SPECIAL REPORT

A DYNASTY AT CROSSROADS
Italian-born Sonia Gandhi heads the family that has dominated Indian politics since independence from Britain in 1947. Her return from surgery in the United States for an undisclosed illness has stoked speculation she may be making way for her uninspiring son Rahul. Could the end be near for the Nehru-Gandhi family dynasty?

SEPTEMBER 2011

FALTERING DYNASTY

SEPTEMBER 2011

By Paul de Bendern and alistair scrutton

NEW DELHI, SEPT 27

NEHRU-GANDHI DYNASTY
(1889 - 1964) Indias first prime minister from 1947 to 1964

AHUL Gandhi, heir to the family dynasty that has dominated politics in the worlds biggest democracy for generations, was trying to make himself heard in the uproar of Indias parliament. Looking nervous, he read haltingly from a prepared statement, criticizing as antidemocratic a popular anti-corruption campaign led by activist Anna Hazare, whose hunger strike was aimed at getting parliament to adopt a tough anti-graft bill. With his voice drowning in the din of a chamber where members are prone to storm out in fury if they dont like what theyre hearing, senior members of his Congress party beseeched him to go on, go on with an address that was being televised live. Rahul later called his speech a game changer in the fight against corruption. Many thought he was deluded -- the government backed down on Hazares demands to end his fast. Weeks before, his mother and Congress party leader, an ailing Sonia Gandhi, had handed over power to a quartet of party leaders that included Rahul. But his long silence had irked Indians. Congress needed him to give the speech of his life. As Rahul floundered, his younger sister Priyanka watched from the visitors gallery. She was wearing a sari and her short black hair was swept back like her grandmother, assassinated Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, a style not lost on many Indians who thought she, not Rahul, should have been the one standing before parliament. Nothing like the Gandhi family political franchise exists in the world today. A member of the family has essentially run India for twothirds of the period since independence from Britain in 1947, melding the right to rule of an English monarch with the tragic glamour of the Kennedy clan. Italian-born Sonia Gandhi, 64, has since returned to India, after five weeks for surgery in the United States for an undisclosed illness. The India media says she underwent treatment at New Yorks Sloan-Kettering Cancer Centre. Her sons apparent ascendancy, and uncertain leadership qualities, have raised questions about whether a family political dynasty is compatible with a modern democracy and a country carrying increased economic and diplomatic clout. Congress itself is a party in decline. Its post-World War Two vision of democratic socialism to uplift the rural masses, with big

Jawaharlal Nehru

Married 1916

Kamala Nehru
(1889 - 1936)

Indira Gandhi

(1917 - 1984) First female prime minister (1966 - 77, 1980 - 84). Assassinated by her bodyguards

Married 1942

Feroze Gandhi
(1912 - 1960) Indian politician and journalist

Married 1968

Married 1974

Sonia Gandhi

Rajiv Gandhi

(b. 1946) Head of Congress party 1998

(1944 - 1991) Prime minister (1984-89) Killed by a suicide bomber in 1991

Sanjay Gandhi
(1946 - 1980) Congress party member. Died in plane crash

Maneka Gandhi

(b. 1956) Environmentalist, animal rights activist

Married 1997

Robert Vadra

(b. 1969) Businessman

Priyanka Vadra

(b. 1970) (b. 1972) General Joins Congress secretary of Congress, 2007 in 2004

Rahul Gandhi

Varun Gandhi
(b. 1980) Joins Bharatiya Janata Party in 2004

Raihan Vadra

Miraya Vadra

Photos: Reuters Source: news reports

state-run companies and their public sector unions dominating the economy, is looking shopworn in a modern India where a dynamic private sector is propelling growth. While Congress began reforms in the 1990s that have helped lead to an economic boom, Graphic INDIA-GANDHI/ its share of the vote has steadily fallen over Story INDIA-GANDHI/ the years as regional parties get stronger.

Size Artist

10 x 16.5 cm Kinyen Pong

Sonia helped Congress win the last two general elections, but the party faces a more problematic challenge in the next one due in 2014, as a rising urban middle class, fed up with endemic corruption and poor governance, flexes its muscles. Date 07 / 09 / 11 Interviews with Congress party officials Reporter EDREF and family friends, some of whom have

Research K. Pong Code POL

Copyright Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. http://thomsonreuters.com/products_services/media/media_products/graphics/

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SEPTEMBER 2011

talked to the media for the first time, reveal deep concerns about the future of the Gandhi dynasty. Doubts are being expressed in New Delhis corridors of power, among businessmen in the financial capital Mumbai, by swathes of the poor who feel left out by a decade-long economic boom, and by a middle class angry at the unchecked corruption that annual growth of around 8 percent has brought. This modern India no longer holds the Gandhi family in the same reverential awe; their tragedies that so traumatised the nation now fading with time. I think the whole idea of a dynasty negates merit, said Arun Jaitley, a senior leader of the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party. The real worth of Indias democracy will be realised only when the charisma of so-called dynasties is smashed. Aspirations are changing, people are becoming very harsh judges, things are changing for the better in India. Rahul is putting his leadership credentials to the test by leading the Congress campaign for local elections next year in Uttar Pradesh, a poor and caste-ridden state with 200 million people, equivalent to the worlds fifthmost populous country and considered a political barometer for India as a whole. Congress finished a poor fourth in the last state assembly elections there in 2007.

IN THE NAME OF THE FAMILY

ITS NOT A QUESTION OF WHETHER HE WILL PERFORM OR HAS THE ABILITY. HE WILL COME ON BOARD

A RELUCTANT LEADER A teenage Rahul Gandhi once told his father, the prime minister from 1984 to 1989, he wished they could go back to happier days when Rajiv Gandhi was a pilot with Indian Airlines and had no political aspirations. I cant now, because now I have a belief in my people. There is no going back, former Cabinet minister and family confidante Mani Shankar Aiyar recalled Rajiv Gandhi as telling his son. That, said Aiyar at one of those leafy British colonial homes in New Delhi reserved for Indias senior politicians, is the ethos of these kids growing up. Rahul is the great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indias first prime minister and independence hero. His grandmother and Nehrus only child, Indira Gandhi, was shot by her Sikh bodyguards. His worst fears were realised when his father was assassinated by a Tamil suicide-bomber in 1991 on the campaign trail. Rahul, who did not respond to an interview request, may understandably be reluctant to take his spot in this pantheon, but his destiny and duty, his dharma, is written, as far as Congress is concerned. Its not a question of whether he will perform or has the ability. He will come on board, a senior Congress party insider said. There may be rumblings (within Congress) but there are always rumblings. There were rumblings with Indira, with Sonia.
Photos from the top: Sonia and Rahul Gandhi wave to crowds in Rae Bareli, back in 2008. Rahul with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at a public meet in Bundelkhand region in northern India, April, 2011, and with his sister Priyanka in Rae Bareli, back in 2006. REUTERS/Pawan Kumar

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TIMELINE
1947 - Jawaharlal Nehru is elected by the Indian National Congress as the first prime minister of independent India. 1964 - Nehru dies after 17 years as prime minister. His only child, Indira Gandhi, joins cabinet 1966 - Indira Gandhi becomes the first woman to hold prime ministers office in India 1975 - Following public unrest after a high court finds Indira Gandhi guilty of electoral corruption, she declares a state of emergency on June 25. 1977 - Indira Gandhi loses election to coalition led by Janata Party, comprising nearly all of Indiras opponents. 1980 - Indira Gandhi returns for her fourth term as prime minister as Congress wins elections with a landslide. 1984 - Indira Gandhi is assassinated by two of her Sikh bodyguards after Indian army attacks militants holed up in Golden Temple. 1984 - Following the death of his younger brother Sanjay Gandhi in 1980 and mothers assassination, Rajiv Gandhi reluctantly takes the prime ministers job at the age of 40. 1989 - A corruption scandal surrounding an arms deal taints image of Rajiv Gandhi, resulting in Congresss defeat in the 1989 elections. 1991 - Still holding post of Congress President, Rajiv Gandhi is assassinated by Tamil Tiger suicide bomber. He is survived by his widow Sonia and a son, Rahul, and daughter Priyanka. 1998 - Rajiv Gandhis widow Sonia Gandhi elected as the president of the struggling Congress party. 1999 - Sonia Gandhi defeated by Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party in general election. 2004 - Sonia Gandhi leads Congress to victory election. She appoints former finance minister Manmohan Singh as prime minister. Her oldest child Rahul Gandhi elected to parliament for first time. 2007 - Rahul Gandhi is appointed as a general secretary to the Congress party in charge of the Indian Youth Congress. 2009 - Under Sonia Gandhis guidance, the Congress-led government is re-elected with Manmohan Singh as prime minister. 2011 - Congress head Sonia Gandhi returns to New Delhi on September 8 after a month in the United States where she underwent

FAMILY MATTERS: Sonia and Rahul Gandhi walk at Rajiv Gandhis memorial in New Delhi on the occasion of the former prime ministers 18th death anniversary, May 21, 2009. REUTERS/B Mathur

Rahul appears to be in search of an image in a country that expects its politicians to be larger than life -- movie stars are frequent election candidates, for instance -- to galvanise the poor majority who eke out lives of subsistence and misery. Sonia is not intellectually brilliant, but she has tenacity. Shes stuck it out, said a source close to the Gandhi family. Rahul may be genuine. But he is really just a very average guy. Rahul, a bachelor, does seem nice. Even his detractors say he is genuine, committed to grassroots politics. When a newly arrived Reuters correspondent met him at a business conference, he seemed more concerned about the spouse and children of a visiting foreigner than talking shop. In 2007, U.S. diplomats noted the skepticism about Rahul in diplomatic cables released by the Wikileaks website (wikileaks.org) Veteran politics watchers cannot explain Rahuls apparent missteps, while Congress insiders complain that he is a neophyte who does not have what it takes to become Prime Minister, an April 2007 cable said. Family sources say he is underestimated, his reticence stemming from being a highly-educated man who has studied and worked abroad and is aware of the history on his shoulders. Hes quite intelligent and bright, but he keeps his thoughts shrouded, said a close Delhi-based friend of Rahul. Remember one thing. Rahul is an amazing chess player. Like any game of chess its about who wins, why and the tactics. Rahul has refused government jobs, preferring to rebuild the Congress youth wing, seen as crucial for the long-term

OUR FAMILIES FOR GENERATIONS HAVE BEEN VOTING FOR CONGRESS. BUT NOW IT HAS BECOME A FAMILY PARTY AND SLOWLY ITS VOTE MAGIC IS FADING AWAY
survival of a party that relies on a rural vote bank, but which is run by members now at retirement age. Congress officials say Rahul just needs time. When Rajiv was thrust into the leadership of the party and running the government after the death of his younger but more politically astute brother Sanjay in a plane crash, he also faced opposition from party veterans who stymied reform initiatives. Congress will survive, they say, as it has before. Its like a willow tree, said Aiyar. It may bend but it wont break. But the party is no longer the dominant force it was for so many years. When Rajiv Gandhi first became prime minister in 1984, Congress had a two-thirds majority in parliament. Now it is a minority in parliament, dependent on querulous coalition partners, and most states are in the hands of regional parties or the opposition.

surgery for an undisclosed ailment.

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FAMILY HISTORY: An employee cleans a portrait of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi inside the Swaraj Bhawan museum, and (right) an official shows a book with pictures of Indias first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira, her husband Feroz Gandhi and their son Rajiv at the Anand Bhawan museum, both in Allahabad, September 8, 2011. REUTERS/Jitendra Prakash

Indias traditional caste and religion-based politics, while still a key factor in winning elections, is becoming less relevant to a growing urban middle class, who are also less in awe of a famous surname. GRASSROOTS RUMBLING Rahul Gandhis home constituency of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh has long been the seat of power for the Nehru-Gandhi family. As in much of India, modernity here is seeping into this small town of 12,000 in fits and starts and the family franchise is fading. Posters depicting the Gandhi trio of Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka are overwhelmed by images of Hindu gods and advertisements for mobile phone operators on the streets. A dusty statue of Rajiv Gandhi at the city centre is about the only monument to the dynasty. Disillusionment has set in among the youth here who are hard-pressed to find jobs in offices and factories and are disinclined to toil in the fields like their parents, the traditional vote bank of Congress. Our families for generations have been voting for Congress. They had faith in the party, said Mahi Khan, a 23-year-old arts student, dressed in sports shoes and a pink designer t-shirt. But now it has become a family party and slowly its vote magic is fading away. The disgruntlement can also be felt in nearby Rae Bareli constituency, another family bastion once represented by Indira and now by Sonia Gandhi. During Indiras rule, Indian Telephone Industries employed

Highlights of an Indian dynasty:

http://link.reuters.com/nur93s

Even Rahul has been criticized for putting forward young candidates from rich families or with famous names for parliament. They come from well-known families. Apart from a few smart ones, many make parliament look like a college cafeteria, sniffed one senior opposition party member. HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF When Sonia joined Congress in 1998 after a seven-year absence from politics following Rajivs death, she faced a rebellion from Congress veterans worried about her Italian origins. She had met Rajiv as a language student at Cambridge. Nevertheless, she was named party leader. Congress promptly lost the 1999 general election in one of its worst electoral performances to date to the Hindunationalists Bharatiya Janata Party. Since then, she has consolidated power, her popularity and mystique growing when she turned down the prime ministers job after Congresss 2004 election win and appointing reformist technocrat Manmohan Singh to the job instead. For visiting dignitaries, her heavily-guarded mansion in the wealthy centre of New Delhi is the place to be, not the Prime Ministers office in South Block on the site of the old British Viceroys mansion. Forbes magazine this month named her the seventh most powerful woman in the world, ahead of IMF managing director Christine Lagarde. At meetings, she may take down notes, but usually says little, her serious expression
5

more than 12,000 people here. Today, most factories have closed or shifted elsewhere. There has been no development in the city. Gandhi family members are winning on their names, said Santosh Atlanti, 34, as his mother nudged him to keep quiet. Even we had been voting for Sonia so far, but this time we need to think. The Atlanti family owns three shops along the main road amounting to some 35-40 votes, he said. That should count for something. The office of Sonia Gandhi is in front of my house but we cannot see her face to face, the way I am talking to you, he added. Meeting her personally is beyond question as the security is so tight. These rumblings of discontent may be one reason why Rahul is focusing on young voters, touring schools and universities. He tried that in state elections in neighboring Bihar state last year, however, with little success. Rahuls thinking is very good and the youth relate to that, said youth leader Rahul Bajpai in Sonias constituency. But many fossil-like seniors in the party do not want smart and clever youngsters to take prominent places in the party.

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TRUMP CARD? Priyanka Gandhi waves to her supporters during an election campaign meeting for her mother Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli district, April 22, 2009.. REUTERS/B Mathur

only occasionally breaking into a smile, party workers say. She is a loner, said Rasheed Kidwai, author of a biography on Sonia Gandhi. Her children are her closest advisers. An art exhibition for renowned artist Anish Kapoor in New Delhi last year highlighted her almost regal isolation. A museum official told guests they would be able to see Sonia on a large TV screen while Kapoor escorted her around the exhibits. Delhis elegantly dressed elite were only allowed in once Sonia had left. No pictures of Sonia have been published since she returned from her operation and she has yet to make a public appearance, though she has met party leaders and coalition partners in private over the past few days. The Gandhi family and the Congress party have handled her illness as a personal matter requiring no public explanation. As Congress leader, she has quietly squelched dissent and sidelined political rivals. With 79-year-old Manmohan Singh expected to leave office by 2014, Congress now has almost no candidates to replace him apart from Rahul. When Rahul visited Uttar Pradesh to mediate over a high-profile land dispute earlier this year, Sonia ordered no other party figures to follow him. That happens often on his trips, Congress sources said. Sonias failure to ensure meritocracy in the party may be fatal in modern India, said Inder Malhotra, a journalist and author on the Gandhis. That may have worked fine in her first term from 2004 to 2009 as she consolidated

power in the party. But with the government floundering in the face of corruption scandals, the economy slowing and reforms stuttering to a halt, Congress is searching for leadership. One senior Congress official acknowledged Sonia has made some mistakes, including approving the appointments of officials now under investigation for corruption. Others say her aloof leadership style is holding back progress. Mrs. Gandhi never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, said one U.S. diplomatic cable in November 2007 published by Wikileaks. PRIYANKA A WILD CARD? With Sonia seriously ill and her son struggling to measure up to the high expectations of a family scion, many Congress party eyes are turning in the direction of the 39-year-old Priyanka, who many think resembles her steely-willed grandmother Indira Gandhi, known as Indias iron lady. Priyanka has 50 percent of Indiras qualities. She has quick decision power, whereas Sonia and Rahul dilly-dally, said 87-year-old Uma Shankar Mishra, a senior party official in Rae Bareli. Apart from counseling her mother and taking part in election campaigns, the mother of two has avoided politics. In public, Priyanka wears saris like her mother and grandmother, but in private she prefers wears jeans or skirts, the image of a modern mother. I think Priyanka is very knowledgeable about politics, said Aiyar, the family friend. Remember, there was no person more nonpolitical than her mother in the early days. But

she learnt. Her imitation (of Indira) does not lie just in her hairstyle. It is more profound. Her ascension remains unlikely as Rahuls younger sister. While Indira chose her younger son Sanjay over Rajiv, few think Sonia would ignore Italian and Indian tradition and bypass the older son. The deeper worry is that neither Priyanka nor Rahul will be able to control a political system that demands strong national figures to keep fractious coalitions together. Congress also faces charismatic opposition leaders who have risen without a family name, such as the BJPs controversial chief minister in Gujarat state, Narendra Modi. I think Rahul can deal with the Congress party. The loyalty is there, said biographer Kidwai. Its the second part that is tricky, dealing with crafty political allies. The future of the family dynasty, along with the fortunes of Congress, may well rest with how Rahul plays the political end-game in this chess match. The Gandhi family is the bonding adhesive of Congress. The minute the family is not there, the party will begin to fall apart, said Aiyar. As Rahul walked out from parliament that August day, reporters asked why he had taken so long to respond to the Hazare hunger strike and the anti-corruption protests it had inspired. I tell you why, Rahul replied. Because I like to think about things and then decide about things. He may be running out of time to do that. Additional reporting by Alka Pande in LUCKNOW, Annie Banerji and Arup Roychoudhury; Paul de Bendern reported from AMETHI Editing by Bill Tarrant

COVER PHOTO: (R-L) Chief of Indias Congress party Sonia Gandhi, her daughter Priyanka Vadera, son-in-law Robert Vadera, and son Rahul Gandhi, walk at Rajiv Gandhis memorial in New Delhi on the occasion of the former prime ministers 18th death anniversary, May 21, 2009. REUTERS/ B Mathur

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