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Impact of Variable Generation Philip M Gonski
Impact of Variable Generation Philip M Gonski
Philip M. Gonski
Abstract
Wind power and renewables have been growing at a tremendous rate in the United States, as well as the rest of the world. With this growth, concerns mount in regards to the potential grid security and grid stability of variable generation. These concerns have recently been brought to the forefront in the United States Department of Energy recent report studying the effects of 20% renewable energy by 2030, as well as the recent NERC Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation. Efforts will be undertaken in this paper to address several critical issues variable generation poses for grid stability concerns, including such issues as plant modeling, interconnection requirements, voltage concerns, output forecasting tools, impacts of aggregation of sources & weather stations, as well as the impact of variable generation on overall operation. Historical variable generation events will be discussed in their context, the lessons learned, as well as the impact on future generation. Examples will also be cited of how Hawaii and Spain have dealt with large percentages of variable generation in their generation portfolio. Although there are several sources different types of variable generation (ex. Wind, solar, hydrokinetic, wave power, etc), the focus will solely be centered upon wind generation.
Introduction
Global Warming has been a major concern in the two most recent United States Presidential Elections. At the current predicted rate of temperature increase, catastrophic impacts on our environment will occur if we do not lessen our reliance on fossil fuels. In the wake of these concerns, many countries, including the United States, have taken steps towards dramatically increasing research on renewable generation, especially in the field of wind generation. Wind energy does not produce a direct waste by-product; however, they vary greatly in the output and reliability of the overall power grid. As the United States demand for power grows with the decline of the recession, the affect of variable generations on stability and demand is critical.
The current power system in the United States consists of meeting customer demand in real-time and balancing supply and demand. With the proposed building of 145 GW1 of installed variable generation capacity in the United States, the existing grid will need to be examined for the long terms effects and limitations that this might place upon our system. Interconnection requirements and standards must also be updated to reflect the addition of a new source of power generation. With the establishment of IEEE subcommittees as well as the IEEE 1547 standard, it appears that this topic is deservedly receiving much debate and research. As several countries already undertaken vast research and experience on this topic, the Untied States will have a large amount of information and data available to aide in the adapting of the grid to the upcoming demand for more renewable generation.
http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf
been developed which are both difficult to maintain as well as use. Thus, one of the critical steps towards developing a renewable portfolio is the adaptation of a wellrecognized, industry-standard model, as is the case for traditional generation. One of the hindrances facing such a practice is the current use of four different turbine generator types with different characteristics. The four turbines models currently in use today are classified into four types: squirrel cage induction generators (type 1), wound-rotor induction generations with variable rotor resistance (type 2), and double-fed induction generators (type 3), and asynchronous generators with power converters (type 4). All of these generators, especially types 3 & 4 have dramatically different short circuit characteristics than synchronous generators as can be seen in the figure 1 below. In this graph, the top waveform represents a wind plant fault contribution, while the bottom represents a conventional synchronous generator of a similar size. Such a graph clearly displays the errors that might arise in using conventional generators to model the slightly more complicated wind generators. Figure 1 Short Circuit Contributions of Double-Fed Induction vs Synchronous Generator3
Induction generators of types 1 and type 2 provide initial fault conditions similar to that of a synchronous generator; however the current rapidly decays as flux collapses. Types 3 & 4 posses a high degree of controllability of both frequency and power output. Type 3 generators are especially difficult to model as the characteristics can be drastically
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changed by closing a switch to purposely short the rotor during a fault for protection. To further compound such issues, these types of generators are not well-represented in the industry and are often little understood by the utility engineers who are involved in performing grid reliability testing. Currently, to resolve these complex issues, the IEEE has established a working committee tasked with fostering cooperation between turbine generator manufacturers and vendors of short-circuit modeling software to ensure that renewable generation is accurately modeled and analyzed. As discussed previously, wind generation is vastly different from the characteristics of conventional synchronous generation. Thus wind interconnections may require the use of more detailed analysis methods. Wind systems often have very weak fault current levels, series compensation, as well as complex protective relaying to accommodate the rapid changes in output that might occur. Wind generators are often located in remote transmission regions and are thus subject to small short circuit toleration, and a very large voltage drop possibility due to the lower voltage that is often used for transmission. Developing models for such transients is required to compare and select generators, ensure compliance with grid regulations, as well as ensure full-voltage control and power quality4 via the usage of shunt capacitors. Figure 2 below displays one example of a complex wind generating system that must be modeled as part of analysis
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41329.pdf http://www.ieso.ca/imoweb/marketdata/windpower_CA-ME.asp
experienced in a short period of time. AGC control will be crucial to the power grid in managing the short-term uncertainty of variable generation, as well as the short-term impacts that may arise from forecasting error. AGC control consists of frequency and algorithms working together is maintain system frequency. The system is often located inside the system control center and monitors any potential imbalances that might arise from generation and demand within a control area. In this manner, the output of generators will be modified whenever a frequency change is required to ensure equilibrium in the system. As variable generation is utilized, AGC controls will need to trigger conventional generators outputs whenever there is any dramatic drop-off of wind generation. Thus, if there is a meterlogical event that requires the termination of wind generation on the grid, the system can react and ensure frequency limits are within boundaries. With the usage of speed governing in modern wind turbines, as well as their instant response to dispatch instructions, it is currently envisaged that wind turbines may be allowed to participate in AGC systems in the near future8. Nonetheless, as wind power penetrations continue to increase, AGC algorithms and parameters will need to be optimized in order to ensure maximum system performance.
http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf http://www.nrel.gov/eis/pdfs/interconnection_standards.pdf
coordinate with breakers at the transmission side to ensure full levels of fault protection. Once a voltage, frequency, of synchronism event occurs in the system, wind farms must be able to fully isolate themselves and then reassure their reconnection to the area grid. Power quality concerns should also are also as plants must maintain a balance of real and reactive power . The following figure 3 below details a typical interface as required by IEEE 1547. Figure 3 Typical IEEE 1547 Interconnection10
As can be viewed in the figure, there must be coordination at all times between the grid area and local protective relaying system. Through such methods as paralleling switchgear, the system should be allowed to synchronize from the grid, as well as open breakers when necessary to ensure islanding during abnormal operation. Coordination is also critical as distributed generation may lead to an increase in the available fault current that can be provided to the system, as well as the breaker closing and fuse closing time. Thus, care should be taken by the utility to ensure that the system has been modified and can handle the new margin that has been added.
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http://www.nrel.gov/eis/pdfs/interconnection_standards.pdf
Voltage Control
Wind Turbines also face the potential issue of voltage drop as a consequence of the variable power output. Modern plants today have developed voltage control and reactive power compensation that is increasingly comparable to conventional thermal plants. Wind plants also may provide dynamic and standard reactive power support as well as voltage control to increase stability. As can be seen in figure 4 below, modern wind plants are able to maintain a somewhat constant voltage level despite power output changes. Such control is done via a voltage regulator system which continuously adjusts the reactive power output to maintain constant voltage output. Thus, as far as the immediate power grid is concerned, wind turbine voltage does not have as much as a negative affect as it might be expected if such complicated control methods were designed and in place. In certain locations, this can be accomplished via power electronic transmission technologies such as SVC ( Static Var Compensators) or STATCOMS. In a typical SVC system, inductors and capacitors can be switched on to generate reactive power, or generate negative reactive power. In one example of this system at CalCement bus, without reactive power compensation the voltage variation drops to .905 p.u, while if reactive compensation is added this number climbs to .95 p.u.11 Adding multiple generators to a point of interconnect will also help to reduce voltage. Such a process is called aggregation and will be referred to in greater detail further on. Figure 4 displays an example of the variation reduction when multiple turbine generators are connected. As discussed previously, the main voltage concerns arise due to the remoteness and low voltage in use on available transmission lines rather than the wind generators themselves. Voltage concerns were primarily a concern in the early days of wind turbines when direct fed induction generators were used. However, with the advent of the double-fed induction type these concerns have been greatly diminished as it is often a built-in capability. Figure 4 Voltage Variations as Multiple Generators are Added12
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E. Muljadi and C.P Buttefield. Power Quality Aspects in a Wind Power Plant IEEE Conference
E. Muljadi and C.P Buttefield. Power Quality Aspects in a Wind Power Plant IEEE Conference
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http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf
Rotors for the induction generator are typically wound from two to three times the turns of the stator. As a consequence, the rotor experiences higher voltages than the rest of the system. Any voltage dips in the grid will have a magnified affect on the rotor of the
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http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Report_041609.pdf
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generator. To protect such occurrences, turbines employ a device referred to as a crowbar which is able to short circuit the windings of the rotor if overvoltage or overcurrent is detected on the system. Another benefit of the controllability of the rotor voltages and current enables the induction generator to remain synchronized with the grid even when the wind turbine speed is variable. Double-fed generators power converters can also perform built-in reactive power control in order to regulate voltage and the fastresponse of the converters enables improved voltage recovery and ride-through characteristics. As one can easily see, before the development of such technology, regular induction generators were seen to be very complicated to integrate into the existing system as they did not provide regulated output characteristics. With the advent of this new technology, moderate variability of wind power will have minimal impacts upon the system.
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W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.
Finley. Change in the Air. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.
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Based upon the day to day forecasts placed upon wind turbines, system operators need to organize sufficient spinning reserves to that any adverse affects on system balance will be avoided. Net loads of wind turbines must be served after accounting for the fact that wind has more variability than the load itself. Often, it is not seen as economical for operators to counterbalance every wind variation with a load change in the system. Perhaps the most drastic wind variation affect is ramping, a situation where there is a drastic upturn or downturn of wind generation. A recent study performed by Xcel Energy has shown that there are more high-ramp requirements with wind that without wind. This implicates that higher penetrations of wind will likely increase the ramp requirements for many hours of the year. Figure 7 Ramping and Timing Challenges16
As a direct result of producing steeper ramping rates, generators may often be required to operate at reduced output. The recent Western Wind and Solar Integration (WWSIS) study has recently been completed on this topic and considers the overall operational impact of higher penetrations of renewable resources. Results of this study can be seen in Figure 8 below. In this study, 35% energy by renewables in the balancing area and 23% renewablese in the rest of the WECC were modeled for the year 2017 using historical weather data. Figure 8A highlights the base case when no new wind or solar power is available. Nuclear and coal remain to base loaded to meet demand, while gas turbines
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W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.
Finley. Change in the Air. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.
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and hydropower remain for additional peaking abilities. Figure 8B highlights the situation in an April month with 35% renewable. In this result, coal plants and nuclear plants are required to be scaled down and cycle somewhat in order to balance available power on the system with demand. At such a high level of penetration where wind power is plentiful, forecasting accuracy is critical to meet this variability. During such times, wind power output must be curtailed as there is more power output than current demand. Figure 8C displays a 35% penetration level in July where the wind is relatively constant. In this situation, coal and nuclear are base loaded, while any of the variations are done with wind and available peaking units. Such behavior has a very minimal impact on operations in the system. Figure 8 Affect of Wind on Existing Generation17
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D. Corbus, D. Lew, G. Jordan, W. Winters, F. Van Hull, J. Monobianco, and B. Zavadil. Up with
Wind. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 36-48. Nov/Dec 2009.
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At even higher rates of penetration as discussed in Figure 8B, existing units variability is difficult to manage without the required ramping capabilities. On a real-time basis, operators must be able to economically dispatch available power to match load. As a result, accurate predictions of wind power will greatly aide operators to discern whether or not spinning load is achieved. The uncertainty that wind power introduces into the day-ahead forecasting system have been shown to increase system operating costs by up to $5.00/MWh18 at wind penetrations of 20% or 30%. These numbers, however, are strictly dependant on the nature of the associated dispatchable generation and its cost. . . Recent history events have also dictated the importance of accurate forecasting, as well as providing lessons upon some of the struggles that the Unit States has overcome to incorporate variable generation.
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41329.pdf These tests are based off a normal distribution curve and displays the likelihood of a event occuring
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hours, while the commercial forecast had indicated a 200-500 MW rapid decrease from 5-7pm. Actual production, as can be seen in Figure 9, closely matched the commercial forecast that was performed. As a result of this dramatic drop off in load, the grid did not have available resources to match the drop-off in load. Although such an even did not have a dramatic meteorological even associated with it, there was an atmospheric decrease in wind speed due to a weakening atmospheric gradient. This even was predicted in the commercial forecasting software which was not available to the system operators at the time of the incident. Such an event highlights the importance of how moderate ramps can cause large grid management issues, as well as underscoring how even fairly common weather events can have a significant grid impact. Figure 9 Wind Output Forecasts20.
Another significant wind event occurred on April 4, 2009. In this event, there was a high wind cutout which leads wind output to drop from 650 to 450 MW within an hour time span. Wind output continued to decline until it reached around 310 MW. In total, the wind reductions lead to a 10% decline in overall grid power availability. However, unlike the ERCOT event, the commercial forecasting tools were in use and predicted
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W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.
Finley. Change in the Air. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.
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such an event. As a consequence, grid operators were able to schedule other spinning reserves during this time period to ensure enough power was available to match the roughly 3000 MW of power that was required. Clearly, with the growth of forecasting tools now available, operators are now in a better position to predict weather patterns and minimize operational impacts on the system.
Forecasting
Clearly, the largest impact on the power grid comes from the inherent variability of wind. As can be seen in the previous examples, tools are now available which can minimize the impact of wind by using a variety of commercially-available wind forecasting software. Wind power production forecasts rely mostly on a combination of physics-based and statistical models. Physics based models are referred to as numerical weather prediction models (NWP). Physic based models are highly reliable as they are based upon sets of equations which do not require training samples and are not limited by usage of historical data. In disjointing themselves from historical data, they ensure that the model may be able to predict events which had never occurred in quite the same way. Due to this ability, such prediction tools are very costly and are limited by the incomplete knowledge of the state of the atmosphere as well as the simulation parameters. Statistical models are based upon the relationship between input (predictor) and output (forecaster) variables. Unlike physics-based forecasting, this analysis relies upon large sets of historical data in both input and output. Thus, these models have the benefit of learning from experience and planning based upon what was seen in previous years without reliance upon the underlying physical relationships. Statistic models can be used in a variety of ways to aide in the forecasting process. In man cases, statistical model data is incorporated into NWP models to account for any terrain or native landscape affects that can not be represented in the NWP model by them. As they learn from experience, statistical models tend to predict typical events in any region and thus are not able to prevent rare events which were not part of the historical data. To ensure greatest accuracy, most generators reliable upon a variety of individual forecasts which can help to ease any uncertainty due to faulty input data and any differences in model
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configurations21. For the most part, short-term forecasting relies heavily upon statistical models which can use recent data from nearby locations. Longer forecasts rely upon NWP forecasts incorporated into statistical models. Perhaps the best path used by generators is to use many different providers to generate forecasts. By doing this, they will be able to gauge for themselves which model appears to work the best in the subject area. In several recent studies, commercially available wind-forecasting can be shown to provide 80% of the benefits that would result from perfect forecasting technology. Depending on the mixture of available generation, a GE Energy integration study has reported an approximately $95 million cost savings with more accurate forecasting methods. Figure 10 displays a snapshot of available system demand and wind power in two situations. In the first graph, wind output and available demand matched quite well. As can be seen in the second graph, there is simply a lack of wind power available when demand for power increases. Such patterns can create operational challenges, however, if such events can be predicted, their impact is greatly lessened on the system if there is enough available generation that has been scheduled to meet demand
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W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.
Finley. Change in the Air. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.
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http://www.aeso.ca/downloads/Wind_Integration_Consultation_Oct 19_website_version.ppt
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boundary-layer stabilization at sunset/nightfall23. Down-ramps are much more difficult to predict as they are often not related to any meteorological events, except for the influence of thunderstorms. Current NWP models can sometimes predict rapid changes in wind patterns, however, the inherent variability of ramping events makes it very difficult to accurate obtain the right forecast for every event as the causes are often very complex. Figure 11 Impact of Multiple Weather Stations24
The variability patterns will have a magnified impact on wind generation if turbines are concentrated in the same geographic region. If turbines are all located in neighboring areas, they are all affected by the same weather patterns. In this manner, 100,000 MW of wind output in the same region often acts as a single turbine25. Aggregating wind turbines can turn sudden interruptions in output into a more manageable multihour downward ramp. This can be displayed in Figure 12. Figure 12 Impact of Aggregation in Texas Event26
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W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.
Finley. Change in the Air. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 200
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W. Grant, D. Edelson, J. Dumas, J. Zack, M. Alhstrom, J. Kehler, P. Storck, J. Lerner, K. Parks, and C.
Finley. Change in the Air. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 47-58. Nov/Dec 2009.
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OMalley, M. Scheurger, and L. Soder. Wind Power Myths Debunked. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 89-99. Nov/Dec 2009.
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In this figure, the output of one individual generating station drops rapidly, while the aggregated output of multiple turbines located throughout the state declines more slowly as the weather event passes over the region. Aggregating has also been shown in a recent study to decrease forecasting error by up to 50% if turbines have been located throughout a 750km region27. In the current situation, many turbines are located in remote areas and are serviced by only a few transmission lines. Often, these lines are at a lower voltage which carries more current & has more losses. Due to the great distance involved in distributing weaker voltages, voltage drop due to I^2R losses are critical. Such complexities display that most of the wind turbines impact on the grid has been lessened by technology and statistical analysis. As the United States moves more towards renewable energy, we will need to look to those governments which already have large quantities of wind power in place and learn from their experience.
Hawaiian Experience
The main island of Hawaii possesses one of the largest percentages of wind generation in the world. In fact, upwards of 40% of their power portfolio can come from renewable
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OMalley, M. Scheurger, and L. Soder. Wind Power Myths Debunked. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 89-99. Nov/Dec 2009.
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OMalley, M. Scheurger, and L. Soder. Wind Power Myths Debunked. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 89-99. Nov/Dec 2009.
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generation28. Since there is not many normal spinning sources present on the island, the resources they do have must remain online at all times to provide adequate inertia to preserve grid stability. As a result, as per Figure 13, excess power can often be produced in off-peak hours, requiring that wind generation be curtailed. Wind variability has also had impacts on the system frequency. Without wind, the system frequency deviated +/- . 06 Hz, while on a mildly variable period with wind generation the system frequency can vary +/- .1 Hz 29 Figure 13 Hawaiian Power Distribution30
To minimize system variability, ramp-rate limits of 2 MW per minute have been set for both upward and downward ramps. By controlling its ramp rate in these directions, the turbines are able to keep the power output relatively uniform. Problems were later encountered in the programming of the AGC system. For a while, efforts were made to make the system more responsible to variations in the overall system frequency. However, in affect the variations were made worse as the AGC made efforts to chase every random variation in frequency caused by wind turbines. As a result, generators would increase their output to match the drop-off in wind generation, while in the mean
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M. Matsurra. Island Breezes. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 59. Nov/Dec 2009. M. Matsurra. Island Breezes. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 60. Nov/Dec 2009. M. Matsurra. Island Breezes. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 61. Nov/Dec 2009.
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time wind output picked up once again to its former levels. Such issues were resolved once the AGC system had been detuned to make it less reactive to variable changes in the system. However, with this modification, the overall system frequency can deviate +/- .2 Hz before issuing commands to dispatchable units. Spinning reserves must still be present at all time in the system and are driven at any moment by the wind plant total output. Sustained ramping events and any frequency variations must all be accounted for in the scheduling of both available reserves and quick-starting generation. Figure 14 displays a ramping event experienced upon which diesel generation reserves were brought online to ride through a severe ramping event. As mentioned previously, these ramping down events can be very hard to forecast, thus quick-starting capacity can be crucial in order to preserve system integrity. As is the case with many other countries, the island of Hawaii is learning through experience to provide an example of system success. Figure 14 Hawaiian Wind Ramping Event31
M. Matsurra. Island Breezes. IEEE Power Energy Mag, vol. 6, no. 6, pp 61. Nov/Dec 2009. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41329.pdf
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system which possesses feeble ties to the European system, wind variability and forecasting plays a crucial role. Any imbalances in the system must be less than 1,300 MW for ten minutes to prevent major system failure. Wind power has had the largest affect on the availability of spinning reserves in the system. Once day-ahead forecasting has been scheduled, the available reserve capacity is scheduled which should be available to balance any possible ramping events on the system. If there is a predicted lack of availability of spinning reserves, thermal users can be switched off in order to ensure that there is enough available generation to meet the most users load demands. Although wind has been widely used in Spain, there are still problems that will persist for long periods of time. Unlike the United States, Spain is essentially an island grid with very little interconnections to draw power from outside sources if required. In several situations, they have needed to shed wind load, while in one situation, the difference between real and scheduled wind production was greater than 7000 MW33. To cope with these issues, the Spanish Grid Operator, Red Electrica has established a Control Center for Renewable Energy to supervise and control generators in real time. Hydro-pump storage is also being developed as a method to cope with the overproduction of wind during several hours of the day. Interconnections have also been planned and are being developed to reinforce their ties with other countries as another outsource of excess wind, or to help during periods of low wind outputs. With the feed-in tariffs and other government-run programs, Spain is currently believed to be on track to be more than 40% renewable by 2020.
Conclusion
Despite a few growing pains, wind power in the United States will continue to grow and develop into a more reliable and clean source of power. Although initially facing crucial inherent difficulties such as voltage variation, frequency, and lack of proper forecasting tools, new technology has arisen which alleviates a majority of these concerns. Wind is inherently variable and thus can never be a base-loaded source of power, however, with the highly accurate commercial forecasting software available today, it can definitely help to meet the soon-to-be growing United States power demand. The evidence of the
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http://www.ree.es/ingles/publicaciones/pdf/030409_MIT_WindpowerdevelopmentinSpain.pdf
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growth of recent forecasting tools can clearly be seen in the example of the Texas system emergency in February, as compared to the commercially forecasted April ramping event. Although large variations in wind will continue to have impacts on grid operations, allowing system operators adequate time to schedule available resources will alleviate the major concerns of variability. Luckily for the United States, lessons can be learned from Hawaii and Spain in regards to integration of wind resources into the power grid. Despite all the operational issues which must be resolved, the main issue that will hinder the usage of wind resources is the lack of transmission system capability. As discussed previously, wind turbines are often located in remote areas and thus interconnect at lower voltages and weaker transmission systems. Recent discussions of smart grid improvements may help to account for the variability of wind by fostering more interconnections and distribution of available generation. Perhaps one of the most important modifications that will be made will increase the voltage of the transmission lines entering the wind farm. By increasing the voltage, the voltage drop across the cables will be minimized. It will certainly be a learning experience in the United States as we move towards a less-predictable source of energy; however, with a few modifications, these additions appear quite feasible, especially given the current political climate.
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