ﺍﻟﻁﻭﻴل ﻭﻴﺘﻡ ﺍﻟﻭﺼﻭل ﺍﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻜﻤﺎ ﻫﻭ ﻤﻭﻀﺢ ﺴﺎﺒﻘ ﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ‬

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‫ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪ C‬ﺍﻟﻤﺒﻴﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ )‪ (١٤‬ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻜﻠﻲ ﺴﺎﻟﺏ‬
‫ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ) ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ( ﻭﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺍﺜﺭ ﻜﻠﻲ ﻤﻭﺠﺏ ﻭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻱ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﻤﺎ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻁﻲ ﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﺜﻘﻪ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺼل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻴﻪ ﻓﻲ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺘﻲ ﺍﻻﺠل ﺍﻟﻘﺼﻴﺭ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺠﺩﻭل ﺭﻗﻡ ‪ .١٤‬ﻤﺼﻔﻭﻓﺔ ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻜﻠﻲ ‪C‬‬

‫‪eps_ M-P eps_GDP eps_RW eps_INR eps_CD3 eps_CD6 eps_AT eps_INF‬‬
‫‪M-P‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0.53‬‬ ‫‪-0.17‬‬ ‫‪-0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.31‬‬ ‫‪-0.02‬‬
‫‪1.24‬‬ ‫‪0.32‬‬ ‫‪2.30‬‬ ‫‪-3.00‬‬ ‫‪-1.05‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪1.04‬‬ ‫‪-0.21‬‬
‫‪GDP‬‬ ‫‪-0.27‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.77‬‬ ‫‪-0.17‬‬ ‫‪-0.50‬‬ ‫‪-0.67‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫‪-0.09‬‬
‫‪-0.71‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬ ‫‪2.08‬‬ ‫‪-1.91‬‬ ‫‪-1.22‬‬ ‫‪-2.50‬‬ ‫‪1.68‬‬ ‫‪-0.57‬‬
‫‪RW‬‬ ‫‪1.26‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪-0.45‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.50‬‬ ‫‪1.10‬‬ ‫‪-1.14‬‬ ‫‪0.21‬‬
‫‪2.11‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪-0.80‬‬ ‫‪-0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫‪2.71‬‬ ‫‪-1.54‬‬ ‫‪0.91‬‬
‫‪INR‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪-1.03‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪-1.45‬‬ ‫‪0.24‬‬
‫‪1.59‬‬ ‫‪0.34‬‬ ‫‪-2.17‬‬ ‫‪1.28‬‬ ‫‪1.50‬‬ ‫‪2.05‬‬ ‫‪-2.33‬‬ ‫‪1.24‬‬
‫‪CD3‬‬ ‫‪1.33‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪-1.29‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪1.04‬‬ ‫‪1.20‬‬ ‫‪-2.01‬‬ ‫‪0.34‬‬
‫‪1.79‬‬ ‫‪0.38‬‬ ‫‪-1.84‬‬ ‫‪0.86‬‬ ‫‪1.34‬‬ ‫‪2.35‬‬ ‫‪-2.17‬‬ ‫‪1.17‬‬
‫‪CD6‬‬ ‫‪1.35‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪-1.17‬‬ ‫‪0.13‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬ ‫‪1.41‬‬ ‫‪-1.85‬‬ ‫‪0.29‬‬
‫‪1.73‬‬ ‫‪0.34‬‬ ‫‪-1.57‬‬ ‫‪0.71‬‬ ‫‪1.16‬‬ ‫‪2.64‬‬ ‫‪-1.90‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬
‫‪AT‬‬ ‫‪-0.71‬‬ ‫‪-0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.77‬‬ ‫‪-0.08‬‬ ‫‪-0.63‬‬ ‫‪-0.30‬‬ ‫‪1.22‬‬ ‫‪-0.24‬‬
‫‪-1.95‬‬ ‫‪-0.51‬‬ ‫‪2.23‬‬ ‫‪-0.93‬‬ ‫‪-1.66‬‬ ‫‪-1.19‬‬ ‫‪2.70‬‬ ‫‪-1.67‬‬
‫‪INF‬‬ ‫‪1.10‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪-1.12‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪-0.34‬‬ ‫‪-1.99‬‬ ‫‪0.46‬‬
‫‪1.75‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪-1.88‬‬ ‫‪0.39‬‬ ‫‪1.52‬‬ ‫‪-0.78‬‬ ‫‪-2.55‬‬ ‫‪1.89‬‬
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‫ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺱ‬
‫ﻤﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺘﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺼل ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻕ ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺩﻯ ﺇﻤﻜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ‬
‫ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺠﻴﻥ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﻴﻥ ﻫﻤﺎ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻏﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻘﻴﺩ )‪ (Vector Autoregressive‬ﻭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬

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‫ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل )‪ ،(Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺍﺴﺘﻬﺩﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺃﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺒﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻤﻜﻥ‬
‫ﺘﻠﺨﻴﺹ ﺃﻫﻡ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻭﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .١‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ ﺍﺘﻀﺢ ﺃﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴـﺔ ﻏﻴـﺭ ﻤـﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺒﻤﺴﺘﻭﻴﺎﺘﻬﺎ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺭﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﻫﻲ ﻤﺴﺘﻘﺭﺓ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺍﺨﺫ ﺍﻟﻔﺭﻕ ﺍﻷﻭل‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻟﺘﻅﻬﺭ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻜل ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻨﻤﻭ ﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻷﻭل ﻻ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﺒﻴﻨﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻲ ﻴﺴﺒﺏ ﺍﻷﻭل‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٣‬ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ ﻤﺘﻔﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻤﺎ ﺠﺎﺀ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴـﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘـﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﺭﺴـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺒﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺨﺼﻭﺹ ﻭﺘﺘﻠﺨﺹ ﺍﻫﻡ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﺯﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫• ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﺴـﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﻀﺭﻭﻑ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺇﺩﺍﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺴﺠﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻅﻬﺭ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠـﺔ ﻭﺍﺤـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻗﻭﻱ ﻹﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨـﻭﻙ‬
‫ﺇﺫ ﺍﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺒﺴﻴﻁ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻴﻨﻌﻜﺱ ﺒﺩﺭﺠﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺘﻁﺎﺒﻕ ﻜﺒﻴﺭ‬
‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻬﺩﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺇﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻠﻔﺭﻀﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﻭﻟـﻰ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﻫﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪١٠٣‬‬

‫ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻤﺘﺴﻘﺔ ﻤـﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻅﺭﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻗﻭﺓ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ )ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬
‫ﻼ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ( ﻭﺍﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻻﻁﻭل ﺍﺠ ﹰ‬
‫ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺜﺒﺎﺕ ﻟﻼﻁﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﺸﻐﻴﻠﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﺭﺽ ﻤﻥ ﻗﺒل ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪.‬‬

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‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ )ﺍﻟﻘﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻑ( ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌـﻊ‬
‫ﻵﺠل ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﻜﺒﺭ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ ﺘـﺩﺨل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﻔﺘﻭﺤﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨـﺏ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﻫـﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺍﺨﺭ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘـﻲ ﺍﺯﺩﻴـﺎﺩ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻌﺯﻯ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻭﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ) ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻻﻴﺩﺍﻉ(‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻴﺴﻭﻟﺔ ﻓـﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﻜل ﻤﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺒﺎﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﺒﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻴﻼﺤﻅ ﻀﻌﻑ ﺇﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺍﻟﻨـﺎﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒـﺭ ﻫـﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﻤﻨﻁﻘﻴﺔ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻭﺼﻠﺕ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻴﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺤﺴﺎﺴﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺜﻤﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﻋﻨﺩ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺘﺒﻴﻥ ﺃﻥ ﻫﻨﺎﻟﻙ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﻗﻭﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﺘﻔﻕ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺘﻤﺎﻤﹰﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻲ ﺘﻭﺼـﻠﺕ ﻟﻬـﺎ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻓﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﺍﻻﺠل ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺠل ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﻜﻤﺎ ﻭﺘﻡ ﺩﻋﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺨـﻼل ﺍﺴـﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﻭﺯﻴـﻊ ﺘـﺸﻭﻻﺴﻜﻲ ) ‪Cholaski‬‬

‫‪ (Decomposition‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻴﺘﻁﻠﺏ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺘﺭﺘﻴﺏ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ‪ ،VAR‬ﻭﺍﻟﺫﻱ‬

‫ﺍﻅﻬﺭ ﺘﻁﺎﺒﻕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺎﻤل‪.‬‬
‫• ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل‪:‬‬
‫ﺃﻅﻬﺭ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻟﺔ ﺍﻻﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻟﺭﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻔﻌل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﺒـﻴﻥ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻋﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺸﺭﺍﺀ ﻭﻨﺎﻓﺫﺓ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻟﻠﻴﻠﺔ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ‬
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‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺇﻴﺠﺎﺒﻲ ﻭﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻜل ﻤﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴـﺩﺍﻉ‬
‫ﺇﺴﺘﺤﻘﺎﻕ ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻟﻠﻴﻠـﺔ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﺴﺘﻤﺭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻷﺜﺭ ﻟﺤﻭﺍﻟﻲ ﺴﺘﺔ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻵﺠل ﺴﺘﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ‬
‫ﻭﺃﺭﺒﻊ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺸﻬﺎﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻵﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻭ ﻓﺘﺭﺘﻴﻥ ﻟﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ‬

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‫ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﺜﻡ ﻴﺒﺩﺃ ﺒﺎﻟﺘﻀﺎﺅل‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺈﺨﺘﻼﻑ ﺍﻷﺠل ﻟﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺃﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﺎﻥ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻨﻘﻁـﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴـﻁ ﺒﻤﻘـﺩﺍﺭﻩ‬
‫ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﻠﺒﻲ ﻭﻤﺒﺎﺸﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺨـﻼل ﺍﻟﺨﻤـﺱ‬
‫ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻟﻴﻌﻭﺩ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺎﻻﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻭ ‪‬ﻴﻔﺴﺭ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺒﺄﻥ ﺇﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠـﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﺃﺴﺭﻉ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ ﻭﺍﻟـﺴﻠﻑ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻟﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻭﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤـﺎﻟﻲ ﺇﻟـﻰ ﺃﺴـﻌﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﺈﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓـﻲ ﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﻤﻘـﺩﺍﺭﻩ‬
‫ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻴﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻋﻜﺴﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﺍﻟﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻓﻜﺎﻥ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻴﺠﺎﺒﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻘـﺭﻭﺽ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﺴﻠﻑ ﻭﺍﻟﻭﺩﺍﺌﻊ ﻵﺠل ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻴﺭﺠﻊ ﻻﻥ ﺍﻟﻁﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺘﺘﺄﺜﺭ ﺒﻬـﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌـﺩﺓ‬
‫ﺒﺸﻜل ﺍﻜﺒﺭ ﻭﺒﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻋﻜﺴﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﺴﺘﺠﺎﺒﺔ ﺭﺩﺓ ﻓﻌل ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻟﺼﺩﻤﺔ ﻋﺸﻭﺍﺌﻴﺔ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻫﺎ ﺇﻨﺤـﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴـﺎﺭﻱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ‪ .‬ﺤﻴﺙ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺸﻜل ﺒﺄﻥ ﺃﻱ ﺘﻐﻴﺭ ﻤﻔﺎﺠﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭﻩ ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﻴﺎﺭﻱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻭﺴـﺎﻟﺏ ﻋﻠـﻰ ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ‬
‫ﺒﺈﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎﺀ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺃﻨﻬﺎ ﺘﺅﺜﺭ ﺒﺸﻜل ﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﻭﻟﻰ ﻭﺍﻟﺜﺎﻨﻴﺔ ﻟﺘﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﻫﺫﻩ ﻴﺘﻔﻕ ﻤﻊ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ ﻭﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺘﺄﺜﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﻋﺭﺽ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻴﺘﻀﺢ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺴﻠﺒﻴﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻔﺘـﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﻤﺴﺔ ﻟﺘﺯﺩﺍﺩ ﺒﻌﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟﺏ ﻓﺯﻴﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﺼﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﻟﻠﻨﻘﻭﺩ ﺘﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﻋـﺭﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩ ﺍﻹﺴﻤﻲ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﺃﻜﺒﺭ ﻤﻥ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﺘـﺄﺜﻴﺭ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﺎﻟﺴﺎﻟﺏ‪ .‬ﺃﻤﺎ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻲ ﺍﻹﺠﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻜﺎﻨﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠـﺔ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫‪ .٤‬ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺴﻲ‪ ،‬ﺃﻅﻬﺭﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒـﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴـﺔ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻐﻴـﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺩﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻨﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ‪ Trace‬ﻭ‪ Eigenvalue‬ﻋﻨﺩ ﻤﺴﺘﻭﻯ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ‬
‫‪ 5%‬ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﺘﻐﻴﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻌﺘﺒﺭ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﺩﺍﻋﻤـﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻔﺭﻀﻴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ‪ .‬ﻭﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻘﺩﻴﺭ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺒﺨﻤﺱ ﻋﻼﻗﺎﺕ‪ .‬ﺒﻼﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺍﻟﻰ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ﻭﺠﻭﺩ ‪ ١٥‬ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺘﻜﺎﻤـل‬
‫ﺠﺯﺌﻴﺔ ﻭ ﺘﻡ ﺍﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻤﻬﺎ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﺠﺯﺌﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﺩﻴﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﻐﻴﺭ ﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻴﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻜﺎﻤل‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺘﺸﻴﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻟﺭﺌﻴﺱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻴﺯﻴﺩ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ ٠,٣٨‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺤﺎل ﺍﺭﺘﻔﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴـﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺤـﺩﺓ‪ ،‬ﺃﻤـﺎ‬
‫ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻓﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻹﻗﺭﺍﺽ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻭﻙ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻟﻤﻌـﺩﻻﺕ ﻓﺎﺌـﺩﺓ ﺍﻟـﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺘﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻌﺩل ﻗﻠﻴل ﻨﺴﺒﻴﹰﺎ ﻴﺼل ﺍﻟﻰ ‪ ٠,٠٠٥‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴـﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻭﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤﺼﺎﺌﻲ‪ .‬ﻜﺫﻟﻙ ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒـﻴﻥ ﺸـﻬﺩﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻹﺠل ﺜﻼﺜﺔ ﺃﺸﻬﺭ ﻋﻥ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻁ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁـﺔ ﺃﺴـﺎﺱ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻴﺅﺩﻱ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ ٠,١٩‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻬـﺎﻤﺵ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﺘﻭﻗﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻓﺈﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﻴﻌﻨـﻲ ﺯﻴـﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌـﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻋﻠﻴﺔ ﻴﺠﺏ ﺃﻥ ﺘﺘﺩﺨل ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻫﻨﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺨﻼل ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺩﻭﺍﺘﻬـﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺃﻤﺎ ﺇﻨﺤﺭﺍﻑ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻭ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺸﻬﺩﺍﺕ ﺍﻹﻴﺩﺍﻉ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺍﺯﻨﻲ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺨﻔﺽ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘـﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘـﺩﺍﺭ‬
‫‪ ٠,٠٤‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ‪ .‬ﻏﻴﺭ ﺃﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﻏﻴﺭﻤﻌﻨﻭﻴﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺤﻴﺔ ﺍﻻﺤـﺼﺎﺌﻴﺔ ‪ .‬ﻭﺃﺨﻴـﺭﹰﺍ‬
‫ﻓﺈﻥ ﺇﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻓـﻲ ﺍﻟـﺴﻭﻕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ﻨﻘﻁﺔ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻭﺍﺤﺩﺓ ﻴﻌﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺒﻤﻘﺩﺍﺭ ‪ ٠,٢٣‬ﻨﻘﻁﺔ‬
‫ﺃﺴﺎﺱ‪ ،‬ﻭﻴﻌﻜﺱ ﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻟﺘﻭﻗﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ ﻤـﻥ ﺠﺎﻨـﺏ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗـﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻌﻜﺴﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺠﺎﻨﺏ ﺃﺨﺭ‪..‬‬
‫‪ .٥‬ﺠﺎﺀﺕ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻤﺘﻔﻘﺔ ﻤﻊ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺎﺕ ﺍﻟـﺴﺎﺒﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﺘـﻲ ﻓـﻲ ﻨﻔـﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﻭﻀﻭﻉ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺏ‪ .‬ﺍﻟﺘﻭﺼﻴﺎﺕ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﻤﺎ ﺴﺒﻕ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺒﻤﺎ ﻴﻠﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫‪ .١‬ﺘﻌﺯﻴﺯﺘﻨﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﺴﻴﻁﺔ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻻﻫﺩﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻨﻬﺎﺌﻴﺔ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺘﺒﻨﻲ ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﻨﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻓﺫ‬
‫ﻜﺄﺩﺍﻩ ﻤﺴﺎﻨﺩﺓ ﻹﺩﺍﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﻀﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺴﻭﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺘﺠﺎﻭﺯ‬
‫ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺞ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﺍﻨﺒﺜﻠﻘﹰﺎ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻤﻌﺎﺩﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﺴﺘﺤﻭﺍﺫ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻤل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﺍﻻﻜﺒﺭ ﻓﻲ ﻤﻌﺩل ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﺜﺭ‬
‫ﺍﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﻗﺼﻴﺭﺓ ﻭﻁﻭﻴﻠﺔ ﺍﻻﺠل ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺜﻴﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻌﺩل ﻨﻤﻭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﻭﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٢‬ﻜﺈﺴﺘﺭﺍﺘﻴﺠﻴﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﺘﻭﺼﻲ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺒﺎﻻﺴﺘﻤﺭﺍﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻕ ﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺭﺒﻁ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺍﻷﻤﺭﻴﻜﻲ ﻤﻥ ﺍﺠل ﻀﺒﻁ ﺍﻟﺘﺫﺒﺫﺒﺎﺕ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﺎﺘﺠﺔ ﻋﻥ ﺘﺫﺒﺫﺏ‬
‫ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‪ .‬ﻓﺒﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﻭﺒﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻤﻤﺎ ﺃﺩﻯ‬
‫ﺇﻟﻰ ﺇﺤﺩﺍﺙ ﺃﺜﺎﺭ ﺘﻀﺨﻤﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ ﻴﺒﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﺍﻷﻜﺜﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﹰﺍ ﻭﻗﻭﻩ ﺒﺎﻹﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺃﻥ ﺜﻠﺜﻲ ﺘﺠﺎﺭﺓ ﺍﻷﺭﺩﻥ ﻫﻲ ﺒﺎﻟﺩﻭﻻﺭ‪ ،‬ﻭﺘﺠﺩﺭ ﺍﻻﺸﺎﺭﻩ ﻫﻨﺎ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻤﺅﺸﺭ ﺴﻌﺭ ﺍﻟﺼﺭﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺤﻘﻴﻘﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﺎل ﻴﺸﻴﺭ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺨﻼل ﺍﻟﺴﻨﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﻴﺭ ﻤﻤﺎ ﻴﻌﻨﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻲ ﻀﻭﺀ ﺍﻟﻌﺠﺯ ﺍﻟﻜﺒﻴﺭ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻤﻴﺯﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﺠﺎﺭﻱ ﻟﻸﺭﺩﻥ ﻫﻭ ﺃﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﻥ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻪ ﺍﻟﻔﻌﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﻤﻥ ﻫﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺤﺘﻰ ﺨﻴﺎﺭ ﺭﻓﻊ ﻗﻴﻤﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﻟﺘﻌﻭﻴﺽ ﺍﻨﺨﻔﺎﺽ ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺃﻤﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻷﺨﺭﻯ ﻟﻠﺴﻴﻁﺭﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺘﻔﺎﻉ ﺃﺴﻌﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﻭﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺴﻭﻑ ﻟﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺫﻭ ﺠﺩﻭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .٣‬ﻓﻲ ﺴﺒﻴل ﺍﻟﺘﻐﻠﺏ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺜﻠﺙ ﺍﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﻴل )‪ (Imposibal trinity‬ﻻﺒﺩ ﻤﻥ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﺎﻓﻅﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻫﺎﻤﺵ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺒﻴﻥ ﻤﻌﺩﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﻔﺎﺌﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﻴﺔ ﺒﻬﺩﻑ ﺠﻌل ﺍﻟﺩﻴﻨﺎﺭ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ ﺠﺎﺫﺏ‬
‫ﻜﻭﻋﺎﺀ ﺇﺩﺨﺎﺭﻱ ﻤﻘﺎﺒل ﺍﻟﻌﻤﻼﺕ ﺍﻻﺠﻨﺒﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺘﺭﻜﻴﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻥ ﻴﻜﻭﻥ ﺍﻟﻬﺎﻤﺵ ﻤﺘﺴﻊ ﺒﻌﺽ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺸﻲﺀ ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻹﻋﻁﺎﺀ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﻼﻟﻴﺔ ﺍﻜﺜﺭ ﻭﺨﺼﻭﺼﹰﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺤﺎل ﺍﻨﻌﻜﺎﺱ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺨﺎﺭﺠﻴﺔ ﺩﻭﻥ ﺘﻭﺍﻓﻘﻬﺎ ﻤﻊ ﺍﻻﻭﻀﺎﻉ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻴﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺤﻠﻴﺔ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪١٠٧‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﺭﺒﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺒﻨﻙ ﺍﻟﻤﺭﻜﺯﻱ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ )ﺃﻋﺩﺍﺩ ﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ(‪ ،‬ﻨﺸﺭﺍﺕ ﻭﺘﻘﺎﺭﻴﺭ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺩﻴﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺭﺸﺎ‪ ،(٢٠٠٣) ،‬ﺍﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻨﺸﺎﻁ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﺒﺈﺴﺘﺨﺩﺍﻡ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل‬
‫ﺍﻟﺴﻼﺴل ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻨﻴﺔ‪ .‬ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﻤﺅﺘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﻜﺭﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺩﻴﺭﻱ‪ ،‬ﻤﺤﻤﺩ ﺘﻴﺴﻴﺭ‪ ،(٢٠٠٤) ،‬ﺍﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﺩﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﻴﻥ ﺍﻟﺘﻀﺨﻡ ﻭﺍﻟﺒﻁﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪:‬ﺩﺭﺍﺴﺔ ﺘﻁﺒﻴﻘﻴﺔ ﻗﻴﺎﺴﻴﺔ )‪٢٠٠١-١٩٦٧‬ﻡ(‪ .‬ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪،‬‬
‫ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﻤﻁﺎﻟﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﻤﺄﻤﻭﻥ‪ ،(٢٠٠٤) ،‬ﺩﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﻴﺎﺴﺔ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻴﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺘﺤﻘﻴﻕ ﺍﻻﺴﻘﺭﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪، ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻬﻨﺩﺍﻭﻱ‪ ،‬ﺤﺎﺘﻡ ﻓﺎﻋﻭﺭ‪ ،(٢٠٠١) ،‬ﻤﻴﻜﺎﻨﻴﻜﻴﺔ ﺍﻨﺘﻘﺎل ﺍﻻﺜﺭ ﺍﻟﻨﻘﺩﻱ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻻﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺭﺴﺎﻟﺔ ﻤﺎﺠﺴﺘﻴﺭ ﻏﻴﺭ ﻤﻨﺸﻭﺭﺓ‪ ،‬ﺍﻟﺠﺎﻤﻌﺔ ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻨﻴﺔ‪، ،‬ﻋﻤﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﺍﻻﺭﺩﻥ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺍﺠﻊ ﺒﺎﻟﻠﻐﺔ ﺍﻻﻨﺠﻠﻴﺯﻴﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪Al-Mashat، Rania and Andreas Billmeier. (2007),The Monetary Transmission‬‬

‫‪Mechanism in Egypt. IMF working paper, WP/07/285.‬‬

‫‪Amato , Jeffery, Andrew Filardo, Gabriele Galati, Goetz von Peter and Feng Zhu.‬‬

‫‪(2006), Research on exchange rates and monetary policy: an overview Monetary‬‬

‫‪and Economic Department. BIS Working Papers, No 178‬‬

‫‪Bendini, Cristina, and Roco Masconi. (2000), New Tools for the Dynamic Analysis‬‬

‫‪of cointegrated VAR Models. from www.ecopro.polimi.it/home/Rocco.‬‬

 ١٠٨

Bleaney, Michael (2001), Exchange Rate Regimes and inflation persistence. IMF

staff papers, Vo..47, No.3.

Coats, warren ( 2006), Inflation Targeting in Transition Economics: the Case of The

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

Czech Republic. Czech National Bank and International monetary Fund. IMF

working paper, WP/06/240.

Cologni, Alessandro Cologni and Matteo Manera (2005), Oil Prices, Inflation and

Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries.

The Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Note di Lavoro Series Index, from

http://www.feem.it/Feem/Pub/Publications/WPapers/default.htm.

Debelle, Guy, paul Masson, and Miguel savastano, and sunil shrma. (1998), inflation

Targeting as a framework for monetary policy. IMF working paper,

WP/98/113.

Greene, William H (2003), Econometric Analysis. fifth edition.

Gujarati, Damodar N. (1995), Basic Econometrics, 3rd Ed. McGraw-Hill, Inc.

Ingves, Stefan (2004), From Fixed to Float: Operational Aspects of Moving Toward

Exchange Rate Flexibility, international monetary fund working paper. IMF

Working Paper, WP/04/657.

Johansen, sǾren and Katarina Juselius, (2001), Controlling inflation in cointegrated

Vector autoregress Model With an application to Use Data. EUI working paper

Eco NO.2001/2.

Johansen, soren and Rocco Mosconi and Bent Nielsen. (2000), cointegration

analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend.

Econometrics Journal, volume 3,PP.216-249.

 ١٠٩

Khan, Mohsen and Others (2002), Macroeconomic Management Programs and

Policies. IMF Institute of International Monetary Fund. IMF working paper,

wp/02/231.

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

Kuttner, Kenneth N. Kuttner and Patricia C. Mosser (2002), The Monetary

Transmission Mechanism: Some Answersand Further Questions. FRBNY

Economic Policy Review, May 2002.

Madigan, Brian F(1994),The Design of U.S Monetary policy: Targets, indicators,

and information variables, in Framwork for monetary stability, Washington,

international monetary fund. from http://www.imf.org.

McCallum, B.T. (1996). Inflation Targeting in Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the

United Kingdom, and in General. NBER Working Paper No. 5597.

Mishkin, F.S. 1995. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism.

Journal of Economic Perspectives 9, 3-10.

Mishkin, Frederics (2000), The Economics of Money, Banking and financial

Markets. sixth Edition.

Mishkin,Frederic (2003), the mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging,

Journal of Economic perspectives, Vol.17.NO.

Mishkin,Frederic (2006), The causes of inflation, NBER working paper No.w1453.

Morsink,James(2006). Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland. IMF Working Paper,

WP/06/262

Mosconi Rocco, and Francesca Monti. (2004) Optimal Control in Cointegrated

Linear. Journal of Econometrics 60 (1994) 203-233.
Orphanides, Athanasios, John C. Williams,(2006), Inflation Targeting under

Imperfect Knowledge, Working Paper, from.

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2006/wp06-14bk.pdf
 ١١٠

Osborn, Denise R and Marianne sensier. (2004), Modeling UK Inflation:

persistence, seasonality and monetary policy. centre for Growth and Business

cycle Research studies, university of Manchester, from

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

http://www.ses.man.ac.uk/cgbcr/discussi.htm.

Poddar, Tushar, Randa Sab, and Hsmik Khachatryan. (2006), The Monetary

Transmission Mechanism in Jordan. IMF working paper, wp/06/48.

Rahbek, Anders and Rocco Mosconl. (1999), cointegration rank inference with

stationary regressors in VAR models. Econometrics Journal (1999), volume

Z,PP 76-91.

Reinhart, Carmen M. & Kenneth S. Rogoff (2002), the modern history of exchange

rate arrangements, nber working paper series,Working Paper 8963 from

http://www.nber.org/papers/w8963

Romer, D David. (1996), Advanced macroeconomics. 2nd Ed, McGraw Hill, New

York.

Sedik, Tahsin Saadi- and Martin Petri (2006). To Smooth or Not to Smooth—The

Impact of Grants and Remittances on the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in

Jordan. IMF Working Paper, WP/06/257.

Shewhart and Samuels Wilks. (2004), Applied Econometric Time Series. second

edition.

SIBI Frédérique (2001), Optimal monetary policy in the area of the Euro: arbitrage

in inflation - output- interest rate adjustment. TEAM - Pôle Finance, Université

Paris I. 106-112, boulevard de l’Hôpital.

 ١١١

Villani, mattias, and anders, warne. (2003), monetary policy analysis in a small open

economy using Bayesian cointegrated structural VAR. European central bank,

working paper series, NO 296.

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

Walsh, Carl E.(2000), Monetary theory and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of

Technology. 2nd printing, 2000.

Wei, Willian W.S (1990), Time Series Analysis: University and Multivariate

Methods. Addison Wesley Publishing, 3rd Ed, Inc.New York, U.S.A.

 ١١٢

:‫ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺩﻴﻜﻲ ـ ﻓﻭﻟﺭ ﺍﻟﻤﻭﺴﻊ‬.١ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

‫ﺍﻟﻤﻼﺤﻕ‬

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

 ١١٥

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

 ١١٧

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

 ١١٩

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

 ١٢٢

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

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All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

‫ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺴﺒﺒﻴﺔ‬.٢ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 05/18/08 Time: 23:18
Sample: 1994Q1 2008Q4
Lags: 2

Null Hypothesis: Obs F-Statistic Probability

GM_PA does not Granger Cause RWA 53 21.9876 1.7E-07

RWA does not Granger Cause GM_PA 13.4836 2.3E-05

GRGDPA does not Granger Cause RWA 53 9.97290 0.00024

RWA does not Granger Cause GRGDPA 17.7709 1.7E-06

INT does not Granger Cause RWA 54 15.5201 6.0E-06

RWA does not Granger Cause INT 68.9359 5.7E-15

CD3A does not Granger Cause RWA 54 8.37922 0.00074

RWA does not Granger Cause CD3A 30.9408 2.0E-09

CD6A does not Granger Cause RWA 54 4.34546 0.01831

RWA does not Granger Cause CD6A 24.6487 3.9E-08

ATA does not Granger Cause RWA 52 28.6281 7.4E-09

RWA does not Granger Cause ATA 110.729 1.6E-18

INFMA does not Granger Cause RWA 53 32.9331 9.9E-10

RWA does not Granger Cause INFMA 27.0280 1.4E-08

GRGDPA does not Granger Cause GM_PA 53 0.57135 0.56855

GM_PA does not Granger Cause GRGDPA 10.1341 0.00021

INT does not Granger Cause GM_PA 53 290.972 1.5E-27

GM_PA does not Granger Cause INT 3.68883 0.03234

CD3A does not Granger Cause GM_PA 53 17.2752 2.2E-06

 ١٢٥

GM_PA does not Granger Cause CD3A 54.0780 5.1E-13

CD6A does not Granger Cause GM_PA 53 20.9157 2.9E-07

GM_PA does not Granger Cause CD6A 105.185 2.9E-18

ATA does not Granger Cause GM_PA 51 36.8546 2.8E-10

GM_PA does not Granger Cause ATA 23.7581 8.2E-08

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

INFMA does not Granger Cause GM_PA 53 6.21999 0.00396
GM_PA does not Granger Cause INFMA 53.8482 5.4E-13

INT does not Granger Cause GRGDPA 53 19.2521 7.3E-07

GRGDPA does not Granger Cause INT 29.5016 4.4E-09

CD3A does not Granger Cause GRGDPA 53 18.5580 1.1E-06

GRGDPA does not Granger Cause CD3A 16.5867 3.3E-06

CD6A does not Granger Cause GRGDPA 53 17.1131 2.5E-06

GRGDPA does not Granger Cause CD6A 22.3272 1.4E-07

ATA does not Granger Cause GRGDPA 51 20.4190 4.5E-07

GRGDPA does not Granger Cause ATA 57.3166 3.2E-13

INFMA does not Granger Cause GRGDPA 53 27.4029 1.2E-08

GRGDPA does not Granger Cause INFMA 151.391 1.9E-21

CD3A does not Granger Cause INT 54 64.1996 2.0E-14

INT does not Granger Cause CD3A 32.3068 1.1E-09

CD6A does not Granger Cause INT 54 81.2342 2.8E-16

INT does not Granger Cause CD6A 43.9638 1.2E-11

ATA does not Granger Cause INT 52 35.1374 4.7E-10

INT does not Granger Cause ATA 83.1799 3.6E-16

INFMA does not Granger Cause INT 53 6.22214 0.00396

INT does not Granger Cause INFMA 22.2970 1.4E-07

CD6A does not Granger Cause CD3A 54 7.26774 0.00172

CD3A does not Granger Cause CD6A 8.70064 0.00058

ATA does not Granger Cause CD3A 52 65.1649 2.8E-14

CD3A does not Granger Cause ATA 121.975 2.5E-19

INFMA does not Granger Cause CD3A 53 10.6261 0.00015

CD3A does not Granger Cause INFMA 30.7660 2.5E-09

ATA does not Granger Cause CD6A 52 72.2573 4.6E-15

CD6A does not Granger Cause ATA 152.606 2.8E-21

INFMA does not Granger Cause CD6A 53 11.3740 9.1E-05

CD6A does not Granger Cause INFMA 23.8925 6.3E-08

INFMA does not Granger Cause ATA 51 22.1017 1.9E-07

ATA does not Granger Cause INFMA 12.5994 4.3E-05
 ١٢٦

‫ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻓﺘﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻁﺅ‬.٣ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria

Endogenous variables: RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

Exogenous variables: C
Date: 02/12/08 Time: 20:01
Sample: 1994Q1 2007Q4
Included observations: 49
Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ

0 529.72 NA 7.80E-20 -21.2947 -20.9858 -21.1775

1 2278.794 2855.63 1.09E-49 -90.0732 -87.2934 -89.0186
2 2789.056 666.4653 1.64E-57 -108.288 -103.037 -106.296
3 3027.474 233.5522 2.43E-60 -115.407 -107.685 -112.478
4 3231.603 133.3089* 3.41e-62* -121.1267* -110.9340* -117.2596*
* indicates lag order selected by the criterion
LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level)
FPE: Final prediction error
AIC: Akaike information criterion
SC: Schwarz information criterion
HQ: Hannan-Quinn information criterion

‫ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﻟﺘﻜﺎﻤل ﺍﻟﻤﺸﺘﺭﻙ‬.٤ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

Date: 05/18/08 Time: 23:57

Sample (adjusted): 1995Q1 2007Q2
Included observations: 50 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: RWA GM_PA GRGDP INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 2
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.8100 302.2100 159.5297 0.000
At most 1 * 0.7600 221.8800 125.6154 0.000
At most 2 * 0.6900 151.0300 95.75366 0.000
At most 3 * 0.5700 93.6800 69.81889 0.000
At most 4 * 0.4300 51.9800 47.85613 0.020
At most 5 0.2700 24.4100 2.79707 0.180
At most 6 0.1400 9.2400 1.49471 0.340
At most 7 0.0400 2.0100 0.841466 0.160

Trace test indicates 5 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level

* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
 ١٢٧

(‫ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ ) ﺍﻟﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻭﻟﻲ‬.٥ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

Vector Autoregression Estimates

Date: 02/12/08 Time: 09:52
Sample (adjusted): 1994Q4 2007Q2

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

Included observations: 51 after adjustments
Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]

RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA

RWA(-1) 1.451774 0.538854 -0.180458 -0.461425 -0.670858 -0.701000 0.246103 -0.136843

(0.09341) (0.14137) (0.35964) (0.15667) (0.09044) (0.10210) (0.03084) (0.09420)
[ 15.5414] [ 3.81161] [-0.50178] [-2.94522] [-7.41739] [-6.86580] [ 7.97903] [-1.45264]
RWA(-2) -0.765536 -0.630582 0.621834 0.062343 0.313128 0.268285 -0.172019 0.356735
(0.06728) (0.10182) (0.25901) (0.11283) (0.06514) (0.07353) (0.02221) (0.06785)
[-11.3789] [-6.19328] [ 2.40078] [ 0.55252] [ 4.80711] [ 3.64847] [-7.74378] [ 5.25800]
GM_PA(-1) -0.019119 2.047322 0.771101 0.141284 0.248021 0.249502 -0.228896 -0.169898
(0.08847) (0.13389) (0.34059) (0.14837) (0.08566) (0.09669) (0.02921) (0.08922)
[-0.21612] [ 15.2915] [ 2.26399] [ 0.95222] [ 2.89558] [ 2.58032] [-7.83608] [-1.90435]
GM_PA(-2) 0.066398 -1.158315 -1.114240 0.119717 -0.131981 -0.029343 0.218507 0.060053
(0.10943) (0.16560) (0.42128) (0.18352) (0.10595) (0.11960) (0.03613) (0.11035)
[ 0.60679] [-6.99448] [-2.64488] [ 0.65232] [-1.24572] [-0.24534] [ 6.04770] [ 0.54420]
GRGDPA(-1) 0.005366 -0.029359 0.972139 -0.131096 -0.040682 0.001659 -0.059789 0.064822
(0.04643) (0.07027) (0.17876) (0.07787) (0.04496) (0.05075) (0.01533) (0.04682)
[ 0.11557] [-0.41781] [ 5.43830] [-1.68347] [-0.90494] [ 0.03268] [-3.89989] [ 1.38437]
GRGDPA(-2) 0.114233 0.255310 -0.516468 0.164807 0.171539 0.171337 -0.066721 -0.133462
(0.05887) (0.08909) (0.22663) (0.09873) (0.05699) (0.06434) (0.01944) (0.05936)
[ 1.94058] [ 2.86585] [-2.27891] [ 1.66932] [ 3.00975] [ 2.66300] [-3.43279] [-2.24822]
INT(-1) 0.670234 0.626768 0.608348 2.415829 1.026974 1.152670 -0.170715 -0.697697
(0.14845) (0.22466) (0.57151) (0.24897) (0.14373) (0.16225) (0.04902) (0.14970)
[ 4.51498] [ 2.78985] [ 1.06445] [ 9.70331] [ 7.14524] [ 7.10419] [-3.48291] [-4.66055]
INT(-2) -0.715935 -0.416214 -0.576638 -1.425746 -0.994423 -1.074524 0.143473 0.504567
(0.12975) (0.19637) (0.49954) (0.21761) (0.12563) (0.14182) (0.04284) (0.13085)
[-5.51774] [-2.11958] [-1.15435] [-6.55171] [-7.91566] [-7.57677] [ 3.34888] [ 3.85609]
CD3A(-1) -0.122879 -1.499619 -1.461714 -0.336922 2.008721 0.249890 -0.429514 1.134473
(0.29165) (0.44138) (1.12282) (0.48914) (0.28238) (0.31877) (0.09630) (0.29411)
[-0.42133] [-3.39758] [-1.30182] [-0.68881] [ 7.11363] [ 0.78392] [-4.46028] [ 3.85726]
CD3A(-2) 0.931245 1.940662 0.372382 1.289810 0.048387 1.388965 0.379473 -1.917514
(0.37167) (0.56248) (1.43090) (0.62334) (0.35985) (0.40623) (0.12272) (0.37481)
[ 2.50560] [ 3.45019] [ 0.26024] [ 2.06918] [ 0.13446] [ 3.41916] [ 3.09222] [-5.11596]
CD6A(-1) -0.096149 0.450207 0.894877 0.014693 -0.363796 1.122810 0.075353 -0.168932
(0.18611) (0.28166) (0.71652) (0.31214) (0.18020) (0.20342) (0.06145) (0.18769)
[-0.51662] [ 1.59839] [ 1.24892] [ 0.04707] [-2.01889] [ 5.51966] [ 1.22622] [-0.90007]
CD6A(-2) -0.433169 -0.653296 -0.431561 -0.649810 -0.362006 -1.346677 -0.165396 0.698213
(0.20081) (0.30390) (0.77310) (0.33679) (0.19443) (0.21948) (0.06630) (0.20251)
[-2.15712] [-2.14968] [-0.55822] [-1.92943] [-1.86192] [-6.13565] [-2.49450] [ 3.44783]
ATA(-1) 0.113724 -0.422633 -2.189961 0.511760 0.311512 -0.091783 1.079032 0.360204
(0.36504) (0.55246) (1.40541) (0.61224) (0.35344) (0.39899) (0.12053) (0.36813)
[ 0.31153] [-0.76500] [-1.55824] [ 0.83588] [ 0.88137] [-0.23004] [ 8.95220] [ 0.97846]
ATA(-2) -0.197600 1.118907 1.692670 -0.619525 -0.267631 0.160564 -0.331241 -0.748770
(0.28790) (0.43571) (1.10841) (0.48286) (0.27875) (0.31468) (0.09506) (0.29034)
 ١٢٨

[-0.68635] [ 2.56801] [ 1.52712] [-1.28304] [-0.96011] [ 0.51025] [-3.48451] [-2.57897]

INFMA(-1) -0.017185 0.607164 0.772265 0.195541 0.212195 0.081206 -0.413065 1.333543
(0.18629) (0.28193) (0.71719) (0.31243) (0.18036) (0.20361) (0.06151) (0.18786)
[-0.09225] [ 2.15363] [ 1.07679] [ 0.62587] [ 1.17648] [ 0.39883] [-6.71552] [ 7.09852]
INFMA(-2) -0.192221 -0.255662 -1.189036 -0.238140 -0.327150 -0.290934 0.170961 -0.511762
(0.21356) (0.32320) (0.82219) (0.35817) (0.20677) (0.23342) (0.07051) (0.21537)

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[-0.90008] [-0.79103] [-1.44618] [-0.66487] [-1.58218] [-1.24640] [ 2.42449] [-2.37624]
C 0.929797 -5.410422 4.695732 0.825677 -0.206192 -0.575380 2.077826 3.135727
(1.00206) (1.51652) (3.85789) (1.68062) (0.97021) (1.09525) (0.33087) (1.01054)
[ 0.92788] [-3.56765] [ 1.21718] [ 0.49129] [-0.21252] [-0.52534] [ 6.27995] [ 3.10302]

R-squared 1.000000 0.999999 0.999985 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.999999

Adj. R-squared 1.000000 0.999998 0.999978 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 1.000000 0.999998
Sum sq. resids 6.91E-06 1.58E-05 0.000102 1.94E-05 6.48E-06 8.26E-06 7.54E-07 7.03E-06
S.E. equation 0.000451 0.000682 0.001736 0.000756 0.000437 0.000493 0.000149 0.000455
F-statistic 20559744 1897087. 138939.4 14247352 45439649 36744838 1.08E+08 2007627.
Log likelihood 330.8836 309.7512 262.1325 304.5113 332.5310 326.3484 387.3967 330.4539
Akaike AIC -12.30916 -11.48044 -9.613040 -11.27495 -12.37376 -12.13131 -14.52536 -12.29231
Schwarz SC -11.66522 -10.83650 -8.969098 -10.63101 -11.72982 -11.48737 -13.88142 -11.64837
Mean dependent 5.912170 1.532676 1.566978 5.141264 5.923025 6.276702 4.435763 0.761586
S.D. dependent 1.156716 0.531761 0.366091 1.614956 1.664975 1.690192 0.875803 0.364518

Determinant resid covariance (dof

adj.) 3.76E-58
Determinant resid covariance 1.47E-59
Log likelihood 2875.547
Akaike information criterion -107.4332
Schwarz criterion -102.2817
 ١٢٩

Roots of ) ‫ ﺍﺨﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺍﺴﺘﻘﺭﺍﺭﻴﺔ ﻨﺘﺎﺌﺞ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ ﺍﻻﻨﺤﺩﺍﺭ ﺍﻟﺫﺍﺘﻲ‬.٦ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

(Characteristic Polynomial

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Inverse Roots of AR Characteristic Polynomial
1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
 ١٣٠

‫ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﻜﻭﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺒﺎﻴﻥ‬.٧ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

Variance Decomposition of RWA:

Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA

1 0.000451 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000

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2 0.001124 95.56949 0.382886 0.874779 3.132827 0.027566 2.41E-05 0.011388 0.001042
3 0.001936 89.33183 0.399749 2.226495 7.849027 0.016042 0.002042 0.128159 0.046659
4 0.002773 81.53019 0.198490 4.922592 12.86573 0.014087 0.042850 0.292320 0.133740
5 0.003585 71.76254 0.448086 9.819495 17.18659 0.060612 0.247068 0.343058 0.132544
6 0.004360 61.14429 1.952347 15.80283 19.80359 0.139996 0.786233 0.249506 0.121211
7 0.005092 51.30660 5.331891 19.87217 20.43460 0.211788 1.753003 0.282029 0.807916
8 0.005799 42.73808 10.39813 19.97260 19.42838 0.255814 3.031605 0.927350 3.248039
9 0.006532 35.22919 15.64173 17.02391 17.43191 0.281160 4.264680 2.457180 7.670245
10 0.007302 28.98647 19.22377 13.66722 15.33438 0.318433 5.112387 4.535035 12.82231

Variance Decomposition of GM_PA:

Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA
1 0.000682 6.207997 93.79200 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.001468 11.06680 86.04307 0.003405 0.081918 0.831696 0.169172 1.042095 0.761843
3 0.002466 13.88322 76.31354 2.495683 0.036637 1.941914 0.367070 2.368803 2.593128
4 0.003717 13.96725 65.19511 10.18461 0.034615 2.534936 0.469312 3.340136 4.274022
5 0.005070 13.12915 55.97003 18.52150 0.070926 2.716359 0.485181 3.973409 5.133452
6 0.006259 12.64943 49.66586 24.66964 0.093571 2.789313 0.449829 4.372510 5.309841
7 0.007134 12.65918 45.54195 28.90062 0.094646 2.859942 0.390289 4.519355 5.034019
8 0.007706 12.85441 42.81293 32.02223 0.085069 2.917091 0.337458 4.419455 4.551361
9 0.008058 12.92872 40.98054 34.41114 0.078300 2.934159 0.312826 4.192580 4.161739
10 0.008270 12.78320 39.74462 36.10172 0.081409 2.913200 0.312659 3.991173 4.072013
Variance Decomposition of GRGDPA:
Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA
1 0.001736 0.458564 37.46480 62.07664 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.002852 0.675446 44.19176 52.97472 0.290483 0.103927 0.205806 1.231216 0.326637
3 0.003553 1.206736 47.06659 45.18819 0.584589 0.459695 0.491329 3.586657 1.416221
4 0.004132 1.827380 45.70052 41.51209 0.541461 1.033524 0.605072 5.680080 3.099869
5 0.004791 2.001237 41.43043 43.18822 0.406086 1.494371 0.542916 6.612599 4.324140
6 0.005539 1.732182 36.65903 48.05283 0.384011 1.640150 0.434425 6.635556 4.461820
7 0.006206 1.432173 33.39414 52.32664 0.412318 1.618300 0.354887 6.440589 4.020949
8 0.006714 1.243747 31.57966 55.07484 0.431201 1.570161 0.306438 6.261351 3.532604
9 0.007127 1.143304 30.44440 56.99092 0.430522 1.525447 0.273793 6.049501 3.142111
10 0.007539 1.114655 29.43456 58.73348 0.412335 1.475166 0.247498 5.773532 2.808769
Variance Decomposition of INT:
Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA
1 0.000756 74.55244 0.636031 3.851598 20.95993 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.001726 62.84584 2.739110 10.95879 23.33873 0.060333 2.27E-05 3.79E-05 0.057146
3 0.002734 52.93654 3.664647 18.32964 24.89605 0.077086 0.000275 0.047719 0.048039
4 0.003621 43.71292 3.106870 27.28978 25.63333 0.061488 0.027540 0.133852 0.034212
5 0.004352 35.42213 2.149882 37.09055 24.86128 0.046369 0.218036 0.128834 0.082924
6 0.004953 28.90551 3.234543 43.68782 22.51758 0.043404 0.800789 0.154461 0.655894
7 0.005513 23.82065 8.992885 42.20876 19.05021 0.081570 1.865438 0.909762 3.070730
8 0.006258 18.84263 18.74515 33.21839 14.82236 0.206550 2.977266 3.109413 8.078239
 ١٣١

9 0.007393 14.07805 26.86529 25.30054 10.64994 0.370059 3.424082 6.011706 13.30032

10 0.008832 10.81419 30.23661 23.59917 7.484530 0.464529 3.212314 8.175700 16.01295
Variance Decomposition of CD3A:
Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA
1 0.000437 83.80141 1.094499 0.085218 9.900843 5.118027 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.001258 72.82152 0.273700 3.807610 20.45718 2.372705 0.121390 0.019159 0.126737

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3 0.002412 62.74373 0.180131 8.245711 26.62990 1.601211 0.320450 0.008304 0.270563
4 0.003781 53.01607 0.322833 13.88920 30.30099 1.346071 0.643980 0.004554 0.476312
5 0.005267 43.50834 0.699251 20.89573 31.61005 1.250434 1.138318 0.015412 0.882465
6 0.006771 35.01804 1.352348 27.96854 30.84596 1.195398 1.809294 0.089418 1.721005
7 0.008180 28.21753 2.330238 33.25775 28.78374 1.147686 2.631256 0.327588 3.304217
8 0.009398 23.15215 3.617181 35.61931 26.20906 1.107943 3.544856 0.856974 5.892530
9 0.010401 19.49000 5.031708 35.11681 23.64242 1.086090 4.439356 1.755776 9.437845
10 0.011214 16.88146 6.251851 32.82010 21.40302 1.096919 5.181332 2.954734 13.41059

Variance Decomposition of CD6A:

Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA
1 0.000493 81.24179 5.352946 0.400447 8.295445 1.629119 3.080254 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.001340 73.47401 3.645537 0.849799 20.48377 0.709579 0.792189 0.028762 0.016353
3 0.002531 63.91842 4.532091 3.066372 27.57789 0.527878 0.234143 0.033043 0.110165
4 0.004000 54.44481 6.422688 6.690417 30.91221 0.490882 0.491113 0.083954 0.463922
5 0.005677 45.75109 8.399494 11.38126 31.16706 0.455674 1.222658 0.262864 1.359894
6 0.007438 38.54102 10.06277 15.72383 29.42389 0.396995 2.152985 0.649415 3.049090
7 0.009117 32.95962 11.43301 18.41496 26.85706 0.333451 3.095164 1.284677 5.622070
8 0.010568 28.67115 12.57959 19.19003 24.24503 0.284386 3.949753 2.161109 8.918950
9 0.011723 25.29884 13.47092 18.62191 21.97803 0.258323 4.661203 3.205378 12.50540
10 0.012584 22.66255 14.05848 17.49102 20.22270 0.262163 5.206523 4.282795 15.81378

Variance Decomposition of ATA:

Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA

1 0.000149 0.057747 26.12226 30.96992 5.685942 0.326602 10.69029 26.14724 0.000000

2 0.000420 4.835157 31.61041 23.89477 7.954466 0.727603 8.515468 18.16365 4.298483
3 0.000871 8.951635 31.24218 20.25129 9.673303 0.693187 6.519442 14.12376 8.545198
4 0.001451 11.26162 30.05725 16.49186 11.94601 0.637944 5.573534 12.75766 11.27412
5 0.002094 12.31887 29.18872 12.55394 14.61365 0.628835 5.212405 12.38603 13.09754
6 0.002764 12.29179 28.97797 9.163646 17.06724 0.653310 5.165978 12.29557 14.38450
7 0.003452 11.34149 29.59688 6.697158 18.63733 0.686926 5.322573 12.29912 15.41854
8 0.004167 9.799481 30.95087 5.110997 18.91833 0.704583 5.618540 12.43740 16.45980
9 0.004922 8.064862 32.58650 4.291963 17.94272 0.690631 5.971634 12.78363 17.66806
10 0.005717 6.448021 33.85484 4.285686 16.12433 0.647386 6.273609 13.34188 19.02425

Variance Decomposition of INFMA:

Period S.E. RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA

1 0.000455 26.18538 15.45696 7.101648 3.009231 0.409815 8.134658 18.16617 21.53614

2 0.000891 34.86046 10.95894 13.51021 7.313965 0.553302 5.760916 11.45616 15.58604
3 0.001269 39.68064 9.823678 15.08070 8.979818 1.961404 4.394732 8.681870 11.39716
4 0.001531 42.22121 10.88228 14.59638 8.717617 3.868659 3.574920 7.376309 8.762629
5 0.001697 42.72172 12.16014 14.71772 7.495841 6.047009 3.066099 6.578043 7.213431
 ١٣٢

6 0.001811 41.60069 11.88966 16.31270 6.771686 8.287350 2.763786 6.032756 6.341369

7 0.001923 38.90820 10.54061 18.51010 7.964121 10.17399 2.624087 5.655457 5.623429
8 0.002069 34.77591 10.26570 19.22956 11.01667 11.19184 2.836841 5.660458 5.023030
9 0.002271 29.69551 11.88910 17.93736 13.95114 11.04998 3.577035 6.491407 5.408469
10 0.002537 24.44784 14.31597 15.96894 14.83228 9.936236 4.595746 8.258438 7.644547

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

Cholesky Ordering: RWA GM_PA GRGDPA INT CD3A CD6A ATA INFMA
 ١٣٣

‫א‬ ‫ א א‬.٨ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

Response to Generalized One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E.

Response of INT to RWA Response of CD3A to RWA

.003 .004

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

.003
.002

.002
.001
.001
.000
.000

-.001
-.001

-.002 -.002
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Response of CD6A to RWA Response of ATA to RWA

.005 .0008

.004 .0004

.003
.0000
.002
-.0004
.001
-.0008
.000

-.001 -.0012

-.002 -.0016
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Response to Generalized One S.D. Innovations ± 2 S.E.

Response of GM_PA to RWA Response of GM_PA to INT Response of GM_PA to CD3A Response of GM_PA to CD6A
.004 .004 .004 .004

.002 .002 .002 .002

.000 .000 .000 .000

-.002 -.002 -.002 -.002

-.004 -.004 -.004 -.004

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Response of GM_PA to ATA Response of GM_PA to INFMA Response of GRGDPA to RWA Response of GRGDPA to INT
.004 .004 .003 .003

.002 .002
.002 .002
.001 .001

.000 .000 .000 .000

-.001 -.001
-.002 -.002
-.002 -.002

-.003 -.003
-.004 -.004

-.004 -.004
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Response of GRGDPA to CD3A Response of GRGDPA to CD6A Response of GRGDPA to ATA Response of GRGDPA to INFMA
.003 .003 .003 .003

.002 .002 .002 .002

.001 .001 .001 .001

.000 .000 .000 .000

-.001 -.001 -.001 -.001

-.002 -.002 -.002 -.002

-.003 -.003 -.003 -.003

-.004 -.004 -.004 -.004

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 ١٣٤

‫א‬ ‫א‬ .٩ ‫ﻤﻠﺤﻕ ﺭﻗﻡ‬

All Rights Reserved - Library of University of Jordan - Center of Thesis Deposit

SHORT RUN DYNAMICS (for rank=5)
===============================
Deterministic variables: const
Parameter estimates:
m2 2.60
RGDP -0.39
wr -2.98
Intr 3.27
cd3 -0.03
cd6 -0.32
at 4.97
INF 7.78
Estimated asymptotic standard errors:
m2 1.26
RGDP 6.61
wr 3.27
Intr 6.73
cd3 2.64
cd6 2.81
at 0.96
INF 2.12
where we have treated beta as fixed, i.e., the actual
asymptotic distribution for the estimated parameters on
deterministic variables is not Gaussian unless beta is known.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Endogenous variables: m2 RGDP wr Intr cd3 cd6 at INF
First difference lag 1
m2 0.22 0.02 -0.24 0.11 0.60 -0.15 -0.02 -0.11
RGDP -0.47 0.00 0.06 0.11 0.33 -0.02 -0.44 0.08
wr 0.12 -0.02 -0.33 -0.02 0.45 -0.13 0.20 0.04
Intr 0.35 -0.06 -0.27 -0.25 0.92 -0.57 -0.22 0.74
cd3 0.48 0.01 -0.42 -0.02 0.25 0.24 -0.75 0.05
cd6 0.55 0.08 -0.48 0.10 0.14 0.38 -0.60 0.22
at 0.10 0.04 -0.06 0.01 0.03 0.19 -0.02 0.00
INF -0.43 0.17 0.04 -0.02 -0.39 0.48 0.00 0.20
Estimated asymptotic standard errors:
m2 0.14 0.03 0.11 0.03 0.15 0.11 0.16 0.07
RGDP 0.73 0.16 0.56 0.18 0.77 0.59 0.82 0.36
wr 0.36 0.08 0.28 0.09 0.38 0.29 0.41 0.18
Intr 0.75 0.16 0.57 0.18 0.78 0.60 0.83 0.36
cd3 0.29 0.06 0.22 0.07 0.31 0.24 0.33 0.14
cd6 0.31 0.07 0.24 0.08 0.33 0.25 0.35 0.15
at 0.11 0.02 0.08 0.03 0.11 0.09 0.12 0.05
INF 0.24 0.05 0.18 0.06 0.25 0.19 0.26 0.11
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
 ١٣٥

Estimated alpha parameters:

m2 0.01 -0.03 -0.20 0.08 -0.04
RGDP 0.21 -0.12 -0.19 -0.93 -0.49
wr -0.17 0.13 -0.03 -0.11 0.30
Intr -0.14 0.00 -0.67 -0.11 0.50
cd3 -0.07 0.26 0.06 -0.09 0.10

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cd6 0.02 0.01 0.08 -0.03 0.02
at 0.15 0.03 -0.06 0.02 -0.09
INF 0.38 0.00 0.19 -0.04 0.23

Estimated asymptotic standard errors:

m2 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
RGDP 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
wr 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11
Intr 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22
cd3 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
cd6 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09
at 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
INF 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

Estimated BETA parameters:

m2
RGDP
wr
Intr
cd3
cd6
at
INF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Estimated Pi=alpha*beta_(endogenous)' parameters:
m2 -0.29 0.04 0.22 -0.22 -0.23 0.10 -0.31 -0.04
RGDP 0.61 -0.67 -0.21 -0.18 0.85 -0.65 0.64 0.21
wr 0.17 0.02 -0.30 0.14 -0.47 0.69 0.36 0.17
Intr -0.24 0.02 -0.12 -0.53 -1.04 1.22 -0.33 0.13
cd3 -0.01 -0.05 0.03 0.28 -0.94 0.64 0.00 0.11
cd6 0.11 -0.03 -0.07 0.08 0.06 -0.04 0.03 0.00
at -0.18 -0.08 0.28 -0.07 -0.40 -0.02 -0.59 -0.11
INF 0.34 -0.18 -0.10 0.10 -0.25 -0.14 -0.97 -0.26
Estimated asymptotic standard errors:
m2 0.08 0.03 0.08 0.05 0.20 0.11 0.16 0.03
RGDP 0.40 0.17 0.41 0.26 1.04 0.57 0.83 0.18
wr 0.20 0.08 0.20 0.13 0.51 0.28 0.41 0.09
Intr 0.41 0.17 0.42 0.26 1.06 0.58 0.84 0.18
cd3 0.16 0.07 0.16 0.10 0.42 0.23 0.33 0.07
cd6 0.17 0.07 0.17 0.11 0.44 0.24 0.35 0.07
at 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.15 0.08 0.12 0.03
INF 0.13 0.05 0.13 0.08 0.33 0.18 0.26 0.06
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Estimated Omega parameters:
m2 0.08 0.06 -0.04 -0.14 -0.05 -0.02 0.00 0.00
RGDP 0.06 2.17 -0.41 -1.09 -0.30 -0.29 0.05 -0.10
wr -0.04 -0.41 0.53 0.65 0.34 0.35 -0.02 0.10
 ١٣٦

Intr -0.14 -1.09 0.65 2.25 0.53 0.40 -0.05 -0.01

cd3 -0.05 -0.30 0.34 0.53 0.35 0.33 -0.02 0.06
cd6 -0.02 -0.29 0.35 0.40 0.33 0.39 0.01 0.03
at 0.00 0.05 -0.02 -0.05 -0.02 0.01 0.05 -0.06
INF 0.00 -0.10 0.10 -0.01 0.06 0.03 -0.06 0.22
Estimated asymptotic standard errors:

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m2 0.02 0.06 0.03 0.06 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02
RGDP 0.06 0.45 0.17 0.36 0.13 0.14 0.05 0.10
wr 0.03 0.17 0.11 0.18 0.08 0.08 0.02 0.05
Intr 0.06 0.36 0.18 0.46 0.15 0.15 0.05 0.10
cd3 0.02 0.13 0.08 0.15 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.04
cd6 0.03 0.14 0.08 0.15 0.07 0.08 0.02 0.04
at 0.01 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.02
INF 0.02 0.10 0.05 0.10 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.05

LONG RUN GENERALIZED IMPULSE RESPONSES (for rank=5)

===================================================
Equation eps_m2 eps_RGD eps_wr eps_Int eps_cd3 eps_cd6 eps_at eps_INF
-
m2 0.1337 0.0552 0.1243 0.1381 0.0106 0.098 0.1011 0.0268
- -
RGDP 0.0308 0.1615 0.1534 0.2728 -0.3876 -0.3435 0.1728 -0.0951
-
wr 0.2762 -0.0941 0.3489 0.0933 0.5519 0.613 0.2083 0.2782
-
Intr 0.1095 -0.1062 0.0827 0.1845 0.3861 0.3253 0.3307 0.227
-
cd3 0.2202 -0.1565 0.2308 0.2442 0.6397 0.5976 0.4361 0.3507
-
cd6 0.2197 -0.1961 0.3548 0.2888 0.75 0.7415 0.3784 0.3393
at -0.1366 0.0085 0.0543 -0.031 -0.1562 -0.0972 0.2954 -0.2017
- - -
INF 0.2814 0.1778 0.4475 0.2275 -0.1992 -0.3404 0.5361 0.331
Estimated asymptotic standard errors:
Equation eps_m2 eps_RGD eps_wr eps_Int eps_cd3 eps_cd6 eps_at eps_INF
m2 0.0783 0.0799 0.0827 0.082 0.0813 0.0776 0.0802 0.0695
RGDP 0.1272 0.1272 0.133 0.1302 0.1239 0.1202 0.1282 0.1109
wr 0.1928 0.1963 0.2021 0.2038 0.1911 0.1813 0.1971 0.1682
Intr 0.1629 0.1643 0.1717 0.1699 0.1623 0.1573 0.1625 0.141
cd3 0.242 0.2446 0.2549 0.2532 0.2398 0.2313 0.2431 0.2096
cd6 0.2545 0.2568 0.2665 0.2658 0.2497 0.2397 0.2569 0.2208
at 0.1179 0.1197 0.1249 0.1243 0.1204 0.1165 0.1169 0.1018
INF 0.2031 0.2061 0.2111 0.2135 0.2089 0.199 0.2012 0.1763

THE C-MATRIX (for

rank=5)
-1
Equation eps_m2 eps_RGD eps_wr eps_Int eps_cd3 eps_cd6 eps_at eps_INF
-
m2 0.3003 0.0145 0.5289 0.1662 -0.266 0.0995 0.3146 -0.0195
-
RGDP -0.2742 -0.0029 0.7683 0.1698 -0.4955 -0.6664 0.8125 -0.0863
 ١٣٧

- - -
wr 1.2571 0.0497 0.4519 0.0414 0.5029 1.1032 1.1448 0.2115
-
Intr 0.7917 0.032 1.0293 0.146 0.7833 0.6992 -1.45 0.2399
- -
cd3 1.3316 0.0529 1.2936 0.1458 1.0414 1.1969 2.0052 0.3376
-

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cd6 1.348 0.0494 -1.166 0.1258 0.9483 1.41 1.8456 0.2949
-
at -0.7069 -0.0351 0.7686 0.0769 -0.6314 -0.2956 1.2196 -0.2359
- -
INF 1.0987 0.0707 1.1162 0.056 0.996 -0.3351 1.9935 0.4604
Estimated asymptotic standard errors:

Equation eps_m2 eps_RGD eps_wr eps_Int eps_cd3 eps_cd6 eps_at eps_INF

m2 0.2429 0.0458 0.2304 0.0554 0.2545 0.1663 0.3024 0.0943
RGDP 0.3889 0.0733 0.3688 0.0887 0.4073 0.2662 0.484 0.1509
wr 0.5957 0.1122 0.565 0.136 0.624 0.4078 0.7415 0.2312
Intr 0.4991 0.094 0.4733 0.1139 0.5227 0.3416 0.6212 0.1937
cd3 0.7429 0.14 0.7046 0.1695 0.7781 0.5085 0.9247 0.2884
cd6 0.7808 0.1471 0.7406 0.1782 0.8178 0.5345 0.9719 0.3031
at 0.3629 0.0684 0.3442 0.0828 0.3801 0.2484 0.4517 0.1409
INF 0.6271 0.1181 0.5948 0.1431 0.6568 0.4292 0.7806 0.2434

.
 ١٣٨

OPTIMAL POLICY FOR CONTROLLING INFLATION:

COINTEGRATED VECTOR
AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL (COIN-VAR)

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By

Ahmad majali

Supervisor

Dr. Bashir kh. al-zu'bi, Prof.

ABSTRACT
This study aims at investigating the possibility of Controlling Inflation through
intermediate targets represented by short and long-term interest rates in the banking
system. In addition, it aims at measuring the effectiveness of monetary policy
instruments in influencing banking interest rates. This will be examined through
applying the unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) to determine the
effectiveness of monetary policy , and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model
(Coin-VAR) to determine the possibility of inflation controlling. The following
variables were used in the study : the real growth rate of broad money(adjusted for
inflation) , the real growth rate of GDP, the inflation rate, as measured by relative
change in CPI, the interest rate on certificates of deposit (CDs) with maturities of three
and six months. The margin between credit and debit interest rates, overnight inter-
bank rate, the midpoint between the overnight interest rate on repurchase agreements
and window deposit. The data under consideration are quarterly data for the Jordanian
economy during the period (1995-2007).
Moreover, the Dickey-Fuller test was applied to determine if the variables are
stationary or not. This test results have shown that all variables are stationary at the first
deference. Also, Granger Causality test was applied to determine the causality
direction between variables. The results of this test have indicated an interoperability
causal relationship between all model’s variables except the causality relationship
between growth of money stock and real GDP.
In the unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), two analytical tools have
been used, the variance decomposition and impulse response function. Results of both
support the outcomes interpretation and their consistency with literature review. The
results of the variance decomposition test showed a strong impact of monetary policy
instruments on interest rates in the banking system. Also , results of the variance
 ١٣٩

decomposition of the of interest rates are consistent with the economic theory and the
impact of the banking system interest rates on the rate of Inflation is strong against a
weak GDP response to interest rates in the market. The results of the impulse response
function test showed consistency with those of variance decomposition .

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As for the main model’s results , they have shown that the inflation rate increases by
0.38 basis points when liquidity growth rate exceeds output growth rate by one basis
point, while when the deviation of the inter-bank rate from the midpoint causes
inflation rate to rise at a relatively small up to 0,005 basis points. This result seems to
be insignificant. As for the deviation between the interest on certificates of deposit for
three months and the midpoint from the track ,by stabilizing points, by one basis point
leads to a rise in inflation rate by 0.19 basis points. The deviation of interest margin in
the banking system from the interest rate on certificates of deposit from the track by
stabilizing points by one basis point is working to reduce the inflation rate by 0.04 basis
points. However, this result is insignificant. Finally, the rise in the margin between the
inflation rate in the previous period from the margin of interest in the banking system,
by one basis point, is working to raise the inflation rate by 0.23 basis points.