Chapter 5:

Key sectors

pharmaceuticals
executive summary
Indias pharmaceuticals market is failing to fulfil its potential. Positive attributes include a huge population, a booming economy, a low-cost generic drug programme and relative political stability. However, sales of medicines are being restricted by faltering urbanisation, massive income disparities, insufficient state involvement in healthcare and, most importantly, a substandard intellectual property regime. Headline Expenditure Projections: Pharmaceuticals: INR613bn (US$13.4bn) in 2010 to INR717bn (US$16.0bn) in 2011; +16.9% in local currency terms and +19.9% in US dollar terms. Our long-term forecast has been revised up following a re-assessment of historic data. Healthcare: INR2,702bn (US$58.9bn) in 2010 to INR3,001bn (US$67.1bn) in 2011; +11.1% in local currency terms and +14.0% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised up moderately owing to analyst intervention. Medical Devices: INR132bn (US$2.89bn) in 2010 to INR153bn (US$3.43bn) in 2011; +15.8% in local currency terms and +18.9% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised up slightly owing to analyst intervention. Business Environment Rating: India is underperforming compared with its regional peers. The countrys score has remained static over the previous two quarters and a decrease is possible in the Q411 update of this report, due to a recent downward revision of its pharmaceutical market. India scores above the regional average for industry rewards and industry risks, but below the average for country rewards and country risks. Key Trends And Developments: In May, the Drugs Controller General of India (DCGI) put a temporary halt on marketing approvals for new drugs in

key therapeutic segments. The DCGI has announced that approvals will be provided after the countrys medicine regulator streamlines a new system which will establish a 10-member New Drug Advisory Committee. In April, the Indian government was planning to publish details of every medicine patented in the country on its website in the next two to three months, according to P H Kurien, controller general of patents. The move is part of the governments transparency drive to enable Indian pharmaceutical companies to challenge patent holders and market generic version of high-priced patented drugs. In March, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee announced the roll back of the proposed 5% service tax on healthcare, as suggested in the 2011/12 federal budget proposals. The minister took the decision following criticism from the opposition and medical fraternity in the country. The minister previously proposed a 5% service tax on air-conditioned hospitals with more than 25 beds and on diagnostic services.

Market overview
India is the fourth largest market in the Asia Pacific region, behind Japan, China and South Korea. However, US$11 per capita spending is among the lowest in the world, similar to levels in Pakistan and Vietnam. Pharmaceutical expenditure in 2010 was 0.8% of GDP, which is well below the global average of 1.4%. Generic drugs will continue to account for the vast majority of drug consumption in India (at around 70% of total spending), largely owing to the low cost and limited purchasing power of most of the population. A substantial amount of the Indian generic drug market comprises illicit products, due to the countrys lax patent laws. However, conditions are quickly changing for the better. In recent years, India has begun to export large amounts of generic drugs to the international market, which has proved highly lucrative. The separation of the prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines remains problematic, given the large volume of prescription drugs available over the counter as well as the presence
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india Q4 2011

of counterfeit drugs. The development of the healthcare system should improve the situation with the respective sectors gradually becoming more clearly defined. While prescription drugs account for approximately 80% of sales, the share of drugs prescribed by a doctor is likely to be far lower. Traditional and ayurvedic medicines very popular; however, these types of interventions are not included in our pharmaceutical market calculation. Alimentary tract, antibiotics and respiratory drugs are some of the most prominent prescription segments, as are cardiovascular and nervous system remedies, with vitamins leading the OTC sector. India accounts for almost 10% of global drug production by volume and is increasingly focusing on indigenous research and development (R&D). There are about 3,000 pharmaceutical manufacturers, the vast majority of which focus on generic drugs. India is home to 250 large manufacturers, and the domestic drug industry employs a workforce of approximately 460,000 people. However, underproduction of essential drugs is a considerable problem in India, which has led to an increase in imports of these products, despite strict price controls.
taBLe: patented druG saLes indicators 2007-2015
2007
Patented drug sales (us$bn) Patented drug sales (us$bn), % chg y-o-y Patented drug sales (inrbn) Patented drug sales (inrbn), % chg y-o-y Patented drug sales, % of prescription sales Patented drug sales, % of total sales 0.733 13.5 32.138 14.6 9.940 8.00

Regulatory Environment: Drug policy is governed by the 1986 law, which has been modified a number of times. The regulation seeks to guarantee reasonable prices for essential and life-saving drugs and their quality, as well as promote indigenous capacity for satisfying pharmaceutical demand. The legislation provides the basis for quality protection, although adverse drug monitoring and similar initiatives remain underfunded and partially neglected. While the drug registration is centralised, licenses for manufacturing and sales are given by a food and drug administration of each of the state governments, which adds layers of bureaucracy to the process. Prescription-only drugs are listed in Schedules H and X, which are included in the Drug & Cosmetics Act. Schedule G drugs mostly antihistamines do not require a prescription, but must carry a warning label. Drugs listed in Schedule H, X and G cannot be advertised to the public. Schedule K medicines (household remedies) can be sold in certain non-drug-licensed stores, but only in villages that have fewer than 1,000 inhabitants. The main regulatory body in India is the Central Drug Standard Control Organisation, under the auspices of the Department of

2008
0.786 7.1 35.995 12.0 10.191 8.12

2009
0.920 17.1 43.240 20.1 10.216 8.23

2010
1.115 21.2 51.140 18.3 10.352 8.34

2011f
1.356 21.6 60.599 18.5 10.482 8.45

2012f
1.623 19.7 71.399 17.8 10.604 8.57

2013f
1.965 21.1 83.525 17.0 10.716 8.69

2014f
2.392 21.7 97.175 16.3 10.819 8.81

2015f
2.863 19.7 112.376 15.6 10.913 8.93

f = forecast. Source: IMS Health, AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS, Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI), BMI

taBLe: otc Medicine saLes indicators 2007-2015

2007
otc medicine sales (us$bn) otc medicine sales (us$bn), % chg y-o-y otc medicine sales (inrbn) otc medicine sales (inrbn), % chg y-o-y otc medicine sales, % of total sales 1.789 8.7 78.4 9.8 19.51

2008
1.967 9.9 90.1 14.9 20.32

2009
2.176 10.6 102.3 13.5 19.46

2010
2.600 19.5 119.3 16.6 19.45

2011f
3.103 19.4 138.7 16.3 19.35

2012f
3.631 17.0 159.8 15.2 19.18

2013f
4.281 17.9 182.0 13.9 18.93

2014f
5.051 18.0 205.2 12.8 18.60

2015f
5.836 15.5 229.1 11.6 18.20

f = forecast. Source: IMS Health, AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS, Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI), BMI

taBLe: Generic druG saLes indicators 2007-2015

2008
Generic drug sales (us$bn) Generic drug sales (us$bn), % chg y-o-y Generic drug sales (inrbn) Generic drug sales (inrbn), % chg y-o-y Generic drug sales, % of prescription sales Generic drug sales, % of total sales 6.925 4.2 317.2 8.9 89.809 71.56

2009
8.088 16.8 380.0 19.8 89.784 72.31

2010
9.657 19.4 442.9 16.5 89.648 72.22

2011f
11.577 19.9 517.5 16.8 89.518 72.19

2012f
13.680 18.2 601.9 16.3 89.396 72.25

2013f
16.375 19.7 695.9 15.6 89.284 72.39

2014f
19.718 20.4 801.0 15.1 89.181 72.60

2015f
23.374 18.5 917.4 14.5 89.087 72.88

f = forecast. Source: IMS Health, AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS, Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI), BMI

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KeY sectors

Health, although a new authority is presently being created.

industry Forecast
Generic Drug: Indias INR442.9bn (US$9.66bn) generic drug market is characterised by healthy growth, low pack prices, medicines that would be termed patented in most other countries, and very few foreign players. BMI forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.7% through to 2020, when the sector will have a value of INR1,690bn (US$44.48bn). The major driver of the countrys generic drug market is the patent regime, which does not meet international standards. Under Indian intellectual property law, drugmakers can use a process called reverse engineering to manufacture drugs patented before 1995. This means that many blockbuster medicines are available in India at very low prices. As with most other countries, generic drugs are predominantly sold in hospitals and pharmacies. Perhaps the most promising sales outlets are part of the Jan Aushadhi scheme. These stores sell unbranded generic medicines at prices that are affordable to the majority of the vast 1.17bn population. However, the Jan Aushadi programme is struggling to make an impact. As of August 2010, only 46 out of a planned 300 stores had opened since 2008. The slow pace of the programme was blamed on a lack of support from the Department of Pharmaceuticals. Later that month it was revealed that plans to source unbranded generic drugs from small- and medium-sized firms for Jan Aushadhi outlets had been dropped. By December 2010, a total of 79 Jan Aushadhi stores had opened. To maintain the programmes momentum, the government said it would spend INR900-950mn (US$19.88-20.98mn) in order to increase the number of low-cost medicine stores to 740 over the next two years. The top 10 pharmaceutical firms in India are dominated by generic drug manufacturers. According to market research

firm AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS, the leading domestic company is Mumbai-based Cipla, which generated sales of INR3,007 crore (US$571mn) in the year to July 2010. Meanwhile, the best selling medicine is Pfizers antihistamine Corex (chlorphenamine). The fact that this products active ingredient was discovered nearly 60 years ago underlines the developing nature of Indias pharmaceutical market. OTC Medicine: Sales of OTC medicines in India are forecast to increase from INR119.3bn (US$2.60bn) in 2010 to INR229.1bn (US$5.84bn) in 2015, representing a CAGR of 14.0%. The review of the Schedule K Drugs (prescription-only products) and Cosmetics is presently under way, resulting in the likely liberalisation of OTC sales. The Schedule K notification (Ref. GSR No.471 (E)) dated August 4 2006 seeks to allow sale of household remedies in general stores much more common than pharmacies but is only applicable to settlements where the population is less than 1,000. Moreover, prescription-toOTC switches have been encouraged through the revision of Schedule H, which lists drugs that can only be prescribed by a general practitioner or hospital doctor. Leading OTC categories include vitamins and minerals, cough and cold, gastrointestinal remedies, analgesics, dermatologicals and herbal medicines, according to AESGP data. However, many prescription drugs can be purchased without prescription, which has meant that OTC switching is not actively promoted. Nevertheless, progress has been slow as there are still hundreds of molecules on Schedule H that are safe, effective and classified as OTC in many other parts of the world. Two such examples are the antihistamine chlorpheniramine and the cough suppressant dextromethorphan. Both have been recommended for removal from Schedule H, but reclassification is still on the horizon. Signifying the scale of the problem, 534 other drugs are in the same position. Currently, about 80% of OTCs are sold through chemists and drugstores, with direct sales and sales through grocers only

taBLe: prescription druG saLes indicators 2007-2015

2007
Prescription drug sales (us$bn) Prescription drug sales (us$bn), % chg y-o-y Prescription drug sales (inrbn) Prescription drug sales (inrbn), % chg y-o-y Prescription drug sales, % of total sales 7.379 12.9 323.3 14.0 80.49

2008
7.711 4.5 353.2 9.2 79.68

2009
9.008 16.8 423.3 19.8 80.54

2010
10.772 19.6 494.0 16.7 80.55

2011f
12.933 20.1 578.1 17.0 80.65

2012f
15.303 18.3 673.3 16.5 80.82

2013f
18.340 19.8 779.5 15.8 81.07

2014f
22.110 20.6 898.2 15.2 81.40

2015f
26.237 18.7 1,029.8 14.6 81.80

f = forecast. Source: IMS Health, AIOCD Pharmasofttech AWACS, Organisation of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI), BMI

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india Q4 2011

allowed in rural areas with fewer than 1,000 inhabitants. If the changes receive legislative approval, aspirin, acetaminophen, analgesic balms, antacids, oral dehydration solution, gripe water, cough and cold treatments including inhalers, tetracycline-based ophthalmic ointments and low-dose hormonal contraceptives will become available as OTCs, significantly boosting their respective therapeutic areas. However, the true OTC segment will continue to suffer strong competition from traditional medicines, including ayurveda, unani and siddha. According to official data, around 70% of all people in India use such remedies for primary healthcare that are not recorded in the pharmaceutical industry statistics. The traditional medicine sector is presently undertaking a US$2mn project to fund the creation of the Traditional Knowledge Digital Library in order to prevent companies and individuals from claiming patents and rights on such remedies. Prescription: Indias prescription drug market represents one of the most significant growth opportunities in the global pharmaceutical industry. Sales of prescription medicines are forecast to increase from INR494bn (US$10.77bn) in 2010 to INR578bn (US$12.93bn) in 2011. Due to the strengthening rupee, this equates to growth of 17.0% in local currency terms and 20.1% in US dollar terms. A booming economy and greater state involvement in healthcare will ensure this growth trajectory continues over the medium term. BMIs Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model reveals that sales of prescription drugs will post 2010-15 CAGRs of 15.8% in rupees and 19.5% in US dollars. The respective 10-year CAGRs are 14.5% and 16.6%. By 2020, the prescription drug sector will have reached a value of INR1,905bn (US$50.13bn). Prescription drugs account for the majority of Indias pharmaceutical market, which we define as sales of OTC medicines plus prescription drugs. As of year-end 2010, prescribed medicines accounted for 80.1% of the overall market. This share is expected to increase gradually through to 2020, due greater demand for expensive prescription medicines. A key driver of prescription drug sales in India is the modernisation and expansion of the healthcare sector. According to the Central Bureau of Health Intelligence, the number of hospitals in the South Asian country increased from 5,479 in 2005 to 11,289 in 2008 a rise of over 100%. A total of 6,298 hospitals with 142,396 beds are situated in rural areas while 2,774 hospitals with 324,206 beds are in urban zones.

The number of doctors registered with state medical councils has increased from 560,000 in 2000 to 725,000 in 2008. More prescribers, combined with a larger and generally wealthier population, equates to higher prescription drug sales. However, this growth will be moderated by fewer dispensing doctors, a trend for rational prescribing, prosecution of quacks and less off-label prescribing. In October 2010, the DCGI imposed strict rules to curb the excessive sale of antibiotics, which has been blamed on the emergence of the superbug New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase 1 (NDM-1). Because antibiotics are readily available over the counter in India, and are therefore ingrained in consumer purchasing habits, BMI does not expect a dramatic drop (>25%) in sales of antibiotics in the near term. Patented Drug: Patented medicines will remain a marginal player in the overall market, having only posted around INR51.14bn (US$1.12bn) in 2010 sales. The figure is likely to reach INR112.38bn (US$2.86bn) by the end of the five-year forecast period, although patented pharmaceuticals are predicted to gain some market share at the expense of generic drugs. International players will remain the leading suppliers of novel and hi-tech drugs, but some larger local companies will increasingly invest in their own R&D activities as a means of keeping their competitiveness in a strictly price-controlled market. As the disease profile of the Indian sub-continent becomes increasingly Western in style, sales of more advanced medicines, such as those to treat cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and cancer-related conditions will be key drivers. Most of the demand will be satisfied by imported novel medicines, especially on the hi-tech end of the scale. A downside risk to BMIs patented drug market forecast is state-mandated prescribing of generic drugs. In July 2010, doctors in all government-owned hospitals in Delhi, India, were instructed to prescribe medicines by their generic names and not by the costlier brands of any company. A directive by the state government stated that the officers of Drugs Control Department have been ordered to monitor the prescriptions of doctors in hospitals and dispensaries under the auspices of the Delhi government.

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KeY sectors

telecommunications
executive summary
The total number of mobile subscribers in India reached 811.59mn at the end of March, representing an annual growth rate of 38.9%, compared to a 43% y-o-y increase ended December 2010. According to the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), however, the number of active mobile subscribers stood at 573.97mn as of March, equal to 70.7% of the total with the remainder made up of inactive subscriptions and multiple SIM ownership. Competition among operators remains fierce particularly relating to pricing. More recently, however, the introduction of mobile number portability (MNP) has added to this, with the TRAI reporting that, between January 20 and April 28, the number of requests for MNP reached 9mn and that, if this trend continued, around 4.5% of the roughly 811mn subscribers would have availed of MNP. In terms of net gains, Vodafone Essar led with 513,259 subscribers joining its network, followed by Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular on 506,828 and 470,986 respectively. In terms of the biggest losers, Reliance Communications GSM lost around 615,710 subscribers, followed by its CDMA unit making a loss of 355,037 with BSNL following on 409,028. However, in terms of overall impact on the growth of the mobile sector in the short term, we see no significant change. Among the operators to have launched 3G services, Idea Cellular
taBLe: FiXed-Line HistoricaL data & Forecasts
2008
no. of main telephone lines in service (000) no. of main telephone lines/100 inhabitants f = BMI forecast. Source: TRAI, BMI 37,898 3.3

came to the market at the end of March 2011, and claimed around 1mn user by April of the same year. Idea Cellular launched its 3G Services on March 28 in three circles Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and since then has been progressively launching 3G services in six other circles of UP East, UP West, Maharashtra & Goa, Kerala, Haryana and Andhra Pradesh. However, we have made no significant revisions to our 3G subscriber forecasts as we expect operators to retain a premium on the new technology to recoup their hefty initial capital outlay, which has a dampening effect on early mass market adoption. In terms of the fixed-line and broadband markets, the TRAI released latest data for December 2010 and March 2011, although this has not led to a revision in our forecasts. There were a total of 35.09mn fixed lines in December 2010, which fell slightly to 34.73mn fixed lines largely related to increased fixed-to-mobile migration as the cost of mobile services fell. As for the number of broadband subscribers, this reached 10.99mn as of calendar 2010 and rose to 11.87mn as of March 2011.

industry Forecast
Internet: Indias telecoms regulator reported there were 18.69mn internet subscribers in the country in December 2010, reflecting a q-o-q increase of 4.5%. As for the number of broadband subscribers, this totalled 10.99mn at the end of 2010, representing a q-o-q increase of 6.64%. Due to a lack of new data from the International Telecommunica-

2009e
37,065 3.2

2010
35,090 3.0

2011f
32,634 2.8

2012f
30,186 2.5

2013f
28,375 2.3

2014f
27,240 2.2

2015f
26,695 2.1

taBLe: internet HistoricaL data and Forecasts

2008
no. of internet users (000) no. of internet users/100 inhabitants no. of broadband internet subscribers (000) no. of broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants f = BMI forecast. Source: TRAI, BMI 204,966 17.5 5,525 0.5

2009
247,700 21.4 7,822 0.7

2010
292,049 24.9 10,990 0.9

2011f
335,026 28.2 17,472 1.5

2012f
368,904 30.7 28,829 2.4

2013f
400,180 32.9 49,009 4.0

2014f
425,332 34.5 78,414 6.4

2015f
445,444 35.7 117,622 9.4

taBLe: MoBiLe arpu HistoricaL data and Forecasts (inr)

2008
GsM Blended arPu cdMa Blended arPu average f = forecast. Source: BMI, TRAI 220 111 165.5

2009
144 82 113

2010
105 68 86.5

2011f
92.6 60.3 76.4

2012f
86.9 54.2 70.6

2013f
82.4 50.6 66.5

2014f
81.1 49.2 65.1

2015f
80 48.7 64.4

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tion Union, we retained our previous estimate of about 292mn internet users at the end of 2010. Meanwhile, we continue to forecast 335.03mn internet users in India by 2011 and expect this number to increase to 445.44mn in 2015. The main drivers for this increase are the rapid emergence of Indias middle class and the growing prevalence of mobile devices enabling affordable internet accessibility. BSNL, MTNL and Reliance Communications are the main providers of broadband services in India. The three players account for 80.59% of the market in December 2010. However, we note that the two state-owned entities problems are mounting, which prompted the government to revive a proposal to merge the two operators in order to boost their competitiveness in Indias increasingly harsh business environment. The operators financial troubles could affect their ability to invest in broadband services rollout. That said, the government was reportedly planning to provide an annual subsidy of INR30bn to help the state entities fulfil their rural expansion obligations. Consequently, we expect the number of broadband subscribers to continue increasing due to support from the public and private sectors. The government is also trying to auction 4G spectrum in the 700MHz frequency bands, which would complement the 2.3GHz broadband wireless access licences auction in 2010. We expect 17.472mn broadband subscribers in India by 2011. We expect an acceleration in the subscriber growth in 2012 and 2013 due to an increase in take-up for 3G and potentially 4G mobile broadband services. Thereafter, we expect the growth momentum to decline as the market approaches saturation to bring the markets total to 117.622mn in 2015. Fixed Line: There were 35.09mn fixed-line subscribers in India at the end of December 2010, down from 35.57mn in the previous quarter. This latest data is in line with our view that fixed-to-mobile migration is gaining traction, which explains the long-term decline for the number of fixed lines in the country. We expect a slight acceleration in the migration during the short term. The launch of 3G services also creates potential for more sophisticated value-added services, which would boost the attractiveness of mobile services. Besides the mobile substitution trend, the dominance of BSNL in the fixed-line market has not helped industry development. The state-owned entity had 73.1% of the market in December 2010 and smaller operators such as Reliance Communications have been largely unsuccessful at eroding BSNLs market share. Considering the sectors bleak

outlook, operators could be disinclined to commit further capital expenditure to improve network quality and coverage. That said, the market attracted a new entrant in February 2011 after Vodafone Essar launched its wireline service targeted at the business segment. This could have a mitigating effect, which would slow down the industrys decline in the short term. We forecast 32.634mn fixed-line subscribers by end-2011 and we expect this number to decrease to 26.695mn by 2015, representing a penetration rate of 2.1% Mobile: Our average revenue per user (ARPU) forecasts for India are based on historical data published by the TRAI. The TRAI publishes separate data for GSM and CDMA services, and we have therefore developed a separate ARPU forecast for each of the two services. The publication of figures for the end of December 2010 by the TRAI have led us to review our ARPU forecast for India. As of December 2010, blended GSM ARPU had reached INR105 for Indias operators representing a y-o-y decline of 27.1%. This was lower than the 34.5% y-o-y fall in the previous year to reach INR144 but still represented double-digit falls. Operators are showing little success in preventing the decline in ARPU levels due to an ongoing price war, an acceleration of rural expansion and the dominance of prepaid subscribers in their total subscriber base. As for blended CDMA ARPU, this fell by 17.1% y-o-y to INR68. That said, premium 3G services could mitigate and slow down the ARPU decline, as well as help operators stabilise ARPU levels in the medium term. However, the price war could spread to the 3G market once all operators offer commercial services. Operators could engage in potentially detrimental price competition to catch up with companies that launched 3G services earlier. Due to a lack of 3G subscriber data and its limited impact following the launch, we note there is potential positive impact on operators ARPU. However, until we see concrete evidence of strong performances, we retained our forecast of a long-term ARPU downtrend. Following the publication of ARPU data for December 2010 by the TRAI, we have revised our forecast. By the end of 2011, we forecast Indias blended GSM ARPU to reach INR92.6 and expect a steady decline to reach INR80 by 2015. Similarly, we forecast the countrys blended CDMA ARPU to reach INR60.3 from 2011 and fall to INR48.7 as of 2015.

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KeY sectors

other Key sectors

Latest Forecast data
Below are the latest forecast tables for our other core key sectors:
taBLe: deFence and securitY sector KeY indicators
2008
defence expenditure, inrmn [1] defence expenditure, % of GdP [2] defence expenditure, inr per capita of population [2] defence expenditure, us$mn, constant prices [1] defence expenditure, constant us$ per capita of population [1] 2.6 1,234 32,334 28.4

2009
2.6 1,522.4 36,600 31.7

2010e
2.6 1,623.3 36,600 31.3

2011f
2.6 1,841.9 37,022 31.2

2012f
2.6 2,096.4 40,656 33.8

2013f
2.6 2,379.1 47,310 38.9

2014f
2.6 2,686.3 53,239 43.2

2015f
2.6 3,013 57,468 46.1

1,406,692 1,759,034 1,900,788 2,185,632 2,520,050 2,896,101 3,310,204 3,756,954

Notes: e/f = BMI estimates/forecasts. Sources: 1 SIPRI/BMI; 2 SIPRI, BMI calculation.

taBLe: oiL and Gas sector KeY indicators

2007
Proven oil reserves, bn barrels [1] oil production, 000b/d [1] oil consumption, 000b/d [1] Oil refinery capacity, 000b/d [1] oil imports, us$mn [1] Petroleum imports, us$mn [1] Export of refined products, 000b/d [1] Proven gas reserves, bcm [1] Gas production, bcm [1] Gas consumption, bcm [1] Gas imports, bcm [1] 5.460 840.6 2,800.8 2,983.3 49.4 52.58 518.2 1,055 31.4 41.4 10.0

2008
5.800 843.0 2,950.0 2,992.1 72.5 77.19 378.7 1,090 32.2 43.0 10.8

2009
5.820 832.0 3,110.0 3,574.4 50.7 54.53 866.6 1,115 40.4 53 12.6

2010e
5.880 909.7 3,252.9 3,610.0 66.2 70.23 756.4 1,120 45.0 55.5 10.5

2011f
5.950 1,035.1 3,364.4 3,790.0 86.6 90.90 844.2 1,250 50.0 58.4 8.4

2012f
5.950 1,095.1 3,476.1 3,970.0 82.6 85.02 931.7 1,300 57.0 62.2 5.2

2013f
6.000 1,149.8 3,567.5 3,970.0 79.4 82.33 839.2 1,500 60.0 66.5 6.5

2014f
5.940 940.0 3,632.2 3,970.0 88.4 88.98 773.3 1,600 70.0 71.2 1.2

2015f
5.880 925.0 3,661.0 3,970.0 89.9 91.30 743.3 1,600 73.0 76.2 3.2

Notes: e/f = BMI estimates/forecasts. Sources: 1 EIA/BMI.

taBLe: autos sector KeY indicators

2009
Vehicles, units [1] Passenger cars, units [2] commercial vehicles, units [2] Vehicles, units [3] Passenger cars, units [4] commercial vehicles, units [3] Passenger car density, cars per 1,000 of population [5] 2,917,848 2,351,240 566,608 2,481,711 1,949,776 531,935 12.9

2010e
3,740,721 2,987,986 752,735 3,196,829 2,520,421 676,408 14.4

2011f
4,750,027 3,884,382 865,645 4,074,709 3,276,547 798,161 15.8

2012f
5,282,962 4,296,126 986,836 4,475,837 3,574,713 901,124 17.4

2013f
5,872,212 4,747,220 1,124,993 4,919,154 3,903,587 1,015,567 19.3

2014f
6,496,558 5,221,941 1,274,617 5,384,537 4,247,102 1,137,435 21.2

2015f
7,153,368 5,723,248 1,430,120 5,885,675 4,620,847 1,264,828 23.4

Notes: e/f = BMI estimates/forecasts. Sources: 1 OICA/BMI calculation; 2 OICA; 3 SIAM/BMI calculation; 4 SIAM; 5 World Bank/BMI.

taBLe: Food and drinK sector KeY indicators

2008
food consumption, us$bn [1,2] Per capita food consumption us$ [1,2] confectionery sales, us$mn [1,3] alcoholic drinks sales, us$mn [1,3] soft drinks sales, us$mn [1,3] total mass grocery retail sales, us$bn [1,3] exports of food and drink, us$mn [4] imports of food and drink, us$mn [4] food and drink trade balance us$mn [4] 169.2 148.4 531.2 12,349.6 1,923.3 4.4 12,600 7,125 5,475.0

2009
172.1 148.9 579.0 13,409.8 2,027.0 5.3 12,937 7,203 5,733.9

2010e
188.7 161.2 693.8 16,080.3 2,405.0 7.2 15,055 8,607 6,447.6

2011f
198.3 167.2 780.1 17,472.4 2,594.3 8.8 17,434 9,838 7,595.7

2012f
226.5 188.4 935.9 20,607.8 3,018.8 11.6 20,261 11,394 8,867.6

2013f
271.3 222.9 1,179.6 25,534.9 3,700.5 16.1 23,755 13,300 10,455.2

2014f
314.4 255.2 1,437.6 30,624.5 4,402.3 21.7 27,650 15,310 12,340.0

2015f
352.2 282.4 1,680.5 35,342.9 5,042.5 28.1 32,019 17,551 14,468.3

Notes: e/f = BMI estimates/forecasts. 1 US$ forecast using moving FX rates; Sources: 2 Central Statistical Organisation, BMI; 3 Central Statistical Organisation, company information, BMI; 4 UNCTAD, Central Statistics Organisation, BMI.

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india Q4 2011

taBLe: inFrastructure sector KeY indicators

2007
construction industry value, inrbn [1] construction industry value, us$bn [1] construction industry, real growth, % y-o-y [1] construction industry value, % GdP [1] 3,815.21 87.1 10.00 7.7

2008
4,500.21 98.2 5.90 8.1

2009
4,883.45 103.9 6.86 7.6

2010e
5,923.14 129.2 8.86 7.8

2011f
7,075.19 158.3 9.45 8.1

2012f
193 9.76 8.5

2013f
237.6 8.94 8.8

2014f
290.5 7.60 9.1

2015f
347.9 6.95 9.2

8,490.93 10,099.11 11,800.92 13,653.66

Notes: e/f = BMI estimates/forecasts. Sources: 1 Reserve Bank of India.

taBLe: FreiGHt transport sector KeY indicators

2008
agricultural raw materials, imports, us$mn agricultural raw materials, imports, % y-o-y agricultural raw materials, exports, us$mn agricultural raw materials, exports, % y-o-y ores and metals, exports, us$mn ores and metals, exports, % y-o-y ores and metals, imports, us$mn ores and metals, imports, % y-o-y iron and steel, exports, us$mn iron and steel, exports, % y-o-y iron and steel, imports, us$mn iron and steel, imports, % y-o-y Manufactured goods, exports, us$mn Manufactured goods, exports, % y-o-y Manufactured goods, imports, us$mn Manufactured goods, imports, % y-o-y fuels, exports, us$mn fuels, exports, % y-o-y fuels, imports, us$mn fuels, imports, % y-o-y air freight tonnes (000) air freight tonnes/km (mn tonne km) rail freight tonnes (000) Port of calcutta throughput, tonnes '000 Port of Haldia throughput, tonnes '000 Port of Paradip throughput, tonnes '000 Port of Vishakhapatnam throughput, tonnes '000 Port of chennai throughput, tonnes '000 Port of tuticorin throughput, tonnes '000 Port of cochin throughput, tonnes '000 Port of new Mangalore throughput, tonnes '000 Port of Mormugao throughput, tonnes '000 Port of Mumbai throughput, tonnes '000 Port of Jawaharlal nehru throughput, tonnes '000 Port of Kandla throughput, tonnes '000 Port of ennore throughput, tonnes '000 Source: National Statistics/BMI 4,630.1 22.9 3,156.0 9.1 11,694.0 3.4 17,297.3 26.7 11,217.2 36.9 9,637.7 16.5 98,014.9 23.5 126,868.2 36.8 32,853.0 39.1 115,836.6 58.2 456.8 1.1 512.0 12,428.0 41,623.0 46,412.0 63,908.0 14,000.0 22,011.0 15,228.0 36,691.0 41,681.0 51,876.0 57,291.0 72,225.0 11,500.0

2009
4,234.3 -8.5 3,228.1 2.3 12,375.8 5.8 16,254.3 -6.0 10,352.8 -7.7 8,895.0 -7.7 94,353.5 -3.7 115,492.4 -9.0 24,000.5 -26.9 88,045.0 -24.0 464.8 1.2 533.4 13,045.0 33,378.0 57,011.0 65,501.0 13,000.0 23,787.0 17,429.0 35,528.0 48,847.0 54,541.0 60,763.0 79,500.0 10,703.0

2010e
4,888.5 15.4 4,198.8 30.1 16,413.3 32.6 20,386.0 25.4 13,371.1 29.2 11,488.3 29.2 116,926.9 23.9 143,289.1 24.1 34,726.5 44.7 108,625.5 23.4 500.4 1.2 567.3 12,540.0 34,892.0 56,030.0 68,041.0 18,000.0 25,727.0 17,873.0 31,550.0 50,022.0 54,585.0 64,299.0 81,880.0 11,009.0

2011f
5,513.8 12.8 5,382.8 28.2 21,291.5 29.7 24,335.1 19.4 17,052.8 27.5 14,651.6 27.5 144,461.8 23.5 169,857.2 18.5 42,047.1 21.1 128,296.5 18.1 530.1 1.3 593.6 13,405.3 38,495.9 59,959.7 72,364.5 18,950.3 26,955.5 18,251.9 32,841.3 50,630.1 60,126.4 70,208.6 85,917.7 11,873.5

2012
6,474.9 17.4 6,728.5 25.0 26,697.0 25.4 30,405.1 24.9 21,237.4 24.5 18,246.9 24.5 175,757.5 21.7 210,694.4 24.0 50,972.7 21.2 158,532.2 23.6 573.6 1.5 633.4 14,479.1 40,017.3 64,738.4 76,818.5 21,049.3 28,976.1 19,009.9 33,664.7 55,898.7 66,905.3 79,067.7 96,974.7 12,449.3

2013f
7,825.9 20.9 8,620.2 28.1 34,410.8 28.9 38,937.8 28.1 27,119.7 27.7 23,300.9 27.7 219,750.0 25.0 268,099.3 27.2 61,958.1 21.6 201,034.6 26.8 619.8 1.6 674.8 15,466.5 40,831.8 70,346.1 82,045.2 23,512.4 31,347.2 19,576.2 33,798.1 62,081.2 72,833.0 89,458.1 109,707.4 13,125.0

2014f
9,241.1 18.1 10,743.9 24.6 43,113.6 25.3 47,876.1 23.0 33,723.6 24.4 28,974.9 24.4 269,139.8 22.5 328,233.0 22.4 74,291.3 19.9 245,557.4 22.1 667.3 1.8 718.1 16,426.3 41,468.5 75,884.1 87,206.9 25,944.9 33,688.9 20,176.3 33,921.7 68,186.9 78,667.1 99,721.9 122,395.6 13,792.3

2015f
10,831.5 17.2 13,172.4 22.6 52,893.4 22.7 57,920.4 21.0 41,275.1 22.4 35,463.1 22.4 325,616.2 21.0 395,807.4 20.6 88,394.1 19.0 295,589.3 20.4 718.4 1.9 764.6 17,504.7 42,291.6 82,075.3 92,977.4 28,664.4 36,306.7 20,805.4 34,077.0 75,012.8 85,152.7 111,194.1 136,481.3 14,538.2

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