0.00001 1 1.

0E-02
0.00000001 1200

0.001 1
1.0E-03
0.00000001 120000

Probability of more than N Fatalities

1.0E-04

1.0E-05

1.0E-06

1.0E-07
Broadly
R
1.0E-08
1
 1.0E-02

1.0E-03
Unacceptable
Risk
Probability of more than N Fatalities

1.0E-04

1.0E-05

ALARP
1.0E-06

1.0E-07
Broadly Acceptable
Risk
1.0E-08
1 10 100 1000 10000

Number of Fatalities N
able

10000
 Failure Modes Failure Mechanisms

Inadequate installed 1
discharge capacity 2
Overtopping

Inadequate available 3
discharge capacity 4
5
Inadequate freeboard
6

Safeguards fail to 7
provide timely
detection and correction 8

Stability under applied 9

loads
Lack of Strength

10
11
Watertightness
12

13
Durability/cracking
14
 Reservoir Environment

Infrastructure & Plans

Hydraulic struct.
Meteorological

Water Barrier
Failure Mechanisms

Mech/elec
Seismic
A B C D E F G
Inflow > outflow capacity + Buffer
Inadequate resevoir operation
Random functional failure on demand
Discharge capability failure on demand
Excessive elevation due to lanslide or U/S dam
Wind-wave or seiche dissipation inadequate
Operation, maintenance and surveillance fail to
detect/prevent hydraulic inadequacy
Surveillance activities fail to detect poor dam
performance in time
Mass movement (external stability: -displacement,
tilting, seismic resistance)
Loss of support (foundation or abutments failure)
Seepage around interface (abutments, foundation, water
stop)
Through dam/foundation seepage control failure (filters,
drains, pumps)
Structural weakening (internal erosion, AAR, crushing,
gradual strength loss)
Instantaneous change of state (static liquefaction,
hydraulic fracture, seismic cracking)