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Jay Solomon
Jun 27, 2023, 10:46am GMT+1 SECURITY NORTH AMERICA

Wagner Group rift exposes Russia on the Ukraine

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Andriy Zagorodnyuk via Twitter

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THE SUBJECT
The palace intrigue surrounding Vladimir Putin and his erstwhile ally, Yevgeny
Prigozhin, remains murky days after the Wagner Group commander’s aborted mutiny
against the Russian military. But the fallout from the insurrection on the battlefield of
Ukraine may be easier to decipher.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk served as Ukraine’s defense minister and is the currently chairman
of the Kyiv-based think tank, the Center for Defense Studies. He also continues to advise
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s cabinet on defense issues. He talked with Semafor on
Monday about how the discord in Moscow could impact Ukraine’s recently launched
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counteroffensive against Russia’s occupying forces.

THE INTERVIEW
Jay Solomon: How do you think this mutiny is impacting the Ukrainian military strategy
now?
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Regarding the Wagner group: Obviously we are very closely
looking at the future of that group, because they had been a most successful organization
during the last year. They were very, very brutal, very, very rough guys. Extremely
immoral. But at the same time, they had a very different doctrine, a very different
approach. And that approach allowed them to capture — in six months, they captured a
city. It was actually a town. But nevertheless. And now they’re going to absorb it into the
traditional armed forces and traditional doctrine. And what we are very interested in
seeing is what’s going to remain for that organization.
Jay Solomon: You mean if they’re just sort of gone. That’s it.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Well, I mean, we’ll need to see because it’s too early to say. But if
they’re gone, that's obviously a very interesting situation, yes.
Jay Solomon: I mean, do you think there are other symmetrical or militia types ready to
fill that void. Because Putin has shown over the last decade, whether in Ukraine or Syria
or in Georgia, he seems tied to this idea of using non-conventional forces.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: True, but none of them were successful.

Jay Solomon: Except for Bakhmut, no?

Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Yes, except for there. And again, that success was very limited and
very pricey, even for themselves. It wasn’t scalable.

Jay Solomon: What are you looking for right now on the front lines?

Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Where are [Wagner’s men] going right now? Those guys are not
going to stay home. They are going to go somewhere. And [Prigozhin] goes to Belarus? I
mean, are they going to follow him? And if yes, what are they going to do? Because that
group is still extremely dangerous and we certainly need to understand their direction.
Some — they will sign the contract with the Ministry of Defense. And then they will
probably be dispersed in different units so they don't have any kind of unity you know.
But I mean, is that it? Or there will be some guys who would still do something on their
own? And if yes, where are they going to go?
Jay Solomon: Could they remobilize in Belarus? Is that a strategically useful place for
them to attack if you’re Russia?
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: I don’t know. I mean, I don’t know. Yes, potentially. They can start
from anywhere technically.
Jay Solomon: If you look at [Russia’s front line], are there certain parts that are
potentially more vulnerable? The British Ministry of Defence today put out a statement.
I don’t know if it was psychological warfare, but they were saying, it looks like some of
the lines have been thinned around back Bakhmut.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk: I don’t know why they decided to say that. Most of them were not
on the front already by the time when this happened.
Jay Solomon: Right. It’s already thinned. Do you think this will change Putin’s tactics,
strategy — like he'd be more willing to use WMD?
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: I don’t think so. I think the only reason why he's not using them is
just because he understands that the consequences will be a disaster. That’s it. That’s the
only single reason.
Jay Solomon: Do you think there are any other tactics that might change after this if he’s
not going to go for some crazy...
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: To be honest, no, no, I don’t think so. I think we had a one-day
event, which was obviously extremely remarkable. But I don’t think they will change the
tactics of their armed forces at all.
Jay Solomon: How about on the psychological side. Do you think most likely that there
will be attempts — whether it’s through telegram or leaflets or loudspeakers — to exploit
this, you know, why the hell are you fighting for these guys?
Andriy Zagorodnyuk: Maybe in the future? Yes. Maybe in the future, we’ll see some
operations trying to. I can only guess right now, but I think that the last thing you want if
you are a party in this war, the last thing you want is that your sides fight against each
other. Right? That’s like loss of unity is just horrible. It’s probably the worst situation you
can imagine.
That’s why Putin looked so different when he was making that speech. Because that's
just the unimaginable. Putin will never forget that. He will never forgive this, he will
never honor any agreements to [Prigozhin]. He doesn’t honor any agreements in general.
Certainly not to this guy. I think he is in an extremely dangerous situation.

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