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APPROXIMATEINFERENCE
IN BAYESIAN
NETWORKS
NEED

exact inference is not feasible in large, multiply

connected networks
Likelihood Weighting

1. fixes the values for the evidence variables E and samples

only the non-evidence variables.
2. Not all events are equal, hence each event is weighted by
the likelihood that the event accords to the evidence, as
measured by the product of the conditional probabilities
for each evidence variable, given its parents
Example
Equations
Inference by Markov Chain Simulation

● Instead of generating each sample from scratch, MCMC

algorithms generate each sample by making a random change
to the preceding sample.
● For a current state it specifies a value for every
variable and generates a next state by making random
changes to the current state
Gibbs Sampling

● The Gibbs sampling algorithm for Bayesian networks starts

with an arbitrary state (with the evidence variables
fixed at their observed values)
● Generates a next state by randomly sampling a value for
one of the non-evidence variables Xi.
● The sampling for Xi is done conditioned on the current
values of the variables in the Markov blanket of Xi
Example
Cloudy Sprinkler Rain Wetgrass

Cloudy Sprinkler Rain Wetgrass

THANK YOU