FRONTLINE Volume 41 - Number 32 — June 15-28, 2024 ISSN 0970-1710 ~ COVER STORY Jan ki Baat 10/ In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, India voted ‘emphatically for political, social, and economic inclusion, for a more consultative government, for the sanctity of the Constitution, and the guarantees and protections ‘written into it forall citizens. RELATED STORIES 22) Caste returns to centre stage 29/ How women voted ¥ ELECTION 2024 56) Tamil Nadu: Winner takes it all 61/ Karnataka: Winning combination 66/ Andhra Pradesh: Alliance matters 70) Rajasthan: BJP on the back foot 73/ Odisha: Fall of a titan 78/ Kerala: Ending the duopoly Cone mses fCaeaues Sas sane frontline thehindu.com ~ 116 pages ‘Si/ Telangana: shifting sands ‘83/ Jharkhand: Tribal backdash, '86/ Punjab: Paradox in Punjab 88/ Haryana: Resounding ‘comeback ‘92/ North-East: Back in the reckoning 96 / J&K: Pressing the dissent button COLUMNS ‘35/ Saba Naqvi: All that breathes 46/G.N. Devy: Salaam, Indian voters! 64/ Mitali Mukherjee: The road ahead 761 K. Kalyani: The Dalit Bahujan finally roars ‘90/ Vivek Katju: Friends sulle BOOKS 99/ In review v (08/ The Fortnight WHITE SPACE 110/ That sick feeling 06/ Letters 109/0n our bookshelf 112/ Staying in 113/ Stepping out {14 Back Page JUNE, 2024FRONTLINE LEADING Tae DEBATE SNCE a4 er Vishay Managing Eerste st Atsocate Eater Rh Rastoesnan Tenge Paasche eager Ame Sayeed Debt Te Rasher (Che ot rst) "ene iera(Pateal eta DESK Sau Anta. Ramesh Charan “SatindaAcivetam Saba Saba Arusuahktetes Da Carch, ‘ahead hacen GTA Conetng Eder Bids Vessder “ay los Psy Caer awa Pracean oa Viyeagsharae DESIGNERS 8 Sirhassr Riba) Pblichd by Newala atta ar Burg 55 A a Anna Sl, chen 0.00 8 Pty SOT Rab a avon Process Prater FORMERS NERA REZers Taarears Sass a boat TH ator Yasha Ry Response x Sector ones Be PR A) Fer subscription ard delivery queries: Pan inca Tal ree & 3600 1023678 (customercaregthehindu.cein For advertisement: National Sales Head satshmencan@itchindycein Region Deh = Anvesh humar Verma ‘Ssene738819 Bangalore ~Gurunatna Recoy ‘Cseeseaaaen ‘Chennai Sivakumar ‘Goeatsasaeo Ae Surcharge: Colombo Rs. 2000 | Port Bair Rs. 16.00 onTano sane mg5 Panjouphones sco cnndende esa ne one learner chee our sora on Inside ‘Nirupama Subramanian is an independent journalist who has worked at The Hindu and The Indian Express. ‘She writes mainly on foreign policy, national security, and international affairs. In her two stints as a foreign correspondent, in Sri Lanka and in Pakistan, she witnessed first-hand the violent chaos in countries that chose to build nations on the basis of a single religion or ethnicity. She received the Prem Bhatia Award for Excellence in Journalism in 2008 and the Chameli Devi jain Award for Outstanding Woman Journalist in 2009. ‘Smita Gupta was Senior Fellow with ‘The Hindu Centre for Politics and Pal tency Se so wen cei tasodae Baton Te ul, Nero In a journalistic career spanning 38 years, she has covered all major ‘art pares te eae » pais Pelsmean andrea f Magcaeatate mn fashansic wa er ‘Reuters Fellow at Oxford University, ti ohne a ene ape 90 peingencees era yen ead Europe”. She has contributed chapters: in books on the BJP, the politics of Uttar Prades, and artamen What M.G. Radhakrishnan enjoyed the most in his four decades long career in journalism is its diversity. He began his career with a magazine in ‘Mumbai. Subsequently, shifting to ‘mainstream journalism in Malayalam, he joined Mathrubhuemi in Kerala, After a decade, he was back in English ‘magazine journalism as the Kerala correspondent of India Today, where he chronicled the State for 20 years. ‘Then he moved to the visual media, becoming the editor of Asianet News. Retired now, he has been writing on politics, economics, culture, and sports. Dicer Reader ae equi lovely 8 make spprpee crc say emsoves about the vray can avertaar bela respite ary pubhedin Bis magsaneTHGFUBLSHINGPYTLTO, ‘hePubisher Over he mapas coor tl voueh Reuter lay scuteamertor striae borat olte saateort process aelersoncoe I 0 oer ar the Oana bens, Plo ti, ‘eclodEaployes etic agai hema ba a repercla ev ay werer wea) save arcleresrayet le scuromanew emsoaite‘ome pieces, they say, write themselves. This was ane of those. The concerns we have raised over and over in these ‘pages-about untrammelled ower, the signs of full-blown ‘megalomania and narcissism on display, the dangers of hate speech and the cdemonising of certain communities, the risks inherent in seekingan ‘opposition-mukt Bharat-are not light concerns but come from an engagement with history and a recalling of what such indicators have invariably added up to. 1 don’t have to remind Frontline's readers about Umberto Eco's If aspects of Ur-Fascism, of which he said, “itis enough that one of them be present to allow fascism to coagulate around it’, butit ‘would be worth reiterating a few. For instance, the cult of tradition, the rejection ‘of modemity, the idea that disagreement is treason, the obsession with historical ictimhood and muscular retaliation-these “Ake bat few OFthie seifier Fe fists tha contain within them the seeds of great social damage. We have seen them sprout and spread with astonishing speed in the past decade. The results of the just concluded Lok Sabha election are the first indication in 10 years that the country might finally get a shot at weeding out some of these dangerous ideas The answer to how India got here has been oft repeated-the biggest opposition party, the Indian National Congress, willingly oversaw its implosion. Clumsy, top-heavy, and far removed from the srassroots, the party was no match for the uber-wealthy, nimble, technoeratic demagoguery of the BJP. Moreover, the BJP is ideologically driven, which makes ita formidable, committed, and zealous ‘opponent while the Congress partys effete drawing-room politics had no convincing ideology or passionate rebuttal on offer. Inaddition, institutions crumbled, anda shamelessly servile broadcast media shifted en masse from journalism to PR, devotedly relaying the government's press releases and talking points. The so-called. beral media were no less guilty. Take ‘Mod's meditation in Kanyakumari, timed Editor’s Note * just before the final phase of election on June | when his constituency Varanasi went to the polls, ensuring that photographs of his piety were widely published lang after the Model Code of Conduct had kicked in, attactic he deployed in 2019 as well. Everyone raged at the supine ECI, but all it required was for media houses to choose not to publish these photographs, thereby quite rightly denying unethical advantage to one candidate. Such editorial judgment has been missing fora while now, subsumed by fear of reprisal or a mindless understanding of media “neutrality” or simply a tragic decline in the profession's adversarial role, GAINST SUCH FoRMMDABLE odds, the 232 seats totted up by the parties who allied under the “opposition INDIA bloc is cause for celebration, not so much as an electoral victory but for what these 232 seats can engure when Parliament.zeconvenes wit “Ati Seats on the-Tredstiry benches. Phe!’ previous tenure saw two MPS who critiqued the Prime Minister banned from Parliament on flimsy grounds. it saw ugly hate speech by ruling party MPs, a toadying Speaker who spectacularly forsook his duty, and important Bills passed with no discussion or by brute ‘majority. This can change when governments have to take on board many voices. Itmight be messy, but as large, ‘tumultuous, and diverse as India is, it needs a government that understands chaos theory. ‘These results were also a sharp rebuke by the common people to a party that has overwhelmingly used religion to airbrush away real issues. and they handed the BJP a shock defeat in Faizabad, home to yodhya’s Ram temple. Most importantly, this election was a ‘message about how Narendra Modi should rule: as an elected Prime Minister, without emperor's robes or a divine halo. we june 2s, 2024° Letters Manipur ETHNIC dichotomy compounded with governmen- tal partisanship towards the Mette majonty was the fuse point rat engulfed Manipurin voience in May 2023 (Cover Story, June 14). The Cente did nothing to heal the wounds ofthe Kuki community Such a callous atitude is beyond comprehension, The less than halt-hearted measures of the Centre cleary emboldened Chief Minister Bren Singh to teat the ranted as the hunters. ‘Ayyatseri Raveendranath rans Kenia PRIME Miriste Ralehais Moki Faips tielesSy36, rmalters of religion and faith in order to polatise vo- ters but has maintained a stony silence on Manipur where hundreds have been killed and thousands displaced. Biren Singh has proved that he is Chief Minister orly for the Meitei, not the Kuki. Itis the responsibilty of the double-engine sarkat to reat the Meitel and Kuki groups equally, but both goveiriments have shitked their collective responsi- bilty and seta terrible precedent. This does not au- dur well for either the Chief Minister of Manipur or the Prime Minister of he worlg's largest democracy. MY. Sharitt Cherm THE Cover Story poignarty captures the situation in sirife-iorn Manipur a year an. Although an at- mosphete of eetie peace prevails at oresent spo- radic incidents that are reported from the State threaten to reignite the flames of violence and bloodshed Itis appaliing and matter of utmost concem that the Central government continues to ook the other way. The fact that the Bloodshed continued despite Union Home Minister Amit Shas visit to Manipur ard bis talks with all the stakeholders isa clear indi- cator of the breakciown of the constitutional ma- chinery in the State, making ita ft ease for imposi- tion of Presidents Rule Nore eters, wheter by surloce mao: emai, musteary thefull posta ‘ecres3 and the fl ame, orthe name ‘wie. The continued unrest inthe north-eastern State is a typical exemple of how a situation can get out of hand i sensitive social issues are not handled with ‘maturity and ira time-bound manner by the powers that be, B Suresh Kumar Coimbatore, Tal Neck Democracy at stake THE article Rise ofthe autocrats” (Cover Story, May 31) Fighlighted now democracy has been severely tirdetmined by 2 argely dormant Election Commis- sion As foreseen by BR. Ambedkar, the idea of bhakti, deeply rooted in Incian culture, has been weaperised in election campaigns, with the Prime Minister going so fr a8 to project rimsel as a c- vine figure. The vas of consecration that he per formed atthe inauguration ofthe Ram Mandir were a tactic to foster hero worship and pave the way for autocratisator. The Election Commission's deafening silence on the mary violations of the Model Code of Cor- dluct threaten the very idea of free and fair elec- tions, The only nope is that oizens will he more ale nd tare aid Wolé Wut those wha practise civisive polities. Swalahuddeen Pl. Belae, Kamatala OBC politics ITisevidert thatthe BIP oked up the issue of OBC politics only with the motive of pinning down the Congress, which promised Musims reservation uring the election campaion (Failing the OBC test’, May 31), Modis no-holds-barrad attack on the Congress manifesto in an election aly at Banswara and his cleim thatthe Congress would lake away people's wealth only to redistribute it among Mus- lims, set off a stormy debate. Even as the Congress accused the BIP of polarising the elector, the fact remaies thatthe Congiess itself has been openiyin- ulging in appeasement politics for the sake of Musi votes, It seems that the GIP isin panic mode after its narrative of “2b ki boor 400 poor” backfired, Per- haps. Modiis not fuly confident of rocking the Con- ress cradle with his new-found love for the OBC Community. History shows us that misplaced prion- ties and erroneous assertions by the BJP may not bbe encugh to take italong the path of victory by any stetch of imagination. KR Srinivasan Secunderabad, TeargoraTHEFORTNIGHT 9 The Fortnight r hamuctelged et > cena Gow unde . s mien ove te Chern ama used 34 suyon ned Ren wes : | > Bloody massacre Boeing Statiner, with vetaran NASA astronauts number ofchargesaNew | 2waided the Pada Gory Wirere and Sanita | YorcAuytoundDoraid Temp | \iufushenin 2016 for his Around #26 Palestinians were killed and more than 400 wounded in Nuseirat,aPalestinian Wetec icearaico | guitycthaschermetniiepaiy | ‘Seveueniesee tener 3mpin the middle of heGaza Stripon June 8, saic Gaza's Health Ministry, when the Israel BUG Caschbiancs || sWibencsie7016 wectee jownolaw. The andhea DefenselForces launched whats reporiedly the largest rescue operation carried cutby tsince the < Slat! oft Israel-Hamas war. The operetion was launched to rescue four Israelihostages. {esidents\and paramedics said that Israeli dronesand warplanes fred through the nightat horres. Atas V rocket from Florida | through. tothe Intemational Space| = adut fim n money paymert to | Pradesh government making himthe | nnounced State mourning Station. This launch was | fst former US Presidant to be for two days. ished tnetucaterp! wth | convicted offeoryctimes The | tne Ramo} Fim chy, me astronauts since eary May, | Sentencing has been setfor July | worid's largest flm studio an the mission marked 11 just cays betore the ‘complex, on the outskirts of the fra cened fight or | Repubican Natonai Conventions | Hyeabod to pone the Starliner spacecratt expected to formally make him infrastructure ane srees, the the party's nominee. for fim production. Vv > Yes we Cannes! “We've all made it, with our ) heroineswho2pe, gave us our homeland.” Nobel Piizeswinning ‘clmate scienits Claucla Sheinbaum (61) of the lotist Morena party secured alandsice VetSry Payal Kapadia (third trom|eft] became the first Inian eee eee filmmakertowin the Grand Prix award forherfirm Al We pone ete Imagine as Light at the 77th Cannes Fim Festiva. The fim is pa oat es aoe led by actors Kani Kusrut, Divya Prabha, and Chhaya the outgoing Kadam. savesnaocunvare President and her mentor, } ‘Andrés Manuel | Lope Obed, ¥ G7 ‘onOciober Sheinbaum is students have scored a pettect 720 out of 720 in the National thefist Eigibity cum Entrance Test (NET) 2024 for admission ito ‘woman to medical coleges. Medical aspirants and theit parents have wina alleged paper leak and widespread irecuiates inthe ‘general conduct ofthe test as they clamed that 6 to 7of the 67 ‘lection PRS scents wore termine same conte in Haryana anc inNonh thal there were cases of a mismaich between marks Aretica anc ranks. As a section of candicates has moved the Supreme Court demanding a re-examination, poitical ‘opposition to the test has aso been revived FRONTLINE, JUNE, 2024The boast by BJP leaders that 400 paar would enable a third-term Modi government to modify the Constitution became the party's biggest self goal. BJP Number of votes: In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, India voted emphatically for political, social, and ieee at . poe rar economic inclusion, for a more consultative government, for the sanctity of the ae 5 7 36.56 a Constitution, and the quarantees and protections written into it for all citizens. 4 Congress Teruel ed Ave cry 13,6759,064 NDA " RESULTS2024 293 Veer cgeais 21199 res utnt eet as decade-long effort to turn ReMken tien aeneentccs of ridicule, he kept at it, and ECP Un Ue mL "543. Marendra Modi anc Rahul Gandhi i SxS RMR ENEMA END AEN BOREL TERS MAJORITY MARK: 272 — Nirupama Subramanian National Democratic Alliance (NDA) BuP: 240 | @ TDP: 46 | @ JD(U):42 | @ SHS:7 | © LIPRV:5 | @ JD(S):2 [@RLO:2| @JSP:2| © AGP:2| @AJSUP:4 | @UPPL:4| @HAMS:2 | ( ADAL:A | @NCP:2.| 0 SKM:4 | Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) { @ INC: 99 | @SP:37| @AITC:29 | @ DIMK: 22 | @SHSUBT: 9 | @NCPSP:8 | @RID:4| © CPUM):4 | @IUML:3 | @ AAP: 3 | @/MM:3 IKN:2 | @VCK:2 | @CPE2 | @ CPIMLI(L):2 | © KEC:4| @RLTP:4 | mphatic. An election result that throws up no outright win- @ RSP:4 | @ MDMK: 4 | @ BHRTADVSIP: 4 ners would notbe normally described as that. But this was no normal election. It was an election for the democratic © Others:15 heart andsoul of india. And inthis sense, the results ofthe . Independent: 7 | YSRCP: 4 | ASP(KR):4 | AIMIM: 2 SAD: 4] 2024 Lok Sabha election, which left the 8JP with fess than a ~ VOTPP:4 | 2PM: majority, were emphatic. An emphatic rejection of T= FRONTLINE JUNE, 2024R Prime Minister Narendra Modis creeping authoritarianism, his and Home Minister Amit ‘Shah's two-man regime, and their divisive pol- itics, anti federal tendencies, and idea of “de- velopment” that lined the pockets of crony capitalists without improving the lives of the ‘common people. An emphatic vote for politi- cal, social, and economic inclusion, for a more consultative government, and for the sanctity of the Constitution and the guarantees and protections written into it forall citizens. (One could describe the verdict as Madi's India-notshining moment, similar to the shock defeat in 2004 of the Atal Bihari Vai payee government. But it would not be out of place to go back even further and draw a parallel to the 1977 election. The last 10 ‘years often evoked comparisons to the 1975 77 Emergency, with the Modi government's reign of fear, his crackdown on political riv- als, ts, and the media using Central law enforcement agencies and military grade surveillance, and the centralisation of insect hi in 1977 for the Emergency. Unlike Indira Gandhi, Modi has not been voted out. The B)P is still the single largest par- ty, with wins in 240 constituencies. It made headway in some new ground even as it lost some old. It won 36.57 per cent of the vote share, a drop of only 0.73 percentage points from last time's 37.3 per cent. The party form the government with the help ofits alles, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the Janata Dal (nite), or JOU), the Shiv Sena, the National- ist Congress Party (NCP), the JanaSena Party, the janata Dal (Secular), the Lok Janshakti Par- ty (Ram Vilas), and other smaller partis. To- gether, the combine has 293 seats in the Lok Sabha. Modi isall set to be Prime Minister fora third term, UE WHETHER THE BJP WON is a diffe- rent question, best answered by the BIP's own metrics, the target it set it self, and Brand Modis self-proclaimed invinci- bility, Given the certitudes of slogans such as “Aki baar 400 paar” and “Modi ki guaran- tee”, the BIP's failure to achieve the halfway ‘mark of 272 in the $43:member Lok Sabha has redefined the meanings of victory and defeat. Within hours of the results coming in, Modi Given the certitudes of slogans such as “Abkibaar 400 paar” and ‘Modi ki guarantee”, the BIP’s failure to achieve the halfway mark of 272inthe 543-member Lok Sabha has redefined the meanings of victory and defeat. yazines https Modi tweeted: “Tow to the Janata Janardan for this ‘affection and assure thera that we wil continue the good work done in the last decade to keep = -— Salfiling the aspirations of, people.” announced a “fiStoHe)hira |termi fore NDA"YIThis is only the second time in India's history that a leader will continue for a third successive term. The first was Jawaharial Neh- ru in 1962, Modi has equalled Nehru, but his third term at the mercy of coalition partners, is not comparable to the thumping majority India's first Prime Minister received in 1962. ‘The celebrations at BJP"s New Delhi headquar- ters kept up appearances, but only just. “Op- position parties together could not win as ma- ny seats as the BJP won by itself” Modi said, spinning the shock of his first experience of ‘not receiving a majority since becoming Chief “Minister of Gujarat in 2002. But the joyless fac- es of party president .P. Nada and tome nister Amit Shah conveyed the truth: the BJP, ‘which won 303 seats in 2019, had been cut downto size. The details of the downsizing are even ‘TheBIP, which wor 203 seats in 2019, has been cut down tosize. Here, atthe BUPheacquartersin New Dethion June 4 nanisusunaure more damaging to Modi's aura. Ifthe road to Delhi passes through Uttar Pradesh, as they say, then the AKhilesh Yadav'led Samajwadi Party's assault on the BJP fortress helped the INDIA bloc rack up an impressive 43 seats in the State. The SP won 37 seats against 5 in 2019, and the Congress 6 against 1. The BJP ‘was reduced to 33 seats, 29 less than 2019, a > JUNE, 202414 COVER STORY NOTABLE Chandrashekhar Azad ‘The Bhim Army founder romped home in the Nagina (SC) seat. defeating Om Kumar of the BJP by over 1.5 lakh voles, giving his Aazad ‘Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) the lone seat in UP. With this victory, Azad has emerged as an alternative Dalit voice in UP, where the BSP is in decline. Amra Ram ——_44H4HH Comrade Amra Ram, afarmerleader in Rajasthan, won the CPI (Ms lone seat in the Stale. He bagged the Sikar seat, defeating ‘Sumedhanand Saraswati oftheeety YeroD ons ots 1rz0%, ‘Amra Ram had stood a distant third with just ‘over 30,000 votes. Shatrughan Sinha ‘The actortumed politician, popularly known as Shotgun Sina, ‘won the Asansol seat as a Trinamool candidate, F” defeating his nearest BJP. rival by nesrly 60,000 votes. Sinha had once served as a Minister inthe NDA goveinment under Atal Bihari Vajpayee and later joined the Conaress. Geniben Thaker ‘The candidate who prevented a BJP clean ‘sweep in Gujarat, Geniben won the Banaskantha seat, defeating Rekhaben hs ‘Chaudhari of the BUP by over 30.000 votes. The BJP won all26 seats in the State in the previous two elections. Geniben also ‘became famous for crovidfunding her lection campaign after her party said it couki not provide funds, Kishori Lal Sharma, who has workedin the Amethi and Rae Baraiiragion for over 40 years, said, I draw my strength from the people of the constituency and ‘the Gandhi famiy. | wil comestthe election on people’sissues.” Now dependent on two veteran politicians, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar and TDP chief N.Chandrababu Naidu, to prop him up, Modi may haveto scrap the plans he had drawn up for his third term before the election. defeat that ensured the party would be much di minished in New Delhi. In Faizabad, the constituency in which Ayod- hhya is located, the party whose leader inaugu- rated the Ram temple and claimed to have ush- ered in Ram Rajya was left shell shocked. The promise of the temple, built on the site of the 16th century Babri Masjid demolished by Hin- dutva kar sevaks under the leadership of LK. ‘Advani in 1992, had been the centrepiece of the EP's politi for decades, The BpP's sitting MP, Lallu Singh, was trounced by the SP's sharply chesen Dalit candi- date, Awadesh Prasad, who won by more than ‘54,000 votes. In what was a BJP stronghold, its vote share dropped 9 percentage points from a high of 52.8 per cent in 2018. A 100 km south, ‘Smnriti Irani, whose claim to political fame was her 2019 victory over Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in the Gandhi pocket borough of — Amethi, was trounced by Ku\Shaiiia, a loyal Congress worker, unknown outside the consti tuency. Closer to the bone, Modi trailed behind Jhis rival in Varanasi for a few rounds before win- ‘hing the Scat by/d hele Over" Stakehevotes In West Bengal, Modi and Shah pulled out all the stops, confident that the party would make big gains. But Mamata Banerjee stopped the BJP in its tracks. Her party, the Trinamool Congress, won 28 seats, 7 more than 2019, while the BJP was reduced to 12 from the 18 it had, HERE MODI AND Co. can take cheer is in their unqualified suc cess in Odisha, ‘The party breached the ageing warhorse Naveen Pat- naik’s bastion to win 20 of the 21 seats. After a ‘quarter century reign, Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal {got zero seats while the Congress bagged one. ‘The BJP swept Madhya Pradesh, winning all 29 seats but on ground prepared by former Chief Minister “Shivraj Singh Chouhan, dropped unceremoniously after the 2023 sembly election victory. With Chouhan vindi- cated in spectacular fashion-he won the Vid- isha seat by over 8.2 lakh votes~Modi's halo has dimmed further. > Y Prime Minister Narendra Moci with Telugu Desam Party Chief (Chandrababu Naidu and Bihar Chief ‘Minister Niisn Kumarduring the National Democratic Alisnce meetingat his resiaence inNew Deion June 5.4m COVERSTORY » JANKIBAAT 15, NOTABLE LOSERS ‘Smriti rani One of the biggest Upsets ofthis election was that of Sra lrani, who lost Ametni to Kishor Lal Sharma of the Congress by over 1.67 lakh votes. After losing ‘Amethi to Rahul Gandhi in 2014, she wrested it from him in 2019, only to lose it this time. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury The veteran Congress leacer lost in Baharampur to cricketer turned politician Yusuf Pathan, fielded by the Trinamool, who romped home with alead of over 85,000 votes. Chowdhury had won the Baharampur seat five times since 1999 and setved as the leader of the Congress in the Tith Lok Sabha Rohini Acharya Lalu Prasacts daughter lostin Saran to Rajiv Pratap Rudy of the BLP, who coasted home with a slim margin of over 13.000 votes. Interestingly, Pudy lost the seat to Lalu Prasad in 2009 only to wrestit from Lalu Prasad's wife, Rabri Devi, in 2014, He defeated Chandrika Rai, whose daughters married to Lalu Prasad's son, in 2019, Agatha Sangma PA, Sangma’s daughter and Conrad Sangma’s sister lost the family bastion of Tura in Meghalaya to Saleng Sangma of the Congress by more than 1.5 lakh votes. The seat had been with the ‘Sangma family since 1977 except for the 1989-91 period. JUNE, 2024with 234 losing Side, bueit'sevetal, look like the real winner ofthis election. Most importantly, India has its strongest parliamen- tary opposition since 2014. It succeeded in proving that the BJP, despite its money and muscle, was defeatable. It did so despite going into the election with one hand tied behind its back. Two Chief Ministers in the alliance, Jharkhand’s Hemant Soren and Delhi's Arvind Kejriwal, were jailed just ahead of the election ‘onscam allegations. The BYP broke up the Shiv Sena and the NCP in Maharashtra, with Uddhav Thackeray ‘and Sharad Pawar not even able to retain their ‘lection symbols. In Bihar, Ntish Kumar, head ‘of the JO(U), dealt a morale-shattering blow to the opposition bloc by switching over to the BJP at the last minute at being denied the posi Except for the Shiv Sena, none of the BJP's NDA allies are Hindutva fellow travellers and will likely send the idea of a uniform civil code into deep freeze. Ditto for one nation, one election. Stedbhés ai cutbki S Schoo of Art paint portraits of Prme Minister Narerra Modi, Congress teader Rahul Ganchi DebiiChief Miniter AnindKejrwa, and ‘other teaders ahead ‘ofthe LokSabha election results on June Lin Mumba tin of its canvenar. ‘thi naoreéhiend BireCHorate eRe CCl Z Bureau of Investigation, and the Income Tax (C1) department were used relentlessly to spread fear and confusion among the ranks of the opposition. The HT authorities fraze the ‘Congress party’s funds, andit took a Supreme Court ruling to reverse it. The supposedly neu. tral Election Commission of india, the umpire of the great Indian election, itselfseemed neu tralised when it allowed Modi, Shah, and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to bra- zenly violate the Indian Penal Code and the Model Code of Conduct and attack Musims in their speeches. Television channels became willing ampli fiers of Modi and the ruling party. Opposition parties got little coverage or hostile coverage. ‘The obstacles the parties in the INDIA bloc Congress, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (OMK), SP, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb ‘Thackeray), NCP (Sharacchancira Pawar), CPI (M0, Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal-had to surmount makes their wins all the sweeter. ‘The Congress tally in the Lok Sabha has in- ‘creased from 52 to 99. Despite the BIP's de cade ong effort to turn Rahul Gandhi into an object of ridicule, he kept att, and has had the last laugh. He and party president Malikarjun Kharge took the fight against the BJP to the pe ‘ple energetically, struck the right chords with their emphasis on securing the Constitution and social justice, and on the ground came to pragmatic and workable arrangements with its INDIA bloc partners. Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jado Yatra and Nyay Yatra, both panned by critics as “NGO-type” work that distracted the party from the real job of winning the clec tion, may have helped in fact to reconnect the party to the people. HESEATS FOR THE OPPOSITION came in the BjP-dominated northern Hindi heartland and in the southern States. ‘The Congress clawed its way back to a respec table nine seats in Karnataka, eight more than 2019. in Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance of the Congress, NCP (SP), and Shiv Sena (UBT), trounced the BJP and its allies, the Eknath Shinde led Shiv Sena and the ‘Ajit Pawar-led NCP. It is now apparent that ters did not like the BJP’s actions of split parties (and families) and forcing defections. ‘The MVA won 30 seats, with the Congress tak ing 13. Ajit Pawar was badly bitten by his wife's, Sunetra Pawar, loss to his cousin Supri- ya Sule in Baramati by over a lakh votes. His party won anly 1 of the 4 seats it contested, ‘while Chief Minister Shinde’s Shiv Sena won 7 of the 15 seats it contested. The DMK and its allies held the fort in Tamil ‘Nadu, winning all 39 seats plus 1 in Puducher: COVERSTORY > JANKIBAAT 17 Itis a myth that coalition governments spell disaster. The most consequential decisions in recent history, from the liberalisation of the ‘economy to the US-India civil nuclear agreement, were taken by coalition governments. y Former Jammu ‘and Kashmir Chict Ministers Omar ‘Abdullah and Mehbooba Muttiat Independence Day celebration’ in Stinagaron August 15,2018. Leaders lke Mutt! and Abdulla may have lostthiselection becauseotthelr pastsattron alliances. ry. The All india Anna Dravida Munnetra Kaz- ‘hagam (AIADMK) failed to open its account for the second time. Significantly, despite the hype that the BJP would win three or four seats and get 20 per cent of the vote share, the party's abrasive State president, K. Annama- lai, failed to open the party's account. By con- testing 23 seats against $ in 2019, the BJP in- ‘creased its vote share to 11.26 per cent from 366 per cent in 2019. In Kashmir, the votes were clearly anti-RP. Parties known to be proxies of the BJP fared badly. Even Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chief Mehbooba Mufti and chairperson af the National Conference (NC), Omar Abdullah, may have lost because of their past saffron al- lances. While the NC managed to add two seats to the INDIA kitty, the PDP did not win any, and Engineer Rashid, a maverick poli cian imprisoned since 2019, defeated former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on the single plank that getting elected would win him his freedom. Bread-and-butter issues dominated over Hindutva, it seemed the BJP’s overconfidence thad blinded it to the economic distress on the ground. The party believed that the gover ‘ment's free ration scheme for aver 800 million people given under the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana—introduced during the pandemic and extended in November 2023 for five years-was an electoral silver bullet. But the gratitude of the beneficiaries, some of ‘whom were dependent on these rations for their survival, exposed their economic des- pair, It belied the government's claims of “in- ‘lusive growth” having pushed poverty down tobelow 5 per cent, and its other claim of ha ing pulled 125 crore people out of “multi ‘mensional poverty”. The reality is that India does not reliably know the number of poor in > JUNE, 202418 COVER STORY Massive margins ‘The 2024 election saw several candidates break all previous records to post huge victories. The biggest among them was Rakibul Hussain of the Conaress, who won the Dhubri seat in Assam by 10,12,476 votes. The second was Shankar Lalwan) of the BUP, who won Indore with a margin of 10,08,077 votes. Five ather candidates won with a margin of more than 6 lakh votes, while 11 other candidates were winners by a margin of more than 5 lakh votes, Constituency _| Candidate Dhubri Rakibul Hussain Indore Shankar Lalwani Vigisha Shivraj Singh Chouhan Navsari CR. Paill Gandhinagar mit Shah Diamond Harbour | Abhishek Banerjee Tripura West Biplab Kumar Deb the country, as the last publicly released de- tailed data on this front, measured by expendi- ture rad GonstinptiontWias an 26 Pz Thee? vernment's fear of numbers has even led tothe | ¥ postponement of the decadal census. Election campaign Post-election surveys by the Centre for the | pestersfeaturing Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)-Lokniti | Narendra Modi found that only 40 per cent of respondents felt | Rahul Ganchi. and their financial condition had improved in the | MalikarjunKharge past five years. For the rest, the economic sit- | on avuckinPunjab uation had remained the same or worsened. | on May28. ‘They are more likely to have voted for the op- | stAstiseeunnasivar position. Also evident has been the anger at Post-election surveys by CSDS-Lokniti found that only 40 per cent of respondents felt thi financial condition had improved in the last five years. For the rest, the economic situation had mained the same or worsened. the Modi government's apathetic handling of unemployment, For most people, the govern- ment’s blithe prescription of swarazgar, or selfemployment, is low-paying-for women, it ‘can even be nonrpaying-and does little to im: prove lives. ‘The Agnipath scheme making mil- itary service short-term and contractual ad- ded to the misery of the youth in parts of north India where jobs in the armed forces have been a generational source of stable em- playment and prestige. The drastically pared Gown iting for eovertinient vacancies Wiki question papers leaked ahead of admission ex- aminations for the handful of job openings ad ded to people's ire. Compounding the prevailing insecurity in the Hindi heartland was the boast by some BJP leaders that 400 paar would enable a thitd- term Modi government to modify the Const tution, I¢ turned out to he the party's biggest self goal. The swiftness with which the INDIA bloc turned this into their main plank of at tack-that the BJP plan was not just to change the secular character ofthe country but alsoto remove reservation guaranteed in the Consti tution plan-took the BJP by surprise and pushed the party into a rare defensive mode. Another important thread in the INDIA bloc’s performance was the SP’s emergence as the third largest party behind the BJP and the Congress. This was owing to its astute wooing of the PDA-Pichchda (backward castes, in- cluding non Yadav and Yadavs), Dalit, and Al- psankhyak (minorities/Muslim) communi ties-and the readiness of the Congress to play junior partner inthe alliance. Moreover, Maya: wati’s sometimes open and sometimes silent support of the BJP backfired this time, and the > IAS GS Foundation Course Mine | English & Hindi Medium Deters) eee tetra Cc res Nee ee te ny eee nea) Unlimited View Time Totes ay Eee JUDICIARY FOUNDATION COURSE Offline & Live Online | English & Hindi Medium 5) C1 len) Courses Offline & Live Online Dae uke LU erica eked Wee eet 1) eeletiencabentine) Sa cae iets’ Eto onic Ene Cnet ud TARGET CLAT 2025 COMMON LAW ADMISSION TEST [i 750+ Classes © 22Months Course Study Material <7 Printed Class Notes Online Test Series State-Specific, Prelims & Mains Unlimited View Time Till Course Validity crishtiiudiciarycom ©8010 208 000 ns Open (8010 440 440 CcallNow For Cource Enquiry Cee ry fs 150+ Classes 7 Months Course J Unlimited View Time D Printed Study Materi Doubt Clearing Session Download o Drishti Leaming App A ‘Aso Avallabloon Windows CR and CysDalit Vole Amngiated [AO ARE !SP-congress? alliance. {As evident from the debacle in Faizabad, the Ram temple fetched no electoral dividends for the BJP. The SP's choice ofa Dalit candidate in this non reserved constituency was astute. Mod's communally divisive speeches claiming the Congress would bulldaze the temple did not find any takers in a town where voters were seething with resentment at the demo tion of homes and shops to make way for the shiny new temple. This backfiring was similar to what happened in Banswara in Rajasthan, where Modi launched his communal diatribe, demonising the Muslim community as “infil trators” and “those with more children”. The As evident from the debacle in Faizabad, the Ram temple fetched no electoral dividends for the BJP. The SP’s choice ofa Dalit candidate in this non-reserved constituency was astute. Rahul Gandhi posesforaselic with Samajwadi Party president ‘Akhilesh Yadav during the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra in ‘Agra, Uttar Pracesh, onFebruary 25. fy Canidicakecheke 1630 by over Aa ES. to a candidate of the Bharat Adivasi Party, a new political outfit and INDIA bloc ally. HE HARSH REALITY CHECK delivered by the verdict means the BJP may hhave to go back to the drawing board, to rethink everything from its remaining ideo- logical agenda items to its pet projects. This will be a rude shock. Modi was so keen to create the aura ofa king'in-waiting that, break- ing with convention, he asked bureaucrats in every ministry to draw up a 100-day plan for his third term before the election. A day after multiple exit polls showed, wrongly as it turned out, the NDA winning 350 to 401 seats, Modi even called a meeting to review the plans. ‘Now dependent on two veteran politicians, JD(U) leader Nitish Kumar and TOP chief N. Chandrababu Naidu, to prop him up, Modi may have to scrap those plans. Except for the Shiv Sena, none of the BJP's NDA allies are Hin- ‘Guta fellow travellers and will likely send the idea of a uniform civil cade into deep freeze. Ditto for one nation, one election, Instead, Naidu and Nitish will take the opportunity to push their own agendas. ‘The TDP chief is reported to have a wish ist The Muslim voice in Parliament ‘The 2024 election saw 24 Muslims getting elected to the Lok Sabha, two less than in 2079, None of them are from the NDA, while nine are from the Congress. Some of the star performers ‘were cricketer tumed politician Yusuf Pathan of the Trinamool, who defeated Congress veteran Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury to win the Baharampur seat: AIMIM chief Asaduddin Owaisi won Hyderabad for the fifth time; and Shatt Parambil of the Congress defeated CPI(M) veteran KK. Shailaja in Vadakara, T No. of Mustim MPS for several ministerial portfolios, the speaker- ship of the Lok Sabha, and the grant of Special (Category Status to Andhra Pradesh. Nitish will, push his own demands for important Cabinet |W berths and a special financial package for Bi- | ‘Thousands waitto hhar, aimed to strengthen his hand ahead of | register forjobsin next year's Assembly election. Israolat an/T1 ‘The Congress had promised to repeal the | campus in Lucknow (Amendment Act if it came to | on January24.The power. Witha solid presence in the opposition | BUF's benches, the INDIA bloc must make a serious | overconfidence bid for it. This is no time to rest or take along | seemed to nave break. The party has to build on its gains, rein- | blinded othe \igorate its workers in every State. Assembly | economic distress ‘elections later this year and next year in States | cn the ground: such as Haryana, Maharashtra, and Bihar will | swoezesien COVERSTORY » JANKIBAAT = 21 test its performance in the Lok Sabha elec- tion. Certainly, the BJP will be secking to re- coup its lost prestige. It can be expected to go into election mode immediately. NDIA IS BACK in the era of coalition polit: ics, with all ts pulls and pushes, and it will be in stark contrast to the past de- cade’s one-party rule and the authoritariar ism it encouraged. A decision such as demo- netisation, or the manner in wich the farm las, or the removal of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir and its summary demotion to two Union Territories, would never have been sprung on an unsuspecting citizenry by a coa ltion government. Its a myth that coalition governments spell disaster. The most conse- quential decisions in recent history, ftom the liberalisation of the economy to the US-India Civil nuclear agreement, were taken by coal tion governments. A coalition engenders na- tional conversations and is the way forward for indian federalism, Whether Messrs Modi and Shah ean sum- mon up skills they have nat shown so far to nurture a coalition remains to be seen. It is al- so unclear who will be held accountable for the 8)P debacle. In Maharashtra, Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has already taken responsibility for the NDA's poor showing and asked to be relieved of government duties to devote himself to the upcoming Assembly ‘election. Now, long sidelined heavyweights in the BJP such as Rajnath Singh and Nitin Gadka- 1, or Chouhan, may find more voice at party meetings. The reported tensions between the RSS and the BJP may spill into the open. For a man haunted by the greatness of the first Prime Minister, “After Modi, who?” is likely to become a question, but certainly not in the same content that it was asked about Nehru. For now, the results have shown that Indian voters are too wise to be taken in by fakery. They have shown that they see the Constitu- tion not as an abstraction but asa document. with reallife implications. They know the va Ine ofa strong opposition to serve as a check con the ruling party. India’s voters have spoken, and they have spoken for democracy. = ‘Nirypama Subramanian is an independent jours who ha worked earer at The Hindu and 2t The cin Eepess. JUNE, 2024CASTE RETURNS TO CENTRE STAGE The 2024 election's defining theme was the resurgence of caste as a deciding factor ina significant number of seats. In the absence of any wave, frustration in some castes, and fears of losing reservation in others, put paid to the NDAs hope ofa grand sweep. ANAND MISHRA smuchas people like talking about eliminating caste, there are no signs that it is going away anytime soon, ‘or even becoming less im: A BA. portant, either socially or politically, On August 1,2023, the Patna High ‘Cart biving its 20 -ahiendl t0-4€Aste stirvey i Bihar, noted that “despite attempts to efface it from the social fabric, caste remains a reality and refuses to be swept aside, wished away, or brushed aside nor does it wither away and dls perse into thin air”. Nothing expresses this better than the elec tion results of 2024, where parties across lines reaped rich dividends from formidable caste alliances, not only in the traditional caste caul drons of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar but also in Maharashtra and Karnataka, where social hie- rarchies are supposedly les rigid. ‘The 204 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections had ‘created the perception that the days of caste assertion or “voting your caste” were a thing ofthe past. The BJP, espousing a harcHline Hin: dutva philosophy, had papered over the role of caste identities to consolidate its hold on TreeldbactheBIB fielded a Thakur — candidate while the BSP contestant was Brahmin. Ina seat where Dalits account for 25per cent of the electorate, Muslims 14 erent, and Yada L2per cent, the SPs calculations paid of, and its Dalit candidate won, Itappears that the Dalits moved away from the BJP owing to widespread fears that the party, if given an overwhelming majority, would change the Constitution and end reservation. power. By marginalising the Muslim voice and making Muslims the enemy, the BJP, in the words ofa party worker in Bhopal, made the “Hindu-Muslim” binary the basis of the pre- vious two elections. ‘Nothing bears cut the shift from religion to ‘ste better than the victory.of Awadhesh Pra S4d,-4 Dalit lead frcnitthe Sainafwadt Patty. (SP), from the general constituency of Faia? bad, which is home to Ayodhya and the Ram temple. This was a particularly big setback for the BJP, which was banking heavily on the eu- phoria generated by the temple not only in Ut tar Pradesh but countrywide. So, 10 years after Prime Minister Narendra Modi steered the JP to a meteoric rise, craft ing for it the kind of single party majority that ‘only the Congress had so far enjoyed in the early decades after Independence and in 1984 when it won404 of S4 seats in the wake of in dira Gandhi's assassination, the political dis course has turned back full circle to caste. The so-called rainbow social coalition that the BJP ‘built assiduously has shown that it can be rup- tured, and how. ‘What started as localised protests by Ksha- triya groups against the BJP in its bastion State of Gujarat travelled to Uittar Pradesh, where Rajput or Kshatriya villages held mahapan chayats to boycott the BJP, in protest against the lack of representation to Thakurs in ticket JUNE, 202424 COVERSTORY Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh, both Thakurs. LUPDID CASTE REALLY go away under B the BJP? Speaking to Frontline, Ajay Gudavarthy, an associate professor at the Centre for Political Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, said: “Caste remained a sig nificant factor all through the 10-year period of Modi’s populist mobilisation. What the BIP- RSS combine managed to do was internally ubvert the democratic aspirations of the mar ginalised castes. They offered them represen tation without any accompanying social de mands. This came under stress in this election” In 2019, data ftom the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) showed that 33 per cent of Dalits and 42 per cent of OBCs vot ed for the BJP. These numbers are likely to have dropped this time. While it appears that Dalits moved away from the BJP owing to widespread fears that the party if given an overwhelming majority, ‘would change the Constitatioitahdentd reser vation, it is trickier to understand the OBC vote. While dominant sections among Dalits and OBCs, whom Gudavarthy refers to as “mezzanine elites”, might have continued with the BJP because of the question of repre: sentation, the lower sections moved away due to the redistributive potential promised by the ‘opposition, especially the Congress. The lower sections were also able to see the big picture better, without an exclusive emphasis on representation. Gudavarthy said: “We saw a conflict of in- terest between the dominant castes. For in stance, in Uttar Pradesh, tension brewed bet: ween ‘Rajputs and Brahmins; in Gujarat, Rajputs were unhappy with the BJP just as the Jats were in Haryana, Hindutva polities is struggling to hold divergent castes together under its resurgent Hindu mobilisation. He added: “As the traction for a polarised anti Muslim mobilisation is ebbing, itis dif ult to consolidate a ‘common’ Hindu identity. In turn, the anti-Muslim rhetoric took a beat- ing because of a faltering economy that could not meet the aspirational momentum of the underprivileged castes. The question that should interest us in the long run is what shape caste mobilisation will take without an- Modi's subaltern \dutva experiment was defeated by the SP’s strategy of fielding several non-Yadav candidates, which lured away traditional BIP supporters. Casteratuinstohaunt 80P mUitar Pracest ‘Muslim rhetoric and with a greater redistrib- utive thrust” ‘The rising aspirations ofthe subaltern class- ‘es meant that their demand was for more than just foodgrains and freedom from feat, which is ultimately the only thing the BJP appeared to promise, and they switched to an alterna- ive that promised a bigger share in the re- source pie. In Uttar Pradesh in this election, the BJP lost 9 of the 17 seats reserved for SCs. The SP won 7-Robertsganj, Machhilishahr, Lalgan|, Kaushambi, Jalaun, Mohanlalganj, and Bta- wah-dealing a body blow to the BJP, which bad won all 17 in2014 and 14 in 2019. That Mo- di's margin of victory came down by more than three lakh votes in Varanasi despite the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) trying to make the contest triangular is a telling commentary on the caste consolidation that took place. Dharmveer Prajapati, a senior Minister in Uttar Pradesh, while speaking to a news chan- nel, blamed “the large-scale influence of caste” as a reason for the BJP’s setback, ack- nowledging that Dalit and backward caste vo: tersmoved away, influenced by the opposition campaign about the BJ's bid to undo reservation, Inan interview to Frontline, Javed Ali Khan, an SP Rajya Sabha member, said: “The SCs ‘and OBCs sensed a danger to the Constitution, ‘They felt reservation was under threat; a lot of BJP leaders made statements about changes in the Constitution.” The SP'ssuccess can alo be attributed toits formula of fielding Dalit candidates from non- reserved seats where its OBC core ensured the candidate’ victory, For instance, the party fielded a Bhumihar candidate in Ghosh jeev Rai) and a Nishad candidate in Sant Kabir ‘nagar (Laxmikant Nishad), and clearly benefit: ed by gamering caste votes along with ts core ‘Muslim adav votes, Of the SP's 37 Lok Sabha members, 20 belong to the OBCs, 8 to the SCs, and 4 ate Muslim. The party fielded only five COVER STORY > CASTERETURNSTOCENTRESTAGE 25 y SP chief Akhilesh Yadavaccressinga pub icmeetingin Muzeffamagar.a hotbed of ‘commuralism, on Apri 15. The party won the seat this time, ceteating the BIPS Sanjeev Balyan, whowon itin 2014ane 2019.en tes this time, all from AKhilesh Yadav’s family. Thus, many of the OBC leaders are from among the non -Yadavs who had ear shifted to the BP. The SP's candidate selec- tion breached the BJP’s Extremely Backward Class (EBO votes: in Ghoshi and Sant Kabimna fr, the BjP fielded the sons of Om Prakash Rajbhar and Sanjay Nishad, who head two key NDA allies, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Par- ty and the Nishad Party. eee ee teres aye hapanchayats in western Uttar Pra- Sesh vowing cutee The eas fer cere ee cel phase show the impact of this. The INDIA bloc won six of the eight seats, including Muzaffar- ‘nagar, which has been the laboratory of com- te pubs dee 206m ros contest, Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan lost despite the BJP’s alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal, as the Sb’s Jat candidate gat the com- Bt Meret ities ens oa oer onc. in eastern Utar Pr det ich war at peer ee JUNE, 2024tern Hindutva experiment tottered, as the SP, following the BSP’s 2017 Assembly election. formula, fielded severalnion Nelda earididates which lured away traditional BJP supporters such as the Sainthwars (Kurmi) and the Nish- ads (boatmen) in substantial numbers across seats, ONFIDENT OF THE Musiim Yadav vote, given the perception of the BSP as.a s- lent BJP ally, Akhilesh Yadav took cah culated risk to widen his party’s reach to the PDA (Pichchda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak), and it paid off, s not only EBCs but even substantial sections of Dalits, disillusioned with the BSP's softening towards the BJP, moved to the SP- ‘Congress alliance, especially in the latter phas ‘es when the opposition pointed out that the BJP would remove reservation if it won 400- plus seats. In Bihar, the caste survey, published in 2023, found that EBCs constitute 36 per cent ‘of the State's population, while Dalits account for 14.6 per cent. Yadavs account for 1.3 per cent and Muslims 17 per cent, which means an ‘over 30 per cent vote base for the Rashtriya ja- nrata Dal (RJD) atthe start. While Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) undoubtedly brings in the Paswan or Dusadh vote, which accounts for 5.3 per cent of the population, there is no mo: Congress ‘president Malikarjun Khare ‘with CPI (ML) Liberation general secretary Dipankar inPatna on May 26.The CPI (ML) Liberation enjoys ‘much support among the Kushwahas ane Daits.en Thetermdenotes thecombined supportofthe ‘Kwrmis ae the Koeris, who account forabout7 percent ofBihar's ‘population, which has remained the support base of ‘itsh Kumar. i nolithic Dalit vote bank in Bihar. ‘The Ravidas community, 5.3 per cent of the population, Sere traditionally absOeidted With the Gol? gress before the BSP’s rise but had moved from the BSP to the BJP. This time, in the re- served (SC) Sasaram seat, represented in the past by Congress stalwarts such as Jagjivan Ram and Meira Kumar, a relatively unknown Congress candidate named Manoj Kumar de feated the BJP, which won the seat in 2014 and 2019. RID leader Tejashwi Yadav campaigned on the BAAP plank (standing for Bahujan, Agda [privileged castes], Aadhi Aabadi [women], and poor). While not as successful as the SP, he did add four seats to the Mahagathband ‘han, which overall won nine seats in Bihar, up from the solitary seat in 2018. The Congress bagged three and the CPIML) Liberation two. ‘The RID fielded a greater number of Kush: waha candidates to breach Nitish Kumar's LuveKush strategy of Kurmi-Koeri unity but with mixed success. In Aurangabad, for in- stance, which is called the “Chittorgarh of Bi har” and has been represented by Kshatriya- Rajputs since 1953, the RDS Abhay Kumar Sinha, a Kushwaha, won against the JP's sit- ting Rajput MP Sushil Kumar. In Karakat, too, the NDAs key Kushwaha face Upendra Kushwaha lost to the CPKMLYs Kushwaha candidate. This breach of the Kush- waha fortress by the oppesition alliance will hhave ramifications for the Assembly clection. Kushwahas account for 3.5 per cent of the population and Kurmis 2.9 per cent. allying with the Left, particularly the CPI (ML), which has traditionally had astrong base ‘among Kushwahas and Dalits, benefited the INDIA bloc. In the 2020 Assembly election, the CPIML) won 12 of the 19 Assembly seats it ‘contested. The arrival of the Left in Bihar elec: tions sa significant marker of the return of Da- lits and EBCs, who had moved towards the EJP as it deepened its subaltern Hindutva ‘outreach, In Karnataka, the Vokkaliga-Lingayat con solidation was a key reason behind the NDAs 19 seats: 17 for the BJP and 2 for the Janata Dal Gecular), or JD(). In the Kalyana Karnataka region (northern part), the Congress won five ‘of nine Lok Sabha seats owing to the strong in- fluence of AHINDA (a Kannada acronym for Alpasankhyataru, or minorities; Hindulidava: ri, of backward classes; and Dalitaru, or Da- lis) polities perfected by Congress Chief Mi ter Siddaramaiah over the decades. Unlike the Congtess{D(S) alliance in the State in 2019, which boomeranged as the two parties were rivals in the Vokkaliga region, the BJPIDG) alliance worked as both parties are strong in different regions of the State and their vote transfers complemented each other. Of the Right and Left Dalits, the former had earlier shown some liking for the BJP, but this lection saw the Dalit votes consolidating be hind the Congress. lection campaign was Maratha reserva: tion. This proved to be a double wham. my for the EJP, which lost in the Marathwada and the Vidarbha regions. In Marathwada, the epicentre of the Maratha reservation demand, the BJP failed to defend the Latur, Nanded, and Jalna seats. In Vidarbha, there was a vi ble reaction in the Kunbi community against the State government's handling of the Ma: ratha reservation demand. This helped the ‘Congress win five seats, while Uddhav Thacke- ray’s and Sharad Pawar’s parties won one cach. The Maratha protest turned the battle in favour of the INDIA bloc in western and north- em Maharashtra. In seats such as Solapur, Macha, and Sangli in western Maharashtra I N MAHARASHTRA, A MAJOR issue in the InUttar Pradesh, Rajput villages held meetings to boycott the BJP inprotest against the lack of representation ticket Bia caste survey chalenges BIP's Hindutva unity and Dhule, South Ahmednagar, Shirdi, Nash- ik, and Dindori in northern Maharashtra, the table turned in favour of INDIA because of en bloc Maratha votes. ASTE HAS OCCUPIED centre stage in Andhra Pradesh’s electoral politics for along time, with three groups domi: nating the discourse: Kammas, Kapus, and Reddys. Violent altercations between these groups around elections are also common. ‘The Kammas have primarily aligned them- selves with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP, the Reddys with the Congress, and the Kapus with the JanaSena Party (since its inception). ‘The NDAs primary concern over the past few months has been to consolidate votes. While the JanaSena’s Pawan Kalyan failed in his previous two attempts (2014 and 2019) to ‘consolidate Kapu votes, the consolidation and vote transfer worked in his favour this year. His party had a 100 per cent strike rate, win ning all 21 Assembly seats and 2 Lok Sabha seats it contested. According to The Hindu CSDS-Lokniti Post- Poll Survey 2019, the dominant castes pre- ferred the TDP, whereas a majority of Dalit and Adivasi voters sided with the YSK Con- gress Party. The YSRCP won Araku, the only reserved (ST) Lok Sabha seat. Barring Tirupa: ti, which the YSRCP won, the TDP won the ‘other three reserved (SC) Lok Sabha seats. This time, the antiincumbency against Ja- gan Mohan Reddy was so high (YSRCP won ‘only 11 of 175 seats in the Assembly) that even some Reddy lobbies are said to have worked against him. Sources from the ground con- firmed that Reddy loyalists of the Congress ‘campaigned for the TDP. Jagan’s attempt at so ial engineering by launching “BC corpora- tions” has not benefited him primarily be- cause budget allocations for the targeted schemes were lacking, In the Konaseema belt, Where Setti Balijas previously sided with the YSRCP, there appears to have been a split in their votes this time. {In Telangana, analysts had flagged early on that the Congress prioritising Reddys over the ‘OBCs would cost it at least a couple of seats, and it proved to be true. Of the seven Reddys the Congress fielded, only three won, > JUNE, 2024v ‘Telangana Chief Minister Rovarth Rescy campaigning n the Werangal reserved (SC) seat con May 7. The Concress won the seat by 2 massive margin of ever22lakh votesandaiso bagged the wo other resenvec (SC) seats in the Siate ay soca In 2019, polling data showed, the EyP made significant gains among the dominant castes and OBCs in the Lok Sabha election compared with its performance in the 2018 Assembly election. Election observers believe there is a similar patter election, where the BJP's vote share rose from 19.45 per cent in 2019 to 35.08 per cent. Among the Scheduled Castes in the State, the BJP’s Madiga outreach began ahead of the 2023 Assembly election. An SC sub caste accounting for nearly 50 per cent of the SC population, Madigas have been angry about being left behind in both political repre- sentation and reservation benefits. Modi had even promised them subcategorisation and fielded two Madiga leaders while the Congress did not field any. The Congress, however, won all three re- served (SC) seats of Peddapalle, Warangal, and Nagarkumool. The two reserved (S1) seats were divided between the Adivasi and Lamba- da communities (there is an ongoing tussle between the two groups over reservation). ‘The Congress won Mahabubabad, where all the parties fielded Lambada candidates. ‘The BJP won Adilabad, where all the parties Maharashtra, saw the BJP lose in Marathwada, the epicentre ofthe Maratha reservation demand, and Vidarbha, where the Kunbis were unhappy with the way the State government handled the demand. fielded Adivasi leaders. The BIP first made in- roads into the Adilabad constituency in 2018 by fielding a Congress rebel named Soyam Ba: puRao. With the breach in the BJP’s grand social litign experiment, many experts are specu- Tativg in Ghee poasibiltyeuF the Modi Bove ‘ment going on to implement the report of the Rohini Commission set up in 2017, which re commended the division of OBCs into four subcategories, holding that OBCs are not a ‘monolithic bloc and that different sub-castes exist at different ladders of development with- in the group and require separate focussed at- tention. Nine States and a Union Territory have decategorised OBCs so far. They are And: bra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnata- 4a, Haryana, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra, and Puducherry. After a post election meeting of NDA allies, senior Janata Dal (United) leader K.C. Tyagi re minded everyone that it was Bihar that first published the caste survey results and took pains to emphasise that no party had so far opposed a caste census. Itis no secret that the [JP does not favour a caste census, but as Mo- i3.0 comes to terms with the challenges of running a coalition government, it will find it hard to sweep caste under the carpet as is its wont. And caste equations will continue to keep the election pot boiling. = ith inputs rom Amey Teodkr, Vihar Ahmed Sayeed, and Ayesha Mirhaz from Maharashea Kamataka, and ‘ancrva Prasesh and Tesngana> Women voters show theirinkec fingers after castingtheir votes in Purba Medinipur. West Bengal. on May25.utea. satan HOW WOMEN VOTED If political participation is a combination of increased voter registration, voting, and participating in elections as candidates, the gender gap is still pretty wide in India. T.K. RAJALAKSHM! june 2s, 202430 COVER STORY n mid-April, the BJP unveiled its Sankalp Patra, or manifesto, with the acronym GYAN, with special fo cus on the youth, farmers, women, and the poor. These were the “Mo- di guarantees”. For women, the party promised to increase the number of lakhpati didis by empowering women selthelp groups GHGS), developing infrastructure for working women such as hostels and creches, implementing the Wo- men’s Reservation Act, and ensuring more help desks for women at police stations. Last ‘year, some 15,000 women SHGs were provid: ‘ed drones, Thus, the Namo Drone Didis, titled after the Prime Minister, came into existence. ‘These were women who would help in agri cultural operations. A month before the elec: tion, 1,000 drones were distributed. One new addition was the promise to expand health services among women specifically for anae- mia, osteoporosis, and cancer screening, In 2044, the party coined the Beti Bachao ‘Beti Padhao catchphrase with pramises to,2d. Tiree price ALE atic hhemnploymenall OF which were later put on the back burner. In 2019, its focus was on the rights of Muslim wo: men and outlawing triple talag, commitment to the Women’s Reservation Bill, and provid- ing easy loans to women, ‘The Congress on its part promised Rs.8,500 to women from poor families from July 1 ifthe INDIA bloc came to power. It pro: mised to implement the Women’s Reservation ‘Act immediately; reserve 50 per cent of jobs for women in Central government services; appoint more women to high position jobs such as police officers and judges; remove \wage discrimination in similar forms of wor increase institutional credit to women SHGs; double the Central government's contribution for schemebased workers; guarantee equal rights in marriage, succession, and inheri tance laws; and expand women's participation in the workforce. HILE'THE CONGRESS promised to transfer money directly into the accountsof women, the BIP stuck to “Modis guarantees”. Things tooka different tum when, ina direct appeal to Hindu women in a rally in Rajasthan, Narendra Modi cau- tioned voters that the Congress would take In the few States that saw arise in overall voting percentages, itis only ina handful, such as Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, that this could be attributed to a rise in voter turnout by women. away their mangalsutra (worn by married Hin du women) as well as their gold and give it away (10 minorities). The BJP lost the seat in Banswara-Dungarpur from where this state- ment was made, exposing the limits of polari sation even among women voters. ‘Whether all these appeals and promises im- pacted the voting behaviour of women can on- ly be revealed by large surveys based on prop: er sampling. The preliminary picture ‘emerging from the statewise overall voting percentages across all seven phases of the 2024 general election, released by the Election Commission of India (ECD at the end of the se- venth phase of voting, is a mixed one. The da- ta reveal that the all-India voting percentage dropped from 67.40 per cent in 2019 (67.10 per cent excluding postal ballots) to 65.79 in 2024, Remarkably, this decline in voter turnout has been sharper among women than men. In 2019, the proportion of clectors who voted was marginally higher for women than men. In 2024, however, it was marginally lower for women than men. According to the BCI, 31.2 crore women voted this time. The allIndia vo. ter turnout was 65.80 per cent for men and 65.78 per cent for women, Of 31 States and Un- jon Territories, the voter turnout percentages ‘of women exceeded that of men in 19 States, All States in the north-eastern region, barring ‘Tripura and Sikkim, reported higher voter tur nou percentages among women than men. COVERSTORY » HOW WOMEN VOTED 31 v Women voters showtheir identity ccardsas they waitin ‘2quaue to cast their votes during the sixth phase of the Lok Sabha ection, inVaishaidistict, Bihar, on May 25.rn Inat east 18 States or Union Territories, the turnout percentage of women was higher than the average turnout for the State. These in- ‘cluded West Bengal, Himachal Pradesh, Mani: pur, Puducherry, Kerala, Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Uttarakhand, and Nagaland. ‘Women electors in India have always been outnumbered by their male counterparts, although this gap has reduced over time. The percentage of women voters in the total elec torate increased from 48.1 per cent to 487 per cent between 2019 and 2024. This positive trend, one among several indicating the in- creasing significance of women in Indian elec tions, has however been somewhat neutral: ised by the decline in women's voting percentages in 2024. 'N 2024, the proportion of women voters declined significantly compared with 2019 in several States, including Uttarak- hand, Haryana, Kerala, Punjab, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Ta- mil Nadu, Delhi, and Manipur and several oth: er northeastern States. In Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh, voting ratios of wo- men declined even as that of men increased, While Jharkhand was the only State where the ‘opposite happened. On the other hand, in the few States that saw a rise in overall voting percentages, itis only in a handful, such as Karnataka and Chhattisgarh, that this could be attributed to a rise in voter turnout by women. In others, such as Maharashtra, ‘Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh, men outdid women in raising the voting ratios. ‘There is no apparent correlation between higher turnout of women and the election of women in those constituencies. In at least 17 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh, more wo- men than men voted, and in 33 constituen: cies, the percentage of women who voted was higher than that of men. In Uttar Pra- desh, where the average voter turnout was the second lowest after Bihar, Smriti Irani, a high-profile BJP candidate in Amethi, lost to the Congress’ K.L. Sharma by over one lakh votes. While Amethi recorded an average vo- ter turnout of 54.17 per cent, the turnout among women was 57.75 per cent, which was > JUNE, 2024