Lecture 19

SEE211
Energy, Climate Change and Sustainability
Recap
Ø Necessity to reduce emissions have led to global and country-wise pledges to become
NetZero.

Ø Achieved through a combination of emission reduction and emission removal.

Ø The Paris Agreement

• States should ‘achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks
of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century’.
Global action

Reference: IPCC
Net-zero in India.
Ø Emissions still rising

Ø Still has to build a lot of energy and other infrastructure

• E.g., 70% of India yet to be built
• Opportunity to leapfrog traditional infra

Ø Bend emissions curve, peak, then pursue net-zero

Ø BUT while balancing against multiple developmental objectives

• Per capita incomes, PPP: $8390 (US: $76,400, China: $21,475) 7 lac rupees

• Youth unemployment rate: 42%

• Access to household sanitation: 46%
• Per capita healthcare expenditure, PPP: $190 (US: $11,700)
Source: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?locations=IN; https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/youth-unemployment-crisis-in-india-2711298; https://water.org/our- impact/where-
we-work/india/; https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.CHEX.PP.CD?locations=IN
Challenges: Managing a just transition
Ø E.g., coal use to fall 95% by 2050 for 1.5°C scenario; may entail early closure of mines, power
plants, ICE production plants, etc.

Ø Coal phase-out impacts on

• Jobs: 1.2 million direct + up to 20 million indirect, mostly in Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh
o Impacts on nutrition, health, gender outcomes, etc.
• Railways: Coal freight > 40% of railway revenues, subsidizes passenger revenues & enables mobility
• Fiscal revenues: Coal taxes > ₹25000 crore per year, helps fund public expenditures
• Banks: Loaned heavily to coal plants, risk of stranded assets and financial system instability
• Downstream industries

Ø Incentive to keep these assets in operation

• Sudden and uncompensated systemic shifts are not desirable
• Need to manage a just transition

Source: https://scroll.in/article/1016936/in-indias-coal-belts-jobs-are-now-hard-to-get-and-harder-to-keep; https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2021-

04/Project_Report.pdf; https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/consumers-pay-rs-25000-crore-price-for-high-coal-tax-keeping-power-out-of-
gst/articleshow/80590164.cms
Challenges: Financing
Ø Varied numbers, e.g., total USD 10 tn (2070) or USD 12 tn (2050)
or USD 6-8 tn (2030) for India
• Partial picture covering some sectors (e.g., power, EVs, green H2) – and
tech-centric

Ø Current flows: USD 803 bn in 2020

• Vs. fossil fuel subsidies: USD 1 trillion in 2022

Ø Public: Developed country commitment of USD 100 bn by 2020,

for trust-building in 2009
• Failed to meet target; 2020 USD 83 bn reported
• Controversy on definitions: In 2014 OECD reported USD 62 bn, India
stated USD 2 bn

Ø Private: Sovereign credit ratings, currency risk, domestic

challenges (e.g., off-take risk)

Source: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/J0156_UNFCCC%20BA5%202022%20Summary_Web_AW.pdf;
https://dea.gov.in/sites/default/files/ClimateChangeOEFDReport_0.pdf
Development vs net-zero pathways
• India: Significant uncertainties about future growth rates and patterns (e.g., services-led,
urbanisation levels)
• Implications for energy system structures and mitigation (e.g., grid-connected vs
decentralised, T&D infra)
• Mitigation strategies are also embedded in development choices

• Choice of development pathway shapes policy choices and mitigation potentials

Source: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14693062.2021.1973361; https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/832/CAT_2020-12-
09_Report_DecarbonisingIndianTransportSector_Dec2020.pdf
The nature of global climate politics
Ø Countries are self-interested
Ø They do not want to impose domestic economic and political costs
Ø Key sectors – polluting export industries, energy, etc. are deeply intertwined with politics
Ø Global negotiations about meeting international pressures and satisfying domestic
constituencies in a two-level game
Lastly, net-zero
Ø Signaling a commitment to end emissions?
• Many NZ announcements with clear model-based trajectories

Source: https://priceofoil.org/content/uploads/2023/09/OCI-Planet-Wreckers-Report-Final.pdf
Ø Stalling tactic, sleight of hand rather than immediate action now?
• Sum of global NZ targets still not enough for 1.5°C
• Delayed action pathways ignore cumulative emissions
• Principal-agent problem; emissions still rising
• E.g., US has 2050 NZ target, but responsible for more than 1/3rd of planned global fossil fuel
expansion
• Over-reliance on unproven/nonexistent technologies

Ø Transition plans must be re-re-revisited on periodic basis to have any realistic chances
Suggested Readings
• How to Divide Up Carbon Budgets Fairly: https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-to-divide-up-carbon-budgets-
fairly/

• USD 100 Billion: Delivering The Nucleus Of Climate Finance: https://www.outlookindia.com/international/usd-

100-billion-delivering-the- nucleus-of-climate-finance-news-297934

• What the Updated NDC Means: https://environmentality.cprindia.org/blog/what-the-updated-ndc-means-for-

indias-contribution-to-the- climate-crisis

• Keeping Development at the Forefront of India’s Long-term Climate Strategy:

https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/environment/keeping- development-at-the-forefront-of-india-s-long-term-
climate-strategy.html

• When Idiot Savants do Climate Economics: https://theintercept.com/2023/10/29/william-nordhaus-climate-

economics/

• Scenarios for Different ‘Future Indias’: Sharpening Energy and Climate Modelling Tools:
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14693062.2021.1973361

• The Climate Futures Project: https://climatefuturesproject.in/

• Climate Scientists: Concept of Net Zero is a Dangerous Trap: https://theconversation.com/climate-scientists-

concept-of-net-zero-is-a-
dangerous-trap-157368
Net-zero (zero energy) Buildings
www.youtube.com/watch?v=FysJ
Kq5yCfg

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Definition of Net-zero (zero) Energy

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Definition of Net-zero Energy
Ø What is a net-zero energy building?

Ø A measure of a building’s energy performance.

• A net-zero building produces as much (or more) RE as its energy usage over its yearly operation.

• Means that NRE sources may be used, but enough RE must be generated on-site to offset/exceed the
NRE use.

• Intent is not just to secure enough RE regardless of energy efficiency.

15
 Ref: A Common
Definition for Zero
Energy Buildings 16
Example
A building has the following energy types delivered annually:
• 60,000 kWh of electricity from the grid
• 2,000 m3 of natural gas

The on-site renewable exported energy is 75,000 kWh/year of electricity from photovoltaics.

Is the building a net-zero energy building?

[Hint: 1 m3 of natural gas has ~10.64 kWh of energy]

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Solution
Ø Annual delivered energy (Edel) to the building
• Electricity = 60,000 kWh
• Natural gas = 2,000 m3 × 10.64 kWh/m3 = 21,280 kWh
Total (Edel) = 81,280 kWh

Ø On-site renewable exported energy (Eexp)

• Solar PV = 75,000 kWh
• Others = 0 kWh
Total (Eexp) = 75,000 kWh

Ø Site energy (Esite): Esite = Edel − Eexp

⇒ Esite = (81,280 − 75,000) kWh = 6,280 kWh

Since Esite > 0, this would NOT be Zero Energy building 18

Energy conversion table
Unit 1 kBtu 1 kWh 1 MJ
Cubic Feet 1.03 0.3 1.09
Natural gas Cubic Meters 36.33 10.64 38.33
Therms 100 29.3 105.5
Cubic Feet 2.52 0.74 2.66
Propane Gallons 91.65 26.85 96.69
Liters 23.83 6.98 25.14
Gallons 138.69 40.64 146.32
Fuel oil + diesel
Liters 36.03 10.57 38.04
Coal (Anthracite) Pounds 12.54 3.67 13.23
Coal (Bituminous) Pounds 12.46 3.65 13.15
Wood Tons 15,380.00 4,506.34 16,225.90
District (Chilled Water) Ton Hours 12 3.52 12.66
District (Hot Water) Therms 100 29.3 105.5
Therms 100 29.3 105.5
District (Steam)
Pounds 1.19 0.35 1.26

Ref: Net zero energy design by Hootman. 19

Example (HW)
A building has the following energy types delivered annually:
• 40,000 kWh of electricity from the grid, 2,000 m3 of natural gas, and
1,000 l of diesel.
The on-site renewable exported energy is 60,000 kWh/year of
electricity from photovoltaics.
1. Is the building a net-zero energy building?
2. If not, how much extra solar electricity generation is required to
make it a net-zero energy building?

[Hint: 1 m3 of natural gas has ~10.64 kWh of energy, 1 liter of diesel has ~10.57 kWh of energy]

20
Solution (HW)
Ø Annual delivered energy (Edel) to the building
• Electricity = 40,000 kWh
• Natural gas = 2,000 m3 × 10.64 kWh/m3 = 21,280 kWh
• Diesel = 1000 L × 10.57 kWh/m3 = 10,570 kWh
Total (Edel) = 71,850 kWh

Ø On-site renewable exported energy (Eexp)

• Solar PV = 60,000 kWh
• Others = 0 kWh
Total (Eexp) = 60,000 kWh

Ø Site energy (Esite): Esite = Edel − Eexp

⇒ Esite = (71,850 − 60,000) kWh = 11,850 kWh

Since Esite > 0, this would NOT be Zero Energy building

To make this a zero energy building Esite ≤ 0, which means that more than 11,850 kWh solar
energy must be exported to the grid. 21
Definition(s)

Ref: building.ca/net-positive-office-building-markham-howland-green/ 22
Definition(s) of Net-zero

Net-zero Site Energy (kWh)

Net-zero Source Energy (kWh)

Net-zero CO2 Emissions (CO2-eq)

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Renewable Energy Certificate Zero Energy Building
Ø The designation Zero Energy Building (ZEB) should be used only for buildings that
have demonstrated through actual annual measurements that the delivered
energy is less than or equal to the on-site renewable exported energy.

Ø Buildings designed to be zero energy, but that have not had a full year of operation
demonstrating that they meet the requirements, are encouraged to identify their
intent to be or return to being a Zero Energy Building.

Ø The designation Renewable Energy Certificate Zero Energy Building (REC-ZEB)

should be used only for buildings that have demonstrated through actual annual
measurements that the delivered energy is less than or equal to the on-site
renewable exported energy plus Renewable Energy Certificates.

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Energy Use Metrics

25
Energy Performance Index (EPI)
Ø Measure of the total annual Energy Performance Index (EPI)
building energy use divided by the
built-up area.
• Also called EUI (energy use intensity).

𝐤𝐖𝐡/𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫
𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐭 − 𝐮𝐩 𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐚 (𝐦𝟐 )
Ref: www.firstgreen.co/green-building-metrics-every-architect-should-
know/#:~:text=EUI%20is%20an%20abbreviation%20for,%2Fm2%2Fyr
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EPI or EUI

Major uses
1. To set energy targets.
2. To compare performance with established energy baselines.
3. To compare energy performance of same type of buildings.
4. For energy rating purpose.

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Example
Built-up area
Ø A residential building has an
= 100 m2
electricity consumption of about 200
kWh/month. Calculate its EPI.

50 m2

1 ft2 = 0.09 28
Residential Building Star Rating Plan

Ref: https://beeindia.gov.in/sites/default/files/Labelling%20Flyer.pdf 29
Example
Built-up area
Ø A residential building has an
= 100 m2
electricity consumption of about 200
kWh/month. Calculate its EPI.

Ø What will be the star rating if the

building is located in the composite
zone?

50 m2

1 ft2 = 0.09 30
EPI or EUI
Ø Limitations
• Less helpful when comparing buildings in different climates or of different types.
• Unfair to even compare two office buildings in the same city with different occupancy
densities!

• Other metrics
o kWh/occupant hour/year for an office building.
o kWh/guest nights/year for a hotel.
o kWh/meals served/year for a restaurant.

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v A Common Definition for Zero Energy Buildings (September 2015), prepared for
the U.S. Department of Energy by the National Institute of Building Sciences.
Available at: www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/articles/common-definition-zero-
energy-buildings

v www.igbc.in/igbc-net-zero-energy-buildings.php

v Heating, cooling, lighting: sustainable design methods for architects (4th edition)
by Norbert Lechner.

v Net zero energy design: a guide for commercial architecture by Thomas

Hootman.

38
Netzero for Industries
Challenges for Industries
• Require complex multistakeholder collaboration:
o Diverse set of issues and supply chain in different industries
o NZE require collaboration in customers, suppliers, CO2
mitigation bodies, companies, government, financial institution
etc

• Common standards for “low-emission” production thresholds need

to be established for industrial companies to calibrate the
transformation of their key production processes.

• Technologies developed (or under development), however, pace of

demonstration projects need to be increased
Challenges for Industries
• End customer demand needs to be strengthened

• Heavily Capex dependent capex : capital expenditures

o Favorable taxonomies and public funding in the form of grants,

low-interest and concessional loans, etc. needed to reduce
companies’ risk exposure
o Pace of investment needs to be increased drastically

• Policy frameworks are necessary to level the playing field for first
movers willing to invest in higher-cost, low-emission production.
Decarbonization of Industry is
must!
What is the framework?
Framework for industry readiness
Five enabling dimensions of
industry net-zero transformation

• Capital
• Technology
• Infrastructure
• Demand
• Policy frameworks

Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2022 Edition – World Economic Forum

Framework for net-zero industry performance

Tracking four drivers of industry net

greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2022 Edition – World Economic Forum

Levers to reduce emissions

Net-Zero Industry Tracker 2022 Edition – World Economic Forum

 Decarbonize industrial process
essages
Sector Energy emissions Non-energy emissions
ors are considered
” due to their – Fossil fuels, including coke and – Metallurgical coke and natural gas are
ighly energy-intensive natural gas, are used to reach the used as reducing agents to produce iron
esses. As a result, high temperatures required in blast from iron ore, simultaneously releasing
Steel
ift from existing furnaces and direct reduction. CO2. Lime is also used.
tes to innovative new Electric arc furnaces require
outes is required. significant electric power.

, worldsteel, GCCA, – Coal and petcoke are typically
, Accenture analysis burnt to reach the required high
temperatures in cement kilns,
Cement releasing CO2.
– Energy emissions account for 40%
of emissions.
– Oxidation of limestone under high heat
forms calcium oxide (the desired product)
and releases CO2.
– Process emissions account for 60%
of emissions.

– Most emissions are due to the – The consumption of carbon anodes

energy requirements of electrolysis during electrolysis also releases CO2.
Aluminium
to smelt aluminium.

– Coal and natural gas are – In the same processes, methane, coal
consumed in coal gasification and water are converted into hydrogen
Ammonia and steam methane reforming gas, releasing CO2.
processes to provide energy.

– Fossil fuels are used in the
Net-Zero Industry
extraction and transportation of oil.
– Vented and fugitive methane emissions
Tracker 2022 Edition – World Economic Forum
form 34% of oil industry emissions.
 – Coal and natural gas are
consumed in coal gasification
Ammonia and steam methane reforming
Sector Energy emissions
processes to provide energy.
– In the same processes, methane, coal
and water are converted into hydrogen
gas, releasing CO2.
Non-energy emissions

– Fossil fuels, including coke and – Metallurgical coke and natural gas are
– Fossil fuels are used in the – Vented and fugitive methane emissions
e natural gas, are used to reach the used as reducing agents to produce iron
extraction and transportation of oil. form 34% of oil industry emissions.
high temperatures required in blast from iron ore, simultaneously releasing
Steel
Oil – furnaces and direct
Refining requires reduction.
significant energy – CO . Lime is also
H2 production
2
andused.
other refining
w Electric arc crude
to process furnacesoil, require
typically processes also release CO2 emissions.
significant
powered by electric power.
fossil fuels.

– Coal and
Energy is petcoke are typically
used to extract, process, – Oxidation
Vented andof fugitive
limestone under emissions
methane high heat
Natural burnt to reachnatural
and transport the required high
gas, typically forms calcium
form 66% oxide gas
of natural (the industry
desired product)
emissions.
gas temperatures in cement
from burning oil and gas.kilns, and releases CO .
Cement releasing CO2. – CO2 can also be2 released from raw gas
– Process
streams.emissions account for 60%
– Energy emissions account for 40% of emissions.
of emissions.
19
– Most emissions are due to the – The consumption of carbon anodes
energy requirements of electrolysis during electrolysis also releases CO2.
Aluminium
to smelt aluminium.
Climate risk, resilience,
adaptation and mitigation
 Climate risk (Exposure, hazard, vulnerability)
• Risk: probability of occurrence of hazardous events or trends multiplied
by the impacts if these events or trends occur

• Hazard: The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical

event or trend or physical impact that may cause loss of life, injury, or
other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property,
infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems, and
environmental resources.

• Exposure: The presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems,

environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or
economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be
adversely affected.

• Vulnerability: includes the concepts of sensitivity (susceptibility to harm)

and adaptive capacity.

• Sensitivity: An internal condition of the system indicating its degree of

susceptibility

• Adaptation: Adjusting in response to climate change

 Resilience and its components
Ø Most widely adopted definition of
resilience to climate change is given by
Adger et al., 2005, which defines
resilience as capability of socio-
economic systems to not only absorb
disturbance, retain its structure,
processes and feedbacks due to
perturbations by hazards but also
advance its state via learning and
adaptation.
Ø Urban resilience: urban or city
resilience refers to the capacity of
cities to function, so that the people
living and working in cities –
particularly the poor and vulnerable –
survive and thrive no matter what
stresses or shocks they encounter Fig.: Subjective and objective components of resilience (Clare et al.,
(Rockefellar foundation , 2016). 2017)
Dimensions and drivers of resilience

Source: Rockefellar foundation

Source: Environmental Protection Agency
Risk vs Resilience
Strategies to deal with Climate
Change

Adaptation and Mitigation

Integrated framework to deal with Climate change
Adaptation
Mitigation vs. Adaptation
Mitigation Adaptation
Global and public good, it does not Varies from purely private to global
matter where GHGs are reduced public good

Hence, free riding tendency Need credible information before

people can act

Can be easily measured and verified Difficult to measure, unit of adaptation?

Powerful actors, relatively concentrated Dispersed actors, relatively powerless

Mitigation (examples and approach) Adaptation (examples and approach)

Improving energy efficiency Guiding strategic development to

performance locations offering greater protections
from impacts such as flood, erosion,
storms

Reducing the need to travel Climate resilient buildings and water use
efficiency
Good accessibility to public and other Developing new sustainable water
sustainable modes of transport resources
Use of renewable energy Sustainable flood management
Reducing the amount of biodegradable Crop diversification
waste landfills
Promoting land use that act as carbon Early warning system
sinks
Summary
Ø The course discussed various aspects of Energy, Climate Change and Sustainability
Ø Energy demand is central to climate deterioration, fuelled by unabated use of fossil fuels and
consequent global warming
Ø It was exacerbated by population growth, materialism and lack of concern for the
environmental issue.
Ø Climate change is a complex phenomenon and modelling helps us understand it better.
Ø The limit to curb temperature increase to 1.5 degrees poses a significant challenge in front of
us to decarbonize the energy and industrial systems.
Ø New clean technologies are needed to curb the global warming.
Ø One also needs to factor in social, political and economics aspects while leading to clean
energy transition.