July 15, 2024

Juan G. Barredo
Chief Technical Analyst
juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com
GLOBAL SCOREBOARD
Issue Current Change % YTD %
Philippines 6,648 38.99 0.59 3.07
Markets in Review Peso-$ 58.4 0.200 0.344 5.47
MSCI Phils 25.31 0.10 0.40 (2.62)
PLDT US 26.6 0.68 2.62 13.53
DJIA 40,001 247.2 0.62 6.13
SP500 5,615 30.81 0.55 17.73
Nasdaq 18,398 115.04 0.63 22.56
Germany 18,748 213.62 1.15 11.92
Nikkei 41,191 (1033) (2.45) 23.09
Hong Kong 18,233 400.67 2.25 6.95
China 2,971 0.90 0.03 (0.12)
US 10-Yr Yield 4.19% (0.03) (0.73%) 7.91%
PH 10-Yr Yield 6.246% (0.025) (0.40%) 3.70%
Dollar Index 103.783 (0.35) (0.33) 2.72
Gold 2,420.70 (1.20) (0.05) 16.84
Oil 82.21 (0.41) (0.50) 14.74
CRB Index 290.44 0.03 0.01 10.09

PSEi climbs again and moves on with its attempt

to seek out next resistance seen at 6,720-6,780 PHILIPPINE MOST ACTIVES
• The PSE Index (6,648) picked up 38-pts (+0.59%) Stock Value Last Change %
led up by ICT, SM, SMPH, MBT, and TEL BDO 400-M 143.70 -0.10 -0.07%
ICT 362-M 368 8.00 2.22%
• The index has broken its 6,550 resistance and may
AEV 247-M 36.20 -0.75 -2.03%
be able to stretch its rally towards 6,720 or 6,780-
ALI 233-M 29.60 0.10 0.34%
6,800
TEL 230-M 1565 33.00 2.15%
SM 209-M 880 10.00 1.15%
• A continued easing into Philippine and US bond
yields and a correction into the Dollar did help SMPH 206-M 29.30 0.30 1.03%
sentiment and provide some rate reduction trades RLC 201-M 14.26 0.02 0.14%
(such as those in property, banking and some BPI 179-M 122.70 0.80 0.66%
REITs) MBT 166-M 67.90 1.45 2.18%

• The US rallied Friday and maintains its advancing

Note: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity
trend – but is at overbought territory… this may Research Dept as of the date of the report and are subject to change
still cause some corrective volatility without notice. The report is for informational purposes only and is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.
 July 15, 2024

Market Spotlight:
PSEi proceeds to rally after breaking 1st
resistance; may eye 6,720 or close to 6,800
• The PSEi recouped 38-pts after breaking its 6,550-
resistance allowing it to proceed with its recovery
• Next resistance is seen between 6,720 (61.8% Fibo rally) and
6,780-6,800 (April to May highs)
• So far, its MACD still seems conditioned to continue with
its rally despite mixed movements being shown and this
should allow for selective trades proceeding
• It is helpful to see a continued descent into US and
Philippine Bond Yields, and its weakening impact on the
Dollar (which aids the recovery of the Peso, despite is sliding
Friday)
• This means we can continue to take selective trade
choices amongst those more technically viable – but to
lighten into resistance if it proves too heavy, aiming at
buying back into pullbacks that make higher lows or
establish solid pattern bases
• Strong counters would be uptrends like ICT, AREIT, CNVRG,
and TEL; key resistance breaks like MER, URC, BDO, PGOLD,
PLUS (and perhaps soon MBT, GTCAP, SCC, ALI, SMPH).
Also watch basing attempts by a few issues like AC, AGI,
DNL, and JGS
• The US market rallied Friday but is still dealing with
Overbought conditions and may continue to show some
shakiness – but so far, no support breach has been seen and
should remain up trending until a support breach is shown
 July 15, 2024

US Market Review
$SPX 5,615
S&P500 Index +0.55%

Stock Trend Sideways

Uptrend
Uptrend Line/
Chart Formation
Channel

Support 1 & 2 5,413 5,310

Resistance 1 & 2 5,630 5,670

Trading Action

The SP500 rallied after Thursday’s setback

and keeps the index still into an advance
but overbought. As such, expect some
ongoing volatility given its stretch and
proximity to range channel high estimates.
We adjusted resistance to sit closer to
5,630-5,670

EPHE $25.31
MSCI Philippines Index +0.40%

Stock Trend Sideways

Chart Formation Rally Trendline

Support 1 & 2 24.68 23.88

Resistance 1 & 2 25.50 25.80

Trading Action

EPHE proceeds to rally and as we expected,

still see an interim rally to its range highs.
This allows for a rally extension looking
next at 25.50 (its May top) or a 61.8% Fibo
rally at 25.80. Anything more than this
would re-engage an advancing trend

PHI $26.60
PLDT US +2.62%

Stock Trend Sideways

Uptrend
Sideways
Channel Break /
Chart Formation
Triangle Break

Support 1 & 2 24.90 24.00

Resistance 1 & 2 27.20 29.20

Trading Action

PHI broke out of its 2nd pattern being over

26.00 (buy or add). This may allow it to
seek out next resistance targets which we
see between 27.20 to 29.20. This re-
establishes its advance and upgraded its
range trade to a buy or a hold until
resistance is met