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SPRINGER BRIEFS IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH

Enrique Mu
Milagros Pereyra-Rojas

Practical Decision
Making using
Super Decisions v3
An Introduction
to the Analytic
Hierarchy Process

123
SpringerBriefs in Operations Research
SpringerBriefs present concise summaries of cutting-edge research and practical
applications across a wide spectrum of fields. Featuring compact volumes of 50 to
125 pages, the series covers a range of content from professional to academic.
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• A timely report of state-of-the art analytical techniques

• A bridge between new research results, as published in journal articles, and a
contextual literature review
• A snapshot of a hot or emerging topic
• An in-depth case study or clinical example
• A presentation of core concepts that students must understand in order to make
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research, and practical application in the various areas of operations research, man-
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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11467

Enrique Mu • Milagros Pereyra-Rojas

Practical Decision Making

using Super Decisions v3
An Introduction to The Analytic
Hierarchy Process
Enrique Mu Milagros Pereyra-Rojas
Carlow University University of Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh, PA, USA Pittsburgh, PA, USA

ISSN 2195-0482     ISSN 2195-0504 (electronic)

SpringerBriefs in Operations Research
ISBN 978-3-319-68368-3    ISBN 978-3-319-68369-0 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68369-0

Library of Congress Control Number: 2017955836

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of
the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation,
broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information
storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology
now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
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Printed on acid-free paper

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The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
This book is dedicated to the memory of
Thomas L. Saaty (1926–2017). He gave the
world a better way to make decisions and
inspired a whole generation of scholars.
Thank you, Tom!

Pittsburgh, August 25, 2017

Preface

The field of AHP decision-making is in continuous development. Most recently, the

Creative Decisions Foundation has launched its new Super Decisions v3. This ver-
sion constitutes a drastic departure from the previous versions. Creative Decisions
Foundation may either maintain both current software versions (v2 and v3) in oper-
ation, so practitioners may take advantage of the different strengths of these two
versions, or may decide to gradually phase out Super Decisions v2; however, which
path will be taken is still unknown. While Super Decisions v2 has attractive graphi-
cal features, Super Decisions v3 offers an easy interface, in particular for ratings
models. This convinced us of the need to write a book, which would allow practitio-
ners and scholars to learn, use, and teach AHP using Super Decisions v3. While the
theoretical part of this book is basically the same as in our previous book Practical
Decision Making: An Introduction to the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) Using
Super Decisions v2, the practical part is taught using the newly released Super
Decisions v3.

Pittsburgh, PA, USA Enrique Mu

June 2017  Milagros Pereyra-Rojas

vii
Acknowledgments

This book would not have been possible without the assistance of Dr. Elena Rokou,
chief research officer at the Creative Decisions Foundation and developer of the new
Super Decision v3. She generously assisted the authors with the laborious task of
getting familiar with a new software version during its beta test. Also, Ms. Rozann
Saaty, vice-president of the Creative Decisions Foundation, was very encouraging—
as usual—with our initiative and, finally, Dr. Thomas Saaty, who warmly welcomed
us into his classes where we were able to follow up on the use of the new software
version in his course. He never ceases to inspire us.

ix
Audience for This Book

Since the landmark publication of Decision Making for Leaders by Thomas L. Saaty
in 1980, there have been several books on the topic. Some of them deal with the
theory of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and others discuss its applications.
The question is whether a new book on AHP is needed and why. The answer is based
on our own experience as academic and practitioner of the AHP methodology.
First, AHP appeared as an intuitive and mathematically simple methodology in the
field of multi-criteria decision-making in operations research (OR). Because of this,
most AHP books assume the reader has basic OR mathematical background. Even
books that claim to be extremely simple to understand usually demand from the reader
“basic linear algebra and familiarity with vectors” as a prerequisite. Truthfully, these
books are very simple to understand if you have the requested mathematical back-
ground. However, the problem starts when we try to teach AHP to decision-makers
outside the OR field. AHP simplicity suggests that decision-­makers from all disciplines
can take advantage of the methodology if they can learn it without having to struggle
with the mathematical jargon, no matter how simple it can be for an OR professional.
Teaching AHP fundamentals and applications to non-OR students requires a dif-
ferent approach from the one offered by traditional books. Similarly, when explain-
ing and teaching the AHP method to corporate executives, it becomes clear that these
professionals are in the best position to take advantage of using the AHP method, but
at the same time, they lack the time or interest to learn the math behind it. An
approach that could provide them with a quick understanding of the method and,
most importantly, learn it well enough to use it in their business decisions is needed.
This book aims to fill in this need. It provides a quick and intuitive understanding
of the methodology using spreadsheet examples and explains in a step-by-step fash-
ion how to use the method using Super Decisions, a freely available software devel-
oped by the Creative Decisions Foundation. The high-school level of math is used
in this book, and we have avoided using sophisticated terms to make the procedure
easy to understand. This book is based on a 15-year experience practicing and
teaching AHP to executives and non-OR students and is based on class notes devel-
oped for this purpose over time. Because of this, we are also indebted to our AHP
students for inspiring us to write this book.

xi
Contents

Part I Basics
1 The Need for Another Decision-Making Methodology��������������������������   3
1.1 The Need for Decision-Making Methodologies ��������������������������������   3
1.2 Decision-Making Methodologies��������������������������������������������������������   5
1.3 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   6
References����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   6
2 Understanding the Analytic Hierarchy Process��������������������������������������   7
2.1 Developing a Model����������������������������������������������������������������������������   8
2.2 Deriving Priorities (Weights) for the Criteria ������������������������������������   9
2.3 Consistency ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 13
2.4 Deriving Local Priorities (Preferences) for the Alternatives�������������� 15
2.5 Derive Overall Priorities (Model Synthesis)�������������������������������������� 18
2.6 Sensitivity Analysis���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 19
2.7 Making a Final Decision�������������������������������������������������������������������� 21
2.8 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 21
References���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 21
3 Building AHP Models Using Super Decisions v3������������������������������������ 23
3.1 Developing a Model���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 24
3.2 Deriving Priorities (Weights) for the Criteria ������������������������������������ 28
3.3 Deriving Local Priorities (Preferences) for the Alternatives�������������� 34
3.4 Deriving Overall Priorities (Model Synthesis) ���������������������������������� 37
3.5 Sensitivity Analysis���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 39
3.6 Making a Final Decision�������������������������������������������������������������������� 42
3.7 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 42
References��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   42

xiii
xiv Contents

Part II Intermediate
4 AHP Models with Sub-criteria Using v3�������������������������������������������������� 45
4.1 Introducing Sub-criteria in AHP Super Decision Models������������������ 45
4.2 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 54
Reference ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 56
5 Understanding Ratings Models���������������������������������������������������������������� 57
5.1 Developing Ratings Scales for the Criteria���������������������������������������� 57
5.2 Deriving the Overall Priorities (Model Synthesis) ���������������������������� 59
5.3 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 60
Reference ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 60
6 Ratings Models Using Super Decisions v3 ���������������������������������������������� 61
6.1 Building Ratings Models in Super Decisions ������������������������������������ 61
6.2 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 70
Reference ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 70
7 Benefit/Cost Analysis Using AHP ������������������������������������������������������������ 71
7.1 AHP Benefit/Cost Analysis���������������������������������������������������������������� 71
7.2 AHP Benefit*Opportunity/Cost*Risk (BO/CR) Analysis������������������ 73
7.3 A BO/CR Analysis Example�������������������������������������������������������������� 76
7.4 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 77
References���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 77
Part III Advanced
8 Group Decision-Making in AHP�������������������������������������������������������������� 81
8.1 Working an AHP Model as a Group �������������������������������������������������� 81
8.2 Aggregation of Judgments Using a Spreadsheet�������������������������������� 84
8.3 Aggregation of Judgments in a Comparison Matrix�������������������������� 85
8.4 Aggregation of Judgments Using Super Decisions���������������������������� 86
8.5 Consistency in Group Judgments�������������������������������������������������������� 87
8.6 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 88
References���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 89
9 AHP for Group Negotiation and Conflict Resolution���������������������������� 91
9.1 Introduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 91
9.2 Essentials of AHP Negotiation ���������������������������������������������������������� 91
9.3 AHP Negotiation in BOCR Models���������������������������������������������������� 94
9.4 Conclusion������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 95
References���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 96
10 Application Examples�������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 97
10.1 AHP Handling of Stakeholders�������������������������������������������������������� 97
10.2 AHP Ratings Model in Public Decisions������������������������������������������ 99
10.3 Use of AHP to Elicit Tacit Knowledge �������������������������������������������� 100
10.4 Conclusion���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 103
References���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 103
Contents xv

Appendix A: Practical Questions Related to AHP Modeling������������������������ 105

Appendix B: AHP Basic Theory ���������������������������������������������������������������������� 107
Index�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 113
How to Use This Book

This book provides a very simple, practical, and quick introduction to the theory
and practice of the analytic hierarchy process and has been defined in a modular
way for practical purposes.
If you are interested in the theory and practice of AHP using Super Decisions v3,
read this book in the sequence provided in the Table of Contents; that is, from Chap.
1 to Chap. 10 where the basic level is constituted by Chaps. 1–3, intermediate by
Chaps. 4–7, and advanced by Chaps. 8–10. You may also benefit from reading
appendices A and B although these are optional and software independent.
If you would like to get familiar with the fundamentals of the AHP theory only,
without learning any software package, you may just want to read Chaps. 1, 2, 5, 7,
8, 9, and 10. Should you want to further your knowledge of the mathematical fun-
damentals of the theory, you may also want to read Appendix B.
If you are already familiar with the AHP theory and want to use this book as a
practical introduction to the Super Decisions v3, you may jump ahead to Chap. 3
(developing models) followed by Chap. 4 (adding sub-criteria) and Chap. 6 (ratings
model). Appendix A is convenient since it is related to the practice of AHP.
As you can see, we are trying to honor our commitment of making this book a
practical introduction to AHP decision-making and suitable for the diverse needs of
our readers.

xvii
Introduction

Human beings are required to make decisions at individual and collective levels.
Initially, the decision-making process was studied as a rational process of analyzing
a problem and seeking solutions; however, in recent years, it has become clear that
human beings are far from making decisions in a rational way, either as an individ-
ual or as part of a group.
Psychological studies have found cognitive anomalies or biases experienced by
human beings when making decisions (Kahneman 2011). These cognitive biases
and the increasing complexity of modern problems make it extremely important to
adopt a methodology for making straightforward (easy to use and understand),
effective (making consistent decisions according to our criteria and interests), and
safe (proven methodology) decisions.
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) meets all these requirements, and since its
appearance in 1980, it has been adopted and used by a large number of institutions
all over the world. For these reasons, this is the method that will be presented here
for practical decision-making.
There are several books dealing with AHP theory and practice. This book is dif-
ferent in the sense that it intends to provide you with a practical introduction of
AHP. In other words, upon reading this book, you will be able to start using AHP in
practical applications.

Reference

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

xix
Part I
Basics
Chapter 1
The Need for Another Decision-Making
Methodology

Abstract Henry Mintzberg defined three types of management roles: interpersonal,

informational, and decisional (1989). Interpersonal refers to the ability of the man-
ager of being a figure head, motivational, and a liaison with the public (e.g., Steve
Jobs at Apple). Informational refers to the manager’s role as information broker and
disseminator. Decisional refers to the power and ability of making decisions.

Henry Mintzberg defined three types of management roles: interpersonal, informa-

tional, and decisional (1989). Interpersonal refers to the ability of the manager of
being a figure head, motivational, and a liaison with the public (e.g., Steve Jobs at
Apple). Informational refers to the manager’s role as information broker and dis-
seminator. Decisional refers to the power and ability of making decisions.
While Mintzberg argued that different managers have different role abilities, he
highlights that managers have the authority and power of committing their organi-
zations to courses of actions that will lead to successful or funnest outcomes. Based
on this, being an effective decision-maker is a fundamental skill for managers and
leaders alike. In the end, it is the right and wrong decisions that will make the firm
succeed or fail. This is quite true not just at the organizational level but also at the
individual level.

1.1 The Need for Decision-Making Methodologies

The most popular model of decision-making at the individual level was proposed by
Simon (1960) and defines decision-making as a process comprising the steps of:
intelligence, design, selection, and implementation. The stage of intelligence is
associated with the question: What is the decision we face? The design stage allows
you to propose alternatives and criteria to evaluate them while the selection stage
consists of applying the proposed criteria to choose the best alternative(s) to the
problem. Finally, the last step is to implement the chosen alternative.
This model, as well as other similar models, assumes individuals are rational
information processors that seek to maximize the benefits of their decisions
­(economic behavior); however, these assumptions have been strongly questioned in

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018 3

E. Mu, M. Pereyra-Rojas, Practical Decision Making using Super Decisions v3,
SpringerBriefs in Operations Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68369-0_1
4 1 The Need for Another Decision-Making Methodology

recent years (Camerer, 1994). Experiments in cognitive psychology have shown

that individuals are easy victims of a series of cognitive biases such as the phenom-
enon of framing (changing the way a decision is framed—e.g., as a win or a loss—
makes individuals change their opinions), anchoring (the individual’s decision is
influenced by what piece of information is shown first), and many other cognitive
biases (Kahneman, 2011).
For example, if two investment projects are presented to a group of people, one
where there is the probability of losing 20% of the investment and another in which
there is 80% chance of making a profit; people prefer to invest in the second project,
although both have the same risk (20% probability of losing and 80% winning).
This is an example of the phenomenon of preference based on the frame of refer-
ence (framing). In general, humans feel more inclined to proposals that are pre-
sented in positive terms (e.g., earnings) rather than those that are presented in
negative terms (e.g., losses).
In other studies, it has been found that if a group of individuals is asked to esti-
mate the following product: 2 × 3 × 4 × 5 × 6 × 7 × 8 × 9 and another group com-
posed of individuals of similar age, education, etc. are asked to estimate the product
9 × 8 × 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2; the first group estimates systematically lower results
than the second group. This is because people are influenced by the first numbers
shown. This phenomenon is called anchoring; somehow the person’s estimate is
defined or “anchored” by what is shown first.
In other words, these studies prove that human beings are not cold and calculat-
ing information processors. The fact that individuals may choose alternatives inde-
pendently of their economic benefits does not speak well of the individuals in their
role as homo economicus.1
Unfortunately, these cognitive biases do not simply occur as isolated cases, but
their constant influence on financial, political, social, and professional decisions has
been demonstrated (Piattelli-Palmerini, 1994). For example, in 1982, McNeil, Sox,
and Tversky subjected a select group of doctors in the United States to a test. Using
real clinical data, these researchers showed that doctors were so prone to make mis-
takes based on the decision’s frame of reference (framing error) as anyone else. If
doctors were informed that there was a 7% expected mortality for people undergo-
ing a certain surgery, they hesitated to recommend it; if on the other hand, they were
told there was a 93% chance of survival to the operation, they were more inclined to
recommend the surgery to their patients.
If this happens with medical professionals, what can you expect from the rest of
us? While there are several famous cases of fatally flawed individual decisions,
decisions at group level have not fared much better. At the group level, disastrous
decisions such as the invasion of the Bay of Pigs under President Kennedy or the
madness of investments in Internet companies have been also attributed to problems
associated with decision-making cognitive biases. Undoubtedly, there is a need for
decision-making methodologies that can help to minimize biases and increase the
likelihood of making effective decisions.

An amusing discussion of how people can make irrational decisions is provided by Dan Ariely in
1

Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions. Harper Perennial.
1.2 Decision-Making Methodologies 5

One of the reasons for the interest in working in groups in modern organizations
is precisely the possibility of minimizing cognitive biases and to obtain group par-
ticipation’s synergy; however, this has not proven to be the ultimate solution to the
problems of decision-making. Organizational psychology has shown that as part of
a group, individuals are also exposed to a number of problems that hinder group
decision-making (Forsyth, 2013). Among these group cognitive biases, we can
mention groupthinking, consisting of the individual’s desire not to act (or decide)
different than what seems the consensus in the group (Janis, 1972). Another group
bias is caused by power unbalance which makes the members of the group with less
power and influence try not to antagonize those of greater power in the group, etc.

1.2 Decision-Making Methodologies

Perhaps the best known method for decision-making, described by Benjamin

Franklin in a letter to Joseph Priestley, is the called Pros and Cons list. In this
method, the problem is clearly stated, alternative possible solutions are proposed,
and the pros and cons of each are established. Then, according to the importance of
each PRO/CON factor and how it can be traded with the others (for example, the
benefit/satisfaction provided by a specific PRO may be canceled out by the cost/pain
of two specific CONS), the best alternative is determined based on the net result of
this PRO/CON trading.
This method is, despite its limitations, a great improvement over simply follow-
ing one’s intuition to make a decision. The advantages of this method (and the
majority of decision-making methods in general) are that it allows: first, the struc-
turing of a problem that at first glance may not seem possible to structure; and sec-
ond, sharing the decision criteria with others to get more ideas and opinions. The
above approach works well for simple problems but has the disadvantage of not
being able to accurately quantify the relative importance of each factor to be traded.
Moreover, the process is complicated when the number of alternatives and factors
becomes very large. A better method is needed.
There are several methods of decision-making but most require specific training
in areas such as economics, operations research, and probability. However, what is
needed is a methodology that can be applied in a more natural way by
decision-makers.
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) developed by Professor Thomas Saaty in
1980 allows for structuring the decision hierarchically (to reduce its complexity)
and shows relationships between objectives (or criteria) and the possible alterna-
tives. Perhaps the biggest advantage of this method is that it allows the inclusion of
intangibles such as experience, subjective preferences, and intuition, in a logical
and structured way.
The popularity of this method has increased since its implementation as com-
puter software in the mid-1980s and the development of group decision support
systems such as Decision Lens (Decision Lens, 2015). The analytic hierarchy pro-
6 1 The Need for Another Decision-Making Methodology

cess has been used by institutions in over 50 countries worldwide and the Super
Decisions software (Super Decisions, 2015), available free of charge from the
Creative Decisions Foundation, allows a user-friendly application of the AHP meth-
odology (Creative Decisions Foundation, 2015). The Creative Decisions Foundation
and Super Decision software websites provide information on the latest develop-
ments and news of the method and its applications.

1.3 Conclusion

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) has been widely discussed and used since its
official appearance (Saaty, 2012). While there have been several discussions related
to some aspects of AHP theory and practice [see, for example, Brunnelli (2015)],
these objections have been addressed to the point that AHP constitutes one of the
most widely used multi-criteria decision-making methods worldwide due to its intu-
itiveness and mathematical rigor. From its origins in the academia and the govern-
ment to its use in Fortune 500 firms, it has moved to part of the essential tools of
modern managers and leaders.

References

Brunnelli, M. (2015). Introduction to the analytic hierarchy process. Cham: Springer.

Camerer, C. (1994). In J. H. Hagel & A. Roth (Eds.), Handbook of experimental psychology.
Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Creative Decisions Foundation. (2015). Creative Decision Foundation. Retrieved from http://
www.creativedecisions.net
Decision Lens. (2015). Decision Lens. Retrieved from http://www.decisionlens.com
Forsyth, D. R. (2013). Group dynamics (6th ed.). Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing.
Janis, I. L. (1972). Victims of group thinking. Boston: Houghton-Mifflin.
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking fast and slow. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Mintzberg, H. (1989). Mintzberg on management: Inside our strange world of organizations.
New York: The Free Press.
Piattelli-Palmerini, M. (1994). Inevitable illusions: How mistakes of reason rule our minds.
New York: Wiley.
Saaty, T. L. (2012). Decision making for leaders: The analytic hierarchy process for decisions in a
complex world (3rd Rev. ed.). Pittsburgh: RWS Publications.
Simon, H. A. (1960). The new science of management decision. New York: Harper & Row.
Super Decisions. (2015). Super Decisions. Retrieved from http://www.superdecisions.com
Chapter 2
Understanding the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract In this chapter, we will explain the fundamentals of the Analytic

Hierarchy Process. The reader is referred to the original Saaty’s (2012) discussion
of AHP or to Brunnelli’s (2015) for a theoretical introduction to the method. In this
book, AHP concepts will be explained from a practical point of view, using exam-
ples for greater clarity.

In this chapter, we will explain the fundamentals of the Analytic Hierarchy Process.
The reader is referred to the original Saaty’s (2012) discussion of AHP or to
Brunnelli’s (2015) for a theoretical introduction to the method. In this book, AHP
concepts will be explained from a practical point of view, using examples for greater
clarity.
To explain this method we will use a simple example1: Our goal is to purchase a
new car. Our purchase is based on different criteria such as cost, comfort, and safety
(the reader can think of many more but we will use only three for illustration pur-
poses). We could evaluate several alternatives but let us assume that we have only
two: Car 1 and Car 2. To analyze the decision of purchasing a car using the analytic
hierarchy process we should follow the next steps:
1. Develop a model for the decision: Break down the decision into a hierarchy of
goals, criteria, and alternatives.
2. Derive priorities (weights) for the criteria: The importance of criteria is com-
pared pairwise with respect to the desired goal to derive their weights. We then
check the consistency of judgments; that is, a review of the judgments is done in
order to ensure a reasonable level of consistency in terms of proportionality and
transitivity.
3. Derive local priorities (preferences) for the alternatives: Derive priorities or the
alternatives with respect to each criterion separately (following a similar process

1
For this chapter, it is recommended that the reader follows the calculations of this example using
a spreadsheet.
Electronic Supplementary Material The online version of this chapter (https://doi.org/
10.1007/978-3-319-68369-0_2) contains supplementary material, which is available to autho-
rized users.

© Springer International Publishing AG 2018 7

E. Mu, M. Pereyra-Rojas, Practical Decision Making using Super Decisions v3,
SpringerBriefs in Operations Research, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68369-0_2
8 2 Understanding the Analytic Hierarchy Process

as in the previous step, i.e., compare the alternatives pairwise with respect to
each criterion). Check and adjust the consistency as required.
4. Derive overall priorities (model synthesis): All alternative priorities obtained are
combined as a weighted sum—to take into account the weight of each criterion—
to establish the overall priorities of the alternatives. The alternative with the
highest overall priority constitutes the best choice.
5. Perform sensitivity analysis: A study of how changes in the weights of the crite-
ria could affect the result is done to understand the rationale behind the obtained
results.
6. Making a final decision: Based on the synthesis results and sensitivity analysis,
a decision can be made.
At this point, the reader may feel a little intimidated by terms such as judgments,
priorities, pairwise comparison, and consistency; however, the following discussion
will clarify these topics.

2.1 Developing a Model

The first step in an AHP analysis is to build a hierarchy for the decision. This is also
called decision modeling and it simply consists of building a hierarchy to analyze
the decision.
The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) structures the problem as a hierarchy.
Figure 2.1 shows the hierarchy proposed for our example. Note that the first level of
the hierarchy is our goal; in our example, buying a car. The second level in the hier-
archy is constituted by the criteria we will use to decide the purchase. In our

Fig. 2.1 Decision hierarchy for buying a car

2.2 Deriving Priorities (Weights) for the Criteria 9

Table 2.1 Saaty’s pairwise Verbal judgment Numeric value

comparison scale
Extremely important 9
8
Very strongly more important 7
6
Strongly more important 5
4
Moderately more important 3
2
Equally important 1

Table 2.2 Pairwise comparison matrix of criteria for buying a car

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety
Cost
Comfort
Safety

e­ xample, we have mentioned three criteria: cost, comfort, and safety. The third level
consists of the available alternatives.2 In this case: Car 1 and Car 2.
The advantages of this hierarchical decomposition are clear. By structuring the
problem in this way it is possible to better understand the decision to be achieved,
the criteria to be used, and the alternatives to be evaluated. This step is crucial and
this is where, in more complex problems, it is possible to request the participation
of experts to ensure that all criteria and possible alternatives have been considered.
Also note that in complex problems it may be necessary to include additional levels
in the hierarchy such as sub-criteria.

2.2 Deriving Priorities (Weights) for the Criteria

Not all the criteria will have the same importance. Therefore, the second step in the
AHP process is to derive the relative priorities (weights) for the criteria. It is called
relative because the obtained criteria priorities are measured with respect to each
other as we will see in the following discussion.
It is clear that when buying a car (as in other decisions), not all criteria are equally
important in a given time. For example, a student may give more importance to the
cost factor rather than to comfort and safety, while a parent may give more impor-
tance to the safety factor rather than to the others. Clearly, the importance or weight
of each criterion will be different and because of this, we first are required to derive
by pairwise comparisons the relative priority of each criterion with respect to each

2
Each criterion, alternative, and the goal are collectively referred as model elements.
10 2 Understanding the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Table 2.3 Pairwise comparison matrix with intensity judgments

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety
Cost 1 7 3
Comfort 1/7 1 1/3
Safety 1/3 3 1

Table 2.4 Column addition

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety
Cost 1.000 7.000 3.000
Comfort 0.143 1.000 0.333
Safety 0.333 3.000 1.000
Sum 1.476 11.000 4.333

Table 2.5 Normalized matrix

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety
Cost 0.677 0.636 0.692
Comfort 0.097 0.091 0.077
Safety 0.226 0.273 0.231

of the others using a numerical scale for comparison developed by Saaty (2012) as
shown in Table 2.1.3
To perform the pairwise comparison you need to create a comparison matrix of
the criteria involved in the decision, as shown in Table 2.2.
Cells in comparison matrices will have a value from the numeric scale shown in
Table 2.1 to reflect our relative preference (also called intensity judgment or simply
judgment) in each of the compared pairs. For example, if we consider that cost is
very strongly more important than the comfort factor, the cost-comfort comparison
cell (i.e., the intersection of the row “cost” and column “comfort”) will contain the
value 7 as shown in Table 2.3. Mathematically this means that the ratio of the impor-
tance of cost versus the importance of comfort is seven (cost/comfort = 7). Because
of this, the opposite comparison, the importance of comfort relative to the impor-
tance of cost, will yield the reciprocal of this value (comfort/cost = 1/7) as shown in
the comfort-cost cell in the comparison matrix in Table 2.3. The rationale is intui-
tively obvious. For example, if in daily life we say that an apple A is twice as big as
apple B (A/B = 2), this implies that apple B is half the size of apple A (B/A = 1/2).
Similarly, if we consider that cost is moderately more important than safety (cost/
safety = 3), we will enter 3 in the cost-safety cell (using the scale from Table 2.1)
and the safety-cost cell will contain the reciprocal 1/3 (safety/cost = 1/3). Finally, if
we feel that safety is moderately more important than comfort, the safety-comfort

3
In this figure, the intermediate values 2, 4, 6, and 8 are used to address situations of uncertainty.
For example, when the decision-maker is in doubt whether to rate a pairwise comparison as “mod-
erately more important (3)” or “strongly more important (5),” a possible solution is to rate it as
“From moderately to strongly more important”; that is, a 4.
2.2 Deriving Priorities (Weights) for the Criteria 11

Table 2.6 Calculation of priorities: row averages

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety Priority
Cost 0.677 0.636 0.692 0.669
Comfort 0.097 0.091 0.077 0.088
Safety 0.226 0.273 0.231 0.243

Table 2.7 Presentation of results: original judgments and priorities

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety Priority
Cost 1.000 7.000 3.000 0.669
Comfort 0.143 1.000 0.333 0.088
Safety 0.333 3.000 1.000 0.243

Table 2.8 Consistency indices for a randomly generated matrix

n 3 4 5 6
RI 0.58 0.9 1.12 1.24

cell will contain the value 3 and the comfortsafety cell will have the reciprocal 1/3.
Once all these judgments are entered in the pairwise comparison matrix (Table 2.2),
we obtain the results shown in Table 2.3.
Note in the comparison matrix of Table 2.3 that when the importance of a crite-
rion is compared with itself; for example, cost versus cost, comfort versus comfort,
or safety versus safety; the input value is 1 which corresponds to the intensity of
equal importance in the scale of Table 2.1. This is intuitively sound because the ratio
of the importance of a given criterion with respect to the importance of itself will
always be equal.
At this stage, you can see one of the great advantages of the analytic hierarchy
process: its natural simplicity. Regardless of how many factors are involved in mak-
ing the decision, the AHP method only requires to compare a pair of elements at any
time; something that, because of our pair anatomy (e.g., two hands), we have done
for centuries. Another important advantage is that it allows the inclusion of tangible
variables (e.g., cost) as well as intangible ones (e.g., comfort) as criteria in the deci-
sion. The comparison matrix (Table 2.3) shows the pairwise relative priorities for
the criteria. We now need to calculate the overall priorities or weights of the criteria.
There are two methods available for this purpose: the exact and the approximate.
Although we will not show the exact method in detail here, the general idea is
very simple. Raise the comparison matrix to powers (e.g., raise the matrix to the
power of two, raise the resulting matrix to the power of two again, and so forth) a
few times until all the columns become identical. This is called the limit matrix. At
this point, any of the matrix columns constitutes the desired set of priorities. This
calculation can be done in a spreadsheet but it is currently done very easily using
AHP-based software packages.
12 2 Understanding the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Table 2.9 Prioritization results

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety Priority
Cost 1.000 7.000 3.000 0.669
Comfort 0.143 1.000 0.333 0.088
Safety 0.333 3.000 1.000 0.243

Table 2.10 Priorities as factors

Buying a car Cost Comfort Safety
Criteria weights -> 0.669 0.088 0.243
Cost 1.000 7.000 3.000
Comfort 0.143 1.000 0.333
Safety 0.333 3.000 1.000

As we aim to explain roughly the elements of the AHP method, we will rather
use the approximate method in our example due to its simplicity. However, keep in
mind that this method provides a valid approximation to the overall weights only
when the comparison matrix has a very low inconsistency.4
The approximate method requires the normalization of the comparison matrix;
i.e., add the values in each column (Table 2.4).
Next, divide each cell by the total of the column (Table 2.5). The normalized
matrix is shown in Table 2.5.
From this normalized matrix, we obtain the overall or final priorities (Table 2.8)
by simply calculating the average value of each row (e.g., for the cost row: 0.677 +
0.636 + 0.692)/3 = 0.669).
Although there is no standardized way of presenting the results, showing the
comparison matrix with the original judgments (Table 2.4) along with the calculated
priorities (obtained in Table 2.6) is a useful way to see the judgments and priorities
at the same time, as it can be seen in Table 2.7.
According to the results in Table 2.7, it is clear that—for this example—we give
more importance to the cost criterion (0.669), followed by safety (0.243). The com-
fort factor has a minimum weight (0.088) in our purchasing decision. Another
important observation is that the pairwise comparison of criteria, through questions
such as to purchase your car, what is more important: cost or comfort?, allows us to
derive, based on our preferences, the final priorities or weights for the criteria. That
is, the priorities are not assigned arbitrarily but are derived based on our judgments
and preferences. These priorities have mathematical validity, as measurement val-
ues derived from a ratio scale, and have also an intuitive interpretation. From
Table 2.7 we can interpret that cost has 66.9% of the overall importance of the cri-
teria, followed by safety with 24.3% and comfort (8.8%), respectively.

4
Inconsistency will be explained later in our discussion.
Another random document with
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 "To complete the purchase of the yacht for Gwendolen. I wanted to give
it to her absolutely unencumbered. Mr. Tracy was selling some capital for
me and said I must wait till the following settling day for the cash, and I
asked Melville to lend me the hundred I needed until the matter was
completed. But he didn't send it. He never even answered my letter."

"He tells me he sent you a hundred pounds in notes," Sir Geoffrey said
distinctly. "Isn't that true?"

"No," said Ralph indignantly; "it's an absolute lie." He paced the room
in angry impatience. It seemed incredible that his own brother could be
capable of such an utterly unworthy trick. Sir Geoffrey closed his book with
a snap and pressed his lips together.

"I ought to have known you both better," he said; "but Melville's story
was so circumstantial, and there was the evidence of your letter, too. I was
completely taken in. But now I know what to do."

Ralph stopped abruptly.

"What are you going to do?" he asked.

"Instruct Tracy to take proceedings against Melville for getting money

under false pretences."

"But that's punishable with imprisonment," said Ralph aghast.

"Certainly it is," said Sir Geoffrey grimly.

"But you can't make a convict of my brother, and your nephew!"

"Our relationship to him is our misfortune," said Sir Geoffrey, "not our
fault. I shall do what I say."

"Look here, Uncle Geoffrey," said Ralph excitedly, "after all, this is
largely my affair. I will give you back the hundred pounds—I've got the
money now—and I will go to town at once and square accounts with
Melville. Did he tell you where he was staying?"
 "No," said his uncle; "I did not enquire."

"Well, I'm sure to get news of him at Jermyn Street, if he isn't actually
there. Promise to abandon all idea of prosecution, and leave this in my
hands. Promise?"

Sir Geoffrey looked with pleasure at his nephew as he stood erect before
him, glowing with just indignation, but with chivalrous desire to spare his
brother this crowning shame.

"How you two fellows are brothers passes my comprehension," he said.

"Well, Ralph, I tell you what I will do. I'll give you a week—you need not
go up to town again to-day, for that would be hard on Gwen. I'll give you a
week, and if you can make Melville disgorge the money I'll take it back
with uncommon satisfaction. If you fail, I reserve liberty of action."

"That's fair, I suppose," said Ralph reluctantly; then he added more

hopefully, "but it will be all right; of course, it will be all right."

Sir Geoffrey shook his head doubtfully, but the mellow roar of the gong
reverberated through the house announcing luncheon, and he welcomed the
interruption.

"Shake hands, my boy," he said. "I'm sorry I misjudged you, even for a
moment. And now come along, or Gwen will think I've frightened away
your appetite."

He linked his arm within his nephew's, and went into the dining-room
with all his wonted cheerfulness restored.

CHAPTER V.

KINDRED AND AFFINITY.

 Possession of money has an invigorating effect upon the majority of
people, and Melville, who like most gamblers lived only in the present,
awoke in the morning feeling a new man because of the open cheque for
£100 which he had secured the night before. No qualms of conscience
disturbed his equanimity because of the device he had adopted to obtain it.
As soon as his toilette and breakfast were completed he could get the
money from the bank, and the future, with its difficulties and complications,
might be left to take care of itself. The solid satisfaction derived from the
possession of money was enough for the moment.

Moreover, to-day contained an element of surprise in the shape of his

pending visit to his unknown relative, and next to money there is probably
nothing that has so much charm for the average gambler as the element of
surprise, had any kindred spirit been with him at the time Melville would
have made wagers upon the age and appearance of this Lady Holt, of whose
existence he had never heard before. She was old, of course, and most
likely intensely disagreeable; incompatibility of temper was doubtless the
reason of her separation from Sir Geoffrey, and desire to avoid scandal the
explanation of her complete seclusion from the world. The phrasing of her
letter showed that she was precise, and upon that fragmentary piece of
evidence Melville erected in imagination a complete living personality, in
much the same way as scientists "restore" an entire prehistoric mammoth
from a single tooth.

He dressed with particular care, and after an early breakfast went

cheerfully downstairs and drove to his uncle's bank. Then, with eighteen
five-pound notes in his pocket book and ten pounds in cash in his waistcoat,
he was in a position to spend in a sufficiently agreeable manner the hours
that intervened before he was due at South Kensington.

A refresher, in the shape of a sherry and bitters at the club, was followed
by a delicate but entirely adequate luncheon at the Dieu-donnée, and
Melville's enjoyment of it was not diminished by the fact that, happening to
meet a casual acquaintance there, he lunched at the same table, and
suggested that they should toss to decide which of the twain should pay the
joint account, with the result that the casual acquaintance lost. Evidently the
fickle jade was smiling on Melville; a couple of games of billiards followed
the luncheon, and another refresher the billiards, and in high good humour
Melville sauntered down the Ladies' Mile, preparatory to driving from
Albert Gate to The Vale.

Opposite the French Embassy he parted from his friend.

"Sorry I can't ask you to come with me, old man," he said genially, "but
I'm obliged to pay a duty visit to an aged aunt."

The friend expressed his sincere commiseration, but Melville only

laughed.

"It's a very little flaw in an otherwise perfect day. You must lunch with
me next time, and I will give you your revenge at billiards," and carefully
choosing a well-appointed hansom he drove away.

The Vale, South Kensington, is a little-known cul-de-sac lying just off

the Fulham Road. It contains but half-a-dozen houses, with trim lawns in
front and quite large gardens in the rear; great elms shade the houses, and
the remoteness from the main road makes them very quiet; in all of them
are French windows and small verandahs, and there is an air of quietude
and refinement about the place that makes it very attractive.

"The old lady does herself pretty well," thought Melville to himself as
he walked up the gravelled path and noticed the close-cropped lawn and the
blaze of geraniums and petunias. "I wonder what she knows about me, and
what line I'd better take! The interesting musician might be diplomatic
perhaps."

He thought that the maid who opened the door looked curiously at him
as he enquired whether Lady Holt was at home, but, after all, that was a
trifling matter, capable of bearing many interpretations. His interest was,
however, more fully aroused by the drawing-room into which he was shown
to await his aunt's coming, for it was not at all the sort of environment in
which he had imagined he would find Sir Geoffrey's wife. It was essentially
the drawing-room of a worldly woman of the world, furnished with taste,
but evidently at great cost; photographs and silver boxes, enamels and
ivories were scattered in profusion over the many tables, water colours by
rising artists covered the walls, cushions and flowers were everywhere.

"I shall have to readjust my preconceived notions of my elderly

relative," he said to himself as he took a rapid survey of the pretty room;
"this is a veritable canary's cage."

Then the door opened, and at the rustle of silk petticoats he turned to
make a formal bow to his aunt. But as he turned, an exclamation of surprise
escaped his lips and his single eye-glass dropped upon the floor, for the
woman who entered was no precise and ringletted old lady, but the one who
had asked him for his card at Monte Carlo, and who had expressed such
sympathy with him when he was reduced to the necessity of applying for
the viaticum. It was indeed no other than the charming Mrs. Sinclair.

She came forward with perfect self-possession, but a gleam of

amusement lurked in her eyes.

"This is really a most astonishing experience," Melville said, as he

bowed over her hand. "You are quite the last person I expected to see."

"Not the last you wanted to see, I hope," she replied, "but I confess
delight is not the predominant expression upon your face at the moment.
Won't you sit down?"

Melville picked up his monocle and polished it carefully before

readjusting it in his eye.

"But tell me," he persisted, "what are you doing here?"

"Living here," Mrs. Sinclair answered. "What else do you suppose?"

"I can't quite sort things," Melville said apologetically. "To begin with,
you see, I had never heard until last night that there was a Lady Holt, and
when I got her note asking me to call here to-day I tried to picture what she
would be like."

"What was the result of your efforts?" Mrs. Sinclair enquired.

 Melville laughed slightly.

"Well, I'm bound to admit that I imagined my uncle's choice in women

would be early Victorian, so to speak, and I don't think it's anything but a
compliment to say that the early Victorian brand isn't very likely to agree
with you. If you like Lady Holt, there is hope for me."

"I like her very much," Mrs. Sinclair said. "Mr. Melville, it isn't quite
fair, perhaps, to lay snares for young men, and you evidently don't grasp the
situation. You remember your last night at Monte Carlo?"

"It was not the sort of night to forget readily," Melville replied grimly. "I
never had such monstrous bad luck at the tables before."

"You gave me one of your cards and I promised to write to you."

"You did," said Melville.

"I have kept my promise," said Mrs. Sinclair. "I wrote to you yesterday
and asked you to come to see me. I am Lady Holt."

The astonishment depicted on Melville's face was ludicrous, and Mrs.

Sinclair rippled over with mirth.

"I never thought to see you so taken aback," she said. "What I like so
much about English gentlemen is that they are so imperturbable, and now
you are gazing at me as if I were a freak."

"Really, I beg your pardon," Melville said. "but to think how grossly I
have misjudged Sir Geoffrey!"

"Come, that's much better," Mrs. Sinclair replied. "Yes, Mr. Ashley, the
confession has to be made; I am your aunt."

"I'm uncommonly delighted to hear it," Melville said heartily, "and I've
only one regret in learning the fact."

"And that is——?" his new-found relative enquired.

 "That I did not know it long ago," Melville replied. His wonted
composure returned, and with it his wonted desire to stand well in the
opinion of those in whose company he happened to be—a desire, it may be
said, characteristic of many men who drift into bad lives from weakness
rather than from natural vice. "Tell me, have you refrained from claiming
relationship with me all this time because you heard I was a bad lot?"

"I perceive you are not expert in drawing inferences," Mrs. Sinclair
said; "one does not associate the particularly goody-goody type of young
man with Monte Carlo, and that is where I saw you first."

"That is true," Melville admitted. "I must plead guilty to not being
goody-goody. By the way, am I to call you 'aunt'?"

Mrs. Sinclair shuddered.

"Certainly not," she said emphatically; "there is no necessity to draw

public attention to the question of my age."

"What am I to call you?" he persisted.

"Call me Mrs. Sinclair," she said. "How old are you?"

"Thirty-five," Melville answered. "Why?"

"Then you are old enough to call me Lavender when we are alone," she
said. "Out of doors it had better be Mrs. Sinclair, I suppose. It is a
censorious world."

She leaned back in her chair and surveyed her nephew critically; the
scrutiny was satisfactory, and she was glad of the impulse that had
prompted her to disclose her identity to him. Yet, shrewd and clever woman
as she was, she had taken a step which, while it could never be retraced,
was the first towards the undoing of them both. There were other things in
her life which in her hours of reflection she regretted, not least among them
being her separation from a husband whose good qualities she fully
recognised, but nothing in the past had been so fraught with peril to herself
as this alliance with her husband's nephew, which she owed to a single
moment of caprice.

"Confess now," she said presently, "you are burning with curiosity to
know all about everything?"

"That is a comprehensive way of putting it," he laughed, "but it is true.

Tell me everything that is necessary, and as much more as you think fit."

"The only thing that is necessary," Mrs. Sinclair replied, "is that I
actually am Sir Geoffrey Holt's wife. I married him years ago, when I was
too young to realise all that marriage means, especially marriage to a man
many years older than oneself. And—it didn't answer. That is really all."
She had no intention of telling Melville very much about herself, and, of
course, he could not cross-examine her. "He had not come into the title
then," she went on, "and indeed there was no reason for supposing he ever
would, for his brother was quite young enough to have married and had
sons. Perhaps——" She paused, and Melville took advantage of the pause
to give expression to the thought that was uppermost in his mind.

"I wonder that his marriage has been so completely forgotten. I never
heard of it, and I'm quite sure my brother never has, yet he has been like a
son to Sir Geoffrey, and knows a lot about his affairs."

Mrs. Sinclair flushed a little.

"Sir Geoffrey is a very proud man. He always was; indeed, that had a
great deal to do with our mutual incompatibility, and proud men are apt to
hold their tongues about their failures. Oh, yes!" she said, laughing, though
there was no mirth in her laughter, "it was a dismal failure, and so we
agreed to separate and never trouble each other again."

"And you never have?" said Melville.

"We never have."

"Sir Geoffrey is a very rich man," Melville remarked, following the line
of his own thoughts.
 "I believe he is," said Mrs. Sinclair indifferently. "All the money in the
world doesn't make some things worth while."

"But I suppose he is very generous to you?"

"I wouldn't touch a penny of his money," said Mrs. Sinclair vehemently.

Melville, of course, dropped the subject, but noted her reply for future
use. What he wanted to ascertain most at the moment was Lady Holt's
feeling for her husband, but she gave him no opportunity.

"What's your brother like?" she enquired. "Anything like you?"

"Nothing," said Melville shortly. "Ralph is a paragon of all the virtues

and I'm—not."

"And he's like a son to Sir Geoffrey?" said Mrs. Sinclair. "Is he to be his
heir?"

"I don't know," Melville answered moodily. "I suppose so; but, as a
matter of fact, Sir Geoffrey hasn't made his will, so I don't know what he
will do with his money."

Mrs. Sinclair yawned. The conversation really did not interest her much,
and she had her own reasons for not wishing to let it get too intimate. She
had taken a fancy to Melville when she first saw him in the Riviera; he
belonged to the type of man in whose company she was most at home, and
she foresaw a certain amount of pleasurable excitement in which she could
participate with him without being worried by demonstrations of a more
affectionate interest, which men not related to her were apt to make. A
nephew is safer than a cousin.

"You must ask me to dine with you," she said, "and we will develop our
acquaintance gradually. I hate finding out all about people at once and
having nothing left to learn."

"Dine with me to-night," said Melville promptly. The hundred pounds

were burning a hole in his pocket, and he felt convinced that more would be
forthcoming now from the same source. "Where shall it be?"

"Wherever you like," Mrs. Sinclair replied. "I'm always interested in

people's varying ideas of hospitality. Come here for me at half-past seven
and take me to the appointed place. Only don't tell me now where it is to
be."

"All right," said Melville with alacrity. He liked her point of view and
felt amazingly sympathetic already. Moreover, he recognised as clearly as
she did the value of their relationship as a preventative of mutual
misunderstandings. "I will go and fix it up. 'Pon my honour, I'm awfully
delighted about this."

"Respect my confidence," she said gravely. "I may rely on that?"

"Absolutely," he answered. "I never interfere with other people's private

business. It's not my form; and, besides, I'm so grateful to you for
recognising me that I'm not going to forfeit a good thing."

Mrs. Sinclair was satisfied. She rang the bell for the maid to open the
door, and smiled graciously upon her nephew.

"I hope you're going to be a great success," she said, as he rose to go.
"There is an element of romance in the way fate has brought us together
that is fascinating, and really you are a very creditable nephew."

Melville smiled sardonically. His aunt's husband held such a different

opinion!

"I am a particularly fortunate one, I think," was all he said, and as he

went out into the Fulham Road he thought the sun had never shone so
brightly. Fortune had turned her wheel again, and his gambler's soul
exulted.
 CHAPTER VI.

BRAVADO.

It was, indeed, with a very similar sense of satisfaction to that enjoyed

by a man who, when playing cut-throat euchre, finds the joker in his hand,
that Melville contemplated the advent of Mrs. Sinclair into his life. In many
respects she was a charming woman; vigorous and resourceful in
consequence of her somewhat adventurous career, but womanly and free
from affectation. Moreover, if she could not claim entire exoneration from
the charge of being an adventuress, she was entitled to several important
limitations in the term; she gambled, it is true, and led an extravagant life,
but she did both out of her own resources, and did not prey upon society as
do most of the evening-gowned frequenters of the Casino. What other
skeletons might be hidden in the secret cupboard of her life, Melville did
not yet trouble to surmise; he assumed that among them was the grisly relic
of her marriage with his uncle. The marriage had been a failure; the couple
had separated and agreed to let the story be forgotten; "Sinclair" was merely
a nom-de-guerre, and everything was capable of a perfectly satisfactory
explanation, with the exception of her financial independence. Melville
could not understand the feeling which prompted her to refuse assistance
from her husband, more especially in such a case as this, where she might
dictate her own terms for consenting to suppress the fact of her existence.
What her motive was in so doing was one of the first things Melville
intended to ascertain; there might be money in the knowledge. But the first
thing he intended to do was to tell Sir Geoffrey that he knew this amazing
secret of the marriage, for he felt convinced that he could make money by
holding his tongue on that subject to the world at large.

Such were the thoughts that passed through Melville's mind as he

walked from the station to The Grange at Fairbridge, where the Austens
lived. With him to decide was to act, and the previous night he had resolved
to adopt a bold policy and face Sir Geoffrey and Ralph at once; they had
had time to compare notes about the hundred pounds, and a stormy
interview with them both was inevitable, but it possessed no terrors for
Melville now. He guessed correctly that for the credit of the family neither
of them would detail the facts to the Austens, with whom he was
particularly anxious to stand well. Too selfish a man to be capable of real
love for any woman, he yet liked Gwendolen better than any other woman
he had ever seen, and he was quite willing to "range himself" if she would
be his wife. That she was engaged to his brother troubled him very little.
Engagements had been broken off before now, and the idea of cutting Ralph
out had a certain piquancy that rendered the attempt worth making.

Looking delightfully cool and well-bred in his grey flannel suit and
straw hat, with a turn-down collar that seemed to suggest an innocent
simplicity of character, Melville walked slowly down the hill from the
station and presented himself at the Austens' door. The ladies were in the
garden, the servant informed him, and there Melville sought them,
confident of a friendly greeting from them both.

Mrs. Austen was unaffectedly glad to see him. She had a tolerant feeling
for nearly all young men, and Melville's marvellous gift as a musician had
an especial charm for her. To Gwendolen he was Ralph's brother, and
hitherto Ralph had championed Melville's cause, with the result that the girl
was disposed to regard him as a somewhat maligned young man. So to-day
they made much of him, and, under the influence of their warm welcome
and gentle refinement, Melville was at his best.

"I've been sowing wild oats at Monte Carlo," he said gently, "and I
found it vanity. So I've come home. No, I had no adventures and met
nobody I knew. I lost all my money, and I'm very sorry for myself."

He congratulated Gwendolen on her engagement to Ralph, and there

was a touch of pathos in his voice that proved him to be a consummate
actor. Altogether, he enjoyed himself hugely, and awaited the critical
moment of meeting his brother with actual pleasure. Ralph was expected
early in the afternoon, and Melville lunched at the Grange and occupied the
centre of its little stage with much complacency.

After luncheon Gwendolen remained indoors to watch for Ralph, and

Melville sat in the verandah with Mrs. Austen and waxed confidential. She
liked to be regarded as the recipient of the confidences of young men, and
Melville played upon her amiable weakness, being careful to invent such
peccadilloes only as would not strain her charity unduly.

"Heaven divides its gifts very unequally," he remarked presently.

"Why that platitude?" asked Mrs. Austen.

"I was thinking of Ralph and myself," he said. "Of course, Sir Geoffrey
has been equally generous to us both, but I notice that Ralph gets all the
affection. He was always Uncle Geoffrey's favourite, and now he is
engaged to Gwen." He sighed pathetically, and Mrs. Austen considered.

"I think your uncle is just as fond of you as he is of Ralph," she said,
"but you're not a home bird and your brother is. Really, I don't think Sir
Geoffrey could have been kinder to you if you had been his own son."

"Not kinder," Melville said, "but fonder, more affectionate. You have
known him a long time, Mrs. Austen. Why do you suppose he never
married?"

"I have often wondered," Mrs. Austen said, "but I never met him until
he came into the title and estates, and he was not a young man then. He may
never have wanted to marry, or he may have had some disappointment. At
all events, it's an excellent thing for you boys that he never did."

"Excellent," Melville assented heartily. Mrs. Austen evidently had no

suspicion of the facts; that meant that Sir Geoffrey did not want her to know
them, and that, too, was excellent. "Ah! here comes Ralph, dancing on air."

Judging by the expression on Ralph's face, dancing on air was a

disagreeable mode of progression. He was, indeed, furious at finding
Melville thus established in the heart of the citadel; he was conscious, too,
of a disadvantage in being thus taken by surprise. Confident in the justice of
his indignation, he could have invaded Melville's chambers and demanded
explanations and apologies for the fraud; here all the force of his attack
would be wasted in the interval before he could deliver it.
 He made no offer to shake hands, and, flushed with anger, he compared
unfavourably with Melville, sitting so imperturbable, and prepared for all
contingencies.

Melville employed every little artifice of which he was capable to

heighten the contrast between his brother and himself, of which he saw
Mrs. Austen was conscious. He made room for Ralph upon the verandah,
and chatted gaily of a hundred trifles, but to all his flippancies Ralph
returned only monosyllabic answers, appearing awkward and ill-mannered
even in Gwendolen's biassed judgment.

At last Melville rose to go, and with alacrity Ralph rose too.

Melville protested politely.

"Don't let me take you away, old man," he said.

"But I want to have a talk with you," Ralph answered.

"Thought you weren't particularly pleased to see me," Melville returned

placidly, "but I'm glad I was wrong. Good-bye, Mrs. Austen, and thanks
awfully for a jolly time. May I come again soon?"

"Do," she answered, "there's always cold luncheon and a warm

welcome here for you." She made the remark pointedly, for she was a little
vexed with Ralph. She even went so far as to restrain Gwendolen from
accompanying the brothers to the gate, and as they disappeared at the end of
the drive Ralph was conscious of almost being in disgrace with his future
mother-in-law.

Outside, however, on the main road his embarrassment vanished.

"What the deuce do you mean by coming here like this?" he said
angrily.

"My dear Ralph," said Melville coolly, "The Grange doesn't belong to
you, nor does the Manor House—yet. I've been to The Grange because I
wanted to see the Austens, and now I'm going to the Manor House because
I want to see Sir Geoffrey."

Ralph was unfeignedly astonished.

"You want to see Sir Geoffrey?" he gasped.

"I do," said Melville. "Why not?"

"I wonder you have the audacity to look him in the face again," said
Ralph hotly. "You are a liar and a thief."

"Go slow, Ralph," said Melville, "go slow. It seems to me you're off
your chump. If your engagement hasn't turned your brain, tell me what all
this pother is about, and leave mud-slinging till afterwards. What do you
mean?"

Ralph was almost deceived by his brother's calmness; at any rate, it had
the effect of making him struggle to regain command of his own temper.

"I wrote to you when you were at Monte Carlo," he said more quietly,
"and asked you to lend me a hundred pounds."

"That's so," said Melville. "Sorry I couldn't oblige you, but I didn't even
read your letter till I was on my way home, and then I was broke myself."

"But you got a hundred pounds out of Sir Geoffrey," spluttered Ralph.

"I did," said Melville. "I hope you did the same."

"Good heavens, man!" cried Ralph, as angrily as before; "don't try your
vile swindles on me too. You told Sir Geoffrey you lent me that hundred
pounds and got him to hand you over an open cheque for the amount in
repayment of what you said was my debt, leaving him to get explanations
from me afterwards."

"I hope the old man wasn't very crusty," said Melville sweetly.
 "But your whole story was an infernal lie," roared Ralph, "and you got
that money by a vulgar, low-down swindle. You are a liar, Melville, and a
thief. I wish to heaven Sir Geoffrey had kicked you out of the house before
he parted with the cheque."

"I daresay you do," Melville replied, unmoved; "but really, Ralph,
you've had your whack out of the old buck, and now you're going to marry
the Austen money you needn't grudge me a bit, need you? It's not exactly
brotherly."

The sneering affront goaded Ralph almost to madness.

"You can thank me that you've not been arrested already for getting that
money under false pretences," he said, livid with passion. "If Sir Geoffrey
had had his own way you would have been, and 'pon my word, I'm
beginning to be sorry I begged you off."

"Perhaps it isn't too late even yet," said Melville, no less calmly than
before, "but I fancy you are exaggerating. Sir Geoffrey is always
intemperate in his language, but I can't believe he would adopt such
extremely unpleasant measures as the prosecution of his own nephew.
However, I'll talk to him about it. I came down with the intention of doing
so after I left The Grange."

Ralph was nonplussed. Such unlimited assurance as that displayed by

Melville was outside his experience, and it even began to have some effect
upon him.

"I think it was a mean and dirty trick," he said, "to make out that I owed
you anything when I didn't, but that part of the business you can settle with
your own conscience. What are you going to do now about the money?"

"How do you mean?" Melville enquired innocently.

"Well," said Ralph, "I persuaded Sir Geoffrey to drop the idea of legal
proceedings by saying that as you had used my name the matter ought to be
left in my hands. I've been to town to get the money, and I repaid him this
morning."
 "That's really awfully good of you," Melville said effusively. "I am
infinitely obliged to you, but I'm afraid I shall have to owe it to you for a
little while."

"It's simple waste of time to talk to you," said Ralph with scorn, "but
there's one more remark I have to make, and you may as well remember it,
for I mean what I say. I can't undo the fact that you are my brother, but I can
do a good deal to prevent it from being forced on my attention, and one way
is to avoid seeing you. Now, in future I'll trouble you to keep away from
The Grange."

Melville coloured. This was a contingency he had not foreseen, and for
a moment he lost his judgment.

"Jealous, eh?" he enquired, with ill-affected sarcasm. He was no coward

physically, but he almost quailed before the blaze in his brother's eyes.
Ralph did not trouble to fling back the taunt. With suppressed passion he
spoke rapidly and distinctly, and each word flicked Melville on the raw.

"You are a contemptible swindler, and if you only have rope enough
you'll hang yourself in the end. I'm quits with Sir Geoffrey over your last
fraud, and it's worth every penny of the money to have learnt to know you
as you are; but now I do know you I'll take jolly good care that you don't
hang about my friends. Sir Geoffrey has ordered you out of the Manor
House, and I order you out of The Grange. Go there again, and I'll tell Mrs.
Austen all about this business and twist your neck into the bargain."

Melville forced a laugh.

"It will be time enough for you to order me out of houses when you
possess any. When you are master of The Grange I shall keep clear of the
place, you may be sure. Until then I shall call upon Mrs. Austen whenever I
choose."

"If you go to The Grange I shall tell Mrs. Austen what has happened,"
Ralph repeated, "and she will order you out then herself."
 "I dare you to do it," said Melville. In reality the idea filled him with
uneasiness, but he was too shrewd to show it. Instead, he remarked
reflectively, as if considering Ralph's interests only, "Mrs. Austen might
begin to think she was allowing her daughter to marry into a queer family,
supposing for the moment that she took everything you said for gospel."

Ralph drove his hands deep into his pockets. Honesty such as his often
seems very stupid when confronted with the cleverness of a knave, and he
felt unequal to a discussion with his brother. But he wished he had been less
loyal to him in the past, less sturdy an advocate for his defence when Sir
Geoffrey arraigned him. It was humiliating to think how completely
Melville had taken him in. They walked in silence to the Manor House, and
Ralph paused by the gate.

"I'm not going to argue with you, and I have nothing to add to what I
said about The Grange. Go there and you'll see. Here is the Manor House. If
you take my advice you will leave me here and get back to town by the next
train."

"When I ask your advice I'll consider about taking it," Melville
answered gently; he saw how his own coolness angered and flurried Ralph.
"As for The Grange, Mrs. Austen has kindly invited me to dine there and
bring my violin, and I need scarcely say I have accepted. And as for Sir
Geoffrey, I have come down to see him, and if he's at home I will see him
now; if he is out I shall wait."

"You are beyond me," Ralph said hopelessly. "Well, I don't want to keep
you away from Sir Geoffrey if you are anxious to see him, but if I were in
your shoes, which, thank heaven, I am not, I would blow out my brains
rather than face him. I don't believe you have any shame left."

He opened the gate and, with Melville, walked up the drive. As they
came in sight of the house, however, his mind shrank from the prospect of
having to be present at so painful an interview between his uncle and
brother as he felt sure this one must be. He stopped abruptly.

"You will probably find Sir Geoffrey in the library," he said. "I am
going down to the houseboat."
 "All right," said Melville unconcernedly. "I dare say I shall see you
again later. If Sir Geoffrey asks me to stay, I will. By-bye," and noting with
amusement the incredulous surprise written on Ralph's countenance he
nodded cheerfully to him and walked in through the open doorway of the
Manor House.

CHAPTER VII.

MELVILLE LEADS TRUMPS.

Melville possessed in an eminent degree the gift of winning the

affection of his inferiors. Where no conflict of interest was possible he gave
full play to the sympathetic part of his nature, which was his as it is the
nature of all musicians. It was part of his policy, too, to stand well in the
favour of those upon whom his comfort depended, and thus, although he
was indifferent to the appeals of those who were inconvenienced by his
indebtedness to them, and would resort to any subterfuge rather than pay his
tradesmen's bills, yet he was a lenient and considerate master to his valet in
Jermyn Street, was regarded with admiration by the hall porters of his club,
and was held in affection by the old retainers at the Manor House, who had
known him for so many years.

With Martin Somers, Sir Geoffrey's butler, Melville was an especial

favourite. The old man had taught him all he knew of outdoor sports, and
had often stood his friend when in earlier days the boy was in disgrace with
his uncle.

Melville turned from the hall into the dining-room and rang the bell. It
was cool and shady in this room, and Melville was conscious of a pang of
regret at the knowledge that the place would never be his. His life had been
full of variety and excitement, but it had cost him all chance of ever being
master of the Manor House. Already he was an unwelcome visitor, and
when in course of time it passed into Ralph's possession, its doors would
very probably be closed to him altogether.

"Ralph is a stupid clown," he muttered, "but I'm not sure that he hasn't
done better for himself than I have. To own this place and be Gwen's
husband should be good enough for anyone."

The sigh that escaped him was born of sincerity, but he turned briskly to
face his immediate task as the butler came in answer to the ring. Melville
shook hands with him, making no reference to his previous evening visit to
his uncle.

"Here I am again, Martin," he said cheerfully, "'Pon my word, it's good

to see you."

"You've been abroad, Master Melville?" Martin asked.

"Yes," said Melville; "same old racket, same old place, same old luck."

Martin shook his head.

"I've no faith in Monte Carlo," he remarked austerely; "never heard of

any good coming from there."

"That's rude," said Melville, "seeing that I've just come from there. How
is Sir Geoffrey?"

"Pretty well, sir," the butler replied; "I may say very well."

"He's a wonderful old chap," said Melville. "He'll be marrying soon and
having a family of his own; see if he doesn't."

"Sir Geoffrey never took any account of the ladies," Martin remarked.
"It's a pity, in some ways; but, bless you, sir, he's got all the family a man
needs in Master Ralph and yourself."

"Too much, perhaps," said Melville. "Go and tell him I'm here, Martin,
will you."