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Chairmans Presentation DSPML Feb2006
Chairmans Presentation DSPML Feb2006
February 2006
- Cement & Viscose Staple Fibre - Metals - Apparels, Insurance, IT / ITeS, Carbon Black, Fertilisers & VFY - Cement - Telecom - Mining & Power
2
Internationa International l Operation Operationss M.Cap: US$3.0bn M.Cap: US$4.3bn M.Cap: US$1.3bn
Aluminium Copper VFY Carbon Black Textiles Garments IT/ ITeS Insurance Financial services Fertilisers Telecom Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Egypt Canada Australia China
M.Cap: US$1.5bn
Cement VSF
CAGR 30%
5
Group M Cap (as on Jan 1999) ($ 1.5 bn) CAGR 18% Sensex (as on Jan 2006) 9920
3
Sensex (as on Jan 1999) 3060
Inherent Strengths
Market Opportunities
G r o wt h
Core strengths
In d i a P o te n ti a l
Strong balance sheet and Cash flows Cost Leadership and Efficiencies World- Class Quality Streamlined Systems & Processes Corporate Governance Principle of Trusteeship
Consumption led growth Increasing urbanization Manufacturing cost advantage Resource base
+ Regional
market opportunities
$7.9bn
International
$3.1bn
Domestic Others Aditya Birla Nuvo Hindalco Grasim
FY99
EBITDA - $522mn Gearing 37%
FY06e
EBITDA - $1,540mn Gearing 36%
FY10e
EBITDA - $3,400mn Target Gearing 40%
Based on Fortune 500 study in 2004 Threshold Sales - $12.4bn Median Sales - $22.5bn
Growth Phase
Shifting gears
8
Egypt
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Indonesia
Australia
10
50
= $ 761 mn = $ 230 mn
VSF Plants
12
(TPA)
Columbian Chemicals
CAGR = 8%
355,000
Cabot 22.2%
14.5%
Others 28.1%
FY99
FY06e
= $ 306 mn = $ 76 mn
India
Thailand
Egypt
China
4th largest and amongst the fastest growing Carbon Black operations
13
2.4%
8.4%
7.5%
2003-08 2008-13 W Europe 2003-08 2008-13 N. America 2003-08 4.3% 4.1% 2003-08 2008-13 Africa / M. East 4.1% 6.6% 2008-13 China 5.2% 4.9%
3.9%
6.2%
14
15
Results encouraging across the Group Amongst Top-15% low cost producers in alumina and aluminium Cost leadership position in VSF Moving towards Top-25% amongst custom copper smelting costs One of the most energy efficient urea plants in the world Cost competitive in Carbon Black
16
17
18
19
20
73
Overall Satisfaction
72
69 68
Metals
Fibres/Textiles
21
(Contd..)
Financial Services
Telecom
Fertilisers
UREA
DAP
22
Aditya Birla Nuvo Formed through merger of IRIL with Birla Global and Indo Gulf
$225mn
$22mn
$1.5bn
$1.0bn
$150mn
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
$65mn
$95mn
$15mn
$500mn
$12mn
23
Hindalco
Aluminium
Upstream Metal Downstream
Rolled Products 170 ktpa Alumina 1160 ktpa Aluminium 425 ktpa Copper mines Reserves 2,458 kt Cathodes 500 ktpa Gold 20 tpa
Copper
Upstream Metal By-products
Silver 75 tpa
2100
2,780
1800
1,832
1500
1200
768 752 735 425
900
BHP Billiton
Rio Tinto
RusAl
Hindalco
Hydro
Chalco
Alcoa
Alcan
Alba
Dubal
600 0 25 50
(% of Production)
Source: CRU Aluminium Production Costs 2004
75
100
90%
(KTPA)
1000
CAGR=9 % (2001-05e)
63%
800
46% 33%
600
CAGR=3.6 % (1991-2000)
400
21%
200
Spl. Alumina
Metal
Rolled Products
Foils
Extrusion
Domestic demand has surged in recent times with nearly 22% of current market size being created in last 2 years
27
(000 TPA)
Rest of World Asia
(000 TPA)
Rest of World Asia
80,000 35,000 70,000 30,000 60,000 25,000 50,000 20,000 40,000 15,000 30,000 10,000
20,000
10,000
5,000
12.8% 2.8%
9.2% 3.7%
28
325
1,186
796 260 81 65
640
1,000 500 0
685
Renukoot Current
Utkal 55%
Aditya
Total
Hirakud Expn
Aditya
Rajbar
Total
30
937
25
870 870
645
20
Dahej At 500 KT
Dahej At 250 KT
15
10
Gmexico
AngloAmerican
Mitsubishi
Hindalco
Xstrata
BHP
Codelco
PhelpsDodge
Rio
5 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Cum ulative Production ('000M T)
Source: CRU Copper Smelting Costs 2003, Company Data
Source: CRU
30
(kt)
12,000
0 -726 -922
-1,217
-1,303
-1,387
-1,294
4,751
8,000
4,883
(2001-05)
4,673
4,176
4,074
-1,225
3,775
-796
-779
-1,500
-1,236
6,000
4,422
4,405
4,529
-910
-1,000
4,000
2,256
2,557
3,040
2,000
3,468
3,763
4,128
4,449
4,827
5,238
-2,500
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e China Rest of Asia -3,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e China Source : CRU Quarterly October 2005 Rest of Asia
-850
-2,000
-1,444
-985
-752
-1,679
CAGR 7.9%
-1,411
-500
-1,223
10,000
31
Captive port provides further advantages Strong prevailing TcRc margins to aid profitability Significant locational advantages Moving up the value chain through mines
Mt Gordon output remains firm Shipments from Nifty to begin by end FY06
32
1 in 7 states with 24% of demand 2 in 6 states with 32% of demand 3 in 4 states with 20% of demand
Zone Zonal Distribution Industry Grasim Combine 33 16 27 18 6 100 24 16 23 28 9 100
CAGR FY91 to FY05 Industry Grasim Consolidated Grasim (standalone) 7% 23% 18%
35 30 25 20 15 10 5
hNo
Grasim Combine Mkt. Rank Share % 15 20 17 33 2nd 2nd 2nd 1st 1st 2nd
UltraTech
30 20
34
(Kgs) 120
120
S. Korea
1000
100
Spain Ireland
800
100 80 80 60 60 40 40 20
Taiwan
600
20
India
0
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Source: CMA
35
250
200 14.6
400 300 200
150
13.5
100
50
100
0 1961
Source : NBO
1971
1981
1991
2001
2005
FY00
FY02
FY04
FY06e
89
89
91 71
Value Businesses
VFY
Carbon Black
Textiles
Fertilisers Insulators
Garments
Financial Services JV
Subsidiaries
ITeS (100%)
39
Tex tiles
Textiles Others Insulators Carbon Black Garm ents VFY
Tex tiles
Life Insurance
Insulators VFY Fertilisers C arbon Black Garments Softw are Telecom BPO
Value businesses
CAGR 45%
52.2
0.9
41
Revenue
(US$ Mn)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margins
42
High potential, given low penetration 40 Demographic profile and economic 30 outlook predict rapid growth 20 Private sector entry spurs product and market development Birla SunLife, a strong player Amongst leading private life insurers Strong, expanding distribution network Several first mover advantages
250 200 150 100 50 0
Source: Company Data ; Swiss Re, Kotak Research
FY02
FY03
FY04
FY05
43
Gross revenues
160 US$ mn
140
CAGR 16%
120
100
80
60
Current valuations
Revenues
EBIDTA
Net Profit
PER
EV/ EBITDA
Hindalco
(Rs.165)
2,294
547
267
4,332
11.4
7.6
Grasim
(Rs.1,452)
1,434
334
178
3,017
14.1
10.3
UltraTech
(Rs.519)
653
104
25
1,462
36.8
11.6
489
71
28
1,314
27.0
11.3
( month FY06 annualized data Stock price, market cap and as on 31st Jan 2006 Valuations based on FY06 Bloomberg consensus estimates
45
Over 2 million beneficiaries, across several states in India Aditya Birla Group of Schools The third largest chain of schools in India
Presence in 12 states with over 40,000 students
Social Vision: To actively contribute to the social and economic development of the communities in which we operate and beyond. In so doing, build a better, sustainable way of life for the weaker sections of the society and raise the countrys HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX 46
Thank You