4.3.1.1.

Lesson - Introduction to
Probability
UNIVERSITY OF ST. LA SALLE
College of Business and Accountancy

SAPP – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS WITH SOFTWARE APPLICATION

Second Semester, AY 2023 – 2024

INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY

Probability terms in our dialect:

“probable”, “probably”, “basi”

“unlikely”, “likely”, “most likely”, “laban-laban”, “daw matabo”, “daw indi matabo”
“certain, “uncertain”, “piho gid”, “indi gid pwede matabo”

Take note that:

These terms qualitatively show that the degree of each category is different for every
individual.
Therefore, there is a need to establish a scale of measurement of uncertainty that has
the same meaning for all.

Examples of Probability Statements

a weather forecaster may predict that there is an 80% chance of rain tomorrow.

a health news reporter may state that a smoker has a much greater chance of getting cancer
than a nonsmoker does.

a college student may ask an instructor about the chances of passing a course or getting a 1.0
if he or she did not do well on the midterm examination.
 Definition of Terminologies
Experiment ( ) - any activity that generates data. It has three components:

(a) action; (b) instrument; (c) number of trials or repetitions.

Outcome (sample point) - each possible distinct result of an experiment.

Sample Space - set of all possible outcomes of an experiment

Event - a subset of the sample space; a collection of outcomes satisfying a

condition under which it will happen; designated by uppercase letters except S

(S should only be used to represent the sample space of a given experiment).

Types of Events
Simple Event - an event which has only one possible outcome.

Compound Event - an event which has more than one possible outcome.

Impossible event ( ) - an event which will never happen; an event which has

no possible outcome.

Sure Event (S) - an event that will really happen; an event which contains all

the elements of the sample space.

 : Roll a six-sided die once

Sample Size

Let A be the event of getting an even number. What is/are the outcomes/s of A?

Let B be the event of getting a multiple of 5. What is/are the outcome/s of B?

Let C be the event of getting a number greater than 6.

Let D be the event of getting at least a 1.

If the die was actually rolled then which of the given events happened if

1. a 4 came up?

Answer

1. a 1 came up?

Answer
 measures the likelihood that an event will occur

the basis of inferential statistics - make decisions under conditions of uncertainty

provides a means for measuring the uncertainty of decisions and inferences based on
data from samples and experiments

Expressing Probability:

smallest value that a probability statement can have is 0 (indicating the event is impossible)

largest value it can have is 1 (indicating the event is certain to occur)

Definition. The probability of an event, say A, denoted as P(A) (read as "Probability of A"), is the
sum of the weights of all outcomes in A.

We can then say,

In a given experiment, an event must either occur or not occur.

Let be the nonoccurrence of event A, i.e., event A does not occur, then we have

, then

Here, denotes the complement of A (can be read as "A complement")

- End of Module 4 -
REFERENCES
Main Resources:

[1] Anderson, D. R. (2016). Modern business statistics with Microsoft office excel. USA: Cengage
Learning.

[2] Anderson, D. A. (2018). Statistics for business and economics. Australia: Cengage Learning.

[3] Antivola, H. M. (2015). Business statistics. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Books Atbp.

[4] Bowerman, B. L. (2015). Essentials of business statistics. New York: McGraw-Hill.

[5] De Guzman, D. (2017). Statistics & Probability. Quezon City: C & E Publishing, Inc.

[6] Lind, D. A. (2015). Statistical techniques in business & economics. Boston: McGraw-Hill.

[7] Sirug, W. S. (2015). Introduction to business statistics; a comprehensive approach. Manila:

Philippines Mindshapers Co., Inc.

[8] Waller, D. L. (2017). Statistics for business. New York: Routledge.