‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ ﺍﻱ ﺑﺮ ﺍﺻﻮﻝ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻃﺮﺡ‬

‫ﻋﻠﻲ ﻳﻮﺳﻔﻲ‬
‫ﻋﻀﻮ ﻫﻴﺎﺕ ﻋﻠﻤﻲ ﮔﺮﻭﻩ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺭﻭﺳﺘﺎﻳﻲ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﮕﺎﻩ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻲ ﺍﺻﻔﻬﺎﻥ‬

‫‪http://ayousefi.iut.ac.ir‬‬
‫‪Email: ayousefi@cc.iut.ac.ir‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ ﻭ ﺷﻜﺴﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺘﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﺁﮔﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻓﺮﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻨﮕﺎﻫﻬﺎ ﺑﺴﺘﮕﻲ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻧﻘﻄﻪ ﺁﻏﺎﺯﻳﻦ ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺗﻼﺵ ﺁﮔﺎﻫﺎﻧﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻱ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ‪،‬‬

‫ﻓﺮﺍﻳﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺣﻞ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺩﺭ ﻓﺮﺍﻳﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪﻳﺎﺑﻲ‪ ،‬ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺍﺯﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺟﻤﻊﺁﻭﺭﻱ‬

‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺭﺍﻫﻜﺎﺭ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪ ،‬ﺁﮔﺎﻫﻲ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻜﻨﻴﻚﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺣﺎﺋﺰﺍﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﻃﺮﺡ ﻳﺎ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ )‪(Project‬‬
‫• ﻳﻚ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ ﺗﻼﺷﻲ ﻣﻮﻗﺘﻲ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻳﺎ ‪‬‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺘﻲ ﻳﻜﺘﺎ ﺍﺟﺮﺍ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺍﻗﺪﺍﻣﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﭘﻴﭽﻴﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻨﺤﺼﺮﺑﻔﺮﺩ‪ ،‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﺸﻜﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﻴﺘﻬﺎﻱ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﻭ ﻭﺍﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺍﺟﺮﺍﺋﻲ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻫﺪﻑ ﻳﺎ ﻫﺪﻓﻬﺎﻱ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ‪،‬‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﭼﺎﺭﭼﻮﺏ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻲ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺍﻱ ﺍﺟﺮﺍ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻜﻨﻴﻚ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺼـﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﻴـﺮﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻧﺘﺨـﺎﺏ‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻴﺎﻥ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺏ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬
‫ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﭘﻨﺞ ﻣﺤﻮﺭ ﺍﺻﻠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﻳﻚ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺸﺮﺡ ﺯﻳﺮ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫• ﺷﺮﺡ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ‬
‫• ﻓﺮﻣﻮﻝ ﺑﻨﺪﻱ ﻣﻌﻴﺎﺭﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮﭘﺬﻳﺮ‬
‫• ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﻫﺎ‬
‫• ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﻫﺎ‬
‫• ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ )ﻳﺎ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻫﺎ( ﺍﺯ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻞ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ‬

‫ﻣﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻛﻤﻴـﺖ ﻫـﺎﻱ ﻣـﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑـﺎ‬ ‫•‬

‫ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫&‬
 ‫ﺿﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ ﻫﺎ ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﺿﻮﺍﺑﻂ ﺫﻳﻞ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﺳﻮﺩ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻗﻞ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺭﻳﺴﻚ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻛﺮﺩﻥ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﻣﺘﻌﺎﺩﻝ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﻣﺘﻼﻃﻢ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺍﺭﺗﻘﺎء ﺍﻋﺘﺒﺎﺭ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺷﺮﻛﺖ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺍﻫﺪﺍﻑ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺍﻧﻲ ﻛﺎﺭﻛﻨﺎﻥ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫• ﺣﺪﺍﻛﺜﺮ ﻧﻤﻮﺩﻥ ﺍﻳﻤﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪‬‬
 ‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺴﺠﻲ‬

‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﺍﻱ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻨﻜﻪ‬

‫ﻛﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﻗﻌﻲ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺁﻏﺎﺯﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﺍﻓﺰﺍﻳﺶ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻝ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﻴﺖ‬
‫ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﻲ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺣﻠﻬﺎﻱ ﻣﻤﻜﻦ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺴﺎﻟﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮ‬

‫ﻣﻲ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﭼﺮﺍ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻲ‬
‫ﺩﻫﻴﻢ؟‬
 ‫‪1. ‬ﮐﺸﺘﺎﺭﮔﺎﻩ ﺩﺍﻡ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﻬﺎی ﻓﺎﻗﺪ ﮐﺸﺘﺎﺭﮔﺎﻩ‪.‬‬
‫‪2.‬ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﺟﺎﺕ ﺧﺸﮏ‪ ،‬ﺳﺒﺰﯾﺠﺎﺕ ﺧﺸﮏ ﻭ‪...‬‬
‫‪3.‬ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻟﺒﻨﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻥ ﻓﺎﻗﺪ ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬
‫‪4.‬ﺧﻤﻴﺮ ﻭ ﭘﻮﺭﻩ ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﻭ ﺳﺒﺰﯾﺠﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪5.‬ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺁﺑﻤﻴﻮﻩ ﺍﺯ ﮐﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ‪.‬‬
‫‪6.‬ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﺳﻴﺐ ﺯﻣﻴﻨﯽ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﯽ‪.‬‬
‫‪7.‬ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻧﺸﺎﺳﺘﻪ )ﮔﻠﻮﮐﻮﺯ ﻭ)‪...‬‬
‫‪8.‬ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﮐﻨﺴﺎﻧﺘﺮﻩ ﻣﻴﻮﻩ‬
‫‪9.‬ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﭘﮑﺘﻴﻦ ﺍﺯ ﭘﻮﺳﺖ ﻣﺮﮐﺒﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪10.‬ﺭﺏ ﮔﻮﺟﻪ ﻓﺮﻧﮕﯽ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﻫﺎی ﺍﺳﭙﺘﻴﮏ ﺩﺭ ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎﻧﻬﺎی ﻓﺎﻗﺪ‬
‫ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪11.‬ﺗﺨﻢ ﻣﺮﻍ ﻣﺎﯾﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪12.‬ﻏﺬﺍی ﮐﻮﺩک ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﯾﻪ ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﺟﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪13.‬ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﺎﻟﺖ ﻭ ﻣﺎءﺍﻟﺸﻌﻴﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪14.‬ﺧﻮﺭﺍک ﺩﺍﻡ ﻭ ﻃﻴﻮﺭ ﻭ ﺁﺑﺰﯾﺎﻥ ﺑﺼﻮﺭﺕ ﭘﻠﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪15.‬ﺷﻴﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﯾﺎ‬
‫‪16.‬ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺳﻮﯾﺎ )ﺷﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﭘﻨﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﺘﻨﯽ ﻭ)‪...‬‬
‫‪17.‬ﻫﻴﺪﺭﻭژﻧﻪ ﮐﺮﺩﻥ ﺭﻭﻏﻦ ﻧﺒﺎﺗﯽ‪.‬‬
‫‪18.‬ﻣﺮﺑﺎﺟﺎﺕ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﮐﻮﭼﮏ‪.‬‬
‫‪19.‬ﭼﻴﭙﺲ ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﻭ ﺳﺒﺰﯾﺠﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪20.‬ﻧﮑﺘﺎﺭ ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﺟﺎﺕ‬
 ‫‪21. ‬ﺁﺏ ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﮔﺎﺯﺩﺍﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪22.‬ﺷﺮﺑﺖ ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﺟﺎﺕ‬
‫‪23.‬ﺩﺭﺟﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﻭ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺧﺮﻣﺎ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪24.‬ﺩﮐﺴﺘﺮﻭﺯ‬
‫‪25.‬ﭘﻮﺩﺭ ﺗﺨﻢ ﻣﺮﻍ )ﺳﻔﻴﺪﻩ ﻭ ﺯﺭﺩﻩ)‬
‫‪26.‬ﻏﺬﺍی ﮐﻮﺩک‪.‬‬
‫‪27.‬ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﻋﺴﻞ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩ ﮐﻮﭼﮏ‪.‬‬
‫‪28.‬ﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﺧﻤﻴﺮ‬
‫‪29.‬ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﮔﻮﺷﺘﯽ‬
‫‪30.‬ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺣﺒﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﻭ ﮐﻨﺴﺮﻭ ﺣﺒﻮﺑﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺑﻠﻐﻮﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪31.‬ﭘﻮﺩﺭ ﻏﻴﺮ ﺧﻮﺭﺍﮐﯽ ﺍﺯ ﮔﻮﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺿﺎﯾﻌﺎﺕ ﮐﺸﺘﺎﺭﮔﺎﻩ‬
‫‪32.‬ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺧﺸﮑﺒﺎﺭ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﺁﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪33.‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﺗﺮﺷﻴﺠﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺷﻮﺭﯾﺠﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺑﺎﺟﺎﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪34.‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﻫﻮﯾﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪35.‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﺫﺭﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪36.‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺧﻼﻝ ﭘﻴﺎﺯ ﻭ ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭﺩﻩ ﻫﺎی ﺁﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪37.‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻋﺮﻗﻴﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺍﺳﺎﻧﺲ ﮔﻴﺎﻫﯽ‪.‬‬
‫‪38.‬ﮐﻨﺴﺮﻭ ﻏﺬﺍﻫﺎی ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ‪.‬‬
‫‪39.‬ﻏﺬﺍی ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ‪.‬‬
‫‪40.‬ﺑﺴﺘﻪ ﺑﻨﺪی ﻭ ﻓﺮﺁﻭﺭی ﻣﻴﻮﻩ ﺟﺎﺕ ﻭ ﺳﺒﺰﯾﺠﺎﺕ ﺑﻪ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﻧﺠﻤﺎﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪41.‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺳﺎﮐﺎﺭﻭﺯ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﺍﮐﺘﻮﺯ ﻭ ﻻﮐﺘﻮﺯ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﺁﻳﺎ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻳﻚ‬
‫ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‪/‬ﻃﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺻﺮﻓﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻳﺎ ﺧﻴﺮ‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﻩ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﻳﻚ ﻃﺮﺡ‬
‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ‬ ‫‪.1‬‬
‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﻳﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫‪.2‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻓﻨﻲ‬ ‫‪.3‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻲ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫‪.4‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫‪.5‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺯﻳﺴﺖ ﻣﺤﻴﻄﻲ‬ ‫‪.6‬‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻲ ﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫‪.7‬‬
 ‫ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻃﺮﺡ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻓﺮﺁﻳﻨﺪ ﻳﻜﭙﺎﺭﭼﻪﺍﻯ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺍﺣﻞ ﻣﺘﻮﺍﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺑﺎ ﭘﻴﺪﺍﻳﺶ ﻓﻜﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﺎﻻ ﻳﺎ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎ‬
‫ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻰ ﻓﻜﺮ ﻳﺎ ﻫﺴﺘﻪ ﻛﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﺡ‬
‫ﻋﻤﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺁﻏﺎﺯ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺩﺭ ﭘﻰ ﺁﻥ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻣﻴﺪﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻳﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ‬ ‫ﻃﺮﺡ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﭘﺬﻳﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻣﺮﺩﻭﺩ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻦ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺗﺠﺪﻳﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻭ ﺍﺻﻼﺡ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪13‬‬
 ‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻰ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻰ ﻃﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﮔﺮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻋﻤﺪﻩﺍﻯ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ؛ ﺯﻳﺮﺍ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻰ ﻧﻜﺎﺕ ﻛﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﺁﻥ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺻﺮﻑ ﻭﻗﺖ ﻭ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺍﻧﺪﻙ‪ ،‬ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻛﻠﻰ ﻭ ﻣﻬﻢ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﺁﻳﺪ ﺗﺎ ﻫﺮ ﮔﺎﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ‪،‬‬
‫ﻃﺮﺡ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺍﻣﻴﺪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺁﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬

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 ‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺑﻪ ﺩﻟﻴﻞ ﺁﻧﻜﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﺮ ﻭ ﭘﺮ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺢ ﺩﺍﺭﺩ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻭ‬
‫ﺍﺭﺯﺷﻴﺎﺑﻰ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﺻﻞ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﺭﺍ‪ ،‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪ ﺑﻴﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ‬
‫ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻰ ﻭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ ﻃﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻓﺮﻕ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻻﺯﻡ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻣﻔﺼﻞ ﻭ‬
‫ﺟﺰﻳﻰ ﮔﺮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻴﻬﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻣﻴﺪﺍﻧﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪ ،‬ﺣﺎﻝ ﺁﻥ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻛﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺰﺍﺭﺷﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻧﺸﺮﻳﺎﺕ ﻭ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﻬﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ‬
‫ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻭ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺻﻄﻼﺡ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺟﻨﺒﻪ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻴﻬﺎﻯ »ﺩﻓﺘﺮﻯ ﻭ‬
‫ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺨﺎﻧﻪﺍﻯ« ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﻋﻴﻦ ﺣﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ‬
‫ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﺒﻰ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮﺩ‬

‫‪15‬‬
 ‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻬﻰ ﺗﻔﺼﻴﻠﻰ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺗﻤﺎﻡ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻫﺪﻓﻬﺎﻯ ﻃﺮﺡ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﻓﻨﻰ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺮﺍﻩ ﺑﺎ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺷﻴﻮﻩﺍﻯ ﺳﻨﺠﻴﺪﻩ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﻭ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻰ )ﺭﻭﺷﻤﻨﺪ(‪ ،‬ﺍﺭﺍﺋﻪ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﻣﺘﻴﺎﺯ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺭﺍ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﺳﻮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺳﻮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﺪﺍﺯﻩﮔﻴﺮﻯ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺳﻮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻟﻰ‪ ،‬ﭘﻰﺁﻣﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺭﺍ ﺻﺮﻓﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺳﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺎﻥ‬
‫ﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺨﺶ ﺧﺼﻮﺻﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﺧﻮﺩ ﺍﻧﺘﻈﺎﺭ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻧﺸﺎﻥ ﻣﻰﺩﻫﺪ‪ .‬ﺳﻮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﻳﺪﻩ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﻣﻠﻰ ﻭ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻭ ﻫﺪﻓﻬﺎﻯ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻋﻤﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﭘﻨﺠﺴﺎﻟﻪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
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 ‫‪ ‬ﺩﺭ ﻫﺮ ﺩﻭ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ‪ ،‬ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﻭ ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺶ ﻛﻢ ﻭ ﺑﻴﺶ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﭼﻬﺎﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻛﻠﻰ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫‪ .1‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﻭ ﺯﻣﺎﻥﺑﻨﺪﻯ‬ ‫‪ .2‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭﻡ ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻓﻴﺰﻳﻜﻰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻃﺮﺡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎﻯ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻃﺮﺡ‬ ‫‪ .3‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺳﻮﻡ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻭ ﻓﺎﻳﺪﻩ ﺁﻥ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺳﻮﺩﻣﺎﻟﻰ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ‬ ‫‪ .4‬ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﭼﻬﺎﺭﻡ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺘﻮﺍﻥ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1 .5‬ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻳﻚ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﻫﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻃﺮﺡ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺎ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻃﺮﺣﻬﺎ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

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‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺎﻩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎﺕ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ ﺩﺭ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﺣﻴﺎﺕ‬
 ‫ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻲ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺁﻭﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫ﺳﺎﺑﻘﻪ ﻭ ﺗﺎﺭﻳﺨﭽﻪ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻡ ﻭ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺎﻧﻲ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻭﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺗﮑﺎء ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺍﺯ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻲ ﻳﺎ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻬﺎﻱ ﮐﻼﻥ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻱ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻭ ﻇﺮﻓﻴﺖ ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﺑﺮﺍﻱ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻲ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻇﺮﻓﻴﺖ ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻭﺭﻭﺩﻳﻬﺎﻱ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺧﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻗﻄﻌﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﻣﻠﺰﻭﻣﺎﺕ ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﺑﺮﻕ ﻭ ﺳﻮﺧﺖ‪... ،‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﺋﻲ ﻭ ﻣﺤﻞ ﻭﺍﺣﺪ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻲ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﮑﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﻮﺍﺩ ﺍﻭﻟﻴﻪ ﻭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﮐﺎﺭ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﺭﻱ ﻭ ﻧﺰﺩﻳﮑﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻭﻳﮋﮔﻴﻬﺎﻱ ﺁﺏ ﻭ ﻫﻮﺍﺋﻲ‬ ‫‪‬‬

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 ‫‪ ‬ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ )ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ(‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﻧﻮﺍﻉ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺗﻲ ﮐﻪ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺁﻭﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻃﺮﺡ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬
‫ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﻱ ﻓﻨﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻮﻉ ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ ﻭ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﺗﺸﮑﻴﻼﺗﻲ ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬
‫ﺳﺎﺯﻣﺎﻥ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻧﻴﺮﻭﻱ ﺍﻧﺴﺎﻧﻲ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺍﺟﺮﺍﻱ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﻧﺼﺐ ﻭ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﺪﺕ ﺯﻣﺎﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺁﺯﻣﺎﻳﺸﻲ ﻭ ﻭﺭﻭﺩ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ ﻧﻬﺎﺋﻲ‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬

‫ﺯﻣﻴﻦ ﻭ ﺁﻣﺎﺩﻩ ﺳﺎﺯﻱ ﻣﺤﻞ ﮐﺎﺭﺧﺎﻧﻪ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻭ ﺭﺍﻩ ﻭ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻥ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژﻱ ﻭ ﺗﺠﻬﻴﺰﺍﺕ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﺩﺭ ﮔﺮﺩﺵ‬ ‫ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪ ‬ﺍﻣﮑﺎﻧﺴﻨﺠﻲ )ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ(‬

‫‪ ‬ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ ﭘﺮﻭژﻩ‬

‫‪ ‬ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ ‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎﻣﻴﻦ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ ‬ﻧﺴﺒﺘﻬﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ ‬ﮐﻞ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎﺕ )ﺑﻬﺮﻩ ﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻱ(‬
‫ﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪ ‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻫﺎﻱ ﺳﺮﺑﺎﺯ ﺍﺩﺍﺭﻱ‬ ‫‪ ‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻫﺎﻱ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ‬ ‫‪ ‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬
‫ﻫﺎﻱ ﻣﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫‪ ‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻬﻼک‬ ‫‪ ‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬

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 ‫‪ .1‬ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‬

‫‪ ‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﺑﻰ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻭ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ ﺭﻓﻊ‬
‫ﺁﻥ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻯ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻋﻤﺮﺍﻧﻰ‪.‬‬

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 ‫‪ 1-1‬ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‬

‫‪ ‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﻭ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭ‬

‫ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻛﻤّﻰ ﻭ ﻛﻴﻔﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ‪،‬‬
‫ﮔﺮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ .‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﻪ ﺩﻭ ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﭘﻴﺶ ﻣﻰﺁﻳﺪ ‪:‬‬
‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﻃﺒﻘﻪﺑﻨﺪﻯ‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ ؟‬

‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﺭﺍ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺠﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ ؟‬ ‫‪-‬‬

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 ‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻛﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﻜﻢ(‬
‫ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ ﺑﻰ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻧﺎ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻃﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻛﺎﺭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺍﺭﺗﺒﺎﻃﻰ ﻧﺪﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﺟﻤﻊﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﻧﺸﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﻮﺿﻮﻉ ﮔﺮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﭘﻴﺶ‬ ‫ﺩﻭﻡ(‬

‫ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻡ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺎﻫﻴﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮ ﺷﻴﻮﻩ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺳﻮﻡ(‬

‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺁﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪26‬‬
 ‫ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺁﻭﺭی ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ )ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪،‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ‪(...‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﯽ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﻯ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻧﮕﺮﺵ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ )ﺭﻓﺘﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﺗﻤﺎﻳﻼﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻧﮕﻴﺰﻩﻫﺎ ﻭ ﻧﮕﺮﺵ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﻮﻩ ﺑﺮﺣﺴﺐ ﺟﻨﺴﻴﺖ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺳﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﺿﻊﺍﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻰ‪ ،‬ﺩﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﺘﻘﺎﺩﺍﺕ‪ ،‬ﺭﺳﻮﻡﻣﺤﻠﻰ(‬
‫ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ »ﻃﻴﻒ« ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ )ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﺍی‪ ،‬ﻧﻬﺎﯾﯽ(‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺟﻐﺮﺍﻓﻴﺎﻳﻰ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﻔﻜﻴﻚ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ‬ ‫‪‬‬

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 ‫ﻧﺤﻮﻩ ﺟﻤﻊ ﺁﻭﺭی ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬

‫‪ ‬ﺳﺮﻯ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻇﺮ ﺑﺎ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺟﻤﻊﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺗﻰ ﺩﺭ ﻣﺤﻞ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺧﺮﻳﺪﺍﺭ )ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻓﻮﺏ(‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻰ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬
‫ﺳﻴﻒ )ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﺑﻴﻤﻪ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﺍﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺣﻤﻞ(‪،‬‬
‫ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎﻯ ﻋﻤﺪﻩ ﻓﺮﻭﺷﻰ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺘﻬﺎﻯ ﺧﺮﺩﻩ ﻓﺮﻭﺷﻰ ﻃﻰ ﺩﻭﺭﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ‪.‬‬

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 ‫‪ 2-1‬ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﻯ ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‬

‫ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪1-2-1‬‬

‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻬﺎﻯ ﻓﻨﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫‪2-2-1‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫‪3-2-1‬‬
‫ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ‪.‬‬ ‫‪4-2-1‬‬
‫ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺳﻨﺠﻰ‪.‬‬ ‫‪5-2-1‬‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻴﻬﺎﻯ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ‪.‬‬ ‫‪6-2-1‬‬
‫ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ‬ ‫‪7-2-1‬‬
‫ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻯ‪.‬‬

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 ‫‪ 1-2-1‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎ ﺳﺎﺩﻩﺗﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺻﺮﻓﺎ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺧﻂ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ ﻣﻘﺎﺩﻳﺮ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎﻯ ﭘﻴﺶ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺳﭙﺲ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺧﻂ ﺍﻣﺘﺪﺍﺩ ﻳﺎﺑﺪ ﺗﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺑﻮﺩﻥ ﻓﺮﻣﻮﻝ ﺧﻂ ﻣﻴﺎﻧﻪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎﻯ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺭﺍ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺤﻮﺭ ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺎﺕ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﻳﻬﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺍﺟﺘﻨﺎﺏ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻧﺎ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻛﻮﺗﺎﻩ ﻣﺪﺕ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩﻯ ﺑﺮ ﺧﻂ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺷﻤﺎﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﺗﺎ ﺣﺪ ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ‬
‫ﺯﻳﺎﺩﺗﺮ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺮﺽ ﺿﻤﻨﻰ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ‪ ،‬ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺭﺷﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻭ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎﻯ ﻗﺒﻞ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﺎﻥ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻟﻬﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺷﺖ ﻭ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﻛﻠﻰ‪ ،‬ﻣﻴﺎﻧﮕﻴﻦ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮﺍﺕ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻳﺎﺩﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎﻥ ﺍﺩﺍﻣﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺍﺯ ﺩﻳﺪﮔﺎﻩ ﻋﻠﻤﻰ ﭼﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﻣﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪ ،‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻫﺮ ﺣﺎﻝ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺎﺗﻰ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻛﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪‬‬
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 ‫‪ 2-2-1‬ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻬﺎﻯ ﻓﻨﻰ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﺯ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻳﻰ‬
‫ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺁﻫﻦ‪ ،‬ﺳﻴﻤﺎﻥ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺕ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ ﺷﻴﻤﻴﺎﻳﻰ ﻭ ﻛﻮﺩ ﺷﻴﻤﻴﺎﻳﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺭﻭﺵ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻭﻳﮋﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻰ‬
‫ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﻌﻴﻦ ﻛﺎﻻﻯ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭ ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﻬﺎﻯ ﺟﺪﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻤﻴﺮ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻤﺎﻧﻬﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ‪،‬‬

‫ﻃﺮﺣﻬﺎﻯ ﺯﻳﺮﺑﻨﺎﻳﻰ‪ ،‬ﺍﺯ ﻗﺒﻴﻞ ﺟﺎﺩﻩﺳﺎﺯﻯ‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﺳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺍﺣﺪﺍﺙ ﭘﻞ ﻭ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎﻥ ﭘﺮﺍﻛﻨﺪﻩ ﻛﻮﭼﻚ‪ ،‬ﺩﺭ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻉ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺳﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﻰﺁﻭﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺁﮔﺎﻫﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ ﻭ ﺍﺣﺪﺍﺙ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ ﻳﺎﺩ ﺷﺪﻩ ﻭﺩﺭﺻﺪ ﺳﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺎﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺒﻨﺎﻯ ﺍﺳﺎﺳﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﻭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺳﻴﻤﺎﻥ ﺭﺍ ﻓﺮﺍﻫﻢ ﻣﻰﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩ ﺿﺮﻳﺒﻬﺎﻯ ﻓﻨﻰ ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ﻣﻴﺴﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻰ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻣﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪ‪ ،‬ﭘﻴﺸﺎﭘﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻴﻬﺎﻯ ﺧﺎﺹ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ‬
‫ﺷﺪﻩ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
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 ‫‪ 3-2-1‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ‪ ،‬ﻭﻗﺘﻰ ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ ﻛﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻧﻈﺮ ﺑﺎ ﺩﻗﺖ ﺑﺮﮔﺰﻳﺪﻩ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎ ﻭ‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ‪ ،‬ﺍﻋﻢ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻰ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﻄﻪﺍﻯ ﻭ ﻳﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﺍﻯ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻً ﺑﺎ ﻳﻚ ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ ﺯﻣﺎﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﻫﻨﮕﺎﻣﻰ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻗﺒﻮﻝ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬

‫ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﻄﺮﻭﺣﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻗﻌﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻳﻜﺪﻳﮕﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ‪.‬‬

‫‪ ‬ﺭﻭﺵ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺑﻴﻦﺍﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﺑﺎ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﻭ ﺿﺮﻭﺭﺕ‬

‫ﺩﻗﺖ ﺩﺭ ﻛﺎﺭﺑﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺳﻮﺩﻣﻨﺪﻯ ﺭﺍ ﺩﺭ ﺍﺧﺘﻴﺎﺭ ﻣﻰﮔﺬﺍﺭﺩ‪.‬‬
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 ‫‪ 4-2-1‬ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺻﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫‪ ‬ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎ ﻛﻨﻮﻥ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺍﺷﺎﺭﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﺮﻓﺖ ﻭ ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﻳﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺤﺚ‬
‫ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﻣﻰﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ‬
‫ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺍﻣﺎ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺕ ﮔﺮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﺁﻣﺎﺭ ﻭ ﺍﺭﻗﺎﻡ ﻭ‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻭ ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‪،‬‬
‫ﺩﻭﭼﻨﺪﺍﻥ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺷﺪ‪.‬‬

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 ‫‪ 4-2-1‬ﺍﻣﻜﺎﻥ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﻛﺎﻻﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻰ‬

‫ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﺭ‪ ،‬ﻧﺸﺎﻧﻪ ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻣﻘﺪﺍﺭ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻟﻰ ﻛﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻧﺨﺴﺖ ﺣﻘﻮﻕ ﻭ ﻋﻮﺍﺭﺽ‬
‫ﮔﻤﺮﻛﻰ ﺍﺯ ﺍﺭﺯﺵ ﻛﺎﻻﻯ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻰ ﻛﺴﺮ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﺳﭙﺲ‪ ،‬ﺭﻗﻢ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ‬
‫ﺁﻣﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍﻥ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﺟﻮﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﻨﻬﺎﻳﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻟﻰ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺕ ﺁﻥ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ ﻧﻤﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻼﻭﻩ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺄﻟﻪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻣﻄﺮﺡ ﺍﺳﺖ‪ .‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﺒﺎﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮﺭ ﺍﺻﻮﻟﻰ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍﺗﻰ ﻛﺎﻻﻯ ﻣﺸﺎﺑﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺍﺯ ﺳﻮﻯ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺍﺯ ﻭﺍﻛﻨﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺎ ﺧﺒﺮ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

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 ‫‪ 5-2-1‬ﺭﻭﺷﻬﺎﻯ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺳﻨﺠﻰ‬
‫)ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺪﻟﻬﺎی ﺗﮏ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻩ ﻭ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﻴﺮﻩ‬
‫ﺳﺮی ﺯﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﻭ ﻣﻌﺎﻻﺕ ﻣﻘﻌﯽ ﻧﻈﻴﺮ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﺑﻮﺩﺟﻪ ﺧﺎﻧﻮﺍﺭ(‬

‫‪ -‬ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‪.‬‬

‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫ﺭﺍﺑﻄﻪ ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎﻥ ﺑﻴﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻭ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﻭ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫‪-‬‬

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 ‫‪ 6-2-1‬ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪﻭﻥ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺩﺳﺖ ﺩﺍﺷﺘﻦ ﺍﻃﻼﻋﺎﺕ ﺁﻣﺎﺭﻯ‬

‫‪ ‬ﭘﻴﺶﺑﻴﻨﻰ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ‬

‫ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﻮﻉ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‪ ،‬ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺶ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺍﻯ ﻣﺜﺎﻝ ﺳﻔﺎﺭﺵ ﺍﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻭﺯﺍﺭﺗﺨﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻳﺎ ﺷﻤﺎﺭ ﺩﺍﻧﺶﺁﻣﻮﺯﺍﻥ ﻭ ﺩﺍﻧﺸﺠﻮﻳﺎﻥ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻧﺮﺥ ﺷﻬﺮﻧﺸﻴﻨﻰ ﻭ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻤﻞ ﺁﻳﺪ‪ .‬ﮔﺎﻩ‬
‫ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﺑﺎ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻴﻬﺎﻯ ﺧﺎﺹ ﻣﻮﺭﺩﻯ ﻭ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻛﻢ‪،‬‬
‫ﺟﻬﺘﻬﺎﻯ ﻛﻠﻰ ﻣﺼﺮﻑ ﺭﺍ ﺑﻪ ﺩﺳﺖ ﺁﻭﺭﺩ‪.‬‬

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 ‫‪ ‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻫﺪﻓﻬﺎﻯ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻣﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺴﻴﺎﺭﻯ ﺍﺯ ﻛﺸﻮﺭﻫﺎﻯ ﺩﺭ ﺣﺎﻝ ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ‪ ،‬ﻇﺮﻓﻴﺖ ﻃﺮﺣﻬﺎﻯ‬
‫ﻋﻤﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻻﻳﻞ ﻓﻨﻰ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻً ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﻧﺎﭼﺎﺭ ﺑﻴﺶ ﺍﺯ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﻣﻮﺟﻮﺩ ﺩﺭ ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻰ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‪،‬‬
‫ﺁﮔﺎﻫﻰ ﺍﺯ ﻫﺪﻓﻬﺎﻯ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺍﺭﺯﺷﻤﻨﺪﺗﺮ ﺍﺯ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻭ ﺑﺮﺭﺳﻰ ﻭﺿﻊ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺍﺳﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻣﻮﺍﺭﺩ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺗﻮﺍﻥ ﻫﺪﻓﻬﺎﻯ ﺍﻋﻼﻡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻋﻤﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺭﺍ ﻣﺒﻨﺎﻯ ﺑﺮﺍﻭﺭﺩ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ‬
‫)ﻛﺎﻻ ﻳﺎ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ( ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﺩﺍﺩ ﻭ ﺩﻳﮕﺮ ﻧﻴﺎﺯﻯ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭ ﺑﺮﺍﺳﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺷﻴﻮﻩﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻭﺕ ﻧﺨﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ‪ ،‬ﻋﻼﻗﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﺖ ﺑﻪ‬
‫ﺍﻳﻦ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺮﺩﻡ ﺍﺯ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻳﺎ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺧﺎﺻﻰ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻛﺎﻻﻯ‬
‫ﺑﻬﺪﺍﺷﺘﻰ ﻭ ﺧﺪﻣﺎﺕ ﭘﻴﺸﮕﻴﺮﻯ ﺍﺯ ﺑﻴﻤﺎﺭﻳﻬﺎﻯ ﻭﺍﮔﻴﺮﺩﺍﺭ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﻣﻨﺪ‬
‫ﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﺎﺋﻖ ﻭ ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
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 ‫‪ -3‬ﺑﻰ ﺍﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎﻧﻰ ﻭ ﭼﮕﻮﻧﮕﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺮﺧﻮﺭﺩ ﺑﺎ ﺁﻥ‬

‫‪ ‬ﻫﺪﻑ ﻧﻬﺎﻳﻰ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪ ﺑﻬﺮﻩﺑﺮﺩﺍﺭﻯ ﻛﻨﻨﺪﻩ ﺍﺯ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﻧﺘﻔﺎﻋﻰ‬

‫ﻋﻤﺮﺍﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﺗﺤﺼﻴﻞ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﺩﺭ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ‬
‫ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﻓﺮﻭﺵ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺩﺭﻭﺍﻗﻊ ﻳﮕﺎﻧﻪ ﺭﺍﻩ ﺍﻳﺠﺎﺩ ﺩﺭﺁﻣﺪ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻭ‬
‫ﺑﺎ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎﺩﻩ ﺍﺯ ﺁﻥ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺟﺒﺮﺍﻥ ﺷﻮﺩ ﻭ ﻳﻚ‬
‫ﺑﺎﺯﺩﻩ ﻣﻌﻘﻮﻝ ﻣﻄﻤﺌﻦ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ ﺳﻮﺩ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ ﺷﻮﺩ؛ ﺩﺭ‬
‫ﻏﻴﺮ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺭﺕ‪ ،‬ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬﺍﺭﻯ ﻣﺮﺑﻮﻁ ﻧﺎﻣﻮﺟﻪ ﺧﻮﺍﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﺩ‪.‬‬
‫ﭘﺲ ﺑﻪ ﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﺮﺗﻴﺐ‪ ،‬ﭘﺮﺳﺶ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺷﺪﻩ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺤﺖ‬
‫ﺑﺪﺑﻴﻨﺎﻧﻪﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺁﻳﺎ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻋﻤﺮﺍﻧﻰ ﺍﻧﺘﻔﺎﻋﻰ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻴﻪ‬
‫ﻫﺴﺖ ﻳﺎ ﺧﻴﺮ ؟‬

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 ‫‪ -4‬ﮔﺰﻳﻨﺶ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻯ‬
‫‪ ‬ﭘﺲ ﺍﺯ ﮔﺮﺩﺁﻭﺭﻯ ﻭ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﻛﻤّﻰ ﻭ ﻛﻴﻔﻰ ﻣﻮﺛﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻧﻴﺎﺯ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ ،‬ﻭﺿﻊ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﻛﻨﻮﻧﻰ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ ﺍﺭﺯﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻣﻰﺷﻮﺩ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭ ﺭﻭﻧﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎﻯ ﺁﻳﻨﺪﻩ ﺁﻥ ﺑﺎ ﻋﻨﺎﻳﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮﺍﻳﻂ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﺮ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ ﻳﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻴﺎﺯ‪ ،‬ﺗﻌﻴﻴﻦ ﻭ ﻣﺸﺨﺺ ﻣﻰﮔﺮﺩﺩ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﮔﺎﻡ ﺑﻌﺪﻯ‪ ،‬ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺎﺛﻴﺮ »ﺭﻭﻳﺪﺍﺩﻫﺎ« ﺑﺮﺍﻳﻦ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﺩ ﻭ ﻫﺪﻑ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻯ ﻃﺮﺡ ﺍﻧﺘﺨﺎﺏ ﺷﻮﺩ‪ .‬ﺍﻧﺠﺎﻡ ﺍﻳﻦ‬
‫ﻛﺎﺭ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺘﻠﺰﻡ ﺁﻥ ﺍﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻮﺍﻣﻞ ﺯﻳﺮ ﺑﺮ ﭘﺎﻳﻪ ﻓﺮﺿﻴﻪﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬
‫ﺩﺭ ﺑﺎﺭﻩ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺑﺮ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﻴﺰﺍﻥ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻫﺎﻯ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‪ ،‬ﻣﻮﺭﺩ‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﻪ ﻗﺮﺍﺭ ﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎﺭ ﻋﺮﺿﻪ؛ ﻳﻌﻨﻰ ﻭﺿﻊ ﻭ ﺷﺪﺕ ﺭﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪﻫﺎﻯ‬
‫ﺩﺍﺧﻠﻰ ﻭ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻰ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﻛﻴﻔﻴﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﻃﺮﺡ ﻭ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻝ ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﻪﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ ‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﻬﺎﻯ ﺗﻮﺯﻳﻊ ﻭ ﺑﺎﺯﺍﺭﻳﺎﺑﻰ ﻣﻮﺭﺩ ﻧﻈﺮ‪.‬‬
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