Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir

CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)

(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

Six new members being added into BRICS.

How do you see the geo-economics and poli cal
implica ons of the expansion? What if Pakistan
made into BRICS?
Introduction:
The expanded BRICS bloc now commands over 40% of the
global oil supply, influencing energy markets significantly.
Amid escalating Sino-US rivalry and shifting dynamics in the
Middle East, the geopolitical implications of this expansion are
profound. This discussion explores the multifaceted aspects of
BRICS, delving into its economic ambitions, energy
cooperation, and the complex geo-economics manoeuvres of
both existing and aspiring members. Notably, Pakistan's bid to
join BRICS adds an intriguing layer, highlighting the group's
growing influence and intermingling dynamics it navigates.

Geo-Poli cal Implica ons of BRICS Expansion

1- A Message to the West:

The inclusion of new countries in the BRICS; Argentina,

Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Egypt, serves as a
nuanced geopolitical message to the Western world. This
move is particularly significant in contemporary politics,
reflecting a strategic realignment.
 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

2- Gulf Prospects and Global Geopoli cs

a. South Africa's ambassador to BRICS envisions a

"tectonic change" in the global geopolitical landscape.
b. Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the
UAE, see BRICS as a means to navigate a multipolar
international system and reduce dependence on the
U.S. dollar.
c. The expansion of BRICS reflects ambitions for more
autonomous foreign policies and alternative
partnerships, signalling a move away from Western
influence.
3- Saudi Arabia’s Ingress in BRICS
a. The recent expansion of BRICS aligns with Sino-US
rivalry and shifting dynamics between the KSA and the
U.S.
b. Saudi Arabia's inclusion would increase the bloc's
global oil supply share to 42%, giving the kingdom
more leverage against potential Western sanctions
on oil producers.
c. Saudi Arabia's recent refusal to sell oil to countries
imposing a price cap illustrates the potential impact of
its BRICS membership on undermining Western
sanctions.
 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

4- Iran’s BRICS membership:

a. Iran seeks BRICS membership as a strategic way to
navigate and mitigate the impact of international
sanctions, particularly those from the US.
b. Joining BRICS offers Iran an institutional framework to
expand international trade and counter US-imposed
economic isolation, aligning with China and Russia.

5- Egypt’s BRICS Membership:

a. Egypt's BRICS membership aims to boost non-dollar

trade within the bloc and explore funding
opportunities from the BRICS Development Bank.
b. Joining BRICS reflects Egypt's interest in challenging
Western geopolitical and geo-economic dominance,
requiring a delicate balancing act in its foreign policies
toward the US, Europe, China, and Russia.
6- Ethiopia’s Inclusion:
a. Ethiopia, one of the world's fastest-growing
economies, experiences strained relations with the
US post-the Tigray civil war, leading to the
suspension of trade privileges and aid.
b. Joining BRICS becomes a strategic move for
Ethiopia, aligning with a new geopolitical
framework.
 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

7- The BRICS Challenge to the West is Mostly Hype

The expansion of BRICS, while generating excitement about
challenging the Western-dominated order, reveals
underwhelming fundamentals upon closer examination.

 BRICS's viability hinges on China's sustained economic

growth.
 Four of the six new BRICS members face financial ruin
and political instability, raising doubts about the
coalition's credibility.
 BRICS, while not expected to rebalance the global order,
reflects frustration with Western commitments in the
Middle East.
8- What Is Driving Tunisia’s Interest in BRICS?
 Tunisia's interest in BRICS goes beyond economic
hardships, aiming to exert pressure on the West.
 Leveraging its strategic position on migration routes to
Europe, Tunisia has successfully secured a deal with the
EU, receiving financial assistance.
 Discussions of joining BRICS emerged after President Kais
Saied rejected a $1.9 billion IMF bailout.
 Recent statements by the Tunisian Minister of Economy
and Planning express skepticism about joining BRICS,
citing economic size and limited trade relations.

9- Will Globaliza on endure?

 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

Achieving complete deglobalization is challenging due to

extensive trade, financial transactions, information flow, and
human movement, highlighting deep economic
interdependence. The future global economy may maintain
certain connections while emphasizing a more individual
country-focused approach.

10- Impacts of BRICS on Interna onal Order:

Seen by Western powers as a counterforce to the established
global order, BRICS symbolizes a call for much-needed reform
in the outdated international system, offering a platform for
the Global South's aspirations, often overlooked in Western-
centric discussions. It aims to reshape the global order,
particularly in economic spheres, specifically to reduce
reliance on the dollar.

Geo-Economic Implications:

1- De-dollarization Dynamics:
Within the BRICS, discussions on using their own currencies in
trade underscore a collective desire to reduce reliance on the
US dollar. This signals a significant geo-economic shift, with
China's currency potentially emerging as a viable alternative
to the entrenched dominance of the dollar.
2- BRICS as a Development Financing Provider:
 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

BRICS emerges as a transformative force in global economic

dynamics by providing development financing through
institutions like the New Development Bank and the
Contingency Reserve Agreement. This challenges the
monopoly of traditional entities like the World Bank and IMF,
reshaping the global economic order and altering power
structures associated with development financing.

3- Iran's Strategic Pivot:

Iran is already strategically engaged in a substantial economic
deal worth $400bn with BRICS member China. It mitigates
economic losses incurred due to stringent US sanctions and
positions the nation within a framework of alternative global
alliances.
4- BRICS impacting Global Energy Security:
 The expanded BRICS, with six new members, will control
over 40% of global oil supply and 50% of gas reserves.
 The bloc will also control 72% of the world's rare earth
minerals, strengthening its influence over global energy
supply chains.
 Coordinated approaches to mineral exports, fossil fuel
management, and transitioning to renewable energy
are crucial for a secure and sustainable global energy
landscape under the BRICS.
 Argentina's inclusion strengthens BRICS' lithium supply,
making it a major producer alongside China and Brazil,
emphasizing increased investments in critical minerals.
 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

 Saudi Arabia's entry involves substantial investments in

lithium and critical minerals in Brazil, fostering energy
security and supporting its electric vehicle ambitions.

5- BRICS impacting Critical mineral investments and trade

flows:
 An enlarged BRICS would possess a substantial share of
rare earths, manganese, graphite, nickel, and copper,
influencing the critical mineral landscape.
 The group's expansion might also drive investments into
regions facing economic sanctions, like Iran, enabling
resource flow.

6- BRICS Pay? A First A empt at the Reconfigura on of

Payment Systems
 There is no consensus on launching a common reserve
currency, ‘R5’ (Brazilian real, Russian ruble, Indian rupee,
Chinese renminbi, and South African rand).
 Diverging member interests make the creation of a
currency union unlikely.
 Initiatives like BRICS Pay, a digital payments platform,
seem less impactful than a common currency.
 KSA and the UAE joining BRICS may lead to incremental
diversification in payment options, including more oil
transactions in Chinese yuan.
 The UAE's involvement in CBDC interoperability projects
signals an increasing role in the international financial
system.
 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

 The finalized Project Aber enhances alternative payment

system maneuverability for the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

COMPARISON BETWEEN SCO AND BRICS

SCO BRICE
Security-coopera on New world-order, Overcome
organiza on for Asian region US Hegemony
36% GDP contribu on 25% GDP Contribu on
No such ini a ves Ini a ves of NDB, alterna ve
currency

What if Pakistan is made part of BRICS?

 In Nov 2023, Pakistan confirmed its application for BRICS

membership, emphasizing its potential role in
international cooperation and inclusive multilateralism.
 Pakistan's bid for BRICS membership faces inquiry,
particularly concerning India's response and its
engagement with key supporters Russia and China.
 Joining BRICS would grant Pakistan access to new
markets, provide economic opportunities, and align with
the "Look Africa" policy.
 The New Development Bank within BRICS could serve as
a viable alternative for Pakistan, offering options beyond
the traditional channels of the IMF and World Bank.
 BRICS membership presents Pakistan with the chance to
exert geopolitical influence among emerging global
economies, fostering improvements in diplomatic and
 Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)

economic relations while reducing economic

dependency on other nations.
 Participation in BRICS would open avenues for energy
cooperation, particularly in renewable energy and the
broader energy sector.
 Security cooperation is another potential benefit for
Pakistan through BRICS, which offers collaborative efforts
on security matters.
 Membership in the BRICS could facilitate an
improvement in relations with India, addressing a
pressing need. It may also create opportunities to
pressure India for diplomatic talks and resolutions to
existing conflicts.

Conclusion:
In conclusion, the expansion of BRICS, marked by the inclusion
of major geopolitical players and energy giants, signifies a
shifting global order. While the alliance's economic ambitions
are evident, internal disparities among member states and
their varied geopolitical interests pose challenges to cohesive
action. The situation involving Pakistan's endeavor to become
part of BRICS serves as a prime example of the nuanced
diplomatic dynamics at play within the alliance, especially
amidst regional rivalries. As BRICS continues to shape global
economic narratives and navigate geopolitical complexities,
its role in fostering inclusive multilateralism and challenging
traditional power structures remains a compelling force on the
world stage.
Current & Pak Affairs with Tahir
CSS | PMS (2024 & 2025)
(CSSPMS-MENTOR)