LOKSABHA ELECTIONS 2024

EXIT POLL

The exit polls/post poll was conducted in 8 Lok Sabha seats of Maharashtra by a
team of volunteers. More than predicting the outcome in individual contests/seats,
the trends that emerge out of the exit poll may be serve as useful tool for further
analysis.

In most constituencies, we asked the following 5 questions :

1. Important issues for the voter
2. Rating Modi Government performance as - a) Excellent/Good b) Average c) Poor
3. In last years, has your family's financial position a) Improved b)
Slipped/Deteriorated c) Is Same
4. Whose performance as CM is better - a) Mr. Uddhav Thackeray b) Mr. Eknath
Shinde
5. Whom did you vote

Acknowledgement: Profusely thankful to the team of volunteers, including friends for

putting in the efforts and going from village to village in the below constituencies...
especially in the scorching heat. Also thankful to X/Twitter acquaintances for their
valuable inputs.

Exit Polls conducted under the guidance of Mr. Arun Anandagiri. Feel free to reach
out on : arungiri@gmail.com.

I've always enjoyed conducting exit polls from college days (1999) for the fascinating
insights into voter's mind... and the surprise data. This time was no exception.

Warm Regards,
Arun Anandagiri
EXIT POLL #1

BARAMATI
Sample size - 1200

EXIT POLL TREND

Mrs. Supriya Sule (NCP-SP) appears to
be winning in prestige battle with Mrs.
Sunetra Pawar (NCP)

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Mrs. Sule has large leads in Bhor & Key Factor :

Purandar. In Bhor, as per our data, Mrs. Sule's big leads in Bhor & Purandar
Mrs. Sule is leading by a 2-1 margin. coupled with a narrow deficit in
Khadakwasla are likely to propel Mrs. Sule
These 2 Assembly constituencies are
to victory.
likely to give a lead of 80,000 - 1 lakh
votes to Mrs. Sule.
Mrs. Sule is also ahead in Daund & Indapur assembly segments, though
by smaller margins than Bhor & Purandar.
Mrs. Sunetra Pawar's lead in Khadakwasla is in single digits (52-45)
compared to the 26% lead that BJP candidate got in 2019 elections.
In Baramati assembly segment, Mrs. Pawar seems to have a narrow lead,
but with a caveat - 20% of respondents in this assembly segment
refused to participate in the exit poll.
Mrs. Sule is doing better among female voters compared to her MVA
counterparts in other Lok Sabha constituencies where we polled.

EXIT POLL OBSERVATIONS

Sympathy for Mr. Sharad Pawar post
the split in his party.
Positive approval for Mrs. Sule's work
as MP.
Non-familiarity outside of Baramati
with Mrs. Sunetra Pawar.
EXIT POLL #2

BEED
Sample size - 400

EXIT POLL TREND

Significant headwinds for Ms. Pankaja
Munde (BJP); Polarisation along caste
lines

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Trends differ from village to village

depending on the caste composition.
There is significant polarisation along
caste lines, with Maratha community
pre-dominantly voting for Mr. Bajrang
Sonawane (NCP-SP) and OBC
Key Factor :
Crossover Maratha community vote for Ms.
Munde vs Muslim consolidation for
Sonawane. One of these will
tilt the scales ...

community voting for Ms. Pankaja

Munde (BJP).
We asked a question to respondents in the survey - Do you approve or
disapprove of Mr. Manoj Jarange Patil's agitation for Maratha
reservation? The answer to this question is the key to unlocking the Beed
puzzle. Of those who disapprove, over 95% are voting for Pankaja
Munde. But of those who approve of the Manoj Jarange agitation, 80%
are voting for Mr. Sonawane while 20% are voting for Ms. Munde.... this
20% are the voters who approve both of the Manoj Jarange agitation &
Modi govt. performance. If Ms. Munde wins, this 20% vote could be a
pivotal factor.
Over 90% Muslims as per the exit poll data are voting for Mr. Bajranj
Sonawane. If Mr. Sonawane wins, this could be one big reason
considering the 12% minority votes in Beed LS.
Vanchit Bahujan Agadi candidate Ashok Patil is polling 10-12% votes.

Assembly constituencies within Beed surveyed - Ashti, Beed, Georai

EXIT POLL #3

SANGLI
Sample size - 450

EXIT POLL TREND

Mr. Vishal Patil (Independent) headed
for a big win

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Vishal Patil is leading by huge margin
Key Factor :
in the exit poll sample.
Significant anti-incumbency against Outpouring of support for Vishal
Patil (who was denied Cong ticket as
BJP MP Sanjay Kaka Patil. A majority
seat was allotted to Sena UBT) and
of respondents disapprove of his
the high anti-incumbency against
performance or consider his BJP MP. Look out for Vishal's victory
performance as MP, as average. margin.
Negative swing against BJP vs 2019
elections, is in high double digits.

Chandrahar Patil (Sena UBT) is polling 10-15% votes.

While Sanjay Patil is trailing almost everywhere, he is also trailing in
Tasgaon assembly segment which is a bit unexpected.

SAMPLE DEFICIENCY
Heavily male voters sample. But the lead in exit poll is so big that even sampling
errors are unlikely to change the outcome.

Assembly constituencies within Sangli surveyed - Tasgaon, Khanapur,

Kadegaon.
EXIT POLL #4

KOLHAPUR
Sample size - 480

EXIT POLL TREND

Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj (Congress)
is leading over Mr. Mandlik (Shiv Sena)

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj is
leading in Radhanagari, Karvir &
assembly segments in Kolhapur city.
Key Factor :
The leads in these assembly
segments look to be sufficient to Goodwill for Chhatrapati Shahu
Maharaj...
cover the possible deficits in Kagal &
Chandgad segments (smaller
samples here but Congress appears
to be trailing).

Exit poll data indicates a win for Chhatrapati Shahu Maharaj but it
doesn't appear a landslide win, as many thought.

SAMPLE DEFICIENCY
Under sampling of Muslim & SC community voters.
EXIT POLL #5

AHMEDNAGAR
Sample size - 266

EXIT POLL TREND

Mr. Sujay Vikhe Patil (BJP), Mr. Nilesh
Lanke (NCP-SP) locked in a close
contest

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Sujay Vikhe Patil (BJP) is polling
better among female & younger Key Factor :
voters.
Female & Young voters support for
Nilesh Lanke (NCP-SP) is doing better
Sujay Vikhe Patil vs Seniors for
among senior voters. Lanke.. whose support base has
Definite negative swing against BJP shown up more?
but is it enough to swing a seat Sujay
Vikhe Patil won by 23% points last
time? Data is inconclusive...

Raw data itself shows an extremely close fight... but given the small
sample size, we could be wrong.

Assembly segments within Ahmednagar surveyed - Parner, Rahuri, Shrigonda

EXIT POLL #6

SOLAPUR
Sample size - 300

EXIT POLL TREND

Ms. Praniti Shinde (Congress) leads in
rural areas, key demographics

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Ms Praniti Shinde is significantly

cutting Cong deficit in urban
assembly segments of the
Key Factor :
constituency - Solapur North, South
& Central. Withdrawal of Vanchit Bahujan
Though a smaller sample, Dalits & Agadi candidate... Mr. Prakash
Ambedkar polled close to 2 lakh
Muslims seem to have consolidated
votes in 2019.
behind Praniti Shinde.
Large leads likely in Mohol & Solapur
Central assembly segments for Ms.
Shinde. She is also ahead in
Pandharpur though sample set is
smaller.
Ram Satpute (BJP ) will need big leads in Solapur North & Akkalkot to
cover up the deficits in other segments... in 2019, BJP lead in these 2
segments combined was 1.11 lakh votes. If the negative swings against
BJP in Mohol & Pandharpur carry over to BJP strongholds, Mr. Praniti
Shinde is then favoured.

SAMPLE DEFICIENCY
Undersampling of female & SC community voters.

Assembly constituencies within Solapur covered - Solapur City segments,

Mohol, Pandharpur
EXIT POLL #7

MUMBAI SOUTH
Sample size - 400

EXIT POLL TREND

Mr. Arvind Sawant (Sena UBT) looks set
for a hat-trick of wins

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Arvind Sawant (Sena UBT ) is leading

by big margins in the Marathi voters
dominated segments of Shivadi &
Key Factor :
Worli. Working class Marathi voters
appear to have voted for Sena UBT in Marathi & Muslim voters strongly
these 2 segments by large margins, in backing Sena UBT combined with Mr.
Sawant's high personal ratings for
the Sena vs Sena contest.
work as MP is likely to result in a win
Mr. Sawant is polling over 70% of for him.
Muslim voters in Mumbadevi & Byculla
constituencies in our sample
(substantial minority voters in both
assembly segments).

Mrs. Yamini Jadhav ( Shiv Sena ) 's leads in Malabar Hill & Colaba are
unlikely to make up the large deficits in Shivadi, Worli, Byculla & Mumbadevi
segments.

Assembly segments within Mumbai South

covered : Shivadi, Worli, Mumbadevi &
Byculla
EXIT POLL #8

MUMBAI SOUTH CENTRAL Key Factor :

Sample size - 500
Can Mr. Rahul Shewale pull in substantial leads
from Wadala & Sion to offset deficits in
EXIT POLL TREND Dharavi, Dadar, Chembur & Anushakti Nagar? It
will take an inside straight for that to happen...
Dharavi to determine outcome of Sena
unlikely, though not impossible... If Dharavi lead
vs Sena contest for Desai crosses 40,000, he will almost
certainly be home... Sena UBT has an edge in
this prestige battle for the seat that houses
Dadar & Sena Bhavan.

ANALYSIS FROM EXIT POLL DATA

Mr. Anil Desai (Sena UBT ) is routing Mr. Shewale (Shiv Sena ) in Dharavi
assembly segment as per our sample... a 35-40,000 vote lead for Desai
here is not out of the realms of possibility where 1.21 lakh voters have
voted. Mr. Shewale is faring so badly in this assembly segment among
every conceivable demographic that we did a second round of sampling
here just to reconfirm the trend...
Dadar (Mumbai & Marathi voter heartland) is where the trend is
changing... Shewale is doing much better among Marathi voters than what
conventional wisdom would suggest... indicating that the large MNS vote
in this segment has been smoothly transferred to NDA. Even then, Desai is
ahead among Marathi voters and with a 16% minority vote in this segment,
he should be ahead by 15-18,000 in Dadar-Mahim.
Chembur is another assembly segment where Mr. Shewale is
underperforming. He is struggling in several pockets of Chembur with a
large Dalit vote.
Mr. Desai is polling 80-85% of the Muslim vote, which is between 15-30% in
all the 6 assembly segments of this constituency.
Vanchit Bahujan Agadi is doing well among the Dalit voters and could poll
7-10% overall. They are doing well in Chembur.
Mr. Shewale has good pockets of support in Sion, Dadar & Anushakti
Nagar but the demographic composition of the constituency and
significant underperformance in Dharavi could do him in.

Assembly segments within Mumbai South Central covered - Mahim-Dadar,

Dharavi, Chembur, Wadala, Sion, Anushakti Nagar