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2011 11 15 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
2011 11 15 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
2011 11 15 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
15 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS
STOP
1.3650
All three objectives at 0.9300 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 (Entered on 10/11/2011) 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 124.10/126.00/127.32 (Entered on 14/11/11) Look to see how 104.00 fares.
0.8555 1.2130
0.8655 1.2230
SHORT 3
34.1300
35.6880
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01
EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE FAILED
BREAKOUTS
The bearish move is now being further anchored down by heightened European soverign debt risk after Italian Govt. yields launched above 7%. The recent break under 1.3653 (18
th
200-DMA (1.4104)
scope into 1.3146 (Oct swing low) and psychological level at 1.3000. Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now
UPTREND (2 YEARS)
falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs. Inversely, the USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-
day MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 9-month highs near 80. Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR
VIDEO
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.
BREAKOUT ZONE
TRIGGER (15000)
DEMARK BUY SIGNALS
13
COT LIQUIDITY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Sell stop 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3650
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
GBP/USD
remains positive due to the near-term bullish structure that is in place. While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negative again. Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should the US Dollar enter into a strengthening phase.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)
a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom.
82.00
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
80.24
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal. The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30. Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark exhaustion signals, within the ending diagonal pattern, launhcing a powerful recovery into 91.00.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change
PIR II
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
USD/CHF
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 0.9110, Objs: All three objs at 0.9300, Stop at 0.9050.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily)
August High (1.0673)
200-DMA (0.9823)
potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at 1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone). A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.
Only a sustained close beneath parity will unlock bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9825 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low).
st
CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN
EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern. CHF/CAD has broken through support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1322, following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
50%
(1.3570)
61.8% 50% 200-DMA (1.3841)
(1.3379)
(1.1488)
61.8%
(1.0893)
200-DMA (1.1314)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Long 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS
the 200-day MA (1.0418). A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE
38.2%
(0.9144)
50%
rates multi-year uptrend. Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar. The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100. The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.98. Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18 Oct low). A break here
th
(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0418) 61.8%
will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk
13
appetite.
(76.70)
50%
200DMA (83.12)
(72.58)
61.8%
(68.47)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
GBP/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Long 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
EUR/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Look to see how the 104.00 region fares.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
EUR/GBP
support now favours a return to weakness. Such a move will be assisted by the perception of Sterling as a safe haven, assuming the yields of 10 year Italian and Spanish government bonds can stay above 6.00%. Also noted is a possible channel in the hourly timeframe, with scope now for a return to the support of this channel, currently near 0.8450. In the nearterm, a break back over 0.8652 is required to neutralise the outlook once again. In the meantime, a lower high is sought for a further extension lower. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Failure to hold under the old double bottom and trend-line will warn of a false break lower, with a danger that trade returns back into the old range. In the meantime, scope is seen for a near-term return to 0.8486 and then lower.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Short 3 at 0.8555, Objs: 0.8455/0.8285/0.8068, Stop: 0.8655
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
EUR/CHF
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
20% SO FAR
$1760 $1704
$1600
34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!
1844. Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not been breached in 3 years! A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still
26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600 Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box
(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)
VIDEO
II
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL
13
II
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.
(32.3135)
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-
term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated
(26.9150)
61.8%
higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
OVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
LEGAL TERMS
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
www.migbank.com
14
CONTACT