Prognostic Risk

Assessment Models

MODI MIMIT
Group:- 647A
 INTRODUCTION
• Prognostic risk assessment models are tools
that use patient data to estimate the
probability or risk of a certain outcome, such
as death, disease, or complications. These
models can help clinicians and patients make
informed decisions about diagnosis,
treatment, and prevention.
 EXAMPLES
• SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation),
which predicts the 10-year risk of fatal
cardiovascular disease based on age, sex, blood
pressure, cholesterol, and smoking status.
• 9-ARGs model, which predicts the survival of
patients with HER2-positive breast cancer based on
nine autophagy-related genes.
• 10-gene signature-based risk assessment model,
which predicts the prognosis of lung
adenocarcinoma based on ten differentially
expressed genes.
• Framingham Risk Score: Developed in the United
States, this tool estimates the 10-year risk of
developing coronary heart disease based on age,
gender, cholesterol levels, blood pressure, smoking
status, and diabetes status.
• ASCVD Risk Estimator: The American College of
Cardiology/American Heart Association's tool that
estimates the 10-year risk for atherosclerotic
cardiovascular disease based on similar risk factors
as above.
• QRISK: A cardiovascular disease risk assessment
tool developed in the United Kingdom that includes
additional risk factors such as ethnicity, family
history, BMI, and socioeconomic status in addition
to the traditional risk factors.
 SCORE
• The SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk
Evaluation) model is a risk assessment tool
developed to estimate the 10-year risk of
fatal cardiovascular events (such as heart
attack, stroke, other cardiovascular deaths)
in individuals. It is widely used in Europe as a
means to help healthcare professionals
identify individuals at higher risk of
developing cardiovascular diseases.
 FACTORS

• The SCORE model takes into account several

key risk factors, including age, gender,
smoking status, total cholesterol levels, and
systolic blood pressure. These factors are
used to calculate an individual's risk score.
 Risk Categories
The risk score obtained from the SCORE
model is used to categorize individuals into
different risk categories:
• Low risk: <1% risk of a fatal cardiovascular
event in the next 10 years
• Moderate risk: 1-4% risk
• High risk: ≥5% risk
 Interpretation of Results
• The risk score obtained helps
healthcare providers to assess the
overall cardiovascular risk of an
individual. This information is crucial in
guiding decisions regarding preventive
measures and treatment strategies.
 Clinical Application
• Healthcare professionals use the
SCORE model to stratify patients into
different risk categories and tailor
interventions accordingly. For example,
individuals at high risk may require
more aggressive interventions, such as
lifestyle modifications or medication,
to reduce their risk.
 Limitations
• It's important to note that while the
SCORE model is a valuable tool, it does
have some limitations. For instance, it
may not account for certain individual
factors that could influence an
individual's actual risk.
 SCORE2
• SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and
validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD
in European populations—enhances the
identification of individuals at higher risk of
developing CVD across Europe.
 Reference
• https//academic.oup.com/eurheartj/article/42/25
/2439/6297709
• Goff DC , Lloyd-Jones DM, Bennett G, Coady
S, D’agostino RB, Gibbons R, Greenland P, Lackland
DT, Levy D, O’donnell CJ, Robinson JG. 2013
ACC/AHA guideline on the assessment of
cardiovascular risk: a report of the American
College of Cardiology/American Heart Association
Task Force on Practice Guidelines. J Am Coll Cardiol
2014;63(25, Part B): 2935–29 59.