July 16, 2024

Juan G. Barredo
Chief Technical Analyst
juanis.barredo@colfinancial.com
GLOBAL SCOREBOARD
Issue Current Change % YTD %
Philippines 6,689 41.14 0.62 3.71
Markets in Review Peso-$ 58.46 0.060 0.103 5.58
MSCI Phils 25.35 0.04 0.16 (2.46)
PLDT US 26.41 (0.19) (0.71) 12.72
DJIA 40,212 210.8 0.53 6.69
SP500 5,631 15.87 0.28 18.06
Nasdaq 18,473 74.12 0.40 23.06
Germany 18,591 (157.29) (0.84) 10.98
Nikkei 41,191 0.00 0.00 23.09
Hong Kong 18,016 (217.06) (1.19) 5.68
China 2,974 2.72 0.09 (0.03)
US 10-Yr Yield 4.24% 0.05 1.19% 9.20%
PH 10-Yr Yield 6.253% 0.007 0.11% 3.82%
Dollar Index 104.254 0.47 0.45 3.19
Gold 2,428.90 8.20 0.34 17.24
Oil 81.91 (0.30) (0.36) 14.32
CRB Index 293.06 (0.96) (0.33) 11.08
* Issue names in purple indicate a non-trading day

PSEi rallies again and hits next resistance; will it

continue or drive a corrective pause? PHILIPPINE MOST ACTIVES
• The PSE Index (6,689) swung up 41-pts (+0.62%) Stock Value Last Change %
led up by SM, ALI, AC, SMPH and AEV ALI 871-M 30.70 1.10 3.72%
SM 436-M 900 20.00 2.27%
• The index has now reached its next resistance
BDO 329-M 143.70 0.00 0.00%
range at 6,720 - 6,780 and will be challenged to
AC 299-M 595 11.00 1.88%
see if it can groom higher to reach its large pattern
JFC 289-M 230 2.60 1.14%
high of close to 7,000. If not, then a step back to
ICT 282-M 363.20 -4.80 -1.30%
support 6,550-6,500 will obviously be on the table
SMPH 251-M 29.60 0.30 1.02%
• Resistance may drive some corrective volatility – URC 231-M 117.10 1.50 1.30%
but may do so selectively leaving some room for BPI 190-M 122 -0.70 -0.57%
trading those that are not too stretched out TEL 163-M 1549 -16.00 -1.02%

• The US rallied Monday and maintains its advancing

trend – but it continues to be in overbought
territory. This may keep us watchful of possible
corrective sways as well
Note: All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity
Research Dept as of the date of the report and are subject to change
without notice. The report is for informational purposes only and is not
intended as an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale of a security.
 July 16, 2024

Market Spotlight:
PSEi continues its rally after breaking over
6,550; eyes 6,720-6,780 or close to 7,000
• The PSEi proceeded to rally picking up 41-pts after recently
breaking its 6,550-resistance
• Next resistance is seen between 6,720 (61.8% Fibo rally) and
6,780-6,800 (April to May highs) but a high stretch may be
its large Triangle’s pattern high of close to 7,000
• So far, its MACD still seems conditioned to continue with
its rally despite mixed movements being shown
• This means we can continue to take selective trade
choices amongst those more technically viable – but to
lighten into resistance if it proves too heavy or if we see a
price stretch (to OB levels)
• Then we would aim at buying back into pullbacks that
make higher lows or establish solid pattern setups
• Yesterday we saw resistance breaks from the likes of the top
three index member gainers. SM broke over its Downtrend
Line, ALI broke above its 3-month Rectangle, while AC broke
over 588 resistance after setting its foot squarely off a triple
support test (establishing a solid base)
• These are good technical signs that may yet allow the in-
range rally to continue up to next resistance zones
• In the US, all three major indices worked upwards, but we
did see a support bounce in Yields and the Dollar, this in
turn weighed on the Peso slightly – but these little rally
corrections seem to be impermanent
 July 16, 2024

US Market Review
$SPX 5,631
S&P500 Index +0.28%

Stock Trend Sideways

Uptrend
Uptrend Line/
Chart Formation
Channel

Support 1 & 2 5,413 5,310

Resistance 1 & 2 5,630 5,670

Trading Action

The SP500 rallied again and maintains its

advance, but it is overbought. As such,
expect some ongoing volatility given its
stretch and proximity to range channel
high estimates. We adjusted resistance to
sit closer to 5,630-5,670

EPHE $25.35
MSCI Philippines Index +0.16%

Stock Trend Sideways

Chart Formation Rally Trendline

Support 1 & 2 24.68 23.88

Resistance 1 & 2 25.50 25.80

Trading Action

EPHE proceeds to rally and as we expected,

still see an interim rally to its range highs.
This allows for a rally extension looking
next at 25.50 (its May top) or a 61.8% Fibo
rally at 25.80. Anything more than this
would re-engage an advancing trend

PHI $26.41
PLDT US -0.71%

Stock Trend Sideways

Uptrend
Sideways
Channel Break /
Chart Formation
Triangle Break

Support 1 & 2 24.90 24.00

Resistance 1 & 2 27.20 29.20

Trading Action

PHI took on some profit taking and a

pause after breaking its 2nd pattern being
over 26.00. This may allow it to seek out
next resistance targets which we see
between 27.20 to 29.20. This re-establishes
its advance and upgraded its range trade
to a buy or a hold until resistance is met