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SEC OCZ Notes From FBN
SEC OCZ Notes From FBN
July 7, 2011
Shebly Seyrafi, CFA / 212-618-2185 /
(OCZ: Nasdaq)
sseyrafi@fbnsecurities.com
Company Statistics
Price
Ticker Symbol
8.34
OCZ
Market
Nasdaq
52 wk High
$10.48
52 wk Low
$1.79
290
291
$
$
$
$
$
2012E
0.01
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.19
43.1x
$
$
$
$
$
2013E
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
0.55
15.1x
$
$
$
$
$
2012E
73.8
76.0
89.0
99.0
337.8
84.0%
0.9x
$
$
$
$
$
2013E
103.0
103.5
108.0
114.5
429.0
27.0%
0.7x
Q3 11
Nov-10
Q4 11
Feb-11
2011A
Q1 12A
May-11
6%
5%
2%
7%
5%
3%
Serv er SSD%
77%
77%
80%
78%
78%
85%
Enterprise SSD%
17%
18%
18%
15%
17%
12%
Although the (high-margin) enterprise SSD segment declined as a % of SSD units to 12%, the
company is on the cusp of strong growth in enterprise SSDs helped by new PCIe SSDs (e.g.
Z-Drive R4) and more enterprise customers (HPQ in late 2010, DELL last quarter).
F2012 guidance. OCZ increased its expectation for F2012 revenue from $300-330M to
$310-345M. It also increased its long-term GM target from 28-32% to 30-40%. It expects
long-term NG opex% to be 18-20% and long-term NG operating margin to be 15-20%. Over
the next year, it is plausible that enterprise SSDs grow from 12% of units in FQ1 (see Figure
1) to 25-30% of SSDs.
PCIe SSDs to spurt?. In light of the strong investor reception to FIOs IPO and to strong
growth expected in PCIe SSDs, investors wanted to hear more about OCZs PCIe SSD
business. Currently, the company is not disclosing its PCIe SSD% of SSD revenue. It does
acknowledge that GMs on these products are high (about 50%) and it has several PCIe SSD
products (Revo, VeloDrive, Z-Drive), with the Z-Drive R4 (shipping in volume in July)
recently announced at Computex with I/O and bandwidth metrics faster than the
competition. We believe that due to its strong product offering in this fast-growing segment
and due to its raised GM guidance, it is plausible that OCZ is baking in a meaningful increase
in its PCIe SSD mix going forward.
Blemishes. There were a few blemishes in the report: 1.) DSO grew 10 days Q/Q to 54 days
as A/R grew 40% Q/Q, 2.) inventory grew 52% Q/Q to $35M (and is expected to grow yet
again in FQ2/Aug.), and 3.) CFO was -$23M (due to the prior two factors), much worse than
the prior three quarters where CFO was -$5M to -$7M. Clearly OCZ is investing for growth,
and these kinds of balance sheet adjustments, while unsettling, are necessary to pave the
way.
INVESTMENT RISK
Risks include increased competition and aggressive pricing.
VALUATION METHODOLOGY
We value OCZ using a discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology.
Shebly Seyrafi, CFA (212-618-2185) sseyrafi@fbnsecurities.com
FBN Securities
Q1 11
May-10
Q2 11
Aug-10
Q3 11
Nov-10
Q4 11
Feb-11
2011A
Q1 12A Q2 12E
May-11 Aug-11
Q3 12E
Nov-11
Q4 12E
Feb-12
2012E
Q1 13E Q2 13E
May-12 Aug-12
Q3 13E
Nov-12
Q4 13E
Feb-13
2013E
34.6
29.5
54.7
64.7
183.5
73.8
76.0
89.0
99.0
337.8
103.0
103.5
108.0
114.5
429.0
Y/Y%
-3.2%
-21.9%
43.8%
99.9%
27.5%
113.2%
157.4%
62.7%
53.0%
84.0%
39.6%
36.2%
21.3%
15.7%
27.0%
Q/Q%
6.9%
-14.7%
85.3%
18.3%
14.0%
3.0%
17.1%
11.2%
4.0%
0.5%
4.3%
6.0%
Gross Margin $ - NG
Gross Margin % - NG (Target: 30-40%)
5.2
5.3
10.6
10.9
32.0
14.7
16.2
20.3
24.1
75.5
25.7
26.8
29.0
31.7
113.3
15.0%
18.0%
19.4%
16.8%
17.4%
20.0%
21.4%
22.8%
24.4%
22.3%
25.0%
25.9%
26.9%
27.7%
26.4%
~22%
~19%
NG GM ex -DRAM
S&M (GAAP)
Sales and marketing %
R&D (GAAP)
Research & Dev elopment %
2.7
3.6
4.8
4.1
15.3
4.5
4.6
5.4
6.0
20.6
6.3
6.2
6.4
6.6
25.5
7.9%
12.3%
8.7%
6.4%
8.3%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
6.0%
5.9%
5.8%
5.9%
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.5
7.7
4.3
4.4
4.9
5.3
18.9
5.5
5.4
5.6
6.0
22.4
4.5%
5.7%
3.5%
3.9%
4.2%
5.8%
5.8%
5.5%
5.4%
5.6%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
4.9
5.6
4.5
18.2
5.6
5.6
6.6
7.1
25.0
7.7
7.7
8.0
8.5
31.8
16.4%
10.2%
7.0%
9.9%
7.6%
7.4%
7.4%
7.2%
7.4%
7.5%
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
7.4%
7.6
10.2
12.2
11.2
41.2
14.4
14.7
16.9
18.5
64.5
19.5
19.3
20.0
21.1
79.8
-0.2
7.4
-2.9
7.3
-1.7
10.6
-0.4
10.7
-5.2
36.0
-0.7
13.7
-0.7
14.0
-0.7
16.2
-0.7
17.8
-2.8
61.7
-0.7
18.8
-0.7
18.6
-0.7
19.3
-0.7
20.4
-2.8
77.0
21.3%
24.8%
19.3%
16.6%
19.6%
18.6%
18.4%
18.2%
18.0%
18.3%
18.2%
17.9%
17.9%
17.8%
17.9%
-2.2
-2.0
0.1
0.1
-4.0
1.0
2.3
4.1
6.3
13.7
7.0
8.3
9.7
11.4
36.3
-6.4%
-6.7%
0.1%
0.2%
-2.2%
1.4%
3.0%
4.6%
6.4%
4.1%
6.8%
8.0%
9.0%
9.9%
8.5%
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-0.9
-2.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-2.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-2.1
-2.7
-2.5
-0.9
-0.8
-6.1
0.5
1.8
3.6
5.8
11.7
6.5
7.8
9.2
10.9
34.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.9
2.7
0.0%
0.0%
-2.9%
0.0%
-0.4%
0.0%
7.0%
8.0%
8.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
8.0%
-2.7
-2.5
-0.9
-0.8
-6.1
0.5
1.6
3.3
5.4
10.8
5.9
7.1
8.5
10.0
31.5
WA # Shares - FD (K)
25.2
26.6
28.6
34.8
28.8
48.2
56.0
56.2
56.4
54.2
56.6
56.8
57.0
57.2
56.9
Tax rate
Y/Y%
-43%
23%
-57%
Q/Q%
-46%
-15%
-66%
-53%
-29%
0.01
0.03
0.06
0.09
-110%
-132%
-288%
-529%
-147%
182%
101%
61%
0.19
-176%
0.11
0.13
0.15
0.17
910%
329%
152%
84%
11%
20%
18%
17%
0.55
186%
FBN Securities
Q1 11
May-10
Q2 11
Aug-10
Q3 11
Nov-10
Q4 11
Feb-11
2011A
Q1 12A Q2 12E
May-11 Aug-11
Q3 12E
Nov-11
Q4 12E
Feb-12
2012E
Q1 13E Q2 13E
May-12 Aug-12
Q3 13E
Nov-12
Q4 13E
Feb-13
2013E
Revenue ($M)
Consumer SSD
Serv er SSD
Entterprise SSD
0.8
1.0
0.8
4.1
6.7
2.1
2.0
3.0
5.0
12.1
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
27.0
10.3
15.5
33.2
45.4
104.4
58.8
59.0
65.0
65.0
247.8
67.0
67.0
70.0
75.0
279.0
2.3
3.6
7.5
8.7
22.1
8.3
10.0
16.0
24.0
58.3
25.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
103.0
SSD
13.3
20.2
41.5
58.2
133.2
69.1
71.0
84.0
94.0
318.1
98.0
98.5
103.0
109.5
409.0
Memory
15.0
12.6
6.3
2.0
35.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.9
5.3
5.5
4.4
21.1
4.7
5.0
5.0
5.0
19.7
5.0
5.0
5.0
5.0
20.0
34.3
38.0
53.2
64.6
190.1
73.8
76.0
89.0
99.0
337.8
103.0
103.5
108.0
114.5
429.0
0.3
-8.5
1.5
0.2
-6.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
34.6
29.5
54.7
64.7
183.5
73.8
76.0
89.0
99.0
337.8
103.0
103.5
108.0
114.5
429.0
PSU/Other
GAAP Revenue
NG Adj.
Total NG Revenue
Y/Y%
Consumer SSD
159%
98%
262%
23%
80%
189%
225%
133%
50%
124%
Serv er SSD
472%
280%
96%
43%
137%
14%
14%
8%
15%
13%
Entterprise SSD
266%
175%
114%
175%
164%
201%
150%
63%
13%
77%
SSD
418%
252%
103%
62%
139%
42%
39%
23%
16%
29%
Memory
-100%
-100%
-100%
-100%
-100%
PSU/Other
-21%
-5%
-9%
13%
-7%
7%
0%
0%
0%
2%
GAAP Revenue
115%
100%
67%
53%
78%
40%
36%
21%
16%
27%
113%
157%
63%
53%
84%
40%
36%
21%
16%
27%
NG Adj.
Total NG Revenue
Q/Q%
Consumer SSD
-54%
26%
-18%
391%
-49%
-4%
50%
67%
20%
8%
8%
7%
Serv er SSD
22%
51%
113%
37%
29%
0%
10%
0%
3%
0%
4%
7%
Entterprise SSD
17%
60%
105%
17%
-5%
21%
60%
50%
4%
0%
4%
4%
10%
51%
105%
40%
19%
3%
18%
12%
4%
1%
5%
6%
25%
-11%
5%
-20%
6%
7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
6%
11%
40%
21%
14%
3%
17%
11%
4%
0%
4%
6%
7%
-15%
85%
18%
14%
3%
17%
11%
4%
0%
4%
6%
SSD
Memory
PSU/Other
GAAP Revenue
NG Adj.
Total NG Revenue
FBN Securities
Q3 11
Nov-10
Q4 11
Feb-11
2011A
2012E
2013E
Gross Margin $
Consumer SSD
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.9
1.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.5
5.2
Serv er SSD
2.0
3.8
6.8
8.1
20.6
11.3
12.1
14.0
14.6
52.0
15.4
16.1
17.5
19.5
68.5
Entterprise SSD
0.7
1.1
2.2
2.6
6.6
2.5
3.1
5.1
7.9
18.6
8.5
8.8
9.4
10.0
36.6
SSD
2.7
5.0
9.1
11.2
28.0
14.1
15.5
19.6
23.4
72.5
25.0
26.1
28.3
31.0
110.3
Memory
1.5
1.3
0.5
-1.0
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
PSU/Other
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
3.0
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.8
3.0
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
3.0
5.1
7.0
10.3
10.9
33.3
14.8
16.2
20.3
24.1
75.5
25.7
26.8
29.0
31.7
113.3
NG Adj.
0.1
-1.7
0.3
0.0
-1.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
5.2
5.3
10.6
10.9
32.0
14.8
16.2
20.3
24.1
75.5
25.7
26.8
29.0
31.7
113.3
12.0%
12.0%
12.0%
12.0%
12.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
15.9%
18.0%
19.0%
20.0%
20.0%
19.3%
19.0%
24.2%
20.4%
17.9%
19.7%
19.2%
20.5%
21.5%
22.5%
21.0%
23.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
24.5%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
30.0%
31.0%
32.0%
33.0%
32.0%
34.0%
35.0%
36.0%
37.0%
35.5%
SSD
20.5%
24.6%
22.0%
19.3%
21.1%
20.3%
21.8%
23.3%
24.9%
22.8%
25.5%
26.5%
27.4%
28.3%
27.0%
Memory
10.0%
10.0%
8.0%
-53.0%
6.2%
PSU/Other
15.0%
15.0%
12.5%
15.0%
14.3%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
15.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
22.3%
25.0%
25.9%
26.9%
27.7%
GAAP GM%
NG Adj.
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
Total GM%
15.0%
18.0%
19.4%
16.8%
17.4%
20.0%
21.4%
22.8%
24.4%
26.4%
FBN Securities
Q 1 11
May-10
Q 2 11
Aug-10
Q 3 11
Nov-10
Assets
Cash & cash equivalents
Restricted cash
Accounts receivable, net
Inventories
Note receivable
Deferred tax asset
Prepaid expenses and other assets
Total Curre nt Asse ts
4.3
2.6
20.1
21.4
13.6
0.4
0.8
2.8
43.2
28.1
15.4
0.4
0.0
2.5
49.0
Total LT Asse ts
13.4
Total Asse ts
Liabilities & Equity
Total Curre nt Liabilitie s
Q 4 11
Feb-11
30.0
16.5
0.4
0.0
2.8
69.7
17.5
1.3
31.7
22.8
0.0
0.0
2.9
76.2
64.4
1.4
44.4
34.6
0.0
0.0
4.2
148.9
66.0
1.4
45.7
35.7
0.0
0.0
4.3
153.0
66.6
1.4
53.6
41.8
0.0
0.0
5.0
168.3
70.0
1.4
59.6
46.5
0.0
0.0
5.6
183.0
75.4
1.4
62.0
48.3
0.0
0.0
5.8
192.9
82.9
1.4
62.3
48.6
0.0
0.0
5.8
201.0
90.8
1.4
65.0
50.7
0.0
0.0
6.1
213.9
99.7
1.4
68.9
53.7
0.0
0.0
6.5
230.2
13.2
13.3
13.1
52.1
51.7
51.8
51.8
51.5
51.0
50.7
50.5
56.7
62.2
83.0
89.3
201.0
204.7
220.1
234.8
244.4
252.0
264.7
280.7
40.2
55.4
60.3
66.8
56.9
58.6
68.5
76.1
79.1
79.5
82.9
87.8
3.0
3.0
0.5
0.5
3.3
3.3
9.4
9.4
12.5
12.5
12.9
12.9
15.1
15.1
16.8
16.8
17.5
17.5
17.6
17.6
18.3
18.3
19.4
19.4
Total Liabilitie s
43.1
56.0
63.7
76.2
69.5
71.5
83.6
92.9
96.6
97.0
101.2
107.3
Shareholder's Equity
13.5
6.2
19.3
13.1
131.6
133.2
136.5
141.9
147.8
155.0
163.4
173.4
56.7
62.2
83.0
89.3
201.0
204.7
220.1
234.8
244.4
252.0
264.7
280.7
92.2
1.62
1
91.2
1.60
2.87
54
4%
0.0
2.6
0.6%
$ 101.0
$ 1.77
$
1
$ 100.1
$ 1.75
$ 3.03
54
6%
0.0
2.6
0.5%
METRICS
Cash + ST Inv.
Cash + ST Inv. per share
Debt
Net Cash
Net Cash/Share
Book value per share
DSO
Q/Q % Ch. In A/R
Inventory turns
Current ratio
Debt/Capital
$
$
$
$
$
$
4.3
0.17
11
(6.4)
(0.25)
0.54
56
5%
8.9
1.1
44.1%
$
$
$
$
$
$
2.6
0.10
13
(10.7)
(0.40)
0.23
86
32%
9.5
0.9
68.3%
$
$
$
$
$
$
20.1
0.70
15
4.7
0.16
0.68
49
7%
11.1
1.2
44.4%
$
$
$
$
$
$
18.8
0.54
20
(1.2)
(0.03)
0.38
44
6%
9.4
1.1
60.5%
$
$
$
$
$
$
65.7
1.36
1
64.8
1.34
2.73
54
40%
0.0
2.6
0.7%
$
$
$
$
$
$
67.3
1.20
1
66.4
1.19
2.38
54
3%
0.0
2.6
0.7%
$
$
$
$
$
$
67.9
1.21
1
67.0
1.19
2.43
54
17%
0.0
2.5
0.7%
$
$
$
$
$
$
71.3
1.26
1
70.4
1.25
2.52
54
11%
0.0
2.4
0.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
76.8
1.36
1
75.9
1.34
2.61
54
4%
0.0
2.4
0.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
84.3
1.48
1
83.4
1.47
2.73
54
0%
0.0
2.5
0.6%
$
$
$
$
$
$
FBN Securities
Disclosure Section
Regulation AC, Analyst Certification
I, Shebly Seyrafi, certify that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect my personal views
about
the subject securities or issuers.
No part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations
or views I have expressed in the research report.
Ownership and material conflicts of interest
To the best of my knowledge, FBN Securities has no beneficial ownership in any of the recommended
securities
and does not hold 1% or more of the subject companys securities.
At the time of this writing, neither the analyst nor his household members own the stock in subject of this
report or related companies. But the analyst reserves the right to purchase the stock in the future subject to
the policies and procedures of FBN Securities personal trading policy.
FBN Securities conducts no investment banking. It has not received compensation for investment banking
activity or from any activity to the best of my knowledge, from any company mentioned in this report within
the twelve months preceding publication. FBN Securities does not expect to receive or seek compensation for
investment banking activity in the three months following publication.
FBN Securities does not compensate its research personnel for investment banking services.
FBN Securities makes no market in any recommended securities.
Neither the analyst nor any member of the analysts household is an officer, director or advisory board
member of any company mentioned in this report.
***DISCLAIMERS***
This publication is provided to you for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for
the
purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has been obtained from
sources
believed reliable but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions or
estimates
contained in this report represent the judgment of the analyst at this time, and are subject to change without
notice.
The investments discussed or recommended in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must
make
their own investment based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such
independent
advisers, as they believe necessary. Additional information is available upon request. Past performance should
not be
taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice
and FBN
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FBN Securities
Stock Ratings
FBN uses a relative rating system using terms Outperform, Sector Perform, and Underperform. FBN does not
assign
ratings of buy, hold, or sell to the stocks covered.
Outperform (O) The stocks total return is expected to exceed the average return for the analysts sector
coverage
universe over the next 6 to 12month period.
Sector Perform (SP) The stocks total return is expected to be inline with the average return for the analysts
sector
coverage universe over the next 6 to 12month period.
Underperform (U) The stocks total return is expected to be below the average return for the analysts sector
coverage
universe over the next 6 to 12month period.
Institutional Sales:
Gregory Naso, CFA
120 Broadway, Suite 1034
New York, NY 10271
212-618-2193
gnaso@fbnsecurities.com
Trading:
Michael Naso
120 Broadway, Suite 1034
New York, NY 10271
212-566-2216
mnaso@fbnsecurities.com
%
38%
63%
0%
100%
FBN Securities