Washington Post-ABC News Poll (washingtonpost.

com)

Page 1 of 4

washingtonpost.com > Politics > Polls

Washington Post-ABC News Poll

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by conventional and cellular telephone, November 30 to December 4, 2011, among a random sample of 858 potential Iowa Republican caucus-goers. The results have a four-point error margin for all potential voters, and six points for the sample of 356 likely voters. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, NY. *= less than 0.5 percent PV=potential voters LV=likely voters 1. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered to vote in Iowa at your present address, or not? 2. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) Are you registered as a (Democrat), (Republican), (Independent), or what? 3. (FOR SCREENING PURPOSES) I'd like you to rate the chances that you will attend the Iowa Republican presidential caucus that will be held in your precinct in January. Are you absolutely certain you will attend, will you probably attend, are the chances 50-50, or less than that? 4. How closely are you following the 2012 presidential campaign: very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not closely at all? ---- Closely ----NET Very Smwt. 12/4/11 PV 83 37 46 12/4/11 LV 94 54 40 12/17/07 LV 95 51 44 11/18/07 LV 93 48 44 7/31/07 LV 88 35 53 *2011 2012. 2007 2008. ---- Not closely ----NET Not too At all 16 11 5 5 4 1 5 4 1 7 6 1 12 10 2 No opinion * 1 0 0 0

5. Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination for president - are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? ----- Satisfied ----NET Very Somewhat 63 15 48 76 24 52 --- Dissatisfied ---NET Somewhat Very 34 21 13 22 16 7 No opinion 3 1

12/4/11 PV 12/4/11 LV

6. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were: (Michele Bachmann), (Herman Cain*), (Newt Gingrich), (Jon Huntsman), (Ron Paul), (Rick Perry), (Mitt Romney), (Rick Santorum), who would you support? Which candidate are you leaning toward? 12/4/11 - NET LEANED PREFERENCE Potential caucus-goers 28 18 16 12 10 4 2 1 4 * 4 Likely caucus-goers 33 18 18 11 8 7 2 * 1 0 3

Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Other None of these Would not vote No opinion

*Cain supporters were reallocated based on their second choice. 7. Will you definitely support (NAMED CANDIATE) as your first choice, or is there a chance you could change your mind and support someone else as your first choice? IF CHANCE CHANGE MIND: (would you say theres a good chance) you'll change your mind, or (is it pretty unlikely)? Definitely support 12/4/11 PV 35 12/4/11 LV 45 -Chance change mind NET Unlikely Good 61 26 35 52 26 27 No opinion 4 3

Among potential Republican caucus-goers who support

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_120411.html

12/8/2011

Washington Post-ABC News Poll (washingtonpost.com)

Page 2 of 4

Gingrich Romney Paul

Definitely support 37 28 50

-Chance change mind NET Unlikely Good 59 26 34 70 31 39 48 17 30

No opinion 4 2 2

8. How enthusiastic are you about supporting (NAMED CANDIDATE) - very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all? --- Enthusiastic -NET Very Fairly 78 24 54 92 36 56 94 45 49 91 34 57 ---- Not enthusiastic ---NET Not too Not at all 21 17 5 8 7 1 5 4 1 8 8 1 No opinion 1 * 1 1

12/4/11 PV 12/4/11 LV 12/17/07 LV 11/18/07 LV

Among potential Republican caucus-goers who support --- Enthusiastic -NET Very Fairly 81 27 54 73 15 58 81 30 51 ---- Not enthusiastic ---NET Not too Not at all 18 16 2 27 23 4 19 11 8 No opinion 1 0 0

Gingrich Romney Paul

9. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (MULTIPLE RESPONSES ACCEPTED.) 12/4/11 Potential Likely caucus-goers caucus-goers 24 23 22 18 15 18 10 12 12 16 12 15 8 11 6 8 31 26 4 4

Michele Bachmann Herman Cain Mitt Romney Newt Gingrich Ron Paul Rick Perry Jon Huntsman Rick Santorum None of these No opinion

10. Which of the following is the single most important issue in your choice for the Republican candidate for president? Is it (the economy and jobs), (the federal budget deficit), (immigration), (taxes), (social issues like abortion and gay marriage), (the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan), or something else? 12/4/11 Potential Likely caucus-goers caucus-goers 44 38 25 28 11 15 6 4 3 3 2 2 1 * 5 7 2 1 1 1

Economy and jobs Federal budget deficit Social issues like abortion and gay marriage Taxes Immigration Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Social Security/Medicare/elderly care Something else (SPECIFY) All of them No opinion

11. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you think (ITEM)? Full item wording: a. best understands the problems of people like you b. is the most honest and trustworthy c. has the best experience to be president d. has the best chance to defeat Barack Obama in the general election e. best reflects the core values of the Republican Party f. is most likely to stand up for what he or she believes in 12/4/11 Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers* 12/4/11 Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers* Understands Newt Gingrich 17 Mitt Romney 10 Ron Paul 17 Rick Perry 10 Michele Bachmann 16 Rick Santorum 3 Jon Huntsman 1 Other * All of them 2 Any 2 or more equally 2 None of them 11 No opinion 10 Honest 11 14 19 9 16 5 2 0 2 2 9 10 Experience 42 18 10 8 3 1 1 * 1 3 4 9 Defeat 27 24 6 7 3 1 * * 8 4 7 12 Values 23 15 12 8 13 5 1 * 2 2 4 15 Stand up 21 11 19 11 16 4 1 * 5 2 3 7

12/4/11 Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers* Understands 22 12 19 8 15 Honest 13 12 23 8 17 Experience 43 16 13 9 2 Defeat 29 24 8 6 2 Values 25 12 14 9 13 Stand up 24 10 22 9 13

Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry Michele Bachmann

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_120411.html

12/8/2011

Washington Post-ABC News Poll (washingtonpost.com)

Page 3 of 4

Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Other All of them Any 2 or more equally None of them No opinion

5 1 * 3 2 7 7

9 2 0 3 3 4 6

2 1 1 1 3 2 6

1 1 0 9 4 6 11

9 2 0 2 2 2 12

6 1 0 6 3 1 5

*Those picking Cain were reallocated based on their second choice on each attribute. 12. Regardless of who you may support, which of the Republican candidates do you trust most to handle (ITEM)? Full item wording: a. The economy b. Immigration issues c. Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage 12/4/11 Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers* Economy 27 20 16 9 8 1 1 0 * 3 6 8 Immigration 20 9 11 21 8 3 1 0 * 2 6 18 Social issues 13 14 11 9 22 7 2 * * 1 6 15

Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Other All of them Any 2 or more equally None of them No opinion

12/4/11 Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers* Economy 31 20 21 8 6 2 1 0 0 4 3 5 Immigration 27 8 13 18 7 4 1 0 * 3 3 15 Social issues 14 12 13 9 23 12 2 0 1 2 2 10

Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney Ron Paul Rick Perry Michele Bachmann Rick Santorum Jon Huntsman Other All of them Any 2 or more equally None of them No opinion

*Those picking Cain were reallocated based on their second choice on each issue. 13. For each item I name, please tell me if it is a major reason to (support) that candidate, a major reason to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor? 12/4/11 Summary table, potential Republican caucus-goers Major reason to support a. Mitt Romneys policies on health care when he was governor of Massachusetts 18 b. Mitt Romneys religious beliefs 8 c. Mitt Romneys business experience 57 d. Newt Gingrichs political experience 61 e. Newt Gingrichs marital history 3 f. Newt Gingrichs position on illegal immigration 34 g. Ron Pauls views on limited government 55 h. Ron Pauls opposition to U.S. military interventions overseas 27 12/4/11 Summary table, likely Republican caucus-goers Major reason to support a. Mitt Romneys policies on health care when he was governor of Massachusetts 14 b. Mitt Romneys religious beliefs 4 c. Mitt Romneys business experience 61 d. Newt Gingrichs political experience 70 e. Newt Gingrichs marital history 1 f. Newt Gingrichs position on illegal immigration 38 g. Ron Pauls views on limited government 66 h. Ron Pauls opposition to U.S. military interventions overseas 22 Major reason to oppose 33 13 7 13 16 16 14 36 Not a major factor 36 74 30 22 76 35 24 30

No op. 13 5 6 4 5 15 7 6

Major reason to oppose 45 15 7 11 16 15 14 46

Not a major factor 34 78 27 15 79 36 17 28

No op. 7 2 5 4 3 10 3 4

14. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of any of the campaigns, either by phone or inperson, asking you for your support, or not? IF YES: Which ones? (ACCEPT MULTIPLE ANSWERS) 12/4/11 Potential Likely caucus-goers caucus-goers 45 58 26 32 21 31

Yes, total Yes, Michele Bachmann Yes, Mitt Romney

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_120411.html

12/8/2011

Washington Post-ABC News Poll (washingtonpost.com)

Page 4 of 4

Yes, Ron Paul Yes, Rick Perry Yes, Herman Cain Yes, Newt Gingrich Yes, Rick Santorum Yes, Jon Huntsman Yes, Other (SPECIFY) No, None of them No opinion

21 20 17 13 10 5 3 51 4

29 30 23 19 15 7 3 40 2

15. Have you watched any of the debates among the Republican candidates for president that have been held recently, or not? 12/4/11 PV 12/4/11 LV Yes, have watched 53 68 No, have not watched 47 32 No opinion * 0

16. On another subject, what is your view of the Tea Party political movement - would you say you support it strongly, support it somewhat, oppose it somewhat or oppose it strongly? -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 69 26 43 77 35 42 --------- Oppose -------NET Somewhat Strongly 23 14 9 17 11 7 No opinion 8 6

12/4/11 PV 12/4/11 LV ***END***

E-Mail This Graphic

2011 The Washington Post Company Ways you can get us Mobile Newsletter & alerts Post Store Photo Store Washington Post Live Apps RSS Facebook Twitter The Washington Post Work for us Community Relations PostPoints Corrections/Suggestions Archive Contact the Ombudsman Report a problem Newspaper Subscribe Home delivery service e-Replica Advertise In the newspaper On the web site Mobile Events The Washington Post Company Post Company web sites Web site Make us your homepage Digital Guidelines Ask The Post

Partners

1996-2011 The Washington Post Terms of Service Privacy Policy Reprints and Permissions

Help Contact Us Ad Choices

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_120411.html

12/8/2011