DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA

S-TERM
MULTI-DAY

L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/ POSITION SHORT 3

ENTRY LEVEL 1.3480

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS

STOP

1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) Await fresh signal. Await New Buy Trade Setup. Await fresh signal. Exited at 1.0350. Achieved 2 Objectives. Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup. Await fresh signal. Await fresh signal. Awaiting Fresh Signal.

1.3480

USD/CAD AUD/USD GBP/JPY EUR/JPY EUR/GBP

Bijoy Kar, CFA

EUR/CHF GOLD SILVER

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

Sell stop 3 SHORT 3 SHORT 3

1.2130 1680 34.1300

1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1595/1450/1300 (Entered 23/11/2011) 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011)

1.2230 1740 35.6880

DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01

EUR/USD EUR/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

EUR/USD (Daily)

BERMUDA TRIANGLE

Temporary unwinding from oversold conditions.

FAILED
BREAKOUTS

Lowered

stop

to

breakeven,

thereby

ensuring

risk-free

trade.

EUR/USD is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, it is still likely to see the bearish impulsive move is extend from key overhead
BREAKOUT ZONE (1.4000)

resistance (primarily a 2 year trend and its long-term 200-day average). Bearish sentiment also remains anchored by heightened contagion fears driven from the greater European sovereign debt risk. A sustained close beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low).

200-DMA (1.4098)

1.3000 (PSYCHOLOGICAL) 1.2870 (2011 MAJOR LOW)

UPTREND (2 YEARS)

Keep an eye on highly correlated risk-related proxies, such as the S&P500 and AUD/USD, which both continue to exhibit downside presssures.

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD INDEX
200-DMA (75.74)
9 MONTH HIGH
EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9% CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

Inversely, the USD Index is extending its recovery higher and is fast approaching the recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%). Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR

USD INDEX (4 YEARS)

extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report: EUR/USD A Fall From Grace ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410.

BREAKOUT ZONE
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

DEMARK BUY SIGNALS

1 3

KEY SUPPORT (73.50-73.00)

TRIGGER (15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3480

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2

GBP/USD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

Contained within an hourly channel for now.

GBP/USD continues to edge lower remaining within the confines of a falling channel. A break back over 1.5566 will warn of a larger recovery phase. In the meantime, scope is seen for a continuation of weakness. It is preferred to wait for a break lower, under the support of the falling channel, before we attempt to capitalise on a possible recovery. Should any such weakness fail to gain momentum, we will then look to buy into a recovery. This scenario is also supported by the generally rangebound nature of the market in the medium-term timeframe, favouring a return to 1.6167. A sustained break under 1.5272 is required to turn the medium-term bias decidedly bearish. GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP We await the formation of short-term structure to assist us in our formulation of strategy.

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3

USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

POST INTERVENTION RETRACEMENT (PIR I)

Minor rebound, but downside risks remain.

USD/JPY is experiencing a minor rebound. However, downside risks remain, with the growing probability of another price retracement back to

QUAKE SHOCK! 83.30

POST G7 MOVE (I) HIGH

pre-intervention levels (PIR) and potentially even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Furthermore, sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market
82.00

continues to try and be the first to call the market bottom. This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,

POST BOJ MOVE (II) HIGH

80.24

which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal. The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

USD/JPY Weekly (2007 2011)

ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN ANTICIPATE SBREAKOUT (85-79)

PIR II

POST BOJ MOVE (III) HIGH

PIR III

points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change
MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

Media Reports: CNBC Bloomberg

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4

USD/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

Break over 0.9316 strengthens medium-term outlook.

USD/CHF saw a break back over 0.9316 last week. This structural break over the October high strengthens the medium term structure. However, scope is seen for a corrective phase lower, with resistance anticipated close to 0.9600, should further strength follow. As mentioned last week, demand for Swiss Francs is likely to continue while yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds remain elevated, currently trading at 6.667% and 7.111% respectively. On the left we show the German sovereign yield curve (solid line), compared with the same yield curve one week ago. This shows a

deterioration in the way in which the core Euro-Zone bond market is perceived by the market as a whole. If yields in Germany continue to rise USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP this will likely mark an acceleration of deterioration in the Euro Zone. A break under hourly channel support, currently at 0.9205 not weakens the near-term outlook. lower. Under 0.9085 will warn of a larger corrective phase

German yield curve comparison, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5

USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily) USD/CAD

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

Sharp Setbacks.
Exited at 1.0350, having achieved 2 price objectives on long position. USD/CAD has triggered a sharp setback, following last weeks strong bull charge. A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the
CONFIRMATION ABOVE 1.0680 OPENS LARGER RECOVERY

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. Only a sustained close beneath 1.0230 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks

DEMARK BUY SIGNAL

into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9844 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low). EUR/CAD is still holding above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-month trading range. key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

st

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

MAJOR RESISTANCE

CHF/CAD (Daily)
REVERSAL PATTERN

CHF/CAD is now retesting its 200-day MA at 1.1363, while maintaining a multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide lower (which was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.

50%

(1.3570)
61.8% 50%

(1.3379)

(1.1488)
61.8%

(1.0893)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Exited at 1.0350. Achieved 2 Objectives.

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6

AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

AUD/USD
(Weekly)

Unwinding from oversold conditions.

AUD/USD is still attempting to unwind from oversold conditions, following its accelerated decline through the 1.0000 psychological level.
STRUCTURAL LEVEL

The move must be sustained below 1.0000 to further compound downside pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE

38.2%

(0.9144)
50%

(0.8546)
61.8%

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon. The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 82.67. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further unwinding of risk appetite.

(0.7947) KEY ZONE

AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD (Daily) AUD/JPY (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

13

REVERING INTO 200-DMA 38.2%

(76.70)
50%

(72.58)
61.8%

200DMA (82.76)

(68.47)

RESUMPTION OF BREAKDOWN ADDS TO RISK AVERSION

KEY SUPPORT 1.2319 / 1.2100

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Sell Trade Setup.

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7

GBP/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

Break out of hourly bear channel, suggests a corrective phase.

GBP/JPY may be entering a corrective phase higher following the break out of hourly bear channel resistance. With this in mind, a higher low is anticipated ahead of 119.38, should a short-term pullback take place. This is also supported by the minor recovery seen in equities globally and in particular in the S&P500. However, while under the hourly high at 121.77 the near-term negative structure is maintained. Although a recovery phase is now favoured, further signs of continued strength are sought ahead of strategy formulation.

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8

EUR/JPY

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

Enters into a near-term corrective phase.

EUR/JPY continues to grind lower after failing to hold the extension higher that occurred at the end of October. In fact the fall that has taken place since 111.60 has the appearance of a corrective phase, suggesting scope for a further leg higher. The break out of the hourly falling channel that has taken place during the most recent session is now suggestive of a larger corrective phase higher. However, the EUR component of this pair is highly affected by the movement in EUR/USD. As the yields in Spanish and Italian government bonds continue to rise, this puts more downside pressure on the EUR. A break under 1.3146 in the EUR/USD will end the rising phase seen since 2010. This would likely be associated with a fall back down to 100.76 and EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP potentially lower. A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the mediumterm outlook more bullish.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9

EUR/GBP
Bias remains bearish.

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

EUR/GBP continues to frustrate, failing to garner any momentum following the recent break of the key 0.8530/31 lows. Given the precarious situation in the Euro-Zone, our mild bearish bias remains, favouring an eventual return to weakness if German sovereign debt continues to be sold off. It is anticipated that if the deterioration in the Euro-Zone continues then Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven. Thus focus remains on the Italian and Spanish government bond markets too. An eventual fall back under 0.8486 is anticipated. With this in mind, the formulation of a short strategy is still favoured, although a deeper pullback of the 0.8831-0.8486 fall is required ahead of entry. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200 day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of

confidence in the EUR.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
Look to sell higher.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10

EUR/CHF

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

Range bound between 1.2131 and 1.2474. Breakout sought.

EUR/CHF is maintaining its tight trading range just under the 1.2500 level. It is anticipated that this zone may see a degree of resistance, particularly in light of the movement in periphery yield spreads versus bunds. Over time, this may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF. We would prefer to trade this from a momentum perspective, awaiting a return to the 1.2000 region. Should a re-test of the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the probability of a return to this level. Short-term structure continues to be suggestive of a further rise back EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP towards the 1.2500 zone, where further resistance would be expected. It remains to be seen if the SNB will be able to hold back the possible flow of funds into Swiss Francs, that may occur, if further stresses lead to yet higher yields in Italian/Spanish/French government bonds.

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11

GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

RISK ZONE III

DOUBLE TOP

Remains negative beneath 1800.

Short-term price activity remains negative beneath resistance at 1800. The bearish move is starting to be anchored once again by Golds last dramatic 20% capitulation. There is heightened risk for a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

DEMARK SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLDS OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS

20% SO FAR

$1760 $1704

close beneath $1600/98 and $1530 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not
$1600

been breached in 3 years!

34%
$1532
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!

Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this

26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)

benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage: Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600

VIDEO

COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS

Bloomberg Countdown

CNBC Squawk Box

MIG Bank Gold Webinar video

(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)

I
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

II

S-T TREND

L-T TREND

STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12

SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

13

Key support at $30.0000.

Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and the previous swing low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

200 DMA (36.5125)

II

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest.

KEY SUPPORT (26.0700)

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

38.2%

(32.3135)

multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers long-

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

50%

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated

(26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165) 13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROM OVERSOLD TERRITORY

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.

OVER

30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

BULL MARKET FROM 1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13

LEGAL TERMS

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.

www.migbank.com

14

CONTACT

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

28 November, 2011

Howard Friend www.migbank.com Chief Market Strategist h.friend@migbank.com

Ron William Technical Strategist r.william@migbank.com

Bjioy Kar Technical Strategist b.kar@migbank.com

MIG BANK info@migbank.com www.migbank.com

14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Tel.+41 32 722 81 00 15