theSun | THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6 2008 21

INTERVIEWS VIEWS

politician who had never benefited from the
patronage of a political machine, he knew
how to operate on a shoestring. It was also
Obama’s good fortune that Bush’s eight-year
term proved such a disaster.
By opposing the Iraq war, well before
the 2003 invasion, Obama got on the right
side of history and sowed the seeds for
a robust but thoughtful foreign policy. “I
am not opposed to all wars. I am opposed
to dumb wars,” he said in autumn 2002,
a position which enabled him to outflank
even Republicans by calling for stepped-up
military action in Afghanistan and even
against al-Qaeda inside Pakistan.
None of this seemed decisive, however,
when all six Democratic candidates rolled
into Des Moines, Iowa, on a bitterly cold
night early last November to attend the
Jefferson Jackson Dinner. The national
media was mostly absent as 9,000 raucous
supporters – most wearing Obama’s
“Change” T-shirts, packed a boxing arena
to watch Democratic big shots arrayed
around a centre stage tuck into dinner. The
Clinton campaign dismissed the enthusiasm
of the youthful Obama fans, saying they
had all been bussed in from Chicago for the
night. It was a fateful error of judgment, by
a campaign that already reeked of a sense
of entitlement. Because the “JJ dinner” as
Democratic insiders call it, would turn out
to be a game-changer.
The first five would-be candidates rattled
through their stump speeches. Obama was
last to speak. Deadlines had already passed
for television news and most newspapers.
People were already leaving the hall. But
the first-term Senator from Illinois sprinted
on to the stage and gave a barnstorming
speech. His supporters were delighted,
but crucially, so were potential big-money
backers, who saw for the first time that he
could throw a punch.
The Iraq war, “should have never been
authorised and should have never been
waged,” Obama said. “We have a chance
to bring the country together to tackle
problems that Bush made far worse, and
that festered long before he took office.”
That was an implied criticism of Bill
Clinton, then still revered by most of the
party, but his next words dealt a stinging
blow to Mrs Clinton’s candidacy.
“When I am the nominee of this party,”
said Obama, “the Republican nominee
will not be able to say I voted for the war
in Iraq, or that I gave Bush the benefit of
the doubt on Iran, or that I support Bush-
Cheney policies of not talking to leaders
that we don’t like.” The only headline
that mattered next day was in the Des
Moines Register. David Yepsen, the paper’s
influential political editor, lavished praise
on his speech and predicted an instant
buzz across Iowa, where the first contest
of the 2008 election would be held in eight
weeks. “Should he come from behind to win Hampshire, setting the scene for a long and of the campaign, naming Alaska’s governor
the Iowa caucuses,” he wrote, “Saturday’s bruising campaign that went on for almost Sarah Palin as his running-mate, stole all
dinner will be remembered as one of the six months, he was not fazed. When his the thunder. As the presidential debates
turning-points in his campaign here.” controversial pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah loomed, one poll gave McCain a five-point
A month later, 18,000 people gave up Wright, was exposed as a virulent anti-white lead. It was a margin he was not to enjoy
their Saturday afternoon to drive through demagogue, he delivered what many said again. The sudden crisis that engulfed the
the snow and ice to Des Moines to watch was the most historically sophisticated speech financial markets dealt a fatal one-two to
Oprah Winfrey endorse the Obama bid and on race relations since the death of Martin the Republican campaign. It reinforced the
listen to hours of political rhetoric. Luther King. point Obama had been making all year:
As David Broder, the veteran political Some of the mishaps were of his own that the decisions of the Bush and Clinton
writer of The Washington Post wrote this making. Condescending remarks he made administrations to remove regulatory
week, “In the eight Iowa caucus campaigns about working class white voters “clinging oversight from Wall Street had led directly to
I’d covered over four decades, I’d never seen to guns and religion” were a gift to his the sub-prime mortgage crisis.
anything like this. In fact I’d not seen votersopponents, and even though he secured The second blow was self-inflicted.
so turned on since my first campaign as a the Democratic nomination, he was polling McCain’s claim that the US economy was
political reporter, the classic Kennedy-Nixon 20 and 30 percentage points behind John “fundamentally sound” made him a laughing-
race of 1960.” McCain in must-win states like Ohio. stock; worse, with the economy going
McCain’s campaign through convulsions, working class white
In the eight Iowa caucus campaigns I’d covered was not slow to sow voters, some 45 per cent of the electorate,
over four decades, I’d never seen anything like doubt about the first began to reappraise their rejection of Obama
black major-party and look past their prejudices.
this. In fact I’d not seen voters so turned on since candidate for president, At his final Virginia rally, grieving for
my first campaign as a political reporter, the classic with millions of so- the grandmother who raised him, and who
Kennedy-Nixon race of 1960.” called robocalls telling had died that morning, Obama reflected on
targeted voters that the harsh attacks he had endured on the
Obama has never been short of ambition, like Osama, he had plotted with a domestic campaign trail. He described a grim journey
but as recently as 2004 he was unknown terrorist, Bill Ayers, who tried to bomb the he made to South Carolina, looking for an
outside Illinois. Although by then he had Pentagon. In fact he had served on the board endorsement at a time when his campaign
spent eight years in the state senate, a brash of an education charity with Ayers, who was floundering. While he was introducing
attempt to win a safe Democratic seat in later became a Chicago University education himself, a small woman began interrupting
Congress ended in humiliation when he professor, but the smears had some impact. with the chant, “Fired Up!” followed a
was badly beaten by a former Black Panther Obama’s most grievous error followed moment later with “Ready To Go!” It lifted his
named Bobby Rush. He was still teaching at Russia’s invasion of Georgia in August, which mood that day and became the catch cry of
the University of Chicago Law School, and McCain exploited ruthlessly. Obama’s failure the campaign.
was up to his neck in student loans which to condemn Russia’s action – he blamed both “That’s how this thing started,” he said,
he only managed to pay off in 2006. sides for the invasion – reminded voters of “It shows you what one voice can do. One
But John Kerry had spotted the urbane Hillary Clinton’s famous “3am phone call” voice can change a room, and if a voice can
young politician during his doomed advertisement in which she warned that change a room it can change a city, and if it
presidential campaign against Bush, and Obama was not ready for leadership. The can change a city, it can change a state, and
asked Obama to give the keynote address polls turned in McCain’s favour for the first if it can change a state it can change a nation,
at the 2004 Democratic Convention. His time in the race. and if it can change a nation, it can change
oratory not only helped revive a party which McCain’s decision to play the wildest card the world.” – The Independent
at the time was directionless and adrift, it
swept him into the US Senate the same year,
where he soon began positioning himself for
a run for the presidency.
To Clinton’s backers – and not only to
them – it seemed ludicrously presumptuous.
But in Iowa they discovered their mistake.
While she was flying an expensive
“Hillacopter” around the state, Obama and
his team logged tens of thousands of miles
persuading rural white Iowans to back him.
Through word of mouth and the efforts of
his devoted followers, he won a state that is
95 per cent white.
And while Clinton depended on friends
in the establishment to help her through the
election, Obama was busy building a grass-
roots movement. He turned to the Internet
to raise money and used the explosion of
online social networking tools to sign up
and motivate an army of volunteers.
Time and again during the primaries,
and the election campaign, that followed,
Obama showed his coolness under fire.
When Clinton snatched victory in New

lived beyond its means. This If the country as a whole has

ahead
new president can wave to
magic this situation away. We
are where we are. One of the
problems he faces will be the
expectation that a new admin-
istration can make a swift and
material difference to economic
prospects. Policies can be help-
ful or perverse and had the US
banking system been allowed to
collapse that would have been
profoundly perverse. But even
helpful policies take time to
have effect.
Fortunately, economies are
self-healing. While 2009 does
look very difficult for the US
economy, with most predictions
suggesting it will shrink overall,
there are solid hopes for a re-
covery in 2010. At some stage
US house prices will bottom out
and start to rise again, and at
some stage the banks will be
recapitalised and confident to
resume lending. There will be a
recovery and it will take place
during the life of the incoming
administration.
But there is something else.
For the past 15 or so years the
US economy has increasingly
shows up in the huge current
account deficit, the largest pro-
portionately and of course ab-
solutely, of any large economy.
It shows up too in a large fiscal
deficit. It shows up in very low
US household savings, which
are at or close to zero.
The US has been able to run
the “borrow and borrow big”
policy because other countries
have been prepared to lend to
it. Rationally it is bizarre that
the world’s biggest economy,
and the one with just about
the highest standard of living,
should have to borrow to keep
itself going. Strategically it has
been unwise to borrow so much
from economic rivals such as
China and somewhat unstable
partners in the Middle East,
because sooner or later these
loans have to be paid back.
Besides, it makes no long-
term sense to use loans from
China to fill the shopping malls
with cheap tat. The US con-
sumer ends up with rubbishy
consumer products and the US
ends up with huge obligations,
giving China the opportunity to
buy up real assets – land, of-
fice blocks, companies and so
on – that had previously been
owned by Americans.
been unwise so too have many
individuals within it. One of the
startling revelations of the past
few months is the way in which
Americans with no income, no
assets and no credit record have
been able to borrow money.
Those loans are now going sour
and you can argue whether this
was principally the fault of the
borrower or the lender. You
cannot however argue that it is
a great idea for families not to
have any savings.
You can talk about this in
terms of economic numbers,
that in the US the proportion
of GDP that is consumed rather
than invested is too high at 70
per cent. But it is not just an
economic issue; it is a social is-
sue. It is a question of whether
you depend on others or do you
depend on yourself.
So the challenge facing the
44th president is to explain to
Americans that the country
needs to become less dependent
on others for physical resources
and more importantly financial
resources. It needs to get saving
again. The US economy remains
huge, flexible and powerful.
But it has undermined its own
strength by its self-indulgence.
– The Independent