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Trimegah CF INKP 20231115 - A hiccup in 3Q
Trimegah CF INKP 20231115 - A hiccup in 3Q
Buy
Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Previous TP
(maintain)
Target Price IDR18,000 (+112% ups.)
IDR18,300
A hiccup in 3Q Current Price IDR8,475
Another reason why INKP’s earnings in 3Q23 dropped significantly was due to pulp
price dropping similar to their cash cost level. Huge part of INKP’s cash cost came
from woodchips (raw material for pulp), which was more influenced by fuel price
rather than benchmark pulp prices (company notes that transportation accounts
for ~40% of wood price). We expect earnings to recover in 4Q23F considering pulp
price rose by 11% QTD (fig. 4) and to recover significantly in 2024F when pulp Willinoy Sitorus
price stabilizes >$600/t ($90mn in 4Q23F and $502mn in 2024F). willinoy.sitorus@trimegah.com
021 - 2924 9107
We expect hardwood price to continue hovering around ~$600/t
Alpinus Dewangga
We maintain our view that the hardwood pulp price can be maintained >$600/t as alpinus.raditya@trimegah.com
this is the cash cost level of Chinese pulp producers. We’d like to highlight that any 021 – 2924 6322
price increase to ~$700 may incentivize Chinese pulp producers to
resume/increase production, potentially causing a short-term correction in the
prices and vice versa. Note that YTD pulp demand was mainly driven by China (fig Stock Data & Indices
7). Bloomberg Code INKP.IJ
JCI Member IDXBASIC
Earnings revision MSCI Indonesia Yes
We revised our 2023F-25F hardwood pulp price assumption by 3%/2%/0% to JII No
$600/610/620 per ton. Despite increasing our pulp price assumption, we lower our LQ45 Yes
profit target by -22%/-7%/0% to $411/502/404mn to account for the 1–2-month Kompas 100 Yes
ASP lag. It's important to note that the YoY drop in 2025F is attributed to interest
expenses coming into play after the new Karawang factory starts. Key Data
Issued Shares (mn) 5,471
Free Float (%) 42.1%
Maintain buy rating with TP of Rp18,000
Mkt. Cap (IDRbn) 46,366
We maintain our buy rating with a TP of IDR18,000/sh (+112% upside). Our DCF-
Mkt. Cap (USDmn) 2,992
based TP assumes a 12% WACC with LT growth of 1.4%. Our TP implies a 2024F 11,625/6,775
52 Wk-range
P/E ratio of 12.7, which is still at a -12% discount compared to peers. Note that
this is without earnings contribution from the new factory, which we expect to
operate at full capacity by 2027F/28. Our TP implies a 2027F P/E of 5.8x. INKP is
currently trading at an undemanding 5.96x 24F P/E, a -58% discount compared to Performance (%)
global peers. Key risk: volatility in pulp prices and later-than-expected new factory YTD 1m 3m 12m
commencement. Absolute -2.9 -19.5 -15.9 -16.7
Relative to
JCI -0.9 -16.3 -13.2 -11.4
Company Data
Year end Dec 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Revenue (USD mn) 3,517 4,003 3,520 3,782 4,619
EBITDA (USD mn) 1,129 1,391 1,013 1,134 1,337
Core Profit (USD mn) 494 737 402 502 403
EV/ EBITDA (x) 5.0 3.6 5.4 6.1 5.3
Core EPS (IDR) 1,322 2,001 1,140 1,421 1,142
Core P/E (x) 6.41 4.24 7.43 5.96 7.42
Core EPS growth (%) 92.4 51.3 -43.0 24.6 -19.6
P/ BV (x) 0.66 0.53 0.50 0.46 0.44
ROE (%) 11.0 15.3 6.8 7.7 5.9
Div. Yield (%) 0.58 0.59 0.62 0.69 0.84
Year end Dec (USD mn) 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Revenue 3,517 4,003 3,520 3,782 4,619
Gross Profit 1,228 1,590 1,112 1,266 1,381 Company Background
Operating Profit 858 1,138 758 879 938
EBITDA 1,129 1,391 1,013 1,134 1,337 PT Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk is
Net Interest expense/(Exp) -240 -238 -251 -247 -401 engaged in manufacturing of
Gain/(loss) Forex 12 67 -29 0 0 paper, pulp, and packaging paper.
Total other Income (Expense) 42 148 11 0 0 INKP is part of APP (Asia Pulp and
Pre-tax Profit 661 1,047 517 632 537 Paper), a holding owned by
Income Tax Expense -134 -190 -107 -130 -134 Sinarmas family
Net profit 526 857 411 502 403
Core profit 494 737 402 502 403
Dividend payout ratio 6.3 3.5 2.2 5.0 5.0
Major Shareholders
Cash Flow
Year end Dec (Rp bn) 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Net Profit 526 857 411 502 403
Depr / Amort 271 253 255 255 399
Chg in Working Cap -99 -528 191 -137 57
Others -19 -177 -29 -86 0
CF's from oprs 679 406 828 533 859
Capex -408 -173 -1,225 -1,945 -935
Others 8 28 0 0 0
CF's from investing -400 -146 -1,225 -1,945 -935 Opportunity Threat
Net change in debt -92 -212 720 720 720 Capacity Significant drop
Others 0 147 -19 -21 -25 expansion in pulp price
CF's from financing -92 -65 701 699 695
Net cash flow 187 195 305 -713 619
Cash at BoY 871 1,060 1,265 1,570 857
Cash at EoY 1,060 1,265 1,570 857 1,476
Free Cashflow 271 233 -397 -1,412 -76
Ratio Analysis
Year end Dec 2021 2022 2023F 2024F 2025F
Profitability (%)
Gross Margin 34.9 39.7 31.6 33.5 29.9
Opr Margin 24.4 28.4 21.5 23.2 20.3
EBITDA Margin 32.1 34.8 28.8 30.0 29.0
Net Margin 14.0 18.4 11.4 13.3 8.7
ROAE 11.7 16.5 7.1 8.0 6.0
ROAA 6.0 9.2 4.0 4.4 3.2
Stability (x)
Current ratio 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.7
Net Debt to Equity 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6
Net Debt to EBITDA 2.2 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.0
Interest Coverage 3.6 4.6 2.8 3.3 2.3
Efficiency (days)
A/P collection 34 34 34 34 34
A/R payment 140 147 180 180 180
Inv. turnover 64 70 65 65 65
Snapshot
• 3Q23 net profit fell sharply to $52mn (-62% QoQ, -79% YoY). This is mainly driven by lower revenue at $756mn (-14%
QoQ, -28% YoY). This brings 9M23 net profit to $321mn (-50% YoY), accounting 62%/50% of ours and consensus FY23
estimates respectively.
• Operational volume: Total (pulp, paper, packaging) 9M23 sales volume increased +4-5% YoY, production increased +2-4%
YoY. 3Q23 sales volume increased +1% QoQ. Company emphasizes there is no operational hiccup during the quarter.
• 3Q pulp revenue down -33% QoQ, and down -44% YoY, while both paper and packaging, only down -4% QoQ respectively.
Note that more than 50% of its pulp are sold to export markets (the remaining is for internal use for its paper segment mostly).
• The revenue fell sharply despite hardwood pulp price registering a positive uptrend during the 3Q23. This was on the back
of a 1–2-month ASP lag. (refer to fig. 4)
• There is a large capex jump in 3Q amounting to $261mn. If rightly so, we assume this is for its packaging expansion project
in Karawang.
1,100
1,010
1,000
900
865
800
754
$/t
696
700
648 640
600 629
552
500
475
400
Nov-22
Nov-20
Apr-21
Jun-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Jun-22
Apr-23
Jun-23
Aug-20
Feb-21
Mar-21
Jul-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jul-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jul-23
Aug-21
Aug-23
Sep-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
May-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
May-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Oct-22
Dec-22
Jan-23
May-23
Sep-23
Oct-23
Hardwood Softwood Hardwood avg ('09-'19)
Figure 3. Pulp price assuming no lag Figure 4. Pulp price with 2-month lag
Figure 5. China pulp and paper import volume is improving Figure 6. China pulp and paper export volume is growing
compared to last year steadily in the past months
China pulp and paper export volume China pulp and paper export volume
450 135
430
125
410
390
115
370
350 105
330
95
310
290
85
270
250 75
ASP (USD/ton)
Pulp 570 580 589 551 570 589 3% 2% 0%
Paper 912 869 884 827 855 884 10% 2% 0%
Packaging and other 542 637 630 606 627 630 -11% 2% 0%
Revenue breakdown
Pulp 1,092 1,226 1,157 1,166 1,206 1,157 -6% 2% 0%
Paper 1,288 1,214 1,234 1,154 1,194 1,234 12% 2% 0%
Packaging and other 1,140 1,342 1,327 1,276 1,320 1,327 -11% 2% 0%
Karawang factory 0 0 901 0 0 901 NA NA 0%
USD/IDR 15,500
Equity value (IDR bn) 98,576
#of shares 5,471
Rounded 18,000
Pulp&Paper
SUZANO SA SUZB3 BZ EQUITY 15,023 6.53 14.48 1.82 1.61 7.27 7.22 30.69 12.73
KLABIN SA - UNIT KLBN11 BZ EQUITY 5,528 10.49 11.99 2.42 2.53 7.94 7.71 26.94 16.59
EMPRESAS COPEC SA COPEC CI Equity 9,137 16.54 12.25 0.72 0.69 8.14 7.35 5.85 7.17
NINE DRAGONS PAPER HOLDINGS 2689 HK Equity 2,695 #N/A N/A 9.44 0.44 0.42 18.08 8.76 -4.27 4.72
Average 8,096 11.19 12.04 1.35 1.31 10.36 7.76 14.80 10.30
Packaging
US
AVERY DENNISON CORP AVY US EQUITY 14,503 22.92 19.13 6.84 5.86 14.14 12.46 30.62 32.56
GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO GPK US EQUITY 6,626 7.60 7.90 2.47 2.05 6.40 6.49 36.13 25.08
WESTROCK CO WRK US EQUITY 9,802 12.87 14.56 0.93 0.89 6.36 6.48 7.05 6.46
INTERNATIONAL PAPER CO IP US EQUITY 11,450 15.73 16.69 1.35 1.38 7.31 7.30 8.66 7.95
AMCOR PLC AMCR US EQUITY 13,109 12.49 13.18 3.27 3.19 10.08 10.12 26.50 24.22
Average 11,098 14.32 14.29 2.97 2.67 8.86 8.57 21.79 19.25
Asia pacific
NIPPON PAPER INDUSTRIES CO L 3863 JT Equity 966 #N/A N/A 9.24 0.38 0.36 22.41 10.68 -12.03 3.90
AMCOR PLC-CDI AMC AU Equity 12,977 12.37 13.05 3.23 3.16 10.02 10.05 26.50 24.22
SCG PACKAGING PCL SCGP TB Equity 4,345 27.99 23.09 1.56 1.50 11.46 10.19 5.51 6.35
Average 6,096 20.18 15.13 1.72 1.67 14.63 10.31 6.66 11.49
Europe
SMURFIT KAPPA GROUP PLC SKG LN Equity 9,004 9.33 9.82 1.48 1.36 5.69 5.78 16.52 14.74
STORA ENSO OYJ-R SHS STERV FH EQUITY 10,082 148.94 18.08 0.80 0.79 13.30 8.76 0.26 4.39
SIG GROUP AG SIGN SW EQUITY 8,743 25.10 22.26 2.62 2.58 13.24 12.25 10.46 11.19
Average 9,276 61.12 16.72 1.63 1.58 10.74 8.93 9.08 10.11
Packaging average 9,237 29.53 15.18 2.27 2.10 10.95 9.14 14.20 14.64
Overall peers average 8,933 25.30 14.34 2.02 1.89 10.79 8.77 14.36 13.48
INKP 3,165 7.43 5.96 0.50 0.46 5.43 6.11 6.85 7.74
Premium (disc) vs Overall average -70.6% -58.4% -75.3% -75.6% -49.7% -30.3% -52.3% -42.6%
Premium (disc) vs pulp and paper's peers -33.6% -50.5% -63.1% -64.8% -47.6% -21.3% -53.7% -24.9%
Premium (disc) vs packaging's peers -74.8% -60.7% -78.0% -78.0% -50.4% -33.2% -51.8% -47.1%
• Operational volume: Total (pulp, paper, packaging) 9M23 sales volume increased +4-5% YoY, production increased +2-
4% YoY. 3Q23 sales volume increased +1% QoQ. The company emphasizes there is no operational hiccup during the
quarter.
• There is a 1–2-month ASP lag. INKP published a PO (pre-order) price, and shipment will follow in 1-2 months using the
PO price. Revenue is only recognized after shipment.
• Industrial paper segment is a combination of 60% brown paper and 40% white paper packaging, which is why industrial
paper segment GPM softens following a lower pulp price.
• Woodchips (raw material for pulp) is more affected by fuel price rather than benchmark pulp prices. Compamy notes that
transportation accounts for ~40% of the wood price.
• 4Q23F result will assume a $553/t pulp price (+11% QoQ) assuming a 2-month ASP lag, which is still lower compared to
2Q23 at $704/t.
• Company is expecting a slight sales uptick in 4Q23 on the back of Chinese New Year restocking.
• All main machinery equipment has been ordered. Machinery will come in multiple parts and will be assembled in the
factory.
• Wood chips will be delivered from Kalimantan to Patimban Port in Subang. The company's internal calculation shows
shipping wood from Kalimantan is cheaper compared to shipping from Sulawesi.
Corporate Access
Nur Marini Corporate Access marini@trimegah.com +62-21 2924 6323
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provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation
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Buy : Share price is expected to exceed more than 10% over the next 12 months
Neutral : Share price is expected to trade within the range of 0%-10% over the next 12 months
Sell : Share price is expected to trade below 0% over the next 12 months
Not Rated : The company is not within Trimegah research coverage
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