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Pexton 'Mysterious Tunnels' (2011.12.18)
Pexton 'Mysterious Tunnels' (2011.12.18)
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have enough missiles surviving to launch a counter-attack sufficiently damaging to deter the first attack. Thats basic nuclear deterrence. A 2008 earthquake revealed some of the strategic tunnels. Intrigued by the exposures, a Georgetown professor and Pentagon consultant, Phillip A. Karber, decided to launch a research project with his students. They would use the Internet, Google, Chinese blogs and any other kind of non-classified, open-source intelligence they could find to discover as much as they could about the tunnel system. It was much like a data-mining project that the CIA or National Security Agency might do, except it was done with less powerful computers and cheaper student labor. Their three-year study concluded that the 3,000-mile Chinese tunnel system is so vast it could hold perhaps 3,000 nuclear warheads, rather than the 200 to 400 that most experts think China probably has. That sent those who study arms control, well, skyrocketing. In online posts and in letters to me, they blasted Karber, Wan and The Post for having the temerity to suggest that China might have more nuclear warheads than most experts believe. You can read their criticisms on the Federation of American Scientists strategic security blog, ArmsControlWonk and All Things Nuclear. I think the critics are off the mark. The Post story didnt feature the speculative 3,000-warhead figure in the headline, nor in an accompanying graphic; indeed, it didnt mention the figure until the last section of the story. Moreover, the eighth and ninth paragraphs of the story quote the skepticism with which nuclear experts greeted the study. The story even quoted Karber acknowledging, I dont have the slightest idea how many nuclear weapons China really has. This wasnt a story so much on Chinas nuclear weapons as it was a story about the amateur sleuthing of two dozen Georgetown students who dedicated their spare time to doing an open-source intelligence study that turned up all sorts of new information on the Chinese tunnel system. The story was more about the students and their team effort than the studys conclusion. And thats why it made for such a good read:It put a human face on an arcane field, and it showed something interesting going on behind the scenes at one of the citys major universities. The arms controllers are right that journalists shouldnt exaggerate the capabilities of Americas enemies. I wrote as much in my column last Sunday on Irans nuclear ambitions. But neither should journalists shy away from a fascinating story that looks at something outside the conventional wisdom. Thats one of our jobs.