-- 165 --

In Figure 7.1 we showed how the strengths of the three nongravitational couplings merge together when the temperature of the
universe is high enough. How does the strength of the gravitational force fit into this picture? Before the emergence of M-theory,
string theorists were able to show that with the simplest of choices for the Calabi-Yau component of space, the gravitational force
almost, but not quite, merges with the other three, as shown in Figure 14.2. String theorists found that the mismatch could be
avoided by carefully molding the shape of the chosen Calabi-Yau, among other tricks of the trade, but such after-the-fact fine
tuning always makes a physicist uncomfortable. Since no one currently knows how to predict the precise form of the Calabi-Yau
dimensions, it seems dangerous to rely upon solutions to problems that hinge so delicately on the fine details of their shape.

Witten has shown, however, that the second superstring revolution provides a
far more robust solution. By investigating how the strengths of the forces
vary when the string coupling constant is not necessarily small, Witten found
that the gravitational force curve can be gently nudged to merge with the
other forces, as in Figure 14.2, without any special molding of the Calabi-
Yau portion of space. Although it is far too early to tell, this may indicate
that cosmological unity is more easily achieved by making use of the larger
framework of M-theory.

The developments discussed in this and the previous sections represent the
first, somewhat tentative steps toward understanding the cosmological
implications of string/M-theory. During the coming years, as the
nonperturbative tools of string/M-theory are sharpened, physicists anticipate
that some of the most profound insights will emerge from their application to
cosmological questions.

But without currently having methods that are sufficiently powerful to

understand cosmology according to string theory fully, it is worthwhile to
think about some general considerations concerning the possible role of
cosmology in the search for the ultimate theory. We caution that some of Figure 14.2 Within M-theory, the strengths of
these ideas are of a more speculative nature than much of what we have all four forces can naturally merge.
discussed previously, but they do raise issues that any purported final theory
may one day have to address.

Cosmological Speculation and the Ultimate Theory

Cosmology has the ability to grab hold of us at a deep, visceral level because an understanding of how things began feels—at least
to some—like the closest we may ever come to understanding why they began. That is not to say that modern science provides a
connection between the question of how and the question of why—it doesn't—and it may well be that no such scientific connection
is ever found. But the study of cosmology does hold the promise of giving us our most complete understanding of the arena of the
why—the birth of the universe—and this at least allows for a scientifically informed view of the frame within which the questions
are asked. Sometimes attaining the deepest familiarity with a question is our best substitute for actually having the answer.

In the context of searching for the ultimate theory, these lofty reflections on cosmology give way to far more concrete
considerations. The way things in the universe appear to us today—way on the far right-hand side of the time line in Figure 14.1—
depends upon the fundamental laws of physics, to be sure, but it may also depend on aspects of cosmological evolution, from the
far left-hand side of the time line, that potentially lie outside the scope of even the deepest theory.

It's not hard to imagine how this might be. Think of what happens, for example, when you toss a ball in the air. The laws of gravity
govern the ball's subsequent motion, but we can't predict where the ball will land exclusively from those laws. We must also know
the velocity of the ball—its speed and direction—as it left your hand. That is, we must know the initial conditions of the ball's
motion. Similarly, there are features of the universe that also have a historical contingency—the reason why a star formed here or a
planet there depends upon a complicated chain of events that, at least in principle, we can imagine tracing back to some feature of
how the universe was when it all began. But it is possible that even more basic features of the universe, perhaps even the properties
of the fundamental matter and force particles, also have a direct dependence on historical evolution—evolution that itself is
contingent upon the initial conditions of the universe.

In fact, we've already noted one possible incarnation of this idea in string theory: As the hot, early universe evolved, the extra
dimensions may have transmuted from shape to shape, ultimately settling down to one particular Calabi-Yau space once things had