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Request-ARMAnalystDay 2011 Finalv2
Request-ARMAnalystDay 2011 Finalv2
Request-ARMAnalystDay 2011 Finalv2
Agenda
Timing 10:00 10:30 10:30 11:00 11:00 11:20 11:20 11:40 11:40 12:00 12:00 12:30 12:30 13:30 Topic Overview and ARMs 2020 Vision Tudor Brown, President Licensing and Royalty Evolution Graham Budd, Chief Operating Officer Break ARM Performance Computing Mike Muller, Chief Technology Officer Ecosystem and Software development James McNiven, VP of Software Alliances Q&A Chaired by Warren East, CEO Buffet Lunch
President
ARM Overview
ARM is the worlds leading semiconductor IP company
R&D outsourcing company for
semiconductor industry
ARM
licence
SemiCo Partner
OEM Customer
royalty
+39
~370 Licenses
$250m $200m
Processor Licenses
+61 +62
+91 +87
2001-05 Pre-2001
~770
~300 Licenses
~100 Licenses
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
2006
2007
2001
Growth Opportunities
Licensing
Royalty Other Total COGS Gross Margin Operating Costs Operating Margin Profit Before Tax EPS Free Cash Flow
208.2
335.3 87.8 631.3
132.5
217.7 56.4 406.6 23.3 94.3% 219.0 40.4% 167.4 9.34p 290.1
33%
53% 14% 100%
10
processing, connectivity and storage Standard software is available today and enables all form factors to connect to the internet and display all the web Other* Total pages, play videos, network with friends ...
11
12
Billions of Microcontrollers
Microcontrollers make the world smarter End-Market
Motor control, smart metering, security, air
bags, toys, heating and air-conditioning
Automotive Smartcards Microcontrollers Total TAM(m) 2015 2,200 7,700 9,000 19 billion
Smart Utilities Toys Remote Control Smartcards Electric Vehicle Re-charging Point In Vehicle Infotainment
ARM royalty opportunity per chip is increasing Higher value processors Multiple processor per chip Physical IP and graphics IP
14
15
16
1,200 1,900 570 300 230 220 200 450 750 120 670 1,800
90% 90% 95% 70% 10% 0% 80% 35% 25% 65% 85% 10%
1,100 650 700 120 750 250 150 500 800 200 1,100 2,200
4,000 2,000 1,300 250 750 250 250 1,200 1,400 200 1,100 2,200
Mobile Non-Mobile
Feature Phone Low End Voice Portable Media Players Mobile Computing* (apps only) Desktop PCs & Servers (apps) Digital Camera Digital TV & Set-top-box Networking Printers Hard Disk & Solid State Drives Automotive
Smart Card
Microcontrollers Others ** Total
* Including tablets, netbooks and laptops
17
5,400
5,800 1,800 22,000
6%
10% 15% 28%
7,700
9,000 2,000 27,000
1
1 1
7,700
9,000 2,000 34,000
Source: ABI, Gartner, Semico, Instat, IDC, and ARM estimates
* * Includes other applications not listed such as headsets, DVD, game consoles, etc
<50c <50MHz
Microcontrollers
>$200 >2GHz
Servers HPC
COGS
Gross Margin
23.3
94.3% 219.0 40.4% 167.4 9.34p 290.1
Operating Costs Operating Margin Profit Before Tax EPS Free Cash Flow
Approximately 50% of costs in USD 10% move in $/ impacts EPS by ~15% Operating margins and earnings will increase as royalties grow
19
20
High-volume customers want cross-divisional access Start-ups typically require lower upfront fees
Arch.
Fewer technology/use constraints Subscrip Greater commercial and -tion technical interaction Perpetual Increasing internal investment by Partner Term Increasing ARM / Partner business knowledge Multi / Single Use Higher license price
DesignStart
}
}
rights No commercialisation
22
1% 2%
51%
Grants access to a technology for a limited time Term
3.0yrs
Cortex-M family penetrating smaller MCU companies Cortex-A family adopted by start-ups penetrating computer markets
46%
2.5yrs
23
broad range of ARM technology Revenue recognised pro-rata across the term
management want to maximise reuse of investment Subscription licensees often choose to use ARM technology across more divisions
Physical IP Subscription
24
Architecture Licensees
Many Many Semis Many Semis Many Semis Semis Software Compatible Chips
25
Each Partner has different motivation for signing an architecture license Also continue to license standard ARM processors
+4 others
60%-70% saving
Licensing Royalty
Cost to Buy
26
10
1.Excluding subscription licensees
A : 13 R:9 M : 11
2. Only six have A, R and M processors
12
27
Growing Penetration
>95% 10% >95% 70% 65% 80% 35% 25% 65% 85% 10% 6% 10% <1%
Public ARM design wins, but not yet shipping No ARM design win or not yet public
Q4 2010
3 companies re-equipped
Q1 2011
Based on current market shares and ARMs view of how these markets may develop. ARM will update the chart on the left only as design wins become public
29
Industry Revenues
Top 5
Division Top5
companies Major companies buy into new markets with ARM-based technology ARM works with enlarged company to aid integration opportunity
Infineon / Wireless TI / Cable Modem Ralink Atheros Nokia / Modem National Semi
Shipping mainly ARM-based chips Shipping some ARM-based chips Public ARM design wins, but not yet shipping No ARM design win or not yet public
30
20 10
0
2008
31
2009
2010
Q1-2011
Cortex-A Shipments
Combo chip
Q4 10
Q1 11
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
32
33
34
100 Billion
Mobile Internet Desktop Units Internet PC Mini
100M
1 Billion
10 Billion
2nd Era
Mainframe
1M
10M
1960
35
Functionality
Functionality $
Functionality Power $
Functionality Energy$
Up to 1980s
1990s
2000s Notebooks
2010s
Mainframes/mini
36
The PC
Mobiles
Functionality Energy$
Mobiles
100 Billion
Mobile Internet Desktop Units Internet PC Mini
100M
1 Billion
10 Billion
2nd Era
Mainframe
1M
10M
1960
38
100 Billion
Mobile Internet Desktop Internet PC Mini
100M
1 Billion
10 Billion
2nd Era
Mainframe
1M
10M
1st Era
39
40
20nm
22SOI ATQV Litho Test Cortex-M0 IBM 22nm SOI IBM 20nm IBM 20nm Nov 2009 Feb 2010 Dec 2010
28nm
Cortex-M3 IBM 28nm Aug 2009 TC2-shrink IBM 28nm Jun 2010 Cortex-A9 GF 28nm Aug 2010
32nm
Explorer Cortex-M3 Cortex-M3 IBM 32nm IBM 32nm IBM 32nm Oct 2008 Feb 2009 Jul 2008 Cortex-M3 GF 32nm May 2009 32LP TC1a IBM 32nm Jun 2009 32LP TC2 32LP TC1b Samsung 32nm Samsung 32nm Feb 2010 Jul 2009 Cortex-A9 Samsung 32nm Feb 2010
M0
1/10,000th size
Cortex-M0
Subsystem
December 2010
42
100% parallel
28
24
Maximum speedup
20
16
12
Number of cores
43
IO
Mali-400
2.0 GHz
1.3 GHz
System
0.9 GHz
SVt, SS 0.81V, 125C
POPs
POPs
44
Founding Partners: ARM, Freescale, IBM, Samsung, ST-Ericsson and Texas Instruments
300
Cortex-A15
...2.5GHz
x1-4
Cortex-A9 Cortex-A8
x1-4
250
Cortex-A5
200
The last few % are very expensive Design the right core
1-2
Cortex-R7
1-2
150
100
Performance
Cortex-M0
12k gates...
46
Cortex-A15
...2.5GHz
x1-4
Cortex-A9 Cortex-A8
x1-4
Cortex-A5
1-2
Cortex-R7
1-2
Cortex-R5
December 2010
47
Number of cores
Published by the IEEE Computer Society 0272-1732/10/$26.00 2010 IEEE C Kozyrakis, A Kansal, S Sankar, K Vaid, C Batten, M Horowitz, F Labonte, O Shacham, K Olukotun, L Hammond, C Batten
48
49
1mm3 platform
8.75mm3 platform solar cell 0.18m Cortex-M3
University of Michigan
1km3 platform
4200 ARM Neutrino Detectors 70 bore holes 2.5km deep 60 detectors per bore hole
supported by the National Science Foundation and University of Wisconsin-Madison
50
?
Functionality Energy$ Functionality Available $ Energy Functionality $
2010s Mobiles
51
Summary
Low Power positioned for the future
Low power is a requirement going forward A design philosophy and time to Volume
VP of Software Alliances
53
ARM
licence
SemiCo Partner
OEM Customer
royalty
ARM
licence
SemiCo Partner
OEM Customer
royalty
Software Tools
Operating Systems
Application Software
2000
2005
Every company that joins the ecosystem increases its breadth and richness Investments from existing ecosystem can
be reused into new markets
2010
56
Premium services
experienced engineers, established supply-chains and relationships ARM technology is the starting point for any new product or service Companies can create value by being best on ARM
1995
Work with leading OEMs Invested in Palmchip
2000
Mass market HDD opportunity
2005
2010
Cortex-R4 now widely licensed by HDD suppliers
Today
Future
Cortex-R5/7 available in next generation drives
2000
Work with pioneering Partners Strong pull from OEMs
2002
2004
Lead licensing
2006
2008
Today
Future
More ecosystem initiatives planned
59
2008
Start dialogue with semis OEMs and S/W
2009
Invest in start-up
2010
OEMs and S/W experimenting
YTD
Future
ARM based chips developed for servers ARM based servers initially into niche applications
multiple platforms and segments Expands market for third party developers - initially OSs and middleware, now applications
Design Cost (m$)
Software
Hardware
Consumer devices
61
UBOOT/UEFI
Mali
Cortex-A
AMBA Interconnect
62
Operating Systems
Microsoft announced future Windows OS for ARM based SoCs
/ Plug-ins
Apps
Most apps created using ARM native development tools for best performance and lowest power Highly optimized ARM JIT compiler performance for nonnative code applications
Google developing Chrome OS for PCs using low power ARM chips
Optimizations have increased ARM Javascript performance by 5x in the past year Web performance a key CPU design performance measure
63
64
65
Software Partnerships
Strategic approach to partnership with thought leaders in PC and TV graphics
Services / Games Framework / Engines OS/Middleware ARMs Mali Drivers
Educate, optimise, create demos ARM has best address book in mobile to introduce software providers to OEMs
67
... this is the most powerful mobile handset we've yet tested
engadget.com
68
69
Concluding Remarks
Warren East
70
Best Technology
Best Ecosystem
Growing Opportunity
71
Q&A
72