FINANCIAL

MODELING REPORT

BSE: 500790
NSE: NESTLEIND

Vikramjeet singh
Kumar

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 INDEX

❖HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT

❖Ratio Analysis

❖Forecasting

❖Regression Beta - 2 Year Weekly

❖Weighted Average Cost of Capital

❖COMPARABLE COMPANY VALUATION

❖DCF Valuation

❖Monte Carlo Simulation

❖Dupont Analysis - Return on Equity &

Return on Asset

❖Altman's Z score Analysis

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT

Narration Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24

Sales 3,747.98 3,992.64 4,045.69 4,601.84 4,256.79 4,830.53 4,658.53 5,036.82 4,600.42 5,267.59

Expenses 2,889.29 3,071.69 3,231.16 3,597.76 3,283.78 3,735.05 3,603.01 3,811.95 3,505.30 3,918.77

Operating Profit 858.69 920.95 814.53 1,004.08 973.01 1,095.48 1,055.52 1,224.87 1,095.12 1,348.82

Other Income -209.14 21.44 19.37 30.64 29.55 33.69 23.95 139.69 -77.00 36.83

Depreciation 105.96 104.51 101.68 98.17 98.66 101.70 107.36 111.16 108.69 108.87

Interest 43.59 35.58 36.97 37.19 44.83 37.01 32.78 31.38 22.95 26.20

Profit before tax 500.00 802.30 695.25 899.36 859.07 990.46 939.33 1,222.02 886.48 1,250.58

Tax 120.52 211.53 185.01 237.90 231.01 253.82 240.99 313.94 230.87 316.41

Net profit 379.48 590.77 510.24 661.46 628.06 736.64 698.34 908.08 655.61 934.17

OPM 23% 20% 22% 23% 23% 23% 24% 24% 26%

Narration Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Equity Share Capital 96.42 96.42 96.42 96.42 96.42 96.42 96.42 96.42 96.42 96.42
Reserves 2740.79 2721.42 3185.91 3324.17 3577.32 1822.45 1922.92 1849.96 2362.75 2362.75
Borrowings 19.57 17.73 33.15 35.14 35.14 188.94 147.49 266.46 270.52 270.52
Other Liabilities 2962.72 3250.76 3494.98 3906.86 4379.20 5065.13 5732.90 6021.29 6249.05 6249.05
Total 5819.50 6086.33 6810.46 7362.59 8088.08 7172.94 7899.73 8234.13 8978.74 8978.74

Net Block 3176.64 2897.85 2730.14 2616.18 2400.62 2341.45 2179.41 2994.67 3043.70 3043.70
Capital Work in Progress 244.78 230.79 188.17 94.16 105.20 143.30 638.58 246.23 358.36 358.36
Investments 811.82 1324.92 1755.66 1978.87 2658.49 1751.05 1463.77 773.98 777.54 777.54
Other Assets 1586.26 1632.77 2136.49 2673.38 2923.77 2937.14 3617.97 4219.25 4799.14 4799.14
Total 5819.50 6086.33 6810.46 7362.59 8088.08 7172.94 7899.73 8234.13 8978.74 8978.74

Working Capital -1376.46 -1617.99 -1358.49 -1233.48 -1455.43 -2127.99 -2114.93 -1802.04 -1449.91 -1449.91
Debtors 99.10 78.42 97.93 88.97 124.59 124.33 164.93 165.97 191.89 191.89
Inventory 844.10 820.81 940.06 902.47 965.55 1283.07 1416.48 1592.65 1928.77 1928.77

Debtor Days 3.67 3.50 3.91 3.24 4.03 3.67 4.51 4.11 4.15 3.66
Inventory Turnover 11.67 9.96 9.72 11.09 11.70 9.64 9.42 9.26 8.76 9.92

Return on Equity 0.42 0.20 0.31 0.36 0.44 1.03 1.03 1.09 0.97 1.22
Return on Capital Emp 0.29 0.53 0.57 0.71 0.96 1.39 1.40 1.38 1.52

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT

Years Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 LTM

Income statement
Sale ₹9,854.84 ₹8,175.31 ₹9,141.34 ₹10,009.60 ₹11,292.27 ₹12,368.90 ₹13,350.03 ₹14,740.59 ₹16,896.96 ₹19,126.30 19563.36
SaleGrowth -17% 12% 9% 13% 10% 8% 10% 15% 13% 2%

COGS ₹5,942.45 ₹4,774.26 ₹5,204.81 ₹5,821.16 ₹6,241.40 ₹7,003.97 ₹7,687.40 ₹8,521.15 ₹10,221.70 ₹10,281.89 ₹0.00
COGS % Sale 60% 58% 57% 58% 55% 57% 58% 58% 60% 54% 0%
Gross profit ₹3,912.39 ₹3,401.05 ₹3,936.53 ₹4,188.44 ₹5,050.87 ₹5,364.93 ₹5,662.63 ₹6,219.44 ₹6,675.26 ₹8,844.41 ₹19,563.36
Gross Margin 39.70% 41.60% 43.06% 41.84% 44.73% 43.37% 42.42% 42.19% 39.51% 46.24% 100.00%

Selling & General Expenses ₹1,873.14 ₹1,846.12 ₹2,086.69 ₹2,091.91 ₹2,433.22 ₹2,439.05 ₹2,461.13 ₹2,657.04 ₹2,968.97 ₹4,373.42 ₹0.00
S&G Exp% Sales 19% 23% 23% 21% 22% 20% 18% 18% 18% 23% 0%

EBITDA ₹2,039.25 ₹1,554.93 ₹1,849.84 ₹2,096.53 ₹2,617.65 ₹2,925.88 ₹3,201.50 ₹3,562.40 ₹3,706.29 ₹4,470.99 ₹4,298.41
EBITDA Margin 20.69% 19.02% 20.24% 20.95% 23.18% 23.66% 23.98% 24.17% 21.93% 23.38% 21.97%

Interest ₹43.59 ₹35.58 ₹36.97 ₹37.19 ₹44.83 ₹37.01 ₹32.78 ₹31.38 ₹22.95 ₹26.20 ₹113.31
Interest % Sales 0.44% 0.44% 0.40% 0.37% 0.40% 0.30% 0.25% 0.21% 0.14% 0.14% 0.58%

Depreciation ₹337.54 ₹347.26 ₹353.67 ₹342.25 ₹335.67 ₹370.15 ₹370.38 ₹391.02 ₹403.01 ₹428.91 ₹1,593.32
Depreciation % Sales 3.43% 4.25% 3.87% 3.42% 2.97% 2.99% 2.77% 2.65% 2.39% 2.24% 8.14%

Earning Before TAX ₹1,658.12 ₹1,172.09 ₹1,459.20 ₹1,717.09 ₹2,237.15 ₹2,518.72 ₹2,798.34 ₹3,140.00 ₹3,280.33 ₹4,015.88 ₹2,591.78
EBT % Sales 16.83% 14.34% 15.96% 17.15% 19.81% 20.36% 20.96% 21.30% 19.41% 21.00% 13.25%

Tax ₹589.66 ₹250.36 ₹544.02 ₹614.11 ₹822.02 ₹705.05 ₹730.36 ₹738.91 ₹865.45 ₹1,039.62 ₹3,374.34
Effective Tax Rate 36% 21% 37% 36% 37% 28% 26% 24% 26% 26% 130%

Net Profit ₹1,068.46 ₹921.73 ₹915.18 ₹1,102.98 ₹1,415.13 ₹1,813.67 ₹2,067.98 ₹2,401.09 ₹2,414.88 ₹2,976.26 -₹782.56
Net Margin 11% 11% 10% 11% 13% 15% 15% 16% 14% 16% -4%

No. of Equity Share ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹0.00

Earning Per Share ₹11.08 ₹9.56 ₹9.49 ₹11.44 ₹14.68 ₹18.81 ₹21.45 ₹24.90 ₹25.05 ₹30.87 ₹0.00
EPS GROWTH % -0.23015886 0.298969293 0.365067084 0.337212528 1.973909436 -0.41520397 0 0.1 -1 0

Divident Per Share ₹0.0000063 ₹0.0000049 ₹0.0000063 ₹0.0000086 ₹0.0000115 ₹0.0000342 ₹0.0000200 ₹0.0000200 ₹0.0000220 ₹0.0000000 ₹0.0000000
Dividend Payout ratio 0.000057% 0.000051% 0.000066% 0.000075% 0.000078% 0.000182% 0.000093% 0.000080% 0.000088% 0.000000% 0.000000%

Retained Earnings 99.99937% 99.99951% 99.99937% 99.99914% 99.99885% 99.99658% 99.99800% 99.99800% 99.99780% 100.00000% 100.00000%

# Balance sheet
Equity Share Capital ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42 ₹96.42
Reserves ₹2,740.79 ₹2,721.42 ₹3,185.91 ₹3,324.17 ₹3,577.32 ₹1,822.45 ₹1,922.92 ₹1,849.96 ₹2,362.75 ₹2,362.75
Borrowings ₹19.57 ₹17.73 ₹33.15 ₹35.14 ₹35.14 ₹188.94 ₹147.49 ₹266.46 ₹270.52 ₹270.52
Other Liabilities ₹2,962.72 ₹3,250.76 ₹3,494.98 ₹3,906.86 ₹4,379.20 ₹5,065.13 ₹5,732.90 ₹6,021.29 ₹6,249.05 ₹6,249.05
Total Liability ₹5,819.50 ₹6,086.33 ₹6,810.46 ₹7,362.59 ₹8,088.08 ₹7,172.94 ₹7,899.73 ₹8,234.13 ₹8,978.74 ₹8,978.74

Fixed assest net block ₹3,176.64 ₹2,897.85 ₹2,730.14 ₹2,616.18 ₹2,400.62 ₹2,341.45 ₹2,179.41 ₹2,994.67 ₹3,043.70 ₹3,043.70
Capital Work in Progress ₹244.78 ₹230.79 ₹188.17 ₹94.16 ₹105.20 ₹143.30 ₹638.58 ₹246.23 ₹358.36 ₹358.36
Investments ₹811.82 ₹1,324.92 ₹1,755.66 ₹1,978.87 ₹2,658.49 ₹1,751.05 ₹1,463.77 ₹773.98 ₹777.54 ₹777.54
Other Assets ₹197.24 ₹233.99 ₹218.50 ₹224.52 ₹223.57 ₹221.69 ₹266.69 ₹1,725.22 ₹1,732.93 ₹1,732.93
Total Non Current Assests ₹4,430.48 ₹4,687.55 ₹4,892.47 ₹4,913.73 ₹5,387.88 ₹4,457.49 ₹4,548.45 ₹5,740.10 ₹5,912.53 ₹5,912.53

Receivables 99.1 78.42 97.93 88.97 124.59 124.33 164.93 165.97 191.89 191.89
Inventory 844.1 820.81 940.06 902.47 965.55 1283.07 1416.48 1592.65 1928.77 1928.77
Cash & Bank 445.82 499.55 880 1457.42 1610.06 1308.05 1769.87 735.41 945.55 945.55
Total Current Assent 1389.02 1398.78 1917.99 2448.86 2700.2 2715.45 3351.28 2494.03 3066.21 3066.21

Total assets 5819.5 6086.33 6810.46 7362.59 8088.08 7172.94 7899.73 8234.13 8978.74 8978.74

Check TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 HISTORICAL FINANCIAL STATEMENT
# Cash Flow Statement
Cash From operating Activity
Profit from operations 2,051.0 1,109.0 1,765.0 2,047.0 2,521.0 2,805.0 3,061.0 3,136.0 3,609.0 4,388.0
Receivables (14.0) 21.0 (19.0) 8.0 (36.0) 0.0 (42.0) (2.0) (28.0) (11.0)
Inventory (108.0) 23.0 (119.0) 38.0 (63.0) (318.0) (133.0) (169.0) (336.0) 56.0
Payables 118.0 79.0 50.0 185.0 257.0 253.0 23.0 217.0 178.0 68.0
Loans Advances 34.0 (3.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (40.0) (30.0) (30.0)
Operating borrowings 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other WC items 153.0 210.0 293.0 144.0 255.0 227.0 249.0 (179.0) 185.0 (19.0)
Working capital changes 182.0 332.0 204.0 375.0 413.0 163.0 97.0 (172.0) (30.0) 63.0
Direct taxes (589.0) (342.0) (503.0) (604.0) (881.0) (673.0) (703.0) (729.0) (841.0) (1,059.0)
Cash From operating Activit 2,416.0 1,773.0 2,174.0 2,797.0 3,347.0 3,130.0 3,255.0 2,791.0 3,548.0 4,515.0

Investing Activites
Fixed assets purchased -₹415.00 -₹151.00 -₹207.00 -₹199.00 -₹166.00 -₹155.00 -₹478.00 -₹735.00 -₹550.00 -₹1,371.00
Fixed assets sold ₹10.00 ₹1.00 ₹94.00 ₹3.00 ₹3.00 ₹2.00 ₹4.00 ₹4.00 ₹9.00 ₹7.00
Investments purchased -₹80.00 -₹37.00 -₹153.00 -₹112.00 -₹160.00 -₹16.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Investments sold ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹25.00 ₹312.00
Interest received ₹66.00 ₹99.00 ₹126.00 ₹154.00 ₹237.00 ₹238.00 ₹148.00 ₹125.00 ₹103.00 ₹0.00
Dividends received ₹10.00 ₹12.00 ₹13.00 ₹16.00 ₹19.00 ₹13.00 ₹2.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Other investing items -₹23.00 ₹6.00 ₹1.00 ₹7.00 ₹15.00 ₹0.00 ₹3.00 -₹1,314.00 ₹20.00 ₹126.00
Cash From Investing Activity -432 -70 -126 -131 -52 82 -321 -1920 -393 -926

Financing Activity
Proceeds from borrowings ₹34.00 ₹0.00 ₹4.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹24.00
Repayment of borrowings ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 -₹3.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 -₹24.00
Investment subsidy ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00
Interest paid fin -₹30.00 -₹36.00 -₹15.00 -₹3.00 -₹4.00 -₹1.00 -₹4.00 -₹63.00 -₹69.00 -₹9.00
Dividends paid -₹467.00 -₹468.00 -₹607.00 -₹410.00 -₹564.00 -₹829.00 -₹1,090.00 -₹2,950.00 -₹1,890.00 -₹1,928.00
Financial liabilities ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 ₹0.00 -₹79.00
Other financing items -₹51.00 -₹76.00 -₹1,017.00 -₹82.00 -₹98.00 -₹167.00 -₹224.00 -₹588.00 ₹3.00 -₹3.00
Cash From Investing Activity -₹514.00 -₹580.00 -₹1,635.00 -₹498.00 -₹666.00 -₹997.00 -₹1,318.00 -₹3,601.00 -₹1,956.00 -₹2,019.00

Net Cash Flow 1470 1123 413 2168 2629 2215 1616 -2730 1199 1570

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Ratio Analysis-NESTLE INDIA LTD

Year Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Trend Mean Median

Sales Growth -17.04% 11.82% 9.50% 12.81% 9.53% 7.93% 10.42% 14.63% 7.45% 9.98%
EBITDA Growth -23.75% 18.97% 13.34% 24.86% 11.78% 9.42% 11.27% 4.04% 8.74% 11.52%
EBIT Growth -29.31% 24.50% 17.67% 30.29% 12.59% 11.10% 12.21% 4.47% 10.44% 12.40%
Net profit Growth -13.73% -0.71% 20.52% 28.30% 28.16% 14.02% 16.11% 0.57% 11.66% 15.06%
Dividend Growth -23.02% 29.90% 36.51% 33.72% 197.39% -41.52% 0.00% 10.00% 30.37% 19.95%

Gross Margin 39.7% 41.6% 43.1% 41.8% 44.7% 43.4% 42.4% 42.2% 39.5% 42.05% 42.30%
EBITDA Margin 20.7% 19.0% 20.2% 20.9% 23.2% 23.7% 24.0% 24.2% 21.9% 21.98% 22.56%
EBIT Margin 17.3% 14.8% 16.4% 17.5% 20.2% 20.7% 21.2% 21.5% 19.5% 18.79% 19.88%
EBT Margin 16.8% 14.3% 16.0% 17.2% 19.8% 20.4% 21.0% 21.3% 19.4% 18.46% 19.61%
Net Profit Margin 10.8% 11.3% 10.0% 11.0% 12.5% 14.7% 15.5% 16.3% 14.3% 12.93% 13.41%

Sales Expenes % Sales 19.01% 22.58% 22.83% 20.90% 21.55% 19.72% 18.44% 18.03% 17.57% 20.07% 20.31%
Deprciation % Sales 3.43% 4.25% 3.87% 3.42% 2.97% 2.99% 2.77% 2.65% 2.39% 3.19% 2.98%
Operating income % Sales 17.27% 14.77% 16.37% 17.53% 20.21% 20.66% 21.21% 21.51% 19.55% 18.79% 19.88%

Return on Capital Employe 59.57% 42.59% 45.13% 50.76% 61.53% 121.25% 130.66% 143.32% 121.01% 86.20% 91.27%
Reained Earning % 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Return on Equity % 37.66% 32.71% 27.88% 32.25% 38.52% 94.52% 102.41% 123.36% 98.20% 65.28% 66.52%
Self Sustaied Growth Rate 37.66% 32.71% 27.88% 32.25% 38.52% 94.51% 102.41% 123.36% 98.20% 65.28% 66.52%
Interest Coverage Ratio 0.39X 0.34X 0.40X 0.47X 0.51X 0.69X 0.86X 1.01X 1.44X 67.99% 59.98%

Debtor Turnover Ratio -703.92X 389.30X -481.12X 1251.20X -313.67X 0.00X -317.86X -7370.30X -603.46X -905.5x -315.8x
Creditor Turniver Ratio 3.33X 2.51X 2.62X 2.56X 2.58X 2.44X 2.33X 2.45X 2.70X 2.6x 2.5x
Inventory Turnover 11.67X 9.96X 9.72X 11.09X 11.70X 9.64X 9.42X 9.26X 8.76X 10.1x 9.7x
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.10X 2.82X 3.35X 3.83X 4.70X 5.28X 6.13X 4.92X 5.55X 4.4x 4.8x
Capital Turnover Capital 3.47X 2.90X 2.79X 2.93X 3.07X 6.45X 6.61X 7.57X 6.87X 4.7x 4.8x

(In Day )
Debtor Days -0.5 0.9 -0.8 0.3 -1.2 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3
Payable Days 109.7 145.1 139.5 142.5 141.5 149.5 156.7 149.1 135.0 141.0 143.8
Invemntory Days 31.3 36.6 37.5 32.9 31.2 37.9 38.7 39.4 41.7 36.4 37.7
Cash Conversion Cycle -79.0 -107.6 -102.8 -109.3 -111.5 -111.6 -119.2 -109.7 -93.9 -104.9 -109.5

CFO/Sales 17% 13% 16% 18% 18% 19% 18% 15% 16% 17.% 17%
CFO/Total Asset 28% 18% 22% 25% 25% 32% 31% 27% 30% 27.% 26%
CFO/Total Debt 84.01% 61.93% 44.22% 51.73% 58.41% 12.15% 16.64% 8.39% 10.12% 44% 30%

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Forecasting
Sales Forcasting-NESTLE INDIA LTD Nestle EBITDA-NESTLE INDIA LTD Nestle EPS-NESTLE INDIA LTD
Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth Year Weight Year Sales Sales Growth
1 2014A 9,855 1 2014A 2039.25 1 2014A 11.08
2 2015A 8,175 -17.04% 2 2015A 1554.93 -23.7% 2 2015A 9.56 -13.73%
3 2016A 9,141 11.82% 3 2016A 1849.84 19.0% 3 2016A 9.49 -0.71%
4 2017A 10,010 9.50% 4 2017A 2096.53 13.3% 4 2017A 11.44 20.52%
5 2018A 11,292 12.81% 5 2018A 2617.65 24.9% 5 2018A 14.68 28.30%
6 2019A 12,369 9.53% 6 2019A 2925.88 11.8% 6 2019A 18.81 28.16%
7 2020A 13,350 7.93% 7 2020A 3201.5 9.4% 7 2020A 21.45 14.02%
8 2021A 14,741 10.42% 8 2021A 3562.4 11.3% 8 2021A 24.90 16.11%
9 2022A 16,897 14.63% 9 2022A 3706.29 4.0% 9 2022A 25.05 0.57%
10 2023A 19,126 13.19% 10 2023A 4470.99 20.6% 10 2023A 30.87 23.25%
11 2024E 18615.24 -2.67% 11 2024E 4440 -0.7% 11 2024E 30.99 0.39%
12 2025E 19727.90 5.98% 12 2025E 4738 6.7% 12 2025E 33.40 7.78%
13 2026E 20840.56 5.64% 13 2026E 5036 6.3% 13 2026E 35.81 7.22%
14 2027E 21953.22 5.34% 14 2027E 5334 5.9% 14 2027E 38.22 6.73%
15 2028E 23065.88 5.07% 15 2028E 5631 5.6% 15 2028E 40.63 6.31%
16 2029E 24178.54 4.82% 16 2029E 5929 5.3% 16 2029E 43.04 5.93%

Arthmatic 8.09%
Geometric 6.86%
Standard deviati 9.66%

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Regression Beta - 2 Year Weekly

Nestle India weekly return Nifty Returns Beta Drifting

Date Closing price Return Closing Price Return Levered Raw Beta 0.39
13-06-2022 1632.0 15293.50 Beta Weight 75%
20-06-2022 1689.8 3.54% 15699.25 2.65%
27-06-2022 1745.1 3.27% 15752.05 0.34% Market Beta 1
04-07-2022 1806.3 3.51% 16220.60 2.97% Mearket Beta Weigh 25%
11-07-2022 1840.8 1.91% 16049.20 -1.06%
18-07-2022 1862.1 1.16% 16719.45 4.18% Adjusted Beta 0.54
25-07-2022 1898.4 1.95% 17158.25 2.62%
01-08-2022 1953.6 2.91% 17397.50 1.39%
08-08-2022 1916.5 -1.90% 17698.15 1.73% Beta
15-08-2022 1906.5 -0.52% 17758.45 0.34% Nestle Beta 0.39
22-08-2022 1915.0 0.45% 17558.90 -1.12% HUL Beta -0.31
29-08-2022 1918.3 0.17% 17539.45 -0.11% Swojas -0.02
05-09-2022 1868.3 -2.61% 17833.35 1.68%
12-09-2022 1804.8 -3.40% 17530.85 -1.70%
19-09-2022 1813.8 0.50% 17327.35 -1.16%
26-09-2022 1877.4 3.51% 17094.35 -1.34%
03-10-2022 1894.7 0.92% 17314.65 1.29%
10-10-2022 1856.2 -2.03% 17185.70 -0.74%
17-10-2022 1990.2 7.22% 17576.30 2.27%
24-10-2022 1989.0 -0.06% 17786.80 1.20%
31-10-2022 2003.0 0.70% 18117.15 1.86%
07-11-2022 2004.8 0.09% 18349.70 1.28%
14-11-2022 1965.6 -1.96% 18307.65 -0.23%
21-11-2022 1926.5 -1.99% 18512.75 1.12%
28-11-2022 1948.4 1.14% 18696.10 0.99%
05-12-2022 1996.8 2.48% 18496.60 -1.07%
12-12-2022 1947.2 -2.49% 18269.00 -1.23%
19-12-2022 1986.1 2.00% 17806.80 -2.53%
26-12-2022 1934.1 -2.62% 18105.30 1.68%
02-01-2023 1961.7 1.42% 17859.45 -1.36%
09-01-2023 1951.7 -0.51% 17956.60 0.54%
16-01-2023 1894.1 -2.95% 18027.65 0.40%
23-01-2023 1895.7 0.08% 17604.35 -2.35%

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Weighted Average Cost of Capital
are in INR unless stated otherwie

Peer Comps
Debt/ Debt/ Levered Unlevered
Name of the Comps Country Total Debt. Total Equity Tax Rate 1
Equity Capital Beta 2 Beta 3

Nestle India India 344.5 245137.0 30.00% 0.14% 0.14% 0.39 0.39
Britannia Inds. India 2065.0 129915.9 30.00% 1.59% 1.56% -0.31 -0.31
Swojas Energy India 0.0 40.5 30.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.02 -0.02

Average 30.00% 0.58% 0.57% 1.95% 0.02

Median 30.00% 0.14% 0.14% -1.58% -0.02

Cost Of Debt Cost of Equity

Pre - Tax Cost of debt 8.40% Risk free Rate 7.38%

Tax Rate 30% Equity Risk Premiumn 8.00%
Post Tax Cost of Debt 5.8800% Levered Beta 0.02
Cost of equity 8.2%

Capital Structure Levered Beta

Current Target
Comps Median Unievered Beta 0.02
Total Debt 344.5 0.14% 42.50% Target Debt/Equity 73.91%
Market Capitalization 245137.0 99.86% 57.5% Tax Rate 30%
Total Capital 245481.49 100% 100%
Levered Beta 0.02
Debt/Equity 0.14% 73.91%

Weighted Average Cost of capital

Total Cost Total Weight

Debt 5.8800% 42.50%
Equity 8.15% 57.5%
Weighted Average cost of Capital 7.19%

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Comparable Company
Market Data Valuation Market Data Valuation

Share Enterprisee
Company Tickerr Share price Equity Value Net Debt Revenue EBITDA Net Income EV/Revenue EV/EBIDA P/E
Outstanding Value

Patanjali Foods 1467.25 36.20 53114.45 215.16 52899.29 31721.35 1113736.60 765.15 1.7x 0.0x 69.4x
Adani Wilmar 341.55 129.97 44391.25 -182.08 44573.33 51261.63 1611153.03 147.98 0.9x 0.0x 300.0x
BCL Industries 56.55 27.23 1539.86 471.34 1068.52 2129.19 21504.82 95.92 0.5x 0.0x 16.1x
Gokul Refoils 42.38 9.90 419.56 258.09 161.47 3019.87 31618.04 1.81 0.1x 0.0x 231.8x
Gujarat Ambuja Exp 141.81 45.87 6504.82 178.12 6326.70 4926.93 56068.46 345.92 1.3x 0.1x 18.8x
Kriti Nutrients 113.54 5.01 568.84 -10.31 579.15 684.36 5734.94 45.29 0.8x 0.1x 12.6x
MK Proteins 12.36 37.54 463.99 19.99 444.00 245.57 6966.82 11.21 1.8x 0.1x 41.4x
Shri Venkatesh 117.00 2.21 258.57 123.17 135.40 575.23 7293.92 15.03 0.2x 0.0x 17.2x
Raj Oil Mills 54.99 3.00 164.97 30.58 134.39 124.72 5429.06 1.71 1.1x 0.0x 96.5x
Marico 623.50 129.44 80705.84 -415.00 81120.84 9653.00 357450.59 1502.00 8.4x 0.2x 53.7x

High 1.8x 0.1x 300.0x

75th Percentile 1.28 0.06 96.47
Average 0.9x 0.1x 89.3x
Median 0.9x 0.0x 41.4x
25th Percentile 1x 0x 17x
Low 0.1x 0.0x 12.6x

Patanjali Comparable Valuation EV/Revenue EV/EBIDA P/E

Implied Enterprie Value 27582.5469 968423.2 665.32

Net Debt 215.16 215.16 215.16
Implied Market Value 27367.39 968208.06 450.16
Share outstanding 36.20 36.20 36.20
Implied Valuee Per Share 756.0 26746.1 12.4

Overvalued

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 DCF Valuation

Calculation of PV of FCFF Mar-23A Mar-24 Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F

EBIT 3303.28 4259.54 4488.71 4730.20 4984.68

Tax Rate 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00% 25.00%
EBIT(1-T) 2477.46 3194.66 3366.53 3547.65 3738.51
Less: Reinvestment Rate 41.69% 43.53% 45.36% 47.20% 49.03%
Free Cash Flow to firm (FCFF) 1444.61 1804.18 1839.46 1873.32 1905.49
Mid Year Convention 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
Discounting Factor 0.965891 0.90112298 0.840698176 0.78432516
PV of FCFF 1742.64 1657.58 1574.89 1494.53

Expected Growth 5.48%

Termiunal Growth 5.38%
WACC 7.19%

Calculation of Terminal Value Sensitivity Analysis

18.0% 20.0% 22.0% 24.0%
FCFF (+1) 2009.91452 3.00% 13399.43 11823.03 10578.50 9571.02
WACC 7.19% 4.00% 14356.53 12561.97 11166.19 10049.57
Terminal Growth Rate 5.38% 5.38% 15926.42 13747.71 12093.35 10794.39
6.00% 16749.29 14356.53 12561.97 11166.19
Terminal Value 111201.38 7.00% 18271.95 15460.88 13399.43 11823.03

Calculation of Equity Value

PV of FCFF 6469.64
PV of Terminal Value 87218.04
Value of Operating Asset 93687.68

Add: Cash 945.55

Less: Debt 270.52
Value of Equity 94362.71
NO of Shares 96.42
Equity Value Per Share 978.71

Share Price 2550

Discount/Premium 1.6'X'

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Football Field Analysis

Open Low Low Openhigh High

Comps 12163 12163 11285 11685
DCF Bear 9571 9571 11823 11823
DCF Base 11823 11823 15460 15460
DCF Bull 13399 13399 18771 18771
52W H/L 11731 11731 14334 14334

Football Field Analysis Valuation Summary( Rs)

₹20,000.00 ₹18,771.00

₹18,000.00

₹15,460.00
₹16,000.00
₹14,334.00
₹14,000.00
₹11,684.70 ₹11,823.00
₹12,000.00 ₹13,399.00
₹12,162.50 ₹11,823.00 ₹11,731.00
₹10,000.00

₹9,571.00
₹8,000.00

₹6,000.00

₹4,000.00

₹2,000.00

₹0.00
Comps DCF Bear DCF Base DCF Bull 52W H/L

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Monte Carlo Simulation
Date Adj Close Return Shorted Return Replication Simulated Return Calculation of Value of Risk - Nestle India
19-09-2002 468.886322 -0.71 1 -0.01 Historical Approach
07-04-2020 1624.971313 0.20 0.13 2 0.02 Mean 0.043%
20-03-2020 1349.052368 1.19 0.08 3 -0.02 Std Deviation 1.40%
05-08-2015 614.827454 0.79 0.08 4 0.00 Min -52.67%
09-11-2010 344.368164 -0.38 0.07 5 -0.01 Max 12.80%
13-05-2016 551.920227 -0.60 0.07 6 0.02 Current Market Pric 2550
25-03-2020 1377.529907 1.57 0.07 7 0.01
09-06-2015 536.247253 -0.17 0.07 8 -0.01
28-08-2017 646.575012 -0.50 0.07 9 0.04 Monte Carlo imulation
20-09-2019 1282.45874 -0.18 0.06 10 -0.01 Mean 0.032%
03-02-2020 1554.621704 0.45 0.06 11 0.02 Std Deviation 1.40%
23-08-2018 1070.145752 0.22 0.06 12 0.02 Min -52.67%
11-05-2018 877.208801 -0.47 0.06 13 0.00 Max 4.85%
27-10-2020 1649.290649 1.80 0.06 14 0.02 Current Market Pric 2550
16-10-2015 589.351807 1.49 0.06 15 0.00
09-02-2010 236.671616 -0.80 0.06 16 0.03 Percentile Confidence VAR Stock Price VAR(INR)
21-08-2019 1196.454224 1.72 0.05 17 -0.01 5.0% 95% -2.26% 2607.725792 -57.7257924
30-04-2013 439.675751 -0.02 0.05 18 0.00 1.0% 99% -3.23% 2632.432932 -82.4329324
01-07-2013 450.346832 -0.28 0.05 19 -0.01 0.5% 100% -3.63% 2642.646194 -92.6461942
14-10-2016 624.200439 0.20 0.05 20 -0.01
31-03-2016 519.075378 0.78 0.05 21 0.00
14-02-2011 290.902008 -0.50 0.05 22 0.00
01-06-2016 579.025818 0.55 0.05 23 0.01
01-07-2011 372.579498 -0.77 0.05 24 0.01
20-05-2022 1653.570068 2.81 0.05 25 -0.01
30-08-2013 433.675964 -0.22 0.05 26 0.00
12-04-2016 554.277893 -0.78 0.05 27 0.01
19-12-2023 2541.79541 3.45 0.05 28 0.00
30-06-2015 571.118225 0.37 0.05 29 0.01
10-04-2012 417.87326 -0.76 0.04 30 0.00
10-12-2020 1770.736816 0.88 0.04 31 -0.01
31-10-2018 940.716675 0.35 0.04 32 0.01
15-02-2018 698.524536 -0.58 0.04 33 0.00
15-04-2020 1652.366089 1.71 0.04 34 0.00
27-04-2017 609.84906 -0.60 0.04 35 0.00
19-10-2020 1540.4823 2.10 0.04 36 -0.02
13-08-2014 496.7034 0.46 0.04 37 -0.01

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 COMPARABLE COMPANY VALUATION
Market
No. Eq. Cash End NP 12M Mar Cap
S.No. Name CMP Rs. Capitalizatio Debt Rs.Cr. Net Debt EV EV Rs.Cr. Sales Rs.Cr. EV / EBITDA EBITDA
Shares Cr. n Rs.Cr. Rs.Cr. Rs.Cr.
1 Marico 623.50 129.44 80705.84 528.00 943.00 -415.00 80290.84 80288.57 9653.00 37% 357451 1,502.00 80,703.57
2 Patanjali Foods 1467.25 36.20 53114.45 1048.74 833.58 215.16 53329.61 53328.85 31721.35 35% 1113737 765.15 53,113.69
3 Adani Wilmar 341.55 129.97 44391.25 2627.50 2809.58 -182.08 44209.17 44208.44 51261.63 31% 1611153 147.98 44,390.52
4 BCL Industries 56.55 27.23 1539.86 477.08 5.74 471.34 2011.20 2011.48 2129.19 10% 21505 95.92 1,540.14
5 Gokul Refoils 42.38 9.90 419.56 330.96 72.87 258.09 677.65 677.63 3019.87 10% 31618 1.81 419.54
6 Gujarat Ambuja Exp 141.81 45.87 6504.82 197.02 18.90 178.12 6682.94 6682.53 4926.93 11% 56068 345.92 6,504.41
7 Kriti Nutrients 113.54 5.01 568.84 12.15 22.46 -10.31 558.53 558.57 684.36 8% 5735 45.29 568.88
8 MK Proteins 12.36 37.54 463.99 20.08 0.09 19.99 483.98 483.95 245.57 28% 6967 11.21 463.96
9 Shri Venkatesh 117.00 2.21 258.57 124.04 0.87 123.17 381.74 378.20 575.23 13% 7294 15.03 258.8
10 Raj Oil Mills 54.99 3.00 164.97 30.96 0.38 30.58 195.55 195.43 124.72 44% 5429 1.71 164.85
11 Mangalam Global 22.24 16.48 366.52 201.34 14.10 553.76 553.71 1838.80 11% 20650 20.21 366.47
12 KN Agri Resources 144.95 2.50 362.38 110.21 17.51 455.08 439.72 1699.67 8% 13716 31.26 362.36

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Dupont Analysis - Return on Equity & Return on Asset

Nestle India LTD

(NESTLEIND | BSE Code : 500790
INR 2548.2
52 Week (HIGH - INR2,769.30 & Low-2,145)
About the Company
Nestlé S.A. French: German: is a Swiss multinational food and drink processing conglomerate corporation headquartered in Vevey,
Switzerland. It has been the largest publicly held food company in the world, measured by revenue and other metrics, since 2014. It
ranked No. 64 on the Fortune Global 500 in 2017. In 2023, the company was ranked 50th in the Forbes Global 2000.

Summary

Revenues (INR Crs.) Net Profit (INR Crs.) Total Asset (INR Crs.)

5036.82 4489.37 4489.37

2998.67

4830.53 2390.52
2082.43 2118.41 4117.06
5
4658.53 3949.86
4600.42 5

Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Return on Equity (INR Crs.) Return on Asset (INR Crs.) Financial leverage (INR Crs.)

5036.82
66.8% 2.45'X'
2.35'X' 2.29'X'
4830.53 52.7% 53.2%
51.5% 1.87'X'

4658.53
4600.42

Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Return on Equity (ROE)

Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 1225.2 1606.9 1968.4 2082.4 2118.4 2390.5 2998.7
Average Share holder 3351.5 3547.2 2796.3 1969.1 1982.9 2202.8 2459.2
Return on Equity (ROE 37% 45% 70% 106% 107% 109% 122%

ROE - Duopant Equation

Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 1225.19 1606.93 1968.44 2082.43 2118.41 2390.52 2998.67
Reveeenue 4045.69 4601.84 4256.79 4830.53 4658.53 5036.82 4600.42
Net Profit Margin 30% 35% 46% 43% 45% 47% 65%
Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh
 Revenue 4045.69 4601.84 4256.79 4830.53 4658.53 5036.82 4600.42
Average Total Asset 3681.295 4044.04 3586.47 3949.865 4117.065 4489.37 4489.37
Asset Turnover Ratio 1.10'X' 1.14'X' 1.19'X' 1.22'X' 1.13'X' 1.12'X' 1.02'X'

Average Total Asset 4045.69 4601.84 4256.79 4830.53 4658.53 5036.82 4600.42
Average Shareholder E 3351.5 3547.2 2796.3 1969.1 1982.9 2202.8 2459.2
Equity Multiplier 1.21'X' 1.30'X' 1.52'X' 2.45'X' 2.35'X' 2.29'X' 1.87'X'

Return on Equity A*B 40.2% 51.6% 83.6% 129.3% 120.9% 121.8% 125.0%

Return on Asset(ROA)
Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 1225.2 1606.9 1968.4 2082.4 2118.4 2390.5 2998.7
Average Share holder 3681.3 4044.0 3586.5 3949.9 4117.1 4489.4 4489.4
Return on Asset 33.3% 39.7% 54.9% 52.7% 51.5% 53.2% 66.8%

ROA - Dupont Equation

Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 1225.2 1606.9 1968.4 2082.4 2118.4 2390.5 2998.7
Average Share holder 3351.5 3547.2 2796.3 1969.1 1982.9 2202.8 2459.2
Return on Equity (ROE 37% 45% 70% 106% 107% 109% 122%

ROE - Duopant Equation

Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23
Net Profit 1225.19 1606.93 1968.44 2082.43 2118.41 2390.52 2998.67
Reveeenue 4045.69 4601.84 4256.79 4830.53 4658.53 5036.82 4600.42
Net Profit Margin 30% 35% 46% 43% 45% 47% 65%

Revenue 4045.69 4601.84 4256.79 4830.53 4658.53 5036.82 4600.42

Average Total Asset 3681.295 4044.04 3586.47 3949.865 4117.065 4489.37 4489.37
Asset Turnover Ratio 1.10'X' 1.14'X' 1.19'X' 1.22'X' 1.13'X' 1.12'X' 1.02'X'

Return on Asset A*B 33.3% 39.7% 54.9% 52.7% 51.5% 53.2% 66.8%

Recent Update
• Nestle India March quarter results: PAT up 27% at Rs 934 cr, revenue up 9%
• Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) went up 21.8 per cent to Rs 1,337
crore from Rs 1,098 crore.
• net profit was up 42.5 per cent from 655.61 crore reported in last quarter.T
• Total income for the 15-month financial period came in at Rs 24,541.85 crore, up 44.38 per cent compared
to Rs 16,997.96 crore reported in the previous 12-month financial year.
• Total expenses also rose 13.29 per cent at Rs 19,257.35 crore, from 16,997.96 crore between the two
financial years.

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Altman's Z score Analysis

Working Capital/Total Asset

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Working Capital 1455.4 2128.0 2114.9 1802.0 1449.9 1449.9
Total Asset 8088.1 7172.9 7899.7 8234.1 8978.7 8978.7
Working Capital/Total Asset (A) 17.99% 29.67% 26.77% 21.89% 16.15% 16.15%

Retained Earnings/Total Asset

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Retained Earnings 1415.13 1813.67 2067.98 2401.09 2414.88 2976.26
Total Assets 8088 7173 7900 8234 8979 8979
Retaiined Earning / Total Asset(B) 17% 25% 26% 29% 27% 33%

EBIT/Total Assets
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
EBIT 1754.28 2281.98 2555.73 2831.12 3171.38 3303.28
Total Asset 8088.08 7172.94 7899.73 8234.13 8978.74 8978.74
EBIT/Total Assets 21.69% 31.81% 32.35% 34.38% 35.32% 36.79%

Market Cap/Long term Liabilities

Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Market Cap 10687.59 14255.45 17731.14 18999.39 18903.27 25627.59
Long Term Liabilities 35.14 188.94 147.49 266.46 270.52 270.52
Market Cap/Long Term Liabilities 30414.30% 7544.96% 12021.93% 7130.30% 6987.75% 9473.45%

Sale/Total Assets
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Sales 11292.27 12368.9 13350.03 14740.59 16896.96 19126.3
Total Assets 8088.1 7172.9 7899.7 8234.1 8978.7 8978.7
Sales/Total Asets 139.62% 172.44% 168.99% 179.02% 188.19% 213.02%

Altman's Z Score
Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Final Score 11508.13 10090.52 11134.83 11573.75 12615.40 12630.61
Financial Stabiliity Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong Strong

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh

 Working Capital Sales
2500.0 25000

2000.0 20000

1500.0 15000

1000.0 10000

500.0 5000

0.0 0
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Retained Earnings EBIT

3500 3500

3000 3000

2500 2500

2000 2000

1500 1500

1000 1000

500 500

0 0
Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Prepared by: Vikramjeet singh