Russo- Ukraine War

BBA 6A

Khansa Maqsood Soomro (2011118)

Priyanka Kumari (2011131)

Sachin Kumar (2011133)

Sona Dhanraj (2011143)

Saijal Rani Novlani (2011137)

Table of Contents
History:...................................................................................................................................1
Russian invasion:...................................................................................................................1
Sanctions:...............................................................................................................................2
Impact of sanctions:................................................................................................................2
Among the consequences are:.................................................................................................2
How did Russia react to that:..................................................................................................3
Relationship between Russia and the united states:.................................................................3
The measurable impact:..........................................................................................................4
United states previously in war with Russia:............................................................................4
Joe Biden, the president of the USA visit:................................................................................4
Forecasting:............................................................................................................................5
Conclusion:............................................................................................................................6
Hypothetical:...................................................................................................................................6
Realistically:....................................................................................................................................6
History:
The United States founded diplomatic relations with Ukraine following its independence from the Soviet
Union in 1991. The United States attaches great importance to the success of Ukraine's evolution to a
modern democratic state with a striving market economy.
The United States has friendly and strategic ties with independent Ukraine and links great importance to
the triumph of Ukraine's change to democracy.
The United States and Ukraine control a bilateral investment treaty. The U.S. exports machinery, iron,
ports inorganic chemicals, and steel products, oil, aircraft, and agricultural products frogfish and seafood,
vehicles, agricultural products, coal, and aircraft to Ukraine. U.S.

Russian invasion:
The Russian invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, after several weeks of military buildup
along the border of Ukraine from Russian officials hinting at an approaching invasion.
The motives for the invasion are complex and multifaceted, but some of the contributing factors include:
Ukraine's efforts to move nearer to the West and away from Russia's orb of power.
Domestic political considerations.
Russia may have aimed to gain control over strategic regions in Ukraine, such as the Crimean Peninsula
and areas that border.
Russia has long regarded Ukraine as the territory of its historical and cultural orb of influence.
Since Russia’s illicit and unjustified full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States
has collaborated alongside partners and allies worldwide to implement a wide variety of sanctions and
restrictions on exports to Russia in retaliation for its heinous actions.
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been a matter of international concern for a long time. There
has been a lot of debate and discussion about what can and should be done to resolve the situation. One of
the most popular suggestions has been to provide military and economic support to Ukraine in the form of
Western military help and economic sanctions.

Military strategy and support are among the most crucial elements in predicting how a fight like this
would turn out. For several years, rebels supported by Russia have been battling in Ukraine's eastern
territories. While the Ukrainian military has managed to hold its own against the rebels, it is severely
short on essential supplies and tools. With Western military assistance, Ukraine may receive better tools,
intelligence, and training.
However, Western military action might potentially intensify the situation and result in a clash of armies.
Sanctions:
The sanctions imposed by the West in 2023 to help Ukraine are likely to have a variety of important
effects on Russia. The sanctions may cause heightened tensions between Russia and the West and are
expected to have an impact on Russia's economy, foreign policy, and domestic politics.
The sanctions' initial and most immediate effect will probably be seen by Russia's economy. The
sanctions are anticipated to have a particularly negative impact on the Russian banking industry, limiting
access to Western financial institutions and making it more difficult for Russian businesses to obtain
financing. Additionally, many Western nations may opt to move to other suppliers, which might restrict
Russia's capacity to sell oil and natural gas on the international market. This could put significant pressure
on Russia’s budget, as oil and gas exports account for a significant portion of the country’s revenues.

Impact of sanctions:
The impact of sanctions as well as export restrictions on Russia's defense industry is severe and long-
lasting. The Russian weapons sector's capacity to create and stockpile weapons to substitute those lost in
the conflict has been restricted starting February 2022 mainly as a result of cooperation between the
United States, its partners, as well as Allies through export limitations and sanctions.
The second impact of the sanctions may be on Russia’s foreign policy. In recent years, Russia has pursued
an increasingly assertive foreign policy, often aimed at undermining Western interests.

Among the consequences are:

Serious supply problems over Russian forces in Ukraine lead Russia to rely on less developed nations like
North Korea for equipment and supplies
Difficulties importing semiconductors as well as other essential parts. Russia's military aviation
program has been eliminated from the replenishment supplied by the global aviation trade, forcing it to
cannibalize current airline parts that is unable to get from overseas.
Russian production of hypersonic ballistic missiles has practically stopped due to a shortage of essential
semiconductors utilized in the process of production.
Exports of certain products and services, such as exports of dollar-denominated banknotes, finance,
managerial consulting, quantum computing technology, and trust and business formation services for
individuals who reside in the Russian Federation, have been prohibited. As a result of our actions, Russia
has given back defense stocks from the time of the Soviet Union.
The American government has also prohibited any exports, reexports, and exchanges of goods covered by
the Export Administration Regulations from reaching the Russian Federation including Belarus for
military use from February 2022.
Implemented export restrictions on specific goods that Russia could use to develop its capacity for
producing biological and chemical weapons in addition to other sophisticated manufacturing processes.
37 nations came together to form an alliance that has increased the effects of American measures by
enforcing regulations that are remarkably like the ones implemented by the US. This strong international
alliance supports American efforts to cut off Russia of the supplies, innovations, and software needed to
support Putin's war.
The economic effects of the sanctions may make it more difficult for Russia to finance its aspirations in
terms of foreign policy.
The sanctions may also have an impact on other nations that do business with or have contacts with
Russia. The breakdown of diplomatic and commercial ties between Russia and the West may have an
impact on the economy and relations of other nations with Russia.
It is essential to remember that penalties' effects can be complicated and have unexpected effects.
Policymakers must carefully assess the prospective punishments' effects and balance them against the
desired results.
Ukraine was the cornerstone of the Soviet Union, the United States' archive during the Cold War. After
Russia, it was the second most populous and most powerful of the fifteen Soviet republics, where much of
the agricultural l; production, defense industry and the military, including the Black Sea Fleet and part of
the nuclear arsenal. Ukraine was so fundamental to the union that its choice to cut ties in 1991 showed a
coup de grace for the injured superpower.
During its three decades of independence, Ukraine has struggled to forge its own path as a sovereign state
while seeking to align itself more closely with Western institutions, including the EU and NATO.
However, Kyiv tried to balance its foreign relations and bridge deep internal contradictions. The more
nationalistic, Ukrainian-speaking population in the western parts of the country generally supported
greater integration with Europe, while the predominantly Russian-speaking community in the east favored
closer relations with Russia.

How did Russia react to that:

Only about 18% of Russians say that Western sanctions have caused problems for their household. About
53% of Russians say the sanctions have not caused problems for them or their families.
Russian state energy giant Gazprom has halted all exports via Nord Stream 1 since August 31, citing
maintenance work on its only remaining compressor. However, while flows were supposed to be restored
after three days, Gazprom on Friday cited an oil leak for shutting down the pipeline indefinitely.

Relationship between Russia and the united states:

Russia and the United States hold one of the most crucial and strategic foreign relations in the world.
Both countries have shared interests in nuclear security, nonproliferation, space exploration and
counterterrorism.

After the annulment of the Soviet Union in 1991, the connections between the united states and
Russia were friendly under the Presidency of Boris Yeltsin (1991–99) in Russia. In the earlier
years of Yeltsin's presidency, the US and Russia founded a cooperative association and worked
together to address global matters such as counterterrorism, the conflict in Bosnia, and arms
control. During Yeltsin's second term, US-Russia links evolved more strained. In particular, the
1999 NATO intervention in Kosovo was strongly condemned by Yeltsin, who saw it as a
violation of Russia's latter-day orb of power and influence under Jjeopardy Yeltsin also opposed
NATO's expansion into Eastern European which he saw as a threat to Russia's safety and
security.
The measurable impact:
It is difficult to predict with confidence if US and Western military backing and economic sanctions
would be able to defeat Russia in Ukraine based on historical and geopolitical analyses.
While pressure from the military and economic sanctions can be applied to Russia, it is unclear that these
measures will be sufficient to defeat Russia in Ukraine. Russia has a sizable military presence in the area
and has previously demonstrated a willingness to use force to further its goals. Economic sanctions may
potentially have unforeseen implications for other nations in addition to harming Russia's economy.
Furthermore, there are several political, social, and economic forces at play in Ukraine's complicated
predicament. A comprehensive diplomatic strategy involving many parties, including Ukraine, Russia,
and other international players, will be necessary to resolve the crisis
So, it's critical that all sides engage in constructive communication and cooperate to find a peaceful, long-
lasting solution to the situation in Ukraine.
The trip to Ukraine and Poland takes place as the battle moves into a worrying new phase, which makes it
crucial. Russia recently began its most recent spring offensive. Soon, Ukraine is anticipated to launch its
own counteroffensive with the aid of American and western armaments. Furthermore, there is no sign of a
war's conclusion. While conveying to his countrymen the importance of the U.S. remaining unified in
support of Ukraine, Biden aims to reassure the area that U.S. support is still solid. Biden also met with the
president of Poland, Andrzej Duda, and will later have talks with the "Bucharest 9" leaders of the partners
on the eastern flank. Providing $3.8 billion in military and humanitarian aid, Poland is a key NATO
partner. According to Kirby, Biden will take advantage of the occasion to thank Poland for hosting
American troops.
According to Biden, no American soldiers will be sent to Ukraine. He has, however, been as unequivocal
that the US was ready to stand up for NATO allies.

United states previously in war with Russia:

The United States has never declared a direct war with Russia. However, it is crucial to mention that there
have been times of extreme geopolitical uncertainty and proxy clashes between the two nations during the
Cold War.
The Cold War was a time of geopolitical vendetta and ideological conflict between the United States and
the Soviet Union (which had Russia as the largest component) that prevailed from the end of World War
II and lasted til the early 1990s. Although there weren't any direct, stated wars between the United States
and the Soviet Union or Russia, there were multiple occasions of indirect disputes, brinkmanship and
competition.

Joe Biden, the president of the USA visit:

Joe Biden, the president of the USA, paid his first trip to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, dated February 20,
2023, following the beginning of the Russian invasion of that country. Only two reporters escorted him,
who had been sworn to confidentiality for three days before due to safety concerns, and his trip
arrangements weren't made official before his visit.
The visit occurred just four days before the one-year mark of the completely invasion, on a day that
Ukraine honors a Heavenly Hundred, and on the evening of the President of Russian Vladimir Putin's
scheduled significant speech. A maximum of twenty-four hours were required for the journey, most
of which took place on protracted train rides. Biden pledged additional five hundred million dollars in
military support to Ukraine during those five hours of negotiations in Kyiv.
In America, opinions on Biden's visit varied primarily along political party divisions. It was the very first
occasion in the modern era that an elected U.S. President visited an active conflict area that had not been
under the authority of the American military. The trip to Kyiv had been opposed by the US Secret Service
as well as the Pentagon.
The reason for President Biden's trip to visit Ukraine on February 2023 was probably because of the
continued hostilities between Ukraine and Russia. Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, which
led to Western sanctions on Russia, the two nations have frequently been at odds. Economic repercussions
from these penalties have hampered Russia's diplomatic relations with many nations, including the USA.
President Biden probably reviewed the current situation in the area, reaffirmed his backing of Ukraine,
and perhaps announced extra help on his visit to that country. The trip might be a hint that the US will
continue to support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.
In addition, Russia can interpret Biden's visit as a violation and increase regional disputes as a result.
“The United States stands strongly with Ukraine as it defends itself, and we will continue to do so until
Ukraine’s sovereignty is respected and the people of Ukraine can shape their chosen, democratic future in
freedom and peace,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Friday.
The new aid package includes ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS),
artillery rounds, drones, secure communication equipment and funding for “training, maintenance, and
sustainment”, the Pentagon said.
“The United States will continue to work with its Allies and partners to provide Ukraine with capabilities
to meet its immediate battlefield needs and longer-term security assistance requirements for as long as it
takes,” it added in a statement.

Forecasting:
In 2023, export income is predicted to decline, and the declining funds will probably be used to fund the
war efforts and suppress internal disagreement, leaving less money for sustaining the country's economy.
However, due to increasing fiscal spending beginning in late 2022, there may be some growth in the
initial quarter of 2023. Furthermore, the most recent figures from Russia show that private investment has
decreased and spending by customers has a bit increased, although customers have been cautiously
shifting a larger proportion of savings into short-term investments and currency in the wake of the
Russian military mobilization for the Ukrainian conflict.
Due primarily to the EU embargo including the G7 oil price restriction on the purchase of petroleum and
crude oil commodities, current account flows are projected to continue to fall. Now, Europe also happens
to be displacing Russian natural gas more quickly than many expected. Despite reaching a record high in
2022, Russia's aggregate surplus of current accounts decreased during the year, from $77.2 billion in the
second quarter of the year to $37.5 billion in the final period, and finally to $18.6 billion at the beginning
of the quarter.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the initial quarters of 2023 saw a budget deficit worth 2.4
trillion rubles ($30 billion), a figure that is 80% higher than the 2023 objective. This is because revenues
from oil and gas dropped by 45% compared to the previous year, while expenditure on war expenses
climbed significantly. In December 2022, there was a record-high deficit of 4 trillion rubles, or almost
$57 billion. In accordance with the Ministry of Finance, a portion from the 2023Q1 deficit was generated
to lessen the usual backloading of expenses. However, it seems unlikely that Russia will achieve its 2023
goal of a budget shortfall of just two percent of GDP.

Conclusion:
The consequence to any dispute depends on multiple aspects that often include
geopolitical dynamics, the country’s military capabilities and the resources it possesses.
both the nations United states and Russia possess nuclear capabilities, maintain
significant military powers, advanced conventional forces the include naval forces, air
forces, land forces, advanced technology and weapons. Further, both countries possess
comprehensive security networks and alliances that could play a major role in a
theoretical conflict.
It is however necessary to note that the modern welfare of the country is volatile and the development
of it is highly affected by multiple aspects that go beyond military control. The factors that often lead to
tragedy or triumph of a country include public view, economic stability, political relations, international
relations and oppositions. A war in general would have devastating outcomes and that also between two
major forces such as United States and Russia

Hypothetical:
If Ukraine is fully backed by the United States ignoring all the other factors that include NATO, their
political compliance and the trade that the two countries hold then it would be possible for Ukraine to
fight against the Russian army as historically United States has been a strong nuclear nation that could
easily win a fight against any nation with resources that in solitarily possess. If those resources are shared
with Ukraine along with a protection umbrella itll be easy to stop Russia. This could lead to world war as
well since many countries hold alliance with opposing parties. Russia on its own is a powerful nation that
holds 90% of Europe’s fossil fuel with itself.

Realistically:
Given the current situation of world economic crises and shortage of reinforcements countries would
avoid a war now, especially after what Russia did to Europe as a reply to the sanctions that were applied
to it for attacking Ukraine from the united states. Russia can cut off the supply of fossil fuel to Europe and
then Europe would freeze to death. Europe is a major part of NATO so the US would avoid any sort of
harm towards the European countries to protect them. Due to this reason upon visit Joe bidden declared to
provide no troops to Ukraine but yes to a lot of aid, that included medical resources, highly equipped
pentagon gadgets and much more. The united states stands its ground with ukrain to provide it its rightful
right to have sovereignty because Ukraine is also a key member and the strongest member of NATO.