:

I / 2011

I / 2011

 2011 . .

. :


1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20036
United States
P +1 202 483 7600 F +1 202 483 1840
CarnegieEndowment.org | info@CarnegieEndowment.org
:

2026 1210

.
961 1 991 291 :
961 1 991 591 :
. 1061 - 11 :
www.carnegie-mec.org
info@Carnegie-mec.org
:
http://www.CarnegieEndowment.org
. :
pubs@CarnegieEndowment.org

...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

.............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

..................................................../////////////////////////////////////.......................

..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................

................................................................................................................................................

................................................................................................................................................................................................................

/ 2011

..............................................................................................

11

......................................................................................

12

...............................................................................................................................................................................................................

14

/ 2011

:
:

................................................................................................................................................................

15

.............................................................................................................................................................

15

....................................................................................................................

17

..........................................................................................................................................

19

........................................................................................................................

20

.................................................................................................................

20

.........................................................................................................

21

...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

22

:
:

......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

25

....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

.....................................................................................................................................................................

26
27



.
.

.
.

.

.

.

.


.

.
.

.



.
.


.
.
2011

.


.


.

.

.
.
.

:

20/ .2011
.

.



.
.

9/

.

.

. :
.

. Mecanisme de suivi

.

.

8/
.
16/ .
.

.
. .
.

.

( ) .
.


.

.

.
.

.
(

) .

. .


.
- - .

- - .


.
. .
- -
.
- 2001
( )

.

.
.
.
/ .
. 985
73 .
.

.

.
.


.
.



.
.

.
.



.
2011 (
) (

) (
) .

. .

/
2011 .
.
.
107 395

101 .

.
.
.

.2007

.


.
.
.

.
.
. 45
. 2007 37
.

50
. 2007
.

20 .
20

. .
:

.

.

.

20
(
) .
.
20 .

. .

.

:

.
.
.

.


.
.

.
.

.

.
.

.
.


.



.


.

.
-
- .
.
.
.

10

(
)
(.)1


-
( 37 178) ( 56 182)
2003 .2011
.
:
( )
.
.
-
- .
.

.
.
.

.
.



.



70
70
.
.

.

/ 2011

(
)

.
. -
.
.
.
-
- .

.
14/ .
- .


.
.
/ .

. 65 60
1948
.


. .
-

.

11

12

.
.

.
27/
.

.

/ .
.



.

.

.
:
.
.
( )
.
(.)2
/ 2011

. .
/

11 (
) 13 (.)3

/
.
.
. 2005
.

2016 .
1.8 6.8
.
.2017

.


. 1.4

.

/ .
. /

.

( .
) .
.
/
/ .

13

14

.


/.
.

.


.

.


.

.
. .



.

.
.

.

.

.


.

.

:

.

.

:

. /


.
.
.

.

.
.2001

2001
.

15

16

.
.

3,000 .
. /



1971 . .


:
.

.

. /
.


/

.
.
.

/ .

23 / .
.

.


.
.


.

:

.


.



.

.

. 14/
1200
.
.
. /
.

.

17

18

(
)
/ / / .

.
( )
.
.

.
.2015
.

.
.



.

37
15 1.



.
2
.


. 93
.
. .

. 53
300 133.32 53
80
53
. .


3
.

.
.

:

.
.


.
/
.2013

.
.

:

/ 500

.

19

20

:

. / /

.
.
10
43


. / 50.000

2.6 .

.
/

. .
/
.

.

.


.

. . /

2009 .
/ /
200 .

1.55 .
.

. 24/
20 40
20 4.
129.000
20
5. .

:
.

.

.
.

.
.
.

21

22

.
/ (
) .
.
/
.
.
. . /

.

/ .

70 90


6
. /



.
.
28
/
6 /
.
.


.

:
.


.

.

.
.
.
.
. 2011
.
.

.
.

.
.
.

.

.
.



.

23

24

.
.


.

.

.
.
.
.

21 .
.

Saudi Arabia imposes ban on all protests, BBC News, March 5, 2011, http://
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12656744.
2
P. K. Abdul Ghafour, King issues decrees to solve housing, economic,

unemployment problems, Arab News February 23, 2011, http://arabnews.
com/saudiarabia/article281253.ece
3
King Abdullah addresses Saudi people, issues royal decrees, Royal

Embassy of Saudi Arabia, March 18, 2011, http://www.saudiembassy.net/
latest_news/news03181102.aspx.

Mahmoud Habboush, UAEs second election has low turnout,

Reuters, September 25, 2011,http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/09/24/ukemirates-elections-idUKTRE78N2N620110924

UAE leader promises more political rights to citizens, Reuters,

November
15, 2011, http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/
idAFL5E7MF2WJ20111115

Liam Stack, Seeking to Avoid Uprising, Kuwait Escalates Budget,

New York Times, June 30, 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/world/
middleeast/01kuwait.html?

25


: .
.

.

. Getting -
to Pluralism
-

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm

fa=view&id=41616Yemen on the Brink

. : Iraq: Elections 2010 - 2010
.
:
. (2002
)2004 ( )2005 2004
.
: The Arab Center: The
( Promise of Moderation .)2008

26

.
1910 .


.

.



.


.
.

27

Massachusetts Avenue, NW 1779
Washington, D.C. 20036
United States
P +1 202 483 7600 F +1 202 483 1840
CarnegieEndowment.org | info@CarnegieEndowment.org

Tverskaya, 16/2
Moscow 125009
Russia
P +7 495 935 8904 F +7 495 935 8906
Carnegie.ru | info@Carnegie.ru

-
No. 1 East Zhongguancun Street, Building 1
Tsinghua University Science Park
Innovation Tower, Room B1202C
Haidian District, Beijing 100084
China
P +86 10 8215 0178 F +86 10 6270 3536
CarnegieTsinghua.org

1210 2026
11-1061

+961 1 99 15 91 : | +961 1 99 12 91 :
Carnegie-MEC.org | info@Carnegie-MEC.org

Rue du Congrs 15
Brussels 1000
Belgium
P +32 2735 5650 F +32 2736 6222
CarnegieEurope.eu | brussels@ceip.org