Shipping Monthly Review

MONTHLY
SHIPPING REVIEW
15th APRIL 2016
MONTHLY SHIPPING REVIEW
DRY BULK: FIRMER TANKERS: MIXED SHIP VALUES: WET: MIXED - DRY: MIXED
DRY BULK Baltic Exchange Dry Index

• Vessel earnings reach ytd highs, reflecting 4,500
more positive demand-side developments
4,000
and restrictions on fleet supply growth Source: Baltic Exchange
3,500
• Steel price jumps in China encouraged
greater crude steel output in March, which 3,000
reached the highest monthly level for almost 2,500
two years. 2,000
• Panamax and Supramax demand continues 1,500
to be driven by strong South American grain 1,000
exports, with a record 2q in prospect. 500
• Grain trade gains have offset the impact of 0
lower Atlantic coal movements on Panamax
Jan-10
Jun-10
Apr-11
Jul-12
May-13
Oct-13
Jan-15
Jun-15
Apr-16
Nov-10
Sep-11
Dec-12
Aug-14
Nov-15
Sep-16
Feb-12
Mar-14
demand for the time being at least.
Crude Tanker Spot Earnings

TANKER Weekly TCE Rates, US$’000/day
• After a firm March, VLCC earnings fell 120
quickly in early April but have now started to 260 MEG-Japan
pick up on solid West African enquiry and 100
130 W.Africa-USAC
the requirements for modern ships.
80 80 N.Sea-UKC
• Caribbean dirty trades are being hampered
by pipeline and production outages in Latin 60
America and delays at Venezuela.
• UKC-USAC MR rates are rising amid strong 40
West African demand and a thinner position 20
list as ballasters from WAFR are opting to
head to the busy cross-Med market instead. 0
• LR rates have softened in April as Asian
-20
naphtha buying falters and westbound
Jan-10
May-10
Jan-11
May-11
Jan-12
May-12
Jan-13
May-13
Jan-14
May-14
Jan-15
May-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-10
Sep-11
Sep-12
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
arbitrage opportunities from Asia and the
Middle East remain limited.
FLEET DEVELOPMENTS FLEET DEVELOPMENTS

• In 1q16, 215 new vessels of 18.1mdwt were 1.1.13 1.1.14 1.1.15 1.4.16
delivered to the global bulker fleet (excluding Existing No. MDwt No. MDwt No. MDwt No. MDwt
ships below 10,000dwt). These equated to Tanker 5,715 494.4 5,752 501.8 5,825 518.4 6,070 530.0
2.4% of end-2015 tonnage supply. Bulk 9,323 674.2 9,567 709.8 10,046 747.6 10,322 771.7
• 1q16 removals from the bulker fleet totalled Combi 24 3.3 21 3.1 26 3.5 21 1.9
156 units of 12.3mdwt, or up by 3.2mdwt Fleet >= 20 years
(+34.7%) from 1q15 volumes. Tanker 430 19.7 402 19.9 372 17.7 458 27.6
• New deliveries to the tanker fleet (including Bulk 1,568 77.8 1,193 66.7 1,092 66.1 1,074 63.7
chemical carriers but excluding ships under Combi 5 0.2 4 0.1 3 0.1 6 0.4
10,000dwt) totalled 65 units of 7.2mdwt, thus Orderbook
equating to 1.5% of the end-2015 fleet. Tanker 514 55.0 674 58.7 784 69.6 924 83.9
• 5 ships of 0.3mdwt were removed from the Bulk 1,537 122.6 1,656 133.3 1,846 156.5 1,225 106.8
tanker fleet in 1q16, against 19 units of 1.7 Combi 0 0.0 0 0.0 3 0.2 4 0.3
mdwt in 1q15 - a year-on-year fall of 81.6%.
Published by SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd, Lloyd Chambers, 1 Portsoken Street, London, E1 8PH
T: 020 7977 7400 | F: 020 7265 1549 | E: research@ssy.co.uk | www.ssyonline.com
Registered : in England number 1971247

While care has been taken to ensure that the information in this publication is accurate SSY Consultancy & Research Limited can accept no responsibility
for any errors or any consequences arising therefrom. Reproducing any material from this report without proper attribution to SSY s strictly forbidden. April 2016 | 2
SSY FLEET DATABASE
Bulk Carrier Fleet, as at end March 2016

10-39,999 40-64,999 65-99,999 100-219,999 220,000+ Total
Existing No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT
Pre-1992 279 6.9 106 4.9 43 3.2 7 1.0 9 2.5 444 18.5
1992/96 208 5.3 198 9.1 119 8.6 57 9.0 48 13.3 630 45.2
1997/01 311 8.1 317 15.2 334 24.9 103 17.3 4 1.1 1,069 66.6
2002/06 294 8.3 427 22.5 356 27.7 191 34.2 4 0.9 1,272 93.7
2007/11 999 29.4 1,105 61.9 673 55.9 616 107.1 60 17.2 3,453 271.6
2012/16 874 29.5 1,126 64.7 913 74.5 459 82.0 82 25.5 3,454 276.2
Total 2,965 87.5 3,279 178.2 2,438 194.8 1,433 250.6 207 60.6 10,322 771.7
New buildings
2016 139 5.0 293 17.8 161 13.0 117 22.2 13 3.5 723 61.5
2017 97 3.6 123 7.4 104 8.5 27 5.4 14 3.8 365 28.6
2018+ 38 1.4 38 2.3 29 2.4 8 1.6 24 9.0 137 16.7
Total 274 9.9 454 27.5 294 23.9 152 29.3 51 16.3 1,225 106.8
Combined Carrier Fleet, as at end March 2016

10-79,999 80-109,999 110-139,999 140-199,999 200,000+ Total
Existing No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT
Pre-1992 3 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 3 0.1
1992/96 0 0.0 3 0.3 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 3 0.3
1997/01 3 0.2 7 0.8 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 10 1.0
2002/06 2 0.1 0 0.0 2 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 0.4
2007/11 1 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.1
2012/16 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Total 9 0.6 10 1.1 2 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 21 1.9
New buildings
2016 0 0.0 3 0.2 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 3 0.2
2017 0 0.0 1 0.1 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 1 0.1
2018+ 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Total 0 0.0 4 0.3 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 4 0.3
Tanker Fleet, including Chemical Tankers, as at end March 2016

10-26,999 27-41,999 42-59,999 60-84,999 85-119,999 120-199,999 200,000+ Total
Existing No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT No. MDWT
Pre-1992 73 1.2 58 2.0 24 1.1 5 0.4 5 0.5 6 0.8 0 0.0 171 6.0
1992/96 75 1.1 57 2.1 57 2.6 7 0.5 41 4.0 23 3.3 27 8.0 287 21.6
1997/01 163 2.6 109 3.8 120 5.5 29 2.1 127 13.4 85 12.8 105 31.5 738 71.6
2002/06 269 4.4 260 9.6 306 14.5 161 11.6 278 30.0 125 19.8 151 46.4 1,550 136.2
2007/11 667 10.5 206 7.7 538 26.2 180 13.3 348 38.3 166 26.3 245 75.8 2,350 198.1
2012/16 141 2.5 92 3.4 351 17.4 37 2.8 122 13.5 98 15.1 133 41.8 974 96.5
Total 1,388 22.3 782 28.6 1,396 67.4 419 30.5 921 99.7 503 78.2 661 203.4 6,070 530.0
New buildings
2016 72 1.3 32 1.2 88 4.4 30 2.2 56 6.3 42 6.6 52 16.1 372 38.1
2017 54 1.1 28 1.0 62 3.1 30 2.2 61 6.9 62 9.7 41 12.6 338 36.6
2018+ 53 1.1 24 0.9 48 2.4 13 1.0 37 4.2 16 2.5 23 7.2 214 19.2
Total 179 3.6 84 3.1 198 9.9 73 5.3 154 17.4 120 18.8 116 35.9 924 93.9
Container Ships on Order, as at end February 2016

100-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 2,000-2,999 3,000-3,999 4,000+ Total
New buildings No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU No. TEU
2016 11 2,648 4 2,997 39 61,227 39 91,456 4 15,268 76 914,176 173 1,087,772
2017 1 278 0 0 44 63,328 33 86,322 11 40,736 88 1,223,980 177 1,414,644
2018+ 0 0 0 0 17 28,996 25 66,808 6 22,736 70 1,071,530 118 1,190,070
Total 12 2,926 4 2,997 100 153,551 97 244,586 21 78,740 234 3,209,686 468 3,692,486
SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 3

DRY BULK MARKET
Representative Rates Last Day of Month Mar-14 Mar-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 16/15%
Baltic Exchange Dry Index (4/1/85=1,000) 1,362 602 317 329 429 -28.7%
Avg 6 T/C Handysize $9,542 $5,813 $3,227 $3,182 $4,033 -30.6%
Avg 6 T/C Supramax $11,402 $6,797 $3,179 $3,542 $4,981 -26.7%
Avg 4 T/C Panamax $7,600 $4,780 $2,299 $2,845 $4,008 -16.2%
Avg 4 T/C Capesize $20,636 $4,415 $2,785 $2,356 $2,518 -43.0%
Iron Ore W.Aus-China (Cape) $10.25 $4.50 $3.05 $2.95 $3.10 -31.1%
Iron ore Brazil-China (Cape) $23.50 $10.25 $5.25 $5.60 $5.85 -42.9%
Coal Richards Bay-Rotterdam (Cape) $10.85 $4.00 $2.75 $2.40 $2.50 -37.5%
Coal Bolivar-Rotterdam (Panamax) $11.25 $8.10 $5.10 $5.30 $5.60 -30.9%
Coal NSW-Qingdao (Panamax) $14.60 $8.40 $4.65 $5.55 $6.35 -24.4%
12 month T/C Handysize - 30,000 $10,125 $6,375 $4,438 $4,250 $4,500 -29.4%
12 month T/C Supramax - 52,000 $13,000 $8,188 $5,125 $4,813 $5,438 -33.6%
12 month T/C Panamax - 74,000 $14,250 $7,750 $4,625 $4,875 $5,625 -27.4%
12 month T/C Capesize - 180,000 $27,500 $10,000 $5,300 $5,500 $5,250 -47.5%
SSY Atlantic Capesize Index (2/10/89=5,000) 9,306 3,869 2,505 2,531 2,593 -33.0%
SSY Pacific Capesize Index (6/1/97=4,114) 6,748 2,538 1,617 1,633 1,786 -29.6%
380 CST Rotterdam $579.50 $285.00 $153.00 $148.00 $157.00 -44.9%
STEEL PRICES JUMP Baltic Exchange Dry Index
T he sudden improvement in the Capesize

market has lifted average earnings for 180k
dwt vessels from the all-time low of $1,985/day
12,000
11,000
10,000
on 17 March to $7,076/day. This reflected a 9,000

8,000
combination of more positive demand-side
7,000
developments and restrictions on fleet supply
6,000
growth.
5,000
Brazil’s official iron ore export data indicate a 4,000
substantial gain in this year’s shipments despite 3,000
the absence of Samarco from the market. The 2,000
1q16 total of 85.3 Mt is up 6.0 Mt on the 1q15. 1,000
Australian iron ore exports also demonstrated 0
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
growth in the first two months of the year, rising
2.1 Mt to 120.6 Mt, while record throughput last
month from Port Hedland, the country’s largest
terminal, suggests scope for further annual
growth in Australian ore exports in March.
Chinese iron ore imports in the 1q16 rose 14.6 SSY Capesize Indices
Mt annually to 241.6 Mt. This was partly due to
restocking at the ports, but also displacement of 45,000
domestic iron ore supply and, more latterly, Atlantic
40,000
increased demand from China’s steel mills. Pacific
35,000
Significantly, there have been sharp rises in 30,000
steel prices, with the price of Chinese rebar, for 25,000
example, jumping from $280/t in mid-March to 20,000
$351/t by 14 April, a level last seen in January
15,000
2015. This has encouraged greater production
with China’s crude steel output in March at its 10,000
highest monthly level for almost two years. 5,000
0
Panamax average earnings have also risen to a
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
year-to-date high, albeit in a less dramatic

fashion than Capes, to $5,796/day, driven by
gains in the Atlantic, where round voyage rates

DRY BULK MARKET
climbed to a seven-month high of $7,450/day, Average of the Timecharter Routes $/day

as opposed to $4,173/day at the beginning of
March. 60,000
Supramax (52,000 dwt)
Panamax and Supramax demand continues to 50,000 Panamax (74,000 dwt)
be driven by strong South American grain
Capesize (172/180,000 dwt)
exports, with a record 2q in prospect. March 40,000
data from Brazil show that combined exports of
soya and corn combined surged to a record 30,000
11.9 Mt in March, up 56% year-on-year, as
soya shipments rose to an eight-month high just 20,000
short of 10 Mt.
10,000
For the time being at least, these gains have
offset the impact of lower Atlantic coal 0
movements on Panamax demand. US coal
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
exports (excluding Canadian cargoes) declined
by a third to 3.9 Mt in February, as steam coal
exports slumped to a six-year low. On the
importer side, the sharpest slowdown in Europe
has been in the UK, where coal imports fell 2.2
Mt year-on-year to 1.0 Mt in February, the Capesize Voyage Rates $/t
second lowest month in the last 16 years. 40
Coal RB/Rotterdam
One positive development for tonne-mile 35 Iron Ore W. Aus/China
demand has been Colombian steam coal 30
Iron Ore Brazil/China
exports to India, which reached a combined 0.8
Mt in February/March, the first such shipments 25
since 2013. That said, March exports to all 20

destinations slipped to a two-year low of 5.6 Mt. 15
Average spot earnings for both Supramax and 10
Handysize have also established respective
5
year-to-date highs of $5,494/day and $4,639/
day. 0
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
The bauxite mining ban in Malaysia, initially
running for three months from January, has
been extended for another three months. China
imported 24 Mt of bauxite in 2015, so the
reduction in shipping (purely from stocks) from
Malaysia has been detrimental to Supramax
demand in the Pacific. Chinese customs data 12 Month Time-Charter Rates $/day
for the first two months of the year revealed a 40,000
shift in bauxite sourcing, with 1.4 Mt imported 25/32,000
35,000
from suppliers in the Atlantic in the first two 50/55,000
70/75,000
months of 2016, compared with a mere 0.1 Mt 30,000
170/180,000
in the same period last year. 25,000
Fleet supply growth across the whole of the dry 20,000
bulk carrier fleet slowed to just +0.1 Mdwt in
15,000
March from +4.8 Mdwt in January, as
demolition activity remained robust, particularly 10,000
in the Capesize and Panamax sectors. Cape 5,000
deletions totalled 2.7 Mdwt in March, excluding
0
19 sales for demolition of 3.1 Mdwt, which have
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
yet to exit the fleet. This ensured a net decline

of almost 1 Mdwt in Cape supply last month
(before any allowance for ships entering lay-
up).

COAL
JAPAN’S LONG-TERM STEAM COAL Japan’s Steam Coal/Anthracite Imports Mt

PROSPECTS 125
120
J apan’s combined steam coal and anthracite
imports surged to a record 120.1 Mt last year,
marking a sizeable gain on the 114.2 Mt shipped into 115
the country during the previous year and,

110
significantly, comparing favourably with the 107.9 Mt
imported during 2010, prior to the post-Fukushima
105
nuclear shutdown starting in 2011 (see chart, right).
Of last year’s imports, almost 75% were shipped
100
from Australia, with Russia supplying more steam
coal/anthracite (13.5 Mt) than Indonesia (12.6 Mt) for 95
the first time since 1993. However, at 19.9 Mt,
imports of steam coal/anthracite in the first two 90
months of 2016 were 4% lower than in the same 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
period last year.
The past year has seen a number of statements on Companies of Japan show the sporadic and limited
the long-term role of coal in the energy sector. return of nuclear power since 2011, (see chart below).
In July last year, the ministry of economy, trade and As we commented in the December MSR, although
industry approved Japan’s Intended Nationally coal was not explicitly mentioned in the text of last
Determined Contribution (INDC) in advance of year’s COP21 agreement, success in reaching the
December’s Paris Agreement on Climate Change temperature-focused targets in the agreement would
(COP21). By 2030 coal was targeted to form 26% of require lower coal consumption, without the
the national energy mix from around 30% at present. widespread adoption of new technologies.
This would be a similar share to the gas 2030 target In February this year, Japan’s environment ministry
of 27%, with renewables, such as solar and permitted the construction of new coal-fired power
hydropower, comprising as much as 24%. The INDC plants on the proviso that utilities disclose CO2
aimed for a 36% cut in CO2 emissions from 2013 emissions from this month (April) onwards, when full
levels by 2030. liberalisation of Japan’s energy sector takes place.
Perhaps most contentiously, however, was the More importantly, each utility supplying in excess of
planned contribution of nuclear power of 22% by 500 GWh will be committed to raising the share of non-
2030, which would approach the 2010 share of fossil fuels in their energy output to a minimum of 44%
around a quarter, if the energy mix were to evolve as by 2030. Additional thermal efficiency improvements
planned. This would also mark a dramatic return of will be also be required at each plant.
the sector from current minimal generating levels. Between now and the end of 2019, Reuters estimates
Data from the Federation of Electric Power some 15 coal-fired units are planned to enter operation
with an aggregate capacity of 1,622 MW, but, crucially,
a further 16 units are planned to enter service during
Nuclear Power Generation in Japan bln kWh 2020-23, which would have a far higher combined
capacity of 11,200 MW. Given the targets detailed
30
Source: Federation of Electric Power Companies above, it can be assumed that a number of these new
facilities will simply replace outdated coal-fired power
25
plants.
20 The legacy of Fukushima does pose a threat to the
realisation of nuclear securing 22% of Japan’s energy
15 mix 14 years from now. According to Japanese media,
generation at zero an emergency shutdown in February of the No.4 unit at
10 the Takahama plant 380 km from Tokyo took place just
three days after its restart. This incident prompted the
5 nuclear regulator to refer to the “large impact on
society” with trust in nuclear energy diminished and
0 underlines the delicate balance to be struck between
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
following public opinion and promoting non-fossil fuel

COAL
Seaborne Coal Trade

Coal Exports Mt 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annlsd
USA: Coking 53.6 43.2 26.3 22.0 47.8 59.0 56.2 53.2 37.9
(ex. Canada) Thermal 28.3 28.2 9.6 5.4 15.6 48.1 43.5 28.9 23.7
Total 81.9 71.4 35.9 27.4 63.4 107.1 99.7 82.1 61.6 [Dec]
Canada: Coking 25.9 26.6 26.3 25.1 25.7 29.8 34.4 30.4 26.9
(ex. USA) Thermal 3.9 5.4 3.5 1.1 5.5 3.9 3.2 3.1 2.2
Total 29.8 32.0 29.8 26.2 31.2 33.7 37.6 33.5 29.1 [Dec]
Australia: Coking 57.1 74.6 99.6 122.0 158.9 144.9 169.6 186.0 185.7
Thermal 49.5 62.1 87.1 111.7 142.1 171.2 188.3 200.7 201.6
Total 106.6 136.7 186.8 233.7 301.0 316.1 357.9 386.7 387.3 [Dec]
South Africa: Coking 3.6 6.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 2.0 1.7
Thermal 46.0 55.6 68.1 70.0 68.2 76.6 73.4 76.0 76.1
Total 49.6 61.7 70.2 71.0 68.8 77.4 74.0 78.0 77.8 [Dec]
Poland: Coking 8.9 4.9 3.0 1.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Thermal 6.5 13.1 15.3 13.6 7.1 3.9 7.2 4.7 4.6
Total 15.4 18.0 18.3 15.0 7.2 4.1 7.5 4.7 4.6 [SSY]
Colom bia Thermal 13.7 18.7 34.0 54.6 69.2 79.7 73.7 74.9 80.5 [Dec]
Indonesia Thermal 4.4 31.3 57.1 128.7 290.6 347.1 381.2 356.1 326.5 [SSY]
PR China Coking 4.0 4.6 6.5 5.3 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0
Thermal 13.7 24.1 48.6 66.4 17.8 7.8 6.2 4.9 4.0
Total 17.7 28.6 55.1 71.7 18.9 9.1 7.3 5.8 5.0 [Dec]
Other Exporters Coking 11.1 10.4 16.0 24.9 32.8 36.9 45.7 42.8 40.9
Thermal 12.9 12.2 20.5 61.1 75.2 105.3 111.8 113.4 108.9
Total 23.9 22.6 36.5 86.0 108.0 142.2 157.5 156.2 149.8
Total Seaborne Coking 164.1 170.5 179.8 201.7 267.0 272.9 307.9 315.3 294.1
Thermal 178.8 250.6 343.8 512.6 691.3 843.6 888.5 862.7 828.1
Total 342.9 421.1 523.6 714.3 958.3 1116.5 1196.4 1178.0 1122.2 [SSY]
Coal Im ports Mt 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annlsd
Japan Coking 74.1 73.4 75.2 78.7 76.6 70.5 77.0 74.1 70.6 Jan to:
Thermal 31.4 49.6 66.4 96.1 101.7 107.7 109.0 109.0 114.4
Anthracite 2.0 2.8 3.7 5.9 6.2 6.0 5.5 5.2 5.7
Total 107.5 125.8 145.3 180.7 184.5 184.2 191.5 188.3 190.7 [Dec]
Europe Coking 56.6 49.8 51.4 52.2 55.1 53.9 53.5 60.0 54.2
Thermal 83.3 99.6 121.4 162.0 120.4 163.7 157.2 146.7 138.5
Total 139.9 149.4 172.8 214.2 175.5 217.6 210.7 206.7 192.7 [SSY]
South Korea Coking 11.3 17.2 19.6 16.2 23.4 25.7 26.4 29.9 32.5
Thermal 11.6 26.0 42.3 56.1 87.8 91.1 91.8 92.7 93.7
Anthracite 1.1 0.7 2.0 4.5 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.1 8.9
Total 23.9 43.8 63.9 76.8 118.6 124.6 126.5 130.7 135.1 [Dec]
Taiw an Coking 4.6 5.3 7.3 9.8 10.2 10.5 10.9 10.9 10.8
Thermal 14.8 23.9 38.1 51.3 53.2 55.2 57.1 57.0 56.3
Total 19.4 29.2 45.3 61.1 63.4 65.7 68.0 67.9 67.1 [Dec]
China Coking 0.9 0.4 0.5 7.2 47.3 53.6 75.4 62.3 48.0
Thermal 1.1 1.3 1.6 18.9 119.0 181.5 192.0 165.5 107.9
Total 2.0 1.7 2.1 26.1 166.3 235.1 267.4 227.8 155.9 [Dec]
India* Coking 5.4 9.9 11.2 19.7 35.3 35.5 39.0 47.9 50.2
Thermal 0.1 2.1 12.5 24.5 74.5 123.4 144.1 176.0 171.0
Total 5.5 12.0 23.7 44.2 109.8 158.9 183.1 223.9 221.2 [SSY]
USA Thermal 2.4 6.5 11.2 27.6 17.7 8.3 8.1 10.3 10.3 [Dec]
Other Im porters Coking 11.3 14.5 14.6 17.9 19.1 23.2 25.7 30.2 27.8
Thermal 31.0 38.1 44.6 65.7 103.4 98.9 115.4 92.2 121.4
Total 42.3 52.7 59.2 83.6 122.5 122.1 141.1 122.4 149.2
Total Seaborne Coking 164.1 170.5 179.8 201.7 267.0 272.9 307.9 315.3 294.1
Thermal 178.8 250.6 343.8 512.6 691.3 843.6 888.5 862.7 828.1
Total 342.9 421.1 523.6 714.3 958.3 1116.5 1196.4 1178.0 1122.2 [SSY]
* Based on exporter data to India

STEEL/IRON ORE
Major Steel Exporters ‘000 tonnes

STEEL TRADE ROUND-UP 22,000
Japan China S.Korea Brazil EU
20,000
A fter a strong 2015 in which growth in the global

steel trade was driven by surging exports from
China, the start of 2016 saw a slowing in the global
18,000
16,000
14,000
steel trade with combined shipments from China,
Japan, South Korea, the EU and Brazil in the 1q16 12,000
estimated to be the lowest quarterly total since the 10,000
1q15. This retreat can be largely attributed to weak 8,000
global steel demand impacting trade, but also to a 6,000
rise in protectionism. China has been the primary 4,000
target of steel-related trade cases but most other 2,000
major steel producers, including South Korea, Japan, 0
Brazil, and some European countries, have also
Jan-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-13
Apr-14
Apr-15
seen their products subject to tariffs and restrictions.
Chinese steel exports fell on an annual basis for only
the second time in the last three years in January, Brazil has also seen a sharp increase in its steel
dropping 0.6 Mt to 9.7 Mt. However, exports returned exports, up over 40% in 2015. This continued at the
to positive year-on-year growth in both February and start of 2016 with shipments up 0.3 Mt year-on-year to
March, with shipments in the latter a three-month 2.0 Mt in Jan-Feb. Rising steel exports have occurred
high of 10.0 Mt. This can be linked to the first annual alongside a drop in domestic steel output, showing the
rise in Chinese crude steel output since December slump in steel consumption that has occurred as the
2014 in March, up almost 3% to 70.7 Mt. In country’s economy has slowed. Brazil has also seen its
aggregate, China’s 1q16 exports of 27.8 Mt were up currency depreciate substantially against the dollar,
2.0 Mt on the 1q15, although they were still down on providing an additional impetus for exports.
the preceding two quarters. The slowdown in export
The US has been one of the most active countries in
growth at the start of 2016 can be ascribed to both
filing trade cases concerning steel imports. Falling
lower domestic steel output in the first two months of
domestic demand, particularly in the oil and gas sector,
the year and a more competitive environment for
has increased the competition between domestic and
exports amidst stagnant global steel demand.
imported steel and placed more attention on the impact
However, tariff barriers and import restrictions
of low cost imports on the domestic steel industry. The
initiated by a range of countries against Chinese
US has introduced anti-dumping measures against ten
steel imports have also played a role. SteelFirst
countries including, China, South Korea and Brazil,
reported 39 active trade cases pending against
since the start of 2016, this is in addition to other
Chinese steel products at the start of 2016 and a
measures already in place. US steel imports have
further 18 investigations citing Chinese steel
fallen by 2.9 Mt year-on-year in the first two months of
products were initiated in the 1q16.
2016 to 4.4 Mt, and this sharp decline is partially
responsible for the drop in annualised 2016 Chinese
steel exports to the Americas. Chinese exports to Latin
Chinese Steel Exports by Destination Mt America have also fallen over the same period.
40
2013 2014 2015 2016a Japanese steel exports dropped slightly on an annual
35 basis in Jan-Feb to 6.6 Mt. However, shipments in the
30 first two months of the year were only slightly below
average monthly exports in 2015. Japanese steel
25
exports appear not to have been significantly impacted
20 by the surge in Chinese shipments to its key markets in
15
SE and NE Asia, as annual volumes have remained
steady at slightly over 40 Mt for the last three years.
10
Given the rising tide of steel protectionism, together
5 with the World Steel Association’s current forecast for
0 a 0.8% net decline in global steel demand this year, it
Americas
NE Asia
South Asia
SE Asia
Europe
Africa
MEast
will be difficult for world steel trade volumes to improve

on, or even match, last year’s annual record.

STEEL/IRON ORE
Million Tonnes 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 Annlsd
Iron Ore Exports
Australia 88.0 100.0 137.1 165.2 250.8 422.6 611.3 751.9 804.2 [Dec]
Brazil 92.3 114.3 131.4 160.1 223.4 310.9 329.7 344.4 366.2 [Dec]
Canada 32.3 27.0 28.7 26.5 27.9 32.6 38.0 40.3 36.9 [SSY]
India 28.8 31.6 32.3 34.9 80.9 95.9 14.2 10.0 12.0 [SSY]
S.Africa 10.2 17.0 21.8 21.4 26.6 48.0 58.2 62.0 64.2 [Dec]
FSU 43.9 38.6 30.0 27.4 35.6 57.6 58.0 56.0 56.0 [SSY]
Other 80.3 68.6 64.5 55.9 69.9 106.0 181.3 171.3 118.9 [Diff]
Total 375.8 397.1 445.8 491.4 715.1 1,073.6 1,290.7 1,435.9 1,458.4 [SSY]
Iron Ore Im ports 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 Annlsd
EU15 133.9 140.4 143.3 138.7 133.5 112.2 107.0 113.4 110.5 [SSY]
Other W.Europe 1.7 2.0 3.4 4.1 4.6 6.8 8.2 8.8 10.0 [SSY]
E.Europe 58.8 47.7 35.2 30.0 31.9 22.1 21.6 22.7 23.0 [SSY]
Europe (E+W) 194.4 190.1 181.9 172.8 170.0 141.1 136.8 144.9 143.5 [SSY]
Japan 124.5 125.3 120.4 131.7 132.3 134.3 135.2 136.4 131.0 [Dec]
South Korea 13.2 22.6 35.1 39.0 43.5 56.3 63.4 73.5 73.3 [Dec]
Taiw an 4.9 7.8 9.2 14.9 14.6 18.9 20.4 21.3 23.8 [Dec]
China 10.0 14.3 41.2 70.0 275.2 618.6 820.3 932.9 953.3 [Dec]
Other Asia 3.8 5.7 7.7 9.1 6.9 8.6 18.5 29.6 28.5 [SSY]
Other 26.7 33.5 43.7 47.9 63.8 53.4 53.9 54.4 61.8 [SSY]
Total 377.5 399.3 439.2 485.4 706.3 1,031.2 1,248.5 1,393.0 1,415.2 [SSY]
Steel Production 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015 Annlsd
Austria 4.7 4.3 5.0 5.7 7.0 7.2 8.0 7.9 7.7 -2.4%
Belgium 10.7 11.5 11.6 11.6 10.4 8.0 7.1 7.4 7.3 -1.5%
France 18.8 19.0 18.1 21.0 19.5 15.4 15.7 16.1 15.0 -7.2%
Germany 40.5 38.4 42.1 46.4 44.5 43.8 42.6 42.9 42.7 -0.6%
Italy 23.9 25.5 27.8 26.8 29.4 25.8 24.1 23.7 22.0 -7.2%
Netherlands 5.5 5.4 6.4 5.7 6.9 6.7 6.7 7.0 7.0 0.4%
Spain 14.2 12.9 13.8 15.9 17.9 16.3 14.3 14.3 14.8 4.2%
Sw eden 4.8 4.5 5.0 5.2 5.7 4.8 4.4 4.5 4.4 -3.6%
United Kingdom 15.7 17.8 17.6 15.2 13.3 9.8 12.0 12.2 10.8 -11.6%
Other EU 8.8 9.1 8.5 10.0 9.2 8.4 6.6 7.0 7.0 0.0%
EU15 Total 147.6 148.4 155.8 163.4 163.8 146.2 141.4 143.0 138.6 -3.1%
Turkey 4.9 9.4 13.2 14.3 21.0 29.1 34.7 34.0 31.5 -7.4%
Other Europe 6.4 5.1 1.9 3.2 9.7 6.9 8.3 8.9 9.8 10.3%
TOTAL EUROPE 158.9 162.9 170.9 180.9 194.5 182.2 184.4 186.0 180.0 -3.2%
Canada 14.6 12.3 14.4 16.6 15.3 13.0 12.4 12.7 12.5 -2.0%
United States 80.1 89.7 95.2 101.8 93.2 80.5 86.9 88.2 78.8 -10.6%
N. AMERICA 94.7 102.0 109.6 118.4 108.6 93.5 99.2 100.9 91.3 -9.5%
Brazil 20.5 20.6 25.1 27.9 31.6 32.9 34.2 33.9 33.3 -1.9%
Mexico 7.4 8.7 12.1 15.6 16.2 16.7 18.2 19.0 18.2 -4.0%
Other L&S America 7.9 9.2 10.3 12.2 15.1 12.1 13.1 12.4 12.0 -2.9%
L&S AMERICA 35.8 38.5 47.5 55.7 62.9 61.8 65.5 65.3 63.5 -2.7%
Japan 105.3 110.3 101.6 106.4 112.5 109.6 110.6 110.7 105.2 -5.0%
Australia 6.6 6.7 8.5 7.1 7.8 7.3 4.7 4.6 4.9 6.9%
South Africa 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.5 9.5 7.6 7.3 6.6 6.4 -2.3%
India 11.9 15.0 22.0 26.9 40.9 68.3 81.3 87.3 89.6 2.6%
Rep of Korea 13.5 23.1 36.8 43.1 47.8 58.6 66.1 71.5 69.7 -2.6%
Taiw an 5.2 9.7 11.6 16.9 18.6 19.8 22.3 23.1 21.4 -7.6%
Czech+Slovakia 15.0 14.9 11.2 9.9 10.7 9.8 9.7 10.1 9.8 -2.4%
Poland 16.1 13.6 11.9 10.5 8.4 8.0 8.0 8.6 9.2 7.5%
Romania 13.8 9.8 6.6 4.7 6.2 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 0.0%
CIS 154.7 154.4 79.1 98.5 113.3 108.3 108.3 106.1 101.5 -4.3%
China 46.8 66.3 95.4 128.5 353.6 623.8 801.0 819.9 798.4 -2.6%
N.Korea 6.5 7.0 0.6 0.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0%
Other 25.5 27.5 30.4 32.5 51.3 69.9 77.4 64.9 59.4 -8.5%
WORLD 718.9 770.5 752.3 848.9 1,147.8 1,433.4 1,650.4 1,670.2 1,615.0 -3.3%

GRAIN
Chinese Corn Stocks Mt

CHINA ENDS MINIMUM PRICING FOR CORN 120
I n late March, China’s State Administration of Grain 100

announced it would end the price support scheme Source: IGC
for domestic corn producers and move towards 80
market based pricing. The scheme, introduced nine
60
years ago, was intended to encourage corn planting
and promote food security by setting a minimum
40
price at which the government would guarantee to
purchase domestically produced corn and store it in
20
its reserves. A new scheme where subsidies would
be paid directly to farmers has been announced,
0
although the details have yet to be confirmed.
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16f
The minimum prices for corn set by Chinese
authorities have been well above recent global prices
(around 30-50% higher according to the US
Department of Agriculture) and, as a result, the is likely to deteriorate over time. Given the current
government has built up substantial corn stockpiles. condition of oversupply in the domestic market, this
According to the International Grains Council (IGC) can most easily be achieved by substituting for imports
corn stocks have risen from 44.4 Mt in 2006/07 (Jul- and increasing exports.
Jun) to an estimated 98.4 Mt in 2014/15 and are Chinese coarse grain imports are forecast by the IGC
forecast to rise further to 108.0 Mt in 2015/16, to drop to 17.3 Mt in 2015/16 (of which 2.5 Mt is
accounting for 52% of stocks globally. Some sources expected to be corn), down from 23.6 Mt in 2014/15
put stocks significantly higher, for example Reuters (4.9 Mt of corn). A significant release in corn stocks
are quoting “close to 250 Mt of corn”. In addition, could push this down further and, should imports revert
high domestic corn prices have created the to levels seen before the minimum pricing scheme was
somewhat bizarre situation that, despite oversupplied introduced, then volumes would be cut to under 2.0
domestic markets, China has raised its imports of Mtpa of coarse grain, with corn imports close to nil.
corn and similar substitutes such as sorghum and However, if domestic output drops as a result of lower
barley. The end of minimum pricing is likely to see prices, China’s corn imports could recover over the
domestic prices fall towards the levels seen on global longer term.
markets, with negative implications for trade and ship
demand. China’s corn exports have been negligible since the
minimum pricing scheme was introduced, however in
Price liberalisation will provide strong short-term the three years preceding the implementation of the
incentives for China to reduce its corn stockpiles. scheme the country exported over 16 Mt of corn. Any
Stocks will be devalued as the price of corn reverts significant resumption in Chinese exports is likely to be
towards market levels and the quality of the inventory focussed on destinations in SE Asia, potentially
displacing longer haul cargoes from producers in
Chinese Coarse Grain Imports Mt Europe and the Americas.
25 According to a recent agriculture ministry statement,
reported by Reuters, China is seeking to cut corn
20 oversupply by reducing the area made over to planting
the crop by a third (around 8.2 million acres) by 2020.
Source: IGC
The government plans to allocate 3.5 billion yuan to
15 the task of encouraging farmers to switch to alternative
crops. However, It may be difficult to cut corn
10 production this harvest year, as farmers will have
already made preparations for the planting season that
5
begins in April. Nevertheless, should a substantial
amount of land be switched to soyabeans then, subject
to issues of price and quality, there could be negative
0 implications for the country’s soyabean imports, which
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16f
totalled 81.7 Mt in 2015 and are dominated by long

haul supplies from Latin America and the US.

GRAIN
World Grain Trade

08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Diff
Exporters:
Brazil: Wheat 0.4 1.2 2.6 1.7 1.7 0.0 1.7 1.4 -0.3
Coarse Grain 6.8 6.4 11.4 8.5 26.5 23.6 20.6 34.6 +14.0
Soya 42.9 41.4 44.0 51.0 55.1 60.7 64.9 71.8 +6.9
Total 50.1 49.0 58.0 61.2 83.3 84.3 87.2 107.8 +20.6
USA: Wheat 27.3 24.2 35.7 27.9 27.5 31.3 22.6 20.5 -2.1
Coarse Grain 50.4 55.2 52.0 44.7 22.3 47.3 56.6 50.4 -6.2
Soya 42.8 51.8 48.6 47.2 45.2 55.4 62.6 56.2 -6.4
Total 120.5 131.2 136.3 119.8 95.0 134.0 141.8 127.1 -14.7
Canada: Wheat 18.3 18.3 16.3 18.2 18.7 22.9 24.9 21.8 -3.1
Coarse Grain 3.9 3.1 4.9 3.5 4.7 5.1 4.2 3.6 -0.6
Total 22.2 21.4 21.2 21.7 23.4 28.0 29.1 25.4 -3.7
Australia: Wheat 13.5 13.7 18.5 23.1 21.3 18.4 16.6 17.0 +0.4
Coarse Grain 4.9 4.3 4.7 7.1 5.9 7.2 6.9 5.8 -1.1
Total 18.4 18.0 23.2 30.2 27.2 25.6 23.5 22.8 -0.7
Argentina: Wheat 8.5 5.1 7.6 11.3 7.1 1.5 4.1 6.6 +2.5
Coarse Grain 13.8 14.9 18.5 20.9 28.1 15.9 22.7 21.7 -1.0
Soya 27.9 36.5 35.0 31.4 29.5 30.8 36.9 41.3 +4.4
Total 50.2 56.5 61.1 63.6 64.7 48.2 63.7 69.6 +5.9
EU: Wheat 24.5 20.8 22.1 15.6 21.7 31.0 34.4 31.0 -3.4
Coarse Grain 5.5 2.8 6.0 6.3 6.6 9.0 13.7 12.4 -1.3
Total 30.0 23.6 28.1 21.9 28.3 40.0 48.1 43.4 -4.7
Russia: Wheat 18.3 18.8 4.0 21.6 11.2 18.5 22.2 23.4 +1.2
Coarse Grain 4.8 3.2 0.3 5.6 4.3 6.9 8.4 7.6 -0.8
Total 23.1 22.0 4.3 27.2 15.5 25.4 30.6 31.0 +0.4
Others: Wheat 26.0 26.0 18.9 25.9 32.7 32.7 26.9 32.2 +5.3
Coarse Grain 22.6 22.4 19.2 29.1 30.5 38.8 35.6 30.8 -4.8
Soya 14.8 16.9 19.5 20.5 24.7 24.1 22.7 22.9 +0.2
Total 63.4 65.3 57.6 75.5 87.9 95.6 85.2 85.9 +0.7
World: Wheat 136.8 128.1 125.7 145.3 141.9 156.3 153.4 153.9 +0.5
Coarse Grain 112.7 112.3 117.0 125.7 128.9 153.8 168.7 166.9 -1.8
Soya 128.4 146.6 147.1 150.1 154.5 171.0 187.1 192.2 +5.1
Total 377.9 387.0 389.8 421.1 425.3 481.1 509.2 513.0 +3.8
Importers 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 Diff
Japan: Wheat 4.9 5.5 6.0 5.8 6.3 5.9 5.6 5.7 +0.1
Coarse Grain 18.9 19.9 18.7 17.2 18.0 17.5 16.3 16.9 +0.6
Total 23.8 25.4 24.7 23.0 24.3 23.4 21.9 22.6 +0.7
PR China: Wheat 0.5 1.4 1.0 3.0 3.3 6.7 2.1 2.5 +0.4
Coarse Grain 1.5 2.6 3.8 7.1 6.1 11.6 23.6 17.3 -6.3
Soya 40.6 54.1 52.8 57.5 61.3 70.8 79.0 82.0 +3.0
Total 42.6 58.1 57.6 67.6 70.7 89.1 104.7 101.8 -2.9
S.Korea: Wheat 3.3 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.2 4.1 4.0 4.6 +0.6
Coarse Grain 6.9 7.8 7.6 7.2 8.3 9.3 10.2 9.6 -0.6
Total 10.2 12.2 12.5 12.3 13.5 13.4 14.2 14.2 +0.0
EU: Wheat 7.9 5.1 4.7 7.2 6.9 6.0 8.0 7.4 -0.6
Coarse Grain 4.6 2.6 8.9 6.8 12.1 17.1 10.4 15.0 +4.6
Soya 34.3 34.0 34.5 32.5 30.8 32.6 33.7 34.0 +0.3
Total 46.8 41.7 48.1 46.5 49.8 55.7 52.1 56.4 +4.3
Egypt: Wheat 9.8 10.2 10.4 11.6 8.2 10.1 11.1 10.9 -0.2
Coarse Grain 5.2 5.4 5.9 6.8 5.8 7.8 7.8 8.3 +0.5
Total 15.0 15.6 16.3 18.4 14.0 17.9 18.9 19.2 +0.3
Iran: Wheat 8.9 3.0 0.1 2.5 5.4 6.5 5.0 3.7 -1.3
Coarse Grain 5.8 4.6 4.1 4.9 5.6 5.7 8.7 6.8 -1.9
Total 14.7 7.6 4.2 7.4 11.0 12.2 13.7 10.5 -3.2
Others: Wheat 101.5 98.5 98.6 110.1 106.6 117.0 117.6 119.1 +1.5
Coarse Grain 69.8 69.4 68.0 75.7 73.0 84.8 91.7 93.0 +1.3
Soya 53.5 58.5 59.8 60.1 62.4 67.6 74.4 76.2 +1.8

FLEET DEVELOPMENTS
Ship Demolition Sales by Year (Mdwt)

1Q16 SCRAP SALES SURGE 65
Dry cargo / other Oil carriers
60
D
55
espite exceptionally high disposals of surplus 2016 totals annualised on basis of year-to-date sales
50
ships in 2011-2015 inclusive, 1q16 has seen yet
45
further acceleration in scrap sales, with 253 vessels SOURCE: SSY
of 15.55mdwt (basis all ship types) reported sold. 40
This constituted a rise in tonnage terms of 2.4mdwt 35
(+18.6%) from 1q15. Furthermore, if sustained to the 30
end of the year (which is unlikely given the influence 25
of the monsoons on activity in the Indian sub- 20

Continent), such selling would imply a final total for 15
2016 of 62.2mdwt - up by 4.8mdwt (+8.4%) from the 10
all-time record of 57.4mdwt recorded in 2012. As is 5
also clear from the top graph, sales have again been 0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
heavily centred on dry cargo vessels, with 237 such
units of 14.6mdwt sold in 1q16. By contrast, just 16
oil carrier scrap sales of 0.9mdwt (or 5.9% of the This was illustrated by a record quarterly low for the
total in dwt terms) ensued in the same period. Baltic Dry Index (BDI) in 1q16 of just 358 points - a
decline of 41.7% from 1q15. As well as demand side
Greater demolition sales in 1q16 took place despite
weakness, vessel earnings have been pressured by a
further steep falls in scrap prices in January and
3-year high in newbuilding deliveries. Together this has
February, albeit that these have since rallied, as
caused record numbers of Panamaxes (65-99,999dwt)
seen in the lower graph. From US$227/lwt at end-
and Capesizes (100,000+dwt) to be sold for scrap in
February prices of bulkers for scrapping on the sub-
the year to date. At mid-April, 59 such sales have
Continent reached US$287/lwt six weeks later - a
taken place of the former, compared to 109 in the
26.4% rise. (For a Capesize of around 22,000lwt, this
whole of 2015. For Capes, the comparable figures are
meant an increase of some US$1.32m in revenue
49 sales so far in 2016 against 2015’s final total of 93.
received by the seller of such a ship). Heightened
selling also ensued despite very low oil and bunker Not only have greater numbers of large bulkers been
prices that cut the incentive to dispose of older, less sold for scrap in 1q16: analysis of vessel ages shows a
fuel-efficient vessels. Yet international oil prices have heightened incidence of sales for breaking of ships
rebounded by almost 50% since mid-January, from less than 20 years’ age. Whereas 26 such Panamaxes
barely US$30/bbl for Brent crude to around US$44/ were sold for demolition in calendar 2015, so far in
bbl at present. Hence, any negative effect that softer 2016 the comparable total has been 20 units. Similarly,
bunker prices may have had on owners’ willingness for Capesizes, 39 ships less than 20 years old were
to scrap tonnage should similarly abate. sold for scrap last year against 16 already in 2016. In
fact, whereas the average age of Panamaxes sold for
A major factor in surging scrap sales has been
breaking even as recently as in 2014 was 24.3 years,
continued severely depressed dry cargo markets.
in 2016 to date it has fallen to just 21.1 years. In the
Capesize sector, the equivalent averages were 23.4
Ship Demolition Prices: sub-Continent years in 2014 and 21.0 years so far in 2016.
525 Unlike ongoing high sales for breaking of large bulkers
500 (and older container ships) so far this year, tanker
475 scrap sales (including purpose-built chemical carriers)
450 have fallen again. After 105 such ships of 4.2mdwt
425 were sold in 2015 (a third successive annual decline),
400
US$ per lwt
sales of these vessels are on course to total only 64

375
units of 3.7mdwt in 2016 (based on first quarter sales).
350
If correct, this would be the lowest annual total for this
325
300
ship type since 1991. Furthermore, as noted in the
275 Dirty tanker, 15/25,000 lwt “Fleet Developments” section of last month’s issue, the
250 Clean tanker, 6/10,000 lwt current tanker fleet has a very modern age profile: only
225 Bulk carrier, 7/12,000 lwt 16.9% of existing vessels are over 15 years old. This
200 implies limited scope for tanker scrapping in the near
Jan-14
May-14
Jan-15
May-15
Jan-16
Jul-14
Jul-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Nov-15
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
term, even if present firm freight markets ease.

ECONOMY
WORLD GDP GROWTH “TOO SLOW FOR GDP Growth %

TOO LONG” 8
2015 2016 2017
7
L ast month US Federal Reserve Chair Janet
Yellen argued the Fed should “proceed
cautiously,” before raising interest rates again due to
6
Source: IMF
5
global economic uncertainty. Indeed, in this week’s
World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary 4
Fund (IMF) notes the world economy has been 3
growing “too slow for too long”. The Federal Reserve
made its first upward adjustment to US interest rates 2
for seven years as recently as December 2015, lifting 1
the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a
0
range of 0.25-0.5%. Although further rate increases
this year had been expected by some market -1
participants, the US Federal Reserve has evidently World US Eurozone Japan China India
tempered its approach.
Were the very low interest rate environment to Managing Director Christine Lagarde highlighted that
persist for longer than expected, it would naturally the global recovery remains, too slow, too fragile and is
benefit those repaying debt as well as fresh investors at risk of persistent low growth having damaging
in shipping assets. The IMF notes another positive effects on the social and political fabric of many
factor for economic activity in the form of boosting countries. In her words the risks of being trapped in a
the attractiveness of infrastructure investment, which “new mediocre” have increased.
the Fund claims in its April Outlook is needed across The introduction to the Outlook also refers to political
a range of countries. Meanwhile, this year’s fall in the discussion in the US and Europe turning more inward
US Dollar (see chart of the Dollar Index below), has due to income inequality, resentment of global elites
helped commodity prices to rise. and fear of terrorism, which may eventually lead
Noting the “ever-slowing and increasingly fragile towards protectionist policies.
pace” of the global recovery, the IMF has lowered its In advanced economies the recovery has been
forecasts for global GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 hampered by weak demand, partly restrained by
from its previous projections released in January. unresolved crisis legacies, unfavourable demographics
This year’s projection has been lowered by 0.2 and low productivity growth. The US economy is
percentage points to 3.2% and the 2017 forecast has forecast to expand by 2.4% this year and 2.5% next
been trimmed by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5%. This year (marking respective downward revisions of 0.2
compares with the IMF’s growth estimate of 3.1% for percentage points and 0.1 percentage points),
last year, which the IMF has opted to leave consistent from an expansion of 2.4% in 2015. The
unchanged. Last year’s performance was the projection for the Eurozone was lowered by the same
weakest since the contraction of -0.1% in 2009. amount for both years, to 1.5% for 2016 and 1.6% for
2017, similarly consistent with estimated growth of
US Dollar Index 1.6% last year. Japan saw the most significant
downward revision among this group, with estimates
105 cut by 0.5 percentage points for this year to 0.5% and
by 0.4 percentage points to a contraction of -0.1% next
100 year.
For emerging markets and developing economies
95 low commodity prices have contributed to further
trimming of GDP growth estimates for Russia, Brazil,
90 Sub Saharan Africa and West Africa over the next two
years. In contrast, projections for China were lifted by
85 0.2 percentage points for both years to 6.5% and 6.2%
respectively, but down from growth of 6.9% in 2015.
80 The economy’s transition towards a service- and
Source: Thomson Reuters consumption-based model continues, but the IMF
warns “bumps along the way” could have substantial
75
Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 spillover effects.

OIL MARKETS
RUSSIA CONSIDERS ITS OPTIONS: Russian Oil Production Monthly M b/d

PRODUCTION AND EXPORT STRATEGIES 11.30
Source: IEA
11.25
A s Russia heads into an April meeting in Qatar

along with other oil producers, the country is
considering a number of output and export scenarios
11.20
11.15
which may help to strengthen its position in a
challenging global oil environment. For crude oil, 11.10
these considerations are focused around two areas, 11.05
first a production freeze (or even decrease) and
11.00
second, where this crude output will be sold to.
Russia is currently the world’s largest oil producer 10.95
and in March had an average oil output of 11.25M b/ 10.90
Jan-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Apr-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
d (including NGLs), according to the International
Energy Agency (IEA). The country raised it’s output
to post-Soviet highs at the beginning of 2016 but has
also been one of the most prominent non-OPEC
countries to both voice concerns over the current from its Baltic, Black Sea and Far East port of Kozmino
global oil market’s oversupply and express an are set to rise by 228K b/d y-o-y to 2.78M b/d, Energy
interest in potential co-ordinated action to lift prices. Intelligence reports. Factors cited for the rise include i)
The country was the only non-OPEC member of an lower export duties, ii) reduced domestic demand
output freeze agreement in February with Saudi (Russia’s economy is projected by the IMF to contract
Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela (but this required other 1.8% in 2016) which could mean that exports still rise
countries to join before action was taken). even if output is capped or declines, iii) accumulated
stocks in the system and iv) that the export plans can
However, outside of a freeze agreement, Russia is be subject to change. The slump in the value of the
traditionally thought to be limited in its ability to Rouble has also reduced Russian oil producers output
reduce output. Much of its oil is produced in Siberia costs, increasing their international competitiveness.
where permafrost and potential rock deformation if
pressure is reduced make lowering output difficult. Of the 2.78M b/d that is set to be exported in 1H16,
However, new technology and potential mothballing higher Baltic exports (+219K b/d to 1.55M b/d) account
of long-term non-profitable fields may indicate that for the majority of this. Since 3Q15 Baltic volumes
some cuts are possible. Russia’s Deputy Energy have bucked the recent trend of declines. Russian
Minister noted in the media in March that it was producers are also aiming to protect their market share
“technically possible” to reduce the country’s oil from growing Middle Eastern crude supply to
output by 5%, which at February levels would be Northwest Europe and the Baltic. But Black Sea
around 561K b/d. exports (-11K b/d to 622K b/d), are set to come under
pressure as Russia reduces shipments from the region
However despite discussions of output action, for the (as more supplies are directed to the country’s Far
moment scheduled 1H16 Russian crude exports East ports), while loadings at Novorossiysk have also
Russian Crude Exports Quarterly M b/d, Y-o-Y been sporadically disrupted by poor weather
conditions.
300
Growth in exports through Kozmino (+19K b/d to 604K
250 Baltic Black Sea Kozmino
Source: IEA b/d) has slowed but Russia is expected to continue to
200 focus on Asia for growth. Chinese imports of Russian
150 crude surged in 2015 and this trend shows little sign of
abating in 2016, with China becoming the dominant
100 buyer for Kozmino cargoes, while South Korea and
50 Japan have also taken significant volumes. Russia’s
- Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated in late 2015
that the country expects up to 30% of its crude oil
-50 exports to head to Asia by as soon as 2020, with
-100 infrastructure improvements (rail and pipeline) and oil
-150 exploration in its largely unexplored East Siberia and
Far East region lifting volumes. Russia has also been
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16*
improving its energy ties with India, with Rosneft set to

take a 49% stake in Indian refiner Essar Oil.

OIL MARKETS
SUMMARY OIL STATISTICS (million b/d)
Annual averages Year to Date: Percentage Latest
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Data to: Change** Month
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION (incl Non-OPEC NGLs)
Saudi Arabia 9.59 9.41 9.55 10.12 10.19 Mar 16 4.34% 10.17
Iran 3.00 2.68 2.81 2.86 3.17 Mar 16 12.66% 3.30
Other MEG OPEC 9.39 9.59 9.78 10.35 10.60 Mar 16 7.10% 10.44
Non-MEG OPEC (*Incl Indo) 10.26 9.55 8.98 8.83 8.61 Mar 16 -2.27% 8.56
FSU 13.71 13.86 13.88 14.00 14.18 Mar 16 1.02% 14.16
US 8.81 10.02 11.48 12.62 12.45 Mar 16 0.23% 12.39
Latin America (incl Mexico) 7.09 6.84 7.15 7.16 6.97 Mar 16 -3.68% 7.04
Europe 3.47 3.29 3.31 3.47 3.54 Mar 16 2.51% 3.57
Sources: IEA
OIL PRODUCTS DEMAND
US 18.67 18.89 19.07 19.43 19.46 Feb 16 0.59% 19.52
Japan 4.70 4.54 4.32 4.21 4.63 Feb 16 -4.39% 4.91
EU (Main 4)* 7.08 6.94 6.87 6.89 6.81 Feb 16 0.14% 7.13
South Korea 2.24 2.29 2.35 2.43 2.69 Feb 16 8.84% 2.72
PRC 9.77 10.01 10.23 10.76 10.96 Feb 16 1.50% 11.01
FSU 4.67 4.74 4.67 4.73 4.91 Feb 16 1.16% 4.53
Latin America (excl Mexico) 6.53 6.44 6.65 6.54 5.88 Feb 16 -7.18% 6.04
Sources: Energy Intelligence (Oil Mark et Intel)
CRUDE OIL & NGL EXPORTS
FSU (seaborne) 4.79 4.80 4.66 5.12 5.57 Feb 16 5.00% 5.64
FSU (Druzhba pipeline) 1.08 1.03 1.01 1.07 1.05 Feb 16 1.45% 1.09
Mexico 1.26 1.19 1.14 1.17 1.18 Feb 16 -7.99% 1.24
UK 0.60 0.64 0.60 0.64 0.61 Jan 16 1.61% 0.61
Sources: IEA, Pemex, PRC Customs
CRUDE OIL IMPORTS
US 8.49 7.71 7.34 6.80 7.34 Feb 16 2.92% 7.68
Japan 3.65 3.63 3.44 3.38 3.43 Feb 16 -3.91% 3.46
OECD Europe 9.34 8.93 8.63 9.49 9.02 Jan 16 0.71% 9.02
South Korea 2.58 2.50 2.54 2.81 2.91 Mar 16 5.70% 2.71
India 3.68 3.82 3.80 3.94 4.27 Feb 16 12.52% 4.27
PRC 5.43 5.66 6.19 6.74 7.35 Mar 16 12.30% 7.71
Sources: US DoE, PAJ, IEA, KNSO, PRC customs
REFINED PRODUCTS IMPORTS
US 2.10 2.07 1.88 2.05 2.06 Jan 16 -8.16% 2.06
Japan 0.65 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.63 Feb 16 -4.48% 0.56
OECD Europe 3.40 3.71 3.79 3.80 3.70 Jan 16 -0.99% 3.70
PRC 0.76 0.76 0.58 0.60 0.65 Feb 16 6.53% 0.69
Sources: US DoE, PAJ, IEA, PRC customs
REFINERY THROUGHPUTS
US 15.00 15.31 15.84 16.20 15.88 Feb 16 2.78% 15.77
Japan 3.23 3.27 3.13 3.14 3.37 Feb 16 -2.74% 3.37
OECD Europe 12.11 11.45 11.43 12.10 11.95 Feb 16 -0.67% 11.87
South Korea 2.60 2.50 2.53 2.80 3.06 Feb 16 8.72% 3.14
Sources: IEA
CRUDE SPOT OIL PRICES (US$ per barrel)
Brent (dated) 111.58 108.68 98.99 52.45 33.90 Mar 16 -37.21% 38.49
WTI (Cushing) 94.15 97.94 93.17 48.72 33.24 Mar 16 -31.55% 37.76
Urals (delivery Mediterranean) 110.74 108.37 98.02 51.57 32.29 Mar 16 -39.04% 36.85
Dubai Light 109.05 105.51 96.61 50.91 30.42 Mar 16 -41.34% 35.12
Sources: IEA
* EU (Main 4) = Germany, France, Italy and the UK.
** % changes for 2016 figures (year to date) against same period of 2015, e.g. Jan-Nov '16 vs Jan-Nov '15

TANKER MARKET
CLEAN TANKER MARKETS UNDER VLCC Spot Rates $’000/day

PRESSURE 120
100
T anker markets have again demonstrated their

volatile nature. Dirty markets spiked mid-March,
with VLCC rates driving the sector, on the back of i)
80
60
increased Middle East exports (Iraq output hit a rec-
ord high in March), ii) loading delays in the Far East 40
and iii) storage interest for Aframaxes and Suezmax-
20
es in Asia. But levels have since declined as Asian
refinery maintenance weighs on crude demand. For 0
280K MEG-USG
the clean sector, LR rates rose through March as -20 260K WAFR-China
Asian naphtha demand remained strong and addi- 265K MEG-Japan
tional support came from strong Aframax earnings. -40
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
However, rates have fallen rapidly in April as naph-
tha buying slowed and westbound arbitrage opportu-
nities from East of Suez remained limited. MR rates
in Asia increased steadily due to strong short-haul AVERAGE MONTHLY TCE
enquiry and robust Australian demand. But, Atlantic Assessments ($/day) now inc allowances for ECA zones
MR rates were under pressure as the transatlantic Dirty March February 2016 YTD
diesel and gasoline arbitrages remained closed.
265K MEG-Japan 57,951 46,409 57,015
DIRTY - VLCC: MEG-Japan earnings surged mid-
March to their highest since January at over $85,000/ 280K MEG-USG 26,033 22,272 30,073
day amid i) a sharp jump in Middle East cargoes fix- 130K WAFR-USAC 27,588 31,784 32,894
ing for March, ii) ongoing delays in the Far East, and 135K Bsea-Med 30,512 36,448 39,628
iii) heightened West African fixing, particularly to Asia
70K Caribs-USG 23,187 27,552 24,202
(raising tonne miles and attracting eastern ballasters
away from the MEG). Rates spiked at W100 80K Indo-Japan 38,068 26,210 31,191
(US$19.3/t) mid-month, double the level at the start 80K UKC-UKC 25,741 25,073 29,518
of March, but quickly fell back to W62.5 (US$12.1/t). Clean
A flurry of options cargoes and some replacement
75K MEG-Japan 19,882 21,914 23,973
fixtures caused levels to bounce to W90 (US$17.4/t)
at the end of the month but rates fell to W60 in early 55K MEG-Japan 17,910 15,974 18,662
April as Asian refinery maintenance gets underway. 37K UKC-USAC 9,627 13,016 13,335
Vessel congestion at ports of Qingdao and Basrah 38K USG-UKC 10,681 11,096 10,886
as well as terminal issues in Thailand have provided
30K SEAS-Japan 11,170 10,113 10,802
some support, but not enough to clear prompt posi-
tion lists that have also included several newbuilds. At Basrah, although April loadings were expected to be
relatively stable on the month at around 3.28M b/d, the
May schedule has been cut to 3.09M b/d due to
Suezmax Spot Rates $’000/day maintenance and the current backlog, reports Reuters.
140 Similarly, WAFR-China rates spiked mid-month at W85
135K BS-Med (US$24.3/t) as the strong Middle East market provided
120 130K WAFR-USAC support and Asian enquiry picked up, driven by China.
China’s loadings of West African crude in April are ex-
100 pected to be the highest in 19 months at 1.11M b/d as
80
strong demand from independent refiners combines
with the additional volumes now heading from Angola
60 following a deal with Sinopec, reported Reuters. Total
loadings to Asia are set to rise to over 2M b/d, the
40 highest since July 2015. Rates fell once enquiry
slowed, but not as severely as in the Middle East.
20
In the Caribbean, rates were briefly supported by
0 strength across the VLCC sector mid-month, but Atlan-
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
tic tonnage supply has remained elevated on i) supply

TANKER MARKET
and infrastructure issues at a number of Latin Ameri- Aframax Spot Rates $’000/day
can ports in the region that have trimmed cargo vol- 120
umes, ii) lower demand for Latin American crude and 80K UKC-UKC
iii) an absence of eastbound Forties cargoes. 100 70K Caribs-USG
SUEZMAX: West African rates were under pressure 80K Indo-Japan
at the start of March keeping WAFR-UKC rates at 80
W67.5 (US$9.2/t) as European refinery maintenance
got underway and US demand for W. African car- 60
goes fell. Support came mid-month amid a tighter
position list as more ships opened in the US 40
(following the recent rise in W. African imports) and
opted for regional or Asian bound voyages, rather 20
than returning to WAFR position lists, helping push
rates to W82.5 (US$11.3/t). But, rates ended March 0
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
at W75 as the slow European demand persisted.
The strength in West Africa provided brief support to
Black Sea-Med rates mid-month, with rates rising to
W82.5 (US$6.3/t) despite slow enquiry. Turkish ber of end-March/early April cargoes amid a longer
Straits delays and a strong Aframax market later in Primorsk loading schedule for April (due to Russian
the month prevented rates from falling further to- refinery maintenance). Cross-UKC rates peaked at
wards the end of March. W125 (US$8.9/t) end month having been stable at
W92.5 (US$6.6/t) through 1H March. Mediterranean
Middle East markets gained support mid-month as i) rates were supported by i) delays caused by bad
the surge in VLCC rates prompted charterers to split weather and port storage constraints, ii) a rise in cargo
stems and ii) ships were taken on timecharter and for volumes and iii) the return of Iraqi Kurdistan flows to
short-term storage in Singapore. Ceyhan. Cross-Mediterranean rates rose from W80
AFRAMAX: Rates fell rapidly in the Caribbean and (US$6.7/t) to W120 (US$10/t) but have since fallen to
US Gulf from mid-March (despite ongoing delays W82.5 (US$6.9/t) in early April as enquiry and Turkish
caused by record US crude stocks). This was due to Straits delays fell.
i) a force majeure on Colombian exports following In Asia, Indo-Japan rates jumped almost 70 points mid-
pipeline attacks, ii) a number of oil company relets, month to the highest since July 2015 at W187.5
iii) a week long Easter holiday in Venezuela and iv) (US$20.6/t) as i) a number of ships were taken on
ships returning to the position list that were previous- timecharter and for short-term fuel oil storage in Singa-
ly held up by delays. As such, Caribs-USG rates fell pore and ii) long-haul enquiry increased. But, timechar-
from W142.5 (US$13.3/t) to W90 (US$8.4/t) by end- ter enquiry slowed and tonnage supply grew amid a
month. dearth of short and long-haul cargoes, while demand
Rates in the North Sea and Baltic jumped mid-March for Suezmaxes on storage also alleviated some of the
as a tight tonnage list met the emergence of a num- Aframax demand. Thus rates fell quickly to W115
(US$12.7/t) in early April.
Panamax Spot Rates $’000/day PANAMAX: Caribs-USAC rates remained relatively
stable around W125 (US$9.9/t) (despite the rapid de-
70 cline in Aframax earnings and reported delays at Vene-
50 Caribs-USG zuela) but were under pressure by end month. In con-
60
55 UKC-USG
trast, UKC-USG rates continued to slide to W90
(US$16.6/t), taking earnings to the lowest since July
50
2014, as the high VGO stocks in the US limited arbi-
40 trage opportunities. But, rates recovered towards end
month (to W115 in April) in line with the rise in Europe-
30 an Aframax markets and the return of US refineries
from maintenance.
20
CLEAN - LR: MEG-Japan LR2 rates rose about 20
10 points in 2H March to W108 (US$20.6/t) as support
came from i) the flurry of Aframax fuel oil storage inter-
0
est, ii) firm Asian naphtha demand and iii) a closed
Jan-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-14
Apr-15
Apr-16
West to Asia naphtha arbitrage that reduced the num-

TANKER MARKET
ber of ships arriving East of Suez. But, levels have LR Spot Rates $’000/day
fallen quickly in April as i) ballasters arrive from the 70
quiet European market, ii) Asian naphtha buying fal- 75K MEG-Japan
ters amid cracker turnarounds and high Chinese gas- 60
oline stocks and iii) the jet arbitrage from Asia to Eu- 55K MEG-Japan
rope remains closed. Fleet growth in 1Q16 is starting 50
to add further underlying pressure. For LR1s, tight
40
ship supply and stronger demand amid healthy east
and westbound volumes from the Middle East boost- 30
ed rates, with MEG-Japan rising to W127 (US$24.2/
t) from W100 (US$19.1/t) at the start of the month. 20
But, a lack of enquiry and weak MR rates have
weighed on the sector and levels have fallen in line 10
with the LR2 market to W92.5. 0
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
MR: UKC-USAC rates fell mid-March from W117.5
(US$15.8/t) to W92.5 (US$12.4/t) by end-month as
the selloff of winter gasoline limited import demand
from the US, taking earnings to the lowest since Sep- 6-12 months periods they are pushing for.
tember 2014. USG-UKC rates were under pressure Notable VLCC fixtures included a 2009 build taken for
in 1H March as the diesel arbitrage to Europe re- 7 years to an Indian charterer for a reported $34,500/
mained closed, with levels falling to W82.5 (US$15.2/ day. In addition two newbuilds from a Taiwanese com-
t) from W125 (US$23.1/t). But a brief opening pany fixed for 2 years at circa $38,500/day while an oil
caused a spike in rates to W122.5 end-month while company chartered three VLCCs, with the younger
Latin American demand continued to provide under- 2009 build reportedly at circa $46,000/day for 1 year
lying support, despite rising regional output. while details on the other two older ships (2002 and
In Asia, Singapore-Japan rates rose from W134 2004) were not declared. Some short term activity was
(US$13.5/t) to W152.5 (US$15.3/t) as trade was sup- also reported with rates around $40,000/day for 3-5
ported by i) strong Australian demand, ii) robust months. For Suezmaxes, two 1 year extensions were
cross-Singapore volumes and iii) high exports from reported to an oil major at $26,250/day plus profit
China and Japan. Levels are now under pressure, share while short term storage activity for 1-3 months
falling to W136 in April, as enquiry has slowed and was paying around $35-40,000/day depending on the
ship supply has been boosted by a number of oil vessel and the delivery. Three Aframaxes fixed for 2
company relets. years at $23-23,500/day while another four were con-
cluded for 1 year at circa $26-27,000/day, the majority
PERIOD: Timecharter activity remained low through-
were booked for lightering business in the US Gulf.
out March. Owners still seem to be interested in fix-
Short term activity of 2-6 months paid from $25,000/
ing for longer periods of 18-36 months while their
day to low $30,000's/day depending on the ship and
hire ideas differ from charterers offers for the shorter
the prompt delivery. A Latin American oil company ex-
tended five dirty Panamaxes for 22 months at a rate of
about $20,500/day plus profit share for the larger two
MR Spot Rates $’000/day 74,000 dwt units and $19,000/day plus profit share for
the smaller 68,000 dwt ships. In addition a 2005 built
40
70,000 dwt vessel was booked for 1 year at $21,500/
35
day to an oil company.
30
In the clean sector, a newbuild LR2 fixed but details
25
were unclear while only one LR1 was reportedly con-
20 cluded at a new benchmark low of $19,750/day for 1
15 year while an oil company was trying to relet two ves-
10 sels in the high $19,000's/day for 10 and 12 month pe-
5 riods. On the MR's, due to the paper market picking up
37K UKC-USAC at the start of March, around 12 ships were booked for
0
30K Sing-Japan 1 year with rates ranging from $17-18,000/day depend-
-5
38K USG-UKC ing on the vessel and delivery. Three ice class Handies
-10 fixed for a pool operator for 3 years/option 1 year/1
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
year at a firm $15,600/$16,500/$17,500/day.

CHEMICALS
ANOTHER STRONG MONTH IN 5,000t Easy Chemicals Spot Rates $/t

THE AMERICAS
120
110
T he shortage of space in the US Gulf that began
back in November 2015 continued more or less
solidly through March. The Easter holiday period did
100
90
cause a period of reflection from charterers, some of 80
whom opted to defer shipments into April instead.
70
Methanol, ethanol, styrene and EDC were the 60
principal grades to Asia, with a showing of MX by
50
month end. Rates were very strong for the entire Rotterdam - Far East Ulsan - Houston
month. USG/India-MEG continued in the same vein 40
Houston - Far East Ulsan - Rotterdam
as February, with no new space opening up. Rates 30
Jan-14
May-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
May-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Sep-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Nov-15
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
therefore continued on a firm track.
Transatlantic eastbound was on the whole pretty
strong. Occasionally space would open up when a
ship ran late, but generally charterers preferred to €30s/t of February.
hold onto the vessels they had fixed due to a lack of
alternatives. Rates were mostly firm. Interest in Northbound out of the Mediterranean remained stable,
shipping styrene to Europe ebbed in favour of selling keeping rates surprisingly steady. Inter-Med demand
it to Asia, but there were plenty of parcels such as was pretty tight for much of the month, although there
cumene, methanol, ethanol, biodiesel, acetic acid etc was a brief spell when supply in the West
to fill any space. Mediterranean looked a little higher and some routine
shipments managed to secure a minor rebate off the
Little new space opened up on the USG/Caribs normal level. It was linked to a week or so when the
service, with rates generally staying solid across the biodiesel market faded, but as soon as it recovered,
board. USG/EC. South America started to see more space tightened once more.
ethanol requirements, along with cargoes of styrene,
lubes, PX and caustic. Rates were also unchanged. Westbound transatlantic lacked excitement, and rates
declined. Fortunately for scheduled carriers, rates back
European coastal business saw a few more peaks out of the US Gulf were so strong that anyone who
and troughs than in February. The North Sea and wished to participate in the bonanza could effectively
Baltic regions were quieter and prompt space easier ballast and therefore their presence had little impact on
to find and at more competitive numbers than in the parcels trade.
recent months. Southbound into the Mediterranean
also had a slow spell, with a surplus of open tonnage Europe/Asia found renewed interest, especially with
at times in the 1H March. Some rates into the West parcels of styrene, methanol, PX, OX and base oils,
Mediterranean fell into the high €20s/t from the low and March space filled rather quickly, and at slightly
firmer levels than in February. Europe/India-MEG was
livened up by a large number of parcels competing for
space and therefore pushing up freights.
5,000t Easy Chemical Spot Rates $/t
Poor demand in the palm oil sector meant increased
80 competition for chemical cargoes in some domestic
Asia markets, such as intra-SE. Asia and northbound
70
routes. Intra-Far East markets did better and tonnage
60 was booked ahead for most of March, causing rates to
50 recover to more usual levels. Asia export markets
struggled with a non-existent benzene arbitrage to the
40
US. Instead, owners fixed biodiesel, UAN and
30 sulphuric acid to the US and only small parcels of
20
solvents to Europe. Rates fell on both services.
10 Houston - Santos Houston - EC Mexico The MEG-India region stabilised but demand was
Rotterdam - US Gulf Houston - Rotterdam erratic both east and westbound, and rates remained
0
soft throughout the month. Only regional business
Jan-14
May-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
May-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Sep-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Nov-15
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
between India and the MEG performed satisfactorily.

LNG
LNGC Supply at April 2016 No. of ships

GORGON SHIPS ITS FIRST CARGO 70
Excludes possible slippage from reported ship delivery dates
60
I n March, LNGC markets continued very much in

the same vein as February, with a large surplus of
shipping in the East and the West being buoyant, but
50
Ships on order
Source: SSY
Existing fleet
governed strongly by a lack of available volumes. 40

The month was dominated by the ENARSA tender
30
for up to 33 cargoes into Argentina, but this failed to
raise sentiment, with the majority of the volumes 20
contracted to portfolio players. With Easter at the end
of the month, there was some relief that holidays 10
broke up a market which does not currently know
which way to go. Certainly, falling product prices that 0
< 1980
> 2018
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
are eroding margins across the basins is not helping
the cause. year of build / scheduled delivery
After February’s start up of Louisiana’s Sabine Pass
LNG plant, another new source of cargo supply has Panama Canal’s new locks had been rectified and that
come on line. The LNGC “Asia Excellence” (159,600 the enlarged waterway will be inaugurated on 26 June.
cbm, blt 2015) sailed on 20 March from Western A new 49m (106.8ft) beam limit will apply (up from
Australia’s Gorgon LNG plant, carrying the maiden 32.3m, or 106ft), with a draft restriction of 15.2m (50ft),
cargo from its first 5.2mtpa train. Yet the plant has instead of 12m (39.5ft) Tropical Fresh Water (TFW). All
since developed technical problems that operator existing LNGCs except Q-flexes, Q-maxes and a few
Chevron says may keep it out of service throughout Moss ships should thus be able to transit.
April and possibly May. The Maritime & Port Authority of Singapore (MPA)
The first cargo from the Sabine Pass LNG plant on reported that it should be able to offer LNG bunkers
the US Gulf arrived at Guanabara Bay in Brazil on 14 from early 2017. Supply licences has been awarded to
March on the LNGC “Asia Vision” (159,600cbm, blt Pavilion Gas and to a partnership between BG and
2014). This, plus the plant’s next 2 cargoes, were Keppel Offshore & Marine. MPA will work with these
bought by Petrobras. By end-March, four shipments suppliers to devise bunkering infrastructure required for
had taken place from Sabine Pass. LNG-fuelled ships calling at Singapore.
Cedigaz, the international association for natural gas Safety and environmental inspections of Dunkirk LNG
estimated that world LNG trade grew by 5Mt to 241.2 terminal in northern France were undertaken in March.
Mt (+2.1%) in 2015. This was despite a decline of Subject to passing these inspections, approval should
5Mt (-2.8%) in Asia’s imports, to 172.8Mt - its first soon follow from the Oil Companies International
such fall since 2009, amid milder weather and slower Marine Forum (OCIMF), the international organisation
economic growth in Japan, Korea and China. for users of oil and LNG terminals. The facility is due
It was also reported in March that seepage from the on line in June with a regas capacity of 13 Bcm p.a..
Croatia’s government indicated that it would now prefer
Estimated LNGC Spot Earnings $/day the country’s first LNG terminal to comprise a floating
facility, rather than an onshore facility, due to the lower
160,000
cost and shorter lead time this could offer. Reports
138-150,0000cbm steam
140,000 claim that this could be in service in 2 years, rather
160,000+cbm DFDE
than 5 years for a land-based terminal at Krk Island.
120,000
Italy’s Eni stated that it aims to make a final investment
100,000
decision (FID) “before June” on the 3.4mtpa Coral
80,000 floating LNG (“FLNG”) project off Mozambique in East
Africa. If this proceeds as planned, LNG output might
60,000
start in 2021 or 2022. Eni’s plans to develop Coral
40,000 were approved by Mozambique in February.
End-month figures
20,000
In Far East Russia, the Sakhalin-2 LNG plant, which
had experienced a power outage since 28 January that
0 cut output by 50%, resumed normal operations on 28
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
February. Despite a nameplate capacity of 9.6mtpa,

actual output has exceeded 10mtpa since 2012.

SALE & PURCHASE
Bulk Carrier Secondhand Prices $m

BULK CARRIERS $160
$140 Handysize
C ontinued weakness in the dry bulk freight market

in March did not stem buying interest in existing
ships. Instead, SSY’s records show that, excluding
$120
$100
Supramax
Panamax
Capesize
vessels below 10,000dwt, 49 sales for further trading
$80
ensued - up slightly from February’s 44 transactions Basis 5-year-old vessels
reported deals and also 5 sales above March 2015 $60
volumes. Continued willingness to acquire tonnage in
$40
this sector reflects a perception among would-be
buyers that prices are now at very competitive levels. $20
It may also indicate a belief by some owners that, Source: SSY
$0
after this year, fleet additions are set to fall sharply.
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Along with ongoing scrapping of older units and
further restraint in new ship ordering, this could
provide the basis for an eventual charter market
upturn before end-2017. dwt, blt 2012, Daewoo) for US$12.4m - reportedly to
clients of Thenamaris. We understand that clients of
Handymax/Supramax (40-64,999dwt) and Panamax
Embiricos purchased the “Liberty Desire” (81,800dwt,
(65-99,999dwt) deals were very prevalent in March:
blt 2013, Daewoo) for US$13.4m and the “Liberty
22 sales occurred of the former (up from 19 deals in
Dream” (81,800dwt, blt 2012, Daewoo) for US$12.4m.
February) and 15 of the latter. This was the highest
Clients of Kambara Kisen were busy, selling the 2008-
number of Panamax sales since September 2012
built “Tenshin Maru” (82,687dwt, blt 2008, Tsuneishi
and compared with just 8 reported deals in February.
Zhoushan) to clients of Erasmus for US$7.9m. They
In the Capesize sector, clients of Eastern Pacific also sold for US$9.2m the “F. D. Isabella” (82,191dwt,
acquired the “Aquacaro” (180,600dwt, bt 2016, blt 2009, Tsuneishi Zhoushan) to clients of Erasmus
Imabari) at region US$33m, while the 2006-built after some 14 would-be buyers had inspected her.
“Spring Hydrangea” (176,955dwt, blt Namura) was UniCredit secured the auction sale of Kaptanolgu
committed to Greeks at US$12.5-13.0m. The “Global Shipping’s “Zeynep K” and “Sadan K” (both 81,000dwt,
Partnership” (177,000 dwt, blt 2006, Namura) tied up blt 2010, STX) to clients of Sea World Management &
to clients of Winning Shipping at similar levels. This Trading for US$9.25m each “en bloc.”
was up on levels last done: the “Shin Sho” (177,000
Of Panamax sales, the “Lowlands Camellia” (76,600
dwt, blt 2006, Mitsui) had sold in February to clients
dwt, blt 2006, Sasebo), having initially failed to clients
of Samos Steamship at US$12.2m.
of Sea Pioneer at US$6.4m, was reportedly sold to
Liberty sold four Daewoo-built Kamsarmaxes: the clients of Apollonia Lines for US$6.2m.
“Liberty Dawn” (81,800dwt, blt 2013, Daewoo), which
On the Ultramax front, it was widely reported that the
had reportedly been in cold layup since February,
“Red Daisy” (61,000dwt, blt 2016, Iwagi) had sold to an
was sold for US$13.4m and “Liberty Destiny” (81,800
unnamed compatriot Japanese party at US$18.5m. A
time-charter back to the sellers was also rumoured to
Bulk Carrier Sales by Month No. of ships have been attached to this deal. Clients of LA Maritime
60 S.A. acquired the “Global Island” (53,566dwt, blt 2004,
100,000 & over
Source: SSY Iwagi) for US$4.3-US$4.5m. Elsewhere, the “Pacific
50 65-99,999
Guardian” (52,525dwt, blt 2006, Tsuneishi Cebu) was
40-64,999
sold to unnamed buyers for US$4.2m.
40 10-39,999
In the Handysize sector, Greek interests purchased the
30
“CS Chara” (30,600dwt, blt 2006, Cochin) at US$3.6m.
20
TANKERS
10
In contrast to activity involving bulkers seen in March,
0 the tanker sale & purchase market remained relatively
Jan-14
May-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
May-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Sep-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Nov-15
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
muted. Reported sales of existing tonnage for further

trading fell for a second successive month, with just 19

SALE & PURCHASE
deals concluded; this compared with 25 such sales a
year earlier. Many of these March deals (12 sales) Oil Tanker Secondhand Prices $m
involved ships below 50,000dwt, but some activity $175
also emerged in the Aframax (85-119,999dwt) fleet MR (clean)
segment. Yet a dearth of competitively-priced sales $150 Aframax
Suezmax
candidates in the Suezmax (120-199,999dwt) and
$125 VLCC
VLCC (200,000 dwt & above) sectors meant that no
sales of these sizes completed. $100
Source: SSY
The largest tanker sold in March was the “Pacific

$75
London” (113,000dwt, blt 1999, Samsung), with this
being taken by unnamed buyers for US$15m; this $50
was one of 7 Aframax sales in the month. Also in this
size range, the “Trident Star” (105,500 dwt, blt 2005, $25
Namura) was acquired by Nathalin early in March at Basis 5-year-old vessels
a firm US$26.5m, her higher price partly due to the $0
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Jul-12
Jan-13
Jul-13
Jan-14
Jul-14
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
long (one month) subjects attached to her sale. The
most modern sale in this sector was of the Chinese-
built, coiled “Ratna Puja” (105,000dwt, blt 2006,
SWS) - acquired for US$22.5m by Eurotankers from In terms of smaller tonnage, Searights Maritime sold
India Steamship. the stainless steel “Sunflower II” (14,298dwt, blt 2002,
No LR1 or LR2 sales ensued in March, following the sakawa) to Korean buyers for US$11.25m. The sellers
failure of the prospective buyers of the 2006-built had purchased her in late December last year from
“Maritina” (74,993dwt, blt Onomichi) to lodge the Japan’s Iino Lines for US$11m. The slightly smaller
deposit on an intended sale at slightly over US$26m. “Dong-A Sirius” (11,959dwt, blt 2002, Asakawa) was
sold by Korea’s Dong-A Tanker to unnamed buyers for
Buying interest was seen again for MRs, with several almost US$12m.
sales completing. The IMO3 “Amalienborg” (40,058
dwt, blt 2004, ShinA) was sold by Dannenborg/Stena
to Chinese buyers for US$16m, with a 5-year charter DEMOLITION
back at US$14,000/day. She had been committed on
subjects in mid-February to unnamed buyers for a
price close to US$16m, basis 3 year charter back at The exceptionally busy start to 2016 seen in demolition
US$16,000/day, but that sale had failed to complete. sales continued in March: in all, 99 such deals ensued,
Still in the same sector, the IMO2-3 “Simoa” (40,354 these totalling 5.31mdwt (1.06mlwt). Activity was again
dwt, blt Hyundai Mipo, 2004) was purchased for dominated by disposals of non-tankers, these totalling
US$13.9m by Sea World. 92 vessels of 5.04mdwt (1.01mlwt). By contrast, just 7
oil carriers of 0.27mdwt (0.06mlwt) were sold. Thus,
The dirty-trading Handy tanker “Searambler” (39,551 although total 1q16 sales of 253 ships of 15.55mdwt
dwt, blt Hyundai Mipo, 2001) was purchased from (2.48mlwt) far exceeded year-earlier volumes, those of
Thenamaris by unnamed buyers for US$11m. tankers fell well short of 1q15 levels: only 16 sales
occurred, against 38 in the first 3 months of 2015.
Tanker Sales by Month No. of ships Two factors may further boost forthcoming scrap sales
from their already remarkable volumes. The first of
50
Source: SSY 200,000 & over these is a partial rally in prices paid by breakers: from
45 120-199,999 just US$227/lwt at end-February, prices of bulkers for
40 85-119,999 breaking on the sub-Continent rose to US$269/lwt 4
10-84,999
35 weeks later, with further subsequent gains in April.
30
Future demolition sales may also be supported by the
partial rally seen since mid-January in global oil prices.
25
By leading to corresponding increases in the cost of
20 marine bunker fuels, these have added to the incentive
15 for vessel owners to dispose of older, less fuel-efficient
10 tonnage.
5 Ship sales for breaking in 2016 to date are examined
0 more fully in the “Fleet Developments” section of this
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
May-14
Jul-14
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-14
Nov-14
Sep-15
Nov-15
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
report (page 12).

SALE & PURCHASE
Representative Bulk Carrier Sales March 2016

Name DWT Built Yard Gear Remarks
CS Chara 30,600 2006 Cochin Crs 4x30 ts Region $3.6m to Tide Line
Pacific Guardian 52,525 2006 Tsuneishi Cebu Crs 4x30 ts
Region $4.2m to undisclosed buyers
Global Island 53,566 2004 Iwagi Crs 4x30 ts
Region $4.3m to LA Maritime S.A.
Red Daisy 61,000 2016 Iwagi Crs 4x30.7 ts Region $18.5m to Japanese buyers
Lowlands Camellia 76,600 2006 Sasebo Region $6.2m to Apollonia Lines
Zeynep K 81,000 2010 STX Region $10.25m each 'en bloc' to Sea World
Sadan K 81,000 2010 STX Management & Trading
Liberty Dawn 81,800 2013 Daewoo Region $13.5m to clients of Thenamaris
Liberty Destiny 81,800 2012 Daewoo Region $12.4m to clients of Thenamaris
Liberty Desire 81,800 2013 Daewoo Region $13.4m to clients of Embiricos
Liberty Dream 81,800 2012 Daewoo Region $12.4m to clients of Embiricos
F.D. Isabella 82,191 2009 Tsuneishi Zhoushan Region $9.2m to clients of Erasmus
Tenshin Maru 82,687 2008 Tsuneishi Zhoushan Region $7.9m to clients of Erasmus
Spring Hydrangea 176,955 2006 Namura Region mid/high $12m's to Greek buyers
Global Partnership 177,000 2006 Namura Region mid/high $12m's to Winning Shipping
Aquacaro 180,600 2016 Imabari Region $33m to Eastern Pacific
Representative Tanker Sales March 2016

Name DWT Built Yard Features Sold for/Remarks
Nogogini 11,600 1996 Fukuoka STST Region $4m to Far Eastern buyers
Dong-A Sirius 11,959 2002 Asakawa STST Region $12m to undisclosed buyers
Oceanic Cerise 13,221 2008 Jinse Epoxy Region $11.8m to Team Tankers
Sunflower II 14,298 2002 Asakawa STST Region $11.25m to Korean buyers
Searambler 39,551 2001 Hyundai Mipo Region $11m to undisclosed buyers
Amalienborg 40,058 2004 ShinA Region $16m to Chinese buyers with timecharter back
Simoa 40,354 2004 Hyundai Mipo IMO 2-3 Region $13.9m to Sea World
Golden Gulf 46,700 1995 Hyundai Region $7.5m to Middle Eastern buyers
Kassos 95,420 1995 Hyundai Coiled Region $8.5m to Arya
Great White 104,024 1999 Samsung Region $15m to Soechi
Ratna Puja 105,000 2006 SWS Coiled Region $22.5m to Eurotankers
Trident Star 105,500 2005 Namura Region $26.5m to Nathalin
SKS Tana 109,906 1996 Hyundai Region $7.5m to Kardeniz
Pacific London 113,000 1999 Samsung Region $15m to undisclosed buyers
Indicative Sales for Demolition March 2016

Name Type DWT LWT Built Remarks
Haj Walid Bulk 23,418 5,358 1985 Region $222 for delivery India
New Emerald Bulk 45,554 8,696 1996 Region $290 with delivery options
The Creator Bulk 68,519 9,861 1995 Region $260 for delivery India
Kythnos Warrior Bulk 72,072 9,617 1996 Region $230 for delivery India
Trident Navigator Bulk 75,500 9,969 2000 Region $275 for delivery Pakistan
Huitai Bulk 149,155 18,232 1996 Region $237 for delivery options Subcontinent, 800 ts
bunkers ROB
Martha Bulk 148,804 22,396 1994 Region $275 for delivery Pakistan
China Steel Developer Bulk 154,191 23,088 1998 Region $260 'as is' Singapore including 500 ts ROB
RZS Harmony Bulk 171,779 22,362 1999 Region $280 for delivery Pakistan
Cape Century Bulk 172,683 21,104 2001 Region $247 'as is' Singapore with 250 ts ROB
Arnold Schulte Cont 41,000 13,900 2002 Region $278 'as is' Singapore with unknown bunkers
MOL Advantage Cont 66,332 27,750 2001 Region $252 'as is' Hong Kong, for green recycling
Zambia Cont 82,171 24,606 1998 Region $290 for delivery Bangladesh with unknown bunkers
Kampos Tank 41,465 8,094 1991 Region $240 'as is' Singapore destined for Pakistan

BERGEN HONG KONG HOUSTON
5th Floor, Kalfarveien 76, Bergen, Unit 1502, 15/F Chevalier 4900 Woodway Drive, Suite 830,
5022 Commercial Centre, 8 Wang Hoi Houston, Texas, 77056
T: +47 55 540 500 Road, Kowloon Bay, Kowloon T: +1 713 652 2700
T: +852 2521 1141
JAKARTA LONDON LONG ISLAND

Menara Anugrah, Kantor Taman Lloyds Chambers, 1 Portsoken 900 Merchants Concourse, Suite
E3.3, 21st Floor, Jl. DR Ide Anak Street, London, E1 8PH 302, Westbury, Long Island, NY
Agung Gde Agung Lot 8.6-8.7, T: +44 20 7977 7400 11590
Jakarta, 12950 T: +1 631 724 6100
T: +62 21 5794 2330
MIAMI MUMBAI NEW YORK

1700 E. Las Olas Blvd. 203, Fort A-307,215 Atrim, Kanakia Spaces, 46 Southfield Avenue, Three
Lauderdale, FL 33301 Next to Marriot Courtyard, Andheri Stamford Landing, Suite 200,
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400 069 T: +1 203 356 2000
T: +91 22 6113 1000
OSLO SHANGHAI SINGAPORE

Drammensveien130B, Oslo, N-0277 Room 703, Holiday Inn Pudong 50 Raffles Place, #14-01/02
T: +47 67 518 800 Shanghai, 899 Dong Fang Road, Singapore Land Tower, Singapore,
Pudong, Shanghai, 200122 048623
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SYDNEY TOKYO VANCOUVER

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MONTHLY

DRY BULK Baltic Exchange Dry Index

Crude Tanker Spot Earnings

FLEET DEVELOPMENTS FLEET DEVELOPMENTS

Registered : in England number 1971247

Bulk Carrier Fleet, as at end March 2016

Combined Carrier Fleet, as at end March 2016

Tanker Fleet, including Chemical Tankers, as at end March 2016

Container Ships on Order, as at end February 2016

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 3

STEEL PRICES JUMP Baltic Exchange Dry Index

T he sudden improvement in the Capesize

on 17 March to $7,076/day. This reflected a 9,000

year-to-date high, albeit in a less dramatic

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 4

climbed to a seven-month high of $7,450/day, Average of the Timecharter Routes $/day

since 2013. That said, March exports to all 20

yet to exit the fleet. This ensured a net decline

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 5

JAPAN’S LONG-TERM STEAM COAL Japan’s Steam Coal/Anthracite Imports Mt

the country during the previous year and,

following public opinion and promoting non-fossil fuel

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 6

Seaborne Coal Trade

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 7

Major Steel Exporters ‘000 tonnes

A fter a strong 2015 in which growth in the global

will be difficult for world steel trade volumes to improve

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 8

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 9

Chinese Corn Stocks Mt

I n late March, China’s State Administration of Grain 100

totalled 81.7 Mt in 2015 and are dominated by long

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 10

World Grain Trade

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 11

Ship Demolition Sales by Year (Mdwt)

This constituted a rise in tonnage terms of 2.4mdwt 35

(+18.6%) from 1q15. Furthermore, if sustained to the 30

end of the year (which is unlikely given the influence 25

of the monsoons on activity in the Indian sub- 20

sales of these vessels are on course to total only 64

term, even if present firm freight markets ease.

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 12

WORLD GDP GROWTH “TOO SLOW FOR GDP Growth %

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 13

RUSSIA CONSIDERS ITS OPTIONS: Russian Oil Production Monthly M b/d

A s Russia heads into an April meeting in Qatar

improving its energy ties with India, with Rosneft set to

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 14

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 15

CLEAN TANKER MARKETS UNDER VLCC Spot Rates $’000/day

T anker markets have again demonstrated their

tic tonnage supply has remained elevated on i) supply

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 16

West to Asia naphtha arbitrage that reduced the num-

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 17

year at a firm $15,600/$16,500/$17,500/day.

SSY Consultancy & Research Ltd April 2016 | 18