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SWARAJ MH GE 24
SWARAJ MH GE 24
In the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape in Maharashtra,
one of India's most in uential states, is marked by signi cant developments and
challenges. The state has recently experienced a major political shift due to party splits,
notably within the Shiv Sena and NCP, leading to realignments and new alliances.
These internal divisions have reshaped the political dynamics and added complexity to
the electoral scenario.
Additionally, Maharashtra is grappling with several critical issues that are in uencing
voter sentiment. Economic concerns, including unemployment and farmers' distress,
remain at the forefront. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the state's
economy and public health systems has also left lasting e ects that are being keenly felt
by the electorate. Infrastructure development, urbanization challenges, and
environmental concerns are other pivotal issues that voters are considering as they head
to the polls.
This opinion poll aims to gauge the current political sentiments and voter inclinations
across Maharashtra, providing insights into the potential outcomes of the upcoming
elections. By analyzing voter preferences, party performance, and key issues in uencing
the electorate, this poll seeks to o er a comprehensive overview of the political climate
in Maharashtra as we approach the 2024 Lok Sabha elections results.
Re ecting on past scenarios, Maharashtra has a history of dynamic political shifts. The
2019 Lok Sabha elections, for instance, saw the emergence of strong coalitions and the
dominance of key parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena
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PAST SCENARIOS 2009, 2014 & 2019
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2009 Lok Sabha Elections:
In 2009, the Indian National Congress (INC) emerged as the leading party in Maharashtra, winning 17
out of the 48 parliamentary seats. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), a key ally of the Congress in
Maharashtra, also performed well, securing 8 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 9 seats, while
the Shiv Sena secured 11 seats. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Raj Thackeray, won a
solitary seat.
The 2014 Lok Sabha elections witnessed a signi cant shift in Maharashtra's political landscape. The
BJP, led by Narendra Modi, made substantial gains, capitalizing on the "Modi wave." The BJP won 23
seats, emerging as the single largest party in the state. Its ally, the Shiv Sena, secured 18 seats. The INC-
NCP alliance faced a severe setback, with the Congress winning just 2 seats and the NCP securing 4
seats. The MNS failed to win any seats in this election.
In 2019, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance continued its dominance in Maharashtra. The alliance won a
landslide victory, with the BJP securing 23 seats and the Shiv Sena winning 18 seats. The INC-NCP
alliance improved its performance compared to 2014, with the Congress winning 1 seat and the NCP
securing 4 seats. The MNS again failed to win any seats.
Analysis:
- BJP's Ascendancy: The BJP's rise in Maharashtra's Lok Sabha elections is noteworthy, particularly
from 2014 onwards. The party successfully capitalized on Narendra Modi's leadership and
nationalistic sentiments, gaining signi cant ground in the state.
- Shiv Sena's Role: The Shiv Sena has maintained its position as a key player in Maharashtra politics,
albeit with uctuations in its seat share. Its alliance with the BJP has been crucial in securing power
at the center as well as in the state.
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L O K SA BHA EL EC TIONS 2 024 - M AH AR ASHT RA PHA SES
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L O K SA BHA EL EC TION S 20 2 4 - MA HA RA SHTR A PRE DI C TI O NS
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28 Mumbai North-East Mihir Kotecha BJP 56.37 922760 1636890
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No of Seats
Name of Party Probable Winning
Contested
11
INC 17
16
SS - UBT 21
7
NCP - SP 10
34
I.N.D.I.A 48
No of Seats
Name of Party Probable Winning
Contested
BJP 28 11
SS - ES 15 2
NCP - AP 4 0
RSP 1 0
NDA 48 13
IND - 1
NDA - 13
I.N.D.I.A = 34 + 1 ( IND ) = 35
My election prediction forecasts a margin of ±5 Seats. Therefore, I expect the final result to be
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