Master’s Programme in Chemical, Biochemical & Materials Engineering

Copper production in the next 50 years – The main trends,

process & furnace developments, scrap as raw-materials,
waste management, and copper recovery

Muhammad Ghazanfar Ali

Master’s thesis
2023
Author Muhammad Ghazanfar Ali
Title of thesis Copper production in the next 50 years- The main trends, process &
furnace developments, scrap as raw materials, waste management, and copper
recovery
Programme Master’s Programme in Chemical, Biochemical and Material
Engineering
Major Functional Material
Thesis supervisor Prof. Ari Jokilaakso
Thesis advisor Prof. Ari Jokilaakso
Date 07.04.2023 Number of pages 76 Language English

Abstract

The future of copper looks challenging in terms of demand due to the increase in the
world's population, which is estimated to be 9 billion by 2050, and the global race towards
green technologies. Higher demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and the world's fast-growing
construction and electronics sectors make the supply-demand balance difficult. Copper
demand is expected to double by 2035 and grow by 300 % by 2050. To keep up with the
intense demand for copper, the discovery of new copper reserves is crucial. Current
operating copper mines need to increase their production, but also future copper mine
projects in the pipeline need to come on stream as soon as possible. Research and
development to improve future production technologies can play a role by building larger
smelters to process the ore coming from the mines. Copper recycling is very important in
the current scenario and a major focus should be on increasing the recycling and recovery
rate of scrap, especially WEEE. Copper slag is potential source to be treated and to recover
valuable metals including copper. The fact is that at present we are not ready to meet the
huge future demand for copper. Copper demand and supply gap will be higher in coming
future and copper price will go up. New mining projects are key to fill supply and demand
gap, while recovering copper from e-waste and copper slag can to some extent play its
part to meet copper demand in future.

Keywords Copper Production, Copper demand, Copper recycling, Copper slag, WEEE,
Waste management, Copper recovery
Table of contents
1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………...……1
1.1 Copper reserves and resources………………………………………………………………………….4
1.2 Availability of copper ......................................................................................... 6
1.3 Copper production process ................................................................................ 7
1.4 Copper trends.................................................................................................... 9
1.4.1 Global copper mine production ..................................................................... 9
1.4.2 Global copper smelter production ............................................................... 13
2 Future copper demand and supply…………………………………………………………………………….16
2.1 Future copper mines projects .......................................................................... 16
2.2 Overall copper demand and supply forecast .................................................... 23
2.3 Production technologies .................................................................................. 29
2.4 Copper recycling .............................................................................................. 32
2.5 Copper slag...................................................................................................... 36
3 Discussion…………………………………………..……………………………………………………………………..41
3.1 Forecasted copper demand Vs supply……………………………………….…………………….41
3.2 Copper mines production forecast and copper demand ................................... 42
3.3 Future production technologies ....................................................................... 45
3.4 Copper smelters .............................................................................................. 46
3.5 Technology innovation .................................................................................... 47
3.6 Energy sector and EVs...................................................................................... 48
3.7 Copper recycling .............................................................................................. 50
3.8 Copper price Vs inventory ................................................................................ 53
4 Conclusions…………………………….…………….…………………………………………………………………..55
References…………………….………………………………………………………………………………………..……..57
Preface and acknowledgements

I’d like to express my gratitude to Prof. Ari Jokilaakso, my esteemed supervisor, for all the
guidance, support, and instruction he provided me throughout my master thesis. I would like
to thank the faculty and staff at University of Aalto for providing me with the resources to
complete my master thesis.

In addition, I’d like to thank everyone especially my family who has been there for me
emotionally and intellectually as I’ve worked on my master thesis.

Otaniemi, 7 April 2023

Muhammad Ghazanfar Ali
Abbreviations

WEEE Waste electrical and electronic equipment

Mt Millions of tonne
EVs Electrical vehicles
ICRA International copper regulatory authority
MSW Municipal solid waste
GHGs Greenhouse gases
PV Photo voltaic
Ktpa Kilo tonne per annum
Wt% Weight percent
NGOs Not government organizations
PCBs Printed circuit boards
BMs Base metals
C&D Construction and demolition
INEW Industrial non-electrical equipment waste
BBS Bottom blowing smelting
SBF Side blowing furnace
MTC Multi lance top continued converting
ICSG International copper study group
1.Introduction

Copper is found in sulfides deposits in the form of bornite, chalcocite, chalcopyrite

and covellite. Carbonate deposits also contain copper as azurite and malachite and
can be found additionally in silicate deposits like chrysocolla and dioptase [1,2].
Copper is essential in our daily life that we are using this metal and its alloy in wide
ranges of applications such as brass and bronzes [3]. The key element properties of
copper are shown in Table 1.

Figure 1. Copper red orange metallic luster [4]

Table 1. Key element properties of copper [3]

1
The key physical properties of copper are so beneficial that it is essential in our life as
this metal is malleable and ductile and one of the best-known conductors of electrical
and heat transfer. It has also highly corrosion resistive properties and is in addition
machinable and formable. We are using this metal in huge amounts in our most
recent advanced technologies [3,4].

Figure 2. Key physical properties of copper [4]

Copper applications range from minor products to infrastructures and complex

electrical equipment [5]. This is because copper is used in many applications around
the world and one use of copper is in electrical wires, cables, motors, batteries, and
generators. Other use of copper is in electronic and communication systems for
instance in mobiles, computer, and internet devices. Copper is highly used in
construction for doors and window frames as well as in roofs and rainwater
appliances.

One of the most important copper usages is in transportation. We cannot live without
transportation and as world is moving towards EVs, copper become inevitable for our
living standard and due to boom in EVs copper usage is increasing. Besides this copper
is used in medical equipment and renewable energy devices like solar and wind
panels [4,5,6]. Copper applications ranges towards health care as due to its
antimicrobial properties it is used to prevent the diseases which can spread [7]. Figure
3 shows the distrbution of major copper usage in both first use and end production

2
use and Figure 4 shows that amount to copper use in conventional cars which is 23
kg versus different types of EVs ranging from 40-369 kg [4].

Figure 3. Major uses of copper [4]

Figure 4. Copper usage in EVs (kg) [4]

3
1.1 Copper Reserves and Resources

According to United States Geological survey (USGS) 2021, the total copper reserves
are around 870 Mt (Million tons). The total identified copper resources amount to be
2100 Mt and undiscovered resources believed to be 3500 Mt in 2015 as shown in
Figure 5 [4,8]. This is important to know that undiscovered resources did not include
any deep sea or land-based nodules neither massive sulfides in submarine. The USGS
reported the region wise identified and unidentified copper resources are shown in
Figure 6 [4].

Figure 5. Copper overall reserves and resources USGS & ICSG [4]

4
Figure 6. Regionally discovered (A) and undiscovered (B) copper resources, 2015 [4]

5
1.2 Availability of Copper

Copper long term availability is a hot topic due to its importance in these modern
times and for future generations. It is believed that we are not going to run out of
copper, and this is highly improbable [4,9]. USGS data shows that since 1960 we had
always 38 years of reserves and in addition huge number of resources which is known
in our pocket as shown in Figure 7. The other factors which are making sure the long-
term availability of copper include recycling, exploration in mining and innovation in
technology. No doubt the demand is increasing, but on the other hand, reserves seem
to be grown also [10].

This reflection is in this fact that between 2000-2021 in total 21 years of duration the
total mined copper amount to be 373 Mt while copper reserves grow from 447 Mt to
880 Mt [9]. Due to population growth the copper demand is increasing and thus
recycling plays an important factor to overcome this issue as copper is the metal
which can be recycled without losing its key physical and chemical properties [11,
12].

Figure 7. Copper availability 1930-2021 USGS [4]

6
 Figure 8. Historical Copper reserves Vs Copper annual production Mt, USGS, 2018 [9]

1.3 Copper Production Process

Copper is produced starting from mining of ore with less than 1% of copper to get
finished product with 99.95% pure copper as cathode. The complete process of
copper production involves multiple unit processes from mining to refining [13,14].
The overall copper ore grades are degrading with time with less than or equal to 1%
now a days [11]. Nearly 150 years back copper ore grades were 5% minimum and
even 10% in some good mines [14]. The complete copper refining process starts from
ore mining towards making copper concentrate by process of floatation containing
25-30% of copper and then roasting is preceding smelting process, sometimes. After
this process matte is obtained which contains 50-70% of copper. After this step
molten matte is converted to blister copper as pure as 98.5-99.5% of copper. Blister
copper is then fire refined to anode copper. Final step is electro-refining to get
99.99% pure copper cathode [2,4,13].

On the other hand, in hydrometallurgical process by using leaching and

electrowinning, copper metal is extracted from low grade oxide ores [4]. Some sulfide
ores are also being processed for copper extraction by hydrometallurgical process.
Copper that is produced by smelting and refining or through hydrometallurgical
processes from mine ores is known as primary production, while copper which we
get from recycling or scarp is known as secondary production. In 2021 almost 16.7%
of copper is produced by secondary production process as reported by ICSG [4]. The

7
complete copper refining process from mining ores to end market is shown in Figure
9.

Figure 9. Copper flow sheet from mining to market (ICSG) [13]

8
1.4 Copper Trends
1.4.1 Global Copper Mine Production

Figure 10 shows the global mining trends from 1900-2020 and shows an annual
growth of 3.1% in mining production in 120 years. The total amount of mine
production reaches 21.1 Mt in 2021 which was less than 5 Mt back in 1950. SX-EW
method started in 1960s and in 2021 reached to overall production of 3.9 Mt [4].

Figure 10. Global copper mining [4]

Figure 11 shows the global mining production by region from 1960 to 2021. There is
significant increase in copper mine production in Latin America from 19% in 1960 to
41% in 2021. Asia also increased mine production from 6% to 17% in this time span.
But on the other hand, North America mine production share decreased significantly
from 36% to 12% [4].

9
 Figure 11. Global copper mining production by region [4]

Figure 12 shows top 20 countries in copper mine production. Chile is on top capturing
almost 3rd of copper mine production in 2021 containing in total of 5.6 Mt copper
production. Peru is second largest producer of copper by mine production and in
2021 the total production was around 2.3 Mt [4].

10
 Figure 12. Global copper mining production by country [4]

Figure 13 shows the trends in mining capacity from 2000-2026 and it is estimated
that in 2026 copper mining capacity will reach 31.2 Mt in which 18.8% share is SX-EW
process. In 2021 global mining capacity recorded is 26 Mt so an increase of 14.2% is
predicted by 2026. An estimation of annual growth of 2.5% is predicted due to new
mining capacity addition and advancement in present mining operations. This is
important to know that this data is based on production capabilities on existing
mining capacities and their operations and not depends on production forecast. The
chart is based on capacity utilization rate which is calculated as ratio between
production and capacity and in 2021 the utilization rate of global mine capacity was
observed around 81.4% [4].

11
 Figure 13. Copper mining capacity 2021-2026 [4]

Figure 14 shows top 20 mines in the world by capacity on 2022 basis with Escondida
in Chile on top. Grasberg in Indonesia is second and on 3rd position is Collahuasi mine
in Chile. This data is also based on production capabilities on existing mining
capacities and their operations [15].

Figure 14. Top 20 copper mines 2022 [15]

12
1.4.2 Global Copper Smelter Production

Figure 15 shows the world copper smelter production from 1980 to 2021 including
primary and secondary feed. In 1980 globally smelter copper production was around
7.5 Mt which reached 21.4 Mt in 2021 [4].

Figure 15. Global copper smelter production from 1980-2021 [4]

Figure 16 shows the global copper smelting capacity by technology from 2000 to
2026. In 2000 dominating copper smelting capacity technology was Flash/ continuous
smelting with 58.8% global share which rise to 65.5% in 2021 and expected to rise to
60% in 2026. Chinese technology of copper smelting first appeared in 2004 and it is
estimated that it will be around 18% in global smelting capacity in 2026. Significant
downfall noticed in reverberatory/blast/rotary technologies from 19.9% in 2000 to
6.6% in 2026 [4].

13
 Figure 16. Global copper smelting capacity 2000-2026 [4]

Figure 17 shows the trend in copper smelting production by region from 1990 to 2021
with a significant rise in Asia from 21% in 1990 to 65% in 2021 due to the Chinese
growth and rapid expansion in global share of copper smelting production [4].

Figure 17. Regional copper smelter production 1990-2021 [4]

Figure 18 shows top 20 countries in copper smelter production and again China is on
top in 2021 with 50% share. Japan is on second and Chile on third position with 7%

14
and 6% of global copper smelter production, respectively [4]. Figure 19 shows list of
top 20 smelters in the world based on 2022 in which top of the list is Guixi smelter in
China and second one is Birla copper smelter in India [4].

Figure 18. Copper smelter production in 2021 by country [4]

Figure 19. Top 20 copper smelters by capacity [4]

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2. Future Copper Demand and Supply
2.1 Future Copper Mines Projects
Future mines projects in pipeline are shown in Figure 20 in which projects in orange
are currently operating and in blue are projects which are planned to start up until
2026 and they are critical to operate to cope with future demand and supply issue.
While projects in other colors are planned to start up after 2026. The status of these
projects is under evaluation and development stage. These mine projects have
individual capacities of 100,000 tons of copper and combined annual production rate
of around 10 Mt of copper annually [4].

Figure 20. Copper Mine Projects (ICSG) [4]

To fulfill future copper demand new mines projects are required to increase the
copper production [16]. The top undeveloped future copper mines projects that can
contribute to fulfill future copper demand are described here:

Pebble project (permitting stage) is estimated to contain 37.18 Mt of copper in

Alaska, United States. It is considered to be the largest mine project of North America
if permitted, but there are some controversy and environmental issues delaying it

16
[17]. This project has been estimated to have 6.46 billion tons of ore containing 0.40%
grade copper ore [18]. The Pebble project is open pit mine with porphyry type of
deposit containing copper, gold, molybdenum, silver and rhenium reserves and total
life of this mine (LOM) project is estimated to 20 years [19].

Resolution project located in Arizona is underground mine type project containing

estimated 28 Mt of copper resources having LOM of 40 years. The total estimated
resource is 1.626 billion ton with 1.47% of copper. The deposit type is porphyry
containing copper and molybdenum. This project is estimated to produce 18 billion
kilogram of copper and when operational thought to be one of largest underground
mines containing huge copper reserves [17,20].

La Granja project located in Peru has estimated 12 years LOM containing 22.06 Mt
of copper resource. The status of this project is in advanced exploration. This project
is also porphyry deposit rich in copper with ore grade of 0.56 % as well as arsenic
resource [17,21,22].

KSM Project (Kerr- Sulphurets Mitchell) located in British Columbia, Canada which is
undeveloped project estimated to have 21.25 Mt of copper resource. This mine
would be open pit with porphyry deposit type containing copper, gold, silver, and
molybdenum reserves. The expected LOM of this project is 33 years [17,23].

Nueva Union Project located in Chile would be open pit mine with estimated LOM of
18 years with porphyry deposit containing copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver
deposit. This project estimated to have 16.69 Mt of copper resources and expected
to raise copper production to 224,000 tons during the first 5 years of its production
from start [17,24].

Tampakan Project which is in Mindanao Island in Philippines containing 15.25 Mt of

copper resources with estimated LOM of 17 years and this project can produce
375,000 tons of copper on yearly basis [17]. This mine project consists of 2.94 billion
tons of ore with ore grade of 0.6% copper [25].

17
El Pachon Project is also considered a major undeveloped copper mine located in
Argentina containing almost 15.04 Mt of copper resource with 0.65% grade copper
ore with LOM of 20 years. This project is estimated to have an annual production of
400,000 tons of copper [17,26].

Los Azules project located in San Juan province of Argentina consists of 13.42 Mt of
copper resources having copper ore grade of 0.48% with 37 years of LOM. This
project is estimated to have 32.9 billion pounds of resources including copper, gold,
and silver deposit [17,27].

Twin Metals Project located in Minnesota, United States containing 12.96 Mt of

copper resource with copper ore grade of 0.59%. This in underground mine with LOM
of 25 years. The mine consists of copper, cobalt, nickel, gold, palladium, and platinum
resources [17,28].

Frieda River Project would be open pit mine located in Papua New Guinea containing
12.45 Mt of copper resources with LOM of 33 years and copper ore grade of 0.50%.
The major deposit of this mine consists of copper and gold ores [17,29,30].

Beside from above mentioned future copper projects there are several projects
which are planned to start up in 2026 in order to cope with the global copper demand
[4]: Quebrada Blanca mine phase 2 located in Chile which has been estimated to
produce 3 Mt of copper per year during first 5 years of its production and having LOM
of 25 years [31]; Almalyk mine located in Uzbekistan consisting of copper and gold
reserves having copper ore grade of 0.39% with estimated of 24 Mt of copper
resources [32]; Udokan mine located in Russia which is largest copper deposit in this
country having an annual production of 1.35 Mt of copper with copper ore grade of
1.05 % [33]; Santo Domingo copper mine in Chile with annual average production of
0.064 Mt of copper with LOM of 18 years with 0.3% of copper ore grade [34,35].
Besides from all these projects several other projects as shown in Figure 20 are in
pipeline like Quellaveco project in Peru and Kamoa-Kakula copper mine project in
Democratic Republic of the Congo and You Tolgoi mine in Mangolia can start their
production soon as planned [36].

18
Copper mines have minimum of 5 years and maximum of 70 years of life in average
as shown in Figure 21 [37]. Figure 22 shows the average life of future copper mines
planned to start in 2026 based on the above information. Future copper projects
predicted to operate in 2026 have low LOM with only resolution project having high
LOM of 40 year and then KSM and Frieda River having 33 years of LOM. The top 20
copper mines shown in Figure 14 currently producing large amount of copper, their
remaining LOM is presented in Figure 23.

Figure 21. Average mine life of different commodities [37]

19
 45
40
40 37
35 33 33
30
25 25
25
Years

20 20
20 18 17
15 12
10
5
0

Projects

Figure 22. Future Copper Mine Projects estimated LOM

100
90 86
80
70
70
57 55
60
49
Years

50 42
40 36 36
31 30 29
30 23 21
18 17 15
20 11 9
10 6
0

Top 20 copper mines

Figure 23. Top 20 Copper Mine Projects remaining LOM [38]

In addition, seabed which is still undiscovered is believed to have copper and other
important metals reserves as well as deep sea below 200 m covers huge area of earth
surface that is around 360 million km2 around 50 % of earth [39,40]. But the main
challenge is how can the sea floor be explored without any harm to marine life. This
responsibility comes on the shoulder of regulating authority which is International

20
Seabed Authority (ISA) to ensure that marine life should be protected from any sea
exploration activities [41]. Two offshore projects are being identified by ICSG which
are thought to be copper producing project in the near future. One is Solwara 1
project in Papua New Guinea in Bismarck Sea with copper ore grade of around 7%
[42]. Other polymetallic nodules project in zone of Clarion-Clipperton in Pacific
Ocean, which is rich source of important metals like manganese, copper, nickel,
cobalt, molybdenum, and other rare earth metals [43].

So, these future copper mine projects indicate that there is no such resource
shortage, and these resources can solve the copper supply problem but the
challenges which mines are facing can disrupt future copper supply and demand.
Currently 250 copper mines are operating in the world consisting of 40 countries with
overall copper production of 21 Mt which is 30% greater from the past 10 years but
copper mines are facing tremendous challenges involving political instability, water
shortage, social opposition, environmental and taxation which can disturb the future
copper supply and demand gap [36]. The copper mines that are currently in operation
and the copper mines that are being planned have a lot of hope for copper
production, but this is the best-case scenario that everything goes as planned. For a
new copper mine to become operational, it takes almost 15 years from exploration
to production if everything goes smoothly. One of these challenges that copper mines
face is political instability in their countries, because due to this political instability
and social opposition, the future copper mine project is always at risk of being
delayed or permanently closed. This is seen in two major copper producing countries
of Chile and Peru where from last 2 years civil unrest situation could disrupt the
copper mining industry due to constitutional changes, taxation, water rights issue and
other environmental and governance issues [44].

The other main technical challenge which copper miners are facing is declined copper
ore grade and in just past 5 years almost 25 % of declined copper ore grade has been
observed. Figure 24 shows the ore grade versus rock to metal ratio comparison of
metals. Due to low ore grade, energy consumption of copper mines increased by 46%
relative to production which increased only 30% so higher energy consumption rate

21
is bigger challenge for copper mines than production rate [45]. Beside from this low
copper ore grade, the mines are getting deeper and deeper in search of base metal
reserves and this, in turn, give tremendous increase in additional cost for the whole
operation as shown in Figure 25. Decrease in copper ore grade also give rise to
unwanted impurities like arsenic which is potential and hazardous for air and water.
As in Chilean concentrate the amount of arsenic has been increased and almost
doubled in the last 20 years giving rise to higher production cost. There are in addition
other major challenges like water shortage and climate stress including flooding, dam
failure due to tailings and waste storage which copper mines are facing especially in
Australia and South America [36].

Figure 24. Ore grade vs. rock to metal ratio comparison [46]

22
 Figure 25. Depth of base metal deposits between 1900 and 2015 [47]

2.2 Overall Copper Demand and Supply Forecast

In most recent studies [48] copper demand is estimated to increase at high pace and
will double by 2035 from 25 Mt in 2021 to almost 49 Mt which is not far from now.
This growth is due to race towards green energy technologies and major
development in other sectors that include construction advancement around the
world, brass hardware, cell phones, appliances, industrial revolution, commercial,
consumer, transportation and boom in EVs by different previous studies
[11,48,49,50-54].

Figure 26 shows the copper demand trend till 2050 from both energy transition
sector and nonenergy transition sector indicated that copper demand will rise for
energy transition sector till 2035 and will be at their high level up to 21 Mt and then
will gradually decline in 2040s and then again little bit increased till 2050. But on other
side copper demand will grow continually for other traditional sectors till 2050 and
overall demand will increase to 53 Mt in 2050 for both sectors which is nearly double
as compared to 2021. Present the top five countries which are consuming refined
copper are China, United States, Germany, Japan, and South Korea due to their
industrial growth. But in 2050 due to the growing industrialization India, Vietnam and

23
Mexico will come in top five including China and United States as shown in Figure 27
[48].

Figure 26. Copper demand till 2050 [48]

Figure 27. Top copper-consuming countries 2021-2050 [48]

The global copper demand forecast shown in Figure 28 indicates that China will
remain on top due to large population and per capita usage of copper including India,
Vietnam, and Mexico in the line.

24
 Figure 28. Top copper-consuming countries per capita 2050 [48]

The above demand forecast indicates that copper demand will increase to almost
double in the near future by 2035. This is due to major developments in green energy
technologies, EVs as well as in non-transition energy sectors. Forecasted copper
demand from 2022 to 2050 is higher than all the copper we used globally from 1900
to 2021. The study has been done by using two scenarios between demand and
supply forecast: High Ambition scenario and Rocky Road scenario. The high ambition
scenario is based on past levels of performance and increase in recycling rate in
future and if in future everything goes smoothly with that scenario. The rocky road
scenario is based on present and past trends to last many years. Both trends
estimated the supply and demand gap in both energy and non-energy transition
markets. The study indicated that in high ambition scenario the supply and demand
gap will be higher than 1 Mt between 2025-2040 with higher shortfall of 1.6 Mt has
been observed in year 2035 and then 1.3 Mt in 2045 as shown in Figure 29 [48].

25
 Figure 29. Global copper supply and demand 2050 [48]

Meanwhile the top five countries in global copper mining in 2021 will remain the
same as in 2050 in the high ambition scenario with overall increase in both primary
and secondary production. The only change is observed in year 2050 as Russia taking
the 5th place replacing United States due to its two new copper mines coming into
operation and start production from 2026 as shown in Figure 30. In addition, top five
copper refining countries will remain the same from 2021 to 2050 in the high
ambition scenario as shown in Figure 31 [48].

Figure 30. Top copper mining countries 2050 [48]

26
 Figure 31. Top copper refining countries 2050 [48]

On the other hand, in the rocky road scenario the supply and demand gap is almost
9.9 Mt in 2035 and then gradually decreasing till 2050 as shown in Figure 32[48]. Top
mining countries in the rocky road scenario will remain the same from 2021 to 2050
with only Russia taking over United States from 2035 to 2050 as shown in Figure 33.
In addition, top refining countries in the rocky road scenario will remain same except
Russia taking over United States place in 2050 as shown in Figure 34 [48].

Figure 32. Global copper supply and demand 2050 [48]

27
 Figure 33. Top mining countries 2050 [48]

Figure 34. Top copper refining countries 2050 [48]

Global copper demand is growing at an alarming rate, with a noticeable gap between
demand and supply, and yet many operational challenges facing the copper industry
may widen the gap further, as predicted in the high ambition and the rocky road
scenarios above [48].

One of these challenges is the poor infrastructure of supply chain transportation from
copper mines to refineries and to the end market. Licensing and permitting is another
challenge for the copper industry as different laws and policies are implemented in
different countries due to different legal constraints, which disturb the supply and
demand gap. Renewal of existing contracts, taxes and regulations, political issues by
major sourcing countries are another challenge as due to higher demand of copper
and in turn future high prices, these countries can make their position clearer due to

28
their ownership of high value metal market and can cancel or bring changes in
contracts resulting in disturbance in supply and demand [44,55].

Environmental standards are another operational challenge facing the copper

industry, including emissions, water scarcity, waste management and deforestation.
Climate change is another prominent challenge facing the copper chain, especially in
mining, as rain, floods, droughts, and forest fires can disrupt mining operations,
resulting in a gap between global copper supply and demand [44,55].

Pandemics such as Covid-19 and war situations around the world are another
potential challenge [56]. But to cope with supply and demand there are some
solutions and, in case of copper, good news are that it can be recycled and will not
lost its properties, so copper can be recycled and reused in future. Increasing the
recycling rate of copper can slightly reduce the gap between supply and demand.
Innovation in technology can lead to a reduction in the overall cost of the operation
and could lead to a reduction in the gap between supply and demand [48,57].

2.3 Production Technologies

Due to the rise in copper demand innovation is needed in production technologies to

increase copper production during smelting process as around 80% production of
primary copper came from pyrometallurgical process. Innovation in smelting
technologies to decrease copper losses, saving energy and reducing flue gases which
lead to environmental hazards are much more needed [58].

Flash smelting is an important technology to produce copper in combination with

bath smelting techniques [59]. The 20th century marks the development of
Outokumpu flash smelting and since then the process has been developed further
[60]. In the past 70 years flash smelting process is evolved to produce copper due to
its major advantages in high copper yield, low energy consumption, more online
availability, and less carbon footprint [61].

29
Several processes have been developed by adopting the bath smelting method such
as IsaSmelt/Ausmelt, Vanyukov, Noranda/EI Teniente, Mitsubishi, and BBS (Bottom
Blowing Smelting), SBF (Side Blowing Furnace) as bath smelting are considered
alternatives to flash smelting [62-65]. The main disadvantage of flash smelting is the
generation of a large amount of dust in the furnace, which requires dust treatment
or return back to the furnace [2].

As Chinese production with the bath smelting is growing, the Chinese government is
focusing on adopting mature smelting technologies. ENFI and Shuikoushan
developed the SKS (oxygen bottom blowing) process. The Chinese have also built new
double flash smelters in recent years, which include both flash smelting and
converting. The Chinese are also focusing on TSL (ISA & Ausmelt), oxygen-enriched
flash smelting and side blowing smelting processes [66]. In Sweden, a recent study
[67] has been carried out at Boliden Rönnskär smelter to reduce the amount of
copper losses in the slag to increase copper recovery. The main parameters were the
settling time and the temperature in the settling furnace to see their effect on the
total copper content in the slag. The result of that study indicates that the copper
content increased with increasing temperature, while the copper content decreased
with slag modification with calcium oxide. It is concluded from the study that calcium
oxide is a potential candidate to be used as a modifier to increase copper recovery
from slag by keeping the temperature low at around 1250 C.

Another addition to the flash smelting technology is being made independently by

China by replacing the central jet distribution burner with XGC cyclone burner in the
flash converting furnace. Since 2020, XGC cyclone burners have been used in five
smelters, but all these smelters are in China. The replacement of the XGC cyclone
burner is said to have solved many problems previously encountered in the flash
converting furnace, such as matte segregation, high risk of failure and high heating in
the reaction shaft. The XGC cyclone burner is a future trend in flash smelting
technology in China [68].

30
Carbon emissions are a minor problem in the flash smelting technology, and they are
produced by the combustion of fuel and electricity during the process. Most countries
are committed to reducing carbon emissions before 2030 and becoming carbon
neutral by 2060. This future trend is to achieve the technology with low carbon
emission and less energy consumption. China has adopted eight technologies, shown
in Figure 35. So far, the first technology, Blast/Reverberatory/Electric/Converter
furnace, has disappeared from the scene. The FSF+FCF process is used in a total of
five smelters in China, with one smelter under construction [69]. It is estimated that
carbon emissions in FSF+FCF (flash smelting and converting) and SBF+MTC (side
blowing oxygen enriched and multi lance top continued converting) are lower and
can be further reduced in the future [69,70].

SBF+MTC smelter technology has been adopted in many plants and is growing, as the
SBF+MTC technology has been proven to be cost effective, can achieve high
production and high raw material adaptability with good control on automation as
Tang et al. recommended in a conference paper [71].

Figure 35. China adoption in copper smelting technologies [69]

The Outotec flash smelting process from Metso Outotec, Finland, has been
continuously improved since its inception and many plants are in operation around
the world. Recent developments are made in the burner by adding Flash Guard,
which is an advanced monitoring system for optimum condition of the burner during

31
operation. Another development has been made by optimizing the air distribution to
the air chamber located in the burner and discharge outlet and optimizing the
distribution of feed to the burner outlet [72]. Thus, the main focus for the future is to
develop and modify existing technologies to reduce energy consumption in a cost
effective manner, to increase the overall capture of sulfur content, to modify the
technologies to process the low grade copper ore, to increase the overall % recovery
of valuable metals during the process, to develop an environmentally friendly process
by reducing greenhouse gases and less waste, and to develop larger plants with
durable equipment to increase the production size [73].

2.4 Copper Recycling

Due to the increasing demand for copper, recycling and recovery of copper has
attracted attention because this precious metal can be used repeatedly and does not
lose its physical and chemical properties [74,75]. The quality of copper is the same
whether it comes from primary production or from secondary production. The
importance of recycling is that we can obtain copper in an environmentally friendly
way as recycling requires less energy and thus less carbon emissions than the
production of copper from mining [76]. Another positive impact of recycling copper
scrap, especially electronic scrap, is that we can recover not only copper but also
some other precious metals such as gold, nickel, silver, zinc, and lead. Copper
recycling can play its part in keeping up with copper demand. According to the ICSG
2021 report, about 33% of copper use globally is from recycled copper and some of
the countries rely mainly on recycled copper, but this is also important to know that
recycling of copper can play a role, but globally copper demand cannot be met
without the mining of copper ores [4]. Figure 36 shows the global copper
consumption including recycling from 2005 to 2021 [4]. Copper can be recycled from
the different scrap containing low percentage of copper to nearly 100 % of copper
from different sources as shown in Table 2 [77].

32
 Figure 36. Global copper use including recycling [4]

Table 2. Copper content in scrap [80]

Copper scrap can be divided into different categories. Direct or domestic scrap
usually refers to the scrap produced at the producer's site, such as a smelter or
refinery, and this scrap has high degree of purity. New scrap usually refers to scrap
generated during the downstream manufacturing process. Old scrap is usually
generated from products that have reached the end of their useful life [77,78]. Old
scrap is a potential candidate for copper recovery and recycling, but it is challenging

33
to process this old scrap due to the low copper grade, as old scrap is usually difficult
to separate from the bulk of the miscible waste. Old scrap is also very dispersed and
difficult to place in one location. Old scrap has been divided into six categories
according to its copper content [79]. End of life vehicles (ELVs) contain 0.8% copper
[78]. Construction and demolition (C&D) contain 0.30% copper [80]. Waste electrical
and electronic equipment (WEEE), or simply e-waste, typically contains 3-21% copper
and represents a potential market for copper recycling. Industrial electrical
equipment waste (IEW) contains 5-80% copper and is high copper scrap, but this
waste generation is very low [78]. Industrial non-electrical equipment waste (INEW)
has a very small amount of copper content that is not yet known [82]. Municipal solid
waste (MSW) also contains smaller amounts of copper, ranging from 0.05-0.20% [78].

WEEE is becoming an important candidate for the recovery of precious metals

through urban mining, including copper, due to the decreasing copper ore grade and
therefore WEEE is a good alternative to be used as a secondary raw material for
copper smelting [85]. In 2019, approximately 53.6 Mt of e-waste was generated
worldwide [53] and 57.4 Mt in 2021 [147], of which 21% was generated in the last 5
years. It is expected that the amount of e-waste will increase to 74 Mt globally in
2030, which is why WEEE has become a potential source for recovering valuable
metals. The collection and recycling rate of e-waste was only 17.4% in 2019 using
various advanced and sustainable methods [86]. This is still a big challenge to process
WEEE and recover precious metals from the waste and many laboratory scale
methods have been developed so far and some of these methods are implemented
on an industrial scale [87-89].

According to the report, the value of these metals present in WEEE in 2019 was
approximately USD 57 billion [90]. Recycling and recovery of metals from WEEE is not
only important in the sense that the demand for these metals, especially copper, will
increase up to 300% by 2050, but it is also a more economical and environmentally
friendly way to recover metals than primary copper production and can save almost
85% of energy and reduce carbon emissions [90,91]. Copper is included in the group
of base metals (BMs) of WEEE including Al, Sn, Ni, Zn, Fe [84]. Printed circuit boards

34
(PCBs) are the main source in WEEE due to its high amount of copper from 6-40% in
PCBs [88]. The overall processing of WEEE from collection to recovery of valuable
metals is shown in Figure 37 [83,84].

Figure 37. WEEE recycling route [83,84]

In addition to WEEE pre-processing methods, many integrated pyrometallurgical

plants are in operation worldwide to process WEEE and recover valuable metals, such
as Umicore Integrated Smelter and Refinery [93] in Hoboken, Belgium, Aurubis
System [94] in Lunen, Germany, Rönnskär Smelter in Sweden [88,89], Dowa Smelter
in Japan [83] and Noranda in Canada [83,84]. Due to the increasing amount of WEEE
and the presence of valuable metals in this waste stream, legislation is underway
worldwide. Due to the pandemic situation and the rapid shift towards artificial
intelligence, the demand for electronic equipment such as computers and tablets has
increased by 4.6% per year, according to a survey report by the European Union
Parliament. European Union has set the highest target to collect WEEE and then
recycle it to recover and recycle valuable metals under the 2012/19/EU law. China,

35
India, and Latin America are also taking significant steps towards WEEE legislation
[95].

There is still a lot of work to be done on WEEE management, as only 25-35% of the
WEEE generated worldwide is currently managed properly [96,97]. Therefore,
countries need to take radical action to mobilize NGOs and young entrepreneurs to
motivate and pay attention to e-waste research and development. Radical changes
towards a circular economy approach and urban mining of WEEE and modification of
equipment are needed. To date, there are few countries where WEEE legislation is
properly implemented from collection to recycling [98].

2.5 Copper slag

Copper slag is produced in large amounts worldwide and it is considered a valuable

waste due to presence of valuable metals in it [99]. It is estimated that from 1999-
2019 in total of 20 years 752 Mt of copper slag has been generated in top 13 countries
as shown in Figure 38 [101].

Figure 38. Copper slag production worldwide 1999-2019 [101]

36
Chile produced around 243 Mt of copper slag in 20 years which is highest from any
other countries. Peru produced around 60 Mt of copper slag followed by United
States, China, and Australia as shown in Figure 39. It has been estimated that
generation of copper slag is 2.2 ton per one ton of copper produced [126] so a graph
has been plotted to estimate future copper slag generation based on forecasted
copper production as shown in Figure 40.

Figure 39. Copper slag production in different countries 1999-2019 [101]

140

120

100

80
Mt

60

40

20

0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

Forecasted copper production Copper slag generation

Figure 40. Forecasted copper slag generation 2020-2050

37
Copper slags generated during the pyrometallurgical route of producing copper that
are copper smelter slag, converter slag and refining copper slag. If flotation is used in
the process, then tailings generated as by product which is another class of waste.
The copper slag which is generated in electric arc slag refining furnace is different
than slag from fire refining [101].

Copper slag is a potential source to recover metals such as Cu, Co, Zn, Ag and due to
its large amount production worldwide it is important to process copper smelting,
converting and fire refining slag. This is interesting to know that average copper grade
is 1.19 wt% in copper slag while the copper grade from ore is less than that. So, it is
important to process and treat the copper slag to recover valuable metals including
copper [101].

To treat copper slag major processing strategies which have been investigated are
flotation, pyrometallurgy, hydrometallurgy and integration of pyrometallurgy and
hydrometallurgy methods. Several researchers have investigated the copper slag to
recover copper by flotation method by using different collectors, depressants,
modifiers and frothers [102-106]. In flotation method of metal recovery copper slag
cooling rates are important parameters to be considered after the smelting and
converting step [107] as copper recovery can be increased when slag was cooled
slowly and gradually [103].

The other method which has been considered for treatment of copper slag is
hydrometallurgical method by leaching. The important parameters in this method to
be considered are temperature, leaching time and system, amount of extractant
concentrations, solid and liquid ratio. Several studies have been done on the
treatment of copper slag using leaching by applying sulphuric acid and combination
of an oxidant with sulphuric acid [108-116]. The major problem with leaching method
is the formation of silica gel and generation of iron hydroxide in precipitates form as
this formation alternatively increase difficulty in next process of filtration. The other
drawback is the usage of large amount of sulphuric acid in leaching method.
However, a study [115] indicates that formation of silica gel can be reduced by using

38
an oxidant such as sodium chlorate and a neutralizer such as calcium hydroxide. The
results show that by this method not only formation of silica gel can be reduced but
also it can ease the filtration process.

Copper slag treatment has also been investigated by several researchers [117-121]
by pyrometallurgical method in which recoveries of valuables metals can be done by
applying carbothermic reduction. In carbothermic reduction process temperature
conditions have been kept between 1400-1800 C. A study conducted by Acma et al.
[118] of copper slag treatment under carbothermal reduction at high temperature of
1800 C in DC arc furnace. In this method iron oxide was partially reduced to metallic
phase and then the material was subjected to leaching by using sulphuric acid and
hydrogen sulfide for the purification of solution and after those precipitates of iron
formed as goethite and separation of copper sulfide was achieved [118]. Sanchez and
Sudbury [121] conducted the study of copper slag treatment to recover copper by
using carbon in which magnetite is reduced.

The most common method of treating copper slag by integrating pyrometallurgy and
hydrometallurgy is by roasting and then leaching by using water or acid. Different
researchers used different roasting agents for these methods including sulphuric
acid, graphite, ferric sulphate, ammonium chloride as well as ammonium sulphate
and then leaching with water or acid [108,109,114,122-125]. A method was adopted
to achieve maximum copper recovery of almost 94% in which copper slag was roasted
at 250 C by using sulphuric acid as leaching agent. In this method iron content was
55% dissolved in leaching liquor which can be reduced to 6% when temperature
increased to 600 C but it affected the copper recovery from 94% to 79% [125].

To manage copper slag is still a challenge and current practice for large amount of
copper slag waste management depend on linear flow model which follows the route
of produce and then use and dump. This model is not environmentally friendly as to
dispose such large amount of copper slag has serious health risk [100,105,121,126-
128]. To dispose of such large amount of copper slag globally by using linear model
required large area for landfilling which is unsustainable [129,130]. Thus, the future

39
trend towards copper slag waste management lies in circular economy approach
which fulfill the requirement of sustainability as circular economy approach can be
not only economical but also social and environment friendly approach [130]. Circular
economy approach focuses on recovery of valuable metals from copper slag [101].
Mining industry can use this waste as potential resource to extract copper and other
metals instead of extracting copper from primary ores from mining operation which
needs large amount of energy. Energy can be saved, and copper slag can be utilized
to extract metals. Thus, by approaching circular economy model not only saves the
energy but also reduce the copper slag waste [131].

By using circular economy approach and after extracting the valuable metals the
remaining waste can be utilized in different sectors. Several researchers have
suggested the use of copper slag as construction material in which copper slag can
be used in road pavement, cement clinker, concrete and to produce Portland cement
[112, 132-135]. A recent study concluded the copper slag can be a potential candidate
for producing high temperature phase change materials for thermal energy storage
system by improving the overall storage capacity and thermal diffusivity and
conductivity [136].

40
3. Discussion
3.1 Forecasted copper demand Vs supply

Copper demand is increasing at a fast pace and is forecasted to double in 2035 from
21Mt to 49Mt. Based on the data in Figure 26 and 41, copper demand is increasing
in the Energy Transition and Non-Energy Transition sectors. Copper production
forecast is not sufficient to meet this fast growing demand. The copper demand will
be high due to increase in renewables energy resources and increase in
transportation sector due to EVs. The forecasted copper production in this model is
based on 2% annual increase.

Figure 41. Forecasted copper demand vs supply 2015-2060. Adapted from [144]

This is quite clear that future of copper is challenging as copper production is not
sufficient to meet with the increasing copper demand and due to this supply and
demand gap all the sectors especially renewable energy resources and EVs will suffer
in the future. It is important to note that from 2021 to 2035, copper demand is
forecasted to double due to the race towards green energy technologies and

41
increasing demand for electric vehicles. After 2050 to 2100, copper demand forecast
increases by only 4 Mt every 5 years. This data only reflects that after 2050 the
demand for green energy technologies and electric vehicles may not be higher than
today. However, copper demand will continue normal increase after 2050 due to
population growth and development in non-energy sectors.

Another speculation can also be made about the future energy technologies and if
these energy technologies come into reality in the future, then copper demand will
decrease. These potential future energy technologies are fusion energy and hydrogen
energy and if in the future we can adopt these technologies on a commercial level,
then copper demand towards green energy technologies will decrease.

3.2 Copper mines production forecast and copper demand

Future mining projects are key to bridging the future gap between copper supply and
demand. These projects are expected to be operational in 2026 and have a total
annual capacity of 10.1 Mt which is very important.

According to the reports [4,137] copper mine production is forecasted to increase by

2.5-3.2 % in future based on the current and future copper mines projects. And by
taking 3% of annual mining growth a graph has been plotted between forecasted
mine production and forecasted copper demand shown in Figure 42.

42
 60

50

40
Mt
30
49
20 40
31 31,8
27,5
10 21,1 25 23,7

0
2021 2025 2030 2035
Year

Forecasted mine production Forecasted copper demand

Figure 42. Forecasted copper mine capacity and demand 2021-2035

Figure 42 clearly shows that forecasted copper demand is higher than forecasted
mine production. In 2025 a deficit of 7 Mt, in 2030 deficit of 13 Mt and in 2035 deficit
of almost 20 Mt can be seen. Based on this model it is predicted that we have a short
fall of 20 Mt till 2035 and this high shortfall will affect the energy transition sectors
towards, production of EVs and non-energy transition sectors.

The challenges facing the mining industry are enormous. The biggest challenge is the
decline in the copper ore grade and deeper deposit. This challenge is not only faced
by the current mining operations but also by the new mining operations yet to be
started. To meet the demand, miners are processing substantial amounts of ore, but
this results in an increase in overall operating costs. Due to diminishing near-surface
copper resources, block caving is used by miners to go deeper to extract copper ores,
and this is a costly operation.

Copper deposits, which used to be much cleaner and not as deep as today, are being
depleted. The complex copper concentrate also contains impurities, which is a
challenge for smelters. Arsenic is one of the impurities that is not only toxic but can
also affect the conductivity of the copper. Fluorine levels are also increasing in some

43
mines. The presence of impurities and increasing levels are potential challenges for
copper mining. Many other challenges faced by copper miners include issues of
politics, contracts and permits, infrastructure, taxation and regulation, and civil
instability. Chile and Peru, which are the major copper mining countries, have been
facing serious political and civil instability issues in recent years. The unusual change
of government and politicians has severely affected the copper mining industry in
their countries. Social resistance to mining has also been observed in recent years
due to political opposition and environmental activists. This challenge needs to be
addressed as political instability could severely affect mining operations and delay
not only current mines but also future mines for years.

To meet the copper demand, present and future mines are key to be in smooth
operation and for this these political issues need to be resolved. An International
Copper Regulatory Authority (ICRA) should be established with the support of world's
major strong economic countries, and it would work to resolve these operational
issues in copper mining industry to meet the copper demand for the future. ICRA
could play a role to declare a global copper emergency by categorizing the use of
copper, which means that copper should only be used where there is no other
alternative. We can stop using copper in window and door frames, jewelry, roofing,
plumbing, doorknobs, handrails, art, clocks, and musical instruments. ICRA could also
play a role in promoting global collection of WEEE and support regulations for not
wasting WEEE.

44
3.3 Future production technologies

Based on the historical data in Figure 16 the future trend of production technologies
in 2026 and 2052 can be seen in Figure 43 down below.

Electric
Other/unknown 3,70%
2,30%
Modified
Reverb/Convert
7,10%

Reverb/Blast/Rotary
6,60%

Flash/Continuous
62,10%
Chinese Technology
18,20%

SMELTING CAPACITY TECHNOLOGY TYPE 2026

Other/unknown 4,1%
Electric 1,5%

Chinese Technology
29%
Flash/Continuous 65,4%

SMELTING CAPACITY TECHNOLOGY TYPE 2052

Figure 43. Expected share of production technologies 2026-2052

The future trend showed that flash/continuous and Chinese technology will
dominate. This model is created based on production technology trend in Figure 16
from 2000-2026. There is no data available of future production technology growth
so from historical data it is estimated that from 2000-2026 flash/continuous
increased by 3.3 % from 58.8% to 62.1% in 26 years of time. So, in 2052 flash/

45
continuous technology share is forecasted to be 65.4%. and by this model Chinese
technology share will be 29% by 2052. Future production technology growth model
is predicted keeping in view the future trends towards latest technologies as world is
moving towards advance technologies with state-of-the-art automation, economical
and eco-friendly processes and from that it can be predicted that flash/continuous
and Chinese technology will dominate in future.

3.4 Copper smelters

As far as the global smelter capacity is concerned, in 2021 it was 21.4 Mt in total.
Copper demand will increase to almost 49 Mt in 2035, which is more than double
what it is today, and we do not have enough copper smelters units to meet this
demand-supply gap. We need more smelters to process high amounts of ores coming
from mines due to projected copper projects starting in 2026. This is a challenging
situation as the listed mining projects planned to start in 2026 Figure 20 have 10.1
Mt of copper capacity if started on time as we do not have smelter to process the
copper ores coming from these projects. The question is, how many new smelters do
we need? It is very difficult to say because if we install new smelters, it requires a lot
of capital investment and 2035 is not so far away. If we take as a reference point the
new mine projects that are expected to be operational in 2026, then we need almost
20 new smelters with an individual capacity of 500 ktpa. But we do not have the time
to manufacture and install that number of smelters worldwide. And it requires huge
capital investment. However, on a global level, countries with better economies can
invest in building new smelters in their respective countries to process as much of
the future copper ore coming from new mines as possible.

China can be potential investor and banks and financing companies in USA, India, and
Europe can be the potential investors.

46
3.5 Technology innovation

Meanwhile, technological innovation is also necessary to make the current processes

more economical and efficient with modern equipment including sensors and
advance automation, but it is a slow process and needs a lot of research and
development. Future trends are to build large plants with continuous process. Skilled
labor will be required by reducing excess manpower to shift plants to automatic by
using more advanced process automation and sensors. Recycling waste from the
plants and processing waste from other industries are also future priorities.

Outotec's flash furnace is widely used worldwide, and future developments are
aimed at further improving the overall design of the furnace, including the feed
system, burner, and cooling elements. Metso Outotec is making the smelting furnace
more advanced by making better control sensors and dust sulphation system [139].

Flash smelting and bath smelting are main technologies to produce copper and both
technologies will further flourish in future with more advance automation and
control. In the flash smelting copper concentrate direct reaction with oxygen give this
process an advantage due to high capacity and better automatic control. However,
in flash smelting process copper concentrate must be dried and fine so that the
reaction would be fast. And due to this limitation of dried concentrate not only feed
preparation is needed and in turn it produces large amount of dust. Flash smelting
process also has a limitation to treat copper containing scrap in large sizes. Bath
smelting is an alternative technology to flash smelting. In bath smelting copper
concentrate reaction with oxygen take place in molten bath. Bath smelting
technology can treat complex raw material in large sizes with high thermal efficiency
and rate of oxygen utilization [59].

Over the years, Metso Outotec has strengthened its technical and professional
capabilities, and many more Outotec furnaces can be installed worldwide in the
future. Recently, Metso Outotec signed an agreement with Kamoa Copper S.A. in the
Democratic Republic of Congo to supply the world's largest direct blister furnace with

47
a total capacity of 500 ktpa. This brings the total number of Outotec furnaces in
operation worldwide to 60 since 1950 [140].

Heap leaching with subsequent solvent extraction for lower grade copper ores is a
hydrometallurgical process of copper recovery accounting for 20% of primary copper
production. Heap leaching is mainly practiced in North and South American countries.
This technology is relatively economical, simple, and flexible and future trend
suggests it will further grow. Research and development are undergoing to increase
copper recovery by heap leaching method. In situ leaching is a better future option
due to its low cost and economical option for copper recovery [2,138].

3.6 Energy sector and EVs

Copper is essential in energy sector applications and in EVs and due to this copper
demand in energy sectors and EVs is growing to minimize the GHGs emission globally.
Figure 44 shows the intensity of copper in key energy sectors technologies. Copper
intensity is higher in solar PV, EVS, wind energy, batteries, and electricity networks
[48]. A conventional car uses 23 kg of copper, while EVs of different types use 40-369
kg of copper. Figure 45 shows the amount of copper used in kgs by different types of
EVs. By 2022, around 7 million units of different types of EVs were sold out globally
and it is expected that sale for EVs will reach 16 million units globally by 2027 as
shown in Figure 46 [92].

It is quite clear that to meet net zero emissions target we must move towards
renewable energy technologies and EVs and copper is essential for these
technologies and forecasted copper demand in Figure 41 is so much higher for solar
PV, EVs, wind energy, batteries, and electricity networks. However, from forecasted
copper production it can be stated that future is challenging for both EVs, and energy
transitions technologies and we cannot meet net zero emission by 2050.

48
Figure 44. Copper presence in energy transition technologies [48]

Figure 45. Copper content in kg in EVs [48]

49
 Figure 46. EVs sale globally [92]

3.7 Copper recycling

Copper recycling is necessary to meet future copper supply needs as copper does not
lose its properties when recycled. WEEE and copper slag are potential candidates for
processing and recovering copper and other precious metals. Governments should
take strict measures for collection and recovering WEEE in their respective countries
for recycling to recover precious metals. The recycling rate should be increased as
much as possible. European regulation on WEEE can be followed by other countries.

The biggest challenge is the collection of e-waste on global level. The data shows that
out of 53.6 Mt of e-waste generated in 2019 only 17% were collected and recycled.
About 83% in total 44.3 Mt of e-waste total worth of 57 Billon USD were wasted,
burned, or dumped. This wasted e-waste includes the recoverable metals such as
copper, gold, silver, and platinum. From 44.3 Mt e-waste total of 43.7 Mt were not
documented and this e-waste is supposed to be likely dumped and burned and
mostly recycled in a way which is not environment friendly. Remaining 0.6 Mt of e-

50
waste were reported to be wasted in waste bins in European countries as shows in
Figure 47 [53].

Figure 47. Amount of treated and wasted e-waste [53]

Historical trends shows that generation of e-waste will increase in future due to
increase in population and increase in per capita usage of electrical equipment’s. It is
estimated that amount of e-waste will increase by 2 Mt annually in future. So, in 2030
the total amount of e-waste generation will be 74.7 Mt [86] and 110 Mt in 2050 [145].
From that data a graph is plotted to show the potential amount of e-waste generation
in future keeping the annual increase of 2 Mt as shown in Figure 48.

There are many reasons for unmanaged e-waste globally. One of the reasons is
absence of legislation in many countries. Only 78 countries out of total 193 have
proper e-waste policy and regulation. However, some countries did not enforce this
regulation properly. The other reason is poor infrastructure of e-waste in many
countries. Low- and middle-income countries did not handle e-waste properly and do
not follow the environmentally sound processes. While high income countries follow

51
the treatment processes but still these countries mixed e-waste with other wastes
and export e-waste to low-income countries. Informal sectors are mostly responsible
in collecting and recycling of e-waste in low- and middle-income countries but they
follow the treatment processes which are not environmentally friendly and have
serious impact on health. Another reason is illegal import and export of e-waste as
secondhand products on global level [53].

As mentioned, that 83% of e-waste containing valuable metals has been wasted in
untreated way. The future of copper is challenge and this high amount of e-waste
should not be wasted. The major regulation is needed in order to recover e-waste
and recycle it to recover valuable metals including copper. The generation of e-waste
will increase in future as shown in Figure 48 due to increase in population, so this
large amount of e-waste is potential candidate to play its part to limit copper demand
and supply gap. The recycling of e-waste can play substantial role to recover copper
metal and this recover copper can be utilized for future need in energy transition and
non-energy transition sectors. For this proper handling of e-waste is necessary in
future and ICRA can play its role to make not only proper legislation but enforce to
follow these regulations strictly.
190
150
110
MT

74,7
53,6

2019 2030 2050 2070 2090

YEAR

Figure 48. Historical and forecasted amount of e-waste generation globally

52
3.8 Copper price vs. inventory

Copper price mainly depends on demand and supply. If inventory level is high and
demand is low, then copper price drop on global level. As shown in Figure 49 due to
Covid pandemic copper prices goes down significantly in March 2020 due to lock
down and economical crises globally. According to Cingari [142], 2022 remained
negative year for copper price almost falling 12% due to the increasing interest rates
and due to strict Covid lockdown in China. Figure 49 shows that copper inventory
level was low in year 2022.

Figure 49. Copper price vs inventory level [141]

Future of copper is challenging, and price of copper mainly depends upon supply and
demand gap. As copper demand is increasing and forecasted copper production
cannot meet this demand so in next decades copper price will go higher. According
to report by Fitch [143] future forecasted copper price will be higher due to higher

53
demand and low supply. Fitch estimated that copper price will remain USD 8400/
tonne in 2023 and by 2035 price will rise to USD 11,500/ tonne.

So due to high supply and demand gap in future copper price will remain higher as
S&P Global vice chairman Daniel Yergin stated that “The coming supply-demand gap
should be a wake-up call to leaders” [146].

54
4. Conclusions

According to literature copper demand will increase and become almost double in
2035 and around 300% in 2050 mainly due to growth in energy sector and increasing
demand of EVs on global scale. The growth of the copper demand will be stable after
2050 and is forecasted to increase only 4 Mt in every 5 years because the expected
lower production of green energy technology equipment. The copper demand can
become lower if future energy technologies like fusion and hydrogen power come
into operation on industrial scale.

Based on the historical data and forecasted technology trends it is concluded that
flash smelting/continuous and Chinese technology will dominate copper production
in the future. Also, the hydrometallurgical heap leaching process will grow further in
future due to lower copper ore grades especially in North and South America.

Based on the news by different mining agencies copper mines capacity will not be
able to meet forecasted copper demand. Most of copper mines are closing in the
near future including top copper mines. The future copper mines projects are crucial
to come into operation as soon as possible. Copper smelters capacity needs to
increase if future copper mines come into operation. But to increase copper smelters
units globally and starting new copper mines need high capital investments. China as
country while other strong economy banks and financing companies in USA, Europe
and India can be potential future investors.

Based on the literature, WEEE and copper slag are potential candidates to recover
copper and other precious metals. Copper recycling from WEEE must be further
increased and regulation of collection of WEEE must be tightened by the
governments. Copper slag waste management must adopt circular economy
approach and extracting of copper from copper slag is necessary for future copper
supply. Copper slag can also be utilized in other applications after treatment and
recovering of valuable metals. The potential utilization of copper slag can be in road

55
pavement, concrete, cement industry and in high temperature phase change
materials for thermal energy storage as suggested by different researchers.

An International Copper Regulatory Authority (ICRA) should be established as soon

as possible in each country and work to resolve issues to meet the copper demand
for the future. ICRA can play its role to start new mining projects which is the key to
meet copper demand. ICRA can enforce copper emergency and make regulation to
use copper where it is needed. Implementation of e-waste legislation and proper
treatment of copper slag can be priority.

Bases on literature, news articles and data it can be concluded that future of copper
is challenging. Future copper demand is higher and in future we are not able to cope
with this demand. Copper price will remain higher due to high demand and supply
gap and low inventory level in future. This demand supply deficit will affect all the
sectors in which copper is used that are energy transition sectors, production of EVs
as well as non-energy transition sectors.

56
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