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2011 11 07 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
2011 11 07 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
07 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
STRATEGY/ POSITION Sell Stop 3 Buy limit 3 LONG 3 SHORT 3 Buy Stop 3 SHORT 2 Buy limit 3 Sell stop 3
ENTRY LEVEL 1.3655 1.5840 78.20 0.9015 1.0250 1.0570 122.70 106.45
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS
STOP
1.3520/1.3140/1.2860 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 80.05/82.00/83.30 (Entered 01/11/2011) 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250 (Entered 07/11/2011) 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 124.10/126.00/127.32 105.45/104.00/100.76 Look to sell.
Sell stop 3
1.2130
1.2230
SHORT 3
34.1300
35.6880
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01
EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which has been driven by recent positive EU News. Key support is now holding at 1.3653 (18
th
200-DMA (1.4104)
confirmation beneath here will unlock further downside scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level at 1.3000. Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro
UPTREND (2 YEARS)
currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.
Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80. Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR
BREAKOUT ZONE
VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. MIG Bank US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
TRIGGER (15000)
DEMARK BUY SIGNALS
13
COT LIQUIDITY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell Stop 3: 1.3655, Objs:1.3520/1.3140/1.2860, Stop: 1.3840
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
GBP/USD
Support expected close to 1.5853.
A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy below from the report. GBP/USD continues to consolidate in what is currently viewed as a larger corrective phase with scope for further swing lower to test the 1.5853 region, where a higher low is favoured to form for a fresh swing back towards 1.6167. We remain wary of the general range bound nature of this market in the medium-term but note that short-term structure is suggestive of further gains, back towards 1.6167. While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative again. The view still remains that the large devaluation of GBP versus the USD has already taken place, thus GBP/USD is unlikley to participate fully in any further USD strengthening that may take place. Instead GBP/USD is favoured to remain stronger than most.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)
third time to officially intervene in the rate this year, after it carved out yet another new post WWII record low at 75.35. Multiple DeMark buy signals were also triggered within the multi-week base pattern which has now broken higher (as had been expected by our low
82.00
volatility measures). The medium/long-term view is more bullish, favouring a sustained move above our initial upside trigger level at 80.00, near 80.24 (post BOJ intervention II high).
80.24
Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term
USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)
PIR II
technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. Only a sustained weekly close below 76.25 will lead to a reassessment of the view and extend temporary weakness into 74.55.
Please select the link below to review our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY. This is a featured update to our previous Special Report USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change - What do long-term cycles tell us about the future of USD-JPY? - How do event shocks and Central Bank Interventions impact the market? - Safe-Haven Flows: A wave of change. - High-Probability Trading Strategies.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
LONG 3 at 78.20, Objs: 80.05/82.00/83.30, Stop: 77.70
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
USD/CHF
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Short 3 at 0.9015, Objs: 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250, Stop: 0.9130.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)
200-DMA (0.9817)
1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone). Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9817 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low). A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger
st
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month
CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN
trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern. CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
50%
(1.3570)
61.8% 50% 200-DMA (1.3841)
(1.3379)
(1.1488)
61.8%
(1.0893)
200-DMA (1.1314)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Buy Stop 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS
38.2%
(0.9144)
50%
A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend. The bears need to confirm beneath 1.0322 (26 Oct low) and 1.0188 (18 Oct low). A break here will unlock sharp setbacks into 1.0000. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.
th th
(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0415)
61.8%
The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now
13
trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11. Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18 Oct low). A break here will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk appetite.
th
(76.70)
50%
200DMA (83.12)
(72.58)
61.8%
(68.47)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
GBP/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
EUR/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell stop 3 at 106.45, Objs: 105.45/104.00/100.76, Stop: 107.50
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
EUR/GBP
immediately target the 0.8530/31 double bottom that we have discussed in recent reports. A sustained break under 0.8530 will weaken the longer-term outlook considerably, ending the general range bound trade that we have witnessed thus far. Scope would then be seen for a return back down to 0.8068, over time. In fact, should stresses in the Euro Zone intensify then it is possible that Sterling may gain safe haven status, with scope then for a return to 0.8068 over coming weeks. Failure to break the floor of the medium-term range will warn of a return back towards 0.8831 where short positioning would become attractive EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP again. A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a generally rangebound environment.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Look to sell if a break under 0.8530 can be realised.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
EUR/CHF
maintained over the coming days, the pressures in the Euro zone are likely to intensify considerably, as it will be viewed that the ECB is essentially powerless to contain the upside pressure on Italian government bond yields. This is likely to lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level. EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the 1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week
moving average is also noted. Time will tell whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian government bonds.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
20% SO FAR
$1760 $1704
also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling. Most concerning is that speculative (net long) flows have recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold
$1600
34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!
positions. In price terms, Golds latest 20% bearish slide is still worth less than the largest average drawdown measured since the start of the yellow metals long-term bull market in 1999.
26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years! A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze
lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:
I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
VIDEO
II
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL
13
II
has now wiped out almost 50% of silvers prior gains (taken from Silvers alltime high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.
(32.3135)
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-
(26.9150)
61.8%
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
OVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
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DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
www.migbank.com
14
CONTACT