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Mb0040 Statistics For Management
Mb0040 Statistics For Management
Assignment I
1.
Appropriate Situations for the use of Various Averages 1) a) b) c) d) 2) Arithmetic mean is used when: In depth study of the variable is needed The variable is continuous and additive in nature The data are in the interval or ratio scale When the distribution is symmetrical
Median is used when: a) The variable is discrete b) There exists abnormal values c) The distribution is skewed d) The extreme values are missing e) The characteristics studied are qualitative 1
f) 3)
Mode is used when: a) The variable is discrete b) There exists abnormal values c) The distribution is skewed d) The extreme values are missing e) The characteristics studied are qualitative Geometric mean is used when: a) The rate of growth, ratios and percentages are to be studied b) The variable is of multiplicative nature Harmonic mean is used when: a) The study is related to speed, time b) Average of rates which produce equal effects has to be found
4)
5)
2. Calculate the 3 yearly and 5 yearly averages of the data in table below. Table 1: Production data from 1988 to 1997
Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Productio 15 18 16 22 19 24 20 28 22 30 n (in Lakh ton)
Solution: The below tables displays the calculated values of 3 yearly and 5 yearly averages
Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Year 1988 1989 Values 15 18 16 22 19 24 20 28 22 30 Values 15 18 Total 49 56 57 65 63 72 70 80 3 Yearly Moving Average 16.33 18.67 19 21.67 21 24 23.33 26.67 -
16 22 19 24 20 28 22 30
3. (a) what is meant by secular trend? Discuss any two methods of isolating trend values in a time series?
A secular trend is one that will is sustained (or is expected to be sustained) over the long term. The term is most often used to distinguish underlying long-term trends from seasonal variations and the effects of economic cycles. There are many techniques for separating out secular trends from seasonal, and other, variations in historical data. These range from simple year on year comparisons to complex econometric models. Secular trends are obviously what matter to investors, but investors need to look beyond historical trends, or even short term forecasts, and consider the long term sustainability of trends.
3. (b) what is seasonal variation of a time series? Describe the various methods you know to evaluate it and examine their relative merits?
A secular trend is one that will is sustained (or is expected to be sustained) over the long term. The term is most often used to distinguish underlying long-term trends from seasonal variations and the effects of economic cycles. There are many techniques for separating out secular trends from seasonal, and other, variations in historical data. These range from simple year on year comparisons to complex econometric models. Secular trends are obviously what matter to investors, but investors need to look beyond historical trends, or even short term forecasts, and consider the long term sustainability of trends.
4. The probability that a contractor will get an electrical job is 0.8, he will get a plumbing job is 0.6 and he will get both 0.48. What is the probability that he get at least one? Is the probabilities of getting electrical and plumbing job are independent?
Probability of getting Electrical Job, P (A) = 0.8 3
Probability of getting Plumbing Job, P (B) = 0.6 Probability of getting both, P(A B) = 0.48 i.e. P(A B) = P(A) * P(B)
Probability of getting at least one Job is P (A U B) = P (A) + P(B) - P(A B) 0.8 + 0.6 0.48 = 0.92 The Probability of getting Electrical and Plumbing Job are Independent.
Quota sampling is a method for selecting survey participants. In quota sampling, a population is first segmented into mutually exclusive sub-groups, just as in stratified sampling. Then judgment is used to select the subjects or units from each segment based on a specified proportion. For example, an interviewer may be told to sample 200 females and 300 males between the age of 45 and 60. This means that individuals can put a demand on who they want to sample (targeting). This second step makes the technique non-probability sampling. In quota sampling, the selection of the sample is non-random sample and can be unreliable. For example, interviewers might be tempted to interview those people in the street who look most helpful, or may choose to use accidental sampling to question those closest to them, for time-keeping sake. The problem is that these samples may be biased because not everyone gets a chance of selection. This non-random element is a source of uncertainty about the nature of the actual sample and quota versus probability has been a matter of controversy for many years. Quota sampling is useful when time is limited, a sampling frame is not available, the research budget is very tight or when detailed accuracy is not important. Subsets are chosen and then either convenience or judgment sampling is used to choose people from each subset. The researcher decides how many of each category is selected. Quota sampling is the non probability version of stratified sampling. In stratified sampling, subsets of the population are created so that each subset has a common characteristic, such as gender. Random sampling chooses a number of subjects from each subset with, unlike a quota sample, each potential subject having a known probability of being selected.
Analysis of variance is useful in such situations as comparing the mileage achieved by five different brands of gasoline, testing which of four different training methods produce the fastest learning record, or comparing the first-year earnings of the graduates of half a dozen different business schools. In each of these cases, we would compare the means of more than two samples. Hence, in most of the fields, such as agriculture, medical, finance, banking, insurance, education, the concept of Analysis Of Variance (ANOVA) is used. In statistical terms, the difference between two statistical data is known as variance. When two data are compared for any practical purpose, their difference is studied through the techniques of ANOVA. With the analysis of variance technique, we can test the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. Null hypothesis, H0: All sample means are equal. Alternate Hypothesis, HA: all sample means are not equal or at least one of sample means differ. Initially the technique was applied in the field of Zoology and Agriculture, but in a later stage, it was applied to other fields also. In analysis of variance, the degree of variance between two or more data as well as the factors contributing towards the variance is studied. In fact, Analysis of Variance is the classification and cross-classification of statistical data with the view of testing whether the means of specific classification differ significantly or whether they are homogeneous. The Analysis of Variance is a method of splitting the total variation of data into constituent parts which measure different sources of variations. The total variation is split up into the following two-components. a) Variance within the subgroups of samples b) Variation between the subgroups of the samples c) Hence, the total variance is the sum of variance between the samples and the variance within the samples. After obtaining the above two variations, these are tested for their significance by F-test which is also known as variance ratio test.