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Analyst Presentation Half Year Results 2007: 20 July 2007
Analyst Presentation Half Year Results 2007: 20 July 2007
20 July 2007
Agenda
Business Review H1 2007 Financial Figures H1 2007 Outlook FY 07 & Conclusions B. Moschni W. De Laet B. Moschni
93.0% 90.5%
(**)
95%
85%
80%
75%
100
107 88
0 2004
Mobistar
70%
2005
Competition
2006
H1 2007
90%
Continued net gain MNP in H1 2007 (with Mobistar still as the only net MNP winner on the market)
-22,288 +22,371
+85,213
+19,897
-65,316
+2,834
-19,309
-443
3,199,735(*)
2,912,806
1000000 500000 0 2005 Postpaid RES 2006 Postpaid BUS Prepaid H1 2007
Highest proportion of postpaid customers in the market Net growth in postpaid for almost 50% due to net growth in the business market
(*) Excluding MVNO customers, ~40,000 as at end H1 07; ~13,000 end 2006
60 50.6% 40
34.6%
~ 35%
20
14.7%
0 2001
2002
2005
2006
H1 2007
/ month
/ MONTH
39.05 38.02
38.75
-2.42
+0.57
36.64 -1.68
35
-0.74 -4.92
5.49
36.90
34.68
30 2003 2004 2005 H1 2006 2006 MTR decrease Roaming on net Rev/min Usage H1 2007
Upward trend in traffic confirmed, mainly driven by migration to postpaid and by prepaid consumption increase (*)
Average traffic/customer/month
160
Average usage/month
120
80
40
0 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Voice Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07
SMS
10
60 40 20 0
H1 2006
SMS/MMS p-to-p premium SMS
H1 2007
GPRS/EDGE (incl. WAP)
Mobile data revenues up to 17.4% of mobile service revenues in H1 07 (from 15.4% H1 06) non-SMS mobile data represent 16% of total mobile data revenues Supported by the successful uptake of Blackberry and Mobile Office Cards in the Business market Orange World usage in Residential market
11
59.6
-2.6
56.9
-0.6
49.5
-6.5 -0.4
/ month
40 30 20 10 - 7.5 0
H1 2006 MTR H1 2006 proforma roaming price rev/min (domestic) AUPU H1 2007
Lower usage profile of pre- to postpaid migrations Price pressure in the business market (limited elasticity)
12
17.2
16.1
-0.1
16.5
/ month
12 10 8 6 4 2 0
H1 2006 MTR H1 2006 proforma roaming rev/min AUPU H1 2007
-4.4
+ 5.0
+ 0.5
Usage advantage linked with re-load frequency Usage increase mainly linked with strong success of Tempo Music offer
13
Mobistar Strategy
Mobile Centric
RESIDENTIAL Fix Mobile Substitution
Mobistar as a preferred mobility provider, i.e. mobile centric player
14
Customer benefits :
For all your calls: 1 phone, 1 address book Easy to use Save on your Belgacom fee No clogged line at home
Evidence of success 45,000 @Home contracts sold by end June 2007 (launched in March 07) @Home customers show 50% increase in traffic to fix phones Traffic to fix represents 30% for @Home customers (vs. 12% in total base)
15
Customer benefits:
- Important savings on mobile and fix bills - One contract and one customer service for the mobile & fix Success of Voice Pack proves that business market wants to benefit from fix-mobile convergence advantages Strong take-up (launched in May 07): ~30% of Mobile Voice gross adds Attracting high-value customers Combining fix&mobile in a pack strengthens the positioning in the fix voice market
16
17
Consolidated income statement : Stable EBITDA margin and slight increase in net profit
Mio
Total Statutory Revenues (*) Total Turnover Total Service Revenues
H1 2007
761.8 747.2 720.9 -459.8 302.0
H1 2006
772.0 758.1 736.8 - 463.1 308.9
%
-1.3% -1.4% -2.2% -0.7% -2.2%
Cash Expenses
EBITDA
In % of service revenues
Depreciations and amortizations EBIT Net financial charges Corporate Taxes Net income EPS ()
41.9%
-81.5 220.5 1.4 -71.2 150.7 2.38
41.9%
- 91.3 217.6 0.3 - 70.1 147.8 2.34 -10.7% +1.3% N.A. +1.6% +2.0% 1.7%
18
(*) includes other revenues (14.6m EURO in H1 2007 and 13.9m EURO in H1 2006)
12.6
1.8
-2.2% 720.9
H1 2006
Incoming Revenues
Roaming on-net
Billed revenues
Other
H1 2007
19
Mio
Total Turnover (*) Mobile Service Revenues Cash Expenses EBITDA
H1 2007
704.3 678.2 -415.5 302.8
H1 2006
715.3 694.0 - 420.4 307.9
%
-1.5% -2.3% -1.2% -1.7%
In % of service revenues
Depreciations and amortizations EBIT
44.7%
-80.8 222.0
44.4%
- 90.4 217.5 -10.6% +2.1%
20
(*) includes handset sales (26.1m EURO in H1 2007 and 21.3m EURO in H1 2006)
Mio
Total Turnover Fix Service Revenues Cash Expenses EBITDA In % of service revenues Depreciations and amortizations EBIT
H1 2007
43.5 42.7 -44.2 -0.7 -1.7% -0.8 -1.5
H2 2006
40.9 41.7 -48.1 -7.3 -17.5% -0.4 -7.7
H1 2006
43.7 42.8 -42.7 1.0 2.3% -0.9 0.1
21
Interconnect costs down to 22.5% of service revenues (from 23..2%) Mainly costs of handsets in line with revenue increase Flat sales commissions although more postpaid activations (gross adds & migrations) Effect of outsourcing contract with Ericsson Universal Services charges No Discounted Stock Purchase Plan in 2007 Effect of outsourcing contract with Ericsson implemented in May 2007 (FTE from 1,661 EOY 06 to 1,521 end H1 07)
220.9
212.6
H1 2006
H1 2007
Interconnect & other sales costs Handsets/RT costs Non-headcount costs Headcount costs
22
CAPEX evolution
120 13.2% 100 12.6% 15.1% 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 80
0
9.4%
mio
58.3
96 4.0
8.1%
60 109 90 40 69
9.7
20
69
44.6
2.0%
0.0%
CAPEX/service revenues
23
% of service revenues
H1 2006
308.9 -69.2 -16.6 0.3 -0.6 0.3 -70.1 154.9 -152.2 2.7
%
-2.2% -15.8% N.A. N.A. N.A N.A. +1.6% 65.3% +87.1% N.A.
24
Balance Sheet
Mio Fixed Assets Current Assets Cash and Cash equivalents TOTAL ASSETS Net Equity Provisions/long-term liabilities Long Term Debt (*) Short Term Debt Current Liabilities TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES Net Debt / (Net Cash) H1 2007
804.6 229.2 57.3 1,091.1 628.9 15.3 0.0 21.3 425.6 1,091.1 -36.0
2006
827.9 221.9 68.0 1,117.8 763.8 14.0 0.0 2.4 337.6 1,117.8 -65.6
25
Outlook FY 2007
B. Moschni
26
Mobile service revenue growth in Belgium after regulatory impact (%/y) 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2004(a) -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 2005(a) 2006(e) 2007(e)
27
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
28
(k Euro)
Sales*
2004 6.9
2005 19.1
2006 27.7
Areas of cooperation -> Develop Be-Lux large account approach with cross-border offers -> Supply, interco and roaming optimization -> Refunding via Mobistar
% growth
EBITDA -7.6
177%
-6.1
45%
-0.8
Net Income*
-9.3
-9.3
-5.8
29
30
Thank you !