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2011 11 29 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
2011 11 29 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
2011 11 29 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report
29 November, 2011
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
MA RK ET
EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
S-TERM
MULTI-DAY
L-TERM
MULTI-WEEK
OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS
STOP
1.3140/1.3000/1.2860 (Entered 16/11/2011) Await fresh signal. Await New Buy Trade Setup. Await fresh signal. Awaiting New Buy Trade Setup. Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.
1.3480
Buy limit 3
120.25
119.30
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports. CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes dOr Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01
EUR/USD EUR/USD
EUR/USD (Daily)
BERMUDA TRIANGLE
EUR/USD is temporarily unwinding from oversold conditions. However, it is still likely to see the bearish impulsive move extend from key overhead resistance (primarily a 2 year trend and its long-term 200-day average). Bearish sentiment also remains anchored by heightened contagion fears driven from the greater European sovereign debt risk. A sustained close beneath 1.3146 (Oct swing low) will re-establish the larger
BREAKOUT ZONE
(1.4000)
200-DMA (1.4094)
downtrend from April and target 1.3000 (psychological level), then 1.2870 (2011 major low). Expect resistance to cap at 1.3610 and 1.3730. Keep an eye on highly correlated risk-related proxies, such as the S&P500
UPTREND (2 YEARS)
and AUD/USD, which both continue to exhibit downside presssure. Inversely, the USD Index is maintaining its recovery higher and is fast
approaching the recent 9-month highs near 80, (a move worth almost 10%). Speculative (net long) liquidity flows have unwound from recent spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely remain strong and help resume the USDs major bull-run from its historic oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).
+27% +19%
+10%
SO FAR
9 MONTH HIGH
VIDEO
BREAKOUT ZONE
DEMARK BUY SIGNAL
MIG Bank Webinar: Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months. US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg
1 3
TRIGGER (15000)
COT LIQUIDITY
EXTREME NET US $ SHORT POSITIONS
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1.3480, Objs:1.3140/1.3000/1.2860, Stop: 1.3480
USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 2
GBP/USD
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 3
USD/JPY
USD/JPY (Daily 1 YEAR)
even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35 (PINL). Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying pressure remains overcrowded as everyone continues to try and be the first
82.00
to call the market bottom. This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic, price spike through
psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders,
80.24
which would create healthy price vacuum for a potential major reversal. The medium/long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a major long-term 40-year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection
PIR II
PIR III
points to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.
Please select the link below to review our special coverage on USD/JPY. Special Report: USDJPY Verging on a major 40 year cycle reversal Webinar: USD/JPYs Long-Term Structural Change Media Reports: CNBC
MONTHLY DEMARK BUY SIGNAL DEMARK BUY SIGNAL AHEAD OF NEW POST WWII LOW (75.35)
Bloomberg
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Buy Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426 4
USD/CHF
continue to rise, this will likely mark an acceleration of deterioration in the Euro Zone. USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Movement in USD/CHF is likely to be affected by EUR/CHF should the latter rate get closer to the 1.2130 region, which marks the lower end of the recent trading range.
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 5
USD/CAD
USD/CAD (Daily) USD/CAD (Weekly)
Sharp Setbacks.
USD/CAD has triggered a sharp setback, following a short-term DeMark exhaustion sell signal. A directional confirmation above 1.0658 is still needed to unlock the
200-DMA (0.9849)
recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the rates ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle. Only a sustained close beneath 1.0230 and parity unlocks bearish setbacks into the long-term 200-day MA at 0.9849 and 0.9726 (31 Aug low).
st
EUR/CAD has broken back beneath its 200-day MA, still within a large multi-month trading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June
swing high), which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.
REVERSAL PATTERN
CHF/CAD (Daily)
CHF/CAD is now retesting its 200-day MA at 1.1369, while maintaining a multi-week trading range. This follows the dramatic price slide lower (which was triggered by the SNB intervention). The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.
50%
200-DMA (1.3871)
(1.3570)
61.8% 50%
(1.3379)
(1.1488)
61.8%
(1.0893)
EUR/CAD (Daily)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting New Buy Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 6
AUD/USD
AUD/USD
(1 YEAR)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS
AUD/USD
(Weekly)
The bears must sustain below 1.0000 to further compound downside pressure on the rates multi-year uptrend and push back towards 0.9611.
3 YEAR UPTREND IS UNDER PRESSURE
38.2%
(0.9144)
50%
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains strong against the New Zealand dollar. However, near-term price activity is mean reverting back into the 200day MA. Expect a sharp setback to ensue over the multi-day horizon. The Aussie dollar has triggered a mild recovery against the Japanese yen and is now trading back above the neck-line of its two-year distribution pattern. Watch for further downside scope into support at 72.00 which would signal further unwinding of risk appetite.
(0.8546)
200-DMA (1.0405) 61.8%
13
38.2%
(76.70)
50%
200DMA (82.61)
(72.58)
61.8%
(68.47)
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Awaiting Renewed Sell Trade Setup.
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 7
GBP/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 120.25, Objs: 121.20/123.00/125.72, Stop: 119.30
www.migbank.com
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 8
EUR/JPY
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Await fresh signal.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 9
EUR/GBP
Bias remains bearish.
EUR/GBP continues to frustrate, failing to garner any momentum following the recent break of the key 0.8530/31 lows. Given the precarious situation in the Euro-Zone, our mild bearish bias remains, favouring an eventual return to weakness if core/periphery sovereign debt continues to be sold off. It is anticipated that if the deterioration in the Euro-Zone continues then Sterling could be viewed as a safe haven. Thus focus remains on the Italian and Spanish government bond markets too. An eventual fall back under 0.8486 is anticipated. With this in mind, the formulation of a short strategy is still favoured, although a deeper pullback of the 0.8831-0.8486 fall is required ahead of entry. EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP Our bias remains mildly bearish with trade continuing under both the 200 day and 50 week moving averages. We keep an eye on the 1.3146 level in EUR/USD. A push under this level will mark a clear breakdown of
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
Look to sell higher.
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 10
EUR/CHF
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424 11
GOLD
GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS
DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844
20% SO FAR
$1760 $1704
$160
34%
$153
BREAKOUT 200-DMA NOT BROKEN IN 3 YEARS!
A number of bargain hunting trend-followers will be watching this benchmark line in the sand for repeat support or a potential big squeeze lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Speculative (net long) flows also support this view having recently breached a key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold positions. This trigger a temporary, but dramatic setback that would ultimately offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.
26%
CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530 UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000 TREND CHANNEL
(12 YEARS)
Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage: Special Report Golds mountainous peak at riskbeneath $1600
COT NET LONG SPECULATOR POSITIONS
VIDEO
Bloomberg Countdown
25%
OVER 2 YEARS OF SIZEABLE LONG GOLD POSITIONS UNDER THREAT IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS
II
S-T TREND
L-T TREND
STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 1680, Obj:1595/1450/1300, Stop: 1740
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 12
SILVER
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! Silver (Daily)
DEMARK SELL SIGNALS DEMARK SELL SIGNAL
Silver is weakening back into 30.0000 and favours a test the previous swing low at 26.0700. Macro price structure continues to focus on the downside risks, following the major sell-off in September. Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This
II
allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed buying interest. Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the
38.2%
multi-week/month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8% Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silvers longterm uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual
(32.3135)
(26.9150)
resumption higher. Continue to watch the gold-silver mint ratio which has now accelerated
61.8%
higher by 70%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.
OVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold/Silver mint ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP
www.migbank.com
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454 13
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DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever. The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before making any investment decision. All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
Limitation of liability
MIG BANK disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
www.migbank.com
14
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