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Long Arithmetic Progressions in The Primes Australian Mathematical Society Meeting 26 September 2006
Long Arithmetic Progressions in The Primes Australian Mathematical Society Meeting 26 September 2006
N
2
dx
log x
) Anothcr way ot thinkin aout
it i- that a numcr randomy -ccctcd trom 1 to N
wi havc a jroaiity ajjroximatcy 1/ o N ot c-
in jrimc |Lxacty what ajjroximatcy mcan- i-
a ood quc-tion - co-cy conncctcd to thc tamou-
Riemann hypothesis - ut wc wont di-cu-- it
hcrc|
8
Thi- arcady ivc- u- a crudc hcuri-tic tor countin
jattcrn- in jrimc- Sujjo-c tor in-tancc onc want- to
jrovc thc twin jrimc con,ccturc Onc coud aruc a-
toow-
(1) lick a numcr n randomy trom 1 to N
(2) Thc jrimc numcr thcorcm -how- that thc jroai-
ity that n i- jrimc i- rouhy 1/ o N
(3) Thc jrimc numcr thcorcm a-o -how- that thc jro-
aiity that n + 2 i- jrimc i- a-o rouhy 1/ o N
(!) A--umin that thc cvcnt- in (2) and (3) arc ajjroxi-
matcy indcjcndcnt, thc jroaiity that n, n+2 arc
oth jrimc -houd c 1/ o
2
N
(`) ln othcr word-, thc numcr ot twin jrimc- trom 1 to
N -houd c rouhy N/ o
2
N
(o) Sincc N/ o
2
N oc- to innity a- N , thcrc
arc innitcy many twin jrimc-
9
ntortunatcy, thc aovc arumcnt i- incorrcct Onc
ca-y way to -cc thi- i- that thc cxact -amc arumcnt
woud -how that thcrc arc a-o innitcy many jair-
ot ad,accnt jrimc- n, n + 1, which i- ccary ta-c'
Thc jrocm i- that thc a--umjtion ot indcjcndcncc
i- too naivc - onc i- a-icay hojin that thc jrimc-
trom 1 to N arc di-triutcd in an uttcry random (or
morc jrcci-cy, a j-cudorandom) ta-hion, with thcrc
cin no corrcation ctwccn thc jrimaity ot n and
thc jrimaity ot (-ay) n+2 Lut thi- i- not thc ca-c,
ccau-c ot a vcry -imjc o-crvation
Odd numcr- arc much morc ikcy to c jrimc than
cvcn numcr-
lntuitivcy, thi- mcan- that it n i- jrimc, thcn n i-
mo-t ikcy odd, and -o n+2 i- odd a-o Thi- -houd
-inicanty incrca-c thc jroaiity that n + 2 i-
jrimc - -o thc two cvcnt- arc not indcjcndcnt (Con-
vcr-cy, it dramaticay dccrca-c- thc jroaiity that
n + 1 i- jrimc)
\hic thi- invaidatc- our caricr inc ot rca-onin, it
i- not hard to modity that arumcnt to accomodatc
thi- ncw o-crvation aout thc jrimc- Thc idca i- to
u-c conditiona jroaiity and indcjcndcncc rathcr
10
than a-outc jroaiity and indcjcndcncc Irom
thc jrimc numcr thcorcm, and thc tact that amo-t
a jrimc- arc odd, wc havc
(a) lt n i- a random cvcn numcr trom 1 to N, thcn thc
jroaiity that n i- jrimc i- nciic
() lt n i- a random odd numcr trom 1 to N, thcn thc
jroaiity that n i- jrimc i- rouhy 2/ o N
11
`ow wc havc a rcvi-cd count tor twin jrimc-
(1) lick a numcr n randomy trom 1 to N Ajjrox-
imatcy 1/2 ot thc timc n wi c cvcn. 1/2 ot thc
timc n i- odd
(23!a) lt n i- cvcn, thcn n and n + 2 havc ony a nciic
chancc ot cin jrimc, -o thc jroaiity that n, n+2
arc oth jrimc -houd a-o c nciic (in tact it i-
zcro)
(23!) lt n i- odd, thcn n and n+2 cach havc a jroaiity
ot aout 2/ o N ot cin jrimc, -o (a--umin con-
ditiona indcjcndcncc) thc jroaiity that n, n+2
arc oth jrimc in thi- ca-c -houd c aout !/ o
2
N
(`) luttin thi- a tocthcr (u-in Layc- tormua), thc
numcr ot twin jrimc- trom 1 to N -houd c rouhy
N |
1
2
0 +
1
2
!
o
2
N
| 2
N
o
2
N
.
(o) Thi- -ti oc- to innity a- N , -o thcrc -houd
-ti c innitcy many twin jrimc-
12
Ot cour-c, thi- arumcnt i- a-o incorrcct (thouh it i-
c-- incorrcct than thc jrcviou- onc) Ior in-tancc,
it woud jrcdict innitcy many jrimc trijc- ot thc
torm n, n + 2, n + ! Thc rca-on i- that wc arc not
incorjoratin -omc additiona -tructura tact- aout
thc jrimc-, in thi- ca-c
`umcr- cqua to 1 or 2 (mod 3) arc much morc
ikcy to c jrimc than numcr- cqua to 0(mod 3)
ln tact, wc havc a morc jrcci-c -tatcmcnt (Lirichct
1S3, Sicc-\a-z, 19o3)
(a) lt n i- a random numcr trom 1 to N with n
0(mod 2) or n 0(mod 3), thcn n ha- a nciic
jroaiity ot cin jrimc
() lt n i- a random numcr trom 1 to N with n
1(mod 2) and n 1(mod 3), thcn n ha- jroaiity
rouhy 3/ o N ot cin jrimc
(c) lt n i- a random numcr trom 1 to N with n
1(mod 2) and n 2(mod 3), thcn n ha- jroaiity
rouhy 3/ o N ot cin jrimc
-in thi- ncw intormation, wc can rcvi-c our count
ot twin jrimc- trom 2
N
log
2
N
to
3
2
N
log
2
N
13
Ot cour-c, wc can continuc ad,u-tin thi- count u--
in mod ` intormation, mod intormation, ctc and
otain thc toowin -cqucncc ot hcuri-tic-
lntormation u-cd lrcdictcd ] twin-
lrimc numcr thcorcm
N
log
2
N
] jrimc- mod 2 2
N
log
2
N
] jrimc- mod 2, 3 1.`
N
log
2
N
] jrimc- mod 2, 3, ` 1.!1
N
log
2
N
] jrimc- mod 2, 3, `, 1.3
N
log
2
N
] jrimc- mod 2, 3, . . . , 9 1.32
N
log
2
N
Onc quicky o-crvc- that cach ncw moduu- i- cau--
in c-- and c-- ot an ad,u-tmcnt, and thc jrcdiction
tor thc numcr ot twin jrimc- c-- than N in tact
convcrc- to 2
2
N
log
2
N
, whcrc
2
i- thc twin jrimc
con-tant
p odd jrimc
(1
1
(p 1)
2
) 0.oo01o1S`S . . . .
(Tcchnica joint) Actuay 2
2
N
2
dx
log
2
x
i- a -ihty
cttcr jrcdiction, a- it u-c- thc additiona tact that
-ma numcr- arc a it morc ikcy to c jrimc than
arc numcr- Lut thi- i- a rcativcy minor corrcc-
tion
14
Thi- jrcdiction i- -urjri-iny ood
N 2
2
N
log
2
N
2
2
N
2
dx
log
2
x
Actua ] twin- N
10
6
o91 S2!S S1oS
10
8
3S910 !!03oS !!0312
10
10
2!902S! 2!11!1 2!12o9
10
12
1.293o 10
9
1.S0o1 10
9
1.S0`9 10
9
Our hcuri-tic anay-i- hinc- on thc jrc-umjtion that,
ajart trom thc oviou- -tructurc in thc jrimc- (that thc
jrimc- arc mo-ty odd, mo-ty cojrimc to thrcc, ctc),
that thc jrimc- chavc a- it thcy wcrc randomy di--
triutcd. in othcr word-, thcrc i- no additiona -ccrct
or cxotic -tructurc in thc jrimc- that woud -ini-
canty acct -uch count- a- thc numcr ot twin jrimc-
c-- than N
Thcrc i- a way to makc thi- jrc-umjtion riorou-. thi-
i- known a- thc Hardy-Littlewood prime tuples
conjecture Thi- vcry -tron con,ccturc woud aow
u- to count virtuay any tyjc ot arithmctic jattcrn in
thc jrimc-, -cttin many ojcn quc-tion-. ut wc havc
no way ot attackin thi- con,ccturc with currcnt tcchno-
oy (Low coud onc di-jrovc a con-jiracy amon thc
jrimc-)
15
Amo-t jrimc-
\hic wc cannot -cttc many quc-tion- aout thc
jrimc-, wc havc a much cttcr undcr-tandin ot thc
amo-t jrimc- - numcr- which arc thc jroduct ot
ony a -ma numcr ot jrimc- louhy -jcakin,
thc anaouc ot thc Lardy-Littcwood jrimc tujc-
con,ccturc i- known tor amo-t jrimc- (thi- tact i-
known a- thc fundamental lemma of sieve the-
ory)
To cxjain why amo-t jrimc- arc ca-icr to contro
than cnuinc jrimc-, ct u- rcca thc ca--ica -icvc ot
Lrato-thcnc- Thi- -icvc ct- u- ocatc a thc jrimc-
ctwccn, -ay, N/2 and N tor -omc arc numcr N,
y thc toowin jroccdurc
(0) Start with a thc numcr- trom N/2 to N
(2) Liminatc (or -icvc out) a mutijc- ot 2
(3) Liminatc a mutijc- ot 3
(`) Liminatc a mutijc- ot ` . . .
(
N arc -icvcd
out, onc i- ctt with thc jrimc- trom N/2 to N
16
Onc can think ot thi- -icvc a- -cujtin thc jrimc-
out ot a i ock (thc intccr- trom N/2 to N) At
thc cinnin ot thc jrocc--, onc rcmovc- vcry arc
and -mooth jiccc- trom thi- ock (thc mutijc-
ot 2, mutijc- ot 3, ctc), and it i- ca-y to -cc what i-
oin on Ior in-tancc, wc initiay havc rouhy
N
2
ccmcnt-. attcr rcmovin thc cvcn numcr- wc -houd
havc rouhy
1
2
N
2
ccmcnt-. attcr thcn rcmovin thc
mutijc- ot 3 wc -houd havc rouhy
2
3
1
2
N
2
ccmcnt-
(y thc Chinese remainder theorem) and -o
torth lt i- a-o ca-y to count thc numcr ot twin-,
arithmctic jrorc--ion-, ctc at thc vcry cary -tac-
ot thi- jrocc--
Lowcvcr, at atcr -tac- ot thc -icvc (c at thc -tcj-
ctwccn
N/2 and
d|n
(d) o n tor a n 1, 2, 3, . . .
(thi- i- a-icay thc tundamcnta thcorcm ot arith-
mctic in di-ui-c)
To nd jrorc--ion- ot cnth k in thc jrimc-, onc i-
a-icay cd to try to otain owcr ound- tor avcr-
ac- -uch a-
1
N
2
N
n=1
N
r=1
(n)(n + r) . . . (n + (k 1)r).
ln contra-t, Szcmcrcdi- thcorcm aow- u- to owcr-
ound quantitic- -uch a-
1
N
2
N
n=1
N
r=1
f(n)f(n + r) . . . f(n + (k 1)r)
21
ut ony whcn f i- oundcd, non-ncativc, and ha-
arc mcan i- non-ncativc with arc mcan, ut
i- untortunatcy not oundcd
Lowcvcr, u-in a -tructurc thcorcm (motivatcd y
arumcnt- in crodic thcory and cominatoric-) onc
can -jit into a -tructurcd comjoncnt
U
, and a
j-cudorandom comjoncnt
U
(thc dcnition ot thc-c
tcrm- wa- motivatcd y arumcnt- in Iouricr ana-
y-i-) Thc j-cudorandom comjoncnt
U
turn- out
to c nciic (motivatcd y arumcnt- in hyjcr-
rajh thcory) Thc ta-k i- thcn to undcr-tand thc
-tructurcd comjoncnt
U